Monday Premium Service Plays
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Las Vegas Insider-MLB (now 56-33 since May 26 with MLB Insiders!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.Almost everyone will remember that last season the Phillies went 13-4 down the stretch and won the NL East on the final day of the regular season, while the Mets lost 12 of their final 17. New York is not in a 'free fall" this September but Philadelphia has erased a 3 1/2-game deficit in the division and with a 5-2 win yesterday afternoon in Florida, has won NINE of its last 10 games to take a 1 1/2 game lead in the NL East into the season's final week. More good news comes Philly's way in that Phillies couldn't ask for a better way to end the season than back-to-back three-game home series with the Braves (69-87) and the then the Nationals (58-98). First things first. The Phillies swept a three-game series at Turner Field (9/16-18) to finish the season 9-0 in Atlanta this season, giving the Phillies a 13-2 lead in this year's season series with the Braves. Atlanta will 'limp' into this series at 26-49 on the road in '08, with their minus-$2,136 moneyline mark representing the most any team in all of MLB has lost this season away from home. Jair Jurrjens (13-10, 3.72 ERA) takes the mound for Atlanta and the pitcher who the team acquired from a trade with Detroit before the season began, has struggled lately. Jurrjens allowed three ERs or less in 19 of his first 24 starts this year but in his last six outings, has allowed three ERs or less just TWO times, allowing 22 ERs over 30 innings of work for a 6.60 ERA during that span. That's doesn't spell good news against the red-hot Phils, who have averaged six runs per game in winning NINE of their last 10 games overall and for a pitching staff which has held opponents to three runs or less in EIGHT of their most recent nine wins. Jurrjens will be facing a Philadelphia team which has averaged 6.6 RPG in their last 11 games against the Braves, batting .308 and hitting 22 HRs. Speaking of pitching, lefty JA Happ (1-0, 4.24 ERA) gets the start for the Phils. Happ pitched six scoreless innings in Philadelphia's 6-1 over Atlanta on Wednesday night, notching his first career win. He allowed three hits, walked one and struck out two in his third start this year and fourth of his career. Happ is replacing struggling Kyle Kendrick in the rotation and was recalled from Triple A on September 1 (third time TY he's been with the big club). Happ's posted a 2.12 ERA in his three starts this year (4 ERs in 17 IP), with Philadelphia winning all three. As already mentioned, the Braves are a terrible road team and they are also just 19-31 in '08 when facing a lefty starter, including a 3-11 mark in road night games (averaging 3.6 RPG). Las Vegas Insider Phi Phillies.
Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner (6-1 MLB run the L4 days!)
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on LA Angels at 10:10 ET. The Angels and Mariners open a four-games series tonight, concluding the season-series between the two AL West rivals. What a difference a year makes. The Angels won the AL West last year but the Mariners finished '07 with 88 wins (just six games behind LA) while going plus-$1,924 vs the moneyline, making Seattle MLB's 2nd-biggest "money-maker." The Angels cruised to the AL West title again in '08 (own MLB's best record of 96-59 and a division lead of 21 1/2 games over second-place Texas), while the Mariners come into this game (minus-$3,701 against the moneyline for the year, the worst mark in MLB), a half-game worse than the Nationals (who own MLB's poorest record), 10 1/2 games worse than any other AL team and a ridiculous 39 games worse than the Angels! Seattle will also open this series on an 11-game losing streak, getting outscored 62-27. The team's home mark is 31-43 and its minus-$1,712 money-line mark is also MLB's worst home record. Seattle will give the ball to Ryan Rowland-Smith (4-2, 3.53 ERA), who has made 45 appearances in '08, including 10 starts. He's made eight consecutive starts since the beginning of August and while he hasn't pitched poorly, the Mariners are 2-6 in those games. He'll face an LA team which is MLB's best road team at 47-30 and by far its best moneyline team on the road with a plus-$1,871 mark. LA has also done great against lefties in '08, posting a 32-15 record! Ervin Santana (15-6, 3.33 ERA) pitched the finale of the most recent series between the two teams, allowing two ERs and six hits over seven innings but leaving without a decision in that 4-3 LA win on September 14. He hasn't pitched since, so he's well-rested as the Angels look to "set their rotation" for the upcoming postseason. It's been quite ayear for Santana, who after solid seasons of 12-8 and 16-8 with the Angels in '05 and '06, fell to 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA last year. He was just horrific away from Anaheim last year, as the Angels went 3-11 in his road starts, while Santana posted an 8.87 ERA. Many wondered if he would even make the team this year but Santana responded with a super season in which he was named to the All Star teamand most impressively, has figured out his problems on the road. He'll take a 10-2 road mark (3.16 ERA) into this game. What's NOT to like about the Angels in this one? Weekly Wipeout Winner LA Angels.
