Saturday Service Plays
Saturday Service Plays
Maryland vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia +13.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on University Of Virginia – AiS shows a 72% probability that UVA will lose this game by 13 or fewer points when facing Maryland this Saturday. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-10 ATS for 79% since 2002. Play on a home team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Turnovers are very difficult to predict, but they do have predictable trends that can help assess a wager opportunity. UVA has certainly had it’s share of misfortune and not all turnovers are caused by mistakes. Most recently, Oregon State threw a pass into the end zone that truly should have been picked off, but it deflected of the defenders hands and into the waiting hands of the WR for a TD. I had Oregon State as a 5* Monster so I viewed it as a huge break. (I also had 7* Under in that same game, and also had a 10* winner on Mississippi in the huge upset over Florida. Point is that when I get a dog from my AiS it sometimes can be one that makes headline news.) Over the course of the season, UVA will more than likely have a poor turnover mark, but they are at any extreme level based on the AiS. The currently inflated line also reflects UVA’s weak playing performance and also Maryland’s strong 4-1 start. Reflecting this phenomenon is that UVA is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. Take UVA to cover and make this game very close.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Auburn(4-1) enters into this tilt off a big bounce back victory against the Tennessee Vols last time out, by a score of 14-12, and will be primed to take out a over hyped Vanderbilt (4-0) program in this spot. The Tigers after a loss to LSU the previous week, could have easily been in a let down situation, but instead came back strong, which in turn bodes well, for their chances against a Commodores team that is getting a lot of over done accolades. Do not get me wrong, Vandy has performed admirably so far this season, with key upset wins against the Mississippi Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks , however, now, because of their successes , they have a huge target on their backs, and will be unable to launch any more surprise attacks .
Im betting Auburns hardcore defense, that has allowed 3 of 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing, to gives fits to a good but not quite ready for prime time Vanderbilt offense., that depends almost exclusively on their running game to move the chains. Meanwhile, a Tigers offense, that has not looked very fluid this season , will finally have some successes against , a vulnerable secondary that has allowed an average of 240 passing yards per game., and with each successive game this season has also allowed more and more yards on the ground.
Final notes & Key Trends: The Tigers have won 13 straight in this series, the last three wins have come by an average of 30 PPG. The Commodores are 8-21 ATS L/29 October home games. HC Tubberville of Auburn is also 9-1 L/10 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less.
Projected score: Auburn 28 Vanderbilt 13
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Boston College / North Carolina State.
Play: Boston College
Boston College is 2-1 ATS/SU vs NC. State in L3Y.They also have the better offense and defense.They are averaging 28.6 PPG and are giving up 6.5 PPG.NC. State is only scoring 16.6 PPG, and is giving up 30 PPG.
The Eagles are averaging 331.3 yards per game, 5.0 yards per rush and 4.9 yardsp per pass, while NC. State is giving up 406 per game, 4.8 yards per rush and 7.2 yards per pass.On the other hand, NC. State is averaging 282 yards per game, 2.7 YPR and 6.1 YPP, while B/C. is giving up 253 yards per game, 3.3 YPR and 5.0 YPP.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
We rate this battle between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Minnesota Gophers as a toss up, which naturally give value to the Hoosiers catching a touchdown in this spot.
Indiana has now dropped two straight after a 2-0 start, but they were on their way to a cover vs. a tough Michigan State team last week before fumbling on the MSU 20-yard line against a prevent defense with less than two minutes remaining.
In fact, the Hoosiers have had little trouble moving the ball this year, averaging an impressive 453.5 yards of offense per game including 249.0 yards on the ground. Much of this ground attack has come courtesy of versatile quarterback Kellen Lewis, who was dinged up last week and had to leave the game with a leg injury. He did look fine after re-entering that contest though.
Now, Minnesota has also been proficient offensively, averaging 33.2 points per game with a very balanced attack. However, while Indiana carried their offensive success over to Big Ten play, the Gophers were stifled somewhat by Ohio State last week, and that game marked their ninth consecutive conference loss stretching back to last season.
These clubs are like mirror images in that both have stout offenses and porous defenses, but the fact that Indiana has at least shown they can still score inside the conference while the Gophers are a vulnerable favorite given their Big Ten losing streak gives the Hoosiers the edge as decided dogs.
Pick: Indiana +7
Texas-El Paso +7.5
The UTEP Miners broke through the win column after an 0-3 start with an emphatic 58-13 romp over Central Florida last week, and we now look for them to give the Southern Miss Golden Eagles all that they can handle here.
The Miners had a very balanced attack last week, getting 263 passing yards from Trevor Vittatoe and 119 rushing yards from their running back corps. Even the defense got into the act with two touchdowns on fumble returns.
UTEP should be able to take advantage of a disappointing Southern Miss defense that is surrendering 26.5 points on a whopping 412.5 yards per game. The Eagles have been equally generous vs. the run (4.9 yards per rush) and the pass (7.3 yard per attempt).
They lost here at home to Marshall last week in this identical role of touchdown favorites, as they were shredded for 202 yards on the ground. The Miners were no doubt taking notes, so we look for UTEP to run the ball a little more this week to help set up the passing of Vittatoe.
This should result in some time consuming drives, which should shorten the game and be beneficial to the underdogs.
Pick: UTEP +7.5
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Oregon vs. USC
Oregon is running into a buzzsaw. The Trojans were embarrassed on national television last Thursday as they lost outright to Oregon St. as 24-point favorites. Not only does USC want to regroup from that but it is also looking for some payback from last season. The Trojans lost in Eugene last season which essentially knocked them out of the National Championship race. The loss this season was early enough for there to be hope for a championship this season but now the wins must be convincing.
Oregon has looked dominant in three of its wins but back-to-back games against Purdue and Boise St. were hardly that. The victories over Washington, Utah St. and Washington St. were by a combined 173-48 which is pretty impressive. The part that is not so impressive is the fact that those teams are a combined 2-11 on the season so the wins don’t really mean that much. The home loss to the Broncos showed how this team can be beat and USC will work that advantage.
