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Sunday Premium Service Plays
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they are 18-4 on the season!
BEST BETS YTD 18-4 +40.80% 3% BALTIMORE +3
3% MIAMI +6.5
3% PHILADELPHIA –6
3% ATLANTA NL
3% SAN FRANCISCO +3
3% MINNESOTA +3
3% INDY/HOUSTON OVER 47
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
they are 18-4 on the season!
BEST BETS YTD 18-4 +40.80% 3% BALTIMORE +3
3% MIAMI +6.5
3% PHILADELPHIA –6
3% ATLANTA NL
3% SAN FRANCISCO +3
3% MINNESOTA +3
3% INDY/HOUSTON OVER 47
Indianapolis –3 HOUSTON 47
Indy was off last week and should be healthier on the line of scrimmage with the added rest. Indy lost the week before the bye to Jacksonville but out gained them in that game, 6.6yppl to 5.8yppl. Houston loss a tough game at Jacksonville last week but played Jacksonville tough, getting out gained 6.5yppl to 6.1yppl. They passed for 7.7yps but did allow 7.2yps and 5.6ypr. Indy has been average on offense, averaging 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl. Those numbers should get better with a healthier offense. They allow 5.3yppl against 4.9yppl and I would expect those numbers to continue to be poor without Bob Sanders. Houston has been pretty good on offense, averaging 4.2ypr against 3.6ypr, 5.4yps against 5.2yps and 5.0yppl against 4.6yppl overall. Their defense has been poor as well, allowing 4.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.9yps against 5.7yps and 5.7yppl against 4.8yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Indy by 3.5 points and predict about 56 points. These teams have combined to score at least 48 points in each of the last six match ups and at least 51 points in the last three here in Houston. With both teams struggling on defense I see more of the same. This is Houston’s first home game of the season. INDIANAPOLIS 30 HOUSTON 27
Tennessee –3 BALTIMORE 33.5
Tennessee won again last week in pretty easy fashion against Minnesota, 30-17. They were out gained by Minnesota, 4.9yppl to 4.0yppl, including gaining just 2.2ypr while allowing Minnesota to average 4.0ypr. Four Minnesota turnovers to just one for Tennessee was the difference in the game and the Titans scored 24 of their 30 points on drives of 33 yards or less. Baltimore lost at Pittsburgh but played respectable in that loss. They were out gained in the game 4.3yppl to 3.5yppl and only averaged 3.9yps. Tennessee has been below average on offense, averaging just 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense has been very good, allowing just 4.2yppl against 4.7yppl. Baltimore has also struggled on offense, gaining just 4.2yppl against 4.7yppl. The defense, much like Tennessee, has been good, allowing 3.5yppl against 4.1yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a letdown situation this week, which is 75-32-7 and plays against them here. The Ravens also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 62-20-3. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 43 points, which is much higher than the 33.5 total. Pretty hard to go over in this game, knowing the strength of the defenses. This game comes down to whose offense can move the ball and stay away from turning the ball over. Value and solid situations favoring the Ravens make it worth taking a shot. BALTIMORE 23 TENNESSEE 20
San Diego –6.5 MIAMI 44.5
The Chargers needed to come from behind to win their game last week and then scored a late td while trying to run out the clock to make the final score look worse than it was. They out gained the Raiders just 5.0yppl to 4.9yppl, including allowing a previously poor Raiders passing game to throw for 5.8yps. The Raiders came into that game averaging just 5.3yps. Miami was on a bye following their shocking upset over New England the week before, where they completely dominated NE 6.0ypr to 4.0ypr, 11.7yps to 3.5yps and 8.1yppl to 3.7yppl. SD continues to throw the ball well, averaging 8.5yps against 6.5yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. They allow 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl. Miami averages 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr and just 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They are allowing just 3.3ypr against 3.6ypr but 7.4yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 644-521-42, including a subset, which is 516-396-30. They also qualify in another rushing situation, which is 277-190-20. Numbers only make SD a 1.5 point favorite and predict about 48 points. SD is the better team in this game but this is a lot of points for a team facing a team that has had two weeks to get ready, while SD was on the road last week and now has to travel far this week. Value and situations make it worth a shot with the home dog. MIAMI 24 SAN DIEGO 23
CAROLINA –9.5 Kansas City 38
KC rolled over Denver last week, 33-19. They were out gained 6.2yppl to 6.0yppl but that is a little deceiving seeing those numbers include about 22 more passing attempts from Denver to skew the numbers. KC did rush for 6.5ypr against just 4.3ypr for Denver. Carolina rolled over Atlanta last week, 24-9, averaging 6.5yppl to just 4.1yppl for Atlanta. They allowed Atlanta 5.1ypr but held a poor Falcons passing game to just 3.5yps, while throwing for 10.1yps themselves. KC has been putrid throwing the ball this year, gaining just 4.1yps against 6.7yps. They passed for 5.4yps last week and the numbers should be closer to that going forward as long as Damon Huard continues to start. The KC defense has been bad this year, allowing 5.3ypr against 4.8ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl. Carolina has thrown the ball well this year, averaging 6.2yps against 5.8yps but just 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl overall because the running game hasn’t been that good – 3.6ypr against 3.9ypr and they run the ball a lot. The defense has been solid, allowing just 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Carolina by seven points and predict about 28 points, making the total intriguing. The poor KC defense is enough to keep me off the under. Carolina also a poor favorite with John Fox so I will lean towards the numbers in a weak lean. CAROLINA 17 KANSAS CITY 10
