Tuesday Service Plays
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Middle Tennessee State -2 1/2 (3 Unit Play)
Florida Atlantic/Middle Tennessee State Under 52 1/2 (3 Unit Play)
FAU has played the tougher schedule on paper but MTSU has taken on some tough teams also. I think the key point that is not being covered in this game tonight is that MTSU is already 0-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and a loss here tonight will pretty much make them an outside shot candidate to win the conference this year. MTSU's main problem this year has been in running the ball but FAU has not performed particularly well against the run this year. On paper the game appears to be a pretty even but in these conference games these teams really get up for one another and the familiarity with each other usually makes for a competitive lower scoring affair. I think MTSU will win this one tonight with their defense and the game stays Under the posted total.
The Tigers looked good yesterday until an injury to Freddy Garcia forced Leyland to bring in the bullpen and they blew up in losing 8-2 so I had an 0-2 day for a loss of 4 units yesterday! Here is my selection for the Minnesota/Chicago Play-In Game:
Minnesota +1.38 (3 Unit Play)
I was bouncing back and forth on the total in this game and decided just to stay off of that completely and go with the underdog Twins in this spot. Nick Blackburn will get the start here today for the Twins and his numbers are downright ugly in this last three starts but he just faced the White Sox last week and held them to two earned runs in five tough innings. He pitched five times against the White Sox so far this year and he is 2-2 in those starts with a 5.28 ERA which also includes a relief appearance. He has struggled at Comiskey Park though going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA but I just have a feeling he will be able to give the Twins a good start today. The White Sox are countering with John Danks who was rocked in his last start and will be making his first career start on three days rest. Danks has struggled badly at home against the Twins going 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in four starts. This series all year has been dominated by the home team and both teams have hit the other teams pitcher fairly well so I have to go with the more rested pitcher and in my opinion the better bullpen and I think the Twins will leave Chicago with the AL Central Title!
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
"1 UNIT" BASEBALL PERCENTAGE TOTAL
Twins at White Sox OVER 9
Of course this is a "play in" extra game that will determine who wins the American League Central Division. We had an "added" game for all the marbles just one year ago when the Padres/Rockies went 13 innings in what turned out to be a 9-8 offensive shootout. One of the keys to this evening's selection is the weather at Chicago where the winds will be blowing OUT towards centerfield at about 10-to-15 miles per hour. What makes that weather forecast so significant is the fact that Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn is a "flyball" pitcher who has had his share of problems keeping the ball down in the strikezone. The White Sox offense has lived for the "longball" all season led by currently injured outfielder Carlos Quentin who actually was atop the senior circuit in the homerun department. Going tonight for Chicago is John Danks who showed signs of arm fatigue down the stretch and is coming off a horrible outing where an opponent nailed him for SEVEN runs. Blackburn has also had problems against the middle of the batting order as the Minnesota threesome of fierce swingers (Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer) are lifetime 24-for-40 against Danks. Chicago reached this "play in" by defeating Detroit at home yesterday with the help of an Alexi Ramirez GRAND SLAM. My database research indicates that the White Sox are an incredible 14-4 OVER the total this season when off a "margin" victory of 6+ runs. Minnesota just happens to be 22-10 OVER/ROAD this campaign when facing an opponent with a winning record. The big story is that Minnesota's Nick Blackburn is "7-0" OVER the total this season on the ROAD against an opponent with a winning record. Do I hear "8-0" OVER anyone?
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Florida Atlantic +2.5 over MTSU
The Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games, while the Blue Raiders are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Last year Howard Schnellenberger and his FAU Owls were 1-4 in non-conference play (regular season) and were outscored by 22.4 ppg, but they rebounded nicely to win the conference with a 6-1 mark. This year the Owls have gone 1-3 in non-conference play so far and they have been outscored by 19.5 ppg. I see the same bounceback coming as last year. The Owls do return 18 starters from last years team, including 10 form an offense that put up 31 ppg last year. This years offense has struggled as they have scored just 13 total points vs Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota, but when they faced a team at their level (UAB) they put up 49 points. Tonight they face a struggling MTSU defense that has allowed 24 ppg and 363 ypg so far, including 31 ppg and 370 ypg during their 0-2 Sun Belt start. MTSU's offense has not gotten on track this year as they are averaging just 17.2 ppg and 346 ypg so far. Tonight they do face an Owl defense that has been sub par so far as they are allowing 35 ppg and 441 ypg, but I feel that Howard will have his defense ready to put forth a good effort. The Owls are the defending Sun Belt Champs and they will start out this years conference schedule the same way they did last year, with a win vs the Blue Raiders.
