Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Double-Dime Bet

Fla. Atlantic / Troy Under 51.5

The last time these teams met it was December 1st of last year and the Owls knocked off the Trojans at Troy. That win stole the Sun Belt Title from Troy and that occurred in the Trojans last home game of the season. Needless to say both teams remember that game and the intensity will certainly be up for both teams. The Trojans have revenge on their minds and the Owls are looking to come up with a strong performance at home with the ESPN2 cameras rolling. As a direct result of the intensity being up for this game we should see some solid defense here. Note that Florida Atlantic returned 18 starters for this season and eight of those were on defense. As for Troy, they returned 14 starters this season and seven of those were on defense. Don't be fooled by some of the big points these teams have given up this season as they've faced some very tough competition in games where they were overmatched. Florida Atlantic faced Minnesota and Michigan State from the Big Ten plus Texas from the Big Twelve. They did hold Michigan State to just 17 points. Also, they defeated UAB by 15 in their game against the Blazers and they held Middle Tennessee State to just 14 points. That game was last Tuesday and the Owls were actually up 13-7 when the Blue Raiders scored a TD on the final play of the game. As you would imagine, the Florida Atlantic defense is fired up after seeing last week's game slip away in the final seconds! Troy allowed 55 points to Oklahoma State in their most recent game but they of course are not in the same class as the Cowboys! Prior to that loss the Trojans allowed an average of just 15 points per game in their first three games of the season even though one of those games came at Ohio State. Give the Trojan defense some respect and note that they will be fired up after having the Sunbelt title taken away from them in last season's season finale loss to the Owls. Last season's game between these teams totaled 70 points and that is giving us some line value with the under tonight. Note that the Owls and Trojans met each of the three seasons prior to last season. Those three games averaged a total of just 38 points per game. That's what you would expect from this SBC rivalry and it looks like another under tonight in Boca Raton, Florida. UNDER!

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jeff Bonds

Double-Dime Bet

Troy -3.5 vs Fla. Atlantic

Talk about a HUGE REVENGE spot that the Troy State Trojans have been waiting for since the Owls dropped them and ended their chances to repeat as Sun Belt Conference champions. That was the first time FAU has beaten Troy State and that winning streak certainly ends tonight.

Troy State is already 1-0 in conference play after handing MTSU a 31-17 loss and FAU will find it hard to match the Trojans intensity after a deflating 14-13 loss on a hail mary last week.

The Trojans strength is running the football, as they've produced a 4-0 ATS record the last two years in conference play when outrushing conference opponents on the road.

Florida Atlantic has scored just two touchdowns in its last 12 quarters and will find it tough against a Troy team that's focused on one single thing - winning the conference title: The number one goal is to win our conference period. It's got nothing to do with anything else. Win our conference, and whatever falls under that umbrella, that's our number one goal, win the league.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

SPORTS ADVISORS

Troy (2-2, 2-1 ATS) at Florida Atlantic (1-4, 3-2 ATS)

Florida Atlantic will try to bounce back from last week’s crushing last-second loss to Middle Tennessee State when it returns home for another Sun Belt Conference showdown, this one against Troy.

After settling for a 25-yard field goal with 1:15 to play to take a 13-7 lead at Middle Tennessee a week ago tonight, the Owls let the Blue Raiders march down the field and complete a 32-yard touchdown pass as time expired to tie the game, with the ensuing extra-point sending Florida Atlantic to a 14-13 loss. The Owls finished with a 363-323 edge in total offense, including 153-55 on the ground, but it wasn’t enough for Howard Schnellenberger’s squad to avoid its third straight defeat.

Florida Atlantic did get the cash as 2½-poit road underdog last week, improving to 6-2 ATS in its last eight games (3-1 ATS in the last four).

Troy is coming off consecutive blowout road losses to BCS schools Ohio State (28-10) and Oklahoma State (55-24). The Trojans got the cash as a 21-point underdog at Ohio State and even outgained the Buckeyes (315-309), but they failed to cover as a 17½-point pup against Oklahoma State, which had a whopping 612-416 yard edge in total offense, including 358-144 on the ground.

Troy won the first three meetings of this rivalry from 2002-06, going 3-0 ATS in lined contests. However, with the Sun Belt championship on the line in the regular-season finale for both teams last year, Florida Atlantic turned the tables on the Trojans, prevailing 38-32 as a 16-point road underdog. The teams combined for 878 yards of total offense, including 446 for the Trojans.

In addition to their current 6-2 ATS run, Florida Atlantic is on pointspread streaks of 5-2 at home, 8-2 in Sun Belt action, 7-2 after a SU loss and 5-1 in October. Meanwhile, Troy sports a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 13-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2 in conference play, 7-1 against losing teams and 4-0 after a non-cover. In fact, the Trojans haven’t had consecutive ATS setbacks since October 2006, a span of 22 contests.

