Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

Johnny Guild

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

The Jet's and Brett Favre's days of old record against the Chargers looks exceptionally good. New York is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus San Diego, 4-1 ATS last five in San Diego and the road team has won the last three meetings. Into the bargain, Jets are 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread in the last three meetings in San Diego and Brett Favre is 5-0 in his career against the Chargers. But, San Diego currently is 8-3 in their last 11 games, 9-1-1 ATS and is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 at home and they haven’t played the Jets since, 2005

The Chargers have the talent to defeat Farve and crew and are fuming following last week bad call, costing them the game to the Broncos. The Chargers' offense won’t have difficulty scoring against the Jets, but do believe the Jets will. Go with San Diego at home in a Monday night rumble. NY Jets are just 5-14 in their last 19 games, 2-8 in their last 10 on the road

San Diego Chargers -8.5

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GINA

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Look for the Carolina Panthers potent ground attack to give the Atlanta Falcons a heap of problems in Carolina. Panthers’ Rookie running back Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams WILL bulldoze the Falcons’ defense, ranked 23rd overall against the run.

Carolina Panthers -7


Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Washington Redskins are a decent team, but won't be able to contain Romo and his arsenal of weapons. Dallas is the superior team and perhaps presently the best in the NFL should win this battle at home easily. The Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings at Texas Stadium.

Dallas Cowboys -11

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JB's Computer Picks

Cincinnati Bengals -3½
Jacksonville Jaguars -7½
Denver Broncos -9½
Carolina Panthers -7
New York Jets -2
New Orleans Saints -5½
Green Bay Packers +1
Tennessee Titans -3 * *
San Diego Chargers -7½
Buffalo Bills -8
Dallas Cowboys -11
Philadelphia Eagles  -3
Pittsburgh Steelers -6

Best Bet **

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K & B SPORTS

This is a big game early in the season for both teams from the NFL East as the Cowboys are 3-0 and the Redskins are 2-1. The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight regular season games. And the Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven regular season games. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in regular season games against the Cowboys since 2006.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Big Al

Baltimore v Toronto
Pick:Orioles

At 1:35pm our complimentary selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. There isn't much that the Orioles can salvage from this dreadful season, but perhaps there is one last (albeit faint) silver lining in the fact that their #1 starter, Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn't started in a month due to injury, threw a 50-pitch bullpen session recently and felt no pain thereafter, thus putting him in position to start this last game of the season for his team. If Guthrie has a quality outing in the last game in front of the home fans, there may be at least some cause for optimism heading into the offseason. After all, the trade that sent lefthanded ace Erik Bedard to the Mariners in exchange for five of Seattle's top young players is now looking like one of the best offseason moves that Baltimore has ever made. Bedard only threw 81 innings in his injury-plagued season, and one of the five players obtained was an All Star (reliever George Sherrill) and another (Adam Jones) is now looking like he will be a fixture in the O's outfield for a long, long time. If Guthrie can get a win this afternoon, he would get to .500 on the season (11-11) and that, combined with his excellent ERA of 3.57, would be quite an achievement on a team that has failed to win 70 games. Young Toronto righthander Jesse Litsch has had a great season and should also be in the Jays rotation in '09, but he has really struggled on the road. Away from Toronto the 23-year-old is 5-6 with an ERA of 4.57. Take the Orioles.

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Jeff Hochman

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles    
Play: Under   

Both starters (Jessie Litsch & Jeremy Guthrie) with an ERA in the mid 3 range is very good, especially in the AL. Day game after a night game adds to the handicapping mix as well. Go under 9.5 runs!

