SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
ATL / CHI Under 44.0
The Bears offense got on track last week thanks to facing a pathetic Lions team that is simply dreadful on both sides of the ball. Things change quickly this week for the Bears as they now must deal with a Falcons team that has covered both their games at home and is off of a big road win at Green Bay. Indeed, the Falcons are starting to build some confidence and they know that to win again at home this week theyre going to have to shore up the defense after the Packers threw for over 300 yards against them last week. Like many teams, the intensity of the Falcons defense is different at home in comparison with on the road and they should display a strong effort this week against a Bears offense that is in a tough spot here. Chicago is off of a divisional road win and they have another divisional game on deck with Minnesota up next. In other words, dont expect the most elaborate offensive schemes from the Bears here. They will be looking to save some for their upcoming match-up with the Vikings. This will simply be a game (at Atlanta) where the Bears will hope to grind out a win. A steady diet of running the ball and playing solid defense is what Chicago has on tap for today. As for Atlanta, they have a bye on deck so theyll be up for this game as they look to take a 4-2 record into their bye week. The Falcons are a very strong running team but theyre facing one of the strongest run defenses in the league. The Bears struggle against the pass but the Falcons weakness on offense is their aerial attack. As you can see, this match-up sets up well for the Bears defense to have success against the Falcons while, at the same time, the Bears offense can not be trusted here. RB Forte, as you would expect from a young running back, has shown signs of inconsistency. Forte only gained 36 yards against the Lions last week and the Bears only gained 256 yards in their win over the Eagles two weeks ago. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game and too much weight shouldnt be put into the Bears blowout of a weak Lions team last week. Also, Atlantas offense has struggled in their two games against stronger defenses (Carolina and Tampa Bay) and this turns into a grinding, low-scoring battle on Sunday!
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Jacksonville @ Denver
3* Jacksonville +3 1/2
Denver is 11-26 ATS last 3 years in all games. Denver is 10-22 ATS last 3 years in games on a grass field. Denver is 6-19 ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Denver is 5-14 ATS last 3 years at home. Denver is 1-13 ATS last 3 years in all games when the total is between 42 1/2 and 49 points. Denver is allowing 26 points per game overall this year and 27.7 points per game at home this season. Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Jaguars are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jaguars are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Broncos are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on grass. Broncos are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss. Broncos are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 vs. AFC. Broncos are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. Broncos are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. Broncos are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Broncos are 1-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. We'll play Jacksonville for 3 units today!
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
NEW ORLEANS –7 Oakland 47
NO lost their game against Minnesota last week, which I was happy with seeing I had Minnesota but they out played Minnesota. NO gained 5.4yppl to just 4.2yppl for Minnesota. The Saints were –4 in turnovers, which really hurt them, including allowing a blocked field goal to be returned for a touchdown. NO did have two punt returns for touchdowns themselves. Oakland comes off a bye week and has a new head coach. When we last saw Oakland, they were blowing a 15 point lead to San Diego. They were only out gained in that game 5.0yppl to 4.9yppl and were down by just three points before Tomlinson broke a 41 yard touchdown run trying to run the clock out. Oakland averages 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl, including just 5.2yps against 5.7yps. They allow just 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. NO averages just 3.2ypr against 3.9ypr but 8.2yps against 6.4yps for a total of 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. NO qualifies in a negative 120-67-2 look ahead situation. Oakland qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 649-522-42. Numbers favor NO by just 3.5 points and predict about 48 points. The Oakland defense will have to play big in the passing game to keep this game close because Oakland struggles to throw the ball in the air but they are coming off a bye week and have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. Value and situations are good enough to give Oakland a shot. NEW ORLEANS 24 OAKLAND 23
INDIANAPOLIS –4 Baltimore 39