All three lined meetings between these schools have gone over the total. Also, the over is 5-0 in FAU’s last five at home and 5-1 in its last six Sun Belt games. However, the over is on runs of 4-1 for the Owls overall, 7-3 for the Trojans overall, 6-1 for the Trojans in conference and 4-0 for the Trojans in October.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Scott Delaney

On the heels of last night's 3-0 sweep with premium plays and the comp winner on the Red Sox, your comp play to take a look at the next few nights (since there is no action tomorrow, and this series starts Thursday) is the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series against Philadelphia.

You should be getting a decent price of anywhere between +105 and +115 right now, and as long as the Dodgers continue to swing the sticks they way they did against Chicago's rotation, there's no reason to believe they can't steal a win on the road, and head home to take control of the best-of-7 set.

Let's start with the pitching, as I like our chances with how Los Angeles has its rotation set up, and honestly see the Dodgers' starters being able to keep the aggressive Phillies off-balance. The Phils' .469 slugging percentage in the postseason tells us they don't mess around at the plate, but the Dodgers swept the Cubbies thanks to a combiend ERA of 2.00 after NL-leading Chicago managed to score just six runs in the NLDS.

Other intangibles include the fact the Dodgers have Manny Ramirez and Joe Torre, a pair of legendary postseason performers. They've also won 22 of their last 31 games and they're most certainly playing their best baseball right now.

I know the Phils have won 16 of their last 20 games, and are arguably playing their best baseball right now; but Los Angeles seems invincible thanks to Ramirez, who is batting .500 (5-for-10) in the postseason with five runs, two homers and three RBI.

There's no doubt the Phils have weapons of their own, but it almost seems surreal for Los Angeles to make it two straight NL West teams to oust the Phils from the NLCS. Think about it, the tow most glamorous teams in baseball - the Red Sox and Yankees - get rid of their two most dedicated faces  - Ramirez and Torre, respectively - and both end up in the same uniform, with a chance to play in the World Series.

It's meant to be for Los Angeles, and realistically, this is a value price. Take the men in blue for this series.

DODGERS IN THE NLCS

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Tony Weston

Troy St. / Fla Atlantic
Play: Over

Tonight’s total is set at about 51 1/2 points and these two will blow right past that.

Consider that the Over is on a 5-0 run for FAU in its last five home games, including its lone home game so far this season where the Owls and Alabama-Birmingham combined for 83 points in their week 2 game where the total was set at 56 1/2 points.

For Troy, the Over is 5-4 in its last nine road games and came in for the Trojans in its last game against Oklahoma State when the teams combined for 79 points with the total set at 61.

Most importantly consider that the Over is on a 3-0 run in this Troy-Florida Atlantic series over the last three seasons, including last year when the teams combined for 70 points with the total set at 63 1/2.

The teams will run up the score again and breeze past that total set. Take the Over easy tonight.

3♦ TROY-FAU OVER

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

DUNKEL INDEX

Troy at Florida Atlantic
The 1-4 Owls face a Troy team that has won four of its last five ATS as a road favorite.  The Trojans are the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Troy favored by 9.  Dunkel Pick: Troy (-3 1/2).

Game 101-102: Troy at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 84.477; Florida Atlantic 75.721
Dunkel Line: Troy by 9; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Troy by 3 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-3 1/2); Under

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

MASTERBETS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL HIGH ROLLER PICK!

Pick: Bet on TROY to cover the spread

This is a soft line for the men from Troy. They're favored by 3.5 points but our data suggests that the line should be at least a TD. That creates huge value for the road team tonight. Troy play with revenge. Florida Atlantic beat them at home last season and they will suit up looking to return the favor.

Troy is also the far superior team this season. Their 2-2 record is better than it looks. They put up a lot of offense against OK State and were very competitive against Ohio State until the 4th quarter. They also beat Middle Tennessess State, a team that beat Florida Atlantic last time out.

Look for the revenge victory at the expense of the 1-4 Florida Atlantic Owls, so lay the small number with TROY.


COMP

Troy St. / Fla Atlantic
Play: Over

The current line for the game between Troy and Florida Atlantic is a mere 51 points. That seems too low based on our data set for the game.

Last season when these two teams met they combined for 70 points. This year in Florida Atlantic's only home game to date the combined total was 83 points (against UAB)!

Troy have the ability to move the ball and score easily - they showed that against better opposition than these Owls when they came up against Oklahoma State.

