SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Kevin Kavitch

Denver is fortunate to be sitting pretty at 4-1 with a comfy 2-game lead in their division. That helps us here and I feels the 2-3 Jags are the better team and there's no question they'll also be the better motivated team off a tough loss to the Steelers. Jacksonville won't be intimidated going into Denver. Last season they came into Denver and won 23-14 as 3 point dogs while running for almost 200 yards. The Broncos are again listed as home favorites here, a role they've surprisingly been poor at in recent seasons. The Jags other 2 losses came against Buffalo & Tennessee in tight games to open the season so quality of opponent has played a big role in their 2-3 start. The Denver defense has struggled and Jacksonville has an excellent chance to win the line of scrimmage and the game. This one is getting added early due to the extra line value of +3.5 but don't shy away if the line does eventually settle at +3. Take Jacksonville +3.5 for a 5* Top Play


The Bengals appear to be an ugly team to back but I expect this is one of those games where the public will get killed backing the obvious favorite. Winless NFL teams that have things going for them make for long-term pointspread success. The Bengals fit the bill. They've given the Giants and Cowboys everything they can handle the past 3 weeks and along with a loss to the Browns where they were -3 in turnovers and playing without Palmer. Palmer is back the Bengals are showing signs of life. I expect him to have even more confidence after testing his arm out under live fire last week. There is no question that Cincy will be the better motivated team and while the Jets are off to a decent start, they are not a special team that would cause us to back off here. They have some deficiencies in their pass defense and their running game has underachieved. The Bengal pass defense has been better than expected this year and are getting healthier which can make an immediate impact. They can hang with New York in this situation. A quick look at the line shows a ton of public action on the Jets but suspiciously the books have been forced to move the line in the opposite direction from -6.5 to -6. Like I've been saying all year, seen this movie before and no doubt the early smart money is on the Bengals. Don't be surprised if the Bengals pull a shocker here and I like this one enough to make a 2nd Top Play which is rare. Take Cincinnati +6 for a 5* Top Play.

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MADDUX SPORTS

5 units on Jacksonville & Denver  Over 48
3 units on Oakland  +7
3 units on Tampa Bay -1.5
3 units on Atlanta +3
3 units on Arizona +5

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EZ WINNERS

5* Houston -3

5* Seattle -1.5

3* Atlanta +3

2* St. Louis +14

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Andre Gomes

HOU -3.0 vs MIA

Double-Dime Bet

If we look to the standings, there are 4 teams with 0-4 or worse records: Texans, Bengals, Lions and Rams. Well, I just don't want to be disrespectful for the other three teams, but the Texans are on a superior level. This team suffered with the Hurricane Ike earlier in the season, and I'm talking about the lack of concentration that the team should have on the football.

After the unexpected bye week, the Texans lost against the Jaguars and the Colts in two games that the Texans actually outplayed those teams. Against the Jags, they had +11 total yards than the Jags and last week they had +77 total yards than the Colts! The defeat against Indianapolis was a miracle, in a game where the Texans leaded 27-10, and in a couple of minutes they blew up the lead in a dismal loss. The good news for a bettor perspective is that they play again at home, which is a strong spot for them.

Matt Schaubb, unfortunately for the Texans, missed last game (QB Rosenfels screw up against the Colts with 2 awful turnovers) and he's back for this game. Schaubb after bad performances bounced back against the Jags and performed nicely with 3 TD's and 119.5 QB rating, and with Andre Johnson playing well, the Texans have a balance offense.


Steve Slaton has breathed new life into a dying running game, with 285 yards and a 5-yard average per carry. If Ahman Green stays healthy and runs like he did against the Colts, he'll be a nice complement to Slaton. Both are good receivers out of the backfield and the Texans have the right tool to make much damage.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins suddenly are one of the biggest surprises on the league. They slaughtered the Patriots on their own field with a huge upset win and last week they had repeated the same, beating the Chargers at home 17-10.