Baltimore lost to Tennessee last week but probably deserved to win because of a bad call late in the game that kept a Tennessee drive alive. Baltimore out gained Tennessee 4.4yppl to 3.9yppl, including out rushing them 3.5ypr to 2.1ypr and out passing them 5.7yps to 5.1yps. Indy won at Houston but needed to score the games last 21 points in the last four minutes of the game to win. They were out gained 5.8yppl to 5.4yppl, including being out rushed 4.9ypr to 3.6ypr and out passed 6.7yps to 6.5yps. Indy’s offense has been just average this year gaining 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense has been atrocious so far, allowing 4.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 5.6yps and 5.4yppl against 4.9yppl. If they can’t stop Baltimore’s offense this week that will be a bad sign for the defense. Baltimore averages just 4.2yppl against 4.6yppl, including just 4.9yps against 5.2yps. They do play great defense, allowing just 2.9ypr against 3.6ypr, 4.0yps against 5.1yps and 3.6yppl against 4.4yppl. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 649-522-42, including a subset, which is 520-396-30. Numbers actually favor Baltimore by one point and predict about 42 points. Another game where value and fundamentals line up for the dog and make it worth playing. Better defense is getting points. BALTIMORE 24 INDIANAPOLIS 17
NY JETS –8 Cincinnati 42.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start for Cincinnati. That’s not a good sign for the Bengal’s. Jets are coming off a bye week after blowing out Arizona 56-35 the week before the bye. Cincinnati played a close game on the scoreboard last week at Dallas but they were out gained 6.0yppl to 4.2yppl, including being out rushed 5.2ypr to 2.7ypr and out passed 7.3yps to 5.1yps. Cincinnati threw the ball 17 more times, which is the only reason the overall yppl stats were even as close as they were. For Cincinnati, 16 of their 22 points came on drives of 37 yards or less. The Bengal’s average just 3.3ypr against 3.7ypr, 4.5yps against 5.1yps and 4.0yppl against 4.5yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl so the defense has been improved but the offense has been terrible this year. The Jets average 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl and allow just 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. There are numerous situations that apply to Cincinnati in this game but the Jets also apply to a solid fundamental rushing situation. Numbers favor the Jets by 11 points and predict about 55 points. Cincinnati is a mess this year and I can’t support them until I have a better reason to do so. NY JETS 30 CINCINNATI 19
TAMPA BAY –1.5 Carolina 36.5
Carolina had it easy against KC last week in their 34-0 win. They out gained KC 6.2yppl to 2.5yppl, including out rushing them 4.2ypr to 2.1ypr and out passing them 10.7yps to 2.7yps. TB lost at Denver by three and were out gained 5.6yppl to 5.0yppl. They out rushed Denver 6.3ypr to 4.1ypr but were out passed 6.7yps to 4.3yps. TB has been below average overall on offense, gaining just 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl thanks to a poor passing game that is averaging just 5.1yps against 6.0yps. They do average 5.3ypr against 4.7ypr. The defense has been very good allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.2yps against 7.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.8yppl. Carolina averages 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl, including 6.9yps against 6.1yps. They allow just 4.3yppl against 5.1yppl, including just 3.8ypr against 4.4ypr and 4.6yps against 5.7yps. They have allowed 5.9yppl and 5.2yppl in their two road games. TB qualifies in fundamental rushing situation, which is 649-522-42, including a subset, which is 520-396-30. The also in a 143-79-8 and 278-190-20 fundamental rushing situations. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em before accounting for the situations favoring TB. They predict about 28 points. TB has lost five straight games at home to TB. Don’t like the fact TB hasn’t been able to defeat Carolina here the last five years but they are laying a short number at home with value and fundamentals in their favor. TAMPA BAY 20 CAROLINA 10
MINNESOTA –13 Detroit 45.5
Vikings won last week despite being out gained at NO 5.4yppl to 4.2yppl. Minnesota enjoyed a +4 in turnovers, including a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. They also allowed NO two punt returns for touchdowns. Detroit was Detroit. They were destroyed by Chicago 34-7, getting out gained 6.2yppl to 3.3yppl, including being out passed 9.4yps to 3.0yps. Detroit averages just 4.7yps against 5.7yps and 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl. That’s bad but their defense is even worse, allowing 5.0ypr against 4.5ypr, 8.9yps against 6.3yps and 6.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Minnesota has been average, at best, on offense gaining just 4.8yppl against 5.0yppl, including just 4.2ypr against 4.4ypr. They allow just 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl so I don’t expect Detroit to get much on offense, especially if Dan Orlovsky starts at quarterback in place of Kitna. Detroit qualifies in a winless situation, which is 76-30-6 and my turnover table, which is 380-240-18. Numbers favor Minnesota by 13.5 points and predict about 48 points. Vikings have won 10 straight at home against Detroit, including 42-10 last year. Value is just about even and situations favor Detroit but until I see something better I can’t side with them, even though they are getting a bunch of points in an NFL game, which is usually the only way to side. MINNESOTA 34 DETROIT 14