PHILADELPHIA –6 Washington 42.5
Washington was very impressive last week at Dallas in their 26-24 win. They were out gained 5.9yppl to 5.4yppl but those numbers are deceiving because Dallas threw all but 11 times in the game, which skews the numbers. The Redskins did average 6.7yps to just 6.4yps for Dallas. Philly went to Chicago and lost the game but won the game at the line of scrimmage. They out gained Chicago 5.1yppl to 4.0yppl, including out rushing them 4.5ypr to 3.0ypr and out passing them 5.4yps to 4.7yps. Brian Westbrook looks like he has a shot to return this week. Washington averages 6.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl overall to make them pretty average on offense. They allow just 5.9yps against 7.8yps and 5.3yppl against 6.3yppl overall. Philly averages 6.7yps against 5.8yps and 5.5yppl against 5.0yppl overall. They are also playing good defense, allowing just 2.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. Philly qualifies in my turnover table, which is 379-238-18. Numbers favor Philly by seven points and predict about 38 points. Washington has had their share of success here but for whatever it is worth, Philly has won by double digits here every other year for the past six years and this year is the year again. I don’t put any stock in that but the value is on their side as well as the situations. PHILADELPHIA 27 WASHINGTON 13
Chicago –3.5 DETROIT 44.5
The Bears won for me last week against Philly, although they were out gained in the game 5.1yppl to 4.0yppl, including being out rushed 4.5ypr to 3.0ypr. Detroit is off their bye and firing of Matt Millen. They were crushed the week before at San Francisco, 31-13 and were out gained in the game, 7.8yps to 3.5yps and 5.9yppl to 4.4yppl. Chicago averages 4.7yppl against 4.8yppl, making them very average on offense. They allow just 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. Detroit is averaging just 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl and their defense has been horrendous. They allow 5.6ypr against 4.8ypr, 8.7yps against 6.3yps and 6.9yppl against 5.6yppl. Numbers favor Chicago by nine points and predict about 57 points. Those numbers assume Detroit will continue to play terrible defense. While the defense will probably be bad all year, they can’t continue to play this poorly all season long. Detroit qualifies in three solid situations but the Bears also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation. With situations going both ways, but favoring Detroit, and the line value greatly favoring Chicago, it’s a good game for me to pass on. These two have played pretty high scoring games here the last two years although I believe this game was fairly low scoring last year until the fourth quarter. CHICAGO 30 DETROIT 24
GREEN BAY -4 Atlanta 40.5
No line currently on this game but I found this line posted for the Hilton in Las Vegas. Not sure if it is current and it’s hard to tell what will end up posted seeing the status of Aaron Rodgers is in doubt. I don’t think he will play but only time will tell. The Packers were beaten up pretty badly last week, getting out gained 4.6yppl to 3.4yppl, 4.3ypr to 1.6ypr and out passed 5.0yps to 4.4yps. Atlanta was beat up pretty bad at Carolina, 6.5yppl to 4.1yppl. They did rush for 5.1ypr but passed for only 3.5yps. The passing game has been pretty poor for them all year. Atlanta averages 5.6ypr against 4.7ypr but is throwing for just 5.6yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. The defense hasn’t been good either, allowing 5.9yps against 5.2yps and 5.3yppl against 4.9yppl overall. For Green Bay, the offense has been average, gaining 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl but that will change if Rodgers can’t go. Matt Flynn should be better this week with a full week to prepare but I believe he will struggle. The defense allows just 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl, thanks to a good pass defense, allowing just 5.4yps against 5.9yps. The rush defense is allowing 5.2ypr against 4.8ypr and will have their hands full against a good Atlanta rush offense. If this line is greater than six points, Atlanta would qualify in a 51-21-1 general situation. The Packers poor defensive play last week puts them in a negative 76-28-2. Atlanta also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 644-521-42, including a subset, which is 516-396-30. GB, meanwhile, qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 109-46-8. Numbers favor GB by just 2.5 points and predict about 48 points. Packers may be without Rodgers and lost Cullen Jenkins off the defensive line for the rest of the season. They lost Al Harris at cornerback the week before. The defense is getting a little thin and was having problems stopping the run anyway. Too many solid situations and value with Atlanta in this game. ATLANTA 27 GREEN BAY 21
NY GIANTS –7 Seattle 43.5
Both teams come off a bye week. Seattle beat up a bad Rams team, out rushing them 5.3ypr to 2.7ypr, out passing them 7.7yps to 5.5yps and 6.1yppl to 4.3yppl overall. The Giants struggled to get by Cincinnati but out gained the Bengal’s 6.0yppl to 4.8yppl. They out rushed them 4.7ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed them 6.7yps to 5.4yps. Seattle has been decimated this year at the receiver position but they get much healthier this week for the first time this year. The Giants will be without Burress, who is suspended for one game. Seattle averages 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr but just 4.9yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Those passing numbers should start to get better with the receivers making their way back. On defense Seattle allows 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. The Giants average 5.4ypr against 4.5ypr and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense is allowing 4.3yppl against 4.6yppl. Numbers favor the Giants by 11.5 points and predict about 52 points. I don’t have any situations on this game so I will lean with the ratings, which should probably be downgraded a little seeing Seattle is getting a little healthier this week. NY GIANTS 31 SEATTLE 21