This same situation happened to USC two years ago. The Trojans went into Corvallis and lost to the Beavers by two points only to rebound the following week in trouncing Stanford 42-0. Granted, Stanford is not the same team as Oregon but the point here is that the Trojans rebound from defeats better than anyone. This team has not lost back-to-back games since early in 2001. Of the last 10 losses, not counting end of season bowl losses, the Trojans are 10-0 the next time out with those 10 wins coming by 15.2 ppg.
The Ducks are once again having problems at quarterback and it will finally catch up here after playing teams with no pulse on defense. For the second straight year Oregon has been forced to use a player tabbed fifth on the depth chart at quarterback after running out of healthy signal-callers once again. In fact, over the past nine games, the Ducks have lost five different starting quarterbacks due to injury. The Trojans defense is still one of the best around, ranked 10th overall and 8th in scoring.
Since Pete Carroll came to USC, he has devised schemes to take out powerful offenses. USC is 9-1 ATS in home games when playing teams that average 425 or more ypg and that is all about the defense. As far as the offense, 28 points in the magic number as the Trojans are 13-4 ATS over the last three seasons when they score at least 28 points. Those wins are by an average of 24.2 ppg which is more than enough to get it done here/ Look for an angry USC team to take its frustrations out on Oregon Saturday. Play USC Trojans 1.5 Units
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State
Play:Oklahoma State -24
Not quite sure what Mike Sherman is doing at Texas AM, but they are train wreck right now. Okie States offense is off the chart and they will score a TON of points against a very weak Aggie defense, and they may in fact be defenseless in this game. I honestly think OSU will run the score up here into the high 40's. Although they are undefeated, they have played no one to date so this will be their toughest test early on, but chances are Texas AM will be exposed this weekend big time with a very weak defense. Texas AM is 4-0 SU the past 4 years and 3-1 ATS in this series. Mike Gundy and his staff will want to exact some revenge and they will keep the hammer down if the chance is there. Too close to call on the spread but I give the lean to Okie State for a cover here since they have revenge on their mind after a tough 1 point loss in College Station last season. Okie State 45 Texas AM 17
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Hawaii @ Fresno St.
PICK: 4* Hawaii
One of the biggest single-season pointspread adjustments we have ever seen has taken place in this series, and only partially for the right reasons. So with a lot of flawed logic creating that line we not only get outstanding value, but the right timing to take advantage. Yes, the Hawaii program has fallen since losing June Jones and Colt Brennan. But not nearly as far as the market perceptions.
Here is the key – at 0-3 SU and ATS in lined games, the oddsmakers must keep adjusting until they find a Hawaii “buy” point with the public, which does not like to back teams that open the season on a winless ATS run. But in truth no adjustment needs to be made this week. If a team opens 0-3 ATS that can mean that they are being priced wrong, but that has not been the case. Instead it has been a stunning -15 turnover differential for the Warriors in those games that have lead to the scoreboard results, and if anything what happened on Saturday night is a clear buy signal for us.
Hawaii lost 20-17 to San Jose State, a late night (early morning, for most) result that was close enough to the spread to not raise any eyebrows. But we certainly noticed. Hawaii led 18-11 in first downs, 356-237 in total offense, and a commanding edge of 5.5 yards per play vs. only 3.5 allowed. But the Warriors were -6 in turnovers. Yet despite that turnover gap, the game was tied until a late Spartan FG won it. To be -6 in turnovers and still be tied with 2:00 remaining is actually quite an achievement, and it is the kind of thing that the markets can miss.
So what do we have going forward? An under-valued team, and excellent timing to use them. Let’s look at the value first. Two years ago Hawaii was favored by -4 on this field, and won 68-37. Then LY the Warriors were -18 at home, and won 37-30, after leading 37-16 in the fourth quarter. Yes, things have changed. They are weaker and the Bulldogs are a bit better. But to go from -18 at home LY to +22.5 on the road is a staggering adjustment.
Now for the particulars. We turned a 4* play against Fresno State last week, partially because of those Bulldog injury issues in the DL, and once again they could not stop the opposition – U.C.L.A. had season-highs in points, rushing yards and total offense, a week after Toledo had season-highs of points, rushing yards and total offense. Now we find the Bulldogs a bit drained off of that opening salvo of Rutgers – Wisconsin – Toledo – U.C.L.A., which taxes their depth on defense and makes the focus here merely one of winning and moving on (from coach Pat Hill - "This team is playing very hard through heavy legs and playing through a lot of travel. That stuff takes its toll on a team. It's been a long four games.”). And while Hawaii is still predominantly a passing team, there have been adjustments made that can go right into those very Bulldog weaknesses.
Inoke Funaki will be the starting QB for Hawaii this week, with his athleticism adding some new dimensions to the attack, and some option packages being installed to take advantage of that. That makes for a difficult week of preparation for Fresno, and the more work that Funaki gets the more effective he will be. QB coach Nick Rolovich expresses it well - "Obviously, turnovers hurt. But if you look at the plays he made when nothing was there, he got three first downs that should have been sacks, he kept drives going and for the most part, went through his progression and was disciplined in the offense." We will look for him to be even better here, while leading rusher Kealoha Pilares, who left early on Saturday after suffering a mild concussion, has also been cleared to return, creating an offensive balance that keeps the underdog in the hunt for a long time in a game that may never get anywhere near a mountain of a pointspread.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Wisconsin +2.5 from Ohio St--Pryor is going to learn the hard way about being a freshman in Mad Town
Colorado St -2 to UNLV--The Rams pull it off in Fort Collins against the Rebels
Texas Tech -7.5 at Kansas St--The Raiders go to Manhattan and stay unbeaten
Michigan St -9 to Iowa--The Spartans running game goes straight at the Hawkeyes in East Lansing
Maryland -13.5 at Virginia--Ralph's boys aren't to shabby at 4-1 and the Cavs pretty much suck at 1-3
Tulane -19 to Army--The Green Wave should handle to winless Cadets
Air Force -6 to Navy--because they are in Colorado Springs--dogfight decided on the ground
Tennessee -15.5 to Northern Illinois--The Vols finally look good--too bad it's against this team
Baylor +27 from Oklahoma--why the hell not ? I love this kid Griffith (Bears QB)--He's all over the place and tough to catch up with. The Sooners win but don't cover
Kentucky +16.5 from Alabama--The Tide are coming off the huge win over Georgia and some believe they are #1, but not after this performance
Re: Saturday Service Plays
3* Colorado +14 or better over Texas
Often times in our write ups we refer to last season. Or, in some instances, the history of a program. At times, last season means nothing when looking at a game to take place this now. However, often times you can learn a lot about what to expect by doing so. This is one such case, we feel.