Chicago –2.5 ATLANTA 43.5
Not sure if I should be impressed with the Bears effort last week or if it was simply a case of playing a team like Detroit who is quitting early in the year. Chicago out gained Detroit 6.2yppl to 3.3yppl, including out passing Detroit 9.4yps to 3.0yps. Atlanta went to GB and won despite being out gained 6.6yppl to 6.0yppl. Atlanta averages 5.5ypr against 4.6ypr but just 5.9yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has been suspect, allowing 6.3yps against 5.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.0yppl. Chicago has been average on offense, gaining 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl but the defense has been rock solid, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.9yps against 5.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Atlanta may be without wr Roddy White this week. Atlanta qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 73-27-4. Numbers favor Chicago by 1.5 points before accounting for the situations and predict about 43 points. The situation favoring Atlanta is a strong situation but I have a hard time taking such a below average defense against a strong defense, even though they are getting points at home. The Bears have played well on the road. Atlanta has played very well at home but games against Detroit and Kansas City don’t provide enough proof for me to be convinced they can step up against this type of competition, knowing they lost by identical scores of 24-9 to both TB and Carolina earlier this year. Those games were on the road but I need to see more before I can play them against this type of team. ATLANTA 23 CHICAGO 20
HOUSTON –3 Miami 44.5
Houston gave one away last week, giving up 21 points to Indy over the last four minutes of the game. The Texans out gained Indy 5.8yppl to 5.4yppl, including out rushing them 4.9ypr to 3.6ypr and out passing them 6.7yps to 6.5yps. A –2 in turnovers including a fumble returned for a touchdown and a turnover that turned into a 20 yard touchdown drive for Indy broke their back. Miami dominated SD in their 17-10 win, out gaining SD 5.6yppl to 4.1yppl, including 4.2ypr to 3.2ypr and 7.4yps to 4.7yps. Miami averages 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl and allows 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. Their numbers aren’t great but slightly above average on both sides of the ball. Houston averages 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 5.5yps and 5.2yppl against 4.8yppl. Unfortunately their defense has been very bad, allowing 4.5ypr against 3.7ypr, 6.8yps against 5.8yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Houston qualifies in numerous situations this week, which are 76-30-6, 380-240-18 and 63-17-4. That 63-17-4 situation is 40-3 since 1995. But, Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 649-522-42, including a subset, which is 520-396-30. The numbers support Miami by 4.5 points and predict about 44 points. I would love to take Houston, knowing how strong the situations they qualify in are but Miami qualifies in an equally strong situation and has value on their side, not to mention a much better defense. Houston struggled to defeat a bad Miami team here last year, winning just 22-19. I’ll lean Houston’s way but it’s not a comfortable lean. HOUSTON 24 MIAMI 20
WASHINGTON –13.5 St Louis 44
Washington came back from a 14 point deficit to defeat Philly last week. Washington was out gained 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl as they out rushed Philly 4.6ypr to 3.2ypr but were out passed 6.8yps to 6.0yps. The Rams come off their bye week after blowing a lead to Buffalo in a game where they out gained the Bills 5.9yppl to 4.6yppl and out rushed the Bills 5.8ypr against 3.6ypr. The Redskins average 4.4ypr against 3.9ypr and 6.3yps against 5.8yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow just 6.0yps against 7.5yps and 5.3yppl against 6.1yppl. The Rams average just 4.8yps against 5.6yps and 4.5yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 8.2yps against 6.4yps and 6.3yppl against 5.5yppl. Both teams qualify in situations and the numbers favor Washington by 18 and predict about 37 points. I’ll lean Washington’s way. WASHINGTON 27 ST LOUIS 10
DENVER –3.5 Jacksonville 48
Pittsburgh dominated Jacksonville last week although the final score was close. They out gained Jacksonville 5.0ypr to 2.0ypr, 6.5yps to 5.0yps and 5.9yppl to 3.9yppl. Denver defeated TB by three and out gained the Bucs 5.6yppl to 5.0yppl. Denver averages 7.6yps against 6.4yps and 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 5.2ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.1yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Jacksonville has been just average on gaining 4.8yppl against 4.7yppl. They allow 4.2ypr against 3.8ypr, 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Denver qualifies in my turnover table, which is 380-240-18. Numbers favor Denver by 10 points and predict about 53 points. This should be a high scoring game but the total is a little too high for me to bite. Jacksonville has played pretty close games this year while Denver has struggled to win by more than three points, with the exception of their first game. I’ll side with the value and situation but it’s a weak lean at best. DENVER 28 JACKSONVILLE 24