The key was the Wildcat formation, with which Miami took advantage of the lack of preparation of the opponents to counter this system. But the surprise factor won't last forever and the Texans should be for sure more prepared that the Chargers and Patriots.:

"They're causing a lot of problems because basically you're preparing for two offensive football teams," Texans coach Gary Kubiak said of the Dolphins. "It's not only that they're doing something different. They're running their other offense pretty darn well, too. So, all of a sudden, your preparation is doubled."


The Dolphins average 126 yards a game and a 4.3-yard average per carry. Ronnie Brown has 286 yards, a 4.9-yard average per carry and six touchdowns. He and Ricky Williams (189) are the backs in the wildcat formation and both were the key players on the 2 wins by the Dolphins.

Although the Texans are ranked in 26th rush defense with 138.8 yards allowed, they've improved against the run in the last two games, in which they excelled at, containing Jacksonville's Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and Indianapolis' Joseph Addai, so I'm expecting a well prepared team to contain the Dolphins' running football.

Miami is overlooked in this game, the surprise factor will not be the same for this game, and we must not forget that in the last game the Chargers were in a bad spot for them: first trip to the East in a earlier game for them, here the evidences: QB Rivers completed only 46.4% of the Passes and the Chargers went 1-3 on the Red Zone Efficiency, and 0-1 on Goal To Go Efficiency.

I expect a huge effort of the Texans for this game, they need badly to win a ballgame which they already deserved, and they will face a team which comes from two upset wins, therefore a letdown is the most likely scenario. I will take the Texans in here for my first double dime pick of the season!


IND -3.0 (-125) vs BAL

DEN / JAC Over 48.0

TAM -1.5 vs CAR

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Larry Ness

Las Vegas Insider: 4-0 in NFL

Seattle Seahawks

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King Creole

HOU -3.0 vs MIA

3* BEST BET on: HOUSTON TEXANS

*If needed, the sharp player would make sure (buy?) his line is -2.5 or less.

It's 'Bubble Burst' time for our hometown Dolphins. Off H-U-G-E back to back UNDERDOG wins, the database tells us to fade these overachieving teams in their next game.3-12 ATS since 1982 for ALL NFL teams off BB SU wins as a dog of +6 points or higher (in both games) against an opponent that's off a SU loss. These teams are 1-6 ATS since 1005.... and DOGS of < 7 points are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS (Dolphins).

If it's Game #5 of the NFL season, and you still haven't won a game yet.... it's time to most teams to break out with a BIG win. That's the case for the Texans, who are off a couple of hard-luck losses in a row... an are 0-4 SU so far in 2008.25-8 ATS since 1908 for All GAME FIVE winless teams.... and 13-3 ATS since the 2003 season. Our qualifiers this week in those 13-3 ATS System are HOUSTON, DETROIT, and ST LOUIS. Home teams to PARTICULARLY well in this scenario.... as they have gone a PERFECT 9-0 ATS since the 2001 season (TEXANS).

There's a significant line swing in regards to the pointspread in this game. In a two-week period, Houston has gone from home dogs of +4.5 points to home favs of -3 points.17-6 ATS since 1999: ALL NFL home favorites of -3 > points playing off a home game in which they were a DOG of +4 or more points. On a more recent note, these hosts arte 6-1 ATS in the last 3 years. Bring in a host who LOST that last game, and the original 178-6 ATS set improves to 10-2 ATS.... and a PERFECT 3-0 ATS in the last 3 years.

Now, let's take a look at last week's opponents for each team. Miami upset the San Diego Chargers last week... while Houston lost to division rival Indianapolis Colts.8-1 ATS in GAME 7 or less since the 2002 season for teams who lost to the COLTS last week as a home underdog (TEXANS).... when they are taking on an opponent off a SU win.3-12 ATS for all road underdogs who beat the CHARGERS last week (Dolphins). Or even BETTER: 0-10 ATS since 1984 for road dogs of < 8 points off a SU DOG win over the CHARGERS (Dolphins).

With the 2 Big Dog wins for Miami, they covered the pointspread by 13 points last week (they were dogs of +6 and won by 7).... and they covered the pointspread by 37.5 points against the Patriots (they were dogs of +12.5 and won by 25).0-10 ATS in the HISTORY of our database: ANY NFL team off an ATS home win of +10 or more points... and an ATS road win of +35 or more points (Dolphins).