There is still some uncertainly with this play. That uncertainly lies with Texas. We simply don't know how good they are. Sure, they are 4-0 and blowing teams away but they have faced some pretty bad teams so far. Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice and Arkansas. UTEP lost to Buffalo 42-17. While Texas beat UTEP 42-13, the score was 28-13 at the half and UTEP held Texas scoreless in the 3rd, only to give up 2 TD's in the 4th. But UTEP had more total yards, more on the ground and almost as much thru the air. 412 total. It wasn't as much as a mismatch as the score board indicated.
Texas did dominate the other 3 they faced but again, look at who it was. We can't get too excited about that. Yet this line no doubt reflects that performance. That, and last weeks visit to Florida State by Colorado which didn't go as planned.
So let's take a look back to last year. We have mentioned that we felt Colorado is a team on the rise. They are headed in the right direction. Remember the West Virginia game where we mentioned stepping stones. Look at any team that turns the program around and you'll find signature victories along the way. This Colorado team already has a couple of those signature wins. Last year they beat Oklahoma at home 27-24. They played #15 Kansas close, but lost 19-14, they beat Texas Tech and they beat Nebraska in a shoot out 65-51.
How is any of that significant now? Well, Colorado returns a good chunk of last years starters on offense including QB Cody Hawkins. They also have 8 starters on defense back. Texas also returns a good chunk on offense but only 4 on the defensive side of the ball. Texas lost to Oklahoma last year and only got by Nebraska by a field goal. They also lost to Texas AM and we're damn lucky to get by Central Florida early in the year. So we have some common opponents from last year that would indicate that Colorado can play on the same level as Texas. We also have some opponents that beat or played well against Texas that were just mediocre teams. So this tells us is that the talent is there on this Colorado team, to compete with Texas. What we're asking of the Buffs is not impossible. Recent history proves that. Teams change from year to year, but they don't change drastically. They get a little better, or a little worse in most cases.
Having played two decent teams their last two games in Florida State and West Virginia is a positive for Colorado here. You don't get better, or improve areas that need improving, by playing cupcakes. When you breeze through the little sisters of the poor for 4 weeks straight, there tends to be a false sense of security. Colorado, talent-wise, is better than any team Texas has faced this year.
Having a little added motivation never hurts our cause. Such is the case with this game. Now, there's revenge in college football, and then there's REVENGE with capital letters. Plain old revenge is getting even for a loss. REVENGE is getting even for a humiliation which is what happened to Colorado in 2005, the last time these two played. Texas handed the Buffs their 3rd worst defeat in the history of their program and their worst defeat since 1946! Sure, not many of the current Colorado players were around to remember that loss, but they'll be reminded of it often enough this week.
Revenge only works if the team seeking it is capable of pulling it off. We have outlined above why we think Colorado is capable. What adds to the appeal of this play is that we are getting 2 full touchdowns or more. A valiant effort still gets us the money.
There are concerns. Colorado is hurting on the offensive line. You don't want line troubles heading into a game against Texas. This is a young Colorado team. The offense only has 3 seniors. They will be a Big 12 force in the coming 2-3 years as QB Hawkins is only a Sophomore and they have a couple of fantastic rookie backs. Whether or not they take a giant step in that direction this week remains to be seen, but the talent is there to at least put forth a huge effort.
Oh, it's also homecoming. Guess who came to town last year on Homecoming? Oklahoma. Ranked #3 at the time. They left with their tail between their legs and a 27-24 loss. We'll take our chances here. The stronger schedule to date, the results against good teams and common opponents last year, the revenge factor, the altitude, Homecoming, it all adds up. Colorado +14
2* Connecticut +7 over North Carolina
In evaluating talent on a college football team, it can be helpful in certain situations to take a look back at the previous season. The situations where that is helpful is where teams have lots of starters back from the previous year. Such is the case here for both of these squads as Uconn has 9 on offense and 8 on defense while North Carolina has 10 on offense and 8 on defense. So these teams both have the same core of talent as they did a year ago. Same coaching staffs, same schemes, same team. One significant missing link for both teams is QB as both have seen their starters go down with injuries. For Uconn it's QB Tyler Lorenzen who is out 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. Notre Dame transfer Zack Frazer takes his place. More on that later. For the Tar Heels, starter TJ Yates is out and Cam Sexton and Mike Paulus are in.
So with the core talent the same as a year ago, what can we learn from taking a look back? How about this. They had 3 common opponents, Duke, Virginia and South Florida. The results? Uconn Beat Duke 45-14 while NC beat Duke 20-14. Uconn beat South Florida 22-15 while NC lost 37-10. Uconn beat Virginia 16-17 while NC lost to Virginia 22-20. Sure, there was some bad weather involved here with the Uconn South Florida game last year but by and large what we can take away from last years results is that Uconn was a little better than North Carolina. At the very least, we come away with these two teams being on the same level talent wise.