Philadelphia –4.5 SAN FRANCISCO 41.5
Both losses for me last week came from backing both these teams. Philly jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Washington but only scored three points from there and lost 23-17. SF couldn’t get their offense on the field as NE controlled the ball for about twice as long as SF. NE out gained SF 4.7yppl to 4.1yppl, including out passing SF 6.3yps to 4.1yps. Take away one 66 yard pass to Randy Moss and SF out gained NE but that pass went for a touchdown and was a big play in the game. Philly out gained Washington 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl but was out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.2ypr. They out passed Washington 6.8yps to 6.0yps. Philly averages 6.7yps against 5.6yps and 5.5yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl. SF has struggled to throw the ball, averaging just 6.2yps against 6.9yps and 5.5yppl against 5.9yppl. They allow just 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl so the defense has been pretty good. SF qualifies in my turnover table, which is 380-240-18. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 143-79-8 and 278-190-20. Numbers favor Philly by just two points and predict about 42 points. I’ve lost two weeks straight with SF and will avoid playing them here until I am more confident they can move the ball through the air. PHILADELPHIA 21 SAN FRANCISCO 20
Dallas –5 ARIZONA 50.5
Dallas struggled on the scoreboard last week but dominated Cincinnati at the line of scrimmage, 6.0yppl to 4.2yppl, including 5.2ypr to 2.7ypr and 7.3yps to 5.1yps. Arizona defeated Buffalo 41-17 but were out gained 6.2yppl to 4.9yppl. They were out rushed 4.9ypr to 3.6ypr and out passed 7.0yps to 6.0yps. A +4 in turnover margin was the big difference in this game. Dallas averages 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 8.0yps against 5.9yps and 6.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. Arizona averages just 3.3ypr against 3.7ypr but 7.1yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense has been average, allowing 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 649-522-42, including a subset, which is 520-396-30. Numbers predict a pick ‘em. That rushing situation doesn’t fare as well for road favorites of more than four points. Because of that and where the numbers lean I will side with Arizona. Numbers also predict 60 points. I will avoid the over because this total is a little high where if things don’t go our way it is possible it won’t get to the over. DALLAS 31 ARIZONA 30
SEATTLE NL Green Bay
Not sure where this line will end up. GB lost at home last week and I had Atlanta. Atlanta did exactly what I thought they could do against a poor GB rush defense. GB allowed 4.9ypr and gained 4.5ypr themselves against a poor Atlanta defense. The Packers did throw for 7.8yps but allowed 7.5yps. Seattle was destroyed at NY, getting out gained 8.3yppl to 3.7yppl. They were out rushed 7.1ypr to 3.4ypr and out passed 10.0yps to 3.9yps. Seattle comes home this week where they play much better. For the season they average 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr but average just 4.7yps against 5.9yps. They allow 7.2yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. The Packers average 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl and allow 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Matt Hasslebeck won’t start in this game, which means Charlie Frye gets the start. That doesn’t concern me too much because this game should be somewhat like last week, where Seattle can control the clock by rushing the ball. Seattle qualifies in a letdown situation based on last weeks poor play, which is 83-39-4. The Seahawks qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 649-522-42, including a subset, which is 520-396-30. Numbers favor GB by one point and predict about 55 points. I will lean Seattle’s way in this game and will have to come back later this weekend once I know what the line will be. SEATTLE 30 GREEN BAY 20
SAN DIEGO –5 New England 44
NE played well last week in their defeat of SF although their 4.7yppl to 4.1yppl advantage would have gone the other way if not for a 66 yard touchdown pass to Randy Moss. That was a huge play and big plays can carry a team in a game so they can’t be dismissed. SD was beaten soundly at Miami, getting out gained 5.6yppl to 4.1yppl, including being out rushed 4.2ypr against 3.2ypr and 7.4yps against 4.7yps. NE averages just 5.5yps against 6.7yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl overall. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.1yps against 5.6yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. SD has been terrific throwing the ball this year, gaining 7.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 6.1yps against 6.7yps and 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl. I don’t have any situations on either side and the numbers greatly favor SD by 14 points. They predict about 48 points. I’ll side with what I consider the better team and plenty of value. SAN DIEGO 30 NEW ENGLAND 20
NY Giants –7.5 CLEVELAND 43