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Sunshine Forecast

1* New York Jets -1
1* Kansas City Chiefs +9 1/2


MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

3* Houston
4* Cleveland
5* Pittsburgh


NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP NFL TOTALS

3* Browns/Bengals Over 42'
3* Falcons/Panthers Under 39'
3* Broncos/Chiefs Over 46'
2* Texans/Jaguars Under 40
2* Vikings/Titans Under 37


Pointwise

2--San Diego over OAKLAND 31-17
3--Cleveland (+) over CINCINNATI 17-16
4--Buffalo over ST. LOUIS 34-13
5--CHICAGO (+) over Philadelphia 20-17
5--Carolina over ATLANTA 24-10


CKO

10* TAMPA BAY over Green Bay Well, maybe replacing Brett Favre isn’t going to be as easy as it first seemed for Aaron Rodgers, who faced some real pressure for the first time as a starter last week against Dallas, and couldn’t do much damage until outcome was decided. It isn’t helping Rodgers that Green Bay infantry at less than 100% these days with Ryan Grant slightly compromised by a sore hamstring. Things won’t get any easier at loud and distracting Raymond James Stadium, where d.c. Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 schemes have frustrated many accomplished QBs (much less one making only 4th career start). Moreover, must note the leadership rejuvenated vet QB Brian Griese (67 pass attempts at Chicago!) now providing for Buc offense. Greater accumulation of edges rests with T.B., which usually takes care of business as home chalk (7-2 last 9 in role).Late Score Forecast:*TAMPA BAY 30 - Green Bay 17

TOTALS: OVER (45½) in the Denver-Kansas City game—Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Denver offense (38 ppg) lighting things up with new spread attack; Broncos have played three straight “overs”...UNDER (44½) in the Cleveland-Cincinnati game—Cleveland (9 ppg) hurting at receiver; Browns 8-0-1 “under” last nine games.


THE GOLD SHEET NFL

KEY RELEASES

CAROLINA by 18 over Atlanta
PITTSBURGH by 21 over Baltimore (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the Buffalo-St. Louis game


Power Plays

4* Carolina


Power Sweep

4* Tennessee
3* Cleveland/Cincy OVER
2* Houston (+)
2* San Francisco (+)

NFL Totals (10-5 so far)
3* Cleveland/Cincy OVER
3* Atlanta/Carolina UNDER
3* Denver/Kansas City OVER
2* Houston/Jacksonville UNDER
2* Minnesota/Tennessee UNDER

Power Rating Play--TENNESSEE


Red Sheet

CAROLINA 27 - Atlanta 10


WINNING POINTS

BEST BET

San Francisco over *New Orleans by 14
Buffalo over *St. Louis by 24

PREFERRED

*Carolina over Atlanta by 17
*Tennessee over Minnesota by 13


LOGICAL APPROACH

SELECTION OF THE WEEK: CAROLINA - 7

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THE SPORTS MEMO

MARTY OTTO
MINNESOTA AT TENNESSEE -3 O/U 36
Recommendation: Tennessee

The Titans are looking like the class of the AFC South right now and are asked to lay just three points at home against the Vikings? We’ll pick this one off early. Since Vince Young went down we have seen an increase in the passing game with Kerry Collins. It hasn’t been a huge difference statistically but Collins does a much better job in the short to intermediate touch routes that Young struggled so much with. He is better at reading defenses too, a big plus when we consider ball security. The old man still has a gun for an arm and forces teams to respect the pass which in turn helps the strong ground game with bruiser LenDale White and burner Chris Johnson. While Minny is strong on the ground offensively and very tough against the run defensively, its pass defense is still a major question mark. Once Collins softens them up look for some holes to open for the Titans’ running backs. Throw in a strong home field edge, a legit top-five defense and the fact that despite playing last week Adrian Peterson is dealing with a hamstring injury and we have advantages across the board. Take Tennessee.


ERIN RYNNING
CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI -4.5 O/U 43.5
Recommendation: Over

Two teams with playoff aspirations to start the season face-off with 0-3 records this Sunday as the Browns visit the Bengals. The reason these two squads have stumbled -- most notably the offenses -- has been the caliber of defenses they’ve faced. The Browns have surrendered to the Cowboys, Steelers (note bad weather game), and Ravens. All three are above average defensive units. Meanwhile, it’s been much the same for the Bengals with games against the Ravens, Titans (note bad weather game), and Giants. It’s no wonder both teams have found it tough sledding on offense. However, it all has a great chance to change this Sunday when these two below average defenses face one another. Remember last season when they hooked up for an amazing 51-45 shootout that produced 1,085 yards? As a result of the early season shortcomings, we look to be getting some value here with the total. These two teams still feature high-power weapons on offense
and I’ll look for them to ignite on Sunday. Take this one Over the total in what has the recipe to be an absolute scoring fest from the start.


