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SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Allen Eastman

$2500.00#214 Atlanta (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12) UNDER DOG GOY
The Falcons have been incredible at home this year, winning their two games at the Georgia Dome by a combined 72-35. This is a young Falcons team, coming off a big upset at Lambeau, and I think they are going to get a big boost playing in front of the home faithful after two road games. Both of Chicago’s losses have come against NFC South teams while Atlanta is 2-0 SU and ATS against the NFC North. Atlanta has covered five of seven games overall and I think that they win this game outright. They are still one of the most underrated teams in the NFL and I think this is a great opportunity to cash in on these up-and-comers.

$2000.00 #209 Carolina (+1.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The road team has won seven of 10 in this series outright and the Panthers have absolutely dominated this series lately, winning eight of 10 from the Bucs. Carolina is also 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings and is better on both sides of the ball right now. I think the Panthers have the more impressive resume and I think that with Steve Smith they have the best offensive player on either team. Tampa struggled to move the ball against Denver last week, and I don’t see them being able to keep up with Jake Delhomme and the Panthers in this one.

$600.00 ‘Under’ 45.5 Detroit at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
Minnesota is going to want to run the ball and control the clock against the Lions this week, and Detroit’s Tampa-2 is going to focus on not giving up the big play (unlike what New Orleans did on Monday) in the passing game. Also, Jon Kitna is likely out for the Lions and I don’t see either of Detroit’s backups being able to put up many points against one of the best defenses in the league.

$400.00 ‘Over’ 36.5 Carolina at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
The numbers suggest that these are two of the better offenses in the league and I am looking for both clubs to get into the 20’s in this meeting. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Tampa Bay and is 8-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 11 games overall.

$2000.00 #224 Arizona (+5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
Dallas is a team that’s dealing with an awful lot of turmoil this week as head cases like T.O. and Pac Man are doing everything they can to serve as a distraction. Arizona is looking at this game as an opportunity to make a statement and the home team is 5-2 ATS in this series. Dallas is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and continues to be a team facing inflated odds from the books. We’ll take the points and look for the Cards to put a scare into the Boys.

$300.00 #205 Baltimore (+4.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 12)
Baltimore has played great against two of the better teams in the league (Pittsburgh, Tennessee) over the last two weeks while the Colts really should have gotten blown out in Houston. Baltimore is the much tougher team here and they should manhandle Indianapolis on both sides of the ball. The line on this game is sinking like a stone and I think that’s a great indicator that we’re getting value on the Ravens.

TEASER
10 POINT MOVE
ATL +13
TB OVER 26.5
CAR+2....................................$200.00

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Blade wrote:


Kevin Kavitch

Denver is fortunate to be sitting pretty at 4-1 with a comfy 2-game lead in their division. That helps us here and I feels the 2-3 Jags are the better team and there's no question they'll also be the better motivated team off a tough loss to the Steelers. Jacksonville won't be intimidated going into Denver. Last season they came into Denver and won 23-14 as 3 point dogs while running for almost 200 yards. The Broncos are again listed as home favorites here, a role they've surprisingly been poor at in recent seasons. The Jags other 2 losses came against Buffalo & Tennessee in tight games to open the season so quality of opponent has played a big role in their 2-3 start. The Denver defense has struggled and Jacksonville has an excellent chance to win the line of scrimmage and the game. This one is getting added early due to the extra line value of +3.5 but don't shy away if the line does eventually settle at +3. Take Jacksonville +3.5 for a 5* Top Play


The Bengals appear to be an ugly team to back but I expect this is one of those games where the public will get killed backing the obvious favorite. Winless NFL teams that have things going for them make for long-term pointspread success. The Bengals fit the bill. They've given the Giants and Cowboys everything they can handle the past 3 weeks and along with a loss to the Browns where they were -3 in turnovers and playing without Palmer. Palmer is back the Bengals are showing signs of life. I expect him to have even more confidence after testing his arm out under live fire last week. There is no question that Cincy will be the better motivated team and while the Jets are off to a decent start, they are not a special team that would cause us to back off here. They have some deficiencies in their pass defense and their running game has underachieved. The Bengal pass defense has been better than expected this year and are getting healthier which can make an immediate impact. They can hang with New York in this situation. A quick look at the line shows a ton of public action on the Jets but suspiciously the books have been forced to move the line in the opposite direction from -6.5 to -6. Like I've been saying all year, seen this movie before and no doubt the early smart money is on the Bengals. Don't be surprised if the Bengals pull a shocker here and I like this one enough to make a 2nd Top Play which is rare. Take Cincinnati +6 for a 5* Top Play.