The Giants destroyed Seattle last week 44-6 and out gained them 8.3yppl to 3.7yppl. They out rushed Seattle 7.1ypr to 3.4ypr and out passed them 10.0yps to 3.9yps. Cleveland comes off their bye week after winning their first game of the season against Cincinnati. The Giants numbers are strong. They average 5.8ypr against 4.7ypr, 7.2yps against 6.7yps and 6.6yppl against 5.6yppl. The defense has also been solid, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.4yps against 5.1yps and 4.1yppl against 4.7yppl. Cleveland has struggled on offense, gaining just 3.9yps against 5.1yps and 3.8yppl against 4.4yppl. They allow 6.7yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.0yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game although the Giants would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation if this line were –7 or lower. That situation doesn’t work as well, however, for road favorites greater than –4. Numbers favor the Giants by 10.5 points and predict about 36 points. Cleveland struggled to stay with Dallas here and the Giants are just as bit as good if not better so I will lean with the Giants. NY GIANTS 24 CLEVELAND 14
YTD 22-6-1 +46.20%
3% OAKLAND +7 or more
3% BALTIMORE +4
3% TAMPA BAY –1.5
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
10 STAR Wrong Side Favored Game of the Week
Houston blew a 14 point lead last week vs Indy and Miami ( Which we cashed) beat San Diego.Chad Pennington is proving he is capable of spreading the field more effectively than he did in the past. Against the Patriots, he averaged 11.3 yards on his 17 completions. Against the Chargers, he averaged 7.9 yards on 22 completions.The improvement of Miami's defense has also been a big surprise.. Facing an outstanding San Diego offense, the Dolphins allowed 202 yards and 10 first downs in a 17-10 win last Sunday.Miami is a dog vs a winless Team ???????????????Take the points Houston has many key injuries.
Tampa Bay -1
Coach Jon Gruden said Thursday that Garcia looked sharp in practice and made it pretty clear the 38-year-old quarterback will start Sunday against Carolina.Garcia's mobility, hampered by calf and ankle injuries, is back, Gruden said, and he looks like the player who led the Bucs to the NFC South title last seasonTB 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
St. Louis +13.5
This 0-4 team should be rested and ready following a bye week.New defensive coordinator Jim Haslet is the spark needed here.This dog is Barking
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report- Sunday
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Grade / Prediction: 6* San Diego Chargers -5
Qualcomm Stadium will be the site of Sunday’s clash between the two teams that played for the AFC title last year. These are not quite the same two teams and Sunday night's prime-time matchup has lost a bit of its luster with the Chargers struggling and the Patriots trying to find their identity without QB Tom Brady.
This series has become a huge rivalry game between the Chargers and the New England Patriots. San Diego has been eliminated from Super Bowl contention by the Patriots in each of the past two seasons and this gives good cause for some revenge here tonight.
The Chargers are 2-3, two games out of first place in the AFC-West behind Denver, who have already defeated them this season. The Patriots are 3-1, but their aura of invincibility took a hit with the Super Bowl loss to the Giants last year and when Brady went down with a season-ending injury in the season-opener. Both teams have already lost to Miami who went 1-15 last season.
New England put 30 points on the 49ers last week but that score is a bit misleading. They were certainly helped by the 49ers QB JT O’Sullivan who threw three INT’s on the day. The Patriots averaged just 4.8 yards per play in that game against a Niners’ defense that averages allowing 5.1 yards per play at home to an average team.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index (OEI) shows the Chargers even with LT (3.7 yards per rush) starting slow are still ranked 2nd in the league in this category. The Chargers average only 10.99 yards per point while the Patriots are ranked 19th in the league and average 15.08 yards per point. These numbers show how efficient the Chargers are on the offensive side of the ball. This index measures not only offensive numbers but the proficiency of defense, special teams, red zone defense and turnover differential.
If you were to listen to the “so-called” experts you would think that Patriots QB Matt Cassel has performed rather well. We don’t think so and here’s one of the key reasons why we know he is not doing well replacing Tom Brady. Last season New England led the league in average Passing Yards per Attempt. Now our PYPA is much more advanced than say the numbers you will find at ESPN.com or Yahoo Sports. Our numbers include sacks and this is a major component to this equation that is if you want to find the spread winner in this or any football game.
Like we stated New England led the league last season but this season they are ranked 22nd averaging only 5.51 yards per pass attempt. Tonight’s opponent the San Diego Chargers rank 3rd in the league this season averaging 7.76 yards per pass attempt. This is a huge difference and usually leads to a successful investment opportunity.
New England’s defense has lost a step and are not the unit that went 18-0 last season. Their linebackers are certainly slow and their defense is weak against the run which should cost them tonight against a Chargers team that has LT and Darren Sproles to rush the football.
