Sunday Premium Service Plays

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Executive

350% Tenn
300% Detroit
300% San Fran

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

BIG AL

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the SF 49ers plus the points over New England. Without Tom Brady, the Patriots' vaunted offensive attack has sputtered. As evidence, consider that, at this time last year, WR Randy Moss had 22 catches for 403 yards and 5 touchdowns. But since QB Matt Cassel took over, Moss has only nine catches for 111 yards. Perhaps we should not be surprised that New England has fallen on hard times. After all, the Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Giants last year, and for the last eight years, the loser of the Super Bowl has struggled mightily the following season. I'm not one to believe in jinxes, but it's worth noting that the only Super Bowl loser to return to the Playoffs over the past 8 seasons was Seattle in 2006 (notwithstanding the face that the Seahawks posted four less wins that year). Also, dating back to 1986, .400 (or better) Super Bowl runners-up are an awful 0-18 ATS as road favorites of -4 or less (or pk) against non-division foes! Finally, .400 to .799 home dogs of +2.5 to +10.5 points are a super 39-10 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss as a favorite of more than 10 points. With New England off a 38-13 loss as a 13-point favorite vs. Miami, we'll fade the Patriots and take San Francisco on this Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 21-0 ATS Sunday NFL Winner, or my Monday Night Game of the Month.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Washington. Last week, the Eagles fell 24-20 at Chicago, while Washington won its 3rd straight game -- an upset of previously undefeated Dallas as a 10.5-point underdog. But since 1991, underdogs off an upset win as a dog of more than 10 points have covered just 9 of 39 games! These teams have huge letdowns the following week. The Eagles' offense was in disarray last week partly because of the absence of star RB Brian Westbrook, who led the NFL with 2104 yards from scrimmage last season. Westbrook was injured in Philly's win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago, but should return for this divisional game vs. the Redskins. Westbrook practiced fully on Friday, and looked good to observers. Getting him back is important, as Philly scored 75 points (with Westbrook contributing five TDs) in its first two games this season. The Eagles match up extremely well vs. a Redskin team that likes to run the ball with Clinton Portis. Philly is the best NFL team against the run, surrendering a meager 53 yards per game, and 2.6 yards per carry. Washington likely will be without two of its best defensive players -- Jason Taylor and Shawn Springs -- which will help Philly as well. The Eagles are 2-0 ATS at home this year and will win this game in blowout fashion. NFC East Game of the Year on the Eagles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Monday Night Game of the Month or my other big Baseball + Football Winners on Sunday.

At 4:05pm our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox 'under' the total. Tampa could quit now and the 2008 season would still be considered the best in their history by far. But with their top starters of Shields, Kazmir, and tonight's young Matt Garza among the best three-man rotation in baseball, the Rays are anything but close to done. In fact this cinderella of a team is just one win away from the ALCS and Garza may be just the guy to get them there, although winning on the road has not exactly been Tampa's strong point this season (40-41 record). Another problem facing Tampa tonight: The Rays have had real issues with lefthanders in 2008, batting only .247 as a team against them, which is 20 points lower than their average vs. righties. And Chicago's John Danks isn't just any southpaw, but one of the best in the American League with a 12-9 record, 3.32 ERA, and only 182 hits surrendered in 195 innings. Danks threw quality starts in all three of his outings against Tampa in '08, although only one of those was at home. The under is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings of these two teams. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 5* American League Game of the Year today.

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. Take the Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Monday Night Football Game of the Month tomorrow. We cashed our September Monday Night Game of the Month on Baltimore last week!

At 7:15pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Boston Red Sox. It would seem that the Sox have the Angels playoff number, having now beat them in the last eight postseason games, although Los Angeles seems to finally be getting close to taking one as game 2 in Anaheim went down to the wire and a 2-run homer by JD Drew decided it. Boston righthander Josh Beckett may be one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball history, but there are two reasons why he is vulnerable tonight. First, no matter what anybody says, Beckett is far from 100% as he has a nagging oblique injury. And despite throwing a 65-pitch session that he and his coaches deemed a success, this is the type of injury that generally does not heal very quickly and will likely prove to be bothersome tonight. And second, Beckett has had a sub-par campaign in 2008 and lost both of his starts to this Angel team. His last one at home at the end of July was one of his ugliest outings of the season as LA pasted Boston in that game by a score of 9-2. Most people aren't expecting anything out of lefthander Joe Saunders tonight and that is exactly why you should like him in this spot. Saunders' stuff may not always be pretty, but he usually finds a way to win, and that quiet confidence almost always serves him well against this opponent. In three starts against the Sox in the 2008 regular season, Suanders has been completely dominant and the Angels won all three contests. In fact, Saunders has never lost to Boston in six career starts against them (4-0 with a 2.89 ERA). Saunders had the 7th best ERA in the A.L. this season, and Anaheim has won 14 of its last 16 (88%) off back-to-back losses. American League Game of the Year on Anaheim. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Baseball Totals Winner, as we're 3-0 on our Playoff Over/Under selections this post-season.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Jeffersonsports

Colts-3 -135
Colts over 48.5
Philly-6

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

THESE ARE ALL LATE GAMES FROM EARLIER POSTS TO MAKE IT EASIER TO SEE WHAT'S LEFT

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

The Prez

8* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Over

Conditions: 70 degrees with light winds swirling inside the mostly enclosed venue It was just a matter of time before the Cowboys experienced the bad "T.O Factor" and their first bit of adversity in 2008. After sleepwalking through a 26-24 loss to the Washington Redskins Sunday afternoon, the Boyz received their quarterly wakeup call. The call that nearly all NFL teams receive. Ask the Broncos? Dallas was admiring themselves far too much heading into last week's divisional matchup against Washington -- that all changed their home loss to the hated Skins.