1 UNIT PLAY
FAU/ MTSU Under 52
Gonna take a shot here with the Under and hope that the Owls don't hang 40 on the board in this one. FAU's road games have averaged 29.7 ppg this year, while MTSU's games overall have averaged 40.3 ppg. The Under is 17-4 in MTSU's last 21 games when they are off 1 or more consecutive SU losses in a row, while the Under is 4-1 in Owls last 5 games in September. The line has gone from 49.5 to 52 and I feel that gives us great value on the Under.
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
MIDDLE TENN (-2.5) 28 Florida Atl. 21
Florida Atlantic was the favorite in the Sun Belt Conference this season, but the Owls have played poorly in 3 of their 4 games this season and are coming off a 3-37 loss to a mediocre Minnesota squad. Middle Tennessee is one dimensional on offense, but that one dimension is quarterback Joe Craddock, who has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play in 4 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Craddock posted similarly good numbers last season and he should have pretty good success throwing against a slightly worse than average Florida Atlantic pass defense that’s allowed 7.1 yppp to teams that would average 6.9 yppp against an average team. Middle Tennessee is also coming off their worst game of the season, a 14-31 loss to Arkansas State, but the Blue Raiders have beaten a good Maryland team on this field and they hung tough on the road at Kentucky thanks to a good defensive effort. That defense has been pretty solid by Sun Belt standards (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) and should do a decent job containing a pretty good Owls attack that is 0.2 yppl better than average. While Florida Atlantic does have a slight edge from the line of scrimmage in this game, I’ll favor Middle Tennessee to win on the basis of fewer projected turnovers, much better special teams, and the home field advantage.
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
3* BEST BET of the DAY
CWS (-143) vs MIN
This number shouldn't move too much and I really had expected to see it shaded even a bit higher after the Sox were able to force this important game, especially playing at home...
Speaking of home, this series has been a "Home Club" type of series all year long...with the home club walking away the winner in "15 of 18", so you can see why I thought we would have to lay a little more vig on the Sox Tonight...
The reason I think we aren't is because the perception is that Minn was able to get that day of rest and be ready in case they need to play...while the Chi Sox were in a position where they were in "do or die" mode and we all know how difficult it is for any team to get a "must win", let alone 2 of them, back to back...and the fact that the Twins have won 6 of the L/7 in the series is also keeping the price reasonable...
For myself, the way I begin to pick winners is by evaluating all 4 aspects of MLB...starting pitching, bull-pen pitching, offense, and finally defense...especially if you are dealing with a team's whose starter allows a lot of his balls, even outs...in play...That should give us a clearer picture of each team's strengths and weaknesses so that we can compare each in the given match-up...and Finally, I come up with my own projected final score based on a system that I have been improving for years...
Well, after doing all of that...it has become evident that the White Sox have a huge edge tonight...I feel that not only do they hold the advantage by being home, but the most crucial aspect of tonight's game may very well come down to the bull-pens...and that is where I believe the Twins fall extremely short...
When you take a look at the bullpen for the Twins, you will find that they look like a very competant unit overall...and that may very well be true...But when you look at the difference between how they perform on the road, compared to at home...it's staggering...
Getting to play this one at home is the biggest advantage for the Sox...they are a team who has won "64%" of their Home Games...and none may be more important than this evening...The Twins on the other hand have won only 43% of their road games and only 2 times have they left Chicago with a win this year...
Then, when I looked for Confirmations on this play...I liked what I was hearing because experience tells me the "sharps" would have been all over the Dog in this game if they even felt their was any true value in taking the plus money...And even more surprising has been word from the sportsbooks which claims that they are receiving some split action on this game as far as the side goes...And I have always liked betting Marquee Prime-Time Games when the money isn't all one sided...
