Monday Service Plays

Monday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Under

Baltimore is 9-4-3 UNDER their last 17 September games and they are 10-4 UNDER after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Ravens are 23-11-4 UNDER after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their last game. Pittsburgh is 5-1 UNDER after scoring less than 15 points in their last game and they are are 5-1 UNDER after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their last game. The Steelers are 5-2-1 UNDER after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER'

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Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections

SURE THING BASEBALL WINNER
Chicago White Sox w/Floyd -230

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Fairway Jay

10* Steelers
10* Ravens/Steelers Under

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Brandon Lang

15 Dime 6-point Teaser - Ravens and Under

(Let's take the Ravens up to +11 and take the total up to 40 and go under)

FREE - Under Ravens/Steelers

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Sixth Sense Sports

Not a Best bet !!

PITTSBURGH –5.5 Baltimore 33.5

Baltimore dominated Cleveland last week in their 28-10 win, out gaining Cleveland 4.3yppl to 3.0yppl. They allowed Cleveland just 2.3yps, while throwing for 6.1yps themselves. Pittsburgh was beaten pretty badly at Philadelphia, getting out gained 4.1yppl to 3.0yppl. Neither team is doing much on offense this year and playing very strong defense. Baltimore averages just 5.1yps against 6.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl overall. They allow just 2.7yps against 4.1yps and 3.0yppl against 3.9yppl. Pittsburgh averages just 5.2yps against 6.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.3yppl but allows just 2.8ypr against 3.7ypr, 4.5yps against 5.2yps and 3.9yppl against 4.7yppl. Willie Parker will miss this game and Ben Roethlisberger should play but isn’t entirely healthy. In the Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh is now 21-0 SU during the regular season when they are favored by five points or more at home. Eighteen of those twenty one games produced wins of nine points or more, with the exception of a one point win over Baltimore a few years ago, a three point win over Miami in the mud game last year and a three point win over Cleveland that they completely dominated but kick returns and an interception return kept Cleveland in the game. They are 16-4-1 ATS during that span. In other words, when they are supposed to win, they do so in convincing fashion. Baltimore qualifies in a 39-12-3 situation. Numbers favor Baltimore by 1.5 points and predict about 33 points. I would consider Baltimore but the team trend on Pittsburgh is worth noting and this will be the first road start for Flacco, the starting quarterback for Baltimore and I’m not sure what that will bring for the Ravens. PITTSBURGH 17 BALTIMORE 16

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Pointwise

PITTSBURGH 31 - Baltimore 13 - First RG for the Ravens, who have opened at 2-0, thanks to a rebirth of its once feared "D". As a matter of fact, they allowed 29.3 ppg in their final ten '07 games. But stat edges in '08: 42-19 in FDs;631-323 in yds. No early line here, as Ben's throwing hand was injured vs the Eagles, altho it doesn't appear serious. And check Parker coming from 243 RYs the first 2 wks, to just 20 yds on 13 carries vs Philly. A year ago, Pitt also hosted a Monday Nighter vs the Ravens: 38-7 romp (22-pt cover). Ravens are just 2-7 ATS as Monday RDs, while Steelers are 17-6 ATS as Monday HFs. Settles it.


THE GOLD SHEET NFL

KEY RELEASE

PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore

*PITTSBURGH 34 - Baltimore 13—Kudos to Joe Flacco for his hurricane-aided 2-0 start. But initial road games are rarely easy for rookie QBs (ask Atlanta’s Matt Ryan). Trying to decipher the confusing Steelers’ zone blitzes, account for their mobile quartet of LBs, and keep an eye on active SS Troy Polamalu figures to be a major challenge for tall Baltimore rookie Flacco (who, by the way, left Pitt to transfer to Delaware!) Moreover, you can expect a special effort from the Pittsburgh OL after it gave up nine sacks in last week’s loss at Philly. Steelers “over” 42-14-1 at Heinz since 2001! CABLE TV—ESPN (07-PITT 38-Balt. 7...P.14-5 P.39/90 B.14/64 P.14/21/1/201 B.16/31/1/40 P.0 B.3) (07-BALT. 27-Pitt 21...B.21-14 B.40/180 P.19/46 P.16/31/2/218 B.16/27/0/154 B.1 P.1) (07-PITTSBURGH -9 38-7, BALTIMORE +3 27-21...SR: Pittsburgh 15-10)