FRIDAY UPDATE
Cincinnati +6
* Lousy luck, Cincinnati was added prior to Palmer being reported as out. A great situation but there's a major drop-off at QB now if this is true. The line is currently +8.5 and I would pass on it now if it hasn't been played already. I have very little confidence in Fitzpatrick. It will still count as a Top since it's been monitored and will have to hope for some luck if the reports are correct (I've seen mixed reports). Pass on the game if you haven't played it already.

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Oscarxena Sports

215 Miami/Houston Over 44 1/2 -1.07 (3 Unit Play)

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Jimmy Boyd


5* NFC Game of the Year on Bears -3 The Bears have been in every single game this season and have really put things together the past two weeks with a big Sunday Night Football win over the Eagles and a blowout road win over the Lions last week. The Falcons are in a letdown spot after a big upset win at Green Bay. This young team has not shown that it can play week in consecutive weeks and that's why each of Atlanta's wins have been followed by a double digit loss. All Atlanta has been able to do is run the football and the Bears defense will make sure that doesn't happen this week. Chicago is 23-8 ATS since 1992 versus good rushing teams averaging more than 130 rushing yards per game, including 6-0 ATS under Lovie Smith in this spot. The Bears are also on a 3-0-1 ATS run on the road. Chicago is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games against the Falcons. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6 and 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bears are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Take Chicago.

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

DOC Sports AFC GOY

4 Unit Play. #126 Take San Diego over New England (Sunday 8:15 pm NBC) The Chargers are back in a must win situation after a disappointing trip to Miami last Saturday where they laid an egg losing, 17-10. That being said, the are hitting the Patriots at the right moment making their second straight trip to the west coast after taking down San Francisco last week. This eventually catches up to teams and that will become evident on Sunday night. San Diego currently sits at 2-3 in the AFC West and this is a must win game for them much like it was three weeks ago when they faced the Jets in a primetime game. Some questioned when one would lay nine points but that was an easy cover and the same will hold true tonight. New England is not the same team with out Tremendous Tom behind center and the Bolts will not let Cassell nickel and dime his way down the field. San Diego 28, New England 17.

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Erin Rynning

regular plays

Baltimore
under SF/ Philly

playmaker

under Sea/GB

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

cappers access

Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick

Sun (NFL) Raiders
Sun (NFL) Jets
Sun (NFL) Broncos

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Thanks for posting Dr. Bobs analysis. Do you have his 3 star ?

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

winnah wrote:


Thanks for posting Dr. Bobs analysis. Do you have his 3 star ?

Haven't seen it yet

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How many units does Dr. Bob suggest we should place on the
ones that Blade posted above?  Does anyone know?


==============================================

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Ben Lewis

5* BEST Dallas -5
3* Houston -3
3* Indy -4
3* Chicago/Atlanta UNDER 43.5

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

BEN BURNS

49'ERS

I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO. I believe that these teams are currently more evenly matched than is indicated by the line. Both teams are coming off back to back losses and both are sitting at 2-3. Both teams blew out a winless team (Eagles crushed Rams, 49ers did the same to the Lions) and both teams have a win over a decent opponent. The Eagles won vs. Pittsburgh while the 49'ers won at Seattle. Yet, here we have the banged-up Eagles, who will likely be without their top offensive weapon, laying more than a field goal on the road. While the dangerous Westbrook is expected to be out for the Eagles, Frank Gore is starting to expand his repertoire for the 49'ers. Gore leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage, and he's shown some new facets to his game recently. In addition to having taken a couple of direct snaps in recent games, Gore lined up at wide receiver against the Patriots and caught a 16-yard touchdown pass against New England cornerback Ellis Hobbs. Expect another heavy dose of Gore here as that will help to take a bit of the pressure off O'Sullivan from Philadelphia's dangerous pass rush. In addition to the injury to Westbrook and to their receivers, the Eagles are again expected to be without Pro Bowl right guard Shawn Andrews. The 49'ers were 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range the past two seasons. This is their first game in that role this season and I expect them to earn at least another cover.