Larry Ness' Prime Time Delight-NYJ/SD (PERFECT 3-0 on MNF in '08!)
My Prime Time Delight is on the SD Chargers at 8:35 ET. The Chargers opened 1-3 in '07 under Norv Turner and the chants of "We want Marty" quickly began. However, Turner got this talented team turned around (with more than a little help from LT and Rivers) and the Chargers wound up in the AFC championship game, where they lost in a very competitive game to the Patriots, despite numerous star players being hurt (LT, Gates and Rivers). San Diego was among an elite group of favorites to win in the AFC at the start of the year but in "crushing fashion," the team's opened 0-2. San Diego fell behind in Week 1 at home to the Panthers but were led back by Rivers, taking a 24-19 lead (three TDs and 0 INTs). However, the Chargers were edged on literally, the game's final play, when Delhomme connected on an unlikely TD pass. Rivers was terrific again in Week 2 at Denver, throwing for a career-high 377 yards (with three more TDs). Sparked by Darren Sproles' 317 all-purpose yards, the Chargers again overcame an early deficit to have the "game in hand" (38-31) in the final minutes. This time, a fumble by Broncos QB Jay Cutler was incorrectly whistled dead as an incomplete pass, allowing Denver to score very late and win the game by converting a two-point play. As for the Jets, they won their opener in Miami in less than impressive fashion and then were beaten by the Brady-less Pats in Week 2, in Matt Cassell's first start since high school. It should be pointed out that yesterday, in Cassell's second career start, the Pats were thumped at home (ending a 21-game regular season winning streak) by the Dolphins, who had lost 11 straight road games. There are many question marks surrounding the Jets, the first being are they going to "take the handcuffs off" Brett Favre? Conservative play-calling has hurt the team in each of the first two weeks. Favre (375 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) has a 104.1 QB rating and a 68.8 completion percentage but the team's averaged just 15.0 PPG. WRs Cotchery (82 catches in each of the last two years) and Coles (reportedly still pouting over the treatment of Pennington) each have just four catches, while second-year player Chansi Stuckey leads the team in receiving with just six receptions (two TDs).The OL has allowed five sacks and RB Thomas Jones just doesn't look the same as when he was in Chicago. San Diego's defense has underachieved so far (an understatement) but this is a talented group. Offensively, LT has "toe problems" but Rivers took over as the leader of this team playing through a painful injury in last year's AFC title game (while LT sat on the sidelines with a less serious injury) and he's off to a terrific start (six TDs / one INT / 122.5 QB rating). "Must win" doesn't mean "will win" but these are desperate times for San Diego and it can't go overlooked that Rivers is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS at home as a starting QB. Favre may be 5-0 all-time in head-to-head meetings with the Chargers but "that was THEN and this is NOW!" Prime Time Delight 15* SD Chargers.
Re: Monday Premium Service Plays
NY Jets/San Diego Under 45 1/2 (3 Unit Play)
Everyone is expecting a shootout in San Diego tonight and I just don't see it. The Jets have taken on division foes Miami and New England so far and it is fairly obvious that Favre still does not have the complete chemistry needed with his WR's as on the year the Jets are 33-48-333 yards through air for a 6.94 YPA average. That doesn't look that bad but even though the Chargers have allowed 65 points thus far this year they have been able to contain Denver and Carolina to only 6.45 YPA and I think those teams have a considerably better passing game then the Jets do. The Chargers weakness has been in stopping the run and I think the Jets will try to grind out the game tonight on the ground as they were able to rush for 5.0 YPC last week against the Patriots. Meanwhile the Chargers still are a potent offensive team especially through the air but New York has been very efficient in controlling the pass thus far this year and I think this game will be decided on the ground this evening. This total is set way to high and I can't see it going Over the total so I recommend taking the Under in this game. The line is climbing as well so you may want to wait closer to gametime to take this one.
Baltimore +1.32 (3 Unit Play)
Re: Monday Premium Service Plays
4* MNF LADDER GAME
Game: Jets @ Chargers
Pick: Chargers -5 (1st Half)
I have my MNF ladder games going tonight, what is a ladder game you ask. A game to get you out of the hole you put your self into by playing your own games or by not playing mine. The Chargers look to bounce back after having a win taken away from them last week in Denver. Look for the Chargers to come out fast not leaving this game up to one call. Our 4* play is, CHARGERS -5 FIRST HALF!!!!
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Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report- MNF
New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
Prediction: 3* New York Jets +9
The San Diego Chargers will look to avoid a 0-3 start to the 2008 campaign when they host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football on ESPN.
After falling 26-24 to Carolina on the final play in its opener, Norv Turner’s squad went to Denver last week and ended up on the wrong end of a “zebra’s” call in a 39-38 loss to the Broncos.