TIM TRUSHEL
MINNESOTA AT TENNESSEE -3 O/U 36
Recommendation: Tennessee

The Titans are the best defensive team in the NFL. They create turnovers with a solid secondary and an even better front line. They get as much pressure on the quarterback as any team in the league. They don’t make a lot of mistakes and they are especially strong on third down allowing just 29.6% conversions. Yet because they are not flashy and not from a major media market, this team goes unnoticed and remains one of the best values on the board each week. Both Minnesota and Tennessee are similar in style, preferring a conservative approach while relying on the running game. Tennessee has had more success because of the quarterback play of Kerry Collins. A caretaker with a big arm, Collins’ heady play has earned him a quarterback rating of 90.7. Minnesota’s quarterback rating is well below 70. Additionally, the Tennessee offensive line is much better at pass blocking and has afforded the offense more time to avoid mistakes. Even in a winning effort last week, Gus Frerotte was sacked three times. The Titans have allowed just two sacks all season. The home field advantage is real and the Vikings have also been known to struggle away from their dome. We expect Tennessee to capitalize on the little advantages and earn the win and cover.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Dave Fobare

@Cincinnati (-3½) over Cleveland
Both teams come into this rivalry game with a deserved 0-3 record. But the Bengals woke up last weekend falling in overtime to the defending Super Bowl champ Giants 26-23. The offense showed some spine, erasing deficits three times during regulation. Carson Palmer had his first solid game of the season, withstanding a furious Gotham pass rush (six sacks) to deliver 27 completions in 39 passes. Browns' QB Derek Anderson was supposed to be the pillar of a revived Cleveland attack. In 2007 he orchestrated a boomor- bust air game that completed lots of long passes (averaged nearly 13 yard per completion) with a higher than average interception rate. So far in 2008 there has been no boom only bust. Anderson has completed less than 45% of his passes and averaged less than 10 yards per completion. My top tech on this game is a 108-44 ATS system that plays on losing teams that must give a good effort now because the road ahead looks difficult. On deck Cincinnati has a visit to a 3-0 Dallas team that is off an impressive 27- 16 Sunday night nationally televised win over the Packers at Lambeau. This system is already 1-0 ATS in 2008 with a winner on Minnesota over Carolina last week. Long term I'm not a fan of the Bengals' prospects. Over the offseason Marvin Lewis wanted to get rid of bad seed wideout Chris Henry, but owner Mike Brown overruled him. The slight has undercut Lewis' authority in the locker room. But a good effort on the road against the Super Bowl winning Giants should be enough inspiration to succeed here. Lay the points. Cincinnati by 11.