Bengals' defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, who spent 10-plus years with the Cowboys as an assistant coach and coordinator and is now the Bengals' DC. He knows the subtle weaknesses of Tony Romo and will force his hand early on in this game. Expect the Bengals to give up everything underneath on Sunday afternoon, but eventually realize that Romo has grown enough to exploit the soft holes in their zones.

We expect zero man coverage from the Bengals, little to no blitzing and a ton of exotic looks. If Cincy had an ounce of talent on the stop-side of the football we'd consider giving them a chance and jump head first on the 17-points Dallas is giving up. Romo is careless, that's his gunslinger mentality, and he'll give the Bengals more than one short field on Sunday.

The winless Bengals are a mess; and with or without Carson Palmer this game is all about offense, big plays by both defenses and a lot of points as a result. With Palmer under center the two teams will combine to cross the 60-point mark, without him the contest still topples 50 in total points. There's no guarantee Palmer will play (TP sources report he will throw on Thursday, practice on Friday and start Sunday), but the Cowboys are the real story here. They will be more balanced in their play calling and shred a piss pour Cincy defense. Dallas can throw four capable receivers at the Bengals defense and Cincinnati has no matchup answer for TE Jason Witten.

However, Dallas' pass defense is suspect, and no matter who is tossing the football to Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh -- this is the strongest total on the Week 5 card.

Once Palmer is announced as the starter for Sunday's game, the total in this game will creep upward. Get down on the current 44 mark now.

The OVER is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

The OVER is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in October.

Cowboys score at least 35 points Sunday making this a Big Game OVER the TOTAL play.

8 UNIT Play on the OVER

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Vernon Croy

20 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK** (76% Overall this NFL Season)

New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers
Condition: Under

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are solid defensively. New England's defense has allowed just 19.3 ppg this season and 10 points in their only road game while the 49ers defense has allowed just 262.5 ypg at home this season and 18 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 games as a home dog of 3 points or less and the Patriots offense has struggled without Tom Brady this season averaging just 16.3 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 home games and their offense will not be able to get much done against the Patriots veteran defense. The O/U is 5-11 for the Patriots in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less and I look for an offensive struggle by both of these teams Sunday afternoon. Take the Under as my NFL Total of the Week and make sure you get on my NFL Smash of the Year which I have winning hands down Sunday as my 76% season run continues.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Stephen Nover

Double-Dime Bet

DEN / TAM Over 48.0

Analysis: The Denver Broncos have gone 'over' in all four of their matchups this season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos can't stop anybody, allowing an average of 34.3 points in their last three games, while averaging nearly 34 points.

The Broncos have one of the worst defensive fronts in the NFL. Their linebackers are below average, too. In addition, cornerback Dre Bly has slowed up considerably. Tampa Bay can attack this. The Buccaneers don't have great skill position players, but they have a very sharp offensive-minded coach in Jon Gruden. He'll have veteran Brian Griese probe Denver's many weak spots. Earnest Graham is an underrated running back and veteran Warrick Dunn can be effective, too, versus this defense. The Buccaneers have gone 'over' in eight of their last 10 games.

Tampa Bay's defense is good, but small. It's not a dominant unit. Jay Cutler certainly can pass on the Buccaneers. Brandon Marshall may be the best wide receiver in the AFC right now. Denver has gone 'over' in 14 of its past 17 home games. The Broncos also have gone 'over' 81 percent of the time during their last 27 games on grass. The Broncos also are 11-1 to the 'over' following a loss.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Dr. Bob

San Francisco (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 (-115 odds or better) or more and 2-Stars from +3 (-120 or worse) to +1.

3 Star Selection
SAN FRANCISCO 23 New England (-3.5) 17

I’ve been on the 49ers twice as Best Bets (1-1 in those) and once as a Strong Opinion (win over Detroit ) and I’m on them again this week against a Patriots’ team that is favored due to reputation rather than reality. New England was demolished 13-38 at home by the lowly Dolphins in week 3 prior to their bye week and the Pats have been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 6.0 yppl while being out-scored by an average of 16.3 to 19.3 against a schedule that is 3.6 points easier than an average schedule. It’s no surprise that the Patriots’ offense is struggling without Tom Brady, as backup Matt Cassell has averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play despite facing teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Opponents are blitzing Cassell into submission (he’s been sacked 10 times) and the rushing attack has been just mediocre (4.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.0 ypr to an average team). The real question is what has happened to the defense? New England has allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average team, but those numbers are misleading given that the Patriots played decent defense in two games while getting destroyed by Miami , who averaged 8.1 yppl in their stunning win. The Patriots’ defense wasn’t really good prior to that game, as they allowed 4.9 yppl to Kansas City and New York , who would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team (adjusted for New England facing KC’s Croyle and Huard and not the horrendous Tyler Thigpen). If the Patriots are average at best defensively, and they haven’t shown in any game that they’re any better than that, then they’ll struggle against a good 49ers’ attack that has averaged 5.9 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. The Niners also have an advantage over New England ’s sub-par offense, as they’ve allowed just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. The 49ers held 3 of 4 teams to 4.9 yppl or less before Drew Brees lit them up last week and Matt Cassell is no Drew Brees. Expect San Francisco to keep the Patriots around their average of 16 points. My math model using this year’s stats only favors San Francisco by 11 points in this game, but New England ’s stats have been skewed by one horrible game. However, I decided to take the Miami loss out of the equation and I still get San Francisco by 3 ½ points in this game. Of course, I’d get the Niners by about 7 points if I also took out their worst game (last week’s loss to the Saints), but I’m trying to create a best case scenario for the Patriots and the Niners by 3 ½ points is it. In addition to the line value, San Francisco applies to a very strong 99-34-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 60-21-3 ATS when applying to home teams. You might think that the Patriots are due to kick some ass after losing to Miami , but the Pats are just 7-10 ATS as a favorite following a loss under coach Belichick, including 0-3 ATS after a bye week. I’ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-120 odds or worse) to +1.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Jeff Bonds

Double-Dime Bet

JAC -4.0 vs PIT

This game is an absolute gift at this price - considering that Jacksonville has been pretty much the only NFL team to enjoy success against Pittsburgh over the past 10 years.

