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BUF -9.5 vs OAK
I took the Bills in the week 1, where they slaughtered Seattle at home. Then in the following week, I took them once again as road dogs at Jacksonville, where they won the game outright, in a game played in very tough conditions for them, due to very high temperatures. This team can be an outsider this season, especially with the Patriots being without Brady for the season. The Bills still doesn't have the trust and the respect of the bettors and even though they are a 9,5 home favorites for this game, I think we have enough value in here to take them once again. They will face the Raiders this season and I must say I'm not impressed with the Raiders at all.
Oakland is coming from a road win at Kansas by 23-8, but the Chiefs aren't exactly a powerful team, far away from that! Even against a weak opponent and controlling the line of scrimmage, the team couldn't do nothing in their passing game, just limited themselves to be a unidimensional offensive team by just running the ball, with their QB JaMarcus Russell completing only 6-17 passes for 55 yards, while having an awful 45.0 rating. If you remember in the week 1 against Denver, Russell had also a terrible performance, completely shut down until the Raiders trailed by 34-0; earning nine of his 17 completions in the fourth quarter. So, the Raiders will once again depend their rushing offense, where they had a very good performance against the Chiefs with 300 rushing yards, with their RB's Darren McFadden and Michael Bush in a good level. However McFadden is currently with a toe problem and he won't be at 100% for this game.
However the Bills are a much improved team this season, not only in the offense, but in every sector. Just remember the Bills played last week against the Jaguars, who were the second best team in running the football last season and they had a great performance in terms of run defense, holding Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to 66 yards on 21 carries. Already in their home games against the Seahawks, they had held their opponents to 85 rushing yards and jusr four yards per carry. QB Trent Edwards had a good performance against Seattle, but he was even better against the Jaguars, not only because of his great TD pass late in the game to give the win to his team, but also he went the game with 20-25 80% completions and a QB rating of 119.8! The offense continues with different solutions, which will cause problems to the Raiders. Just remember Oakland suffered 41 points against Denver at home in the week one, the only good offensive team they have faced until now this season.
The spot for Oakland for this game is terrible and their headcoach Lane Kiffin is on the verge of getting fired, according to the local press. Also the Raiders are a west coast team and they had to travel 3 time zones to play an early game in the East Coast (10AM for them), which is the ultimate bad spot for a team in the NFL. With all these facts, I think it's clearly possible for the Bills to get a double digits points win in here. They have already beaten Seattle at home by 34-10 this season and today against a team with several problems, I expect an easy win for the Bills in here. Take Buffalo.
WAS -3 vs ARI
Arizona is in my opinion the most overrated team in the league after the first two weeks of the season. The team has won their first two games, QB Kurt Warner comes from a game where he had a great performance, with 361 yards and 3 TD for a QB rating of 158.3 and everybody is saying that he is back to his best and the Cardinals are a serious contender for the postseason. However let's make things clear. The team won at San Francisco by 23-13, but they were outplayed by the 49ers. The Cardinals ended that game with less 6 yards than the Niners, however they were able to take advantage of the turnovers of San Francisco to get the win. Last week, Arizona defeated at home the Dolphins by 31-10, with a differential of +200 passing yards and +9 rushing yards. However I have to ask: is there any team in the league which can't beat the Dolphins right now?
Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are putting up huge receiving numbers, but remember that Miami was coming from a game where they suffered 20 points against a weak offense of the Jets and the Niners suffered 30 points against Seattle, so even though there is merit on the Cards offense, the truth is that their opponents were far from being tough, unlike Washington.
The Redskins after an horrible first half against the Giants, they held the Giants to zero points and last week against a power club (New Orleans), they didn't allow any point in the final quarter of the game, which was the weakest link of the team last season.
On Sunday, the defense limited the high-octane New Orleans Saints to seven points on their five second-half series, allowing the offense to rally for a 29-24 victory. What's more, that touchdown came on the first possession after halftime. The Saints had three first downs and 58 yards on their four drives the rest of the way.
"We come in at halftime, and the coaches really emphasize where we made our mistakes," said middle linebacker London Fletcher, who leads the Redskins with 24 tackles. "It's not like we're changing a lot of things. We're just executing them better in the second half. We're doing a great job of making those adjustments."