CHARGERS

I'm laying the points with SAN DIEGO. In such a competitive league and with such a limited number of games on the schedule, every game is very important for all teams. That being said, this game is much bigger for San Diego. For starters, the Chargers are 2-3 while the Patriots are 3-1. Perhaps more importantly, the Patriots have become their nemesis in recent seasons, knocking them out of the playoffs in each of the last two years. If not for the Patriots, San Diego knows that it could have potentially earned at least one Super Bowl. That means that the Chargers have payback on their minds. They also know that if they can't even beat the Patriots without Brady, that it may take a long time before they ever do. Granted, Cassel is coming off a career high (259) in passing yards. However, he's still no Brady and he also threw two interceptions last week while getting sacked five times. I played against the Chargers last Sunday for several reasons. One of those reasons was that they were playing the second of back to back road games. This week, it's the Patriots who are in that situation. While I do think it was probably wise not to travel back to New England in between these games, the Patriots have still been away from home for a long time now. Another reason that I played against the Chargers last week was that I thought they might get caught looking ahead to this game. There won't be any looking ahead this week though, as the Chargers have had this game circled since the schedule came out. I played on the Chargers in their last home game and they crushed the Jets by a score of 48-29. That continued a pattern which has seen the Chargers "win big" when they do win. Looking at their last 10 SU victories and we find that the Chargers have won those games by an average margin of 15.2 points. Nine of those victories came by a minimum of six points and ALL came by a minimum of four. Note that the lone game which was decided by four points was a road playoff game at Indianapolis when they were listed as underdogs. Eight of those 10 victories, including both from this season, came by double-digits. Including the victory over the Jets, the Chargers are 14-6 SU and 17-3 SU their last 20 home games. I expect them to be extremely fired up and for them to win this one convincingly. *Annihilator


RAMS

I'm taking the points with ST. LOUIS. Given the situation, I believe that this number is too high. The Redskins have played five straight games against teams which will be competing for the playoffs. Three of those games came against division rivals, including each of the last two. All three of those divisional matchups came on the road, too. Off all those "big" games, it will be easy for the Redskins to overlook the lowly Rams. Note that Washington is an ugly 1-8-1 ATS (2-8 SU) the last 10 times that it faced a team with a losing record. The Skins are also just 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU!) the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. As for the Rams, they've got a new coach (Jim Haslett) and they should be extremely determined to show him that they haven't quit. They're also coming off a bye and so have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. QB Bulger, expected to back in the lineup, was quoted as saying: "Certainly, it didn't start out the way we wanted. But guys haven't quit, and we honestly still think we do have a chance in the division. Believe it or not." The Redskins have seen their five games decided by an average of just six points and ALL five of them were decided by single-digits. Look for them to have their hands full once again. *NFC GOW


