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PRO INFO SPORTS

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Prediction:   OVER 46

Grade:TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

The Green Bay Packers head west to face the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon in Seattle . After meeting in the playoffs last season, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks were both expected to contend for division crowns again this season. However, with struggling defenses and banged-up quarterbacks, both teams are currently struggling to get to .500.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will miss some practice this week but is expected to start on Sunday in Seattle . Rodgers, who sprained his shoulder in Week 4's 30-21 loss at Tampa Bay , pleaded with Coach Mike McCarthy to let him play last Sunday against Atlanta . He got his wish and finished 25-for-37 for 313 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, although the effort came up short as the Packers lost 27-24.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay 's defense continues to be struggling after allowing 370 yards of total offense last week. The Packers, who were tied with Seattle for sixth in scoring defense last season (18.2 points per game), now rank 23rd in the league in that same category (25.6 points per game) and 26th in total defense (374.0 yards per game).

Seattle's defense has been even worse than Green Bay 's. The Seahawks returned all 11 defensive starters including four Pro Bowlers from last season's unit, but rank 29th in scoring (31.0 points per game) and 27th in total defense (382.3 yards per game).

They allowed the Giants to rush for 254 yards on 36 attempts, and may have trouble slowing down Green Bay's Ryan Grant, who rushed for a franchise playoff record 201 yards and three touchdowns in their January meeting.

Seattle Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck hyper-extended his right knee after being hit on the fourth play from scrimmage against the Giants last week. He limped to the sidelines and finished 11-of-21 for 105 yards and an interception before being relieved late in the third quarter with New York leading 37-6.

The three-time Pro Bowler should be ready to play this week, but wide receiver Deion Branch may miss his fourth game of the season after injuring his heel last Sunday.

We expect the Seattle offense to play much better at home against this Packers defense and we also expect the Packers to find the end zone frequently against this terrible Seahawks "D".

With Seattle 's ugly loss 44 to 6 last week to the New York Giants are allowing 31 points per game defensively and five of their last seven opponents have all topped the 30-point mark.

On the technical front we know that the Seahawks are 11-0 Over at home off a game in which they had <26 minutes TOP and <13 first downs since 1992. Seattle is 17-4 Over at home off a loss of 14 or more points, 13-2 Over at home off a loss of 21 or more points and 15-3 Over at home after trailing in their last game by 14 or more points at the half.

The Packers are 11-0 Over away after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games, 8-0 Over away when playing with 6 or less days rest, 17-5 Over their last 22 games overall, 7-0 Over away against conference opponents the last two seasons, 13-3 Over when playing with six or less days rest and 11-1 Over after three or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Our Defensive Efficiency Index shows the Packers ranked 19th in the league only forcing their opponents to average 14.19 yards per point. The Seahawks are ranked 28th in the league forcing their opponents to average 11.82 yards per point. This Index does a great job of showing which teams have trouble keeping teams out of the end-zone and both of these teams struggle with that no matter whom they play.

Our Offensive Efficiency Index shows the Packers ranked 5th in the league averaging 12.68 yards per point. The Seahawks are not really that far behind ranked 15th averaging 14.42 yards per point. This Index shows how teams perform overall including not only offensive numbers but special teams, turnover differential and red zone proficiency.

Data base research has uncovered strong technical support for our selection on the "Over" in today's contest. NFL Teams are 21-3-1 Over within 3 of pick versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 42-19-1 Over when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.

NFL Teams are 41-17-3 Over after playing as a 7 or more point underdog. NFL Teams are 20-5 Over as a favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. NFL Teams are 20-4 Over at home after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average on the road. NFL Teams are 23-8 Over within 3 of pick after a straight up loss as a dog. NFL Teams are 22-5 Over within 3 of pick after playing on the road as a dog.

The combination of technical, situational and fundamental factors all lead to an "Over" in today's contest between the Packers and Seahawks.