DENVER –3 Tampa Bay 47.5
TB looked good last week against GB out gaining the Packers 4.6yppl to 3.4yppl, including out rushing them 4.3ypr to 1.6ypr. Denver lost badly at KC, out gaining the Chiefs 6.2yppl to 6.0yppl but those numbers are deceiving because Denver threw the ball 22 more times to inflate those numbers. What isn’t deceiving is KC ran for 213 yards at 6.5ypr. TB averages 5.0ypr against 4.7ypr but just 5.3yps against 5.7yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. That makes them an average offense. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.1yps against 6.6yps and 5.0yppl against 5.6yppl. Denver passing game has been excellent this year, gaining 7.9yps against 6.3yps and 6.6yppl against 5.7yppl. The defense, however, has been terrible. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 8.0yps against 6.7yps and 6.7yppl against 5.6yppl overall. I have situations going both ways for this game. Numbers favor Denver by three points and predict 53 points. I’ll call it on the number and let any line movement determine my position. DENVER 27 TAMPA BAY 24
New England –3 SAN FRANCISCO 41
When we last saw NE they were being destroyed by Miami, 38-13. They were out rushed 6.0ypr to 4.0ypr, out passed 11.7yps to 3.5yps and out gained overall 8.1yppl to 3.7yppl. SF struggled last week at NO, losing 31-17 and getting out gained 7.0yppl to 5.1yppl. They out rushed NO 4.8ypr to 3.3ypr but were out passed 10.4yps to 5.3yps. I don’t see NE as the same passing threat that NO was. The Patriots are off a bye so they should be prepared but they are going on the road to face a team pretty good team at home these days. The NE passing game averages just 5.3yps against 6.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.6yppl overall. Those aren’t good offensive numbers. And, they are allowing a whopping 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.9yps against 5.5yps and 6.0yppl against 5.0yppl overall. SF averages just 5.8yppl against 5.8yppl so they are just average but still significantly better than NE. They allow just 6.0yps against 6.8yps even after last week and 5.1yppl against 5.6yppl. SF qualifies in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 123-60-5, 88-47-6, 644-521-42 and 143-78-8. Numbers favor SF by 9.5 points and predict just 27 points. NE defeated KC in week one but struggled badly to do so. They went to the Jets in week two and won but were out played in that game and got scores in short yardage situations. They haven’t played tough teams this year and have struggled badly in those games. Way too much going SF’s way in this game. SAN FRANCISCO 21 NEW ENGLAND 13
ARIZONA –1 Buffalo 44.5
Arizona ran into one of those games last week where they couldn’t do anything right. They out gained the Jets 6.1yppl to 6.0yppl although they passed the ball 28 more times so those numbers are deceiving. A minus 6 in turnovers didn’t help Arizona and they allowed the Jets to average 7.9yps. Buffalo got down early at St. Louis but managed to come back and win easily 31-14. They were out gained 5.9yppl to 4.6yppl, including being out rushed 5.8ypr to 3.6ypr. Buffalo averages just 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl overall. They allow just 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl. Arizona struggles running the ball as well, gaining just 3.2ypr against 3.7ypr but are averaging 7.5yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Arizona allows just 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl overall. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Numbers favor Buffalo by four points and predict 45 points. I will lean Arizona’s way. They are the better team from the line of scrimmage and are home after two straight road games and three of four on the road while Buffalo travels for the second straight week. ARIZONA 24 BUFFALO 21
DALLAS –16.5 Cincinnati 44.5
Dallas was beaten by a good Washington team last week although they out gained Washington 5.9yppl to 5.4yppl. Those numbers are a little deceiving seeing Dallas threw the ball all but 11 times. They were out rushed 4.4ypr to 4.0ypr. Cincinnati lost at home to Cleveland and were out gained 4.0yppl to 3.9yppl. They were out passed 5.1yps to 3.7yps but should get back Carson Palmer this week. Cincinnati averages just 4.0yppl against 4.4yppl and allows 4.9yppl against 4.7yppl. Dallas is averaging 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 8.2yps against 5.8yps and 6.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 15 points and predict about 52 points. I’ll lean slightly to the underdog here. DALLAS 33 CINCINNATI 20
JACKSONVILLE –4 Pittsburgh 36.5
Tough game to call because both teams are decimated by injuries. Pittsburgh is still without Willie Parker and it appears Roethlisberger will probably miss this game. They have already lost a couple of key bodies on the defensive line. Jacksonville has just about lost their whole offensive line this year although they moved the ball well last week against a poor Houston defense. Jacksonville averages 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl but is allowing 4.1ypr against 3.8ypr, 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.4yppl against 4.8yppl but playing good defense allowing just 2.9ypr against 3.8ypr, 4.4yps against 5.3yps and 3.8yppl against 4.6yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by four points and predict about 34 points. I’ll lean slightly with the better defense and the value. PITTSBURGH 20 JACKSONVILLE 17
NEW ORLEANS –3 Minnesota 46.5
