Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

The Gold Medal Club

Virginia / Duke
PLAY:Virginia +7

We will back the Cavs here knowing that they not only have had tougher competition, but are 7-1 SU @ Duke since 1992.We will take note of Duke who are 0-3 as home chalk in this price range since 1992, and 0-2 with rest the last 3 years.While much has been made of the Virginia QB situation, they show up today!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

EAST CAROLINA (-) over Houston

Off last week's shocking loss at NC State, East Carolina will bounce back nicely at home against Houston this afternoon.

The Pirates have been a cash cow lately posting a profitable 31-15 ATS record in their last 46 games. Equally impressive, off a SU and ATS loss, ECU has cruised to a money-making 42-25 ATS mark including 26-13 ATS in this set priced as a favorite or a dog of +6 or less.

Currently on an ugly 0-8 ATS run dating back to last season, Houston's woes have continued. The Cougars are on a woeful 0-3 SU and ATS run right now and locked into one of their worst team roles. When matched up against a foe off a straight up loss, UH is a dismal 50-77 ATS including a nasty 10-26 ATS in this set coming off back-to-back straight up losses. Please note: In this final tightener priced as a pup of +2 or more, the Cougars drop to a stiff 3-16 ATS.

There is a unique college system that favors East Carolina too. Since 1980, home favorites priced at -10 or more are a respectable 34-18-1 ATS provided they failed to cover as road chalk in their last two games. This situation improves to a powerful 24-11 ATS provided our "play on" side is matched up against a foe that enters off a straight up loss. The Pirates fit the general situation and the tightener.

ECU skipper Skip Holtz won't allow his players to let the WolfPack beat his team twice. "Holtzie" will have his troops ready to go. Take East Carolina.


TOLEDO (-) over Florida International

Off last week’s 55-54 double overtime home loss to No. 25 Fresno State, look for Toledo to get back on the winning track at the Glass Bowl against Florida International!

After breaking down this contest, the home versus road dichotomy was too juicy to pass up. In their last 50 games in Toledo, the Rockets have exploded to the tune of 43-7 SU and 31-12 ATS including a money-making 16-1 SU and 13-2 ATS in this set coming off a straight up loss. Meanwhile, foreign soil has been a problem for the Panthers of FIU. Since last season, Florida International is a woeful 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS as a guest and that includes a pair of beatings at Kansas (40-10) and Iowa (42-0) this season.

If you want to beat Toledo, you need to put points on the board. That’s the one thing that FIU can’t do. In three games against Kansas, Iowa and South Florida, the Panthers have posted a grand total of 17 points. Granted, the Jayhawks, Hawkeyes and Bulls are all decent defensive teams. But, Toledo plays an elevated game at the Glass Bowl and they can do a number on you in this stadium on both sides of the ball.

With a 1-2 SU record and wars against Ball State and Michigan on deck, the Rockets know they can’t take Florida International lightly. That last thing UT wants is to travel to Northern Illinois on October 18th in desperate need of its second win of the season! Lay the lumber here men! Take Toledo!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Charlie Scott

Mississippi vs. Florida    
Play:Over 48.5   

When I first handicapped this game, my first thought was to take Mississippi and the points. However, the more I handicapped the more concerns I had with the Mississippi defense wearing down, and special teams coverage, and Florida Coach Urban Meyer running up the score. (See Miami) The Ole Miss offense will score points with a veteran Offensive Line, Pro style WR's and QB. Mississippi offense also doesn't run down the play clock and gets more plays per game on offense. The more I handicapped the game playing the OVER seems like a safer wager than the side. You know Mississippi is going to score their points while Florida will score on Offense,defense, and special teams. Watch for Mississippi defense to tire in the second half, and Head Coach Houston Nutt will have some trick plays on offense.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

BIG AL

CINCY v ST LOUIS
Pick: Under

At 7:15pm our complimentary selection is on the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals 'under' the total. There were many people who thought that this final series between the Reds and Cards would determine an NL Playoff spot, but that is not the case. Both of these teams, especially St. Louis, have underachieved this season and as a result, with the Cards 14 games out and the Reds over 20 games out, this game is basically meaningless except for pride involved when two division rivals only a few hundred miles apart play each other in the final series of the season. Cincy's righthanded starter Aaron Harang has been on fire in the last month or so of this season, putting up a 2.39 ERA in his last seven starts, including a complete game shutout over St. Louis on September 17. Harang would like nothing more than to end what has been a very down season on a high note against his division rival. Cards' righthander Todd Wellemeyer has had a career season in his first campaign as a full-time starter. He is guaranteed of a winning record with at least 12 wins, and should also compile his first season with an ERA under four runs. Wellemeyer has 131 strikeouts with only 61 walks in over 185 innings heading into this final start. At 29 years old, Wellemeyer has put himself right in the middle of the starting rotation mix for this team heading into 2009. Going into this series, the under was 19-7-3 in Cincinnati's last 29 road games and 13-7-1 in the Cards' last 21 overall. Take the 'under'.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

