Friday Service Plays

Friday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

MEMPHIS +6.5 over Louisville

The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in October and 1-5 ATS as non conf favs of less than 8 vs an opponent off a SU win, while Memphis is 7-1 ATS as non conf dogs of less than 9 and 15-3 ATS vs teams that average 425 ypg or more, plus the dog is 11-1 ATS the last 12 in the series. The Louisville cardinals have been struggling this year as they are just 2-2 despite outgaining 3 of their 4 opponents by over 200 ypg. Their most impressive win was 38-29 decision over Kansas State, but Cardinal fans shouldn't get too excited over that one as the Wildcats were just destroyed by Texas Tech 58-28 at home. The Cardinal defense has been stellar this year, allowing just 252 ypg overall and 71 ypg on the ground. That defense has yet to face the offensive potential that Memphis has. The Tigers comeinto this game ranked 16th in total offense, 19th in passing and they put up 28 ppg.  The defense for the Tigers is ranked 80th overall and 73rd in points allowed (26.2 ppg), but after allowing 83 points in the first 2 games, the Tigers defense has stepped it up a bit allowing just 74 total points in their last 4 games. The Cardinal offense has been good and balanced this year, but costly miscues at the wrong time has kept this offense from being great. Memphis has gone 5-1 ATS the last 6 in the series, including 3-0 ATS in the last 3 played here, plus they are playing with great confidence right now, so look for them to pull the outright upset vs a Louisville team that has been very incosistent this year. Memphis wins a tight one.

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SPORTS ADVISORS

NLCS

L.A. Dodgers (3-1) at Philadelphia (4-1)

The Phillies, who played long ball to rally past the Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series last night, send veteran Brett Myers (11-13, 4.48) to the hill this afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will look to rebound from its first postseason defeat of 2008 behind Chad Billingsley (17-10, 3.08 ERA).

Philadelphia quickly erased a 2-0 deficit in the sixth inning Thursday, getting a two-run, no-out homer from Chase Utley, followed two batters later by Pat Burrell’s solo shot, which proved to be the game-winner. The home team has now won all nine meetings between these teams this year, with the Phillies outscoring the Dodgers 30-8 in their five victories at Citizens Bank. Going back several years, the Dodgers are 8-21 in their last 29 visits to Philly.

The Dodgers are still on runs of 22-9 overall, 10-5 on the road, 10-1 in the second game of a series and 4-1 versus right-handed starters. However, Joe Torre’s troops have dropped eight straight games to N.L. East foes, including the five losses in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Phillies are on hot streaks of 20-7 overall, 21-6 at Citizens Bank Park, 22-8 versus right-handed starters, 6-0 against the N.L. West and 5-1 in Game 2 of a series.

Billingsley delivered a gem in his first career postseason start eight days ago at Wrigley Field, giving up just one run on five hits and a walk while striking out five over 6 2/3 innings en route to a 10-3 victory in Game 2 of the NLDS. Going back to the regular season, the hard-throwing right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his last seven starts, and L.A. is 6-1 during this stretch.

Including the victory at Chicago, Billingsley is 7-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 17 road starts, but L.A. lost all four of his no-decisions on the highway. Also, he faced the Phillies at Citizens Bank on Aug. 25 and pitched well, giving up three runs on seven hits in six innings, but he got no offensive support in a 5-0 defeat. Including two starts in 2007, Billingsley is 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA against Philadelphia.

Myers was sensational in the Phillies’ 5-2 victory over the Brewers in Game 2 back on Oct. 2, allowing two runs on two hits and three walks over seven strong innings. The right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 13 trips to the hill.

Myers is 8-5 with a sensational 2.98 ERA in 15 home starts this year, including that 5-0 victory over Billingsley and the Dodgers on Aug. 25 when he scattered nine hits and three walks over seven shutout innings. Myers also faced the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Aug. 14 and allowed three runs in seven innings, losing 3-1. For his career, he’s 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 12 games (11 starts) versus the Dodgers.

The over is 5-0-1 in Billingsley’s last six outings overall, 5-1-1 in his last seven on the road and 6-2-1 in his last nine Friday outings, but the under is 2-0-1 in his three starts against the Phillies (2-0 in Philadelphia). For Myers, the under is on streaks of 9-3-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 6-2-1 when he faces the Dodgers overall, 4-0-1 when he pitches against L.A. at home and 15-7-2 when he battles the N.L. West.