RAIDERS/SAINTS UNDER

I'm playing on the Saints and Raiders to finish UNDER the total. Everyone just watched the Saints "sail above the number" against the Vikings on Monday. However, while that has helped keep this week's total generously high, that score (30-27) was actually quite deceiving. For starters, the Saints got two of their touchdowns when Reggie Bush scored on punt returns. Bush is certainly a dangerous weapon but he's not going to run back two punts for touchdowns every week. You may recall that the Raiders challenged Devin Hester (another dangerous kick returner) last year with success. In that November game at Chicago, Hester had just 14 yards on six punt returns and 34 yards on two kickoff returns. Hester returned one kickoff from 8 yards deep in the end zone and only managed to make it out to the 11. He also lost 4 yards on punt returns two different times. Hester even admitted after the game: "I did get frustrated a couple of times..." As for the Saints' defense in the Monday night game, it was also better than the final score indicates. In fact, the Saints limited the Vikings to a season-low 270 yards - including just 44 on the ground. The Vikings scored their first touchdown on a blocked field goal and Saints' turnovers set them up with a short field on other occasions. The Saints were also tough defensively in their two previous games here, allowing an average of 18.5 points. They limited the Bucs to 20 in their first game here and held the 49'ers to just 17 points (only 312 total yards) in their second game. The 49'ers had scored more than 30 points in consecutive games before that, so limiting them to 17 was pretty good. Through three games here, they are now allowing 311 yards, which is better than the league average of 321. This week, the Saints' defense will take on a Raider offense which is averaging 19.5 points and 311 yards per game, both below the league average. It's true that new coach Cable has talked about "opening up the offense." He's still a former offensive line coach though and the Raiders are still a running team at heart. I don't see them transforming into a "pass-happy" team over-night. Meanwhile, the Raiders defense is allowing a mere 284 total yards (and just 16 points!) in their two road games. The Raiders last game did finish above the total. However, that was a very tough beat for 'under' bettors (myself included) as the game finished over by only half a point after the teams combined for 28 points in the fourth quarter, after scoring only 18 through the first three quarters. Other than their late fourth quarter meltdown, the Raiders did play well defensively. San Diego entered that game having scored 86 points it's previous two games and QB Phillip Rivers was red hot. However, Oakland limited the Chargers to three points through the first three quarters and Rivers finished at just 14-for-25 for 180 yards with only one touchdown to go along with his two interceptions. Note that the Raiders saw the UNDER go a profitable 7-1-1 in Week's five through nine the last two seasons. During the same stretch, the UNDER was 7-2-1 when they were coming off a division loss. Additionally, we find the UNDER at a profitable 11-5 the last 16 times that the Raiders were coming off a bye. Look for this afternoon's game to also finish below the big number with the UNDER improving to 4-1 the last five times that the Saints were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. *total of the week


HOUSTON

I'm playing on HOUSTON. As many of you know, I played on both these teams last Sunday. Both teams were matched up against an elite opponent and both played very well. Miami won outright vs. San Diego while Houston suffered a heart-breaking fourth quarter loss vs. Indianapolis. The Texans played very well but were letdown in the final five minutes by backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels. In fairness to Rosenfels, he had played well through the first three quarters. Still, that doesn't excuse his meltdown in the final five minutes. Matt Schaub is expected to be back in the starter's role this week and while the Houston fans aren't currently enamored with him, I believe he gives the Texans the best chance to win this game. Note that Schaub was 29 of 40 and threw for more than 300 yards. More importantly, he had three TD's (drives were 91, 80 and 85 yards!) and didn't turn the ball over. Naturally, Schaub is anxious to get back on the field. He was quoted as saying: "You can't wait for that next opportunity to get out on the field and get a win. We're definitely looking forward to getting back out there this week and getting past this last game and moving on." I believe that the Texans will be able to put their last two games behind them and come out ready to play. A look at the Texans' schedule shows that their first three games all came on the road against the likes of Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Those are all very difficult venues these days and those three teams are currently a combined 11-4, 6-2 at home. As already mentioned the Texans other game, which was their lone home game, came vs. Indianapolis. Despite their slow start, the Colts are still one of top teams in the league and the Texans had an edge on them in total yards, first downs and time of possession. Calling last week's game a 'push' (was either a win/push/loss depending on when and where one played) the Texans are still a highly profitable 8-2-1 ATS (7-4 SU) their last 11 home games and an even more impressive 25-12-3 ATS in 40 tries after having lost two or more consecutive games. As for the Dolphins, they're 0-3-2 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were road underdogs of three points or less. As impressive as they were in last week's win, the situation was really in their favor. That's because they were catching the West-Coast based Chargers feeling good about themselves while flying across the country to play an early game and looking ahead to this week's nationally televised showdown with the Patriots. This week, it's the Dolphins who are "patting themselves on the back" while traveling. Receiver Greg Camarillo even referred to the Dolphins as a "great team," saying: "We have arrived. Other teams would doubt us before. Now they have to prepare to play a great team. We're ready to play anybody." Considering that the Dolphins still have just one win in their last 12 road games and just three wins in their last 20 games overall, I feel it's a little too early to be reffering to themselves as "great" and that this type of over-confidence will catch up with them here. Yes, the Dolphins have enjoyed success with their "Wildcat Formation." Opposing teams have now had plenty of time to prepare for it though and it's safe to assume that the Texans will be studying plenty of game film from how and when the Dolphins have utilized that formation against the Patriots and Chargers. The Texans are 3-0 all-time against the Dolphins and two of those three victories (in 2003 and 2006) resulted in their first victories of their respective seasons. Look for history to repeat itself as the Texans play a full 60 minute game and come away with the win and cover. *Oct. GOM