Despite losing their last 2 games, the Houston offense looked pretty good... scoring 27 points in each game (vs the Colts and Jags). This situation hasn't happened very often when these hard-luck losers take on a decent team in their next game. But the results from the database clearly identify who to put your money on.
4-0 ATS since 1980 for NFL teams off BB SU losses in which they scored 27+ points in each game (TEXANS) when they take on an opponent with a current winning percentage of .500 or better (Dolphins).

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RON RAYMOND

5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!

Bears / Falcons Over 43.5


5* NFL UPSET SPECIAL BEST BET

Jaguars +3.5

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Vernon Croy

25 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Cowboys vs Cardinals Over 50

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have this game hitting 60 points hands down Sunday afternoon. Arizona is averaging 29.4 ppg this season while the Cowboys are averaging 30.2 ppg and the O/U is 16-6 for the Cardinals in their last 22 games as a dog. The O/U is 12-3 for the Cardinals in their last 15 games after a ATS win and the O/U is 5-1 for the Cowboys in their last 6 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys defense has given up an average of 25.25 ppg over their last 4 games and they will give up at least 25 points against this Cardinals offense that has averaged 31 ppg over their last 4 games. Both of these teams can strike very quickly and I look for s shoot-out Sunday afternoon so take the Over as my NFL Total of the Year.

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Dominic Brando

13-5 NFL run

100 Unit Golden Star Lock: OAKLAND RAIDERS +8/-120
100 Unit Golden Star Lock: BALTIMORE RAVENS +5/-120
100 Unit Golden Star Lock: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4/-115
100 Unit Golden Star Lock: ARIZONA CARDINALS +6/-125
100 Unit Golden Star Lock: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS PICK/-120

50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: OAKLAND RAIDERS +275
50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: BALTIMORE RAVENS +185
50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +165
50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: ARIZONA CARDINALS +190
50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -125

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Stephen Nover

DEN / JAC Over 48.0

Double-Dime Bet

The Broncos pass well and the Jaguars have the potential to run well. That goes hand-in-hand with each team's major defensive weakness.

The Broncos surrendered 198 yards rushing to Larry Johnson two weeks ago in a shocking loss to the Chiefs. Denver ranks 29th in defense and 25th in points allowed. The Broncos' undersized defense can't stop good running backs.

The Jagaurs have two good ones, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. The key for Jacksonville is a banged-up offensive line that is getting more healthy. The Jaguars have scored 51 points in their last two games as their offense heats up.

Denver should put up plenty of points against a banged-up Jacksonville secondary. Behind strong-armed Jay Cutler, the Broncos are averaging nearly 30 points a game and rank second in yards and in passing yards per game.

Trend-wise there are strong indications to an 'over,' too. The Jaguars have gone 'over' in 11 of their last 13 road games. The Broncos are 20-6 to the 'over' in their last 26 games, including 4-1 this season.


STL +14.0 vs WAS

Double-Dime Bet

St. Louis doesn't have much going, offensively or defensively, but this is an outstanding situation for the Rams. St. Louis was idle last week. Fiery Jim Haslett replaces the ineffectual Scott Linehan. His first move was to restore Marc Bulger back to the starting quarterback spot, thus greatly improving team morale.

The Redskins are in a flat spot following tremendous upset division road victories against Dallas and Philadelphia. Those games obviously took a toll on the Redskins, physically and mentally. It will be hard for them to take the winless Rams seriously.

Leonard Little is healthy for the Rams. That's huge because he's a premier pass rusher. He elevates the Rams' entire defense. Washington hasn't committed a turnover in five games. What are the odds of going a sixth straight game without an interception or fumble?

The Redskins also have key defensive injuries. Their best pass rusher, Jason Taylor, and best cornerback, Shawn Springs, missed last week's game. The Rams can keep the chains moving with stud running back Steven Jackson.