It's even more of a gift considering that Pittsburgh is coming off TWO highly physical games in back-to-back weeks (Philadelphia/Baltimore)....so physical - that both of its top running backs are banged up (one for the year).

This means Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to throw behind an offensive line that - to put it lightly - doesn't have a prayer this Sunday with the recent injury to guard Kendall Simmons.

When Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has to throw the ball more than 20 times a game - the Steelers are a terrible 1-7 ATS in the last eight situations.

Jacksonville picks up a BIG VICTORY to keep them from going under .500 (a huge factor in the NFL) and moves the Pittsburgh Steelers to 0-15 ATS in their last 15 road defeats. They've failed to cover the previous 14 by more than 11 points!

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections

"Private Investors Club" NFL GAME OF THE YEAR
Jacksonville -4

The Experts Guaranteed Selections

ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH
Arizona -1

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

ASA

5* Arizona Cardinals

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Big Al

At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the SF 49ers plus the points over New England. Without Tom Brady, the Patriots' vaunted offensive attack has sputtered. As evidence, consider that, at this time last year, WR Randy Moss had 22 catches for 403 yards and 5 touchdowns. But since QB Matt Cassel took over, Moss has only nine catches for 111 yards. Perhaps we should not be surprised that New England has fallen on hard times. After all, the Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Giants last year, and for the last eight years, the loser of the Super Bowl has struggled mightily the following season. I'm not one to believe in jinxes, but it's worth noting that the only Super Bowl loser to return to the Playoffs over the past 8 seasons was Seattle in 2006 (notwithstanding the face that the Seahawks posted four less wins that year). Also, dating back to 1986, .400 (or better) Super Bowl runners-up are an awful 0-18 ATS as road favorites of -4 or less (or pk) against non-division foes! Finally, .400 to .799 home dogs of +2.5 to +10.5 points are a super 39-10 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss as a favorite of more than 10 points. With New England off a 38-13 loss as a 13-point favorite vs. Miami, we'll fade the Patriots and take San Francisco on this Sunday.


At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. System Game of the Month on the Cardinals.


At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Buffalo. Last week, Arizona was blitzed by Brett Favre and the Jets 56-35, but off that embarassing loss, fall into a super 26-0 ATS system of mine. For this game against Buffalo, Arizona has been installed as a favorite of a point, but since 1980, .181 (or better) NFL home teams are 26-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 3 points; they lost their previous game, and surrendered 38 or more points in the process; and they are matched up against a .290 (or better) opponent which scored 28 or more in a win of more than 11 points in its previous game. With Buffalo off a 35-14 blowout of St. Louis, this Cardinals/Bills game perfectly qualifies in our 26-0 ATS system. The Cardinals opened the season with back-to-back wins, but have dropped their last two games to fall to 2-2 on the year. But since 1990, Arizona is a sparkling 40-18 ATS at home off 2+ losses, including 26-3 ATS when priced from -5.5 to +5 points. Take the Cardinals


Opinions Niners


At 4:05pm our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox 'under' the total. Tampa could quit now and the 2008 season would still be considered the best in their history by far. But with their top starters of Shields, Kazmir, and tonight's young Matt Garza among the best three-man rotation in baseball, the Rays are anything but close to done. In fact this cinderella of a team is just one win away from the ALCS and Garza may be just the guy to get them there, although winning on the road has not exactly been Tampa's strong point this season (40-41 record). Another problem facing Tampa tonight: The Rays have had real issues with lefthanders in 2008, batting only .247 as a team against them, which is 20 points lower than their average vs. righties. And Chicago's John Danks isn't just any southpaw, but one of the best in the American League with a 12-9 record, 3.32 ERA, and only 182 hits surrendered in 195 innings. Danks threw quality starts in all three of his outings against Tampa in '08, although only one of those was at home. The under is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings of these two teams. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 5* American League Game of the Year today.


At 7:15pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Boston Red Sox. It would seem that the Sox have the Angels playoff number, having now beat them in the last eight postseason games, although Los Angeles seems to finally be getting close to taking one as game 2 in Anaheim went down to the wire and a 2-run homer by JD Drew decided it. Boston righthander Josh Beckett may be one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball history, but there are two reasons why he is vulnerable tonight. First, no matter what anybody says, Beckett is far from 100% as he has a nagging oblique injury. And despite throwing a 65-pitch session that he and his coaches deemed a success, this is the type of injury that generally does not heal very quickly and will likely prove to be bothersome tonight. And second, Beckett has had a sub-par campaign in 2008 and lost both of his starts to this Angel team. His last one at home at the end of July was one of his ugliest outings of the season as LA pasted Boston in that game by a score of 9-2. Most people aren't expecting anything out of lefthander Joe Saunders tonight and that is exactly why you should like him in this spot. Saunders' stuff may not always be pretty, but he usually finds a way to win, and that quiet confidence almost always serves him well against this opponent. In three starts against the Sox in the 2008 regular season, Suanders has been completely dominant and the Angels won all three contests. In fact, Saunders has never lost to Boston in six career starts against them (4-0 with a 2.89 ERA). Saunders had the 7th best ERA in the A.L. this season, and Anaheim has won 14 of its last 16 (88%) off back-to-back losses. American League Game of the Year on Anaheim. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss my Baseball Totals Winner, as we're 3-0 on our Playoff Over/Under selections this post-season.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Ron Raymond