Schedule strength will be one valid argument used for North Carolina especially when you consider that North Carolina played Virginia Tech and Miami in back to back weeks winning one and having the chance to win both. Playing a higher quality opponent give a team more chance for improvement from week to week. Playing good teams makes you better. It's not Uconns fault, as a tea, but thus far they have played Hofstra, Temple, Virginia, Baylor and Louisville. North Carolina will be their toughest opponent to date without question.
Uconn may actually benefit from the QB change. Zack Frazer was good enough for the folks at Notre Dame to be interested. He's got a great arm and is much more of a long ball threat than Lorenzen was. When you have the number one rusher in the country in your backfield, and now a deep threat, the two go hand in hand to help each other. Concentrate too much on stopping Donald Brown and that leaves the deep threat open. Keeping the North Carolina secondary honest opens it up for Donald Brown to continue to eat up yards on the ground.
The Uconn defense been a bend but not break defense. They gave up over 500 yards to Louisville but kept them out of the end zone. They had a yards per point number last season of 18 and this year it's currently at 22. Very good. Again, who they did it against will be the common argument against Uconn, but we have shown that going back and taking a look at the core talent from a year ago for both squads, that these teams figure to be evenly matched. Uconn has played a weak schedule perhaps, but they have done what's expected when you play a weak schedule....they won and are 5-0.
This isn't a play against North Carolina or for that matter, a play on Uconn because we feel they are superior. What we have here are two well coached teams that aren't beating themselves. Both teams can pound the ball. Uconn may have the better defense but the offensive edge goes to North Carolina with more weapons. Shake it all up and we have two evenly matched teams taking the field. The +7 is what attracts us here. This Uconn team is built to play the type of game that gets decided late, which is an ideal spot for a 7 point underdog.
One area of concern here, and it's a legitimate one, is Uconns performance on the road. They have only had a winning record on the road once this decade. Even last years team managed just a 2-3 road record. But the talent is there for a close game, even a win, so we'll grab the +7 here and make a 2* play on Uconn. 2* Uconn +7
2* Vanderbilt +4 over Auburn
We had a feeling we'd be playing this one a couple of weeks ago. First we are going to tell you why this play scares us. Then we are going to tell you why we're going to play it anyways.
A pointspread is an indicator of a teams value in the marketplace. If a team outperforms the indicator, it tells us they are undervalued. If a team doesn't perform well against the pointspread, it tells us they are overvalued. This game presents a classic look at overvalued and undervalued. This generally happens because a team is given credit, or not given credit, based on what they have done historically. Here we have Auburn, a team that is top 5 in wins over the last decade in college football, against Vanderbilt, a team that hasn't had a winning season in 25 years. Auburn is down a notch mostly as a result of implementing a new offense while Vandy is playing at a higher level thus far than they have in years. So it should be no surprise that Vandy is 4-0 against the spread this year while Auburn is 1-3 against the number.
The problem is that when this occurs, adjustments are made each week to correct the problem. Little by little, that early season value begins to disappear. Without these adjustments, bettors could simply load up on or against these teams each week and laugh all the way to the bank. As it stands with Vandy, we are approaching the point of diminishing returns. Interestingly enough, the oddsmakers still didn't get it right this week according to the early bettors who are usually a sharp crowd. Auburn opened a 6 point favorite but was quickly bet down to 4.
In order for their to be any value betting on Vanderbilt this season, past this game, there needs to be a correction in the market place. Is this the week of the correction? We hope not, as we are going to ride the Vandy train for one more week.
You've seen us refer to special seasons and the likes of Cinci, Rutgers and Wake Forest in recent years. One thing that all of these teams had in common was that they were all among the best teams in the nation in turnover margin at the time of their special runs. You commonly here people state that these teams "get all the breaks" or the "ball has bounced their way" but that's all nonsense. Teams that find themselves at the top of the turnover category are creating those bounces and breaks. So with Vanderbilt, it should come as no surprise that they are #1 in the country in Turnover Margin at +9. Auburn meanwhile, weighs in at -3 which is to be expected from a team implementing a new spread offense.
It won't be easy to beat Auburn with a one dimensional attack. Auburn has a fantastic defense. Vanderbilt is all about the run. They are pretty much no threat whatsoever to throw the ball downfield. Auburn held two opponents this year to 39 yards rushing. They held another to 84 yards on the ground with only LSU and Tennessee gaining any significant yardage overland but both of those teams were a threat thru the air which opened up the ground game. No such threat with Vandy and that could be a problem.
What we need here is a game that plays out similar to the Auburn Miss State game. A defensive battle where one or two big plays makes the difference. We like our chances of Vandy being the team that gets the big play to make a difference.
As with the Wake Forest and Rutgers teams, we get to say that this will probably be the biggest game Vanderbilt has ever played to date in the history of their program. They get the chance to prove they are deserving of the top 25 ranking. ESPN will be broadcasting from there all day starting with their Game Day show. For Vanderbilt, that's huge. The added emotional boost here can only be a positive. We'll ride Vandy one more week. 2* Vanderbilt +4
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Oklahoma at Baylor
Pick: Baylor +27
Oklahoma, the new #1 team in the nation, is very good. But are they, on the road, 27 points better than Baylor? Perhaps they are, but will they play that way before Texas weekend? Next week's showdown is quickly becoming a stage for who will be in the National Championship Game. It's hard to imagine Oklahoma being 100% focused on this game. Baylor is not the doormat they have been in the past. Robert Griffin is difficult to defend, as he can throw down field and he keeps the defense off balance with his abilty to run. He has some very good numbers for a freshman (seven passing TDs, five rushing TDs and no INTs). Jay Finley has found daylight out of the backfield at 8.1 yards per carry, and Baylor should be able to put some points up here. The question is how much energy is Oklahoma willing to spend with the biggest game of the year on deck? I say not enough to cover four touchdowns on the road. History agrees as the Sooners are 5-11 ATS the week before Texas the last sixteen years.Add in the fact that Baylor is well rested (and presumably well prepared) off a bye, and we have some real value on the dog here.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Dark Horse Sports
Ohio State at Wisconsin
Ohio State versus Wisconsin is one of the biggest games on the Big Ten schedule annually. Extra emphasis will be placed on the match-up this time around. Wisconsin’s Big Ten Championship hopes will suffer a death nail without a win on Saturday, due to last week’s collapse at Michigan. On Ohio State’s side, this is their first true conference test, and they will have to do it against a Wisconsin team that has never lost a home game under Brett Bielema. Look for that trend to come to an end, though, on Saturday.