John Fina

Selection: West Virginia -15

Reason: Put us down on West Virginia -15 for our Free College Football Selection on Saturday. Backing up good teams that no one else is interested in, or backing good teams that are looking for a fight, are two of the most profitable bets in sports. Lucky for us, West Virginia meets both of these conditions. We have a great opportunity to cash in on this low price because we expect to see a blowout from the Mountaineers. The markets seem certain that any remnants from former coach Rich Rodriguez are long gone, resulting in a line drop in expecting West Virginia to get a win by 15 points. West Virginia and Marshall are two long time, in-state rivals renewing their series in 2006 where the Mountaineers won 42-19 as -22 on their home field. That game was the opening season where Pat White and the Mountaineers ran for 312 yards. Last season, West Virginia defeated Huntington 48-23 at -25 running for 362 yards. It’s fair to say that both of these fields are worth about 3. 5 points, so from that perspective the Mountaineers were -19.5 at home in ’06 and on the road last year at -28.5 in the eyes of the marketplace. You can see that the line category was accurate if you average the two to get -24, as well as the final scores which is an advantage of 28.5 ppg. It’s also important to remember that West Virginia wasn’t looking for a blowout win in either case; they simply just wanted to win and get on with it. For this game we see a rather large adjustment on the line since two years ago with the Mountaineers being a -10.5 on a neutral field. It’s true that West Virginia has fallen slightly but it is also true that Marshall has not made any notable improvements. Marshall led Wisconsin 14-0 three weeks ago until the Badgers crushed them by 51 unanswered points. In the past 2 weeks they did manage 2 very close wins against Memphis and Southern Mississippi, but they were a combined -11 first downs and -51 yards of total offense. Marshall is in fact a pedestrian team that is a poor matchup to West Virginia. Because of their winning streak West Virginia is put in the position where they do need to take them seriously. But The Mountaineers have other reasons to take this game to heart. Coach Bill Stewart screwed up at Colorado last week making preventable mistakes in a game that they otherwise could have easily controlled. Stewart was pounded for this by the local media and is humiliated. This week will be his first high stakes game at home since they opened against Villanova which was a dull game with an unremarkable victory of 48-21. Stewart is going to be desperate to redeem himself from last week’s fiasco and Marshall is a team that he will have no trouble controlling at all. The result will be a Mountaineers team that refuse to let up at any time and a coach who is determined to let everyone know that he’s running the show. With the media making a huge deal about this intra-state rivalry as a face off for state supremacy, the talented Mountaineers will be firm in establishing their superiority. Lay the points! Take West Virginia -15!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tony Mathews

Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Selection: Michigan +6.5

Rich Rodriguez taking over as head coach for Michigan and the resulting condition of the Wolverines has been one of the biggest college football stories of the season. But the media’s sensationalism has caused a huge overreaction in the marketplace with this team taking +6 at home in a Big 10 game which hasn’t happened in an exceptionally long time. This means value.

The struggling offense is to be expected with a new staff and a new playbook. But last week’s bye was a great opportunity for Rodriguez to fine tune his schemes in accordance with the skill and talent of QB Steven Threet, RB Sam McGuffie and WR Martavious Odoms. These three will be the most fundamental component in rebuilding the Wolverines. The Michigan offense has nowhere to go but up, but their current level isn’t even an integral part of this game anyway. The exceptional Wolverine defense is what is going to be important for Michigan. In their past three games, the Wolverine defense allowed only 196 yards combined and probably held Utah and Miami to their lowest for the entire season. They held Notre Dame to 14 first downs and 260 yards, with just 3.3 yards per rush and less than 50% pass completions, revealing how deceptive the issue of allowing 35 points is. The Fighting Irish defense on the other hand scored a TD directly on a fumble return. Then they got 2 more on drives of 12 and 14 yards following turnovers. The Badgers won’t be able to control this hardened unit who has far superior skill and depth than Wisconsin can handle.

Wisconsin itself hasn’t done anything spectacular that would account for these line adjustments. While their ground game is effective against weaker opponents, first year starting QB Allan Evridge’s lack of experience (a transfer from Kansas State) isn’t going to faze the Wolverines one bit. So Far the Badgers’ offense has scored only 1 touchdown against Fresno State with 16 1st downs and 304 yards. Keep in mind that Fresno is a team who allowed a horrible Rutgers 22 1st downs and 369 yards. Against Toledo, they surrendered 41 and a total of 25 first downs and 548 yards prior to those two overtime periods. Evridge will be in the fight of his life against the Wolverines leaving no room amid tackles. The Badgers were 1-3 SU on the Big 10 road last season, defeating a lowly Minnesota 41-34. They lost to Penn State, Illinois and Ohio State by 57 points combined. Wisconsin is going to have a lot of difficulty just winning this game but a win that involves any sort of margin will be virtually impossible.