5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH

Buccaneers / Broncos Under 46.5


SPYLOCK

5 units San Francisco +3


Al Demarco

25 Dime

Denver Broncos -3


Kevin Kavitch

4* Arizona -1.5

Buffalo is the better team but I like this setup. Arizona is off a bad loss to the Jets where they fell behind big in the 1st half and couldn't catch up. Their division is wide open and they have enough offense to play hard and bounce back at home. Buffalo is playing well but they aren't special. The last 2 weeks they've been shaky, nipping Oakland late and trailing for quite awhile vs the hapless Rams. Some teams have a hard time mentally to deal with success and the way their past 2 games have gone they seem that way. Byes next week (Buffalo) can be a big red flag and sitting at 4-0 I don't see them matching Arizona's intensity in a non-conference game. One last thing. Well over 60% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo but Arizona has moved from a pick to a small favorite. Seen this movie before, smart money is on Arizona, public is on the 4-0 "red-hot" Bills. Take Arizona -1.5 for a 4* Regular Play.


Maddux Sports


3 units on San Francisco +3.5
3 units on Arizona -1
3 units on Pittsburgh +5.5


Nathan Armstrong

5* Total Of The Month Denver/Tampa Under
3* Cardinals
3* Cinci/Dallas Over


BEN BURNS

Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Under

Last week's results have helped to give us excellent value here. Buffalo rallied to beat St. Louis by a 31-14 score, sneaking over the total. Meanwhile, Arizona combined with the Jets for a whopping 91 points, suffering a 56-35 loss. Obviously, the Arizona defense will be wanting to bounce back with a significantly better effort. It should be noted that many of those points were caused by turnovers. More importantly, note that the Cardinals had only allowed an average of 15.67 points through their previous three games, showing that they are actually much stronger than the score against the Jets indicates. As for the Bills, they're allowing just 15.8 points per game. They're also limiting opponents to a 19.8% third down conversion rate, which is the best mark in the entire league. Even with last week's game (barely) finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a profitable 8-3 the last 11 times the Bills played on the road. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 19-8 the last 27 times that the Bills played a road game with a total ranging from pick'em to +3. During that same stretch, the UNDER was a highly profitable 64-38 in all Buffalo games which had a line the +3 to -3 range. The Bills played back to back road games twice last season and they averaged only 12 points in the second of those back to back games, most recently a 17-16 game vs. the Redskins. Last year's lone road game played in October saw the Bills combine with the Jets for a mere 16 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 9-2 their last 11 October road games. While the Bills will be without receiver/returner Parrish, the Cardinals may well be without star wideout Boldin. Either way, I expect a fairly heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. Note that the Cardinals average 27 running plays per game while the Bills average 29. Look for a big game from both defenses and for the final score to prove much lower than expected, finishing below the inflated number. *Non Conference Total of the Month


Nelly's Sportsline

5* Patriots
4* Buccaneers


Indian Cowboy

Arizona -1 over Buffalo


JB Sports 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -5 POD

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Beat Your Bookie

50 - Jacksonville
50 - Dallas


Bob Balfe

Phillies -115


PSYCHIC

2 units Denver -3
5 units Arizona -1.5
WISEGUY

DA STICK

10 units New England -3
10 units Dallas -16


Steven Budin-CEO

50 DIME

ARIZONA


Two Minute Warning

Best Bets
Investor

Denver -3
Arizona -1
Cincinnati +16 1/2


Yourwinningpicks

*****BEST BET*****New England Patriots (3.5) VS.20SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The Patriots are just not a very good football team right now and that was before the Dolphins smashed them in the mouth two weeks ago. New England is seriously doubting themselves after that game and the bye week won’t fix the fact that the offense is a joke without Tom Brady at QB. The 49ers on the other hands have played better than expected as JT O’Sullivan continues to do a nice job complementing the great running of Frank Gore. The spread on this game reflects the respect the oddsmakers have for New England but realistically the Niners should be favored by a field goal here. I will gladly take the 3.5 points based on that mistake by them and also by the fact they the Patriots are 7-10 ATS under Belichick following a loss which included 0-3 ATS after the bye. Look for the upset here. THE PICK: San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)


****STRONG OPINION****DALLAS COWBOYS (-17) VS. Cinc innati Bengals: The Cowboys will absolutely roll here after their shocking loss to the Redskins last week. They will show no mercy against a Bengals team who will once again be without QB Carson Palmer. Without Palmer the offense is awful and don’t count on Ryan Fitzpatrick being able to generate much in the passing game. Tony Romo and company will have a field day against the pathetic Bengals defense. This one should be over by the half at the latest. This pick applies only if Fitzpatrick plays. THE PICK: Dallas Cowboys (-17 if Palmer is out, otherwise its OFF)


****BEST BET****ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1) VS. Buffalo Bills: The Bills are the surprise team of the league as they come into this one at 4-0 with some impressive wins on their resume. This is a bad spot for them however as they must cross the country and take on a Cardinals team that has proven to be a very tough team to deal with at home. The Cards are ticked off after losing two straight and the defense should have an easier time with the less-expl osive Buffalo attack. Arizona is in a great spot as they apply to a 31-6 ATS bounce back angle. THE PICK: Arizona Cardinals (-1)


Teddy Covers

4* Jaguars -4
3* Broncos -3


Vegas Steam Line

New England/San Francisco OVER 41


Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report

New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: 5* New England Patriots -3

The New England Patriots make the long trip west to face the hometown San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are coming into this contest off of a SU loss although the Patriots had a bye week last week and time to think about their embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins.