The under is 5-1 in the last six clashes between these teams and 10-2 in the last 12 battles in Philadelphia, with Game 1 easily staying below the posted price. Also, the under for the Phillies is on runs of 6-0 in the playoffs, 7-0 against winning teams, 7-1 versus right-handed starters and 5-2 on Fridays. However, the Dodgers continue to sport over streaks of 5-2 in road playoff games, 8-3-1 in the second game of a series and 6-3-1 versus winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILDELPHIA and UNDER


ALCS

Boston (3-1) at Tampa Bay (3-1)

Having survived their first-ever playoff series, the Rays continue their quest for their first American League pennant when they host the defending World Series champs in Game 1 of the best-of-7 American League Championship Series. James Shields (14-8, 3.56) is scheduled to start for Tampa Bay opposite Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90) at Tropicana Field.

The Rays took out the White Sox in four games in the best-of-5 American League Divisional Series, clinching it with Monday’s 6-2 victory in Chicago. Tampa Bay swept both home games in the series by scores of 6-4 and 6-2, and Joe Maddon’s club has now won 55 of its last 72 contests at Tropicana Field. The Rays are on additional runs of 4-1 overall, 6-0 against A.L. East rivals, 40-18 versus right-handed starters, 20-6 on Fridays and 9-4 following a day off.

The Red Sox advanced to their second consecutive ALCS with Monday’s 3-2 victory over the Angels in Game 4, with the winning run scoring with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Although Boston won two playoff games in Los Angeles, they’re still just 41-42 on the highway this season, including 1-8 at Tropicana Field. On the bright side, the BoSox carry hot streaks of 22-7 in the playoffs, 8-3 in ALCS contests, 5-0 in road playoff games, 11-2 in series-openers, 6-1 on Fridays and 39-17 following a day off.

These rivals squared off 18 times this year, with Tampa Bay holding a slight 10-8 edge, which proved to be the difference in the A.L. East race, with the Rays winning the division by two games. The home team won the first 13 meetings this year and finished 15-3.

Matsuzaka, who went 2-1 with a 5.03 ERA in four playoff starts last year, got a no-decision in Boston’s 7-5 victory at the Angels in Game 2, as he gave up three runs on eight hits and three walks in five innings. Including that outing, the Japanese native is 9-0 with a 2.56 ERA in 14 road starts, 12 of which Boston won. In fact, the Red Sox are 24-6 with Dice-K on the bump in 2008, and they’re 43-20 in his last 63 starts.

Matsuzaka has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in 26 of 30 starts this season, including the last seven in a row and all three 2008 starts versus the Rays. In those three contests against Tampa Bay, Matsuzaka went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA (1-0, 1.80 ERA in two outings at the Trop). In his two-year career, Matsuzaka has faced the Rays eight times, going 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA.

Shields picked up a victory in his – and his team’s – first postseason contest, but it wasn’t easy as he yielded three runs on six hits and a walk in 6 1/3 innings, topping the White Sox 6-4 in Game 1 at home. Not counting a one-inning tune-up start against the Tigers in the regular-season finale, Shields has pitched at least six innings in eight consecutive trips to the mound.

Shields was Tampa’s most dominant pitcher at home, where he is 10-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 18 starts, with the Rays going 15-3. Against Boston this year, he went 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four starts, but both victories came at home where he allowed a combined two earned runs and seven hits in 15 1/3 innings (1.17 ERA).

The over is 4-0 in Matsuzaka’s last four starts against Tampa Bay (3-0 this season), 6-2 in Shields’ last eight outings overall and 4-0 in Shields’ last four starts at the Trop.

For the Red Sox, the under is on steaks of 4-1-1 overall, 8-2 in series-openers and 7-3 on Fridays, but the over is 5-1-2 in the team’s last eight ALCS games. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay sports over runs of 19-7 at home, 13-6 following a victory, 15-7 against division foes and 5-1 on Friday. As for this rivalry, the total has alternated in each of the last 10 meetings, with the most recent contest topping the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY


COLLEGE FOOTBALL


Louisville (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Memphis (3-3, 2-2-1 ATS)

Memphis will try to make it four straight wins as the Tigers host Louisville inside the Liberty Bowl in a non-conference showdown between former conference rivals.