Two main reasons for an Ohio State victory come to mind. Wisconsin gave up 172 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry to Michigan last week. The run defense’s task will be much tougher going up against Ohio State. How many yards rushing are they going to give up against Chris Wells and dual threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor? Look for Ohio State’s rushing offense to rack up well over 200 yards rushing, a crushing and deflating number if you’re rooting for Wisconsin.
Big reason number two for an Ohio State victory - Allan Everidge. The Wisconsin quarterback looks lost at times, out of sync, and unreliable. If this game is tight or Wisconsin is trailing, which will be the case, Everidge is not a guy I trust when it comes to pulling out a win. Wisconsin needs to take an early lead and then rely on PJ Hill and their strong running game to win games. That formula will be difficult to pull off against an elite team like Ohio State.
Take Ohio State -1.5 over Wisconsin.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Arizona State @ California
The PAC 10 bashers have had their fair share of ammunition to rip the strength of this conference and now with conference play underway, we’ll see how it shakes out for Arizona State and Cal in the pecking order of PAC 10 power. I’d bet Oregon State’s upset of USC is not the only shocker of the year in the PAC 10 and both of these teams will have a shot at the conference title and this game will keep one of these teams undefeated in the PAC 10 and diminish the chances of the loser. Both these teams have incurred a bad loss(es) this season with Cal getting trounced by Maryland on September 13 in a game which Cal undoubtedly was the more talented team and heavily favored. Arizona State lost at home in overtime to UNLV on September 13 which many excused as looking ahead to next weeks game against Georgia. However, the Bulldogs came into Tempe the following week and completely dominated the Sun Devils (27-10) and left many wondering if Dennis Erickson’s team can compete for a PAC 10 title. The task ahead for Erickson and the Sun Devils doesn’t get any easier with Saturday’s trip into Berkeley to take on Jeff Tedford’s Golden Bears.
Dennis Erickson came to Tempe and the Sun Devils displayed more toughness than in previous years under Dirk Koetter. Sr QB Rudy Carpenter stats look good (1183 yds/7 TDs/2 ints) however, when it doesn’t translate into wins, it really doesn’t matter. The Sun Devils have had a hard time rushing the ball and when teams turn one dimensional, it’s not hard for opposing defenses to stop. The Sun Devils managed only 4 yards rushing against Georgia and the rushing offense is ranked 107th in the nation. Getting tailback Keegan Herring back from a hamstring injury will offer some help but, it’s obvious the offensive line is not opening the holes needed to be successful on the ground. Defensively, the Sun Devils are giving up an average of 20 points per game and that is bound to go up as the opposition gets better. The defensive unit has not forced enough turnovers (3 interceptions) to help out the offense and change game momentum.
Cal rebounded nicely after their trip out east and defeat to the Terrapins with a 42-7 home victory over Colorado State. Year after year, the Bears have talented people to run and catch the ball and this year is no different. In a mild surprise, Tedford named Soph. Kevin Riley as his starting QB over incumbent Sr Nate Longshore. Riley has done well (7 TDs/1 int) but needs to improve upon his 56.9% completion rate. Jahvid Best and Shane Vareen are both averaging over 7.0 yards per carry and one wonders why Cal doesn’t just run the ball until someone proves they can stop them. The defensive secondary has already garnered 8 interceptions and may give Carpenter fits if the Sun Devils fall behind and are forced to throw the ball all the time.
California is a 9½ point favorite and could very well win by more but, I think a solid play for this game is under the total 55 as the Bear defense will shut down Arizona State.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Oregon @ USC
Oregon (4-1, 2-0 PAC 10) crushed Washington State last week by the score of 63-14 while racking up 507 yards of total offense – a mark that actually drops their season average to 531.6 yards per game (47.4 points per game), despite being forced to play 4 different quarterbacks due to numerous injuries. The Ducks have actually lost 5 QBs to injury over their last 9 games and that doesn’t include this season’s projected starter Nate Costa who was lost to a knee injury in fall practice. Sophomore QB Justin Roper (40 of 76 for 484 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) was expected to be back after partially tearing his MCL on September 13th but a flu bug is complicating the return so we expect 5’11” 214 sophomore QB Jeremiah Masoli (28 of 48 for 381 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT) to get the call. Masoli’s junior college transfer from City College of San Francisco, where he won the 2007 National JUCO Championship, didn’t seem big news at the time but he’s spread the ball around well enough to 6’5” 243 junior TE Ed Dickson (20 for 266 and 2 TD), 6’5” 242 senior WR Jaison Williams (20 for 188 and 3 TD), 6’1” 175 sophomore WR Jeff Maehl (18 for 205 and 2 TD), and 6’0” 171 senior WR Terrence Scott (18 for 271 and 2 TD) to keep 14th-year Coach Mike Belotti’s crew on top the Pac 10. Four seniors on the offensive line, led by 6’5” 300 C Max Unger’s 43 consecutive starts, have been strong in pass protection with 4 sacks allowed and have simply dominated on the ground by punching holes for 308.6 rush yards per game at 6.3 yards per carry with 21 rushing touchdowns scored by 8 different Oregon players. 5’10” 200 senior RB Jeremiah Johnson (65 for 440 yards and 6 TD) and 6’2” 229 junior RB LeGarrette Blount (66 for 481 yards and 8 TD) each racked 3 scores against the Cougars with Johnson slippery on the edges and Blount a physical tackle-breaker. 11 turnovers has plenty to do with the quarterback situation in Eugene and may improve as they go.