The Patriots have played well of late when coming off their bye week posting a record of 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS since 2003. We also note that the Patriots under Head Coach Bill Belichick are 13-4 ATS their last 17 coming off a SU loss of 10 or more points in their last game.

The 49ers are a much improved team this season but as we all witnessed last week they are far from being an elite team. They were beaten soundly and failed to cover the number against a beat-up and injury riddled Saints squad last week.

San Francisco lacks any real threats on the outside and relies solely on the running of Frank Gore. San Francisco QB JT O’Sullivan has been sacked 19 times already this season and that will not get any better against this veteran Patriots defense. With two weeks to prepare you know Belichick has prepared his defensive unit with a solid game plan to force O’Sullivan into mistakes and/or sacks.

Word out of the Patriots camp is they have gone back to the basics and have worked extremely hard since that humiliating loss to the Dolphins to ensure they do not get embarrassed like that again. Patriot Coaches have tailored the offensive playbook more to QB Cassel’s liking and Brady has been working with the youngster to help with his preparation for this week’s game.

For the most part this is the same Patriots team with the glaring exception of Tom Brady. With the extra time to prepare it should help in that department especially for Cassel. We know the 49ers defense is suspect as they gave up 30 points to Seattle and 31 points to New Orleans and both teams were limited on offense due to a number of players being out with injuries.

On the technical front we see that Coach Belichick is 22-9 ATS in his career on the highway when coming off a SU loss including a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS his last 9. He is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by 7 or less in that situation. Belichick’s teams have faced NFC West opponents thirteen times in this situation and yes he is a perfect 13-0 ATS in that role. One more tech set tells us that San Fran when coming in off a non-division contest installed as an underdog and now facing an AFC opponent are only 1-10 ATS in that role.

The Patriots are 13-1 ATS on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game are fewer than 30. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS on the road when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The League is 46-17-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

The 49ers are 1-10 ATS after playing on the road as a dog. The 49ers are 1-12 ATS the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 0-8 ATS as a dog after playing on the road as a dog. The League is 1-17 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500. The League is 1-13-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500 after a straight up loss.

Our Situational Report tells us to Play Against teams with a Rush Rating For advantage >2, a below average Passing Game and an above average Rushing Attack, 22-3 ATS since 1994.

We have two NFL Power Systems that are active for today’s game. The first one tells us to Play On NFL road teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road loss, 27-7 ATS since 2003. The second system says to Play On NFL road teams off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, in weeks 5 through 9, 25-6 ATS last ten years.


GRADED PREDICTION: 5* New England Patriots -3


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos
Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

The Denver Broncos will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon at Mile High. Denver returns home off an embarrassing loss last week to the winless Kansas City Chiefs while the Bucs defeated Green Bay in Tampa. Both teams share a 3-1 record on the young season.

Denver has been great offensively this season; Jay Cutler has really come into his own as an NFL Quarterback. They are averaging better than 6.5 yards per play on offense this season. Their problem is their defense allows about the same yards per play and has been unable to keep the opposing teams out of the end zone.

Tampa Bay’s defense will be the strongest the Broncos have faced to this point in the season. The Buc’s “D” has some playmakers on that side of the ball and should be able to slow the Denver offense enough to give their offense a chance.

The Buc’s offensive unit with RB’s Earnest Graham who has rushed for 334 yards this season with an average of 5.9 yards per carry and Warrick Dunn who has 197 yards rushing on 4.7 yards per carry should have a big day against the Denver defense.

Last week the Buc’s rushed for 178 yards on 4.3 yards per carry. The Denver defense allowed KC to rush for 213 yards on 6.5 yards per carry. This is not a good match up for the Broncos to try and get last weeks loss off their minds. They will be facing the better defensive unit and a team that can rush the football.

Our Situational Report shows the Broncos in a negative situation that tells us to Play Against teams with a SU Win% that is >than last season’s SU Win% and a Pass Offense Rating Advantage >1 with a gross PYF>44 and rushing yards against-for were >75 in their last game. This situations record is 34-3 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 2-0 ATS this year.

The Buccaneers are 10-1-1 ATS versus any team with the same record after playing at home. The League is 23-5-2 ATS within 3 of pick when on a 3 game SU and ATS winning streak. The League is 41-17-2 ATS on the road versus any team with the same record after a straight up win. The League is 7-0 ATS within 3 of pick the week after a win when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they were behind by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter.

The Broncos are 8-24 ATS as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Broncos are 4-17-3 ATS as a favorite versus any team with the same record. The Broncos are 2-12-3 ATS as a favorite versus any team with the same record. after a straight up loss. The League is 0-10-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home versus any team with the same record after a straight up loss on the road.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that tells us to Play Against NFL teams with a defense that is allowing 24 or more points per game, after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored, 99-56 ATS the last ten years.


GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3


Kelso

50 units Arizona Cardinals

Chairman's

15 units Jacksonville -5.5

Best Bets

3 units TB/Denver UNDER 47 points

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Ethan Law

2% Denver -3
2% Arizona -1


Brandon Lang

20 Dime - Jaguars

FREE - Cardinals and Steelers/Jags OVER


EZ WINNERS

3* Arizona -1.5


Root

No Limit - Ariz


D Malinsky

6* Jax
4*NE
4*TB/Den under


Sixth Sense

3% SAN FRANCISCO +3
3% MINNESOTA +3


ASA

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1) over Buffalo Bills
ASA 5-Star @ Arizona Cardinals (-1)

PLAY THIS GAME BEFORE THE LINE MOVES! The Cards were embarrassed last week at New York allowing the Jets to put up an incredible 56 points. It was a tough spot for Arizona as they were on the east coast for the second straight week after playing at Washington the previous Sunday. Turnovers were the key culprit on Sunday as Arizona coughed it up SEVEN times. Those seven turnovers led to 34 POINTS for the Jets. Believe it or not the stats were actually quite one sided in favor of the losing team. Arizona had 10 more first downs and almost 100 more total yards. However, you have absolutely no chance to win in the NFL if you give the ball away that many times. Expect the Redbirds to clean that up this weekend at home. The Bills are the “surprise” of the league with a record of 4-0. However, they have to show us a bit more before we jump on the bandwagon. We give them credit for winning all of their games to date, however their schedule has been less than daunting, especially the last two weeks. Two weeks ago the Bills came from behind to beat the 1-3 Raiders 24-23. Buffalo was down by 9-points with under seven minutes to go in the game and they were able to hit a field goal at the buzzer to win. Last Sunday they played the now 0-4 Rams and were behind in the second half. The Bills finally grabbed a 20-14 lead early in the fourth quarter but it took a 33-yard interception return for a TD to do it. The terrible St. Louis offense, 30th in total yards per game, actually had 103 more yards in the contest. Therefore, in the last two weeks, the now all of the sudden mighty Bills, have had to make second half rallies against two teams that are now a combined 1-7. We’re not quite sold on Buffalo. Now Buffalo is on the road again this week and must travel across the country to an angry Arizona team. That’s not a great mix for Buffalo success this weekend. This team has historically struggled on the road (just 14-30 SU since November of 2002), and with such a short number on the Cards here, we’ll grab the home favorite.


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
ASA 3-Star #430 @ Jacksonville (-4.5)

These two teams look like M.A.S.H units as both have suffered from multiple major injuries. The big difference is that the Jaguars have had time to adjust to their injuries as they came early on while Pittsburgh continues to get dinged up every weekend. Last Monday night the Steelers lost backup running back Mendenhall who was filling in for Willie Parker, they then lost Mendenhall’s backup Davis which forced them to go out and sign Najeh Davenport who they recently released. Getting the start this week will be Mewelde Moore their 3rd string tailback who had just 13 yards last week on 8 carries versus the Ravens. The biggest loss in my opinion though is Pro Bowl guard Kendall Simmons. Simmons injured his ankle last week and is now on the IR. The Steelers offensive line has been a sieve in passing situations this season as they have allowed 15 sacks which is second most in the NFL. The beating Ben Roethlisberger has endured is starting to take its toll. Big Ben has a bad shoulder right now and is listed as questionable for this game which would mean ex-Jag Leftwich would get the start. The Steelers offense has struggled this season and currently rank 29th in the league in total ‘O’ and 24th in points scored per game. Now without a running game, their best lineman and a less than 100% QB we can’t see them competing in this game. Defensively the Steelers aren’t much better off as they are without Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton and Nick Eason which also leaves their D-line very thin. The Jaguars will exploit this weakness with their potent two-headed rushing attack with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew. Last season the Jags were 2nd in the NFL in rushing averaging 149.2 yards per game on 4.57 yards per carry. This season the Jags are currently 12th in the league in rushing at 126 ypg and they’ll get the ground game going Sunday night at home versus the Steelers. Jacksonville QB David Garrard has found a rhythm after the first two losses of the season by engineering a game-winning drive over the Colts in Indianapolis two weeks ago and then leading the Jags to an overtime victory last weekend over the Texans. The Jaguars have won 18 of their last 24 home games and four straight in this series going back to 2005. The home team has been a moneymaking 15-5 ATS the last 20 meetings and we feel that trend continues here.


Dataman

20* Patriots


Sports Authority

Reg Patriots


Sports Bank

400% Broncos


Alatex

Super Play Cardinals


Seabass

50 Cincy over
100 Tampa over
300 Arizona


Heisman Club

10* Tampa Bay


Vegas Runner


DAL -16.0 vs CIN  2* WAGER

SFX 3.5 (-120) vs  NE 2* WAGER
(Buy the 1/2 Pt to +3.5...Patriots are -3 and -125 at most shops so it should cost you less than usual)


BUF 2.0 (-110) vs ARI  NFL 3* GAME of the WEEK

PLEASE WAIT TO MAKE THIS BET BECAUSE WE ARE HOPING ARZ GETS to -2.5 SO WE CAN BUY IT TO +3...Like Wisconsin Last Night...VR

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Charlies

10* San Francisco


PPP

3% Cardinals


Winners Path

Broncos
Patriots


Dave Cokin

3* Broncos
Hat Cowboys
Window Jags


Jim Feist

Personal Best Cardinals


Scott Spreitzer

5* Patriots
TKO Bengals


Fairway Jay

15* Big Drive Cardinals

10*
Patriots
Jags


LT Profits


3 units 49ers
2 units Bills


Donnie Black

20* Cardinals


Las Vegas Sports

Cardinals


Wolkosky Milan

10* CINCINNATI BENGALS +17
10* ARIZONA CARDINALS -1


Frank Patron

Den -3


Bob Balfe

Arizona -1 over Buffalo
The Cardinals will be without their best receiver today and the Bills are 4-0. So does it make sense that Arizona is favored against the best team record wise in the NFL? I do give this team credit, but in the last two weeks they had to battle back hard to beat the two worst teams in the NFL. Buffalo will be without their top cornerback and possible Marcus Stroud. The Cardinals should play good home defense and score enough points in their system to win this game. Take Arizona.

