Sunday Premium Service Plays
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
3 units on Baltimore +3
3 units on San Francisco +3.5
3 units on Arizona -1
3 units on Atlanta & Green Bay Over 40.5
3 units on Pittsburgh +5.5
2 Added picks for the Sunday card. Going to take a pass on Miami and not force a play at +6, if you can get +7 -110 with a local I think they are a good bet. Everyone will likely to be on Jacksonville Sunday night so you may get a better line before kickoff if you wait. Getting the opportunity of Pittsburgh +6 or better is worth taking the chance of losing +5 which is a dead number in the NFL
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
Regardless of whether or not, Aaron Rodgers plays, I expect this to be a low-scoring affair. If Rodgers plays, he may not be at 100% and the Packers are likely to be a little more conservative in their play-calling in order to protect him and also due to the fact that he threw three interceptions last week. If he doesn't play, the Packers will be very inexperienced at the QB position and will be even more cautious. Either way, after a season-low in rushing yards last week, we should be able to expect a heavy dose of the run here, as the Packers look to get that part of their game going again. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons figure to have real trouble scoring against this Green Bay defense. The Packers remain excellent defensively and the Falcons have managed a mere 18 points (9 in each game) in their two road games, both of which finished with identical 24-9 scores. Including those results, the Falcons have now seen the UNDER go 14-4 their last 18 road games. Meanwhile, the UNDER is 3-0-1 the last four times the Packers were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Look for this afternoon's game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting once again.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Prediction: Houston Texans
The betting public will always love Peyton Manning and the Colts while they're particularly down on the Texans at the moment. At 1-2, the Colts haven't played much better than the winless (0-3) Texans though and I believe that the "public sentiment" has given us excellent value with what will be a highly motivated home underdog. While the Colts are dealing with some key injuries (including Bob Sanders) I still believe that this is Houston team is better than it has shown. Keep in mind that the Texans were forced to play their first three games on the road due to the effects of Hurricane Ike. Last week, they traveled to Jacksonville and very nearly beat a very good Jaguars team, eventually losing by three. Note that the also lost a close one vs. Jacksonville in their last game.) Now the Texans return to Reliant Stadium where they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games and a highly profitable 8-2 SU/ATS their last 10. The Texans are 4-1 ATS their last five home meetings in this series. They had a season-high in yards last week and I look for them to earn at least the cover here.
San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Miami Dolphins
I believe the situation strongly favors the home dog here. After back to back covers, the betting public is back in love with the Chargers. However, while their Monday night cover two weeks ago was reasonably impressive (that was a home game) they were very fortunate to cover in last week's win at Oakland. That game was a lot tougher than the score indicated as the Chargers were behind the entire way. Now they will be traveling across the country to play an early game (a situation which has given past Charger teams some trouble) which will also be their second of back to back road games. Note that the Chargers are just 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. While the Chargers are off a hard fought game and in a difficult travel spot, the Dolphins are coming off a bye and brimming with confidence after blowing out the Patriots prior to their break. The Dolphins are 7-2 SU/ATS their last nine in this series and I look for them to give the Chargers all they can handle here, earning at least the cover.
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
Last week's results have helped to give us excellent value here. Buffalo rallied to beat St. Louis by a 31-14 score, sneaking over the total. Meanwhile, Arizona combined with the Jets for a whopping 91 points, suffering a 56-35 loss. Obviously, the Arizona defense will be wanting to bounce back with a significantly better effort. It should be noted that many of those points were caused by turnovers. More importantly, note that the Cardinals had only allowed an average of 15.67 points through their previous three games, showing that they are actually much stronger than the score against the Jets indicates. As for the Bills, they're allowing just 15.8 points per game. They're also limiting opponents to a 19.8% third down conversion rate, which is the best mark in the entire league. Even with last week's game (barely) finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a profitable 8-3 the last 11 times the Bills played on the road. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 19-8 the last 27 times that the Bills played a road game with a total ranging from pick'em to +3. During that same stretch, the UNDER was a highly profitable 64-38 in all Buffalo games which had a line the +3 to -3 range. The Bills played back to back road games twice last season and they averaged only 12 points in the second of those back to back games, most recently a 17-16 game vs. the Redskins. Last year's lone road game played in October saw the Bills combine with the Jets for a mere 16 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 9-2 their last 11 October road games. While the Bills will be without receiver/returner Parrish, the Cardinals may well be without star wideout Boldin. Either way, I expect a fairly heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. Note that the Cardinals average 27 running plays per game while the Bills average 29. Look for a big game from both defenses and for the final score to prove much lower than expected, finishing below the inflated number. *Non Conference Total of the Month