Defensive Coordinator Nick Aliotti’s squad has been very solid, led by a superb defensive line and backfield. By the numbers, the Duck’s D has allowed 100.2 rush yards per game at 2.7 yards per carry and 230.0 yards passing per game at 5.8 yards per attempt with 17 sacks among 41 tackles for loss plus 5 picks and 5 fumble recoveries. Up front, 6’4” 272 junior LDE Will Tukuafu (23 T, 9 ½ TFL, 5 S) and 6’5” 300 senior LDT Ra’Shon Harris (20 T, 4 ½ TFL, S) make up the most productive left side in college football while former high school teammate of Mark Sanchez 6’2” 248 senior RDE Nick Reed (19 T, 8 ½ TFL, 5 S) led the conference in sacks in 2007 and is the Energizer Bunny in cleats. Backer was a position of concern heading into the season with a hole on the weak side but 6’3” 216 sophomore Spencer Paysinger (43 T, 3 TFL, S) has been a terror from sideline to sideline while 6’2” 236 sophomore LB Casey Mathews (13 T, 3 TFL, S) has emerged as a critical and versatile backup to 6’4” 240 senior MLB John Bacon (11 T, S) and 6’2” 215 senior SLB Jerome Boyd (21 T, TFL). Some of Oregon’s best all-around athletes man the defensive backfield with 6’0” 205 junior LCB Jarius Byrd (27 T, INT, 16.1 yards per punt return with 87-yard TD) handling punt return duties plus 6’0” 210 senior SS Patrick Chung (31 T, 3 TFL, S, INT, 33.8 yards per kick return) and 6’0” 180 junior RCB Walter Thurmond III (22 T, 2 INT, 27.6 yards per kick return) handle share kick returns. 5’11” 201 junior FS TJ Ward (31 T, 3 TFL, S, INT) has also been solid along with nickel back 5’10” 182 Talmadge Jackson III and look out for SS Chung to be used on offense. The Ducks have been working some plays for him in practice and would love to spring him on the Trojans this week.
Southern California (2-1, 0-1 PAC 10) were rocked last week by Oregon State in our 2008 PAC 10 Lock of the Year Winner by the score of 21-27 in a game in which they were consistently thrashed along both lines by the Beavers and shredded by 5’7” RB Jacquizz Rodgers for 186 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. The Trojan defense is one of the best in the nation at 93.0 rushing yards at 2.8 yards per carry and 152.7 passing yards at 4.9 yards per attempt allowed per game but Defensive Line Coach/Defensive Coordinator Nick Holt’s crew has some serious answering to do. 6’6” 270 senior LDE Kyle Moore (11 T, 1 ½ S), 6’2” 295 junior LDT Averell Spicer (4 T, TFL), 6’5” 295 senior NT Fila Moala (9 T, 3 TFL, 1 ½ S), and 6’3” 265 sophomore RDE Everson Griffen (7 T, S) bring the size and pedigree it takes to dominate but it wasn’t until 6’3” 240 senior LB/DE Clay Mathews (17 T, 2 S) entered the game in the 3-4 alignment that USC was able to shut down Oregon State and we expect to see plenty of that approach this week by 8th-year Coach Pete Carroll (78-15), especially with the size of Ken Norton JR’s base linebackers. 6’0” 255 senior SLB Brian Cushing (20 T, 2 ½ TFL) and 6’0” 230 senior WLB Kaluka Maiava (20 T, 3 ½ TFL) can hold the point in the 3-4 but there may be issues in the middle this week. Team-leader 6’2” 260 senior MLB Rey Maualuga (19 T, INT for 48-yard TD) was injured last week and didn’t practice Tuesday. In his place will go 6’2” 255 red-shirt feshman Chris Galippo who hasn’t played since early in the 2007 season when he suffered a herniated disk in his back. Galippo has been running for quite a while but has just recently been getting contact. Against Oregon, you must stop the run and Southern California has a huge pair of safeties up to the task. 6’3” 230 junior FS Taylor Mays (19 T, 1 ½ TFL) and 6’1” 230 senior SS Kevin Ellison (21 T, INT) pack a huge wallop up the middle. Corners 6’0” 180 senior Cary Harris (11 T, TFL) and 6’2” 210 senior Josh Pinkard (4 T) have the size to match up against most receivers but the 6’5” 242 Williams will be a challenge and safeties Mays and Ellison must be targeted at the running game.
After managing just 86 rushing yard on 22 carries last week, the Trojans are determined to run the ball this week to keep Oregon’s offense on the sideline. 6’4” 285 senior LG Jeff Byers is one of the top players at his position in the nation but Southern California’s right side is pretty raw. C Kristofer O’Dowd, RG Zack Heberer, and RT Butch Lewis each measure in at 6’5” and 300 pounds but are also all sophomores that were whipped last week. If they can get some movement, Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkisian has plenty of good backs to hammer the ball. 6’0” 200 sophomore Joe McKnight (25 for 175 yards rushing, 5 for 73 yards and TD receiving), 6’0” 200 sophomore CJ Gable (16 for 110 and TD), 5’11” 215 junior Stafon Johnson (20 for 99 and TD), and 5’11” 225 junior Allen Bradford (14 for 57 and TD) each have been effective but the Trojans might be better off picking a guy and letting him break down a defense for 4 quarters. McKnight would be that guy but until he does a better job holding onto the ball, Sarkisian will likely stick with the mix approach. 6’3” 225 junior QB Mark Sanchez (61 of 93 for 737 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has not been a guy we have been excited about but the numbers are pretty good so far running an offensive attack that averages 36.0 points per game on 152.7 yards rushing at 4.9 yards per attempt and 253.7 yards passing at 7.8 yards per attempt. The 8 sacks and 24 tackles for loss allowed by his line have not made things easy for Sanchez but he has had success getting the ball deep downfield to 6’5” 220 sophomore WR Patrick Turner (10 for 149 and 2 TD), 6’1” 190 sophomore WR Damian Williams (16 for 234 and 3 TD), and 6’1” 185 sophomore Ronald Johnson (6 for 122 and 2 TD). No serious replacement has been found for 2007 Mackey Award Winner Fred Davis with 6’5” 255 junior TE Anthony McCoy (3 for 26 yards) the best of the bunch.