Matty Baiungo

Texans (+7½) over @Jaguars

The Texans were in a terrible spot last week. Not only were they playing in just their second game of the season, but they also had to deal with much more important things than football. Hurricane Ike wrecked havoc in the city of Houston, and the Texans’ players had to deal with the harsh realities. It was impossible for them to focus on football when they and their families were directly affected by the nasty storm. They lost close to four days of preparation, so their results from Sunday’s game at Tennessee should be ignored. But now they’ll be back into the swing of football full time, and their improvement will show on the field this week as they face another divisional opponent in Jacksonville. Houston’s running game was very impressive in the loss at Tennessee. The Titans possess one of the best defensive lines in the game, and heading into Sunday’s game, they allowed only 33 yards on 1.9 yards per rush to the Jaguars and 88 yards on 3.1 yards to the Bengals. Those numbers are no fluke after ending last year allowing only 91 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush. But the Texans gashed them yesterday for 148 yards on 5.2 yards per rush. Steve Slaton had a field day, and the zone blocking scheme seems to be working for Houston. Despite scoring only 12 points, the Texans had plenty of chances throughout the game. In fact, they had the ball inside the Tennessee 14-yard line six times, but came up empty on those possessions. Head coach Gary Kubiak is catching some heat for sticking with Matt Schaub at quarterback. Schaub has not played well at all with 6 turnovers in two games. But he was facing good defenses in Pittsburgh and Tennessee, and you cannot underestimate the setbacks caused by Ike. At 0-2, the Texans are desperate which might cause Kubiak to make a hasty QB switch to Sage Rosenfels. Still like the Texans in this spot though, regardless of who’s under center. Jacksonville was one play away from being 0-3. They were bailed out on a 4th down penalty on the Colts, which kept their final drive alive on way to the game winning field goal. And that was after the Jags held the ball for over 25 minutes in the 2nd half. Even with the win, the Jaguars still have issues. We can’t overlook the fact that the Jags are still missing two starters on their offensive line. A center and a guard missing make it extremely difficult for Jacksonville to run up the middle, a spot where the Jags love to run the football. They shredded the Colts for 236 yards on the ground, but that’s the norm for them when facing Indy. David Garrard admitted to reporters he could “exhale” after Sunday’s win, and that really doesn’t shout confidence right now. The Jags are satisfied off their first win while the Texans will give their all to avoid a 0-3 start. Jaguars by only 1.


Kevin O’Neill

Niners (+6) @Saints

It’s never a bad idea to fade teams with poor defenses in the NFL, particularly as the pointspread gets larger. The Saints D is again a weak outfit. Thus far this season they’ve allowed nearly 28 points per game, on 392 yards per game, and 6.2 yards per play. They rank 27th or worse in all those categories. And before you excuse away these numbers by saying, “well they played the Broncos, and Denver is playing in some very high scoring games,” realize that New Orleans’ other two games were against the Redskins and the Bucs, who are much closer to average offensively. And the Saints offensive production resulted in part from having to let it fly when trailing 21-3. And while these are not you father’s 49ers, neither are they the horrific outfit from last season. Alex Smith will get his guaranteed $25 million, but is unlikely to ever see the field again for this ballclub. JT O’Sullivan had yet another strong performance on Sunday. Sure it was only against the Lions (that was an excellent report on Detroit by Dave Fobare that we emailed to you), but the Niners outgained the Detroit 5.9 yards per play to 4.4, marking the third straight impressive boxscore for San Francisco. O’Sullivan is averaging an impressive 9.4 yards per pass attempt on the season. With only a single interception on the season thus far, he could be a guy who is really emerging into an impressive player. In the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Lions, the Niners have faced a pretty blah set of opponents, but it is well worth noting that they’re gaining 6.0 yards per play, while giving up 4.4. Against some tougher competition (Bucs, Redskins, Broncos) the Saints gain 6.3 yards per play while allowing the 6.2 we mentioned earlier. The Niners were a team that everyone had on their “look out for these guys” list last season, but Alex Smith and injuries hurt them. Now they’ve got O’Sullivan, the unheralded but effective quarterback, and are enjoying some better health. When you see the difference between their offense last season and this season, and the decline of Detroit’s, it looks like Mike Martz is a positive influence on an offense, even relatively quickly. This club has a lot of good young players who may be blossoming. There is some concern that they gave up some yards and points on the road a couple of weeks ago to a beat-up Seattle offense, but the Saints defensive vulnerabilities strike us as being more important. Taking a TD with them against a club with significant defensive issues doesn’t look like the worst move to make on Sunday’s NFL card. Niners by 1.