The Vikings were beaten pretty handily last week at Tennessee but out gained Tennessee 4.9yppl to 4.0yppl and committed three more turnovers than Tennessee. The Titans scored 24 of their 30 points on short drives of 33 yards or less. NO defeated San Francisco easily last week and out gained the 49ers 7.0yppl to 5.1yppl, including throwing for 10.4yps but allowing SF to rush for 4.8ypr. Minnesota averages 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl and allows 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. The Saints average just 3.4ypr against 4.2ypr but 8.6yps against 6.5yps for a total of 6.5yps against 5.5yps. They allow 5.2ypr against 4.7ypr and 5.9yppl against 5.7yppl overall. The Saints qualify in a home momentum situation if they are favored by three or less, which is 80-34-6. Minnesota qualifies in my turnover table, which is 379-238-18. They also qualify in a game five situation, which is 42-9-3. The Vikings also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 644-521-42, including a subset, which is 516-396-30. NO qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 109-46-8 and plays against NO here. Numbers favor NO by six points before accounting for the situations and predict about 44 points. I’ll take a shot with the Vikings. NO throws the ball well and, although Minnesota’s numbers are above average against the pass, they tend to struggle against the pass but I’m looking for their running game to control the game enough. The Vikings should be able to move the ball on the ground against a porous Saints defense. MINNESOTA 24 NEW ORLEANS 20
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
ATS Lock Club
6 units on the Indianapolis Colts (-3) over the Houston Texans, 1:00
5 units on the Baltimore Ravens (+2 1/2) over the Tennessee Titans, 1:00
5 units on the Seattle Seahawks (+7) over the New York Giants, 1:00
4 units on the San Francisco 49'ers (+3 1/2) over the New England Patriots, 4:00
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
Dr Bob Update
I’ll take Atlanta in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more with Rodgers playing (since he’s likely to be less than 100% and my not finish the game) and for 2-Stars at +3 or more if Rodgers does not start. I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion from +3 to +5 1/2 with Rodgers starting and at +1 to +2½ if he is not.
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
HOUSTON TEXANS(+3) over Indianapolis Colts
ASA 3-Star #406 @ Houston (+3)
Nearly 80% of the people wagering at the off shores are on Houston here. The line, however has not budged off 3. We’ll almost always side with the “other” team and this situation and we will again. We like Houston here. For whatever reason, it seems as if everyone is still enamored with the Colts. Until we see it on the field in 2008, we’re not going to fall for the Indy hoopla. This team is just 1-2 and their only win was a come from behind situation @ Minnesota. The Vikes led 15-0 with under 2:00 minutes left in the third quarter. Minny blew a number of chances to get into the end zone and kicked 5 field goals. Anyone with a semblance of a balanced offense would have gone on to win that game at home. Indy is REALLY lucky they are not sitting at 0-3. Peyton Manning is simply not in synch to start the season hitting “just” 59% of his passes and throwing 4 picks compared to just 3 TD’s. The offense is averaging only 313 yards and 17 PPG. That’s way down from last year when they put up 358 total yards and 28 PPG. The Colt defense can’t stop anyone from running right through them. Chicago put up 183 yards on the ground vs. Indy. Minnesota rolled for 180. The Jags acted as if the Colt defense wasn’t on the field putting up 263 yards rushing. Indy has now been out gained by a total of 407 yards on the ground in their three games. Their strong safety Bob Sanders is the key to stopping their opponents running game and he remains out. The Texans FINALLY get to play a home game. Because of Hurricane Ike a few weeks ago, this team is 0-3 but they have played the toughest schedule in the NFL to date. Not only have all three games been on the road, but all three have been against top notch opponents. Houston’s losses have come @ Pittsburgh, @ Tennessee and @ Jacksonville. We sided with them last week as 7-point dogs @ Jacksonville. The Texans deserved better as they lost by 3 in OT but out played the Jags for much of the game. One of the Jax TD’s came on a 41-yard fake punt. QB Matt Schaub looked really good completing 29 of his 40 attempts with 3 TD’s and no turnovers. Rookie RB Steve Slaton performed well both running and receiving and now the Texans get Ahman Green back to help take advantage of a poor Indy run defense. The overall offensive and defensive numbers are nearly identical for these two teams and Houston has played the much tougher schedule. The Texans were a decent team last year at 8-8 and they need this win very badly after starting the year 0-3. We’ll call for Houston to win this game outright.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-6.5) over Washington Redskins
ASA 3-Star #414 @ Philadelphia (-6.5)