Erik Scheponik

Ravens @Steelers Under The Total

No line has been posted on this game yet due to the uncertain status of Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger who suffered a hand injury against Philadelphia on Sunday. Big Ben and the Black and Gold offense were rendered surprisingly ineffective at Philly as they could muster only 6 points on 180 yards. They struggled mightily with Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jim Johnson’s blitz packages and it won’t be any easier here against Rex Ryan’s attacking defense. However, Pittsburgh can afford to be more patient with the running game here, knowing that the Ravens offense is far less capable than Donovan McNabb and the Eagles. Now the line will certainly adjust downward if Byron Leftwich is under center instead of Roethlisberger, but that will create a more cautious and probably punchless Pittsburgh attack, as Leftwich will be a sitting duck for Baltimore. I expect Pittsburgh to attempt to win this game with its defense, more worried about field position than going up top with the passing game. The Ravens will likely do the same thing, as subjecting Joe Flacco to Dick Lebeau’s blitz packages any more than they have to just wouldn’t be fair at this point of the rookie’s career. The Ravens lack weapons on the outside, but have a very deep backfield with Willis McGahee, Le’Ron Mclain, and Ray Rice. With those three healthy, they won’t mind as much as some teams repeatedly plunging it into the teeth of the Pittsburgh defense. The Baltimore defense looks as strong as ever, as they’ve allowed only 333 yards TOTAL in their two games thus far. As I said last week, until they wear down in December, I expect them to be top 5 on that side of the ball. Last week I recommended Baltimore Under in these pages. It was a winner at the opening price, but a loser if you bet it on Sunday. One of Baltimore’s scores was a defensive touchdown. They face a much stiffer defense this week, and I expect this to be a smashmouth type affair. Both teams will run and run some more vs. defenses that simply have not been run on in years. Neither team wants to play from behind thus neither will want to make the first mistake. I expect the number to be somewhere around 36 with Rothelisberger starting, and most likely 33.5 or 34 if he’s not. Either way, the call is Under as the first one to 17 may just be the winner here.


WINNING POINTS

*Pittsburgh over Baltimore by 14
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (check status) is taking a heavy pounding in every game as his offensive line gets its act together. Baltimore’s defense is playing well again, but this is a real tough venue and spot for Ravens’ rookie quarterback Joe Flacco.The Ravens’ offensive line also is in a state of transition and could have problems handling the crowd noise and Pittsburgh’s defensive team speed. The Steelers’ 3-4 defense is tough to run on. So Flacco will need to make plays.The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine away games, 1-4 ATS as a road ‘dog. PITTSBURGH 27-13.


Marc Lawrence Playbook

5* BEST BET

PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 17
The 2nd place Steelers host the 1st place Ravens in this battle of AFC Central Division rivals under the Monday Night lights in a showdown of the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked defenses. When the Steelers come out of the tunnel they will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with revenge. On the other side of the coin, Baltimore is 1-6 SU and ATS on Mondays against division rivals when not taking double-digits. With Marc’s PROVE IT ALL NIGHT theory (see page 2) also at work here, look for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh is off a loss. Our taste buds are set. Pass the ketchup.

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Drew Gordon

Detroit +190 at CHI. WHITE SOX 

Only one way to go here and that's clearly the Tigers, as they present solid value in this spot, AND have the pitching match up necessary to get it done. Of course, the media will do its best job to convince you that there's no way in hell Guillen and his boys could possibly lose this "must-win" game, however this ain't a fairytale, and there's no happy ending for the White Sox today!

First off, do you really trust Gavin Floyd in this high-pressure spot, on just 3 days rest? The Sox have lost 3 of his last 4 starts, allowing 4 runs or more in each one of those losses! Not only that, but the last time the Tigers saw him, they pounded him for 5 runs on 8 hits over just 4 innings August 5th! In other words, backing Floyd at this price, on short rest, is foolhardy at best.

While he's still not at the level we remember from years past, good ol' Freddy Garcia remains dangerous in this spot, against his former team no less. True, he got roughed up against the Royals in his last start, but let's not forget he tossed 5 scoreless at Texas in his only road start of the season. Obvioulsy he'll be highly motivated facing his former club, and I expect he'll deliver today.

Finally, its no secret the White Sox come into this game stumbling, going just 1-5 over their last 6 games. The Tigers meanwhile have 3 of their last 4, with the only loss coming after they blew a 5-run lead at Tampa Bay yesterday. I know full well Detroit has struggled on the road of late, but make no mistake, they're not going to US Cellular to lay down like dogs. The Tigers have the pitching match up, are playing better baseball of late, and present tremendous value in this spot with a majority of the public all over the White Sox.