After three straight losses to open the season (1-2 ATS) Memphis has won three in a row (1-0-1 ATS), including a 33-30 road win at UAB last week, pushing as a three-point road chalk. The Tigers are third in Conference USA in total offense (462.7 yards per game) and rushing (190.5 yards per contest) and fifth in passing (272.2 ypg). RB Curtis Steele has ignited the offense during this three-game winning streak, running for 413 yards.

Louisville has had two weeks to stew over blowing a fourth-quarter lead at home to Connecticut, falling 26-21 as a 3½-point favorite. This will be the Cardinals’ first venture on the highway this season, and they come in healthy as QB Hunter Cantwell has recovered from an injured ankle and is slated to start tonight. Cantwell has been up and down this season, throwing for 876 yards with five TDs, but five INTs.

These rivals haven’t met since 2004, when Louisville went to Memphis and scored a thrilling 56-49 win, but failed to cover as a 13½-point favorite. The Cardinals have won five of the last six meetings between these schools since 1998, but they are just 1-5 ATS. In fact, the Cards are 8-2 SU in the last 10 series clashes but just 3-7 ATS. The underdog has cashed in nine of those 10 games, and the straight-up winner is just 3-7 ATS.

Louisville is on ATS streaks of 22-9 in non-conference games, 8-3 following a straight-up loss and 4-0 against Conference USA squads, but the Cardinals are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven October games and 0-4 ATS in their last four Friday kickoffs.

Memphis is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the Liberty Bowl and 2-5-3 ATS in its last 10 October outings.

The under is 5-1 in Louisville’s last six October games, but the over is 4-1 in its last five against a Conference USA team. For the Tigers, the over is 5-2 in their last seven overall and 15-7 in their last 22 following a straight-up win. Finally, the over has been the play in each of the last three Memphis-Louisville battles at the Liberty Bowl.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS

Gametimedecisions.com

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CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF

10* MEMPHIS over Louisville
*MEMPHIS 27 - Louisville 23

Louisville is taking to the road for the first time this season! And, while former Michigan defensive coordinator
Ron English deserves lots of credit for solidifying the shaky Cardinal defense, it is a fact that Louisville is an
unproven commodity on the road, where they were only 2-4 LY, with only one victory by more than four points.
Thus, the percentages appear to be against the Cards, who must show they’re capable of dealing with the
emerging Memphis offense featuring 6-3 juco QB Arkelon Hall (4 TDP last week at UAB), juco RB Curtis Steele
(578 YR, 6.4 ypc), and a tall and experienced cast of WRs. CKO scouts report the Tigers’ confidence is growing
following three straight victories (albeit vs. marginal competition), and proud Memphis is 16-8 when a home dog
the last 10+Ys.


WINNING POINTS

Louisville over Memphis* by 3
Running and defense has not exactly been a formula we are accustomed to seeing from Louisville in the past, but it is the right way to slow down the Tigers and hit them at their weakest point. LOUISVILLE 27-24.


THE GOLD SHEET
Louisville 31 - MEMPHIS 30—Tigers have won 3 straight behind rapidlymaturing juco QB Arkelon Hall (4 TDP last week). Louisville defense improved under new coordinator Ron English, while vulnerable Memphis stop unit (allowing 5 ypc last 1+ seasons) will have to stack box against juking Card RS frosh RB Victor Anderson (390 YR on 8 ypc, 5 TDs in last 3 games). But major edge to host’s deep, experienced cast of WRs (five already have at least 1 TDC). TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: Louisville 22-18)


Pointwise

Louisville 30 - MEMPHIS 20 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Tiger "D" back to usual form vs Uab, winning in final 0:02, but being outstatted, despite 4 Hall TD passes, & Steele at 304 RYs last 2 wks. Cards have 564-187 RY edge last 2 outings,behind Powell & Anderson, & remember their 508-279 yd edge over UConn.

