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MNF: New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

MNF: New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 8½-point favorites versus the Jets, while the game's total is sitting at 44½.

The Jets lost to New England 19-10 as a 1-point underdog in Week 2. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Brett Favre threw for 181 yards with a touchdown and an interception for the Jets and Thomas Jones rushed for 70 yards on 17 carries.

The Chargers lost to Denver 39-38 as a 1-point underdog in Week 2. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (46.5).

Philip Rivers passes for 377 yards with three touchdowns and an interception for San Diego, while Chris Chambers had four catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns.

Current streak:
San Diego has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
New York: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
San Diego: 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS

New York most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 2-8

San Diego most recently:
When playing in September are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 5 games
NY Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing San Diego
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
NY Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
San Diego is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
San Diego is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games
San Diego is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

Next up:
NY Jets home to Arizona, Sunday, September 28
San Diego at Oakland, Sunday, September 28

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Re: MNF: New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

Jets at Chargers: What's on the line?

Last week's Monday Night Football game was an instant classic. It had everything - drama, intensity, highlights (and lowlights - thanks DeSean Jackson) galore, and all the scoring a guy could ever need. Though there are elements of interest this week, it would take a miracle for this showdown between the Jets and the Chargers to approach the level of that epic. Alas, they can't all be classics, but they can all be bet on.

The most interesting wager in this game might be the number of inane, mind-numbing references the commentators make about Brett Favre over the course of the night. I'd set the total at about 400 and still take the over. As for the actual game, the action is heavy but it is reasonably evenly split with the Chargers set as 9-point favorites. About 55 percent of bets have been placed on the underdogs. Given the injury reports coming out of San Diego and the presence of Favre that's not that surprising.

It's not being unkind to say that neither team has been exactly overwhelming so far. The Jets made Miami look better than they should have in their opening win, and in retrospect their winning margin was actually a desperation airball heaved into the endzone and brought down by a Jet on 4th and 13. Not great. Against New England they weren't terrible, but they were outplayed by a QB making his first start since high school. The Chargers, as I'm sure you can tell by all of the whining, have lost two close games, and they were victimized by a bad call in the last one.

The bigger point, though, is that this team never should have been in the position to lose either game late in the first place. They have a significant skill advantage over both of their opponents, but the combination of injuries, lack of focus, and Norv Turner on the sideline have caused them to let their opponents stay within striking distance. You'd think these slow starts would be getting old, but they must work for the Chargers - this is the fifth time in six years that they have limped out of the gate.

After hearing far too much about Shawne Merriman's knee we now get to be inundated by talk of LaDainian Tomlinson's toe. The Buckeyes could tell us a bit about the perils of having a running back with a toe injury. The betting challenge becomes balancing the impact of that injury against the facts that Brett Favre is really old and Eric Mangini isn't much of a coach.

Predictably, the public is enthusiastically and blindly on the over. The total is set at 44. The Chargers shouldn't have much trouble fulfilling their half of the bargain - they are averaging 31 points per game and have gone over in both of their games. The Jets will make it harder, though. They have averaged just 15, and have gone under twice despite facing relatively low totals of 37 both times.

On the other hand, the Chargers have done well at making opposing offenses shine so far, and Favre has a history of coming through on the Monday night stage. The public's opinion is no lock, but it notably isn't terrible here. Not that this is particularly relevant, but all three MNF games this year have gone over, and the last one was over the total by halfway through the second quarter.

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Re: MNF: New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

N.Y. Jets (1-1 SU and ATS) at San Diego (0-2 SU and ATS)

The Chargers will try to avoid an 0-3 start when they welcome Brett Favre and the Jets to Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.

After falling 26-24 to Carolina on the final play in its opener, Norv Turner’s squad went to Denver last week and ended up on the wrong end of an officiating blunder in a 39-38 loss to the Broncos in a pick-em contest. The Chargers have gotten outstanding play this season from QB Philip Rivers, who enters tonight with a 122.5 passer rating and who has thrown for 594 yards with six TDs and just one INT. Defensively, however, San Diego has yet to stop anybody, allowing 32.5 points and 437 total yards per game.

The Jets opened the season with a 20-14 road win in Miami as a three-point favorite and then came home last week and lost 19-10 to New England as a one-point favorite. Favre has an NFL-record 445 TD passes but only two in a Jets’ uniform, both coming in the season-opening win over the Dolphins, as last week he finished 18-for-26 for 152 yards with an interception. Eric Mangini’s defense ranks sixth in the league against the run (76.5 ypg) and eighth in total defense (268.5 ypg).

The Jets are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to San Diego dating to 2002, including a 20-17 upset win as seven-point ‘dogs in a 2005 AFC wild-card matchup. The last time these two teams faced each other was in November 2005, when the Chargers scored a 31-26 road win but failed to cover as a 6½-point road chalk. The visitor is 7-2 (6-3 ATS) in the last nine series clashes dating back to 1989, with the straight-up winner going 8-1 ATS during this stretch.

Favre went 5-0 SU against the Chargers in his Packers career, including a 31-24 upset win in Green Bay in Week 3 last season.

New York is on ATS slides of 1-5 against teams with a losing record and 1-4-1 in Week 3 games, but its ATS streaks include 4-0 on the road, 9-5 as a road underdog under Mangini and 12-4 following a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in ATS ruts of 0-5 in September contests and 3-7-1 in Week 3 action, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 44-22-2 overall, 35-17-3 against AFC squads, 7-1 at home and 19-8-2 following a SU loss.