The Chargers defense will get a lift with the return of linebacker Stephen Cooper from suspension. This will help with their rush defense and that is an area of weakness for this Patriots team. The Patriots are using a running back by committee with Lawrence Maroney injured and have found the going to be extremely tough.
Our Defensive Efficiency Index (DEI) shows the Patriots ranked 11th in the league forcing opponents to average 15.19 yards per point. The Chargers are ranked 15th in the league and they are forcing opponents to average 14.69 yards per point. A slight edge for the Patriots but the competition has something to do with this difference as the Chargers have faced a very tough Carolina team and a high scoring Denver squad.
Our Situational Report for this contest shows the Chargers to be in a positive situation in tonight’s game. Play ON teams with a 1st Down Pass Rating For >1 and an ATS Win% <=.600, 82-27 ATS since 1994.
Technical Support for our selection can be found in these powerful angles. SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. passing defenses that are allowing a completion pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 11-2 ATS vs. teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 17-7 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 15-4 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Data base research has uncovered a solid NFL Power System that says to Play On NFL Favorites after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% playing a team with a winning record, 35-11 ATS since 1983.
This contest is very important to this Chargers squad not only because the Patriots have sent them home the last two seasons during the AFC Championship games but for this season. They are almost in a must win situation and each member of the Chargers team realizes it and are aware of what is needed tonight.
We look for the Chargers to come out and play very physical and not let up as they get the win and cover.
GRADED PREDICTION: 6* San Diego Chargers -5
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: 5* Seattle Seahawks +1
After meeting in the playoffs last season, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks were both expected to contend for division crowns this season. However, both teams have been unable to stop anyone on defense and both have injuries to the starting QB’s.Green Bay (2-3) and Seattle (1-3) won the NFC North and West, respectively, last season, and matched up in a divisional playoff game at Lambeau Field on Jan. 12. The Packers fell behind by two touchdowns four minutes into the game, but Brett Favre rallied them to a 42-20 victory which was his final win as a Packer.
Aaron Rodgers got off to a solid start as Favre's replacement, as the Packers opened 2008 with consecutive victories. Very little has gone right since, however, as Green Bay has dropped its last three games.
Rodgers, who sprained his shoulder in Week 4's 30-21 loss at Tampa Bay, pleaded with Coach Mike McCarthy to let him play last Sunday against Atlanta. He got his wish and finished 25-for-37 for 313 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, although the gutty effort came up short as the Packers lost 27-24.
Even though Rodgers missed most of practice this week it appears he will get the start in Sunday’s match up against the Seahawks.
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay's defense continues to struggle after allowing 370 yards of total offense last week. The Packers “D” is ranked 23rd in the league in scoring defense allowing 25.6 points per game and 26th in total defense with 374 yards per game.
The Seahawks returned all 11 defensive starters including four Pro Bowlers from last season's unit, but they have struggled this season as well. Although they are much better at stopping the run than the Packers are and that could very well be the difference today.
With both teams having injured QB’s they will try to establish the running game to take the pressure off and the Seahawks have the advantage in this department by more than 30 yards rushing per game on both sides of the ball.
Defensively Seattle only allows 129 yards rushing per game whereas the Packers are giving up 161 yards rushing per game. If you take out the Detroit game the Packers are allowing almost 200 yards rushing per game (190 yds) with a 5.2 yards per carry average. On the offensive side of the ball the Seahawks rush for 143 yards per game while the Packers don’t even average 100 yards rushing per contest with a 95.6 yard average.
It appears that Charlie Frye will get the start for Seattle on Sunday. Hasslebecks leg is not responding to treatment and he has not practiced a single day this week. The Seahawks were hoping to have Branch and Engram for this contest but it looks as though Engram will be the only wide-out starting of the two as Branch is still bothered by a sore heel he suffered in his last game.
On the technical front we know the Seahawks have won and covered seven of their last eight at home. The Hawks are 19-9-1 ATS at home since 2005. The Seahawks are 12-2 ATS versus any team with more wins after a straight up loss. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS at home the week after on the road as a TD+ dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS the week after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
Data base research has uncovered a few active Power Systems for today’s contest. NFL Teams are 13-5-1 ATS as a home favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The League is 49-20-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.