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Jim Feist

BOS Red Sox / TB Rays
Take: Over

The way to beat Daisuke Matsuzaka is to be patient and draw walks. Tampa Bay has already done this, with 11 walks in 15 innings against Daisuke Matsuzaka this season. Dice-K has pitched once this postseason and has a 5.40, as his game against the Angels sailed over the total in a 7-5 Boston win. Matsuzaka went just 5 innings allowing 8 hits and 3 walks. The OVER is 4-2 in the last 6 starts by Tampa Bay righty James Shields. This is a game indoors in a fine offensive park. Shields has thrown 20 innings against Boston this season, and has a 5.85 ERA against them. Paul Byrd will continue to be the emergency starter-long man out of the bullpen for Boston, which is a factor with someone like Matsuzaka throwing 100 pitches in 5 innings. "My arm doesn’t take long to warm up - I only throw 85 mph," said Byrd this week. Last month these teams played 3 games in this park and 2 went over the total, with scores of 13-5 and 10-3. In fact, the OVER is 4-2 the last 6 meetings between these teams in this park. Play the Red Sox/Rays over the total.

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Philadelphia w/Myers

The Phillies take on the Dodgers in Game Two of this NLCS series in Philadelphia this afternoon looking to go up 2-0 when Bret Myers take the mound against Los Angeles. Hurling in October has been profitable for Myers as evidenced by his 4-1 career mark, including 2-0 at home. He also enjoys taking on the Dodgers against whom he is 8-3 in his career team starts, including 8-1 in his last nine efforts. And finally, pitching at home has been much to his delight this season where his 2.98 ERA is more than tree full runs better than his 6.21 road ERA. Stay at home with Myers and Philadelphia here today.

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Jimmy The Moose

Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes
Prediction: Over

Both teams not expected to be good on defence especially the Panthers who will have a young inexperienced team on the ice. The over is a profitable 6-2-2 last 10 meetings overall between the clubs. The team's have played the over in 4 of the last 5 meetings in Carolina. Canes do have some fire power up front and should put up most of the goals tonight. Look for a high scoring affair. Play the Over.

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Tom Freese

Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues
Prediction: Nashville Predators

St. Louis finished last year by going 17-39 and they were 15-37 their last 52 conference games. Nashville has dominated the Blues going 21-5 the last 26 meetings. The Predators are 9-3 their last 12 games at St. Louis and they have won the last 5 meetings overall. We look for more of the same tonight. PLAY ON NASHVILLE

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Nostradamus

Fla/Car Over 6 +125
Chi/Rang Under 5.5 -130
Montreal +100
Nashville +100

CFL-Winnipeg -7
CFL-British Columbia -5

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Los Angeles at PHILADELPHIA 

We will come right back with another UNDER this afternoon in the Los Angeles-Philadelphia series, as the Phillies are now UNDER the total in ALL 5 games this postseason, and the Phillies are on a 3-8 UNDER clip their last 11 games dating back to the regular season.

The Dodgers have now been UNDER in 4 of their last 6 dating back to the regular season, and in this series, the UNDER has cashed in 9 of the last 11 games played at Citizens Bank Park.

Throw in the fact Brett Myers sports a 2.98 ERA at home this season, and in his 2 starts this season against Los Angeles he has worked 14 innings of 3 run ball, and I think the Dodgers are going to have a hard time mustering much off the Philly righty.

Chad Billingsley will counter for the Dodgers, and his 3.10 season ERA indicates that the Philadelphia bats will also have their troubles coming up with the big inning in this late day game.

Quick turnaround for the teams means that the pitchers once again have the decided advantage.

Pitchers in control in Game Two, as this one stays UNDER.

3♦ UNDER

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Bobby Maxwell

L.A. Dodgers at PHILADELPHIA -105

Today we're on the diamond with a comp winner on the Phillies as they host the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS.

Philadelphia got two homers to win the opener of the NLCS on Thursday when it seemed Derek Lowe and the Dodgers were rolling to a victory. For some reason, Los Angeles struggles in Philly and aren't going to be able to get to Phillies' starter Brett Myers (11-13, 4.48 ERA) in this late-afternoon contest.

The Phils got a two-run homer from Chase Utley to tie the game in the sixth inning and then Pat Burrell followed with a solo shot in the same frame to give Philadelphia a 3-2 lead it was able to hold down the stretch.

The home team has won all nine meetings between these two this year and the Dodgers are a lousy 8-21 in their last 29 visits to Philadelphia. Los Angeles has also lost eight straight games to N.L. East competition. The Phillies are on runs of 21-6 at home, 20-7 overall, 6-0 against the N.L. West and 22-8 against right-handers.