GRADED PREDICTION:   2* Green Bay / Seattle OVER 46

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ROCKBOXSPORTS.COM

2 STARS: PHILLY +140; UNDER 8
Everyone is chomping at the bit to go against Jamie Moyer, but we're saying…not so fast, my friends. Sure, Moyer is old as the hills, but if you read our NLCS preview (below) you will of course be aware that the Dodgers have a vulnerability to lefthanders. Kuroda has been pitching well as of late, but Moyer hasn't been shabby either. Check the numbers. Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park and we think the situation is primed for Moyer to throw a good game. Kuroda may do the same, hence the under pick, but the Phillies have more pop in their lineup and have the advantage of facing the righty Kuroda since their own weakness is against lefties as well. Phillies will be able to pitch around Manny without fearing consequences from the bats around him. Dodgers face a Philly lineup that is harder to navigate.


2 STARS: MINNESOTA -13

With Kitna questionable and unlikely to play, this week could mark the beginning of the Dan Orlovsky era in Detroit. That's wonderful news - for those of us who will be laying the 13 points. Orlovsky will be taking over an offense that is 31st in the NFL in rushing, going up against a Viking D ranked #3 against the rush. It seems inevitable that the Lions will become one dimensional rather quickly here, taking to the air in a desperate bid to move the ball at all. Problem is, Orlovsky is coming off an ankle injury himself and was not the most mobile guy to begin with. He will make a fine target for last year's sack leader Jared Allen who has a favorable matchup with Lion LT Jeff Backus. Defensively the Lions rank last in the NFL, and are equally inept at stopping run (30th in league) and pass (29th). Detroit has a horrible history playing in Minnesota, 1-13 since 1995 to be exact, with their last win coming in 1997. Last year the result was Vikings 42-10 and there is reason to expect Marinelli's bunch could be heading down the same road this week.

1 STAR: Baltimore +4; Denver -3.5; San Fran +4.5

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GINA

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Houston has won all three meetings against Miami, but the Dolphins have come alive, both on offense and defense and will give the Texans a tough day in Houston. Even so, the Texans will have starting quarterback Matt Schaub back, the Texans will stay winless.

Miami Dolphins +3


St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins

The Rams dreadful defense is allowing 245.8 passing yards a game and 166 yards rushing. Look for Washington’s quarterback Jason Campbell and running back Clinton Portis to tear them apart.  Ugly day for the winless Rams!

Washington Redskins -13½


Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Phillies have not been successful in Los Angeles, 0-5 in the last 5 meetings and southpaw Jamie Moyer is 1-3 with a 6.83 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Meanwhile, right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 home starts and pitched terrific in two starts versus Philadelphia in the regular season, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Go with the Dodgers at home!

Los Angeles Dodgers - 150

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Mr A

Philadelphia Phillies  at Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles' Hiroki Kuroda (10-10, 3.61) is 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 home starts this year and went 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA, in two starts against Phillies this season.The Dodgers are back in Los Angeles where they are 25-9 in their last 34 games and have won five straight against the Phillies at Chavez Ravine. Take the Dodgers in a vital game, down 2-0. The home team in this series has won the last 10 meetings.

Los Angeles Dodgers -150


Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints     

The Raiders are a mess, dropping seven of their last eight games and 18 of its last 21 on the road, a new coach won’t be an instant fix. Take the Saints at the Louisiana Superdome. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings versus Oakland.

New Orleans Saints - 7


Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers    

Philadelphia will have no troubles against the 49ers’ even without their key running back Brian Westbrook. Look for McNabb to easily score against San Francisco’s puny defense. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games versus San Francisco at Candlestick Park.

Philadelphia Eagles - 4½

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Johnny Guild

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

The mediocre Vikings should have no problems with the hopeless Lions in Minnesota. Detroit’s 30th-ranked rushing defense will have the misfortune playing against running back Adrian Peterson. Detroit is 0-4 both straight-up and against the spread thus far this season, outscored by 81 points and is 0-5-1 in their last six meetings versus Minnesota. Take the Vikings at home!