Jaguars -4 over Steelers
Pittsburgh looked awful last Monday on offense until very late in the game. The Steelers also allowed a rookie QB drive all the way down the field to tie the game up in the closing minutes. This would never happen in past years. The Steelers have no running game as all their backs are hurt. Jacksonville has two strong backs that will have a field day against a Steelers front three missing two of their starters. Big Ben is still hurting and I just don't see how the Steelers keep up on the road. Take the Jaguars.


Larry Ness

AFC/NFC Game of the Year 20* NE Patriots.

The Pats and 49ers meet in San Francisco on Sunday but it will not be a Tom Brady vs Alex Smith (former No. 1 overall pick) showdown at QB. Rather it's Matt Cassell for the Pats and JT O'Sullivan for the 49ers. Cassell made his first start since high school in New England's Week 2 win at the NY Jets and O'Sullivan will be making his fifth consecutive NFL start, after spending the majority of his six-year NFL career as a journeyman taxi-squadder. The 49ers are 2-2 in the weak NFC West, which is good enough for a first-place tie with Arizona. However, let's note that San Fran's four games have come against opponents with a combined 5-9 record in '08. The 49ers' offense is a "work in progress" under first-year OC Mike Martz and the inexperienced O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan's completed 61.3 percent so far, averaging 240.5 YPG with four TDs and three INTs. RB Frank Gore is off to a very good start with 369 YR (4.9 per) and 15 catches but the OL has allowed an NFL-high 19 sacks and the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. Veteran Bruce had four catches for 153 yards vs Seattle but in his other three games, has totaled just seven catches for 73 yards. Neither Battle nor Bryant Johnson are proven WRs, while highly-touted TE Davis has just two catches in his last three games. As for the 'D,' the 49ers have allowed 30 points to Seattle and 31 to New Orleans, two teams with banged-up OLs and all sorts of injuries to their WRs. The Pats saw their 21-game regular season winning streak end in Week 3, as the Dolphins came into Foxboro and won, 38-13. Chad Pennington completed 17-of-20 passes in that game plus the Dolphins ran for 216 yards. Ronnie Brown had 113 yards (6.6 per) and Ricky Williams had 98 (6.1). Brown ran for four TDs plus threw a TD pass. After allowing 14 FD and 284 yards in Week 1 and 12 FDs and 256 yards in Week 2, the New England defense a allowed 461 yards vs the Dolphins. With a bye last week, you can expect the New England defense to rebound with a prideful effort here. Cassel has just one TD pass in his two starts and Moss just six catches for 47 yards in those two contests. However, with Welker, Gaffney and TE Watson joining Moss, the Pats own an effective pass-catching group. RB Maroney's shoulder is better (he's listed as probable) plus in LaMont Jordan, Sammy Morris and the do-everything Kevin Faulk, the Pats have more than enough options to get back on track offensively. New England's home loss to Miami was the club's worst loss ever in the seven-year history of Gillette Stadium but the Pats will take an 11-game regular season road winning streak into this game (8-3 ATS). New England isn't the team it was at this time last year but it's still infinitely more talented than San Francisco (entered this season with a 25-55 mark the previous five seasons). Belichick will present O'Sullivan with some coverages he hasn't seen and San Fran's OL hasn't been able to keep him safe so far. San Fran's high-risk, high-reward offense is in trouble vs the Pats in this one.


Las Vegas Insider Arz Cardinals.

The Cards last made the NFL playoffs in 1998 and the Bills last qualified for the NFL's postseason in 1999. Arizona's nine-year postseason drought is the longest active one in the NFL, while Buffalo's streak of eight consecutive playoff-less years ranks tied for second-most with the Lions. So what do we have here? The Cards are just 2-2 but find themselves in a tie for first in the very weak NFC West (with the 49ers, of all teams), while the 4-0 Bills are one of just THREE unbeatens in all of the NFL (Titans are also 4-0 and the Giants are 3-0). Are the Bills really this good? I don't think so, at all. They opened with an easy win in Week 1 against a Seattle team devastated with injuries and one which never has traveled with much success in the Eastern time zone. In Week 2, the Bills won at 20-16 Jacksonville, a team with a weak set of WRs and a depleted OL, after trailing 16-10 with under 4 1/2 minutes left in the game. Buffalo then needed another late rally (trailed the dysfunctional Raiders 23-14 with less than 4 1/2 minutes left at home) to edge Oakland 24-23. Last week in St Louis, the Bills found themselves down 14-6 at half vs the Rams, getting outgained 210-96 yards in yards. However, the Rams just could be the NFL's worst team and Buffalo scored the game's final 25 points for a 31-14 (and cover). The point I'm making is that the Bills have really had an easy 'go' of it, as only Jacksonville (now 2-2 after an 0-2 start) looks like a quality team among their first four opponents. The Cards have to be glad to be back in the desert, after a two-week stay on the East Coast resulted in a 24-17 loss to the Redskins and an embarrassing 56-28 loss to the Jets. Arizona lost more than a game against the Jets, as Anquan Boldin almost had his head removed by two Jet defenders and will almost surely miss this game. However, early reports are that he won't be out for long, which is good news for Arizona's chances to break its playoff drought this year (I called for that to happen in the preseason). Even without Boldin (19 catches and five TDs the last three games), I expect Arizona to win here and the pointsprad is such that a win almost guarantees a cover. Warner has been very good this year at QB (1,222 yards / 66.7 percent / 8 TDs and 4 INTs) and while Arizona's running game may NEVER "come around," the Cards know the importance of this game. With Seattle struggling this year, the Cards can win this division. They've opened with three road games in their first four and next week they get the Cowboys at home. A bye follows and then its another stretch of three road games in four weeks. Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a non-division home favorite (opening number) and while the Cards could move to being a small home dog in this one because of the Boldin injury, the Bills are 'ripe for the plucking' in this one.