So I expect a lot of problems of the offense of the Cardinals in this game. The offense of the Redskins was horrible in his game against the Giants, but the fact the team had some extra days to prepare their last week's game against the Saints helped them a lot, as the Redskins looked like another team last week, with QB Jason Campbell being much more comfortable on his task of commanding the west coast offensive scheme of the Redskins. Numbers don't lie and between the game against the Giants and the Saints, he improved from 133 passing yards to 321, from 55.6% completions to 66.7% and from a 81.3 QB rating to a 104.1 rating. The team did quite well on both running and passing, with Clinton Portis still being an upper level running back. The Redskins ended the game against the Saints with 149 rushing yards, while at the same time, WR Santana Moss is back to his game-breaker position, finishing last week's game with 164 yards for 7 catches and 1 TD.
Another important fact for this game has to go with the factor I've told you in my pick on the Bills: the Cardinals had to travel across three time zones, with this game being played at an early start time. The team has an offensive game very based on passing as we've seen and playing so early, the Cards will have to deal with a very hard spot this week. I expect a win for the Redskins in here, as the Cardinals are clearly overrated right now, so we have the opportunity to bet on Washington this week with a very good line. Take the Redskins in here.
DAL -3 vs GBP
There were a lot of doubts about the Packers this season, after Favre left and Rodgers took his place on the team. Suddenly, the Packers are 2-0, nobody remembers that Favre used to be the team's QB and some people even dare to say that Rodgers is an even better version of Favre. He had a very efficient performance against the Vikings, with 171 yards and 1 TD for a 115.5 QB rating and in his last game against the Lions, he had an even better performance with 3 TD and 328 yards for a 117 QB rating. For this SNF game, the oddmakers put the Packers as a 3 points home underdog and the question I put for this game is to know if the Packers are a superbowl contender team or not. We all know Dallas is a contender, the question is to know if the Packers are also at that level.
Everybody is talking about the offense of the Packers, but very few people comment on their defense. The team suffered 19 points against the Vikings, where they were completely dominated in the second half and we even watched a TD pass from Tavaris Jackson (who knew that was possible?!) and last week, the team had a 21-0 lead and allowed the Lions to rally back to the back and even taking a 25-24 lead, before screwing everything up with two turnovers, which originated in two touchdows for the Packers. What these two games prove is that the Packers have been struggling in the defense and against a team like Dallas, this will have to be a major concern for them. Dallas scored 28 points on the road against Cleveland and 41 last week at home against the Eagles. Tony Romo had a terrible mistake in that game, which prevented us to cash Dallas on the spread, but he still finished with 312 yards, 70% in completions and 3 TD besides that interception. The offense of the Cowboys is extremely powerful and their offensive line is probably the best in the whole league. The Packers, like most teams, will start off the game at a disadvantage because of the size of the Cowboys' offensive line, which averages 6 foot 6 and 323.8 pounds across the front. The Packers, when situational pass rusher Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is added to the mix, goes only 6-3 1/2 and 293.8. It's also important to refer that Dallas is the only team in the league (with two games played) which is yet to see their QB getting sacked, which is a proof how Romo has all the time and space in the world to command the offense of his team.
On the other side, I expect a better effort from the defense of the Cowboys, after having suffered 37 points in last week's MNF against the Eagles. Surely a team who wants to win the superbowl can't allow 37 points in a game. The RB of the Packers Ryan Grant had a weak performance against the Lions, with just 20 yards in 15 attempts (1,3 yards per attempt). So, the team will depend a lot from their passing game and the defensive line of the Cowboys is very strong, as they showed against the Eagles by sacking NcNabb four times during the game.
Dallas went 7-1 SU on the road last season and when they were a small fav or dog [-3, +3], the team went 4-0 ATS. This is a National TV game and I expect a statement from Dallas in here. The fact that the Cowboys are a small favorite in this game gives them value and remember the Packers are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. So, I'm taking Dallas in here.
CLE +3 vs BAL
The Browns are coming to this season with great expectations, after a 10-6 record last season. But the truth is that after two weeks, the Browns may be heading to a 0-3 hole and then, all of the expectations would be ended right away. They lost at home twice, even though both games were really tough, as they faced Dallas and Pittsburgh, losing by 10-28 and 6-10. This week they come to Baltimore to face the Ravens.