Minnesota Vikings -13


New Orleans Saints -7
Washington Redskins -13.5
Philadelphia Eagles - 4.5

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JB's COMPUTER PLAYS

Los Angeles Dodgers -150


Miami Dolphins +3
Baltimore Ravens +4½
Cincinnati Bengals +6
New Orleans Saints -7½
Chicago Bears -2½
Minnesota Vikings -13
Carolina Panthers +1½
Washington Redskins -13½ * * *
Denver Broncos -3½
Seattle Seahawks -2½
Dallas Cowboys -5½
Philadelphia Eagles -5
New England Patriots +6

BEST BET ***

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Chris Jordan

Philadelphia at L.A. DODGERS

Hiroki Kuroda looked good in his two outings against Philly this season, and with his teammates backed into a corner, I expect the men in blue to do some damage in this one today.

The Dodgers swept a four-game set from Philly back in August, and roll into this home set on winning runs of 22-10 overall, 25-9 at Chavez Ravine, 5-1 after taking a day off, 8-3 against southpaw starters and 8-2 after a loss.

And since Kuroda is 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 home starts this season - 10 of which Los Angeles was victorious - not to mention he went went 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in those two starts against Philly, I have no problem laying the run line in this one.

1&#9830; DODGERS RUN LINE


Jacksonville at DENVER

We’re going to a city I enjoyed last week, as I was in attendance for the Broncos-Buccaneers game at Invesco Field. And if there’s one thing I took from that game, it’s that there’s nothing wrong with Denver’s defense, it just took some time to get it going. And since the Broncos didn’t have to travel anywhere after last week’s 16-13 win over Tampa, I don’t see anything different, especially since they’re in revenge from last season.

This is a rematch of last season’s clash at Invesco Field, where the Jags beat the Broncos 23-14, easily trumping the oddsmakers who made Jacksonville an underdog. And those two teams just might have been a tad more offensive than these two this season. They only scored 37 points. Now they’re supposed to put up 48?

Jacksonville is a rugged, run the ball squad … that equates to a clock-draining game. Denver dominated the similarly defensive and physical Bucs last week, as quarterback Jay Cutler had an efficient game against that defense, completing 23-of-34 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown; more importantly, he didn’t throw one interception. Yet the Broncos scored only 16 points.

While a majority of the stats tell us the number is justifiably high with the trends pointing to the over, here’s a strange number for you – both teams tend to stay low in Week 6 of the season. Jacksonville is 9-3 the last 12 years in Week 6, while the Broncos are 5-2 the last seven seasons during this week. I know that might sound crazy, but I still like the under here.

1&#9830; UNDER

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Karl Garrett

Chicago -3 at ATLANTA 

Big win for the Falcons last week, as they recorded their first road win of the season under new coach Mike Smith. The G-Man likes what he sees from the Falcons under first-year coach Smith, but this is still a learning squad, and they are in a let down spot here at home on Sunday.

Atlanta has won, and covered both home dates this year, but they have also followed up each of their wins this year with losses both straight up, and against the spread.

The Bears are coming off a road blowout win over Detroit, and all of the sudden QB Kyle Orton has looked pretty decent, throwing for 5 touchdown passes in his last 2 games.

Chicago has played the tougher schedule thus far, and they are 2-0-1 against the spread on the road through 3 away games.

The Bears defense will be able to stop the Atlanta ground game, and force rookie Matt Ryan into making a few ill-advised throws that will result in a couple of costly turnovers.

That will be enough to make the difference in the football game, as Chicago comes up with the road win, and cover.

1&#9830; CHICAGO

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Drew Gordon

Baltimore +4 at INDIANAPOLIS 

Maybe if this were a couple years back, I'd be inclined to lay more than field goal with the Colts in this spot, but at this point the only play here is on the Ravens and here's why:

First, while the Colts have won 2 of their last 3, they haven't looked anything like the Colts we remember. In fact, they're averaging just 20 ppg on 313 total yards of offense, and it gets even worse on the other side of the ball. With the injury to Bob Sanders (and Freeney dealing with a hamstring), the Colts run defense (which is already below average) has imploded over the last 3 games, allowing a ridiculous 190 rushing yards per game!

Enter Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain, who've been powering the Black Birds rushing attack to the tune of 153 rushing yards per contest... Can you say "mismatch," as this huge Ravens o-line pushes around the Colts speed rushers en route to consistently moving the chains and chewing up the clock!