Small play on Detroit behind Garcia over the Chicago White Sox and Floyd in this MLB match up.

1♦ DETROIT

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Karl Garrett

Baltimore at PITTSBURGH

Tonight in the NFL, I am going against the grain, and playing the OVER in the Baltimore-Pittsburgh contest.

This total is ridiculously LOW when you consider the fact that OVER has actually come through the last 3 times these teams have played, and the OVER is on a 42-14-1 run at Heinz Field since the late 2001 campaign!

You have a rookie QB in Joe Flacco, and you just know he is capable of making a bad decision or two in this rowdy Monday night setting, which means you may have a few short-field scores that you have to take into account.

The Steelers have played UNDER in their last pair of games, but they were both on the road. Back at home where the OVER has been the predominant play, the G-Man will stick with the trends, and play tonight's game to also head OVER the posted price.

3♦ OVER

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SPORTS ADVISORS

Baltimore (2-0 SU and ATS) at Pittsburgh (2-1, 1-2 ATS)

The surprising Ravens try to make it three in a row to open the season as they travel to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers in an AFC North showdown.

Baltimore has opened with home wins over Cincinnati in Week 1 (17-10 as one-point ‘dogs) and Cleveland in Week 3 (28-10 as one-point favorites), while a Week 2 game at the Texans postponed because of Hurricane Ike. As usual, it’s the defense doing the damage for the Ravens, who lead the NFL in total defense at 161.5 yards per game allowed. Pittsburgh has the second stingiest defense, giving up 234 ypg.

The Steelers got knocked around at Philadelphia last week, losing 15-6 as 3½-point ‘dogs. QB Ben Roethlisberger was sacked eight times and left with a hand injury in the fourth quarter but is scheduled to be in the lineup tonight. However, RB Willie Parker, who sprained his knee against the Eagles, will not play, leaving the ball-carrying duties in the hands of rookie Rashard Mendenhall.

Baltimore has won four of the last five SU and ATS against the Steelers and six of the last nine SU and ATS dating back to 2003. However, the home team is 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) in the last 10 series clashes, with the host winning and cashing in both battles last year. That includes the Steelers’ 38-7 rout at home as a 9½-point favorite in 2007.

The Ravens are just 1-5 (3-3 ATS) on the road in Monday Night Football, while Pittsburgh is an astounding 22-5 (19-8 ATS) in the Steel City on Mondays and 35-22 (34-22-1 ATS) overall in this showcase contest. However, the Steelers have failed to cash in four of their last five on Monday.

Baltimore is 9-3 ATS in Week 4 the last 12 seasons, but otherwise the Ravens are on pointspread slides of 5-14 overall, 6-21 on the road, 4-11 against the AFC and 2-5 in September. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is only 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against the AFC, but the Steelers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 at Heinz Field and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a non-cover.

The under is 9-4-3 in the Ravens’ last 16 September games, but otherwise the over is on runs for Baltimore of 7-2 overall, 7-2-1 against AFC North foes, 7-1 on Mondays and 5-1 against teams with a winning record. For Pittsburgh, the over is on runs of 41-15-2 at home, 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the AFC and 13-3-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.

Finally, the over is 10-4 in the last 14 series clashes between these rivals, including 6-1 in Pittsburgh. So far this season, the over is 4-0 in the Monday night spotlight.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Detroit (74-87) at Chicago White Sox (87-74)

The White Sox send right-hander Gavin Floyd (16-8, 3.91 ERA) to the hill at U.S. Cellular Field in a must-win makeup game against the Tigers and veteran hurler Freddy Garcia (1-1, 4.50), who is making just his third start of the season.

Chicago entered Sunday trailing Minnesota by a half-game in the A.L. Central standings and scored a 5-1 victory over the Indians while the Twins blanked the Royals 6-0, forcing this makeup game to be played. The White Sox must beat the Tigers to force a one-game playoff in Chicago against the Twins on Tuesday to decide an A.L. Central champion.

Chicago leads the season series against Detroit 11-6, and they have won six of the last eight overall, including six of the last seven in Chicago.

The White Sox are on runs of 40-18 at home, 42-19 against teams with a losing record, 16-7 in Floyd’s last 23 starts and 14-3 in his last 17 at U.S. Cellular. Meanwhile, the Tigers had a three-game winning streak snapped with Sunday’s 8-7 home loss to Tampa Bay, and they’re on slides of 4-13 overall, 1-7 on the road, 0-8 against division rivals and 3-9 against right-handed starters.

