Monday Night Football 10/6

Monday Night Football 10/6

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

Oddsmakers currently have the Saints listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Vikings, while the game's total is sitting at 47.

The Vikings lost to Tennessee 30-17 as a 3-point underdog in Week 4. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (36).

Gus Frerotte passed for 266 yards with an interception for Minnesota, while Adrian Peterson rushed for 80 yards on 18 carries with two touchdowns.

The Saints defeated San Francisco 31-17 as a 7-point favorite in Week 4. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48.5).

Drew Brees passed for 363 yards with three touchdowns and an interception for New Orleans, while Lance Moore caught seven passes for 101 yards with two touchdowns in the win.

Team records:
Minnesota: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
New Orleans: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS

Minnesota most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5

New Orleans most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Next up:
Minnesota home to Detroit, Sunday, October 12
New Orleans home to Oakland, Sunday, October 12

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Re: Monday Night Football 10/6

Minnesota (1-3 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (2-2, 3-1 ATS)

The Saints porous defense figures to be tested when the Vikings bring the NFL’s second-leading rusher to the Superdome for a Monday night NFC showdown.

New Orleans has the league’s fifth-worst defense this season and has allowed 1,488 total yards, including 122.8 rushing yards per game. The Saints have been outrushed in three of four games this season, with the only exception coming at home last week when they held the Niners to just 312 total yards, including 91 on the ground, in a 31-17 win as four-point favorites.

Drew Brees has been sensational for New Orleans, averaging a league-high 327.3 passing ypg and ranking third in the NFL with a 106.9 passer rating. He threw for 363 yards and three TDs against San Francisco last week.

Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson has the burden of carrying his team’s offense, which struggles in the passing game. Peterson, who rushed 1,341 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie last year, has amassed 420 yards on the ground through four games, including netting 80 in last week’s 30-17 loss in Tennessee, with the Vikings coming up short as three-point ‘dogs.

The Vikings have won three straight matchups (3-0 ATS) with New Orleans going back to 2002, and they are 6-1 in the last seven meetings (5-2 ATS) dating back to 1995. The last time these two met was in 2005 when Minnesota prevailed 33-16 as a four-point road chalk.

Brad Childress’ Vikings are in ATS slumps of 1-6 overall, 2-5 on the highway and 1-4 following a non-cover. Meanwhile, New Orleans is on pointspread slides of 7-16-1 in the Superdome, 3-8 following a spread-cover, 4-9 against teams with a losing record and 0-4 in Week 5.

New Orleans has struggled at home under the Monday night lights, going 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS), including a loss to Tennessee in Week 3 last year, while the Vikings are 10-17 SU (12-14-1 ATS) on the road on Mondays.

For Minnesota, the over is on runs of 8-0 in Week 5 games, 10-3-1 after an ATS loss and 7-3 on artificial turf, but the Vikings have stayed under the total in eight of their last 10 on Monday night. The Saints sport nothing but over trends, including 8-0-1 overall, 14-3-1 against NFC competition, 6-0-1 at home and 6-0-1 after a spread-cover. Also, all five Monday night games this season have soared over the total, and the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven regular-season meetings between these teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

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Re: Monday Night Football 10/6

Saints, Vikings to hit the ground running
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -Power running, anyone?

Adrian Peterson and Deuce McAllister both have a knack for inflicting pain on tacklers, turning nothing into something and wearing down defenses.

Whether their teams rely on them to the same extent when the Minnesota Vikings visit the New Orleans Saints on Monday night is another matter. Oddsmakers have the Saints set as 3-point favorites with the total at 46 1/2.

''It's not like the spotlight is on me,'' said McAllister, who rushed 20 times for 73 yards and a score in the Saints' 31-17 victory over San Francisco a week ago. ''I'm just adding more to this team, more weapons than what we have.''

Under Sean Payton's version of the West Coast offense, which often uses running backs as receivers, the Saints are unquestionably a passing team. Drew Brees has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of his first two seasons in Payton's system and is on pace to do it again.

Yet there are times when there is no substitute for the type of punishing inside runs on which McAllister has made his living - be it bad weather, third-and-short, or late in the fourth quarter while trying to run out the clock with a slim lead.

