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Northcoast

Big 12 GOW

Baylor

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Dave Cokin

GOM Texas Tech

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IndianCowboy

Ball State Cardinals @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Pick: 3 units Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +15.5 (POD)

Western Michigan Broncos @ Buffalo Bulls
Pick: 3 units Western Michigan Broncos +1.5

Boise State Broncos @ So Mississippi
Pick: 3 units So Mississippi +11

Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs
Pick: 3 units Tennessee Volunteers +12

Temple Owls @ Central Michigan Chippewas
Pick: 3 units Temple Owls +7.5

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Nathan Armstrong

3* Purdue
3* Texas
3* Michigan State
3* Stanford
3* Kansas State

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Brandon Lang

30 Dime Oklahoma

5 Dime Army

5 Dime Notre Dame

FREE - Missouri

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Kelso Sturgeon

200 Unit College Football Game of the Year

Air Force -10½ over SAN DIEGO STATE
Prediction: Air Force by 35

Weather in San Diego: Clear with game-time temperature of 60 degrees, relative humidity of 54% and wind out of the west at 15 PMPH.

Comments: First of all, when I find a game that can be released at the 200-unit level, the team I am using must have the ability to absolutely dominate the other team on both sides of the ball. Air Force (3-2) is in that position against a poorly coached San Diego State (1-4) team that has been decimated by injuries, losing 15 players for the entire season, seven of them starters. Things went from bad to worst this week when it was announced San Diego State’s starting quarterback Ryan Lindley had not recovered from a shoulder injury incurred at TCU last week and would miss this game.His replacement is adequate but adequate does not get it done against Air Force,

The team I am using also has to be so dominating that it can play its worse game of the season and still win and cover. Air Force fills that bill too.

These two things are just the beginning of the process, which has 47 different points of analysis. A team must grade out on top in at least 40 of those categories to even be considered. This is no shot in the dark.

As I have pointed previously I completed a five-year study in February that really opened my eyes to why college and National Football League teams win or lose. There was a silver bullet that came out of the NFL study (passing and pass defense) but the college game came out of the process in a bit more complicated fashion.

Results of the college study said that version of the game rested on one thing—talent and lots of it—and that the talent factor could be revealed with the combined facts contained in five different elements--quarterback vs. quarterback, running game vs. running game, did a team have a game-breaker, the experience of the offensive line and the quality of each team’s defense.

In addition to this it has not been lost on me San Diego State has beaten only Idaho, a 1-5 team that is simply non-competitive and which gives up 47.3 points and 502.8 yards per game The Aztecs even lost to I-AA Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo, 29-27.

It also is comforting to know Air Force always comes to play and brings the heat from the get-go. It also is a major plus Air Force, which opened the season 3-0, comes into this off back-to-back losses—to unbeaten Utah, 30-23, and to Navy last week, 33-27.

This game has blow-out written all over it and I do look for at least a 35-point win.


Kelso Club Picks

Chairman
10 units Mich -16.5
10 units ECU -6.5
5 units Parlay above

Best Bets
5 units Illinois -12.5
4 units Iowa State +5
3 units UTEP -4

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

EARLY RELEASE
TEXAS TECH -20.5

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Scott Spreitzer

Underdog GOM Miss St

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Al DeMarco

15 Dime - Oklahoma

If you've seen me on TV or heard me on radio, you know I usually say marquee games are the hardest to win because the lines are the sharpest. But this is one game where the price is right, shall we say, because although the touchdown number is stimulated to generate betting interest on both sides of the ledger, it doesn't reflect the fact that Oklahoma is clearly the superior team.

The word "team" is the key word in this analysis. Are both teams fast and athletic? Absolutely. Are both teams strong defensively? Yes again, although I believe the Sooners have the edge especially in the secondary and when it comes to rushing the passer. But on the other side of the line of scrimmage, I feel Oklahoma is the more versatile "team" because the Texas offense is too reliant on quarterback Colt McCoy, who is the Longhorns top rusher and only dependable running threat.

Texas has covered the last three in the series, but the Oklahoma team it faces today is better than those three previous editions that took the field. Quarterback Sam Bradford comes in completing 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions, similar numbers as McCoy (16 TDs, 3 INTs), but again the Texas signal-caller doesn't have much support in his backfield.

Much criticism has been leveled in Bob Stoops' direction in recent years for his inability to deliver in big games, but the Sooners already got over one hurdle with a 35-10 pasting of an excellent TCU club in Norman. And I was equally impressed they didn't get caught looking ahead to this showdown - as they did last year when they got upset at Colorado - when they took care of business at Baylor last Saturday, jumping out to a 28-0 first-quarter lead en route to a 49-17 victory.

Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 outings in Big 12 revenge when laying less than 10 points and Stoops is 3-0 SU and ATS versus Mack Brown when these two squads meet when undefeated.

Will this be a blowout? No, Texas is a good team. But, this will be a solid Oklahoma victory by 10 to 13 points and a cover is all we care about.

Taking a look at the line.... As I post this play on Friday afternoon, I see Oklahoma at -7 almost everywhere in Vegas and offshore - as it has been practically all week long. If by chance your book has 7 1/2, you should buy down the 1/2 point back to -7 to insure you at least push should Oklahoma win by just a field goal.

Now, do you buy down the 1/2 point from 7 to 6 1/2 to insure Oklahoma wins you money if it wins by only a touchdown on the field? Well, we're always trying to push the odds a little more in our favor. Thus buying the 1/2 point down to 6 1/2 is the wise investment move as well.

With that being said, don't for a minute think that I don't realize that I'm asking you to spend additional funds - over and above the purchase of this selection - to essentially buy insurance on this pick. Myself, to be honest, I feel that the breaks always even out over the course of the year and in such situations it's a 50-50 proposition. Obviously there are no guarantees in gambling, but again, when you have the chance to hedge the odds in your favor for a small cost, it's worth the investment when the number is sitting on or around 7.

One more thing.... Don't ever discount the importance of price shopping by having numerous accounts and sources to play through. The same goes in Vegas where you're within walking distance or a short cab ride to from a 20+ sportsbooks waiting to take your action.

Fact of life is that some books always are priced higher for favorites. A pain when you're betting chalks, but great news if you're betting the dogs, right? Knowing where to play and when is often the difference between winning and losing. Obviously when you're betting a public team that's a favorite in a big game - such as Oklahoma - the line is more likely to increase as kickoff approaches. Thus, my rule of thumb in my 25 years in this business is to play favorites early and wait till later - as kickoff approaches - to play dogs, hoping to catch that extra 1/2 to 1 point for free. I'd say that strategy has worked about 85% of the time over the years, but as with anything in gambling, there are no guarantees.

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Ethan Law

4% -- Western Kentucky +16.5
4% -- Ketucky +3
2% -- Georgia -13
2% -- AF -11
2% -- Idaho +34.5
2% -- Army -1
2% -- ARKANSAS/AUBURN OVER 41
2% -- Rutgers +7.5
2% -- NM State +20


New Mexico State Aggies at Nevada Wolf Pack

Ah yes..this is just the type of "on paper" ugly match-up that peeks my interest, yet it will surly not be on anybodies radar this weekend, which give us an excellent opportunity to sneak in a nice win to line our pockets. Indeed, aside from a few of the other more obscure contests on the board, this is also one of the least bet games this week as the public and my fellow competitors will surely shy away from a spread that appears to be right where it should be. However, when we dig deeper we can find that New Mexico State can and will be a very dangerous underdog in this spot. I guess this is where I should a caveat: I do NOT think New Mexico State will win this game outright. I know that because Nevada has a better record against New Mexico State than any other Western Athletic Conference school. Indeed, the Wolf Pack are 10-1 all-time against the Aggies and have not lost to NMSU since the Aggies joined the WAC in 2005. Based upon that we can conclude that any money line play is simply out of the question. Nevertheless, an entirely different conversation takes place when we are spotted a whopping 20 points. Normally, the typical favorite (i.e. public) bettor believes that the "less than 3 touchdown" spread would be a bargain, especially considering New Mexico State lost by 31 to Nebraska and by 11 to a mediocre New Mexico team at home a few weeks back, while their only impressive win, came last week when they faced a 1-5 Division I-AA Alcorn State team who they demolished 45-10. In the loss to New Mexico NMSU showed all the symptom logy of a bad team allowing New Mexico three unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns. In contrast, Nevada is off two extremely impressive wins over UNLV 49-27 and lowly Idaho 49-14. However, they lost to pass happy powerhouses Missouri 69-17 and Texas Tech 35-19. Now Nevada returns home for the first time in 35 days. The general betting public will also be quick to point out that Nevada's quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been firing on all cylinders as he has put up 716 yards and eight touchdowns over the past two games. In last weeks win over Idaho the Wolf pack amassed and incredible 507 yards of total offense.