Weekend Wipeout Winner (3-0 in NFL '08 by combined scores of 92-33)

My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Den Broncos at 4:05 ET. Both the Bucs and Broncos enter this game 3-1. The Bucs lost their first game of '08 but have since won three in a row under the leadership of Brian Griese. The Broncos won their first three but then lost last week in KC, as the Chiefs ended their 12-game losing streak. Griese has been quite a story but one wonders how much longer the Bucs can overcome his mistakes. Griese was steady in his first start of '08 against Atlanta but in each of the last two weeks, he's thrown three INTs in each game. He did throw for 407 yards (67 attempts!) at Chicago but last week vs Green Bay, he was just 15-of-30 for 149 yards. The Broncos have few problems scoring this year but the team's defense ranks 30th in YPG allowed (408.8) and 29th in PPG (29.3). The pass 'D' has been terrible (276 YPG allowed with seven TDs and only one INT) and hasn't been helped by a pass rush which has accounted for only six sacks. Griese beat the Bears at Chicago in Week 3 (played for the Bears in '06 and '07) and will have similar motivation here in Denver, having begun his career with the Broncos (from 1998 through 2002 while starting 51 games). Griese's been operating without Tampa's best WR in Galloway and he's been ruled out of this game as well (foot). Antonio Bryant and Ike Hilliard have filled in well but Galloway's a huge loss, especially when trying to trade points with Denver. The Broncos own the NFL's top offense (435.5 YPG) and rank second in scoring (33.3 PPG). QB Cutler is over his health concerns of last year for Denver and enters this game with a completion percentage of 65.9, while averaging 318.8 YPG with nine TDs and just two INTs (98.6 QB rating). WRs Marshall has 31 catches in just three games and rookie Eddie Royal has 27 catches after four games. Denver's running game is not as prolific as in years past (121.3 YPG ranks 14th) but before the team lost four turnovers last week at KC, the Broncos had scored 41, 39 and 34 points in their first three games. The Buccaneers defense has been known for its "cover-2" scheme and making big plays. That has been the case in the early going this year, as the Bucs have 11 sacks and have forced nine turnovers during their 3-1 start. However, I just love the way Cutler is playing. The Broncos have averaged 34.0 PPG over their last five home games, while the Bucs are living very dangerously these days with Brian Griese's back-to-back three-interception games. Griese will want to perform well back in Denver but the Bucs are just 2-9 SU in non-division road games since the beginning of the '06 season. This pointspread has really come down and the Broncos double-digit win will result in an ATS romp. Weekend Wipeout Winner Den Broncos.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

KB Hoops

5* Arizona -1


DOC'S

CARDINALS
SAINTS


Executive

300% San Fran

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Yankee Capper

3 Units - Phillies/Brewers Over 9

3 Units - Ottawa Senators

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

NHL 1* (Regular Play) Ottawa Senators Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh @ 2:30 PM ET

I have pasted in my write-up from yesterday below. The reason of this is because this is the same match-up, same place. The only difference today is that the Penguins are considered the home teams so they do get the last line change. However, I watched this game yesterday and it was simply unfortunate that the Senators blew a 3-2 third period and then lost in OT on a turnover. The Sens actually were very impressive on the penalty kill and, overall, Martin Gerber looked pretty comfortable between the pipes. With Ray Emery now out of the NHL, look for Gerber to have a big season. The Senators played well in most aspects of their game yesterday and they got done in by a key turnover in the overtime, plus a rare, fluke goal from a Pens defenseman yesterday. The Senators will bounce back today to earn the split after blowing yesterday’s game late!

Keys to this game include: 1) The Senators have big-time revenge on their minds after getting swept out of the playoffs by the Penguins last season. Pittsburgh outscored them 16-5 in that series; 2) The Senators improved in the offseason. There is a new attitude on this team with a new coach, Craig Hartsburg, and the addition of grizzled veterans Jarkko Ruutu (a former Penguin) and Jason Smith (he was Philadelphia’s captain). The move of Daniel Alfredsson to the second line will also help give the Senators offense more balance; 3) The Senators should enjoy success against a Penguins defense suffering with some significant injury issues. Two of their top four defensemen are out for this game. Sergei Gonchar is one of the top power play “quarterbacks” in the league and he’s out for a long time after shoulder surgery. Ryan Whitney has a bright future as one of the most talented up and coming two way defenseman in the league but he’s still out after having left foot surgery in the off-season; 4) The Penguins did have their roster raided in the off-season. They lost Ruutu (as noted above) plus Marian Hossa (big loss for Sidney Crosby), as well as Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Georges Laraque, and Adam Hall. Included in that group is some tough hard-nosed players and this really hurts the make-up of this team entering the season; 5) The Penguins were only 11-11-2 in the first two months of the season last year. The Senators raced out of the gate last season with a 9-1 October. This shows that Ottawa certainly has the capability to get off to a strong start and, the fact that they finished last season so poorly, absolutely insures that the Sens are fully focused entering the new season. They want this first game badly and are much hungrier in terms of comparing the state of minds of these two teams entering their season opener in Stockholm, Sweden. By the way, even though these first two games for these teams are being played overseas Ottawa is the home team for this first game and that gives them the edge on line changes! Play Ottawa on the money line as a regular selection.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
206865 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays

Late Kicks:

Northcoast:  3.5* Ariz, 3* New England

Probability:  3* Denver, 3* New England

Doc's: 3* Ariz

Goldsheet: 1* Ariz

Blazer: 3* Denver

glcsports
useravatar
Offline
302 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44216
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
274372
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.8
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3445
Newest User:
Laurrie Branum
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
1939

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com