The Ravens had an unexpected bye, as their game at Houston against the Texans was postponed, due to the hurricane Ike. The team defeated the Bengals in the week 1 at home by 17-10, but we had the confirmation last week that the Bengals are in fact horrible (lost at home by 7-24 against the Titans), so this win isn't exactly a proof that they are very good. The Ravens had just 129 passing yards, confirming the struggles that everybody was expecting from rookie QB Joe Flacco, who ended the game with 15/29 and a QB rating of just 63.7! The team is uni-dimensional, counting just with running the football to make some damage. They had 46 (!) carries against the Bengals for 229 yards. So if Cleveland is able to stop the running game of the Ravens and obligate Flacco to throw the ball, then Baltimore will surely struggle in the offense. We also have the factor of the bye week the Ravens had last week. In theory a bye is a synonym of advantage for the team who rests, as the team will have an extra week to rest and prepare their following game. The problem is that uses to happen much later in the season and not in the second week of the league. So, the Ravens won't be able to take advantage of it that much. Actually it's the opposite, as the teams need to compete early in the season to gain rhythm and automatisms and that's something the Ravens are lacking right now.
Cleveland is the underdog for the third time this season, but for this game the scenario is much different, as the Ravens are far from the level of the Cowboys and the Steelers. Defensive nose tackle Kelly Gregg will be out against for the Ravens and that will help Jamal Lewis and the running game of the Browns. Braylon Edwards is far from his level last season, but he has been motivated by the whole team this week and I expect him to come to his normal level this season, which sent him to the pro bowl last season.
The spot for Cleveland in here is a desperate team, which will give everything in this game. They are also a very motivated team, after all also the Giants started the season with a 0-2 record and ended up winning the superbowl and there is that feeling inside the club.
Defensive lineman Shaun Smith said : "We are that caliber type of team (like the Giants)?We're a good team. We're just trying to get over the hump.
So I'm taking the underdog in here. Take Cleveland.
1* unit 6.5 Pt Teaser: Buffalo Bills (-3) x Pittsburgh/Philadelphia Under 51.5
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NFL Guaranteed Pick
Cleveland at Baltimore
Play: Cleveland +3
Yes, the Browns have some injury issues here but so do the Ravens. Also, it’s the “other issues” with the Ravens that are giving us some fantastic line value here. First off, they had an unwelcome bye last week because of their game with the Texans getting postponed. With that postponement, Baltimore also lost any momentum they had from Week One. In their opening game of the season they did beat the Bengals but that is what is also giving us line value here. People are talking about how solid the Ravens looked in Week One but they played a team that is off to a horrific start and Cincinnati has looked downright “soft” so far this season. Contrast that with the Browns schedule! Sure, they’re 0-2 and sure they have had some issues with getting totally overwhelmed by Dallas in Week One and making costly mistakes in Week Two’s loss versus Pittsburgh. However, therein lies the key with this match-up. The Browns have played two of the top teams in the league and, in last week’s game, they truly did have a great shot at the outright win as a home dog versus the Steelers. They were simply done in by some costly mistakes.
Speaking of mistakes, we’ll still gladly take Derek Anderson of the Browns over Joe Flacco of the Ravens. The Browns QB is off to an unsettled start this season but he’s had to face two straight tough defense while Flacco faced a weak Bengals defense in his only appearance. Yes, Anderson is once again dealing with a tough Ravens defense this week but this is still an aging unit that is not quite as solid as it once was. The Browns offense does have the weapons to take advantage and their injury issues are certainly not significant enough to scare us off of this game. What we foresee happening here is the Ravens coming in a little too confident after their Week One win and they also lose their ‘edge’ after last week’s unplanned bye. Conversely, the Browns will come into this game with a head full of steam as this team always gets up for playing the Ravens, the team that bolted Cleveland in the middle of the night to head east to Baltimore years ago.
The Browns are 0-2 on the season and need this win and we feel they will catch the Ravens a little off-guard here. This is very significant because the Browns offense is absolutely capable of jumping out to an early lead here and the Ravens are not built well to play catch up football. QB Flacco is still inexperienced and he’s dealing with a hungry Browns defense that played a solid “bend but don’t break” style versus the Steelers last week. The Browns are 5-1 against the spread after facing Pittsburgh and a lot of that has to do with a “step down in class” after facing a tough Steelers team. That is the case again in this particular instance and we look for the outright road win for the Browns! Play Cleveland plus the points as a Top Play selection.