Bottom line, we have a chance to back the home team who has had a lot of success there this season...in their biggest game of the season...in a situation that allows for a Profit as long as they come through 59%+ of the time...And when I put the 4 aspects I evaluate together, the numbers show that in this spot, we could expect the home team to win closer to 68%, which would mean we could lay -213 and still break even in the long run...
Tonight, we will be asked to lay less than -150, and that is just fine by me...We will go ahead and make this our MLB 3* BEST BET...as our Final Bet of the MLB Regular Season as we look to close it out by Winning Over 75 Units of Profit.
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report
5 STAR SELECTION (rated 1-6 Units)
Florida Atlantic +3 over MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
In a nationally televised Sun Belt Conference game on Tuesday, the Blue Raiders will be hosting the Owls with both teams looking to shake off recent losses. Middle Tennessee is 0-2 in conference play after losing to Troy in the season opener and Arkansas State last weekend, while Florida Atlantic is also looking for their first SBC win after completing a four-game stretch of out-of-conference games. The Owls have not been too impressive thus far, although they've faced some difficult competition against Texas, Michigan State, and Minnesota, teams that have a combined record of 12-2 SU!
We’ve seen this before with Florida Atlantic, as they the defending conference champs and were selected by the conference's coaches to repeat as champions. Just like last year, they don't possess an overwhelming record through the first four games. In fact, they started 0-4 last year, but came on strong in conference play, won the league title and then beat up Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl.
The Owls star on offense is junior quarterback Rusty Smith, last season's Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year and was voted preseason Offensive Player of the Year. As good as Smith and the offense are, the defense may actually be better. The Owls landed five players on the preseason All-SBC First Team, led by senior linebacker Frantz Joseph-the SBC's preseason Defensive Player of the Year.
Our Power Ratings show great line value with the defending Sun Belt champions, as it reveals the wrong team being favored here. It’s about this time in the season, that we look to play ON a team that is being overlooked after a bad start, but has accrued its poor record by playing stellar teams with winning records.
A closer look at the following numbers and handicapping factors also show the visitors having a strong edge here.
We look to Play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, especially the 2'.
Three is the top key number in college football, meaning more games end with a 3-point margin than any other. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait. Such is the case here, as Middle Tennessee State opened at -2’, only to see it go to -3 at most books on Monday. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.
The Blue Raiders have had a very hard time running the football this season, and that certainly is at least partially a result of a battered offensive line. We also like to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries. If a defense or offense is missing several starters all at once, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. A team with a single unit that is missing several key starters and reserves, such as an offensive line without 2+ starters or a defensive backfield missing its top 3 cornerbacks, also figures to struggle. Such is the case here for Middle Tennessee, as they will be without 3 projected starters on the o-line. The Raiders now have four freshmen and three sophomores among its top eight offensive linemen, many of who are learning on the fly. This is not a recipe for success against a veteran, defending champion Florida Atlantic team hosted by coaching legend Howard Schnellenberger.
Middle Tennessee is:
0-6 SU in their last 6 non-Saturday games and 0-4 ATS (-12 ppg) when not getting more than 30 points in non-Saturday contests! Florida Atlantic is 3-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) in last 3 non-Saturday games since 2005.
An NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM reveals that Sun Belt Conference teams have been miserable at home under the bright lights of highlighted, non-Saturday games. It states:
Play AGAINST a Sun Belt Conference non-Saturday home team (not an underdog of more than 8 points) with less than 16 days rest.
Just since 2005, these teams are 0-9-1 ATS, failing to cover by nearly 10 ppg on average, and now the Blue Raiders qualify as a PLAY AGAINST team.
Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic is:
4-1 SU (+10 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+13.9 ppg) all-time off a SU & ATS loss vs. a conference opponent, while Middle Tennessee is 0-5 SU (-7 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-14 ppg) in the reverse role when not coming off a non-lined home SU loss.
6-0 SU (+14 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) off allowing 35+ points vs. a sub-.500% opponent.
4-0 SU (+12.5 ppg) 4-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) on the road vs. current Sun Belt Conference teams playing with revenge. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee is 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) in the reverse role when not favored by 14+ points.