Now that the "perception" of this game is out of the way lets get down to the reality. We are getting 20 points and our underdog is playing is first conference game of the season. Remember when I told you about Nevada's two losses this season? Those were against Missouri and Texas Tech two teams that have high octane passing attacks ranked #1 and #3 in the country respectively. Now granted, I'm not insane enough to make the assertion that NMSU is on par with either of those teams, but they do possess a fundamental unit-on-unit match-up advantage when they are on offense. Indeed, New Mexico State comes into this contest with the #8 ranked passing attack in the country and they get to feast on a defense that is allowing a whopping 332 yards per game (8.6 yards per play) in the air good for 119th national ranking. Now to be fair, the Nevada strength is running the football where they average 308 yards rushing and they will certainly get their points against a New Mexico State team that ranks 114th at stopping the run (allowing 223 rushing yards per game). Although to be fair, Nevada?s rushing yield is a bit overrated due to a 426 rushing performance against the hapless Grambling State and a 440+ yards rushing performance against UNLV. For seven years I have won betting on football and the reason for the success is quit simple. Knowing that your 20 point underdog has any fundamental match-up advantage over the other team would you bet against them? Not me. So we have a fundamental draw, a situational advantage (playing their first conference game) and we also have an emotion advantage as this game

As an added bonus we get the revenge factor as NMSU is eager to erase last seasons heartbreaking 40-38 loss against Nevada last season. If you recall that game was played on a Friday night in November when the NMSU defense was worn down and Nevada's star running back Luke Lippincott helped keep their defense on the field with 30 carries for 143 yards. New Mexico State was also without the services of two key players as both their leading wide receiver Chris Williams, (out for the season) and tailback Tony Glynn broke his ankle just before halftime. Despite all of this they still were leading that game going into the final minutes. Meanwhile, this time around NMSU will not have to contend with Lippincott who is out for the season and they got back a healthy Chris Williams (who remarkably) isn't even the leading receiver this season. This all spells bad news for Nevada as the revenge minded NMSU should play with some fire. The Wolfpack secondary is young and will give up its fair share of yards and points against Chase Holbrook & Company. Look for a Nevada win but a New Mexico State cover. Take those points guys, but you will not need all of them.

Verdict: New Mexico State 28, Nevada 34

PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON NEW MEXICO +20

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Erin Rynning

20* Georgia (SEC GOY)

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Brian Hansen

BLOWOUT GOY

Florida

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Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections

4* Nebraska at Texas Tech:

Nebraska still has a work in progress defense, but this offense is very strong. And as good as Texas Tech is, they're not 20 points better than the Huskers. Nebraska has a strong offense with mobile senior QB Joe Ganz (9 TDs, 5 picks) and RB Marlon Lucky, averaging 33.4 points. Nebraska ranks No. 20 nationally in passing offense (270.4 yards per game) and No. 30 in scoring offense (33.4 points per game). Nebraska put up 333 total yards and 30 points in a 35-30 loss to Virginia Tech....and that was a season low in yards. QB Ganz said the Huskers need to be able to put up yards and points through the air. "I think we do need to run the ball, but we're capable of putting up big yards in the passing game," Ganz said. "We should be able to put up big numbers and kind of use the short passing game as the controlled running game. I know we need to be able to run the ball and I want to run the ball, but if we can't the passing game needs to pick it up." This game is even on too many levels and this line is out of whack. I'm looking at a game decided by single digits either way. Play Nebraska!


5* Texas/Oklahoma

Texas has new skill position players around QB Colt McCoy this season, and they also haven't been tested. In last year's meeting, Oklahoma rolled up 411 yards, and had the edge in rushing yards 170-61. McCoy has been turnover prone in his career and with a better offense coughed it up twice in last year's meeting, while Oklahoma had no TOs. Even in last week's rout of Colorado, McCoy threw 2 picks. This Oklahoma offense is even better than a year ago, with sophomore QB Sam Bradford (18 TDs, 3 picks), one that averages 50 points, 180 yards rushing and 320 passing. The ground game is loaded with sophomore RB DeMarco Murray and junior RB Chris Brown. The Sooners are also healthy, getting back injured defensive linemen Demarcus Granger and Frank Alexander back for this game. Oklahoma is 25-4 SU, 18-10-1 its last 29 as chalk. For the Red River Shootout, the Sooners have won the last three games when both teams were ranked in the top 5, most recently a 12-0 victory in 2004. They will win by double digits here. Play Oklahoma.