Myers was great in Game 2 against the Brewers, allowing two runs in seven innings of the 5-2 victory. He's got a 2.98 ERA in 15 home starts this year, including a 5-0 win over Chad Billingsley and the Dodgers. In his career, Myers is 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 12 games.

The Phillies have outscored the Dodgers 30-8 in their five home wins this season and they'll get the job done today. Play Philadelphia behind Myers in this one.

2♦ PHILADELPHIA

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Karl Garrett

Boston at TAMPA BAY

Have to head UNDER the total in the Boston-Tampa Bay game, as you are now at the point in the season where the pitching is just shutting down the hitting.

The last 4 National League postseason games have all stayed UNDER, and 6 of the 8 overall in the senior circut have played UNDER.

In the American League, the UNDER is on a 3-0-1 postseason clip, and 5-2-1 overall in the 8 postseason games played in the junior circut.

5 of the 9 games played between the teams this year at Tampa did stay UNDER the total, and 10 of the last 18 overall at the Trop have also played LOW.

Look for the pitchers to once again have the edge, as we stay UNDER the total in Game One of the ALCS.

2♦ UNDER

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Jeff Benton

For Friday, we’ll stay with the NLCS and look for Philadelphia to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-7 series.

Real simple premise here, folks: The Phillies have won 21 of their last 29 home games against the Dodgers, including all five this year by the combined score of 30-8. In fact, the home team is 9-0 in L.A.-Philadelphia matchups this year. That’s not a trend, folks; that’s a consistent pattern!

Also, Phillies starter Brett Myers has a sparkling 2.98 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this year, and that includes a 5-2 win over the Brewers six days ago. It also includes a 5-0 shutout of the Dodgers back in late August. Myers’ counterpart in that contest versus Los Angeles? Same as today, Dodgers right-hander Chad Billingsley. And while Billingsley is a solid pitcher who posted a solid road ERA this year (3.21), the fact remains that Los Angeles lost 10 of his 17 starts on the highway.

Bottom line: The Phillies stole one from the Dodgers last night, and with it they stole momentum. And considering L.A. has less than 18 hours to recover from that tough loss, I don’t see momentum swinging back. Lay the short price with Philadelphia.

3♦ PHILLIES

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Tony Weston

Yeah, I don’t deny it, we missed big time last night with the Over on Clemson and Wake Forest. Hey, it wasn’t close, but that’s not going to stop us from coming at it and nailing a winner tonight.

This time we’re switching gears and looking at some baseball action as we’re going with the Dodgers over the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLCS.

I gave out the Dodgers as my Top Play last night and lost thanks to Rafael Furcal. Tonight, things will be different. Tonight, Los Angeles will jump all over scheduled Phillies starter Brett Myers and chase him by the fourth inning.

While the Dodgers gave  up the game thanks to Rafael Furcal, things were looking good as they held a 2-0 lead through five innings. One mistake by Furcal and things unraveled.

Up to that point the Dodgers had been rolling, coming off a 3-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs.

In that sweep Los Angeles outscored the Cubs 20-6. Including that series against Chicago, and Game 1 against the Phillies, the Dodgers are now 22-9 overall their last 31 games and are 10-5 their last 15 games on the road.

Also consider that Myers has been getting racked lately. After winning four straight decisions Myers has been awful his last five outings. Myers is 2-3 his last five out, giving up 21 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he’s 1-2 with a 9.39 ERA, with the one win coming against the Brewers in the first round of the playoffs.

Myers will get racked and chased early and the Dodgers will tie up this series. Take Los Angeles in Game 2 today.

3♦ DODGERS

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DUNKEL

Boston at Tampa Bay
The Red Sox struggled at Tropicana Field (1-8) this season, but looked solid on the road against the Angels in the ALDS and will send Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-0, 2.56 away from home) to the mound in Game One.  Boston is the underdog pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored straight up by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100). 

Game 903-904: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 17.030; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.030
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Under

Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 17.160; Philadelphia (Myers) 15.842
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Under


NHL

NY Islanders at New Jersey
The Islanders were 6-1-1 against the Devils last season, 3-1-0 at New Jersey.  New York is the underdog pick (+190) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored straight up by 1/2 a goal.  Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+190).   