Chicago has lost three of Floyd’s last four starts, and on Thursday the right-hander gave up four runs on 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings but got a no-decision in a 7-6 loss in Minnesota. Floyd has been tough in front of the home fans, going 9-3 with a 3.66 ERA in 16 starts this year. He is also 3-0 with a 3.45 ERA in eight career starts against the Tigers, but got a no-decision against them back on Aug. 5 when he allowed five runs on eight hits in four innings, but his offense saved him with a 10-8 victory.

Garcia last pitched on Tuesday at home when he allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings of a 5-0 loss to the Royals. The veteran right-hander, who won three games for the White Sox during their 2005 postseason run, including getting the victory in Game 4 of the World Series as Chicago claimed the championship, is 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA in 11-career starts against his former team.

For Detroit, the over is on runs of 7-3 on the road, 6-2 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 on the road against teams with a winning mark. For Chicago, the over is on runs of 4-2 at home, 9-3-1 with Floyd on the mound and 5-0 in his last five at U.S. Cellular. However, the under is 19-8 in the last 27 series meetings between these rivals in Chicago and 5-2 in Floyd’s last seven starts against Detroit.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO WHITE SOX

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

NFL EARLY RELEASE FOR MON
PITTSBURGH -5

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Tony Karpinski

5* BEST BET

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Steelers -5

The Steelers are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS at home on Mondays since 1990, including 6-0 SU and ATS with revenge.

The Steelers are coming off a tough 15-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Steelers allowed 9 sacks against the Eagles and I expect the offensive line to play much better tonight. The Steelers have all week to make the necessary corrections to give quarterback Ben Roethlisberger time to throw the ball. The Steelers 2nd ranked defense is allowing 12.7 points per game and has intercepted six passes. They will put a lot of pressure on Ravens rookie QB.

The Ravens offense has been anemic so far this season. The Ravens are second to last in passing averaging just 125 yards per game. Flacco has one of the lowest quarterback rating at 55.7. He has thrown for just 258 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Look for the Ravens to drop to 1-7 ATS as a guest in this series when Pittsburgh is off a loss.

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Jim Feist

DET Tigers / CHW White Sox
Take White Sox -1.5

The Tigers have no interest in playing this game, as they are on vacation after it's over. The White Sox want to go to the playoffs and would force a one-game playoff with the Twins Tuesday with a win here. This is a fine offense, with Paul Konerko hitting his fourth homer in three games and Jermaine Dye adding a two-run single to lead the White Sox over the Indians 5-1 Sunday, keeping Chicago alive in the AL Central. This offense is 6th in runs scored in the AL. Detroit has had pitching problems all season and starter Freddie Garcia makes only his third start. In 10 innings he's allowed 3 homers! The home fans will be into this one, as well, screaming for a one-sided rout. The White Sox can't take any chances, as if they lose, the season is over. Play the White Sox on the run line.

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LT Profits

Detroit Tigers +200

The Chicago White Sox have done their best to hand the American League Central Division title to the Minnesota Twins over this past week, and we look for them to finally complete that task by choking in this make-up game vs. the Detroit Tigers.

The White Sox began this past week with a 2.5 game lead over the Twins, but they were promptly swept in Minnesota to fall into second place, and then Chicago failed to take advantage of the unexpected weekend struggles the Twins had with he Kansas City Royals by losing two out of three to the Cleveland Indians, making this make-up necessary.

The Sox will be facing a familiar face in Detroit starter Freddie Garcia, and his familiarity with the White Sox lineup should work against Chicago, as the pitcher generally has the advantage in these situations. Garcia made two September starts for the Tigers, with one good and one bad outing. We feel that the motivation of knocking out his old team work to his advantage here.

Now Gavin Floyd has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season with his 16-8 record. That said, Floyd has just one Quality Start in his last five outings, and he was hit hard for five earned runs and eight hits while lasting just four innings the last time he faced the Tigers. Also, he is certainly unproven in pressure situations like this.

Given all of this, we simply cannot pass up taking the Tigers at two to one odds here.

Pick: Tigers +200

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Michael Cannon

Baltimore at PITTSBURGH 

Take the under tonight between the Ravens and Steelers.

It’s hard to imagine there being many points scored in this game as we have two of the better defenses in the NFL taking the field.

Neither offense has done much either, and with Willie Parker injured for tonight’s game the Steelers will start rookie Rashard Mendenhall.  Nobody runs on the Ravens and I doubt you’ll see a rookie doing so in his first NFL start.

Baltimore comes into this game 2-0, but it’s because of the defense, which has shut down both Cleveland and Cincinnati.

