FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

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Teddy Covers

Tampa Bay -115

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BEN BURNS

FRIDAY NIGHT MAIN EVENT

I'm taking the points with MEMPHIS. These teams have a history as they used to be rivals in Conference USA before Louisville moved to the Big East. Looking at their last eight meetings and we find that only one resulted in Louisville winning by more than a touchdown and that six of those meetings were decided by seven points or less. In fact, those six games were decided by just 3.5 points per game. With both teams having seen their most recent game having been decided by five points or less, tonight's game could well come down to the wire once again. Memphis has been finding a way to win of late. After having lost their first three games (two of the losses came by a combined eight points) the Tigers have now won three straight games. That gives them some momentum and confidence heading into tonight's game. Memphis junior quarterback Arkelon Hall noted: "We've kind of got our swagger back. We've got our groove back. Now we've just got to keep it going." Indeed, the Tigers are averaging a whopping 462.7 yards per game and are an impressive 23-for-26 in the red zone. In three home games, they've outgained opponents by an average margin of 476-315. Speaking of Hall, he's already thrown for 1,456 yards with eight touchdowns. Note that the Tigers rank second in CUSA with 14 quarterback sacks and they've only allowed seven. Louisville has also played well and the Cardinals do have the advantage of coming off a bye week. However, they lost a heart-breaker before the break and this will be their first road game of the entire season. Note that the Cardinals were just 2-4 on the road last year and that only one of those six games resulted in a victory of greater than four points. Looking back further and we find them at 7-11 ATS their last 18 games away from home. That includes a 0-2 SU/ATS mark when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. The Cardinals were just 1-6 ATS in October the past two seasons and the lone cover was a win by only four points. Look for them to have their hands full with a scrappy Memphis team. *Main Event

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Dr Bob

Louisville (-6.0) 32 MEMPHIS 24

Louisville’s offense has blossomed the last 3 games (6.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) after really struggling in their opener against Kentucky (just 2.9 yppl an zero points). I expect Louisville’s offense to continue to play well tonight against a porous Memphis defense that’s given up 6.4 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Memphis has made up for their bad defense with a pretty good offense that has been 0.2 yppl better than average this season (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) but the Cardinals are good defensively (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defense), so the Tigers will probably not be able to put together too many long drives. My math model favors Louisville by 7½ points, so I’ll lean with the Cardinals.

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Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections

MISMATCH BLOWOUT BOMBER OF THE MONTH
Louisville -6.5

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Marc Lawrence

Double-Dime Bet

Memphis +6.0 vs Louisville

The Tigers host the Cardinals in a Conference USA clash Friday night with revenge on their minds from a 56-49 loss the last time these two teams met in 2004.  For Memphis they have played much better than its 3-3 record would indicate as they've outgained five of their six opponents on the playing field.  Meanwhile Louisville checks in off a revenge loss at home against Connecticut.  With Memphis head coach Tommy West 6-0 ATS in his college head coaching career as a home dog in games after his team scored 30 or more points in its last game, look for the Tigers to improve to 10-1 ATS as a dog in this series here tonight.  Grab the points with Memphis.

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Dr Baseball Guaranteed Selections

GRAND SLAM NLCS WINNER
LA DODGERS W/Billingsley -110

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Steven Budin-CEO

25 DIME PLAY

TAMPA BAY RAYS

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Oscarxena Sports

NHL

Florida/Carolina Over 6 +1.37 (3 Unit Play)

Chicago +1.33 (3 Unit Play)

St. Louis -1.04 (3 Unit Play)

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Opposite Action Plays

Phillies

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Sunday Selections/Bob Balfe

Memphis

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LT Profits

Fkorida Panthers

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Mike Lineback

Tampa Bay Rays

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Mike Rose

Red Sox / D'Rays Over 8

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Alex Smart    

Louisville / Memphis Over

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Matty O'Shea

PHI (-102) vs LOS

Dime Bet

The home team has now won all nine meetings between the Phillies and Dodgers this year following a 3-2 victory for Philadelphia in Game 1 of the NLCS on Thursday.  Brett Myers pitched very well for the Phillies at home during the regular season, going 7-5 with a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts.  Myers also was very solid in Game 2  of the NLDS against Milwaukee's C.C. Sabathia last Thursday, giving up two runs and two hits in seven innings of a 5-2 win.  He has enjoyed success against the Dodgers as well with a lifetime mark of 4-2 to go along with a 2.61 ERA.  LA's Chad Billingsley has a 4.00 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies and was just 6-6 on the road during the regular season.  Bet Philadelphia to go up 2-0 in this series with another win as my Single Dime NLCS Side Play O' the Day.


TAM (-115) vs BOS

Double-Dime Bet

Tampa Bay's James Shields has been sensational pitching at home this season, and the Rays are 23-2 when playing in front of 30,000 fans or more at Tropicana Field this year.  Shields was 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA in 17 home starts during the regular season, and he was solid in his Game 1 ALDS start there last Thursday.  He allowed three runs and six hits to the White Sox in 6.1 innings of a 6-4 victory.  Meanwhile, Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka has struggled against Tampa during his career with a 2-3 mark and 3.75 ERA.  Dice-K has pitched five innings or less in four of his last five starts, which could be a major concern in this series against the Rays right off the bat because the bullpen will likely be called upon early.  Boston is also just 1-9 in the last 10 meetings at Tampa, so back the Rays as my Double Dime ALCS Side Play O' the Week. 


ADDING

I am also adding a Single Dime play on the Rays to cover the runline at +180.

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Beat Your Bookie

100 - Tampa Bay Rays

100 - Louisville

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WSP Smooth 44

Philly +100
Dodgers/Philly Over 8.5

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Kelso

5 units Louisville -6.5

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