Handicapping is as much about picking "spots" as it is anything else. Last week, we grabbed Washington +11 in a great spot to give Dallas a run for their money. They did just that and won the game outright by 2 points. The Cowboys were off two HUGE prime time games beating both the Eagles and the Packers on back to back weeks. A letdown had to be in order and was quite obvious as Washington dominated. The Skins match up very well with the Boys and have now beaten them 3 of the last 4 meetings. In fact, with Tony Romo at QB, the Cowboys are 1-3 against the Skins and 22-6 against everyone else. That was a great "spot" to take Washington. Now the reverse is true. This game @ Philly becomes a great "spot" to play against the Skins and ON the Eagles. Washington is now on the road for the second straight week off a huge upset win. Philly, on the other hand, was beaten on Sunday night in Chicago 24-20. The Eagles were held at the Chicago 1-yard line late in the game part in fact because RB Brian Westbrook was injured and didn't play. He's expected back here given the Eagles their most important weapon. The Chicago trip was a bad "spot" for Philly as they were off huge games vs. Dallas and Pittsburgh. Now at 2-2, the Eagles are calling this a must-win game at home. Another loss to a division rival, they already lost a thriller in Dallas, would be very tough even this early in the season. The NFC East is so difficult, you can't fall too far behind in the race. Philadelphia knows that and is viewing this as a gigantic game. The Birds seem to "own" Washington just as the Skins "own" Dallas. Philly has now won 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two. Despite the fact they have one more loss than Washington, the Eagles own better numbers on BOTH sides of the ball. Their defense is possibly the most improved unit in the league allowing just 18 PPG and 245 total yards per game. On offense Andy Reid's troops average 22 more yards per game and 6 more points per game than Washington. While Washington is playing well, we expect an "average" performance here with a young QB and new head coach in a tough situation. We side with a veteran Philly team that is now back into a corner after last week's loss @ Chicago.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1) over Buffalo Bills
ASA 5-Star @ Arizona Cardinals (-1)
PLAY THIS GAME BEFORE THE LINE MOVES! The Cards were embarrassed last week at New York allowing the Jets to put up an incredible 56 points. It was a tough spot for Arizona as they were on the east coast for the second straight week after playing at Washington the previous Sunday. Turnovers were the key culprit on Sunday as Arizona coughed it up SEVEN times. Those seven turnovers led to 34 POINTS for the Jets. Believe it or not the stats were actually quite one sided in favor of the losing team. Arizona had 10 more first downs and almost 100 more total yards. However, you have absolutely no chance to win in the NFL if you give the ball away that many times. Expect the Redbirds to clean that up this weekend at home. The Bills are the “surprise” of the league with a record of 4-0. However, they have to show us a bit more before we jump on the bandwagon. We give them credit for winning all of their games to date, however their schedule has been less than daunting, especially the last two weeks. Two weeks ago the Bills came from behind to beat the 1-3 Raiders 24-23. Buffalo was down by 9-points with under seven minutes to go in the game and they were able to hit a field goal at the buzzer to win. Last Sunday they played the now 0-4 Rams and were behind in the second half. The Bills finally grabbed a 20-14 lead early in the fourth quarter but it took a 33-yard interception return for a TD to do it. The terrible St. Louis offense, 30th in total yards per game, actually had 103 more yards in the contest. Therefore, in the last two weeks, the now all of the sudden mighty Bills, have had to make second half rallies against two teams that are now a combined 1-7. We’re not quite sold on Buffalo. Now Buffalo is on the road again this week and must travel across the country to an angry Arizona team. That’s not a great mix for Buffalo success this weekend. This team has historically struggled on the road (just 14-30 SU since November of 2002), and with such a short number on the Cards here, we’ll grab the home favorite.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
ASA 3-Star #430 @ Jacksonville (-4.5)
These two teams look like M.A.S.H units as both have suffered from multiple major injuries. The big difference is that the Jaguars have had time to adjust to their injuries as they came early on while Pittsburgh continues to get dinged up every weekend. Last Monday night the Steelers lost backup running back Mendenhall who was filling in for Willie Parker, they then lost Mendenhall’s backup Davis which forced them to go out and sign Najeh Davenport who they recently released. Getting the start this week will be Mewelde Moore their 3rd string tailback who had just 13 yards last week on 8 carries versus the Ravens. The biggest loss in my opinion though is Pro Bowl guard Kendall Simmons. Simmons injured his ankle last week and is now on the IR. The Steelers offensive line has been a sieve in passing situations this season as they have allowed 15 sacks which is second most in the NFL. The beating Ben Roethlisberger has endured is starting to take its toll. Big Ben has a bad shoulder right now and is listed as questionable for this game which would mean ex-Jag Leftwich would get the start. The Steelers offense has struggled this season and currently rank 29th in the league in total ‘O’ and 24th in points scored per game. Now without a running game, their best lineman and a less than 100% QB we can’t see them competing in this game. Defensively the Steelers aren’t much better off as they are without Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton and Nick Eason which also leaves their D-line very thin. The Jaguars will exploit this weakness with their potent two-headed rushing attack with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew. Last season the Jags were 2nd in the NFL in rushing averaging 149.2 yards per game on 4.57 yards per carry. This season the Jags are currently 12th in the league in rushing at 126 ypg and they’ll get the ground game going Sunday night at home versus the Steelers. Jacksonville QB David Garrard has found a rhythm after the first two losses of the season by engineering a game-winning drive over the Colts in Indianapolis two weeks ago and then leading the Jags to an overtime victory last weekend over the Texans. The Jaguars have won 18 of their last 24 home games and four straight in this series going back to 2005. The home team has been a moneymaking 15-5 ATS the last 20 meetings and we feel that trend continues here.