Keep in mind, too, that in the parity-filled NFL road underdogs of 10 or more points are 7-0 against the spread this season.


CHI -3 vs ATL

Double-Dime Bet

The Falcons are a surprising 3-2, but the Bears have too much defense and savvy for Atlanta.

Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has shown a lot of poise and, at times, flashes of greatness. But he's going to have problems with the Bears' well-coached veteran defense that is at full force now with the return of defensive tackle Tommie Harris, who is a difference-maker.

Ryan has received a lot of attention, but very quietly Bears quarterback Kyle Orton is playing extremely well. He's thrown for 801 yards and seven touchdowns during his last three games. The Bears are 14-5 during the last 19 times Orton has started.

The Bears have played stiff competion - Indianapolis, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. The Falcons own home wins versus Detroit and Kansas City - two of the three worst teams in the NFL - and a crippled Green Bay squad.

The Falcons have failed to produce during the two times they've stepped up and faced tough defenses. They were beaten by identical 24-9 scores against Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Bears' defense is just as tough as those two teams.

The Bears shouldn't be bothered playing in a dome setting either. They just beat the Lions in Detroit last Sunday, 34-7.

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KILLER MOVE

JACKSONVILLE (GOM)

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Dr. Bob

NY JETS (-8.0) 24 Cincinnati 16

The 0-5 Bengals showed signs of life last week in Dallas and that game triggers a nice buy signal on Cincy. The Bengals apply to a very good 24-3 ATS subset of a 62-24 ATS situation that is based on last week’s competitive loss while the Jets apply to a negative 19-64-1 ATS situation. The Jets have obviously been a much better team than Cincinnati so far this season, but the Bengals are certainly better than what they’ve shown offensively so far and the last two games in which Carson Palmer has played have produced 23 points against the Giants in New York and 22 points at Dallas (Palmer sat out the Bengals’ 12-20 home loss to Cleveland). Palmer has been downgraded to out for this game and the Bengals' offense is likely to struggle with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, as he was horrible in the 12-20 loss to Cleveland (3.7 yards per pass play) and has averaged just 4.8 yppp in his career. The Jets, while better than average defensively overall, are just average against the pass, but Fitzpatrick likely won't be able to take advantage of that. The Bengals could be a pretty good team once the offense gets going when Palmer returns to health, as Cincy’s defense has played very well in allowing just 5.2 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. New York is just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), so Cincinnati actually has an advantage over the Jets’ offense. My math model favors New York by 13 points with Fitzgerald playing. The situations favoring the Bengals are very strong but the line value is now heavily in favor of the Jets. I'll pass.


WASHINGTON (-13.5) 30 St. Louis 14

Bad teams usually play much better coming out of their bye week and the Rams apply to a 25-5 ATS situation that is based on that premise, in addition to a 157-89-5 ATS situation that plays on bad teams that have been bad offensively in recent games. Washington, meanwhile, applies to a negative 22-58-2 ATS letdown situation based on their recent success and if ever there were a letdown situation for the Redskins, this would be it. It will be extremely tough for Washington to get charged for this game after consecutive upset wins over division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia. The Redskins could letdown and still win big based on how bad the Rams have been. St. Louis has been out-scored by an average of 11-37 while being out-gained 4.5 yards per play to 6.6 yppl and Washington is 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively. My math model favors Washington by 23 points in this game, so even a huge letdown should result in a pretty easy win.


Oakland vs. NEW ORLEANS (-7.5)

This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here


HOUSTON (-3.0) 24 Miami 21

Houston started the season with 3 straight road games, the last of which was a heart-breaking overtime loss in Jacksonville, and their home opener was ruined last week by blowing a 20 point 4th quarter lead. The Texans are better than their 0-4 record suggests but they’ve been just average offensively so far this season and have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) – which is surprising given how well the young defense played down the stretch last season. Houston has potential to be a good team, but Miami is proving that they are a good team. The Dolphins beat New England and San Diego in consecutive games and now rate at 0.2 yppl better than average on both sides of the ball. Miami has been horrible in special teams, but my math model favors the Dolphins by 1 point in this game. Miami, however, applies to a negative 22-50-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their consecutive upset wins and Houston applies to a solid 55-24-4 ATS home bounce-back situation. With the math favoring Miami and the situations favor Houston I’ll just pass on this game.