Look for a high scoring game here and place a bet on the OVER.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Nite Owl Sports

Game: Troy Trojans @ Florida Atlantic Owls
Pick: 3 units Florida Atlantic Owls +4

When I saw the match-up of these two teams, my “knee jerk reaction” was to go with FAU Owls over the Troy Trojans. But was it because I really thought FAU has a good shot to win this game SU, and even more of one to cover the generous 4 point cushion they have been given by the linemaker, or was it because being Nite Owl Sports, it’s only natural for me to back teams nicknamed the Owls, and/or that as a Stanford graduate it’s only natural for me to root against (if not bet against) a team nicknamed the Trojans (or a combination of both of those team nickname “handicapping tools”). But in looking over the list of my CFB picks TY, I see that I have made a pick on just one of the USC Trojans games (and that pick was  actually with USC, against Ohio State), and that I have made two picks against the FAU Owls, one of them being my CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year, on Minny in their 37-3 romp over these Owls, in which we won a whopping 12 units (5 units ATS on Minny, 5 units on FAU under 28.5, and two units on Minny over 35). But we’ve also backed Owl teams TY, such as in our early season ATS win on the Temple Owls as 6 point home dogs in their heart-breaking 3 point OT loss (but ATS win for us) to UConn, and of course in last Tuesday night’s ESPN game, backing the FAU Owls in another heart-breaking last second loss but ATS cover (as 3 point dogs), in a game where they never trailed until giving up a game losing TD on a “hail Mary” pass on the game’s final play. But those Owls came through for us and our subscribers ATS at the “pay window,” victorious our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. So now that we’ve cleared up all of our “Owl and Trojan issues,” we’re now ready to move on with the rest of our pick write up.

In write-up of our victorious pick on FAU in last week’s game against Middle Tenn State, we described the scenario as one involving a B-/C+ team (FAU) stepping way down in class to start conference play in the Sun Belt Conf against a team (Middle Tenn State) not as good as FAU, and with Owls in an undeserving underdog role for their first conference game, due to public (mis)perception of them as a bad team as a result of the 3 road beatings they had already absorbed TY against good teams (Minny, Texas and Mich State). This week, although Troy State is certainly better than Middle Tenn State, who they beat 31-17 in their road opener in early Sept., we believe FAU has again been “dogged” incorrectly, given that this game is being played in the “Owl’s’ nest” in SE Florida, where they tend to play much better than out on the road. And the FAU players all know that despite the 3 road beatings they have absorbed TY against Minny, Texas and Mich State, plus that frustrating last second loss at Middle Tenn State, they still have a decent chance to repeat as Sun Belt Champs and go to a bowl, just like they did LY, but only if they “drop Troy” in this huge game, as Troy is now the favorite to win the Sun Belt, and the only conference team Owls have lost to is  Middle Tenn State, who already has a conference loss and (we are certain) is not going to win that conference. But it’s now or never for Owls, and their players, coaches and fans all know it.

Thus, it is no surprise to us that FAU "beat writers" report the team as having had good practices this past week and not showing any particular “hangover” effect from LW’s tough loss, and expecting a good showing from Owls tonite for both the “home folks” and the nat. tv audience on ESPN. These Owls actually beat Troy LY to “steal” the Sun Belt title from Trojans, beating them on the road as huge 15 point dogs, 38-32, in a game featuring all star performances by both QBs, with FAU’s Rusty Smith looking anything but “rusty” in completing 23 of 34 passes for a whopping 391 YP with two TDPs and no INTs, while Troy’s Omar Haegabook (how’s that for a “household name”?) not doing so badly himself, hitting on 35 of 47, also with two TDPs and no INTs, but with “only” 265 YP. But the most significant thing is that while Smith is back for his senior year, Haegabook is long gone (having either graduated or used up his college eligibility), with his replacement Jaime Hampton, who did not take a single snap in LY’s classic 38-32 barnburner, having decent but not great numbers TY. But back to FAU QB Rusty Smith, his HC Howie Schnellenberger says that Smith "has a very strong arm and can make all of the throws," and predicts that his QB will be a high NFL draft pick. And while his best years may now be behind him (as indicated by his “deer in the headlights look” on numerous “sideline shots” of him in final minute of that “come from ahead” last second loss LW at Middle Tenn State), Howie still knows talent when he sees it, having recruited a virtual "stud farm" to Univ of Miami in the early 1980s when he was Canes HC and won the NCAA title as 11 point dogs over a Nebraska team that was one of the best CFB teams in modern history. Forgive us for again (like we did in write up of LW’s victorious pick on FAU) digressing and getting "off track," but we can't resist mentioning that was one of our "sweetest" wins of all time, not only because we had Miami both ATS and on the money line (a betting strategy very similar to our 7 unit Super Bowl double victory LY on NY Giants over NE Pats), but also because we were going against SCORE's famed "Lock of the Year" on Nebraska, which cost Score clients $500 for that one pick (alot of money in 1981, and i guess now as well, with the way the US economy and stock market is going), and lost them many times that, while we collected big time at the "pay window."