SELECTION: The Ducks have beaten the Trojans 5 of their last 8 meeting including a 24-17 victory in Eugene last season. We can discount a single loss by any team in college football but not when it resulted from getting schooled along both the offensive and defensive lines. Take Oregon + 16½ at the Los Angeles Coliseum.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Take Miami, OH -7 over Temple
The Owls go on the road after yet another heartbreaking loss last week, their third loss in four weeks by four points or less. The Owls simply cannot move the ball without injured quarterback Adam DiMichele and have only mustered six points in their last eight quarters. The Redhawks have not been performing this year and have dumped their last five conference games ATS. However, I think that they are due for a strong showing and that they are a bit undervalued because their schedule (Vandy, Michigan, Cincinnati) is tougher than most people realize.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Take Navy +6 over Air Force
I don’t anticipate a blowout in this meeting between the service academies and I’ll back the team that has played the much more difficult schedule to this point. The Midshipmen have covered five straight in this series and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the Navy-Air Force clash. Also, Navy is getting healthy at some key positions and is still a sensational 50-21 ATS in its last 71 road games. I think this is a game that Navy can win outright and I think they have an experience advantage over their Falcon counterparts. That, and the points, make this a great value situation.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
3* on Arizona State +9.5
Reasons why Arizona State covers the spread Saturday:
1.) California starting running back Jahvid Best is out for this game. Best has been the Bears’ best weapon all season. Best has 60 rushes for 436 yards and a 7.3 yards/carry average to go along with four touchdowns. Best is also a weapon catching passes out of the backfield. He has 13 receptions for 142 yards at nearly 11 yards/catch. California won’t be the same without their most deadly weapon.
2.) Arizona State returns more talent after beating California 31-20 last season. The Sun Devils return 13 starters while the Bears only return 12. Of those returning starters, Arizona State has more talent as a whole.
3.) ASU is coming off a bye week pissed off. The Sun Devils have had two weeks to think about their losses to UNLV and Georgia and they’ll come out with more passion than the Bears will be ready for. Arizona State has had two weeks to game plan for the Bears, giving them a big advantage in the scheme of the game. Not having to prepare for running back Jahvid Best will be huge.
4.) The time of year. Arizona State has played their best ball at this time of year, while California has struggled. ASU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 October games. California is 0-4 ATS in their last four games played in October. The Golden Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. California won’t be able to rely on their running game this week, putting more pressure on QB Kevin Riley to produce. The Sun Devils have a big advantage under center with Rudy Carpenter. He has thrown for 1,183 yards and 7 touchdowns while completing over 69% of his passes. The Sun Devils will be more efficient on offense and easily stay within the number Saturday, perhaps pulling off the upset. Bet Arizona State on the road.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
NC State +9 1/2 (5 units)
South Carolina +3 (5 units)
Vandy +4 1/2 (5 units)
Nebraska +10 1/2 (5 units)
Colorado +13 1/2 (5 units)
San Diego St +24 (5 units)
Ohio St -2 (5 units)
Washington U +22 (5 units)
Washington State +17 (5 units)
Minn-Indiana Over 58 (5 units)
Oklahoma-Baylor Over 62 1/2 (5 units)
Tulane-Army Over 41 1/2 (5 units)
K State-Texas Tech Over 66 (5 units)
Cal-Arizona State Over 55 (5 units)
AF-Navy Over 52 1/2 (5 units)
Toledo-Ball State Over 65 (5 units)
Tulsa-Rice Under 80 (5 units)
UCLA-Washington State Over 56 1/2 (5 units)
Kentucky +16 1/2 (5 units)
Texas A&m +25 (5 units)
Rice +16 (5 units)
Re: Saturday Service Plays
NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3
Game 311-312: Cincinnati at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 86.452; Marshall 86.577
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+3 1/2); Over
Game 313-314: BYU at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 104.967; Utah State 69.852
Dunkel Line: BYU by 35; 54
Vegas Line: BYU by 28; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-28); Under
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 4
Game 315-316: Boston College at NC State
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 93.923; NC State 86.456
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 7 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Boston College by 9; 41
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+9); Under
Game 317-318: Rutgers at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 79.298; West Virginia 96.765
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 17 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 14; 45
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-14); Over
Game 319-320: Penn State at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 106.784; Purdue 90.445
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 16; 62
Vegas Line: Penn State by 13 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-13 1/2); Over
Game 321-322: Iowa at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 90.347; Michigan State 100.562
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 10; 48
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-7 1/2); Over
Game 323-324: Indiana at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 82.872; Minnesota 92.288
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 58
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Over
Game 325-326: Maryland at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 97.643; Virginia 80.350
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 17; 40
Vegas Line: Maryland by 13 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-13 1/2); Under
Game 327-328: Connecticut at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 96.123; North Carolina 99.437
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 3; 42
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 7; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+7); Under
Game 329-330: South Carolina at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 90.957; Mississippi 96.763
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 6; 47
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-2); Over
Game 331-332: Texas Tech at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 100.717; Kansas State 97.591
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 3; 62
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 7 1/2; 66
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+7 1/2); Under
Game 333-334: Kansas at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 98.808; Iowa State 89.281
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 9 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Kansas by 13; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+13); Over
Game 335-336: Duke at Georgia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 88.418; Georgia Tech 98.075
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 9 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 14 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+14 1/2); Over
Game 337-338: Auburn at Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 95.703; Vanderbilt 96.927
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Auburn by 4; 37
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+4); Over
Game 339-340: UNLV at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 76.130; Colorado State 80.647
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 4 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-2); Over
Game 341-342: Ohio at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 73.472; Western Michigan 76.286
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 3; 53
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 5 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+5 1/2); Over
Game 343-344: Stanford at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 89.014; Notre Dame 92.091
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 3; 52
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+7); Over
Game 345-346: Army at Tulane
Dunkel Ratings: Army 64.801; Tulane 80.146
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 15 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Tulane by 19 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Army (+19 1/2); Under