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

RINKPLAY SPORTS

2* Colorado / Edmonton Over

2* Los Angeles Kings

2* Anaheim Ducks

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Dr. Bob

[img]http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:EIY … torbob.jpg[/img]

3 Star Selection
***Oakland 24 NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 12-Oct-08
New Orleans is coming off an emotionally tough last seconds 27-30 Monday loss to Minnesota and it may be tough for the Saints to get up for a 1-3 Raiders team. New Orleans applies to a negative 19-64-1 ATS situation that plays against bad defensive teams as big home favorites and Oakland applies to a very strong 93-37-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The Raiders looked horrible in their opening 14-41 loss to Denver, but defensive coordinator Rob Ryan started to get more aggressive defensively after that game and his players have responded with 3 good defensive efforts – allowing 4.5 yards per play in 3 games since that opening game debacle. The Raiders should be 3-0 ATS in those 3 games, but they blew a 15-0 lead as a 7 ½ point dog two weeks ago and failed to cover when the Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson busted through the line for a long TD run when they were simply trying to run out the clock. The Raiders are certainly capable of competing in this game, as they did at Buffalo and against the Chargers. The firing of Lane Kiffin lifts a burden off the backs of the Raiders, who will respond to well-liked interim head coach Tom Cable. Cable has turned the play-calling over to offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, who was handcuffed by Kiffin’s insistence on calling the plays. Knapp has a good history of play calling with both the 49ers’ playoff teams earlier this decade and with a Falcons team that also went to the playoffs under his guidance as offensive coordinator and play caller. The Raiders were simply too predicable when Kiffin was calling the plays and that will no longer be the case. Oakland should improve offensively after rating at 0.4 yppl worse than average in their first 4 games and moving the ball on a sub-par Saints defense that has allowed 5.7 yppl (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) won’t be that difficult. The Saints will sorely miss outstanding rookie CB Tracy Porter, who not only led the team with 6 passes defended but was also 3rd on the team in tackles. Porter was a big reason the Saints went from the league’s worst pass defense to closer to mediocrity and they will certainly be worse without him. My math model favors the Saints by 8 points, but that number would be 5 points if the Raiders play defense like they’ve played the last 3 games. Either way, the line is at least fair and the technical analysis strongly favors the Raiders. I’ll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ or more (at -115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars at +7 (-115 or better).

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Undefeated77 wrote:


How many units does Dr. Bob suggest we should place on the
ones that Blade posted above?  Does anyone know?

I believe those are newsletter plays and you could rate them based upon the difference between the projection and today's line.  Careful, newsletter plays are sometimes written a week in advance.  I'd wait for today's updates/service plays.

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Tommy Rider

Double-Dime Bet

DEN / JAC Over 48.0

The Broncos defense played well against the Bucs but it won't happen two weeks in a row. One thing to look at when taking an over is pass rush. It's hard to hit an over when the quarterbacks are always under pressure. That won't be a problem in this game as Denver and Jacksonville both rank near the bottom of the NFL in sacks. The Jags defense ranks 22nd in the NFL, allowing 344 yards and 22 points per game. They are beat up in the secondary and can't stop anyone from throwing the football on them, so expect Jay Cutler to have a huge day. On the other side, the Jags struggling running game should get on track against the Broncos generous defense. Denver ranks 29th in total defense, allowing close to 400 yards and 26 points per game. Last week was a fluke for Denver's defense and it will show on Sunday in what should be a wild shootout at Invesco Field. **2 UNIT PLAY**