The Chargers have gotten outstanding play this season from QB Philip Rivers, who enters tonight with a 122.5 passer rating and who has thrown for 594 yards with six TDs and just one INT.
Defensively, however, San Diego has yet to stop anybody, allowing 32.5 points and 437 total yards per game. San Diego is ranked 28th in points allowed and 30th in total defense. Defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell caught tons of heat last year for his vanilla approach before letting players become more aggressive, however they have no Merriman to turn to this season. The Bolts are 10-24 ATS in home games off a loss against a division rival.
The Jets opened the season with a 20-14 road win in Miami as a three-point favorite and then came home last week and lost 19-10 to New England as a one-point favorite. Favre has an NFL-record 445 TD passes but only two in a Jets’ uniform, both coming in the season-opening win over the Dolphins, as last week he finished 18-for-26 for 152 yards with an interception.
Favre’s impact will be felt not only in his ability to stay calm under pressure late in games, but also in the fact that now the Jets have the vertical, downfield passing game they lacked under Chad Pennington. The Jets are 22-6 ATS off a home loss to an AFC East opponent.
Favre will test the beleaguered San Diego secondary, allowing nearly 300 yards through the air (293.5). It’s not entirely the fault of the secondary, since they can’t be expected to defend receivers for five seconds, with the Chargers having just one sack in two games. Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery could be poised for a big night with the Jets 9-1 ATS after scoring three points or less in the first half last game over the last three seasons.
Jets RB Thomas Jones is rushing for 4.4 yards per carry with a rebuilt offensive line, if this continues; this should open up the Jets passing game. If the Jets can establish any type of running game this will allow Favre to throw the ball down field and make this another long evening for the Charger faithful.
Eric Mangini’s defense ranks sixth in the league against the run (76.5 ypg) and eighth in total defense (268.5 ypg). With San Diego Chargers RB LT suffering from turf toe and has been limited at practice this week that could be a huge problem for this Chargers offense. Even with QB Rivers playing extremely well at this time the Chargers must establish the run to set up the pass.
The Jets have had the Chargers number and are 6-1 ATS against them. The Jets are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to San Diego dating to 2002, including a 20-17 upset win as seven-point ‘dogs in a 2005 AFC wild-card matchup. The last time these two teams faced each other was in November 2005, when the Chargers scored a 31-26 road win but failed to cover as a 6½-point road chalk. The visitor is 7-2 (6-3 ATS) in the last nine series clashes dating back to 1989
New York is 4-0 ATS on the road, 9-5 ATS as a road underdog under Mangini and 12-4 ATS following an ATS loss. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in September contests and 3-7-1 ATS in Week 3 action.
The Jets are 15-2 ATS as a dog the week after a straight up loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Jets are 9-0-1 ATS as a road 7+ dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Jets are 7-0-1 ATS as a road dog when they had at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks. The Jets are 7-0 ATS when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak.
The Chargers are 1-10 ATS versus a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents.
Our Technical Situation Report shows that New York is in a positive situation for teams with a big play yardage percentage for >50 and facing an opponent with a play book execution passing attempts >1.3 with a total of <48 and a time of possession for >23 in their last game, 51-7 ATS since 1994. San Diego is in a negative situation for home teams with an Over % >90, coming off back-to-back points against <21, 2-18 ATS since 1994.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play AGAINST a Monday conference home team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 9 points) with a TOTAL over 35 points off a SU loss of less than 5 points in its last game, 16-0-1 ATS since 1995.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* NEW YORK JETS +9
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Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
PERFECT MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ELITE WINNER
San Diego -8
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
LATE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER
LA ANGELS with Santana -144
Wise Guy Insider Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE SUNDAY NIGHT ESPN TOTALS BLOWOUT
NY Jets and San Diego UNDER 45.5
Re: Monday Premium Service Plays
Chargers -9 (POD)
Brett Favre! Nearly 10 Points! Hell Yea! Too easy on Monday Night Football! Free Money! Wrong. Ah, how I love the public sheep that run to many lines without thinking twice. This is why the majority of the public loses money and casinos continue to get built. Look, the Chargers should be 1-1. There is no reason this team should have lost that game to Denver as they got ripped off on 2 calls in particular. Thus, they are back at home. They are 0-2. They face adversity once again and they will overcome it once again. If the Jets struggled against the Patriots at home, they are going to more than struggle against a furious chargers team that will rally behind one another and likely look to absolutely demolish this Jets team. Who have the Jets beat thus far? Ooo....they beat the Dolphins. Whoopdee-do. I can easily see the Chargers making a statement on nation television here that the Chargers are still here and still dominant. I simply cannot see this team going 0-3 and there is an incredible sense of urgency of now or never for this team. I expect this team to win, win big and keep scoring to their hearts desire to extinguish some fire of frustration.