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Prediction: Detroit Lions
Detroit was a dismal 31-84 record with Matt Millen calling the shots. With the Millen era finally over and having had an extra week to prepare, I fully expect the Lions to play their best game of the season. Note that the Lions were 2-0 SU/ATS after their bye week the past two seasons. Last year, they entered their bye week having been crushed by a score of 34-3. However, with the extra week to recover and prepare, they responded with a 23-16 home win over Tampa. In fact, they came out of their bye week and went 3-0 SU/ATS their next three games, outscoring those three opponents (Bucs, Bears, Broncos) by a combined score of 83-30! Those results should give them some hope and should have helped to make the extra week of practice time that much more productive. While the Lions had a much-needed week off, the Bears are coming off a hard-fought and physical Sunday night game vs. the Eagles. Prior to that, the Bears played a very hard fought overtime game vs. Tampa. Despite having a losing record overall, Detroit was actually 2-0 SU/ATS against the Bears last season. The Lions were underdogs for both those games but won by nine at Chicago and by 10 here at Detroit. Interestingly, the Bears were also coming off a hard-fought (19-16) win over the Eagles, prior to that game. Looking back further and we find that the Lions are a healthy 13-5 SU (11-6-1 ATS) their last 18 home meetings with the Bears. QB Kitna, who is expected to play, has had particular success vs. the Bears since becoming a Lion. In four games against Chicago (as a Lion) he has thrown for more than 1000 yards and has had five touchdowns without an interception. The Bears, who may be without leading receiver Brandon Lloyd, have seen three straight games come down to the wire, all of them decided by four points or less. Although they managed to upset the Colts in a game which had a total of 43, the Bears are still an ugly 4-18 SU the last 22 times that they played a road game where the total ranged between 42.5 and 45 points. The Lions know this is a huge game. A loss and the season is pretty much a complete write-off. However, with a win here, they'll be right back within striking distance in the NFC North. I'll take all the points I can get, but I look for the Lions to rise to the occasion and win this game outright. *NFC North
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
2 units Houston +3
2 units Denver -3
5 units Arizona -1.5
5 units Kansas City +10
10 units New England -3
10 units Dallas -16
10 units Houston +3 (underdog of day)
15 units Philadelphia -6
10 unit Teaser of Week
Miami +16.5, Detroit +13.5, Arizona +8.5
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
$400.00 Take ‘Under’ 44.5 Chicago at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
The 'under' is 5-2 in Chicago's last seven road games. I think that Detroit is going to "get back to basics" after their bye week and I look for them to commit to the running game. I also think that they will shore up their defense in the time off and that they won't get blown out like they have in their first three games. This game features two teams that both employ the Tampa-2 defense, which is supposed to minimize big plays. Also, this is a key game for both teams that could change the direction of both seasons. I expect it to be close and to stay in the 30's.
$2000.00 Take Denver (-3) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) -110
The Broncos come home after an upset loss and should regroup nicely. This is a very young, inexperienced Denver squad and I think that they are going to be affected more drastically by playing at home versus on the road. Tampa Bay is coming off a pretty emotional home win over Green Bay, but they had trouble with the Packers passing attack.
$300.00 Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Indianapolis at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
Also Houston +3 for $300.00 +104
We are going against the squares with this selection, as everyone expects two big offenses to put up all kinds of points. However, both teams move the ball well enough to keep the chains - and the clock - moving. I also don't think either team stops the run particularly well so look for both teams to keep it on the ground. Many of the games in this series have gone 'over', so I am looking for the books to overcompensate and for us to collect with an easy 'under'.
$800.00 Take Buffalo (+1.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +104
People continue to doubt the undefeated Buffalo Bills. They are undefeated on the season, and if they can win in Jacksonville I think they can win out in the desert against a Cardinals team that has only beaten bad teams like Miami and San Francisco. Arizona is also probably going to be without some key contributors, as Anquan Boldin and Adrian Wilson are both just 50-50 to play. Buffalo is 13-4-2 ATS following an ATS win and I think they keep it rolling.
$2000.00 Take Washington (+6) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
I don't think that Brian Westbrook is going to play this weekend, and if he doesn't then look for the Redskins to make it back-to-back divisional wins on the road. Even if Westbrook does suit up, he won't be 100 percent and the Eagles are not the same team without him in the lineup. The Redskins have covered seven of nine games in conference play and they are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven against the Eagles. The road team has been the play in this series, winning six of nine games outright. I think the points hold up.
$400.00 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+16), Take Vanderbilt (+14.5), and Take Kansas City (+19.5) -480/400
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