HOU -3.0 vs  MIA

Double-Dime Bet

I'm a big fan of this Miami team as I took them last week against the Chargers. However, I like them more at home than I do on the road and I think this is a bad spot for them. Miami is coming off two huge upsets of the Patriots and Chargers and this looks like a big letdown spot for the Fish taking on a desperate Houston team with its backs to the wall. The Texans gave one away last week against the Colts but overall I they have played well in their last two games against the Jaguars and Colts. I heard that the Texans players had a close door meeting to talk about how big this game is with Detroit and Cincy on deck. With three straight home games, the players still believe they can make a playoff run starting with a win today. I think Matt Schaub has a big day against a suspect Miami secondary and Houston gets the win at home. **2 UNIT PLAY**

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Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Double-Dime Bet

NOS / OAK Under 47.5

The Saints Monday night game with Minnesota went over the total but it really had no business doing so and that is creating line value this week. The Saints offense was decent versus the Vikings but not spectacular and, on the other side of the ball, New Orleans actually did a great job against the Vikings! Minnesota scored their big points off of turnovers and a blocked field goal. Offensively, the Vikes really couldn?t do much against the Saints and yet those just glancing at the scoreboard Monday would think otherwise. New Orleans now will take advantage of a Raiders club which, like the Vikings, has had troubles throwing the ball. Another weak passing offense means the Saints can focus on shutting down the running game and, in doing so, New Orleans will keep the Oakland offense in check. The Raiders are coming off of their bye week and the coaching changes they made during the bye week won?t help them any here. Those are going to take time to have a positive effect and the bad news for Raiders fans is that coach Kifflin, who was just fired, was actually getting the support of his players and now it?s like the Raiders are starting over again. This is going to do no favors for the offense and, as noted above, the Saints defense played far better than last week?s scoreboard showed. At home, and off a tough loss, the Saints defense will ?bear down? once again. Note that Oakland is 0-6 against the spread in domes and this will be QB JaMarcus Russell?s first ever start in a dome. It just is not shaping up to be a good day for the Raiders offense. That said, Oakland?s defense has played better than many expected coming into the season and they?ve had two weeks to prepare for what the Saints offense brings to the field. Also, look for a steady dose of running this week for New Orleans as they try to minimize the mistakes that cost them the game Monday versus Minnesota. Also, New Orleans? offense wasn?t as impressive as the scoreboard shows last week as Reggie Bush had two punt returns for touchdowns. The big total here is simply not justified! UNDER!

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NSA

20* Bears
10* Eagles
10* Ravens
10* Vikings
10* Jags
10* Panthers

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Victorious Plays

Detroit / Minnesota
2* Over 44.5

Carolina / Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay -1

New England / San Diego
Over 44

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Jeff Bonds

Triple-Dime Bet

NOS / OAK Under 47.5

I'm just not expecting both teams to come out and dominate the game offensively, as the Raiders are in transition off a bye week (firing of a head coach) and the New Orleans Saints are playing on a short week after a disappointing loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.

The total in this game should be 44 tops - so I'm imagining that we're getting more than three points of betting value here. New Orleans is on an 8-0-1 over run - but injuries and this particular matchup will end that run here.

Both teams will try to establish a running game, as the Saints will not find it easy to throw the ball against the Raiders - plus Oakland is use to defending a Reggie Bush-like back (Sproles/Tomlinson of the Chargers). Another thing that will play defense against Bush is the punting of Shane Lechler - he's simply the best in the league and I imagine he'll sacrifice 5-10 yards in punting distance to help his coverage team agaist Reggie.

The Raiders will welcome back RB Justin Fargas and will undoubtedly try to pound the ball at the Saints. New Orleans has done surprisingly well against the run of late, which should be enough to allow QB Jamarcus Russell to make mistakes in Saints territory.

The Oakland Raiders defense is rested and had the San Diego Chargers on the ropes two weeks ago, as a meaningless Tomlinson TD caused the game to go over 44. I don't expect this to happen on Sunday.

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