Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

Re: Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

Today's Dogs:

Nets +8 -115
           
Nuggets +110
           
Raptors +6 -115



Overall: 35-20-1 (64%)

Samson Prime
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Re: Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

Yesterday's results = 0-3

Overall System Now 35-23-1

Back later with today's dogs.

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Re: Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

Today's dogs:

New York +5

Orlando +2

Charlotte +7

Sactown +1

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Re: Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

Yesterday's Results:  3-1

Overall System:  38-24-1


Not too shabby!

More dogs later....


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Re: Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

I gotta be honest, I can't believe how good this is doing for you. Nice work, you made a believer out of me

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Re: Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

Thanks Cash!  Here are today's dogs:

Cavaliers +4 -115
           
Knicks +2 -115
           
Grizzlies +4½ -115
           
Pacers +8 -115
           
Bulls +6 -115
           
Nuggets +4 -115
           
Bobcats +7½ -115
           
Suns +2 -115

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Today's Results:  6-2!


This moves the system to a strong 44-26-1 (62%)

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Today's Dawgs:

Grizzlies +8 -115
           
76ers +2 -115
           
Cavaliers +6½ -115
           
Bulls +4 -115
           
Wizards +8 -115
           
Clippers +4 -115

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Yesterday's Results: 3-3

Overall System Results: 47-29-1 (62%)

List:

Samson Prime
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Wow, the first losing day recorded using this system as I posted a dreadful 2-6 day following a mediocre 3-3 yesterday.

That brings the overall system to: 49-35-1 (58%)

We will see what happens tomorrow.  It could be that teams are actually playing hard right now because the regular season is upon us.  I did notice that in the Phoenix game both Shaq and Nash played until the very last minute helping the Suns win by 9, covering the 8 point spread.  It may not be safe to take the dogs this last week of NBA preseason. I also noticed a rise in the spread for some of these dogs including OKC +8, Bobcats +7, and Pacers +7.  Until the last few days, the spread for these games have been no more than 6 and at max 7.  Could it be we are now seeing this reverse trend?


In the NFL week 4 is the shit game, so nobody plays and you can take the dogs full circle.  But, with NBA, it could be the opposite.  The final week could be the most important for teams, hence the higher spread for dogs we are seeing.  I will continue to test this week as I am still WAY AHEAD using this system and do not mind sacrificing if it means finding some answers to work with next year. 

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Re: Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

Tonight's Dawgs:

Wiz +5
Nets +5
Bucks +6
Heat +7
Clips +4
OKC +8

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Re: Anyone bet NBA Preseason?

OK, here it is.  Yesterday's results were as expected.  2-4 on the day with the favorites ruling.  Now, over the last 3 days we have seen a trend in more covers from the favorite.  This is highly attributed to the coaching decisions made in the few games following right up until the regular season.  They play more of the starters throughout the entire game.  Only the major superstars rested this past few games including Kobe Bryant, Arenas, and Amari Stoudemire.  This is allowing other players on the team to step up at the right time as the Lakers have covered 2 games this past week without Kobe.  They want the PT and they step it up so they get in the rotation at the start of season.  Note that 90% of the favorites were home favorites and the road dogs did terrible during this 3 day stretch. 

Therefore, in this final stretch of games, notably their last 2 games of preseason, we must note the pattern of more favorites covering, this is not a fluke, it makes sense.  We will count the previous 3 days toward the final week of preseason and note that favorites the last 3 days are whopping 13-7.  Again, this is attributed to the level of play exhibited by players in the week leading up to the regular season.

Since this is the end of NBA preseason, I will follow up with a summary in the next post. 

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NBA Preseason Betting Summary:

As noted previously, I took all dogs during the NBA preseason and was notably successful until the final 2 games of preseason.  This is due to the level of play being stepped up by the home teams in their final 2 preseason games.  So, with that said, here are the stats:

Betting all Underdogs - NBA Preseason (Until the Last 2 Team Games) = 44-26-1 (62%)


This tells us it's much safer to play the dogs throughout NBA preseason right up until the last 2 games.  The oddsmakers have no idea how the players are going to perform through most of the preseason and coaches are not exactly trying to win games.  They are testing rotations, trying new strategies, and getting new players into different sets. 

Betting all Favorites - Last 2 Team Games of NBA Preseason = 13-7 (65%)


When you get down to the team's last few games, this is where the system flips.  Coaches and players are playing at almost 100%.  Note that Steve Nash and Shaq both played their last 2 games right until the final whistle.  It's similar to week 3 of NFL preseason where the coaches play most of the starters and the home teams usually cover.  It's very important to have some momentum going into regular season, therefore it only makes sense for the teams to try and win their final 2 games.


Let me know if you have any questions, enjoy the regular season!

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