Kevin O’Neill

Falcons (+7) @Panthers

Matt Ryan had a real nice advantage in his 5th-year senior season at Boston College. He had already graduated, so he was taking a class or two as a graduate student, but for the most part he was majoring in football. He would show up to watch film for hours each day before the rest of the team gathered for his afternoon practice. Steve Logan (former East Carolina coach) had most recently been a QB coach in NFL Europe and BC head coach Jeff Jagodiznski was previously Brett Favre’s offensive coordinator with the Packers. So he had all kinds of time to watch film and learn from a couple of coaches with a lot of background in helping coach professional quarterbacks. As a result, he is more prepared than most to be an NFL quarterback and is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which ties him for 7th in the league. Veterans on the Falcons suggest that after the horror of having Bobby Petrino as head coach, Mike Smith and his staff are a breath of fresh air. Smith’s defenses at Jacksonville certainly always looked well coached, so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised by the new professionalism being exhibited by Atlanta. The Sporting News projected a 1-15 season for Atlanta but this team is making good progress. They’ve been fortunate to have home games against sad-sacks Detroit and Kansas City, but they blew both clubs out and the fact remains they’re on the right track. The Falcons are averaging 6.2 yards per play while allowing 4.9. Carolina has played stiffer competition but has averaged only 4.5 yards per play while allowing 4.9. The Panthers haven’t looked sharp since their opening win over the Chargers. In their loss at Minnesota on Sunday they didn’t score after taking a 10-0 lead with 9:55 left in the second quarter. They were penalized 12 times. And they gained only 203 yards of total offense. Valuable special teams performer and situational linebacker Dan Connor (3rd round rookie out of Penn State) tore his ACL and is done for the season. While there are new faces on the Atlanta coaching staff, many of these players are familiar with each other from having played in the division together. As bad as the Falcons were the past two seasons, they’re won in Charlotte as an underdog both times. Panthers have won only 3 of their last 18 games by more than 7 points and since the start of the 2003 season are 10-21-1 against the spread as a home favorite. In fact, you could likely do a lot worse than simply taking the points in games involving either one of these coaches. Take the points in a game that will go to the wire. Panthers by only 3.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Chicago Bears +3

We'll make a system play against the Eagles here.  Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points are 23-4 ATS since 1983.  That's an 85.2% success rate over the last 25 years.   Philly is also just 6-16 ATS  in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.  Philly is losing these games outright by 7.6 ppg on average.  This one has all the making of a close one which puts taking the points in our favor.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Minnesota Vikings head south to take on undefeated Tennessee Titans this Sunday. The Vikings will finally go into a game with some momentum coming off a much needed win over the then-unbeaten Carolina Panthers last week. Odds makers don’t think the Vikings will be spoiling Tennessee’s fun however, and have listed Minnesota as a 3-point underdog with the total set at 35.5. Jimmy Boyd previews both sides of this matchup and then gives you who he thinks will cover the point spread.

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PRO INFO SPORTS

San Francisco vs. New Orleans Saints
Prediction: OVER 48.5

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

The San Francisco 49ers make the trip to the Big Easy to face the hometown New Orleans Saints on Sunday afternoon at the Louisiana Superdome.

The odds-makers have listed the Saints as a 6-point home favorite and the total opened at 49.5 and has since been bet down to 48.5.

Last week the 49ers defeated the Lions 31 to 13 as a 5-point favorite but the score fell below the posted total of 47. In that game San Fran QB JT O'Sullivan threw for 189 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While Frank Gore rushed for 130 yards on 27 carries to help lead the 49ers to the win.

The Saints are coming in off two tough losses the last coming in Denver as a 5.5 point road underdog losing 34 to 32. We used this Saints team as our NFL 5* Game of the Week last week and they got the ATS win for us in that contest.

Saints QB Drew Brees had another huge day passing as he threw for 421 yards and a touchdown. Saints RB Reggie Bush had a big day as well with 73 yards rushing on 18 carries and a touchdown. He also caught 11 passes for 75 more yards and another touchdown.

Both teams have been solid on the offensive side of the ball this season but both have found it difficult to stop the other team's offense. This plays right into our selection in this contest as we expect another high scoring offensive affair. This series has seen the "Over" cash in three of the last four meetings overall.

The 49ers have surprised a few people coming out of the gate with a 2-1 record on the young season and this also triggers a nice "Over" situation as we know the Saints are a perfect 8-0 Over their last 8 when playing a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.