Granted, no one likes to back a team starting a rookie QB on the road, but let's not get too carried away. The Colts defense is strong against the pass, and the Ravens wouldn't be throwing the ball much anyway, no matter who started. This game comes down to the Colts being able to stop the run without Bob Sanders, and Indy has given us no reason to believe they can, plain and simple.

Finally, the Colts are 0-4 ATS over their last 4 home games AND 0-5 ATS after a spread cover the week before. Baltimore on the other hand is 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games, and are catching the Colts very short-handed, with 3 of their 4 secondary starters out or limited (S Sanders, CB Hayden, and CB Jackson) as well as possibly DE Freeney and LB Session. In the end, the Colts are simply not playing well enough to lay more than a field goal. Look for the Ravens to keep this one within the number Sunday afternoon!

Take Baltimore plus the points over Indianapolis in this NFL match up.

2&#9830; BALTIMORE

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Michael Cannon

Philadelphia -5 at SAN FRANCISCO 

Take the Eagles as the road chalk this afternoon over the 49ers.

Philly comes into this game off consecutive SUATS losses, including last week’s 23-17 loss to Washington as a 6½-point chalk.

San Francisco is also coming into this one having lost their last two game straight up and ATS.  After such a strong start to the season, quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan has looked rather ordinary, and his three TDs last week were offset by three INTs.

Philadelphia has won and covered the last two meetings in this series, the last being a 38-24 road win laying six points in 2006.  The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Eagles have been money on the road, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight and are on further pointspread runs of 4-1 in non-division road games, 6-2 after a non-cover and 7-3 after a SU loss.

The 49ers are in ATS slides of 5-11 overall, 3-8 after a SU loss, 4-10 against the NFC and 4-9 at home.

Bottom line is Philadelphia absolutely, positively cannot lose this game if they are to remain in contention in the NFC East.

Take the Eagles minus the number as they throttle the 49ers for the win and cover.

3&#9830; PHILADELPHIA


Dallas -5 at ARIZONA

Take the Cowboys as the road chalk for the win.

This is probably the perfect situation for Dallas, as they hit the road after an uninspiring home win over the Bengals last week.

The distractions of losing to Washington then sleepwalking through their win over the 0-5 Bengals will be negated on the road, and good teams usually bond together better on the road.

The SU winner has cashed in six straight games and 13 of the last 14 for Arizona, and I cannot see the Cardinals winning this game, even if it is at home.

Dallas is on a 3-1 SUATS run in this series and won here 27-10 on the road back in 2006 as a 6 ½ point chalk, while the favorite is on a 4-0 ATS run.

I think you’ll see a more focused Cowboys team here on the road, and the offense is going to hammer away at the Cardinals defensive front with Marion Barber.  That will open things up for rookie Felix Jones when he hits the field and also for the play-action passes of Tony Romo.

Dallas is the far better team and after two uninspiring games will get it together on the road and deliver the convincing win and cover.

3&#9830; DALLAS

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Green Bay at SEATTLE -1' 

Even with Matt Hasselbeck a big question mark with his hyperextended knee, we are willing to give Seattle a shot in this near pick'em spot.

Charlie Frye is likely to make his first start of the season for Seattle, and the fact remains, Seattle is getting healthy in the receiver spot, as both Engram, and Branch were back in action last week in their blowout loss at the Giants.

Green Bay comes into this one riding a 3 game losing streak both straight up, and against the spread, and the Packers aren't exactly healthy either, as Aaron Rodgers is still nursing a sore throwing shoulder, and their secondary quite thinned by injury.

Seattle is still 19-9-1 against the spread their last 29 at Qwest Field, and Frye did see extensive action in the preseason, playing in nearly 2 full games for the Seahawks.

This is a big revenge spot for Seattle after last season's playoff blowout loss to the Brett Favre, and the Packers in the snow at Lambeau, and we feel the Seahawks who basically just have to win this game, will do just that.

Play on Seattle, and their strong home field advantage in this one.