5-0 SU (+11.2 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) in their last 5 conference road games
4-0 SU (+10 ppg) & ATS (+16.1 ppg) as an underdog/pick ‘em/or small favorite of less a TD or less vs. first SBC foe of the season.
We also have a few NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS active favoring the Owls. Despite coming off 2 pitiful offensive showings, team playing a non-Saturday game away from home have done well. Specifically, since at least 1980, non-Saturday road/neutral site teams off 2 underdog SU losses scoring less than 10 points in each game are 6-0 ATS, blasting the spread by more than 15 points per game.
Also, off 2 road losses, teams back on the road for a non-Saturday game have been ready to do battle under the conditions described. This NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM states:
Play AGAINST a non-Saturday road team (not a favorite of more than 17 points or underdog of 37+ points) off 2 road SU losses (not both conference games) vs. an opponent not off 3 home games.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 8-0 ATS, beating the spread by better than 10 ppg on average. Again, the underdog Owls qualify as the PLAY ON team which will be happy to do, as we look for them to dominate this game and win by double-digits.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 16
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
500* Florida Atlantic
30* Florida Atlantic/Mid Tennessee St. Over
Hat Florida Atlantic
5* Florida Atlantic
5* Florida Atlantic
10* Mid Tennessee St.
2% Florida Atlantic
300% Florida Atlantic/Mid Tennessee St. Over
3* Florida Atlantic
Re: Tuesday Service Plays
Atlantic +3.0 vs Middle Tenn. St.
This is a very big game for both programs. For starters, it's a rare chance to play on National TV. Additionally, with identical 1-3 records, both teams desperately need a victory. One could argue that the Blue Raiders need the game more, as they are already 0-2 in conference play. However, I believe that the Owls need the game just as badly, as they are coming off back to back blowout losses and desperately need to right the ship. While the Blue Raiders have homefield advantage, I believe that the Owls are the stronger team. I also believe that the matchups on the field favor the Owls.
The Blue Raiders have had an effective passing attack through their first four games. However, their running attack has been non-existent. That should work in favor of the Owls as they've been poor against the run but decent against the pass. The Blue Raiders have proven to be vulnerable against the pass, getting torched by Arkansas State QB Corey Leonard in their last game. Leonard threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, running for 74 more, which was the best game of his career. The suspect secondary should be just the ticket for FAU QB QB Rusty Smith, the reigning Sun Belt Conference player of the year. The Owls have also gotten soldi production from running back Charles Pierre, who leads the team with 268 yards on 41 carries with two rushing touchdowns
While it's true that the Blue Raiders have been more competitive in their games, two of those were against conference opponents. The Owls, who were the preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt after earning a share of the title and the league's automatic bid to the New Orleans Bowl last season, have played three road games against teams from the Big 10 and Big 12. That included the likes of Texas and Michigan State. Just because they weren't able to win road games against the 'big boys' doesn't mean that they won't be able to play well against the weaker teams from the Sun Belt. Keep in mind that the Owls won their lone game against a team from a non-BCS school by double-digits.
I expect the Owls to benefit from the tough non-conference road schedule. As coach Schnellenberger said earlier in the week: "We look forward to getting in conference play. We need to have a good week of practice to refocus and we need improvement from all three phases of the football team...I'm confident that's going to happen."
On the other hand, Middle Tennessee coach Rick Stockstill admitted he would have preferred more non-conference games, saying: "I think with such a young team, you just wish you had more non-conference games early in the year. And I say that because you'd just like to have more of a chance to get their feet wet with such a young football team." The Owls won last year's meeting by a score of 27-14. The game wasn't even that close as the Owls led 24-0 in the fourth quarter and finished the game with a 411-217 edge in total yards, including a massive 216-18 edge on the ground. One of Middle Tennesee State's two scores was one on blocked punt for a touchdown. The Owls brought back a whopping 18 return starters from that team while the Blue Raiders only brought back 12, making them the youngest team in the Sun Belt. Lastly, in the event that this proves to be a close game, it should be noted that Middle Tennessee freshman kicker Alan Gendreau missed his only field-goal attempt against Arkansas State and that he's just 2-of-5 for the season. I'll gladly grab the points but am expecting an upset. *Main Event
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