Baltimore 18 INDIANAPOLIS (-4.0) 17

The Colts are a below average team that was lucky to win at Houston last week after trailing by 20 points late in the game (3 turnovers by backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels spurred the comeback win). Indy has been just average offensively (5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and Peyton Manning is clearly off his game – although he is improving after a miserable opening game against Chicago. The Indianapolis defense has allowed 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team and that unit has been 0.4 yppl worse than average in two games without injured NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. Baltimore’s defense isn’t quite as strong without CB Samari Rolle and S Dawan Landry, who both only played the first two games, but the Ravens have still by 0.8 yppl better than average defensively in their last two games (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team) and they have an edge over the Colts’ offense. The Ravens aren’t much offensively, averaging just 4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but my math model favors Baltimore by ½ a point in this contest and would only favor the Colts by 3 points if Manning snaps out of his slump and goes back to his form of recent years. The Ravens plus the points are a good value play as long as the Ravens’ two injured backup cornerbacks Fabian Washington (he’s started the last two weeks but was injured last week) and Derrick Martin aren’t both out.


ATLANTA 23 Chicago (-2.5) 20

The Falcons have played well at home and last week they stepped up an beat a solid Packers team in Green Bay. I had Atlanta as a Strong Opinion in that game based on their ability to run the ball against a suspect Packers’ run defense, as rookie quarterback Matt Ryan needs a good rushing attack to be effective in the passing game. The Falcons are the league’s best running team, averaging 5.8 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team) and they should be able to run against a Bears defense that is much better defending the pass (0.9 yards per pass play better than average) than they are defending the run (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average defensive team). Atlanta’s defense is still bad, so the Bears’ mediocre attack should move the ball well, but my math model favors the Bears by 2 ½ points – so the line is fair. I’ll favor the Falcons to cover at home on the basis of a 74-27-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation, but they’ve followed every win with a bad game and that will keep me from playing them as a Best Bet. I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion at +3 or more (-115 odds or better).


MINNESOTA (-13.0) 30 Detroit 17

Make the predicted score 30-14 if Jon Kitna does not start for Detroit.
Detroit has been unbelievably bad so far this season, getting out-scored by an average of 16.5 to 36.8 and out-gained 4.6 yards per play to 7.0 yppl. Minnesota is coming off a thrilling Monday night win over New Orleans, but the Vikings are still just 2-3 and can’t afford to take any game lightly. Detroit applies to a 49-19-3 ATS contrary situation that plays on winless teams as big dogs, so I’m not going to go against the Lions here, but my math model favors Minnesota by 16 points if Detroit quarterback Jon Kitna is healthy enough to play (he missed practice on Wednesday) and I’d favor the Vikings by about 19 points if Dan Orlovsky is forced to play (and by about 17 ½ points with Drew Stanton in). The Math favors Minnesota regardless of who quarterbacks the Lions, but the situation favors the big dog here and I’ll pass.


TAMPA BAY (-1.5) 22 Carolina 16

Tampa Bay covered the spread for their 4th consecutive game last week at Denver, and their 13-16 loss as a 3 ½ point dog should have them motivated to play well at home against the division rival Panthers. Tampa coach Jon Gruden is 27-12-2 ATS in his career as a favorite or pick following a loss and the Buccaneers are also 25-6-1 ATS in regular season home games when not favored by 3 points or more, including a 30-21 win as a small favorite against the Packers a few weeks ago. Carolina is a solid team that I rate as better than average on both sides of the ball, but the Bucs are a good defensive team too and they should get a boost from having Jeff Garcia back at quarterback in place of the interception prone Brian Griese. Griese threw 6 interceptions in 147 passes this season while Garcia has thrown just 6 picks on 385 passes with the Bucs the last two seasons and has one of the NFL’s all-time lowest interception percentages. My math model does favor Carolina by 2 points, but Tampa Bay would have an edge if Garcia plays close to last year’s standards. The reason for liking the Bucs in this game is a very strong 93-37-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors Tampa Bay and a negative 20-55 ATS road letdown angle that applies to the Panthers. I’d consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at -1 or pick and I’d take Tampa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or better.