Take Michigan +6.5!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

UPSET SPECIAL-- MICHIGAN +6 Over Wisconsin

PLAY ON any 1-2 college conference team off a loss in Game Four vs. an undefeated opponent off BB SU and ATS wins. This Angle is 17-6 since 1980. Michigan is 4-1 ATS after allowing 35 or more points and  14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 conference games, while the Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 0-7 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent seeking revenge off a DD SU loss. This isn't the mighty Wolverines of the past, but they are still a dangerous home team and this looks like the perfect spot for them to steal a win vs a top 10 team. The Michigan offense turned the ball over 6 times in their last game (Notre Dame) and they lost that game 35-17, but they still outgained the Irish by a 388-260 count. That's the 2nd week in a row that Michigan allowed 260 yards or less. This defense is 12th in rushing defense, at 63 ypg and will taking on a Wisconsin team, who's bread and butter is their 13th ranked rushing offense. I see Michigan shutting the running game down and that will force Wisconsin to throw, which they don't do well. Michigan's offense played good vs the Irish (minus the To's) and that will also help them at least keep the game close here. Wisconsin's offense hit on all cylinders vs Akron and Marshall, but struggled vs Fresno State and Michigan's defense is better than the Bulldogs. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Badgers as they have the Buckeyes and Penn State on deck and it will be easy for them to look past this Wolverines squad that is down this year. I see Michigan getting the outright win here.


3 UNIT PLAY

BALL STATE -20 over Kent State

Here is a trend for you: KSU HC Doug Martin is just 1-15 ATS vs teams with a completion % of 58% or better. Also the Golden Flashes are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 conference games and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game, while the Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall. The Cardinals will be playing with a heavy heart this week after their top WR (Dante Love) had career ending spinal surgery this week. Nate Dave has been super for Ball State this year as he has hit 72% of his passes for 1155 yards, with 9 TD's and just 4 INT's. Oh yeah, he also has averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt. He will be taking aim at a Kent defense that is 105 th in total defense and 65th in passing defense. Ball State is also 14th in points scored (41.5 ppg), while Kent is 93rd in points allowed (29 ppg). Kent's strength is it's run game, but i see them falling behind early so they will have to throw more and they are 103rd in passing, while Ball State is 49th in passing defense. Ball State will come out fired up and build a sizeable lead, which will make Kent throw the ball and that's not what they do best. Ball State should easily win by 3+ TD's here.

3 Team 6 Point Teaser-- North Carolina +13.5, Cincinnati -5, Auburn -.5


2 UNIT PLAYS

Maryland +10.5 over CLEMSON

The Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Clemson and the Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings, while the Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Maryland is 3-1 on the year and they have shook off that shocking loss to MTSU, by beating Cal and Eastern Michigan in easy fashion the last 2 weeks. Clemson has also shaken off an early season loss to go 3-0 in thier last 3 games, but 2 of those games were vs FCS teams and the thrid was vs NC state. Not really top notch competition. Thes last 2 games between theses teams at Death Vally has been decided by 1 and 3 points, and the way the Terps are playing right now I can easily see them keeping this on within a TD.

Bowling Green/ Wyoming Under 44: The Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games overall, while the Under is 10-4 in Cowboys last 14 non-conference games. Bowling Greens offense is ranked 96 overall and 108th in points scored, while the Cowboy offense is ranked 117th overall and 118th in points scored. I don't see many points in this one.


1 UNIT PLAY

Colorado +5.5 over FLORIDA STATE

The Noles are 1-5 ATS at home vs a team seeking revenge and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, while the  Buffaloes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and 8-1 ATS before playing Texas. Florida State started of the season 2-0, but both games were vs FCS opponents. Last week their true colors were shown as they lost 12-3 to Wake Forest on their own field. After piling up 1059 yards and 115 points vs the two FCS opponents, the Noles were only able to put 3 points and 220 yards on the board vs the Deacons last week. This offense must now take on a solid Colorado defense that is 46th in total defense and 39th in scoring defense. The Buffalo offense hasn't been spectacular this year, but they have put 362 ypg and 29 ppg on the board so far. The Noles offense and defensive numbers are good, but again the level of competition has not been top notch. The defenses are even in this one, but the Buffaloes get the edge on offense and that will be enough to keep it close, if not get the outright win.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

SafestWagers

Illinois at Penn State

We're hardly ever inclined to agree with what is now considered a gambling colloquialism "The Line Is Telling You Something", but the number for this game opened at 13, and the big money keeps going on Penn State.... even though Illinois is ranked 22nd in the country.Last week we gave you Penn State/Temple on the over at the 1/2, and you weren't disappointed.But.... The Nittany Lions slept thru the first quarter with little ball movement. In the 2nd quarter they got in gear and put 31 points on the board in 12 minutes. This week they have good players returning from injury and suspensions.Look for Penn State to come out more inspired early on Saturday.With USC losing to Oregon State on Thursday night, Paterno and company will try to run up the score and make this a statement game.

Take Penn State - 15

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

SportsKingz

NEW MEXICO ST. +3

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

The Hitman

Temple should get smoked today, without their number one QB. DiMichele is out with a shoulder injury, and although the team was 3-1 vs he Mac last season, I don't expect them to be able to move the ball. It should be a wet day in Philly for the game, making the teams utilize the running games even more.

Take Western Michigan -3.5

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