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
Strong Redskins/Eagles Under
Super Play Cardinals
20 Teaser Miami and Houston
50 Cincy over
100 Tampa over
10* Tampa Bay
MIA / SDC Under 45.0 2* TOTAL
NYG / SEA Under 44.0 1* TOTAL
BAL 3.0 (-125) vs TEN 2* WAGER )
CAR (-130) vs KAN 2* TEASER BET
PANTHERS -2.5 & BEARS +4 (2*) Teaser
DAL -16.0 vs CIN 2* WAGER
PHI (-130) vs WAS NFL 3* TEASER PLAY of the DAY ***
EAGLES +1/2 & NY GIANTS pk (3*) Teaser Bet
Yesterday we used the Teaser of the Day effectively by taking 2 Home Favs down to where they only need to Win SU for us to Cash...We will use the same appraoch today in the NFL...VR
PHI -6.0 (-120) vsWAS 2* WAGER (Buy the 1/2 Point to -6)
SFX 3.5 (-120) vs NE 2* WAGER
(Buy the 1/2 Pt to +3.5...Patriots are -3 and -125 at most shops so it should cost you less than usual)
HOU 4.0 (-120) vs IND 2* WAGER (Buy the 1/2 Point to +4)
BUF 2.0 (-110) vs ARI NFL 3* GAME of the WEEK
PLEASE WAIT TO MAKE THIS BET BECAUSE WE ARE HOPING ARZ GETS to -2.5 SO WE CAN BUY IT TO +3...Like Wisconsin Last Night...VR
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
500* Kansas City/Carolina Under
20* San Diego
10* NY Giants
10* San Francisco
Big Gun Packers
Inner Circle Seahawks
Personal Best Cardinals
20* Big Drive Dolphins
20* Big Drive Vikings
15* Big Drive Cardinals
3 units 49ers
2 units Bills
2 units Titans/Ravens Under
Las Vegas Sports
10* CINCINNATI BENGALS +17
10* ARIZONA CARDINALS -1
10* BALTIMORE RAVENS +3
Lions +3.5 over Bears
Detroit is off to yet another bad start, but after firing team president Matt Millen this team must feel reborn and ready to head in the right direction. The Bears turned the ball over too many times last week against the Eagles and are lucky to have won that game. Detroit has so many weapons on offense and are lucky that a few defensive players on Chicago are hurt or suspended. This obviously is a must win for the Lions. Take Detroit.
Seahawks/Giants Over 44.5
Plaxico Burress will be out again for the Giants, but I don't think it will matter much. Both offenses have huge height, weight and experience advantages against the guy that they are going head to head against. Seattle has a few receivers coming back that have yet to play this year. Look out for this Seattle team in the next few weeks. Look for both teams to put up a lot of points. Take the Over.
Arizona -1 over Buffalo
The Cardinals will be without their best receiver today and the Bills are 4-0. So does it make sense that Arizona is favored against the best team record wise in the NFL? I do give this team credit, but in the last two weeks they had to battle back hard to beat the two worst teams in the NFL. Buffalo will be without their top cornerback and possible Marcus Stroud. The Cardinals should play good home defense and score enough points in their system to win this game. Take Arizona.
Jaguars -4 over Steelers
Pittsburgh looked awful last Monday on offense until very late in the game. The Steelers also allowed a rookie QB drive all the way down the field to tie the game up in the closing minutes. This would never happen in past years. The Steelers have no running game as all their backs are hurt. Jacksonville has two strong backs that will have a field day against a Steelers front three missing two of their starters. Big Ben is still hurting and I just don't see how the Steelers keep up on the road. Take the Jaguars.
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
(2 of 4 plays today)
AFC/NFC Game of the Year 20* NE Patriots.