On the technical front we also have a super situation that is active in this contest. It states to Play Over on road teams off a home win by 10 or more points against an opponent off a road ATS win where the team lost SU as an underdog, 30-7 Over the last ten seasons. During the last five seasons we have seen this situation post a record of 13-1 Over.

The Saints have started the 2008 campaign with three straight over performances averaging better than 54 points per game. This "Over" run for the Saints actually dates back to last season where they are a combined 8-0 over since the 2007 campaign.

New Orleans is 11-3 Over against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, 18-6 Over in home games after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992 and 10-2 Over after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

San Francisco appears to have adapted well to their new offensive schemes brought in by new OC Mike Martz. They have scored 31 and 33 points in their last two games respectively. We also note that underdogs off a SU double-digit non-division win at home and a SU division road dog win have produced a perfect 6-0 Over record the last three years.

This game will be played indoors on Sunday which also triggers a nice technical situation that tells us to Play Over in domed games during Game Four or Five of the season. This situation has produced an "Over" record of 16-5-2 since the 2001 season. During the last four seasons this situation has been a money making 11-1-2 Over.

Even though the number opened a little high to our liking it has come back down to well within our Total Points Range for a 2* Selection on the Over.


GRADED PREDICTION: 2* San Francisco / New Orleans OVER 48.5

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John Fina

Selection: St. Louis Rams +8.5

Reason: Put is down on the St. Louis Rams -8.5 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. Who would have imagined at the season¢s start that by week #4 Buffalo could be favored by nearly double digits to St. Louis on the road? It is a bit of a surprise but that is exactly what has happened. The thing is though, it¢s impossible for the Bills to be better than the Rams by 8.5 points even despite Buffalo¢s beaming confidence and 3-0 record. The Rams confidence level doesn¢t come close to that of the Bills. St. Lois is anguishing over a 0-3 record, being mauled by Philly who has stepped it up this season, and crushed by Seattle who is home to one of the harshest atmospheres in the NFL. In the middle of those two fiascos, they were defeated by the Giants who broke it open at the last minute. That game against NY wasn¢t as bad as the end results showed however; St. Louis held tight in that game and still managed to play well despite their defeat. The Rams do however have a thing or two going for them this week, namely that Trent Green is replacing Marc Bulger at the QB spot. Changes like this usually prove to be excellent for a lagging team because the new blood tends to pump some life and motivation back into the team. We¢ve seen this happen time and time again with the only exception being when a rookie takes over the position. Green is not a rookie though but rather a skilled veteran who can offer a light at the end of the tunnel for St. Louis. Green¢s charge is going to be a total 360 for the Rams compared to Bulger who was apathetic and dull in the role. The Bills have made some genuine improvements but not quite enough to make a difference in their effect. They still have a great CB but the offense still needs work. While they are ranked at 13th in total offense their rushing offense rank of 23rd is not so nice. The offense was forced to pass to make comebacks in the last two games, and QB Marshawn Lynch has only averaged 3.6 yards per carry ranking him at 37th in the league. The Rams are not very good defensively, but they do however have experience up against opponents with excellent offenses. Basically, what we have here is the perfect opportunity to intelligently contest the popular opinion because of the situation that the horrible Ram offense paired with the sturdy defense of the Bills creates. There is a lot of value with the underdog today! Take the St. Louis Rams +8.5!