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Lenny Del Genio
SEA / STL Under 44.5
This is easily the least asthetically pleasing game on the entire board. St. Louis is hoping that going against a Seattle defense that has allowed an average of 33.5 PPG in its L5 will help get its offense on track. Wrong! St. Louis' offense will actually help Seattle get on track as the Rams are averaging just 8 PPG through the first two weeks. Seattle scored nearly double that last week and get to face a defense that has already yielded 79 points this season. However, Matt Hasselbeck is pretty horrible 35-77 passing this year and has no recievers. Normally, we'd be worried about 5 Seahawks TO's this year, but St. Louis has no takeaways. What's likely to happen here is that Seattle gets up early and plays ball control the rest of the way. Under St. Louis/Seattle is our 20* NFC Total of the Month
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My NFL 25* is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET. Everyone knows the storyline. The Cards own just ONE winning season since moving from St Louis to Arizona for the start of the 1988 season (that came in 1998). That was also the team's last postseason appearance and the Cards opened this year with the NFL's longest-active postseason drought of nine consecutive playoff-less years. So what's going on in '08? The Cards are one of 10 teams to have opened 2-0 and Kurt Warner has gone "Back to Future," looking as little like he did from 1999-2001 (well, almost). Warner's completed 70.4 percent for 558 yards with four TDs (0 INTS) and a QB rating of 128.5. In Boldin (14 catches / three TDs) and Fitzgerald (nine catches / 20.4 YPC) he has one of the NFL's best pass-catching duos plus the team's defense, ranks fifth in PPG allowed (11.5) and seventh in YPG allowed (263.5 YPG). The Cards' decision to go with Kurt Warner as their starting QB has been a good one so far, as the team's 31-point effort last week vs Miami was Arizona's 10th straight game in which it has scored at least 20 points, the longest current streak in the NFL! The Redskins come in 1-1, losing at the NY Giants in the season's first game but then beating the Saints last week (29-24). The 'Skins mustered only 209 yards in the season-opening loss to the Giants but had 455 yards against the Saints. QB Campbell looked confused vs the Giants but was 24-of-36 for 321 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) vs New Orleans, while RB Portis has been solid in both games, gaining 84 vs the NYG and 96 vs New Orleans. Moss has 12 catches and has a TD catch in five straight games, while fellow WR Randle-El has 11 catches in the first two games. TE Cooley has just six catches but don't worry, he's averaged just about 65 catches per season the last three years. Washington's defense is solid and it should get pressure on Warner. The Cards can no longer depend on James (3.5 YPC through the season's first two weeks / 3.6 YPC over his first two season with Arizona) to give them a solid running game, which means all the pressure is on Warner and his talented WRs. Washington held a very talented New Orleans offense to just 16 FDs (3-of-10 on 3rd down), 250 total yards and just two offensive TDs, as the Saints' third TD came on a 55-yard punt return by Bush. Brees, who passed for 343 yards with three TDs vs Tampa Bay, was held to just 216 yards with one TD and two INTs by the Redskins. At 2-0, the Cards could get to 3-0 with a win here. That's a significant mark, as over the last five years, 24 of the 26 teams which have opened 3-0 have made the playoffs, including all 14 teams which got to 3-0 over the last three seasons. The Cards I "know and love" will find a way to lose here. Let's note that since the 2000 season, the Cards are just 14-51 SU on the road (including their Week 1 win at San Francisco this year). A quick check of the record book shows that just TWO of those 51 losses have come by LESS than three points.
15* Week 3 Total of the Week (8-3 start in NFL '08)
SFX / DET Over 46.5
Jon Kitna opened his big mouth last year and "guaranteed" that the Lions would win 10 games. Detroit did open 6-2 but finished the season only 7-9 after losing SEVEN of its final eight games. With Favre gone to the Jets plus the Bears and Vikings entering this year with question marks, the Lions had high hopes again to open '08. However, Detroit is off to an 0-2 start and its defense has been just DREADFUL. The Lions got Atlanta in Week 1, a team starting a rookie QB (Matt Ryan) and Green Bay in Week 2, off a big MNF win over the Vikings and with its QB (Aaron Rodgers) making just his second career start. Ryan didn't have a HUGE game but the Falcons rolled to 474 yards while scoring 34 points, while Rodgers was 24-of-38 for 328 yards (three TDs and no INTs) for the Packers, as they had 447 total yards and scored 48 points. Kitna has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his two seasons as Detroit's starting QB and the Lions have gone 'over' in six of their eight road games in both '06 and '07. That's in part due to Detroit's offensive capabilities but has as much, if not more to do, with Detroit's poor defensive play. The Lions allowed an average of 28.1 PPG on the road last year and 34.5 PPG last season. In Week 1 at Atlanta, the Lions allowed 34 points. Sunday, the Lions visit San Francisco and their former OC, Mike Martz. Martz is running the 49ers offense now and he saw JT O'Sullivan (in just his second career start), lead the 49ers back in Seattle. The 49ers beat the Seahawks 33-30 (in OT) last week, as O'Sullivan completed 20-of-32 passes for 321 yards (one TD and no INTs). Frank Gore (157 yards / 4.8 YPC) has run for 1,695 yards in '06 and 1,102 last year and should LOVE facing a Detroit team which has allowed an NFL-worst 220.5 YPG on the ground in the season's first two games. Any thoughts that WR Issac Bruce was "washed up" were dispelled in Seattle, as the man with 946 career catches (84 TDs) caught four balls for 153 yards. WR Bryant Johnson, who spent the last few years behind Boldin and Fitzgerald in Arizona, looks as if he's ready for a big year in "the Martz system," opening with nine catches in two games. Speaking of WRs, the Lions are loaded with them in Calvin Johnson (13 catches / 18.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Roy Williams (6 catches / 15.8 YPC), McDonald (79 catches LY) and Furrey (61 catches LY / 98 catches in '06). This game could be 'over' by halftime. Week 3 Total of the Week 15* Det/SF Over.