Payton wasn't sure how much McAllister had left after coming back from his second knee reconstruction in three seasons. The coach kept the Saints' 29-year-old, all-time rushing leader largely out of the game plan during the first three weeks. And while the Saints generally moved the ball, they failed on pivotal short-yardage runs in close losses at Washington and Denver.

When McAllister returned against the Niners, he looked much like his former self, moving the pile and even diving over it for his first regular-season touchdown since December 2006.

Reggie Bush already gave the Saints a credible threat on outside runs and short receptions out of the backfield. McAllister's strong return invigorated an offensive line that enjoys mixing in a little old-fashioned, straight-ahead meanness to the blocking schemes.

''It's encouraging just because it's a big boy running the ball and the way he runs it ... he's going to punish somebody for getting off a block or trying to reach out with an arm,'' Saints offensive tackle Jon Stinchcomb said. ''It's exciting for an offensive line, just like it's exciting to see Reggie make these amazing cuts and find the little space and turn it into a 60- or 70-yard gain.''

The Vikings don't know how much of McAllister they should expect to see, but they have to be ready for him.

''I don't see a whole lot of ill effects from that injury, and Sean's probably been very patient in working with that even though it's not the easiest thing to do,'' Vikings coach Brad Childress said.

Childress' patience has been tested, too, though not in the running game. After losses in the Vikings' first two games, Childress replaced 25-year-old quarterback Tarvaris Jackson with 37-year-old journeyman Gus Frerotte.

Frerotte's receivers include big-play threat Bernard Berrian, but the passing game is not what drives Minnesota. It's Peterson, who ranks second in the NFL with 420 yards rushing.

When Saints defenders talked about Peterson this week, it was reminiscent of what people used to say about McAllister in 2002 and 2003, when he made consecutive Pro Bowls.

''He possesses all the tools: speed, strength, size and attitude,'' Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma said. ''When you watch him run, you can tell he's very competitive. We know they're going to run the ball. It's no secret. They've got a great back, a great offensive line, so it's going to be a huge challenge.''

Peterson does not sound frustrated by his team's slow start. He sees his success as a foundation upon which Minnesota can build and get stronger as the season goes on, perhaps peaking around playoff time as the defending champion New York Giants did last season.

''We know what type of team we have,'' Peterson said. ''You can start off slow, but you can always pick it up and finish strong and that's what it's all about.''

Minnesota's rough start can't last much longer, however, or the Vikings' early-season hole could become too deep, like the Saints' 0-4 start was in 2007.

Peterson sees a road game on Monday night as an ideal place to begin the climb back into playoff contention.

''It will be a good way to bounce back, going into a hostile environment in New Orleans,'' Peterson said. ''Fans will be in that dome drunk, crazy and yelling. It will be a good atmosphere to go out and know what we got. In the playoffs you have to be able to win on the road. It's going to be a good test.''

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Re: Monday Night Football 10/6

Trend Sheet

MINNESOTA vs. NEW ORLEANS

Minnesota at New Orleans
Minnesota: 42-19 Over Away off ATS loss
New Orleans: 8-1 Over off home win

Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Re: Monday Night Football 10/6

Tips and Trends

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Vikings: The Vikings daunting early season schedule continues tonight with a trip to 2-2 New Orleans. Quarterback Frerotte led the Vikings to a 20-10 victory over Carolina in his first start, but Minnesota fell to 1-3 by making far too many mistakes in a 30-17 loss last Sunday to the Titans. Minnesota is getting a key cog of its offense back this week. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie rejoined the Vikings after being suspended for the first four games for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. The Vikings lead this series 19-7 and are 7-5 at New Orleans. The Vikings have won 11 of the past 14 games between the two teams.

Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Key Injuries - OT Bryant McKinnie (suspension) is expected to return.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Saints (-3, O/U 47): Fueled by Drew Brees’ league-high 1,343 yards through the air, the Saints are leading the NFL in passing yards with 327.2 yards per game. That could be a huge advantage tonight facing a Vikings defense that has had trouble in the past defending strong passing teams. The Saints still rank near the bottom of the NFL when it comes to running the football but the team expects that to change soon with the return of Deuce McAllister. McAllister saw his first action of the season last week against San Francisco and is expected to be more involved in the offense tonight. The Saints will need to sure up a rush defense that’s allowing 122 yards per game with Adrian Peterson coming to town.

Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 5.

Key Injuries - TE Jeremy Shockey (hernia) is OUT.
WR Marques Colston (thumb) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side Play of the Day)

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Re: Monday Night Football 10/6

Minnesota at New Orleans
By Brian Edwards

Monday Night Football returns to The Big Easy this week, as New Orleans (2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) plays host to Minnesota.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Saints as four-point favorites with a total of 45 ½. As of early this morning, most books had New Orleans listed as a three-point ‘chalk’ with the total at 46 ½.

Sean Payton’s team has won both of its previous games at the Superdome. The Saints won their season opener 24-20 over Tampa Bay as three-point home favorites. In Week 4, they spanked San Francisco 31-17 as 4½-point ‘chalk.’

Even with Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey out of the lineup, Drew Brees threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers. Deuce McAllister played a significant role for the first time since tearing his ACL last season. McAllister rushed 20 times for 73 yards and one touchdown. Lance Moore had seven receptions for 101 yards and two TDs.

Minnesota (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) is playing its second road game in as many weeks. Brad Childress’s team is off a 30-17 loss at Tennessee as a 3 ½-point underdog. Gus Frerotte threw for 263 yards, but he didn’t have a touchdown pass and was intercepted once. Adrian Peterson ran for 80 yards and a pair of TDs, but he had just 18 carries.

Peterson has been held to less than 100 yards in back-to-back games, begging the question: Why isn’t he getting the ball more? Peterson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and he’s a home-run threat on every touch. Nevertheless, Minnesota asked Frerotte to throw 43 times against the Titans, while Peterson was given just 18 totes.

The Vikings hope to gash a New Orleans defense that surrenders 122.1 yards per game rushing to rank 20th in run defense. The 27th-ranked Saints’ defense will be missing rookie defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, who is out 3-4 week with a knee injury.

Another issue Childress needs to get corrected is turnovers. The Vikings put the ball on the ground four times at Tennessee, losing three of those fumbles.

Frerotte left last week’s game with a bruise to his non-throwing shoulder, but he will get his third straight start ahead of Tarvaris Jackson, who was benched after the team lost its first two games. Jackson completed his only pass in relief of Frerotte, but the Titans sacked him twice.

While the Vikings have all sorts of QB issues, the Saints might have the league’s most consistent signal caller. Brees is completing 72.3 percent of his passes for an NFL-best 1,343 yards. The Purdue product has an 8/4 touchdown-interception ratio. Even without his two favorite targets, there has been zero decline in Brees’s production.

Shockey and Colston remain “out” this week, in addition to veteran WR David Patten. The defense will be without Ellis and CB Aaron Glenn.

For the Vikings, the status of three starters is uncertain. Linebacker E.J. Henderson is “doubtful,” while WRs Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice are “questionable.” On the bright side, OT Bryant McKinnie is set to return after serving a four-game suspension.

Berrian, who has 11 catches but zero touchdowns after signing with Minnesota as a free agent, appears more likely to play than Rice. The South Carolina product was injured in Week 2 and didn’t play two weeks ago. Rice only played sparingly in the loss to the Titans.

From 2004-2007, New Orleans posted an abysmal 5-16 spread record as a home favorite. This year, however, the Saints have taken the cash in both home ‘chalk’ roles.

Minnesota has lost both of its road games SU and ATS in 2008. Under Childress, the Vikings are 6-7-2 ATS in 15 games as road underdogs.

The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 overall for the Saints, 1-0-1 in their home games. The ‘over’ has cashed in both of the Vikings’ road games.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Reggie Bush had 15 touches (10 rushing, five receptions) for only 38 yards in last week’s victory.

--The Vikings have won in their last two trips to New Orleans, including their last visit in October of 2004.

--Michael “The Burner” Turner led Atlanta to a 27-24 win Sunday at Green Bay. Turner had 26 carries for 121 yards and one touchdown as the Falcons improved to an improbable 3-2. Rookie QB Matt Ryan shook off a terrible interception in the end zone early in the fourth quarter and threw a 22-yard scoring strike to Roddy White that put the game out of reach. Ryan completed 16-of-26 passes for 194 yards, two TDs and one interception. White caught eight passes for 132 yards, while DE John Abraham collected his NFL-best seventh sack.

--Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers played well despite missing virtually every practice with a shoulder injury this past week. Rodger, who often appeared to be in pain, connected on 25-of-37 throws for 313 yards, three TDs and one interception.

--Dallas Drama Queen WR Terrell Owens is back to his mysterious ways. Can you imagine being around that chafe on a daily basis? When meeting with the media after Sunday’s 31-22 win over the Bengals, T.O. “broke out the Religion Card.” He didn’t take questions after a rambling rant that made little sense and seemed to portray himself as some sort of victim. Owens had just two catches for 83 yards and one touchdown. I smell all sorts of drama this week in Dallas.

--In Miami's 17-10 win over San Diego as a 6 1/2-point home favorite, Dolphins' RB Ronnie Brown had 24 carries for 125 yards and one touchdown. LaDainian Tomlinson had just 12 rushes for 35 yards and zero TDs.

--The Giants and Titans are the only unbeaten teams left.

--Kurt Warner's stat line in Arizona's 41-17 home win over Buffalo with Anquan Boldin out of the lineup: 33/42, 250 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT's. The 3-2 Cardinals lead the NFC West by one game over the 49ers.

--Offensive Player of the Week:
Chicago QB Kyle Orton completed 24-of-34 passes for 334 yards, two TDs and no interceptions in a 34-7 win at Detroit. The win gave the Bears sole possession of first place in the NFC North.

--Defensive Player of the Week:
Pittsburgh LB Lamarr Woodley had six solo tackles and two sacks in a 26-21 win at Jacksonville. With Baltimore losing at Tennessee, the Steelers took a two-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North.

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Re: Monday Night Football 10/6

Monday Night Football Research
By Indiancowboy

Vikings vs. New Orleans

Any time there is 70% + of the public on a team, it is reason to be wary. But, Vegas is not getting off this line. So, the question begs, why is this line so low? Well, one reason could be that Colston is still out. The other reason is that Ferrotte is now listed for probable for this game and given his presences, this Vikings team is solid. Remember, the line opened up at 46 and the total has gone up and the line opened up at -4 for the Saints and has actually come down. In fact, in some off-shore books, the line opened up at 45.5 and has gone up. Of course, the line could have gone up because over 65% of the public is on the over as well. So, the biggest burial would happen in this game if the game goes under and the Vikings. The Vikings come off a tough loss on the road to the Titans and they look to bounce-back here. Let's just put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go for the Vikings with Ferrotte - with Tavaris Jackson, it will go the Saints. But, I like the Ferrotte a decent amount and remember the Titans are solid so that loss shouldn't look as bad as the score displays for the Vikings. As per me, no lean one way or the other, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Vikings win here. I'm just staying away from the massive public favorite. Although, typically such a short line does indicate that a over is likely to take place.

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Re: Monday Night Football 10/6

MNF Preview From TheSpread.com

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-t … es-ma.html

The New Orleans Saints turned in their best defensive performance of the season last weekend, thanks to a particularly effective effort against the run.

They're sure to be challenged in their next game as they try to contain one of the NFL's top running backs.

The Saints will have to contend with second-year star Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings when the teams meet at the Superdome in a Monday night matchup.

Oddsmakers from SBG Global have made Saints -3 point spread favorites (View NFL Football odds) for Monday’s game (Game Matchup). Current public betting information shows that 77% of bets for this game have been placed on Saints -3 (View NFL Football bet percentages).

Though New Orleans (2-2) has surrendered 1,488 yards - the fifth-highest total in the league - through its first four contests, it has been better against the run, limiting opponents to 122.8 per game.

The Saints held San Francisco to a season-low 312 yards - 91 on the ground - in a 31-17 home victory on Sunday.

A matchup with Minnesota (1-3), though, presents a very different set of challenges because of Peterson, who has established himself as one of the league's top backs very quickly.

He carried 238 times for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns as a rookie last season, and is showing no signs of a sophomore slump, ranking second in the NFL with 420 yards, two fewer than Atlanta's Michael Turner.

Peterson rushed 18 times for 80 yards in a 30-17 loss at Tennessee on Sunday, the second straight game he was held under 100 yards.

"We've seen some real good runners both at home and on the road, but this guy is the best we've seen to date," coach Sean Payton told the Saints' official Web site. "That's no slight on anyone that we've played to date, but there's something else about him and the guys blocking for him are something else. (Peterson's) big and strong - he's exceptional."