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Larry Ness

NOS -4.0 vs SF

The Saints have opened 1-2 but could just as easily be 3-0. The team led the Redskins 24-15 with just over six minutes left in the 4th quarter of a 29-24 loss at Washington in Week 2 and Martin Gramatica's 43-yard FG try with 1:55 remaining last week was wide right, as the Broncos escaped with a 34-32 win over the Saints in Denver in Week 3. The 49ers enter on a two-game winning streak, with wins at Seattle (33-30 in OT) in Week 2 and a 31-13 home win last week over the Lions. The Saints enter this game leading the league with 315.3 YPG passing, after Drew Brees passed for 421 yards in last Sunday's loss to the Broncos. San Francisco's starting QB will be JT O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan has played for five teams in his six NFL seasons but made his first NFL start this year in Week 1. He gets a chance to haunt a former club for the second straight week (beat the Lions last week), as the Saints drafted him in the sixth round of the 2002 draft. However, he never took a snap with New Orleans in two-plus seasons before getting traded to Green Bay in 2004. O'Sullivan has been very good these last two weeks, completing 65.5 percent of his passes for 509 yards with three TDs and no INTs, as the 49ers have averaged 32.0 PPG. Sullivan's 104.6 QB rating is second-best in the NFC this year and he's opened up the field for RB Frank Gore, who leads the NFL with 412 yards from scrimmage (287 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 13 receptions). However, with Brees running the New Orleans' offense, the 49ers will have trouble keeping up with the Saints. Brees leads the league with 980 passing yards and has defeated the 49ers in all three games he has faced them, throwing for seven touchdowns in that span (including a four-TD game last season). He is missing WR Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey but this Saints 'O' just keeps rolling. Brees is getting plenty of support from RB Reggie Bush this year, who looks to be regaining the form that saw him post over 1,500 all-purpose yards as a rookie in 2006. Bush ran for 73 yards and added 11 catches for 75 yards in last weekend's loss (now leads the NFL with 26 catches), scoring on the ground and through the air. The 49ers are 2-1, while the Saints are just 1-2 but look at who they've played. San Francisco's wins have come against a pair of teams who are a combined 1-5 (Seattle and Detroit), while the Saints have lost to Washington (2-1) and Denver (3-0). Lay the cheap price with New Orleans.

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Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY (Game of the Week)

Houston +7 over JACKSONVILLE

Houston is 7-1 ATS if the are below .500 and are off BB SU & ATS losses and they are 10-2 ATS as dogs off BB AFC losses, while the Jags are 0-7 ATS as favs of 6 or more if their opponent is off an away game and 3-9 ATS the last 12 in the series. This is a classic sandwich game for the Jagsas they are off a tough last second win vs division rival Indy and then they have a huge SNF game vs Pittsburgh on deck. I really can't see them getting to sky high here for this 0-2 Houston team that has been shelled in its two games thus far. Houston has played the Jags well of late as they are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 overall and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips here. Jacksonville may very well win this game, but I expect them to do enough to just win the game as they get ready for Pitt next week. Jags by a FG.


4 UNIT PLAY

TOTAL OF THE WEEK Cincinnati/ Cleveland Over 44

The Over is 4-1-1 in Browns last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and 8-1 if they are off 1 or more consecutive Overs the last 2 years, while the Over is 6-2 in Bengals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Neither offense has gotten on track this year, but both teams have faced nothing but top 10 defenses so far. Today's defenses are far from good as the Browns come in with the 23rd ranked overall defense and 18t in points allowed, while the Bengals sport the 24th ranked overall defense and the 20th ranked scoring defense. Both offense have really been frusterated in the early going, but i see both teams breaking out here and giving us a game somewhere in the 50's. Easy Over here.


3 UNIT PLAY

San Francisco +4 over NEW ORLEANS

The Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, while the 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Niners may be the most improved team in the league this year and it begins with an offense that is starting to click. The Niners come in ranked 11th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense. The rushing offense will be key here are they are putting up 128 ypg on the ground, with a 4.7 ypc average. That is not good news for the Saints who are 22nd in rushing defense, at 133 ypg, plus they allow a staggering 5.3 ypr on the year. Overall this Saints defense is 29th in the league in yards allowed and 27th in points allowed. The offense is 4th overalkl and tops in passing, but they will be taking on the 7th rated pass defense in the league. The Niners run game should keep the potent Saints offense on the sidelines and that should allow them to keep this one close, if not win it out right.


2 UNIT PLAYS

NY Jets/ Arizona Under 44.5

The Cardinals offense is ranked 10th in the league, but what really stands out is their 8th ranked defense overall and their 5th ranked scoring defense. Today they take on a struggling Jets offense that is 23rd overall and 21st in scoring. Favre just hasn't gotten it going for this team as of yet. The Jet defense is 26th in points allowed but they are ranked a solid 12th in total defense and 8th against the rush. The Under is 6-0 in Jets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The last 2 between these teams have averaged just 17.5 ppg and I see another low scoring affair in the Meadowlands today.