Game 347-348: Temple at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 69.437; Miami (OH) 74.422
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 5; 36
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 7; 40
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+7); Under
Game 349-350: Illinois at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 93.417; Michigan 93.241
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Michigan by 3; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+3); Over
Game 351-352: Missouri at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 111.236; Nebraska 94.567
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 17; 75
Vegas Line: Missouri by 10 1/2; 69 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-10 1/2); Over
Game 353-354: Texas at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 108.978; Colorado 92.414
Dunkel Line: Texas by 16 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Texas by 13 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-13 1/2); Over
Game 355-356: Florida State at Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 95.534; Miami (FL) 93.423
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+2 1/2); Under
Game 357-358: Arizona State at California
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 88.281; California 105.114
Dunkel Line: California by 17; 60
Vegas Line: California by 9 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-9 1/2); Over
Game 359-360: Florida at Arkansas
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 108.334; Arkansas 81.163
Dunkel Line: Florida by 27; 63
Vegas Line: Florida by 24 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-24 12); Over
Game 361-362: Kentucky at Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 97.928; Alabama 111.390
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 13 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Alabama by 16 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+16 1/2); Under
Game 363-364: SMU at Central Florida
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 64.842; Central Florida 82.880
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 18; 64
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 14; 56
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-14); Over
Game 365-366: Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 60.709; Bowling Green 83.765
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 23; 58
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 20 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-20 1/2); Over
Game 367-368: Navy at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 88.433; Air Force 91.563
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 3; 56
Vegas Line: Air Force by 6; 52
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+6); Over
Game 369-370: Nevada at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 86.752; Idaho 59.003
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 28; 64
Vegas Line: Nevada by 24; 68
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-24); Under
Game 371-372: San Diego State at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 72.959; TCU 102.963
Dunkel Line: TCU by 30; 42
Vegas Line: TCU by 24 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-24 1/2); Under
Game 373-374: Washington State at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 69.336; UCLA 90.521
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 21; 52
Vegas Line: UCLA by 17; 56
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-17); Under
Game 375-376: Washington at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 84.413; Arizona 101.185
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona by 21 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+21 1/2); Over
Game 377-378: Northern Illinois at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 81.489; Tennessee 95.661
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 14; 49
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 16; 45
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+16); Over
Game 379-380: Ball State at Toledo
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 84.350; Toledo 78.664
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 6; 70
Vegas Line: Ball State by 7 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+7 1/2); Over
Game 381-382: Akron at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 80.178; Kent State 71.141
Dunkel Line: Akron by 9; 55
Vegas Line: Akron by 3 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-3 1/2); Over
Game 383-384: UTEP at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 78.825; Southern Mississippi 81.776
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 3; 66
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 7 1/2; 62
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+7 1/2); Over
Game 385-386: Oklahoma at Baylor
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 114.829; Baylor 83.473
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 31; 69
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 26 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-26 1/2); Over
Game 387-388: Texas A&M at Oklahoma State
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 79.967; Oklahoma State 107.069
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 27; 57
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 24 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-24 1/2); Under
Game 389-390: Ohio State at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 102.745; Wisconsin 98.605
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 1 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-1 1/2); Under
Game 391-392: Rice at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 81.688; Tulsa 101.438
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 20; 86
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 15; 80 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-15); Over
Game 393-394: Oregon at USC
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 104.033; USC 119.615
Dunkel Line: USC by 15 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: USC by 16 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+16 1/2); Under
Game 395-396: Wyoming at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 74.715; New Mexico 85.865
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 11; 39
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 12; 43
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+12); Under
Game 397-398: Hawaii at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 75.231; Fresno State 100.762
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 25 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 22; 54
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-22); Over
Game 399-400: Western Kentucky at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 72.098; Virginia Tech 99.485
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 27; 38
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 28; 42
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+28); Under
Game 401-402: UL-Lafayette at UL-Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 75.864; UL-Monroe 72.756
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 3; 47
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 2 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-2 1/2); Under
Game 403-404: Florida International at North Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 62.624; North Texas 59.622
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Florida International by 6 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (+6 1/2); Under
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Oklahoma Sooners vs Baylor Bears
Take the Baylor Bears +27
Baylor always seems to come up with that one big surprise upset of the year. Now, I'm not sure this is it, but this game does have the ingredients for an Oklahoma let-down.
Exhibit #1 is the newly found top ranking in the nation. It's been well established as a curse of sorts, as new #1's were toppled on a weekly basis in 2007 and we've already seen two #1's toppled here in 2008 (Georgia & USC). The dangerous thing for Oklahoma fans is really the pending shootout with Texas which takes place next week, leaving this game in a classic "Look-ahead" scenario. It's always fashionable to claim your team is not looking ahead, as Bob Stoops has said, re-assuring the Sooner faithful that they are indeed taking the Bears seriously. However, what Stoops says and what is in the minds and hearts of college boys is two different things.
I won't be as bold to call for an upset, but my money says that Baylor puts a scare into Sooner ans - at least through 3 quarters.
Oklahoma 37, Baylor 20
Take Baylor +27