New Orleans could be short-handed on the defensive line, as rookie tackle Sedrick Ellis left practice on Thursday to have his right knee examined.

"He felt it kind of click on him, so we sent him in to have it looked at," Payton said. "Hopefully, it's nothing serious."

While the Vikings' offense revolves around Peterson and the run, the Saints usually pin their hopes on quarterback Drew Brees, the NFL's third-highest rated passer (106.9). New Orleans is averaging a league-best 327.3 passing yards per game.

Brees completed 23 of 35 for 363 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers, connecting twice with Lance Moore and once with rookie Robert Meachem, who had two receptions for a season-best 99 yards.

The Saints were successful despite playing without injured receiver Marques Colston (thumb) and tight end Jeremy Shockey (abdomen).

With those two sidelined, Deuce McAllister helped pick up the slack. He carried 20 times for 73 yards and a touchdown after he was limited to 10 yards on two carries in a loss at Washington on Sept. 14. The team's all-time leading rusher continues to work his way back after undergoing a second knee operation last fall.

"It was great to see Deuce back in there," Payton said. "Those were some tough yards that he was getting for us."

McAllister hasn't been too successful in his career against Minnesota, totaling 50 carries for 210 yards and three TDs in four games.

The Saints haven't fared well against the Vikings either, losing 17 of 24 regular-season contests, including six of the last seven.

Playing at home didn't provide the Saints with much of an advantage last season as they went 3-5 at the Superdome, but they are undefeated in two games there this year.

New Orleans look to remain perfect at home against a Vikings team that has started 1-3 for the second time in three seasons.

Four turnovers were too much for Minnesota to overcome in Sunday's loss to the Titans.

"Obviously, we have to do a better job of taking care of the football," Vikings coach Brad Childress said. "When you spot somebody 21 points on turnovers those are pivotal things. Turnovers is the No. 1 statistic in this business. It's disappointing."

Quarterback Gus Frerotte was responsible for one of those takeaways, tossing an interception in what was an otherwise strong performance. He went 25-for-43 for 266 yards, but hurt his left, non-throwing hand late in the fourth quarter.

Backup Tarvaris Jackson, who was replaced by Frerotte as the starter after Minnesota's 0-2 start, completed one pass for eight yards and was sacked twice. It is unclear which will be under center on Monday.

The Vikings have won their last two visits to New Orleans, including a 38-31 win on Oct. 17, 2004 in their most recent appearance.

Top Trends for this game:
NEW ORLEANS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
Key Player Injuries:
MINNESOTA
[DE] Jayme Mitchell IR - Knee - 08/09/08
[LB] Vinny Ciurciu left last game, "?" - Knee - 09/22/08
[ST] Madieu Williams is expected to miss 6 weeks. - Neck - 08/15/08
[DT] Kenderick Allen IR - Wrist - 08/19/08
[LB] Heath Farwell IR - Knee - 08/11/08
[WR] Sidney Rice missed last game, %27?%27 - Knee - 09/21/08
[OT] Bryant McKinnie expected to miss 4 games. - Suspension - 08/14/08
[DE] Kenechi Udeze expected to miss entire season - Illness - 08/16/08
NEW ORLEANS
[DB] Aaron Glenn missed last game %27?%27 - Knee - 09/21/08
[TE] Mark Campbell missed last game, "?" - Hamstring - 09/22/08
[RB] Aaron Stecker missed last game %27?%27 - Hamstring - 09/21/08
[OT] Jammal Brown left last game, "?" - Hip - 09/22/08
[CB] Randall Gay left last game, "?" - Hamstring - 09/22/08
[WR] David Patten left last game, "?" - Groin - 09/22/08
[DT] Antwan Lake missed last game %27?%27 - Groin - 09/21/08
[WR] Marques Colston expected to miss 4-6 weeks - Thumb - 09/10/08
[OG] Jamar Nesbit has been suspended for 4 games - Suspension - 09/23/08
[LB] Scott Fujita missed last game is %27?%27 - Knee - 09/22/08
[TE] Jeremy Shockey expected to miss 3-6 weeks. - Hernia - 09/22/08
[LB] Mark Simoneau IR - Back - 09/12/08

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