Our Technical Situational Report shows the Packers in a negative situation that says Play AGAINST team with a below average Rushing Game (RGF+RGA) and an above average Passing Game (PGF+PGA), 117-51 ATS since 1994. The Packers qualify in another negative situation that says to Play AGAINST teams with a Pass Defense Rating Advantage >1 and an above average Pass Offense Rating last season and their current opponent has an above average Rush Offense Rating, 141-53 ATS since 1994. The Seahawks qualify in a positive situation that says to Play ON teams with a Rush Offense Rating at least 0.5 points higher than last season and at least 0.5 points higher than their current opponent, 139-55 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Seattle Seahawks +1
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: 4* Arizona Cardinals +5
The Arizona Cardinals will play host to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon in Phoenix. This was at one time considered another home game for the Cowboys but that has changed with the Cardinals recent success and Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt’s drive to change the culture in Arizona.
Arizona has won eight of their last ten games at home including two wins this season. They hosted the Miami Dolphins and at the time an undefeated Buffalo Bills team and the Cardinals outscored these two teams 72-17 in those two wins.
Besides having to contend with arguably the deepest division in the NFL, the Cowboys are also struggling to live up to the high expectations set for them before the season. Their last three wins - all against teams currently with losing records - have been by an average of just 8.0 points.
Dallas scored the first 17 points last week before giving up 16 unanswered to the Bengals and needing a late push to hold on.
The Dallas defense has struggled this season and they are short-handed in the defensive secondary as Newman had to have sports hernia surgery and will be out up to six weeks. Added to this is the distraction of PacMan Jones this week as he and his bodyguard made headlines for fighting in a hotel bathroom.
The week before the PacMan incident it was TO that made headlines for not getting the ball thrown his way enough. He had eighteen thrown to him in that game, he should spend more time worrying about the ones he drops instead of asking for more. All this has to take its toll on the team and distractions like these are the last thing this team needs right now.
The Cowboys have only one defensive interception this season and are minus four in the turnover category. Tony Romo has committed at least one turnover in eight straight games. Cards starting QB Kurt Warner has thrown for more yards and been intercepted less than Romo this season.
Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals put up 373 yards on a Buffalo defense that has played better than Dallas this season. This Cardinals team believes that they are a valid contender for the NFC West Title this season and a win over the Cowboys today goes a long way in building their momentum for the balance of the season.
Technical Support for our selection comes from the Cowboys. The Cowboys are 8-26-1 ATS on the road versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win. The Cowboys are 3-15-1 ATS on the road versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win at home. The Cowboys are 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite the week after as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 1-10-1 ATS the week after as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 1-9 ATS on the road after a straight up win at home as a TD+ favorite.
Data base research has uncovered three strong Power Systems that are active for today’s contest. NFL Teams are 8-34 ATS as a road favorite the week after a straight up win as a TD+ favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The League is 5-14 ATS on the road the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The League is 7-14-1 ATS as a road favorite when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.
Our Technical Situational Report shows that Dallas is in a negative situation in today’s game. The situation says to Play AGAINST teams with a higher SU Win% last season than their current Win% and last season’s SU Win% was >than their PWP%, 123-38 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona Cardinals +5
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: 5* Dallas / Arizona Over 50
In a matchup between the NFC’s two highest-scoring teams, the Cowboys look to make a move in the loaded East standings on Sunday when they visit the Arizona Cardinals, who hope to protect their hold on first place in the West.
Dallas returned enough of its core from last year's division-winning team to enter 2008 as a prime candidate to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The Cowboys (4-1) are still on track thanks to their conference-leading 151 points, but they're not taking anything for granted in the league's only division with more than one team with at least four wins.
Arizona (3-2) looked like a legitimate contender last Sunday, when it recorded a season-high point total while handing Buffalo its first loss, 41-17. One week after turning the ball over seven times in a 56-35 loss to the New York Jets, the Cardinals won the turnover battle with the Bills 4-0.
Arizona, second in the NFC with 147 points, got a big game from quarterback Kurt Warner, who was 33-for-42 for 250 yards and two touchdowns after throwing three interceptions and losing three fumbles the previous week.
These two teams are very close statistically as we see the Cowboys average 30.2 points per game while the Cardinals average 29.4 points per game. Dallas averages 268 yards per game passing and the Cardinals throw for 282 yards per game. Dallas has an edge in the rushing department as they average 138 yards rushing per contest and the Cardinals do not break 100 yards rushing per game as they only average 94 yards rushing.
On the defensive side of the ball we also find these two teams are very close. Dallas allows 22.2 points per game and Arizona allows 24.0 points per game. Passing yards allowed are also very close with the Cowboys allowing 210 yards passing per game while the Cards allow 204. In the rushing department they are almost the same and the total offensive and defensive numbers are very close.