DENVER (-3.5) 28 Jacksonville 24

Denver is 4-1 but the Broncos have won 3 games by 3 points or less and they have a porous defense that’s allowed 6.4 yards per play this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). The offense is just as good as the defense is bad, as Jay Cutler and company have averaged 6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. The offense won’t be as good this week without top running back Selvin Young (266 yards at 5.7 ypr) and productive TE Tony Scheffler, who has compiled 259 yards on the 23 passes thrown to him (11.3 yards per attempt). Cutler has averaged a good 7.4 yards per pass attempt throwing to everyone else, but his numbers should still be good in this game against a Jacksonville defense that can’t defend the pass (7.2 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average defense) and is also worse than average defending the run. The Jaguars have been hurt offensively this season due to the loss of 3 starting offensive linemen, as normally very productive backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have combined for just 3.6 ypr. Quarterback David Garrard is also struggling (just 5.4 yppp) and the Jags rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively after 5 games. That unit should put up better than average numbers today against Denver’s bad defense, but my math model still favors the Broncos by 7 points in this game. There are no situations favoring either team, but Denver is now just 7-27 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points the week after a victory in the post-John Elway era, including 0-2 ATS this season. I’ll pass.


Green Bay vs. SEATTLE (-2.0)

This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here


Philadelphia (-5.0) 20 SAN FRANCISCO 19

The Eagles have out-gained their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 4.7 yppl but have a 2-3 record to show for it after consecutive upset losses to Chicago and Washington. Losing consecutive games as a favorite is not generally a good omen and the Eagles apply to a negative 45-87-3 ATS situation that is based on that premise, but Philly’s deceiving record makes them an underrated team. San Francisco is a decent team that I rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively, 0.1 yppl better than average defensively and 1.4 points better than average in special teams, but my math model favors the Eagles by 7 ½ points in this game. In addition to the situation going against the Eagles, the Niners apply to a solid 122-57-8 ATS statistical indicator, so I’ll lean with the Niners despite the fact that the line should be higher.


Dallas (-5.0) 27 ARIZONA 25

Dallas is clearly one of the top 3 teams in the NFL (along with the Giants and Redskins) but the Cowboys apply to a negative 22-57-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week while Arizona applies to a solid 54-20-5 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Those angles are 8-1 ATS for the home dog when both apply to the same game and Arizona is certainly capable of competing in this game. However, the absence of star WR Anquan Boldin, who has 366 yards on 35 passes thrown to him, is tough to overcome even with Larry Fitzgerald still available for Kurt Warner to thrown passes to. The problem is that teams can now simply double-cover Fitzgerald without having to worry about Boldin. Arizona has been 1.5 yards per pass play better than average for the season (7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average team), but the Cardinals were just 0.1 yppp better than average last week against Buffalo without Boldin (6.1 yppp against a Bills defense that would allow 6.0 yppp on the road to an average team). Arizona’s defense also hasn’t been as good without sack specialist Bertrand Berry the last 2 games (he had 3 sacks in the first 3 games) and my math model favors Dallas by 8 points after adjusting for Boldin and Berry. I’ll still lean with Arizona based on the strong technical support.