The Pats and 49ers meet in San Francisco on Sunday but it will not be a Tom Brady vs Alex Smith (former No. 1 overall pick) showdown at QB. Rather it's Matt Cassell for the Pats and JT O'Sullivan for the 49ers. Cassell made his first start since high school in New England's Week 2 win at the NY Jets and O'Sullivan will be making his fifth consecutive NFL start, after spending the majority of his six-year NFL career as a journeyman taxi-squadder. The 49ers are 2-2 in the weak NFC West, which is good enough for a first-place tie with Arizona. However, let's note that San Fran's four games have come against opponents with a combined 5-9 record in '08. The 49ers' offense is a "work in progress" under first-year OC Mike Martz and the inexperienced O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan's completed 61.3 percent so far, averaging 240.5 YPG with four TDs and three INTs. RB Frank Gore is off to a very good start with 369 YR (4.9 per) and 15 catches but the OL has allowed an NFL-high 19 sacks and the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. Veteran Bruce had four catches for 153 yards vs Seattle but in his other three games, has totaled just seven catches for 73 yards. Neither Battle nor Bryant Johnson are proven WRs, while highly-touted TE Davis has just two catches in his last three games. As for the 'D,' the 49ers have allowed 30 points to Seattle and 31 to New Orleans, two teams with banged-up OLs and all sorts of injuries to their WRs. The Pats saw their 21-game regular season winning streak end in Week 3, as the Dolphins came into Foxboro and won, 38-13. Chad Pennington completed 17-of-20 passes in that game plus the Dolphins ran for 216 yards. Ronnie Brown had 113 yards (6.6 per) and Ricky Williams had 98 (6.1). Brown ran for four TDs plus threw a TD pass. After allowing 14 FD and 284 yards in Week 1 and 12 FDs and 256 yards in Week 2, the New England defense a allowed 461 yards vs the Dolphins. With a bye last week, you can expect the New England defense to rebound with a prideful effort here. Cassel has just one TD pass in his two starts and Moss just six catches for 47 yards in those two contests. However, with Welker, Gaffney and TE Watson joining Moss, the Pats own an effective pass-catching group. RB Maroney's shoulder is better (he's listed as probable) plus in LaMont Jordan, Sammy Morris and the do-everything Kevin Faulk, the Pats have more than enough options to get back on track offensively. New England's home loss to Miami was the club's worst loss ever in the seven-year history of Gillette Stadium but the Pats will take an 11-game regular season road winning streak into this game (8-3 ATS). New England isn't the team it was at this time last year but it's still infinitely more talented than San Francisco (entered this season with a 25-55 mark the previous five seasons). Belichick will present O'Sullivan with some coverages he hasn't seen and San Fran's OL hasn't been able to keep him safe so far. San Fran's high-risk, high-reward offense is in trouble vs the Pats in this one.
Las Vegas Insider Arz Cardinals.
The Cards last made the NFL playoffs in 1998 and the Bills last qualified for the NFL's postseason in 1999. Arizona's nine-year postseason drought is the longest active one in the NFL, while Buffalo's streak of eight consecutive playoff-less years ranks tied for second-most with the Lions. So what do we have here? The Cards are just 2-2 but find themselves in a tie for first in the very weak NFC West (with the 49ers, of all teams), while the 4-0 Bills are one of just THREE unbeatens in all of the NFL (Titans are also 4-0 and the Giants are 3-0). Are the Bills really this good? I don't think so, at all. They opened with an easy win in Week 1 against a Seattle team devastated with injuries and one which never has traveled with much success in the Eastern time zone. In Week 2, the Bills won at 20-16 Jacksonville, a team with a weak set of WRs and a depleted OL, after trailing 16-10 with under 4 1/2 minutes left in the game. Buffalo then needed another late rally (trailed the dysfunctional Raiders 23-14 with less than 4 1/2 minutes left at home) to edge Oakland 24-23. Last week in St Louis, the Bills found themselves down 14-6 at half vs the Rams, getting outgained 210-96 yards in yards. However, the Rams just could be the NFL's worst team and Buffalo scored the game's final 25 points for a 31-14 (and cover). The point I'm making is that the Bills have really had an easy 'go' of it, as only Jacksonville (now 2-2 after an 0-2 start) looks like a quality team among their first four opponents. The Cards have to be glad to be back in the desert, after a two-week stay on the East Coast resulted in a 24-17 loss to the Redskins and an embarrassing 56-28 loss to the Jets. Arizona lost more than a game against the Jets, as Anquan Boldin almost had his head removed by two Jet defenders and will almost surely miss this game. However, early reports are that he won't be out for long, which is good news for Arizona's chances to break its playoff drought this year (I called for that to happen in the preseason). Even without Boldin (19 catches and five TDs the last three games), I expect Arizona to win here and the pointsprad is such that a win almost guarantees a cover. Warner has been very good this year at QB (1,222 yards / 66.7 percent / 8 TDs and 4 INTs) and while Arizona's running game may NEVER "come around," the Cards know the importance of this game. With Seattle struggling this year, the Cards can win this division. They've opened with three road games in their first four and next week they get the Cowboys at home. A bye follows and then its another stretch of three road games in four weeks. Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a non-division home favorite (opening number) and while the Cards could move to being a small home dog in this one because of the Boldin injury, the Bills are 'ripe for the plucking' in this one.