Our Defensive Efficiency Index shows the Cowboys ranked 22nd in the league only forcing their opponents to average 13.74 yards per point and the Cards are ranked 27th in the league forcing their opponents to an average of only 12.58 yards per point. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only defensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index shows the Cowboys ranked 10th in the league averaging 13.490 yards per point while the Cardinals are ranked 6th in the league averaging only 12.82 yards per point. These numbers show that both teams can score and do so often. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only offensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.
The Cowboys have lost their last two games against the number and we know that road teams that are coming in off back-to-back ATS losses and won their last game straight up are 12-1 Over the last six seasons. NFL Teams are 40-17-2 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 7-0-1 Over the week after a win in which they had at least 150 yards rushing. NFL Teams are 12-3-1 Over as a road favorite when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average.
The Cardinals are 11-0-1 Over after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Cardinals are 14-1 Over as a dog after playing at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The League is 28-8 Over at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. During the month of October home underdogs with a Total of 49 or more points are 12-3 Over and a perfect 5-0 Over if they are NFC teams. NFL Teams are 25-9-2 Over the week after a straight up win at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index shows both teams scoring over 29.6 points in this contest which easily covers the posted total of 50 points. Finally our Player Performance Ratings Index has Arizona (+7.2) and Dallas (+7.5) scoring more than their respective totals for this contest.
The combination of strong technical, situational and fundamental support for the “Over” in this contest makes this our 5* NFL Total Play of the Month.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Dallas / Arizona Over 50
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: 4* Carolina / Tampa Bay Under 36.5
The 4-1 Carolina Panthers head south to Cigar City to face the hometown Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are 3-2 on the young season. This meeting on Sunday will pit the Number 1 and 2 teams of the NFC South Division.
The Panthers lead the division thanks to one of the NFL's best defenses, which has held opponents to five touchdowns the last four games and 268.6 yards per game overall which is fourth-best in the NFL.
Carolina hasn't allowed a touchdown in its last nine quarters, shutting out the Kansas City Chiefs 34-0 last Sunday after limiting the Atlanta Falcons to three field goals in a 24-9 victory on Sept. 28.
Last Sunday, the Chiefs were held to 127 yards of total offense, 35 on the ground. Larry Johnson joined Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and LaDainian Tomlinson as leading rushers who have failed to gain 100 yards against the Panthers.
It helps that they were backed by a solid offensive effort by DeAngelo Williams, who rushed for a season-high 123 yards and two touchdowns, and Jake Delhomme was 14-of-22 for 236 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
While the revival of Delhomme and the work of the defense gives the Panthers reason to be optimistic about the future, the Buccaneers aren't even sure who will be starting at quarterback on Sunday when they try to bounce back after having their three-game winning streak snapped.
Brian Griese was knocked out of Tampa Bay's 16-13 loss to Denver in the third quarter last Sunday with a swollen right elbow. Griese was 13-of-19 for 88 yards before he was replaced by Jeff Garcia, who went 13-of-17 for 93 yards and a touchdown. Latest word out of Cigar City is the QB situation is day to day until Gruden has all the facts.
Tampa Bay’s defense is not as stout as in past seasons although they only allow 18 points per game. They also hold opponents rushing attack to only 99 yards per contest and their pass defense is only allowing 218 yards passing per game.
Our Defensive Efficiency Index shows the Buccaneers ranked 5th in the league forcing their opponents to average 16.93 yards per point and the Panthers are ranked 3rd in the league forcing their opponents to an average of 18.17 yards per point. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only defensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index shows the Buccaneers ranked 21st in the league averaging 15.36 yards per point while the Panthers are ranked 16th in the league averaging 14.47 yards per point. These numbers show that both teams are not as proficient at scoring as they are keeping other teams from the end-zone. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only offensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.
Technical Support for our selection comes from both teams as we see the Panthers are 0-7 Under versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up win at home. The Panthers are 2-10 Under versus any team with fewer wins. after a straight up win. The Panthers are 1-8 Under as a road dog when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Panthers are 9-23 Under when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games. NFL Teams are 5-12 Under within 3 of pick the week after at home in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.
The Buccaneers are 5-13 Under within 3 of pick when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 4-13 Under as a home favorite when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 2-12 Under versus any team with more wins. after a straight up loss on the road. The Buccaneers are 1-9 Under at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date. NFL Teams are 3-10 Under within 3 of pick at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date.
Strong technical, fundamental and situational support for the “Under” in this contest makes this our NFL 4* Total Play of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Carolina / Tampa Bay Under 36.5
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