SAN DIEGO (-5.0) 25 New England 19

The Patriots’ 13-38 home loss to Miami in week 3 appears to be an aberration, as their other 3 performances have been pretty consistent, so I’ve decided to discard that performance to see how the Patriots would stack up against the Chargers in this game. New England’s offense wasn’t as good last week as the 30 points they scored against the 49ers suggests, as the Patriots averaged just 4.8 yards per play in that game against a Niners’ defense that would allow 5.1 yppl at home to an average team. That -0.3 yppl rating is the same as their offensive rating for the 3 games other than the Miami game and I believe that is the best rating for the Patriots’ offense going forward. There is a huge difference in the Patriots’ rating with and without the Miami game, as New England rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average using all 4 games this season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow average 5.0 yppl against an average team), but their defensive rating is 0.2 yppl better than average if you exclude the Miami game. A bit better than average defensively is how I projected the Patriots’ defense before the season started and I think they are more likely to be around that rating going forward. The Chargers have out-gained their opponents 6.0 yppl to 5.5 yppl this season and they rate at 0.9 yppl better than average offensively and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense. It appears that big play WR Chris Chambers will probably not play this week after severely spraining his ankle last week and San Diego would be 0.7 yppl better than average offensively without Chambers. After putting all those numbers together and throwing in special teams (New England has the best special teams in the NFL) I get San Diego by 6 points with a total of 43 ½ points, which is right around the number – so it looks like the oddsmakers excused the Patriots’ one bad outing as a fluke too. There are no significant situations favoring either side in this game and I'll call for a 6 point Chargers' victory.


NY Giants (-7.5) 24 CLEVELAND 17

The Browns have not come close to resembling the high-scoring team of last season, as quarterback Derek Anderson has simply not been able to connect with his receivers down the field. Anderson has thrown the ball to star WR Braylon Edwards 30 times this season for a total of just 95 yards as Edwards is up against double and triple teaming. Getting Donte Stallworth in the lineup this week will help, as he has yet to play and will cause defenses to shade a safety towards his side, but Cleveland still is probably a below average offense that won’t have too many opportunities to score against a very good Giants defense that has allowed just 4.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The Giants are clicking on offense too at 6.8 yppl, but Cleveland’s defense has been solid since allowing 7.9 yppl to the Cowboys in their opener (they’ve now allowed 5.5 yppl for the season against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). My math model favors New York by 13 ½ points, but bad teams coming off their bye week tend to be very good bets as big home underdogs. In fact, teams with losing records (after 3 games or more) coming off their bye week are an incredible 24-3 ATS as home underdogs of 6 points. The Giants have covered 10 straight on the road, but I don’t want to mess with a 24-3 ATS situation so I’ll pass.

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King Creole

ST LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2* Play on: OVER

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2** Play on: OVER

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
3*OVER THE TOTAL


GM 1:
The winless Rams return from their Bye week with a new Head Coach (Jim Haslett) and a new starting QB (back to Bulger). They qualify in multiple solid high-scoring situations based on that week of rest.4-0 O/U in the last 3 years for WINLESS road teams playing off their BYE week. And.... 5-1 O/U in the last 4 years for road teams with REST off a DOUBLE-DIGIT home loss.Even if we throw out the ?with rest? situation, the numbers are still good.GAME FIVE non-div teams off a 0-4 SU start are 12-3 O/U... and 5-0 O/U as road dogs of 9 > pts.

This game has the highest line (Wash -13 > pts) on the NFL week six schedule. That works for me. 15-3 O/U since 1995 for all OCTOBER non-division DD dogs (RAMS).

Washington enters the game on a hot 4-game winning streak, with the last 2 wins as division dogs. In the last 4 years, OCTOBER home favs on a 3+ game winning streak are an amazing 16-3 O/U... and these teams went a PERFECT 6-0 O/U last season. We?re talking ?Pedal to the Medal?! When we eliminate the streak from our query and insert the previous DOG win, the numbers are just as good.10-2 O/U since 2001 for GAME SIX home teams playing off a DOG win... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last 5 years.

Combining the current form of BOTH teams seals the deal: In this decade, GAME FIVE or greater home favs off 3 SUATS wins are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U vs an opp off 3 SUATS losses in a row. The Redskins LOVE beating up on shitty teams (6-0 O/U L10Y favs vs non-div .250 < foes).


GM 2:
Green Bay heads out west on a 3-game losing streak, with the last loss at home as a favorite against the Falcons. A 90% System tells us to look for the OVER.9-1 O/U since 2000 for Conference road dogs off BB SU losses, with the last loss as a home fav of -5 > points.