Jacksonville/ Houston Over 40.5

The Over is 13-3 in Texans last 16 vs. AFC South and 5-0 in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, while the Over is 14-2 when the Jags are playing on 6 days or less rest and  7-1-1 in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Both teams have the ability to put points on the board and that should result in a game in the low 50's.


1 UNIT PLAY

KANSAS CITY +10 over Denver

The Broncos are 0-10 ATS after putting up 6+ yards per play in their last game and 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. win, while the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4 and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 35 or more points. The Broncos are laying big wood on the road with a defense that is 30th overall and 28th in points scored. I don't think so. The Broncos are also 2-6-1 in their last 9 rips here, while the Home team is 11-3 the last 14 meetings. Take the points with the Chiefs here.

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Andre Gomes

TAM vs GBP
   
Both teams have 2-1 records right now, however they are coming from different momentums. The Packers gave good indications in their first two games, but against Dallas they showed they still aren't a top team at the level of the Cowboys. The team used an interesting defensive scheme to stop Terrel Owens, as they did it as Owens just had two catches and 17 yards. But with such concentration in stopping Owens, the team couldn't stop the running game of Dallas, who ended with 217 rushing yards and RB Marion Barber ended with a career high of 142 yards.

The consequences of this game for the Packers were disastrous in terms of injuries, especially on their secondary unit. CB Al Harris will be out for some weeks. The other starting CB Charles Woodson has also been physically limited. Safeties Atari Bibgy and Nick Collins haven't also been able to practice last week and they won't be at 100% for this game. The same is to say that the unit is struggling with injuries in all positions. So all we need to know for this game is if Tampa Bay has a good enough passing game to make the Packers struggle in this area, as this will naturally be the weakest part of the Packers this Sunday. And in my opinion, the answer for this question is an obvious yes.

Brian Griese comes from a game against the Bears, where he had 407 passing yards and I think that's a good enough motive to think the Bucs have potential to make the Packers' defense struggle. Griese started the season on the bench to later replace Jeff Garcia in the starting team and with great results. Griese seems to have more chemistry with his receiving corps and it's only necessary to refer that 9 players of the team have already at least 1 catch with Griese on the field. The team showed to have a big heart last week against the Bears, where they were down by 14-24 with three minutes to go and with Griese showed to be efficient down the stretch.

We have seen the Packers on the road this season against the Lions and if it wasn't for John Kitna getting intercepted twice in the last minutes of the game, the Packers would have lost that game.

The Bucs are a very strong team at home and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and I clearly think they should cause enough problems to the Packers' secondary to win the game. Take the Bucs in here.

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Rockboxsports.com

3 STARS: TAMPA BAY -1

2 STARS: CAROLINA -7; SAN FRAN +5

1 STAR: KC +10; ARIZONA +1; BUFFALO -9; DALLAS -10.5

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Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Carolina -7 vs Atlanta
Pittsburgh -5 vs Baltimore

Single Plays

Houston +7 vs Jacksonville
Tampa Bay -1 vs Green Bay
San Francisco +5 vs New Orleans
San Diego -7.5 vs Oakland
Minnesota +3 vs Tennessee
Tennessee/Minnesota Under 35.5
Carolina/Atlanta Under 39.5
Arizona/NY Jets Over 44.5
Washington/Dallas Under 46
Chicago/Philadelphia Under 40.5
San Diego/Oakland Under 45.5

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Cappers Access

Chiefs
Jets
Rams
Bears

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Dennis Macklin.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Matt Ryan has been great at home but ... in his only road start in TB, he started 0-8 with two picks and the horse was out of the barn. The resurgent Panthers defense is playing great and the offense should do some biz against the Falcons defense. Caro will be in foul mood after giving away last to Vikes. Barring another "Jake" moment, Carolina wins this by two touchdowns.

Play on: Carolina

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