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
NON CONFERENCE OVER & UNDER PLAY OF THE YEAR
Tampa Bay and Denver OVER 47
Never Lost 24-0 NFL Super System Crusher
Denver Broncos -3
50,000 Dime Laugher of the Season
50,000 Dime Oddsmakers Error
Laugher of the Year
Arizona Cardinals -1 over Buffalo
TWO 10,000 DIME BONUS LOCKS
Miami Dolphins +6.5 over San Diego
Jacksonville -5 over Pittsburgh
NHL 1* (Regular Play) Ottawa Senators Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh @ 2:30 PM ET in Stockholm, Sweden –
I have pasted in my write-up from yesterday below. The reason of this is because this is the same match-up, same place. The only difference today is that the Penguins are considered the home teams so they do get the last line change. However, I watched this game yesterday and it was simply unfortunate that the Senators blew a 3-2 third period and then lost in OT on a turnover. The Sens actually were very impressive on the penalty kill and, overall, Martin Gerber looked pretty comfortable between the pipes. With Ray Emery now out of the NHL, look for Gerber to have a big season. The Senators played well in most aspects of their game yesterday and they got done in by a key turnover in the overtime, plus a rare, fluke goal from a Pens defenseman yesterday. The Senators will bounce back today to earn the split after blowing yesterday’s game late!
Keys to this game include: 1) The Senators have big-time revenge on their minds after getting swept out of the playoffs by the Penguins last season. Pittsburgh outscored them 16-5 in that series; 2) The Senators improved in the offseason. There is a new attitude on this team with a new coach, Craig Hartsburg, and the addition of grizzled veterans Jarkko Ruutu (a former Penguin) and Jason Smith (he was Philadelphia’s captain). The move of Daniel Alfredsson to the second line will also help give the Senators offense more balance; 3) The Senators should enjoy success against a Penguins defense suffering with some significant injury issues. Two of their top four defensemen are out for this game. Sergei Gonchar is one of the top power play “quarterbacks” in the league and he’s out for a long time after shoulder surgery. Ryan Whitney has a bright future as one of the most talented up and coming two way defenseman in the league but he’s still out after having left foot surgery in the off-season; 4) The Penguins did have their roster raided in the off-season. They lost Ruutu (as noted above) plus Marian Hossa (big loss for Sidney Crosby), as well as Ryan Malone, Gary Roberts, Georges Laraque, and Adam Hall. Included in that group is some tough hard-nosed players and this really hurts the make-up of this team entering the season; 5) The Penguins were only 11-11-2 in the first two months of the season last year. The Senators raced out of the gate last season with a 9-1 October. This shows that Ottawa certainly has the capability to get off to a strong start and, the fact that they finished last season so poorly, absolutely insures that the Sens are fully focused entering the new season. They want this first game badly and are much hungrier in terms of comparing the state of minds of these two teams entering their season opener in Stockholm, Sweden. By the way, even though these first two games for these teams are being played overseas Ottawa is the home team for this first game and that gives them the edge on line changes! Play Ottawa on the money line as a regular selection.
4 units Baltimore over
4 units Baltimore
4 units Atlanta
4 units La Angels over
Weekend Wipeout Winner (3-0 in NFL '08 by combined scores of 92-33)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Den Broncos at 4:05 ET. Both the Bucs and Broncos enter this game 3-1. The Bucs lost their first game of '08 but have since won three in a row under the leadership of Brian Griese. The Broncos won their first three but then lost last week in KC, as the Chiefs ended their 12-game losing streak. Griese has been quite a story but one wonders how much longer the Bucs can overcome his mistakes. Griese was steady in his first start of '08 against Atlanta but in each of the last two weeks, he's thrown three INTs in each game. He did throw for 407 yards (67 attempts!) at Chicago but last week vs Green Bay, he was just 15-of-30 for 149 yards. The Broncos have few problems scoring this year but the team's defense ranks 30th in YPG allowed (408.8) and 29th in PPG (29.3). The pass 'D' has been terrible (276 YPG allowed with seven TDs and only one INT) and hasn't been helped by a pass rush which has accounted for only six sacks. Griese beat the Bears at Chicago in Week 3 (played for the Bears in '06 and '07) and will have similar motivation here in Denver, having begun his career with the Broncos (from 1998 through 2002 while starting 51 games). Griese's been operating without Tampa's best WR in Galloway and he's been ruled out of this game as well (foot). Antonio Bryant and Ike Hilliard have filled in well but Galloway's a huge loss, especially when trying to trade points with Denver. The Broncos own the NFL's top offense (435.5 YPG) and rank second in scoring (33.3 PPG). QB Cutler is over his health concerns of last year for Denver and enters this game with a completion percentage of 65.9, while averaging 318.8 YPG with nine TDs and just two INTs (98.6 QB rating). WRs Marshall has 31 catches in just three games and rookie Eddie Royal has 27 catches after four games. Denver's running game is not as prolific as in years past (121.3 YPG ranks 14th) but before the team lost four turnovers last week at KC, the Broncos had scored 41, 39 and 34 points in their first three games. The Buccaneers defense has been known for its "cover-2" scheme and making big plays. That has been the case in the early going this year, as the Bucs have 11 sacks and have forced nine turnovers during their 3-1 start. However, I just love the way Cutler is playing. The Broncos have averaged 34.0 PPG over their last five home games, while the Bucs are living very dangerously these days with Brian Griese's back-to-back three-interception games. Griese will want to perform well back in Denver but the Bucs are just 2-9 SU in non-division road games since the beginning of the '06 season. This pointspread has really come down and the Broncos double-digit win will result in an ATS romp. Weekend Wipeout Winner Den Broncos.
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