2&#9830; SEATTLE

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Drew Gordon

Green Bay at SEATTLE -1 

Do not sleep on the Seahawks today at home, as they got their collective asses handed to them last week at the Giants, and will be looking for some serious redemption this afternoon. Seattle still enjoys one of the best home field edges in all of football, and the fact their 7-1 ATS over their last 8 games at Qwest Field proves it!

Granted, Hasselback and company have been struggling, but if there's one thing that will help this Seahawks offense tremendously this week, its that the Packers cannot stop the run, allowing a laughable 190 rushing yards per game over their last 3 contests! Hasselback is a good quarterback, and once Julius Jones gets going, he'll be freed up to slice and dice the Packers secondary at will this afternoon. True, he do better with his all of his wideouts healthy, but getting Engram back (his favorite target) is a big step forward for this Seattle passing attack.

Seattle also catches Green Bay in the midst of a slump, losers of 3 straight, and having a hell of a time putting points on the board. Don't blame Rodgers, who's been great even with a bum shoulder. Its actually last year's surprise, RB Ryan Grant, who's been invisible this season, thanks in large part to a hamstring injury. Unable to run the rock with any consistency, teams have been teeing up on Rodgers, which is never a good thing for a first year starter. Factor in the tremendous crowd noise and home field edge, and the Packers will struggle more than most think in this contest.

Finally, its important to note that coach Holmgren and the Seahawks do not take kindly to losing, going 5-1 ATS after a SU loss AND 5-1 ATS after ATS loss. In an already huge game against his former team, I believe the 'Hawks regroup nicely at home, and come out motivated as hell after last weeks debacle at the Giants. Packers catching Seattle at the wrong time and the wrong place!

Take Seattle over Green Bay in this NFL match up.

3&#9830; SEATTLE

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JEFF BENTON

For Sunday’s freebie in the NFL, we’ll lay the big chalk with the Vikings in their home game against god-awful Detroit.

How bad are the Lions? They finally fired embattled GM Matt Millen, then had two weeks to prepare for last week’s home game against the Bears … and got shellacked 34-7 as a 3½-point home underdog. And when I say shellacked, I’m talking they produced a grand total of 185 yards of total offense … and gave up 425, allowing Kyle Orton to pass for 334 yards! And get this: In four losses this season, the Lions have been outgained by margins of 166, 136, 130 and 240 yards – and three of those four games were against the pedestrian Falcons, 49ers and Bears!

Oh, and for those keeping track, Detroit has now lost 11 of its last 12 regular-season games, going 1-11 ATS during this slump. The only victory? A 25-20 home win over the Chiefs in Game #15 last year – the same Chiefs who ended 2007 with nine straight losses!

Now you know why I have no qualms about laying two touchdowns with the Vikings, even though Minnesota has only scored two touchdowns (one offensive) at home this year. The Vikes saved their season with Monday night’s 30-27 win at New Orleans, and with the NFC North wide open, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that victory really jump-starts the team many pegged as the favorite to win the North and challenge for the Super Bowl.

The Vikings hammered the Lions 42-10 in the Metrodome last year, finishing with a 443-254 edge in total offense, including 216-23 on the ground – and unlike today, Detroit had starting QB John Kitna for that one (today, the Lions’ offense will be in the hands of untested QB Dan Orlovsky). Throw in these numbers – the Vikings are 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Detroit; the favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in those six meetings; and the Lions are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games – and I’ll lay the big chalk with 100 percent confidence.

7&#9830; MINNESOTA VIKINGS

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SCOTT DELANEY

The Chargers, who are motivated offensively when they’re at home, where they’re riding in on a 9-2 spread run, are much healthier than they were last January, when the Pats eliminated the Bolts in the AFC Championship. Trust me, the Chargers remember that game. This one has the true makings of a shootout. Rather than taking a side, I like the over.

The Patriots played in San Francisco last week and stayed on the West Coast in preparation for this Sunday night affair, and will be well-rested to perform. Last week the defending AFC champs knocked off the Niners, 30-21. And with Matt Cassel becoming much more comfy with this offense, I can’t imagine anything slowing down against the league’s worst passing defense in San Diego.