Numerous one-sided team trends for Green bay help to state our case.11-0 O/U away in between home games... 9-0 O/U vs an opp off a road loss of 7 > pts... 4-0 O/U away vs NFC West teams.

The Packer defense has been leaking oil lately, allowing 25,27, 30, and 27 points.11-2 O/U since 2002 for all GAME FIVE > road teams after allowing 25+ points in each of their last 4 games. Our numbers shoot up to 9-0 O/U vs fellow conference opponents.

Seattle has gone OVER in EACH of their first 4 games this year (4-0 O/U).GAME FIVE teams off 4 straight 'OVERS' are 6-1 O/U since 1998 vs an opponent off a SU loss. Last week's road loss was ugly for the Seahawks, as they lost to the Giants by a score of 44-6. That result is a good sign for us.In the last 4 years, ALL NFL teams are a PERFECT 10-0 O/U off a SU road loss of 35 or more points.

In a final variation that's already gone 2-0 O/U this year, we seal the deal.15-3 O/U in the last 3 years for ALL teams off a SU road loss in whcih they allowed 42 or more points (SEAHAWKS) In the last 12 months, these teams are a PERFECT 12-0 O/U. Your 2 winners this season were Jets/Cardinals OVER and Cardinals/Bills OVER (and we were on BOTH of em).


GM 3:
The bar is set high for this week?s Top OVER, but the timing is right. This week?s high OU line will NOT scare us off. Since 1984, OCTOBER home dogs with an OU line of 49 > pts are 12-3 O/U... and a PERFECT 5-0 for NFC home teams.

With a big 41-17 win behind them, the Cardinals are primed for more high-scoring results.NFL Underdogs off a SU home win in which they scored 40+ points are 12-3 O/U since 2004... and a PERFECT 7-0 O/U in the last 4 seasons.

Arizona also figures to ?let it ALL hang out? on Sunday with their Bye week on deck.So far in the 2008 season, HOME teams are 7-1 O/U before their BYE week. From a team perspective, this also holds up well as the Cards are 5-0 O/U before their Bye in the last 5 years.

Dallas enters this game on a run in which they have scored 24 > pts in EACH of their first 5 games. You think the Arizona ?D? is going to slow them down? Hell NO.In the last 4 years, GAME SIX teams are 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 24+ pts in each of their last 3 games... and a PERFECT 5-0 O/U after scoring 24+ pts in each of their last 4 games.

Dallas barely got by the Bengals last week, and have actually dropped each of their last 2 games ATS.
Since 2002, NFL road teams are 12-1-1 O/U off BB home ATS losses... if they WON their last game in straight-up fashion. The Boys were favored by -16 against the Bengals, and won 31-22.Last 10 years: 7-0 O/U for non-div road favs of fa SU non-div home win but ATS loss as a fav of -14 > points.Play this one ASAP. Late afternoon final score in the desert: 34-27.

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Teddy Covers

20* Chargers

Reg
Bucs -1
Falcons +3
Jags/Broncos Over 48
Cardinals +5

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Nathan Armstrong

5* Den/Jack Under
3* Jacksonville
3* Green Bay
3* Giants
2* Jets

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Brandon Lang

15 Dime Texans (buy the 1/2 point down to 2-1/2)

15 Dime Cowboys

15 Dime Rams

10 Dime 6-point Teaser - Raiders and Jets

5 Dime Eagles

FREE - Chargers

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IndianCowboy

Chicago Bears / Atlanta Falcons
Pick: 3 units Over 43.5 (POD)

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Two Minute Warning

Best Bets
Investor

Oakland +7
Baltimore +4 1/2
Detroit +13 1/2
St. Louis +13 1/2
Denver -3 1/2
San Francisco +5
Arizona +5

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David Malinsky

5* Dallas
4* St Louis
4* Jville/Denver Under

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Sports Wise Guys


5 Star Picks (Week 6):



Seattle -2 over Green Bay
Chicago -2.5 over Atlanta
New England +6 over San Diego
Philadelphia/San Francisco Over 43
New Orleans/Oakland Under 47.5

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