But getting back to this game, against the BCS teams, FAU was forced to use their running backs for added pass protection, but with this more favorable matchup vs Troy, they will provide extra play action running and passing options in this game, which will open up the offense, much like it did in their season home opener (Owls’ only home game so far TY) against a crappy UAB team, won easily by FAU, in which the Owls looked very polished and formidable on offense.

Looking at how these two teams have performed recently in their respective modes for tonite's game (FAU as small home dogs of 1-6 points and Troy as small road faves in that same range), we see very few games L2Y, so we need to expand the ranges a bit, to FAU at home from +6 to -3, and Troy away in same range (as road faves up to -6 and road dogs up to +3), for L2Y. Using those expanded ranges, we find FAU at 3-1 SU and ATS L2Y, including their huge home upset win LY over Minny as similar (to this game) 4 point home dogs, but troy 2-0 SU and ATS in this same range. And while these records also include Troy’s 7 point covering win in 2006 as 4 point faves at FAU, Rusty Smith and most of FAU’s starters were just sophs or RS freshmen that year. And we believe it’s also relevant that FAU is now 7-1 ATS L2Y+ on conference road, as FAU's record in such competitively priced  games (i.e., where they are playing “in their element”) tells us is that when Howie's teams are not overmatched, he and his boys can get then job done, as we expect they will tonite in this nationally televised ESPN game.

Based on the above, we not only are very confident that FAU will cover the 4 points in this game, we also give Owls a decent shot at victorious outright. So take Owls with the 4 point cushion NOW if you still can get it

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

SCOTT SPREITZER

25* SUN BELT "TOTAL" BLOWOUT

FAU / TROY OVER

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

NSA

20* Troy -3.5
10* UNDER 51.5

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

WUNDERDOG

Troy at Florida Atlantic
Pick: Florida Atlantic +4

Troy and Florida Atlantic hookup in Sun Belt action in a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two teams in the conference. Florida Atlantic saw that dream vanish on the last play of the game at MTSU. They outplayed MTSU all game but lost it on a hail mary as time expired. As a result, the Owls are definitely the team in need here. They finally broke through on Troy last year, and have most of those parts back from last year. Meanwhile, Troy has a new QB and they lost several key players. Most will gauge this Owl team on a mediocre performance at MTSU, and their poor showing to date. What most fail to realize is this will be only the Owl's second home game since November 10th of last year! The competition they have faced this year has been absolutely brutal (Texas, Michigan State, Minnesota). This is an experienced team, and coming home after four of five on the road. I expect the Owls to play well and likely win this one outright.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Paul Leiner

25* Troy/FAU Over 51.5

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Brandon Lang

10 Dime Florida Atlantic (Be sure to buy the 1/2-point and make sure to get the 3-1/2 on this game)

FREE - Troy/FAU Over

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Bob Balfe

FAU +3.5 over Troy

FAU has yet to get their offense going this season and are coming off a tough last second loss to MTSU last week. This is a must win for FAU, but if Troy is looking to knock them off. Last year FAU spoiled Troys bowl bid when the won at Troy. FAU won the Sun Belt and this season has 10 returning starters on offense and 8 of defense. FAU will be just fine on offense. This team had a tough non conference schedule and at home will start to click again. FAU will also get their center Nick Paris back tonight which will allow the rest of the line to return to their natural position. Troy lost their QB and their top 3 receivers from last year. On defense they lost Elbert Mack and the #11 pick in the NFL Draft Leodis Mckelvin. You know when a Troy player gets drafted that high he is a special player. They will miss him dearly this season. This Troy team is young and their offensive coordinator Neal Brown is only 27 years old. What a great accomplishment for such a young guy, but when we put it into perspective Troy should struggle tonight on the road against a FAU team hungry after a last second loss. Take Florida Atlantic

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Opposite Action Plays   

FAU / Troy UNDER 51.5 

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

The King Of Sports

Tonight we begin a new week and it starts with the Troy Trojans visiting the Florida Atlantic Owls. I Look for Troy to come out strong and cover this spread of 3.5 tonight vs the Owls, coming off 2 tough opponents in Ohio State and Oklahoma State, The Trojans have seen 2 different types of offenses and defenses which will lead to sucess tonight. The Free Play of the Night for Tuesday Is the Troy Trojans

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