When these two met in the regular season last year, they put a 52 spot on the board. And since the Chargers come in on runs of 10-2 over after losing against the spread and 4-1 over overall, we can assume they’ll accept the challenge of an offensive battle. With the Patriots, the over is on winning runs of 4-1 on the road and 14-4 following a cover.

Patriots/Chargers OVER

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MATT RIVERS

For Sunday take the Texans at home.

Tony Sporano's Dolphins have won two straight games against the better teams in the league in the Patriots on the road and then at home against LT and the Chargers. I give this Miami team a ton of credit for those victories but they are commanding a bit more respect than they truly deserve by only being the field goal road dog today.

The Texans are winless and not playing good ball after totally blowing that late lead against the Colts last week but this price is dirt cheap and Houston is actually a much better team than they are being given credit for.

If there was ever a value of all values this is it. I'm not dropping a bomb on Gary Kubiak's squad because they are still 0-4 and not the most confident of teams unlike Chad Pennington and the fish who are feeling good about themselves after those last two wins but a few weeks ago this game would have had a number closer to ten and it's not like Houston has a ton of injuries. Matt Schaub is supposed to be back, Andre Johnson is as good as they come at the Wide Receiver position and Mario WiIliams and the Houston defense is no joke and should stifle Ronnie Brown and that garbage option or whatever Miami throws at them.

Houston was right around .500 last season and will start winning some games. Miami may be improving but they are still Miami and well overvalued in this spot and winning on the road for superior teams is hard enough no less when you are a team that really does not have much more talent than the 1-15 group just last season.

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Bob Majors

BAL +4.0 vs IND

The Indianapolis Colts (2-2) are winless at home this season at 0-2 in their new Lucas Oil Stadium.  The Baltimore Ravens (2-2) invade the Colts and attempt to continue their losing streak.

The Ravens could be undefeated if not for their inconsistency and losing both their games by three points each.  QB Joe Flacco was 18-27 for 153 yards and two interceptions in their 13-10 loss to Tennessee last week.  RB Le'Ron McClain also rushed for 51 yards and a touchdown.  The Ravens biggest downfall was 11 penaties which stalled several drives. The defense is one of the best in the NFL.  The Ravens are holding their opponents to 207.3 yards per games and allowing only 14 points per game.

The Colts had to rally from 17 points in the closing minutes of the game last week to defeat Houston 31-27.  QB Peyton Manning threw a 32 yard touchdown and converted a two point conversion to secure the win.  Their defense gave up 391 yards last week and they are allowing 188.5 yards per game in rushing.

The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games overall and also against AFC foes.  The Colts are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 versus AFC oponents and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.

With the Raven playing great defense and staying close in all their games, this is a good spot to receive the generous points and taking the underdog.

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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

5 UNIT PLAY (Total Of The Month)

Cincinnati/ NY Jets Over 42.5

The Over is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games following a bye week, while the Over is 8-3 in Jets last 11 games in October. The Bengals offense came alive a bit last week putting up 22 points on a tough dallas defense and now they face a Jets defense that comes in ranked 2oth overall, 31st vs. the pass and 28th in points allowed. The Bengals should easily get at least 20 points in this one. The Bengals defense has been somewhat decent this year, but they do give up 23.6 ppg and are facing a Jets offense that is 10th in passing, 6th in scoring and they have put up 85 points in their last 2 games. Both teams should be able to score vs. the opposing defenses, which is why I really can?t see this game staying out of the 50?s. Should be a close high scoring game in the Meadowlands.