Joe Flacco is a rookie quarterback and I don’t expect him to light up the scoreboard on the road against this Steelers defense.

Bottom line is this game has all the makings of a low-scoring final, so put me down for a play on the under.

3♦ UNDER

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Hiesman Trophy Club

10* STEELERS

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Sportsbettingstats

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The Steelers come into this game after losing to the Philadelphia Eagles 15-6, while the Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns 28-10. This is a HUGE AFC North match up, as first place in the division is at stake. The Steelers are led by Ben Roethlisberger (447 yds 3 TD 1 INT) and his main targets are Hines Ward (15 rec 169 yds 3 TD) and Santonio Holmes (10 rec 145 yds). The Steelers rushing attack will be led by backup RB Rashard Mendenhall (28 yds), as starting RB Willie Parker, 8th in the league in rushing yards, is out for the game with a sprained knee. The Ravens are led by rookie QB Joe Flacco (258 0 TD 2 INT) and his main targets are Derrick Mason (8 rec 86) and TE Todd Heap (3 rec 37 yds). The Ravens rushing attack is led by FB Le'Ron McClain (152 yds 2 TD).

Staff Pick: This game promises to be an old-fashioned smash mouth defensive game with not a lot of scoring. Ravens QB Flacco has not put up great numbers, but he has managed the offense well and has not made many rookie mistakes. Roethlisberger will be facing a Ravens D that is ranked #1 in the NFL. How good is the Ravens D? Well, they are giving up an average of only 70 rushing yards per game and 91.5 passing yards per game. The Steelers D is also legit ranked 2nd and especially tough against the run. The weak link on the Steelers is their offensive line, which was seen last week when they gave up 9 sacks to the Eagles. Roethlisberger is banged up, Parker is out with an injury, and the Steelers O line is weak and facing a ferocious Ravens D. However, the Steelers face a rookie QB, who is 2-0 in his first two starts but has played against weak defenses of the Browns and the Bengals. Flacco can prove he is for real if he can deal with the tough Steelers D. Can the Steelers offense rebound and score points without their leading RB? For the Steelers to be successful their O line has to protect Big Ben and backup RB Rashard Mendenhall has to pick up some yards, which is no easy task against the Ravens D. Look for a low scoring game, but for the Ravens to come out and dominate the Steelers on defense and score just enough to win this game.

Ravens 13 Steelers 10

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Jeff Benton

I’m not going to suggest that Detroit has any kind of advantage in this game, and in fact it’s likely that the Tigers – arguably the most disappointing team in baseball this year – are pissed that they have to play this game today. However, all the pressure in the world today is on the White Sox, including starting pitcher Gavin Floyd. If Chicago comes through today, it faces the Twins in a one-game playoff for the A.L. Central crown on Tuesday; a loss, and Ozzie Guillen’s troops head home for the winter.

Well, considering the White Sox had lost five straight games before finally winning Sunday, it’s safe to say these Pale Hose aren’t handling the pressure all that well. Also, in Floyd’s most important start of the season Thursday at the Twins, he got rocked for four runs on 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings, blowing most of a 6-1 lead as Chicago fell, 7-6. If the young hurler struggled that much in that pressure start, are you confident he’s going to be able to control the butterflies in the biggest game of his life? I’m not, and I doubt Floyd himself is all that confident.

Bottom line: The Tigers certainly have the talent to win this game and spoil a division rival’s season, so we’ll roll the dice that Detroit will play with pride and grab this incredibly inflated number.

1♦ DETROIT TIGERS

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Matt Rivers

For Monday take a shot with the Tigers.

Chicago is obviously the team that cares about this game and has to win it if they want to play the one game playoff with Minnesota on Tuesday, unlike the Tigers who are going home either way after the pathetic season, but at this price I'm fine with Jim Leyland's squad.

Gavin Floyd has been very good and clearly superior when compared to Freddy Garcia who is still just trying to comeback. It is impossible to trust Garcia all that much as he could get destroyed in this spot at US Cellular by Thome, Konerko, Dye and the Sox but the Tigers have some big boppers as well that can match the ChiSox run for run. Sheffield, Ordonez, Granderson, Thames and others can help put up a five spot in any inning against anybody.

The season has been beyond disappointing for today's visitors but in this spot where they will be as loose as can be, ala the Marlins and Indians over this past weekend I can totally see the Sox wind up choking like dogs which they certainly are capable of.

Chicago just lost five straight games before finally winning on Sunday. This team is not very good right now and is extremely vulnerable here so at this price what the hey!

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