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King Creole

Triple-Dime Bet

Georgia -12.5 vs Tennessee

This game has EVERYTHING that we look for in a 4* or 5* Best Bet. We have an ANGRY yet focused home team... playing with REST... in a DOUBLE-Revenge situation... that looks to get back into the TOP 5 in the Country. Two weeks ago, Georgia's hopes for an unbeaten National Championship went up in smoke as they lost OUTRIGHT at home to Alabama (41-30) as favorite of -6.5 points. That was after starting off the season by reeling off 4 straight wins. They need a whipping boy on Saturday, and there's a tailor-made one in Tennessee... who's on a down year thus far. With the added incentive of double REVENGE, we have no problems laying the double-digit points on Saturday.

In the last 2 years, ALL Conference home favorites that are playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT loss as a fav of -6 > points are a PERFECT 6-0 ATS (GEORGIA). Larger favs of -7 or more are 14-3 ATS in the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS when playing with rest.

Now let's look at teams that just lost their first game of the year after reeling off multiple wins in a row.
11-0 ATS in the last 20 years: ALL Conference favs of -3 > points in Game Six or greater off their FIRST loss of the year... if that loss was by 10 or more points at HOME (GEORGIA).... and they are taking on an opponent off a SU win (like Tennessee).

The Volunteers BARELY escaped with a win last week in which they should have DESTROYED Northern Illinois (won 13-9 as home favs of -16.5 points).In the last 10 years, ALL conference road underdogs of < 14 points are a PERFECT 0-5 ATS off a SU non-conference home win of 4 < points in which they were a B-I-G fav of -14 or more points (Tennessee).

Tennessee's offense is definitely in the doldrums lately. Untested sophomore QB Jonathan Crompton has been stinking up the joint with a TD/INT ratio of only 2-4 on the year. He had only 1 TD last week against the Huskies... and was backed up by ONLY 69 rushing yards by his offense. The Volunteers come in with three straight games in which they have scored only 13 or less points.SEC road dogs of +28 or less points are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS after scoring 13 or less points in EACH of their last 3 games (Tennessee).

An angry BUT focused home favorite playing with rest AND revenge is always a great 'play ON' situation.
6-1 ATS in the last 3 years for all Conference home favs of greater than 3 points playing with REST and REVENGE.9-2 ATS since 2004 for ALL Conference home favs of -12 > points playing with REST off a SU loss in Game Six or greater, Bring in an opponent off a SU win (like Tennessee), and the numbers improve to a PERFECT 4-0 ATS

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Stephen Nover

Double-Dime Bet

Miami -17 vs UCF

Analysis: Miami is very young, but there is a class difference here. The Hurricanes are going to have motivation here after losing close ACC games to North Carolina and Florida State in their last two games.

The Hurricanes want to bury their in-state rival. They don't want Central Florida to cut into their fertile recruiting base.

Miami has the athletes to bury Central Florida, which is seriously deficient at the skill positions. The Knights have only scored three touchdowns in three road games.

The Knights also have morale issues.


Iowa -5.5 vs Indiana

Double-Dime Bet

The Hawkeyes are superior in the trenches. I expect them to control both lines of scrimmage and get a spread cover.

Iowa has lost three straight games, falling to Pittsburgh, Northwestern and Michigan State by a combined nine points. The Hawkeyes out-gained each of those three teams, while averaging four more first downs than each foe.

Bad luck and turnovers have dogged the Hawkeyes. Iowa's defense can handle Indiana's spread offense. The Hawkeyes are giving up just 13 points per game.

The Hawkeyes will pound away with good-looking running back Shonn Greene, who is averaging 158 yards rushing in his last two games.

The Hoosiers are 11-23-1 against the spread the past 35 times they've been an underdog.

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Teddy Covers

20* Arkansas

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Tim Trushel

20* Buffalo

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PPP

4% Army
4% No. Illinois
4% Illinois
4% Fl Int/Mid Tenn Under
3% Nevada/New Mex St Over

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ATS Lock Club

Underdog Lock Of The Year

20 units Stanford +7

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PSYCHIC

2 units Illinois -12
2 units Rutgers +7.5
2 units Temple +7.5
3 units Arizona -7
3 units Oklahoma State +14.5


DA STICK

5 units Mississippi State +3
5 units Florida International -2
10 units Oklahoma -6.5
10 units underdog game of the week Notre Dame +8.5
15 units Penn State -6
15 units Northwestern +1.5
20 units Game of the Year Florida -6

10 units teaser of the week Texas Tech -11, USC -18, Florida +4

MLB

10 units Philadelphia Phillies +141

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