4 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis +13 over WASHINGTON

The Skins are 0-8 ATS after beating the Eagles when facing a sub .667 opponent and 1-8 ATS vs. teams with a losing record, while the Rams are 7-1 ATS in October vs. an opponent off a SU dog win, plus we note that NFL winless dogs, from game 4 on out are 21-4-1 ATS if playing with rest. How can the Redskins possibly get up for this game after beating the Cowboys and eagles on the road in back-to-back weeks. Now they have to get focused vs. a pathetic St Louis squad that is off a bye week with a new head coach and a more positive attitude. The Rams have been bad on both sides of the ball this year, but I feel that the Skins will come out flat and give St Louis the confidence that they can play with them. Shouldn?t be more than a TD win here for Washington

TEASER OF THE WEEK--3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- St Louis +23, Denver/ Jax Over 38 & Dallas/ Arizona Over 42


3 UNIT PLAY

ATLANTA +3 over Chicago

The Bears are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 6 and 4-17-1 ATS off a win when they allow 100 yards rushing in a game vs. a team with a winning record, while the Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October and 14-4 ATS after allowing 400 yards of offense in back-to-back games. The Bears have to be running on empty a bit right now after opening on SNF vs. the Colts, then having blown two 4th quarter, before an emotional win vs. Philly on SNF and then a road game vs. Detroit last week, plus they have a huge game vs. Minnesota on deck. This could be a flat spot for them. The Falcons come in with the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the league at 180 ypg, but they will be taking on the 4th rated rushing defense in the league. It will be strength on strength as Atlanta gains 5.5 ypg, while the Bears allow just 3.7 ypc. The Atlanta defense has given up their share of yards this year, but the are ranked 14th in the league in points allowed. Matt Ryan owns a 75.3 passer rating overall, but at home that number jumps to 128.8. I just feel that the Falcons are playing with too much confidence right now and will be playing a Chicago squad that may come in here a bit flat. Look for the winning to continue in Atlanta, as they come up with enough big plays to down the Bears here.


2 UNIT PLAYS

Cincinnati +9.5 over NY JETS

The Bengals are 28-13 ATS after gaining less than 99 yards rushing in 2 straight games, while the Jets are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 1-9 ATS in October vs. non-division teams. Last week the Bengals showed they have niot given up as they played the Dallas Cowboys very tough before losing 31-22. The Bengals were actually down just 2 points late in the 4th quarter before Dallas put the game out of reach. The Bengals offense has not gotten on track this year, but they are taking on the worst passing defense in the league and they should have some success today, even with Fitzpatrick behind center. Surprisingly enough the defense has been ahead of the offense for this team as they rank 19th overall and 6th vs. the pass. Teams do love to run vs. the Bengals, but with Favre behind center I really don?t see that happening. Last week the Bengals held a strong Dallas passing attack to just 175 yards. Yes the Jets are 2-2, but they have been outgained in all but the Miami game, where the Jets had just a 16 yard advantage in the game. The Jet?s have really not played that well this year and even though they put up 56 on Arizona they were still outgained by over 100 yards in the game. Cincy is inching closer to a win and while they may not get it here, they won?t lose the game by double digits.

3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Indy +2.5, New Orleans -1 & Miami +9


1 UNIT PLAY

SEATTLE -2 over Green Bay

The Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points, while the 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Last week Seattle fell to 1-3 after a 44-6 loss at the hands of the Giants, and it?s important to note the 1-3 teams, in game 5 off 1 loss exact and they won 11 or more games last year are 7-1 ATS since 1980. The Seahawks have been hit hard by injuries this year and that has them off to the slow start, but you can bet that Holmgren and his team are a bit embarrassed after last week loss and they will bounce back here with their most complete game to date. Green Bay started off 2-0 on the year, but since then this team has gone 0-3 and it has been the defense that has been letting them down, as they have allowed 27, 30 and 27 points in those 3 losses. Overall this defense is ranked 26th in total ?D?, 27th vs. the run and 23rd in points allowed. Seattle offense should be able to run the ball today vs. this week run defense , while their own defense should be able to step it up and hold down this Packers offense that has a hurt Aaron Rodgers behind center. Both teams need a win here but you have to go with the home team, with the better talent to cover the small number.

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Re: Sunday Service PLays

ANDRE GOMES

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

The Colts made a miracle last week by defeating the Texans in an amazing comeback. Curiously the same happened in their win at Minnesota, where the team came from behind to beat the Vikings. The same is to say that their 2-2 record could easily be 0-4 right now. This causes the bettor to not be confident to bet on the Colts and what it looked to be an overrated team before the season is now an underrated team. The line began at 6 for this game and we can already get 3,5 right now.