The Jets are on under streaks of 6-0 overall (all against the AFC), 4-1 on the road and 7-3-1 against teams with a losing record. Conversely, San Diego is on over runs of 5-0 in September games, 10-2 following an ATS loss and 6-1 following a SU defeat, but the under is 4-0 the last four times the Chargers have played on Monday night.

Finally, all four Monday night games this season have flown over the posted total.


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Re: MNF: New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

Jets at Chargers
By Brad Young

It is hard to call a Week 3 contest a must-win situation, but San Diego is in dire need of a victory after back-to-back heartbreaking losses. The Chargers fell to Carolina on the last play of the game to start the season, and were undone last weekend by a controversial call.

New York has its sights set on a solid showing in front of a nationally televised audience in a series that has seen the road team dominate. This could also be the last Monday Night Football hurrah for quarterback Brett Favre pending another retirement or two. The AFC East is a more even conference now with the season-ending injury to New England’s Tom Brady.

Caesars Palace installed San Diego as a nine-point home ‘chalk’ over New York, with the total set at 44. The line has remained unchanged, but the total opened at 43. ESPN will provide coverage of Monday Night Football beginning at 8:35 p.m. ET.

New York (1-1 straight up and against the spread) takes the field for the first time since its Week 2 setback to New England as a one-point home favorite, 19-10. The combined 29 points failed to topple the 37-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 2-0.

The score was only 6-3 at halftime, and the Jets finished the game with just four fewer yards in total offense (260-256). Veteran signal caller Brett Favre was 18-of-26 passing for 181 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Running back Thomas Jones had 17 carries for 70 yards, while wideout Laveranues Coles caught three passes for 72 yards.

San Diego (0-2 SU, 0-1 ATS) is off a controversial loss to AFC West rival Denver as a one-point road underdog, 39-38. The combined 77 points soared ‘over’ the 46-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 2-0.

The Chargers appeared to have won a wild affair by recovering a late fumble, but the play was ruled over because of an errant whistle. The Broncos proceeded to score the winning touchdown and two-point conversion two plays later.

Quarterback Philip Rivers was 21-of-33 passing for 377 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, while wideout Chris Chambers caught four passes for 83 yards and two scores. Running back Darren Sproles paced the ground game with seven carries for 53 yards, while LaDainian Tomlinson had 10 carries for 26 yards.

The road team has won the last three meetings SU in the New York-San Diego series, with the Jets going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. New York won in overtime during the 2004-05 postseason as a seven-point road underdog, 20-17, before losing in the 2005 regular season as a 6 ½-point home ‘dog, 31-26. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 the past three games in this series.

New York punter Reggie Hodges (thigh) and cornerback Justin Miller (toe) are ‘questionable’ versus the Chargers, while kicker Mike Nugent (leg) is ‘doubtful.’

San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson (toe), linebacker Shaun Phillips (groin), linebacker Marques Harris (hip), offensive tackle Marcus McNeill (neck), defensive tackle Jamal Williams (knee) and defensive back Clinton Hart (hand) are ‘probable’ against the Jets, while center Nick Hardwick (foot) is on track to play next weekend against Oakland.

New York follows this contest with a home date against Arizona before going on its bye week. San Diego embarks on a two-game road trip following this matchup at Oakland and Miami.

Monday’s forecast for San Diego calls for partly cloudy skies, with a high of 71 degrees and a low of 64. There is only a 10 percent chance of rain.

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Re: MNF: New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

Winning trends for Monday Night Football

My, how the times have changed.

There was a time, what now seems way back, when Monday Night Football was the marquee game of the week in the NFL. Back when Frank Gifford, Dandy Don Meredith and Howard Cosell battled over airtime in a revolutionary three-man booth. Back when Cosell used Monday nights as a podium to pontificate on an array of sports issues. Back when 9 p.m. on the East Coast meant most televisions were tuned in to ABC. Back when home dogs barked louder than ever.

Yeah, Mondays were the night and the time was right.

It's now 2008 where Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Tony Kornheiser occupy the Monday Night booth inside the studios at ESPN. Their predecessors, Al McGuire and John Madden are working a day in advance, broadcasting Sunday Night games on NBC. Warning: if you tune in at 9:00 PM on Mondays you will have missed the first 20 minutes of the game.

Nevertheless, as watered down as it has become, Monday Night Football still makes a big splash when it comes to television ratings and games of importance on the NFL scales of exposure.

Because players enjoy being on a big stage, Monday Night Football is still a time to shine in front of peers and football fans. And for handicappers in search of winning edges, Monday Night Football still affords opportunities galore.

One of my favorite Monday Night plays involves home teams returning off back-to-back road games. That's because, since 1980, teams in this situation are 54-36-1 ATS (against the spread) – or 60 percent ATS on the blind. But when you add one more factor, those numbers get even better.

Play on any NFL Monday night home team off back-to-back road games versus an opponent coming off a home game. When you follow that criteria, the record improves to 39-20-1 ATS. Better yet, make sure you are playing on a worthy team (win percentage greater than .400) and we improve those numbers to 32-13-1 ATS.

Best of all, put the worthy home team up against an opponent off a division home game and we soar to new heights, going 20-3-1 ATS.

Here is the list of teams that fall into this sweet spot this 2008 NFL season: 9/29 Pittsburgh, 10/13 Cleveland, 10/20 New England, 11/10 Arizona, 11/24 New Orleans, 12/1 Houston and 12/8 Chicago.

Mark down the dates now.

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