Game 51-52: NY Islanders at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.383; New Jersey 10.879
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-230); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+190); Under

Game 53-54: Florida at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.050; Carolina 12.255
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-170); Under

Game 55-56: Chicago at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.390; NY Rangers 12.498
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under

Game 57-58: Montreal at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.498; Buffalo 11.240
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+100); Under

Game 59-60: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.375; Atlanta 11.679
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Over

Game 61-62: Nashville at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.431; St. Louis 11.100
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+100); Under

Game 63-64: Columbus at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.321; Dallas 10.736
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-175); 5
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+155); Under


NCAAF

Game 107-108: Louisville at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 91.235; Memphis 80.995
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 10; 62
Vegas Line: Louisville by 6 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-6 1/2); Over

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Vegas Experts

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Just like Game One of the NLCS, we are looking for low scoring affair tonight in Tampa for Game One of the ALCS. James Shields has been incredible at home for the Rays this season, compiling a 15-3 team start record at Tropicana Field. However, Daisuke Matsuzaka has been just as great on the road, with a 9-0 personal mark and a 11-2 TSR overall. Shields ERA at home is 2.67, on the road, Matsuzaka's is 2.56. Tampa Bay went Under in its L3 games vs. Chicago.

Play on: Under

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LT Profits

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies Over 8.5

It may seem counterintuitive to look at the Over between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies today, given the pitching matchup and the easy Under in Game 1, but the talented starters today did not exactly close out the season strong.

Phillies starter Brett Myers was great vs. the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS, allowing two runs and just two hits in seven innings, but remember that he has always pitched well vs. the Brewers, so that effort actually could have been expected.

In reality, Myers has just two Quality Starts in his last five outings, and yes, they both came vs. Milwaukee. If we factor out those two appearances, Myers allowed an ugly 18 earned runs and 27 hits in just 17.2 innings over the other three starts!

Now Chad Billingsley has not been nearly that bad, but he does have an uncharacteristic 4.15 ERA with a poor 1.56 WHIP over his last three starts. He also hardly fooled the Philadelphia hitters the only time he faced them this season, allowing 12 baserunners in six innings of a 5-0 loss.

Add all of this up and we foresee a somewhat higher scoring game here than many others expect.

Pick: Dodgers, Phillies Over 8.5

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Tony Karpinski

Nashville Predators vs. St. Louis Blues
Play: Nashville Predators   

St. Louis finished last year by going 17-39 and they were 15-37 their last 52 conference games. Nashville has dominated the Blues going 21-5 the last 26 meetings. The Predators have won the last 5 meetings overall and I expect more of the same tonight.

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John Ryan

Game: Louisville at Memphis
Prediction: Memphis

Ai Simulator shows a 74% probability that Memphis will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and also has a 48% probability of winning the game. This 3* graded play also looks good on money line play as well. I suggest making a 3* amount with the points and no more than a 1.5 star amount on the money line. Reinforcing this graded play is a very strong winning system hitting 85% since 1992 for a 29-5 ATS mark. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent off a road win. Louisville is certainly in a rebuilding phase noting they have returned just 4 starters on offense and 5 on defense. Louisville is doing fine defending the ground game, but Memphis HC West has a strong tendency to offset that strength. Note that he is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards/game. Memphis is also off a nice road win at UAB while Louisville lost at home to UCONN and were installed as a 3.5 points favorites. Many times it is difficult for a college team, especially one with new nuclei on offense and defense to have the resiliency necessary to play at a top level after suffering a loss to a team they knew they should have defeated. Conversely, Memphis started off miserably losing their first three games and are now on a 3 game winning streak. Simplistically, you have a road team that is lacking in confidence while the home dog is feeling quite good about themselves. That general recipe can easily spell upset. Louisville is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival since 1992. Take Memphis.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Today it's back to baseball with the Dodgers in Game Two of the NLCS in Philadelphia.

A couple of mistakes last night, that’s all it took for Philly to take Game One.

Los Angeles had that game, and if it weren’t for the throwing error by Furcal and the sinker that Lowe left up and over the plate, the Dodgers would be up 1-0 in the series.

I like them to bounce back this afternoon behind Chad Billingsley.The right-hander has been great for the Dodgers down the stretch, going 5-0 with a 2.72 ERA in his last seven starts, and L.A. is 6-1 during that span.

The Dodgers have the lineup to match the output of the Phillies, and with Billingsley they have someone who can shut Philly down.

2* Dodgers

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