The Colts was the team on the league which most struggle with injuries in this early season, but things have been getting better for them. The offensive line which was terrible in the protection to Manning in the first games is now impproving and we all know what Manning can do with the necessary protection. The matchup between the offense of the Colts and the defense of the Ravens will be the key of this game.

The Ravens are the best defense on the league right now with 192.5 yards/game and also the best pass defense with just 129 yards allowed. However, there are two important factors that will make the Ravens struggle this week. The first one is that Baltimore is yet to face a good QB like Manning and the second one is that their defense will be short handed for this game. Manning takes advantage of a banged-up secondary. He is one of the few quarterbacks who have had consistent success against the Ravens (a career rating of 102.4). The Ravens will try to slow him down with a secondary that is without cornerback Samari Rolle and safety Dawan Landry.

On the other side, Flacco has been well this season, but he has been turning the ball over in key moments. The rookie quarterback has done an admirable job of limiting his mistakes in the first four games. But his third-quarter fumble in Pittsburgh and his fourth-quarter interception against Tennessee have come at critical times. His confidence for this week won't be the best for sure.

The edge of the Ravens on this game will be on the ground, as the Colts are the worst team on the league in rushing, allowing 188.8 yards/game. But it's important to say that the Ravens are coming from a very tough game against the Titans, which was a tremendous physical confrontation. If you have seen the game or the highlights, we saw that it was a physical game, with defenses dominating the offenses and with a lot of altercations. Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain rushed for 64 and 51 yards last week, but they suffered a lot of hard tackles from the Titans defense.

We have the Colts in here being a small favorites and I remember they are 0-2 at home this season and they will come fired up to finally get an home win this season. The Ravens are being a good surprise this season, but I remember they are 1-8 ATS in road games over the last two seasons. The mismatch between Manning and Flacco will be the key on this game and I have no doubts in taking Indianapolis in here.

PLAY 1* ON COLTS -3 (*buy the 1/2 point*)

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Re: Sunday Service PLays

Rocketman Sports

New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Play:1* San Diego -4 1/2

San Diego is 22-10 ATS last 3 years against conference opponents.  San Diego is 17-7 ATS last 3 years in all games when the total is between 42 1/2 and 49 points.  San Diego is scoring 29.6 points per game overall this year and 36 points per game at home this season.  Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.  Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win.  Patriots are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.  Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 6.  Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.  Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Chargers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in October.  Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  Chargers are 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss.  Chargers are 47-17-2 ATS in their last 66 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Chargers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.  Chargers are 41-18-3 ATS in their last 62 games on grass.  Chargers are 35-16-3 ATS in their last 54 vs. AFC.  Chargers are 46-22-3 ATS in their last 71 games overall.  We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight! 

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Re: Sunday Service PLays

Tony Mathews

St Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Selection: St. Louis Rams +13.5

While neither the Ram’s offense nor defense is really anything to speak of, this particular matchup is one in their favor. Last week was a bye for St. Louis and an incompetent coach Scott Linehan has been replaced by a passionate Jim Haslett. Haslett’s first line of business was to get Marc Bulger back in the starting QB position, a move that has already positively effected the rest of the team’s confidence and motivation.

Washington on the other hand is in a letdown state after huge division upset wins on the road against Dallas and Philadelphia. These were intense games for the Redskins and they are clearly drained in both endurance and mental stamina. To expend the effort on St. Louis is going to be difficult for a team they aren't to interested in taking seriously.

St Louis also has a big edge in a healthy Leonard Little, their key pass rusher. Little is a huge catalyst for the whole defense. There is also the likelihood of interceptions or fumbles on the part of the Redskins since they haven't had any for the past 5 games; they're statistically due.

Washington will also struggle because of some key defensive injuries. Two key playmakers, pass rusher Jason Tyler and cornerback Shawn Springs were both out of last week’s game. St. Louis has an excellent running back in Steven Jackson which will help the Rams significantly in this game.

There are a number of teams in the NFL who are similar to St. Louis and when those teams have been road underdogs of 10 + points they are 7-0 ATS for this year.

Take the Take St. Louis Rams +13.5!

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