Las Vegas Insider
The big news coming out of Minneapolis on Wednesday was that Brad Childress and the Minnesota Vikings are turning to veteran Gus Frerotte at QB. After an 0-2 start, the Vikes have benched QB Tarvaris Jackson, who has made 16 career starts. Head coach Childress even went so far as naming Frerotte the starter for the remainder of the season! Jackson was 8-4 as a starter last season, even though he had a 70.8 QB rating. He completed only 30 of 59 passes for 308 yards in two games this year, despite a running game that features Adrian Peterson, who leads NFL in rushing. Vikings fans booed him throughout Sunday's 18-15 loss to the Indianapolis Colts when the Vikings, despite a 160-yard rushing day by Peterson, had to settle for five field goals and blew a 15-0 lead. Frerotte is no star but has completed 54.2 percent of his passes during his career for 19,134 yards and a 74.3 quarterback rating, going 37-44-1 as a starter. Minnesota was a fashionable pick to contend for the NFC title but after a pair of close losses to start the season (also lost 24-19 at Green Bay), this game is critical to the Vikings' hopes of having a successful season. a win here is a MUST, with two road games coming up next (at Tenn and New Orleans). Carolina is off to a 2-0 start, winning both games with fourth quarter come from behind efforts. With Delhomme leading two comebacks (and seemingly looked fine after Tommy John surgery), the Panthers have the better QB but the Vikings have the better rushing game (by far) and arguably the better defense, surely against the run. Carolina gets its best offensive player back for this game in WR Steve Smith but the 2-0 Panthers will be facing a "desperate" 0-2 Minnesota team in this one. In Carolina's "heyday" from '03 (Super Bowl appearance) through '05 (NFC title game appearance), the Panthers went 17-3-2 as a dog in that three-year span. However, the last two years has seen that record "even out," as Carolina is just 8-8-1 as an underdog from the beginning of the '06 season through the first two games of the '08 season. Expect AP to "do his thing" and for Frerotte (at least for this Sunday), to play a very solid game. Handicapping the NFL has a lot to do with 'feel.' I've been against the Vikings in both Week 1 and Week 2 (I'm 2-0) but I feel strongly that the QB change is "the right move" and that after two 4th quarter comebacks, the Panthers are "ripe for the taking."
Las Vegas Insider on the Min Vikings.
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Players of America
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Play: Detroit Lions +5.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants
The Play: Cincinnati Bengals +13.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Play: Cleveland Browns +1.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
The Play: Dallas Cowboys -3.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
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WAS -3 vs ARI
This team will be much better than last years team and is currently under valued by the Vegas oddsmaker's. This team will just keep getting better each week. Arizona is 2-0 but haven't played anyone yet. TAKE WASHINGTON as STAN'S EARLY SEASON NFL BLOWOUT BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY
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Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Report
New Orleans Saints vs. Denver Broncos
Prediction: 5* New Orleans Saints +5.5
The Denver Broncos will play host to the New Orleans Saints in the Mile High City on Sunday afternoon. Denver is coming in off a controversial win over the Chargers last week while the Saints are back on the road again after suffering a loss to the Skins in DC last Sunday.
Denver has looked great on offense during the first two games of the season. They are averaging over 7 yards per play and Denver QB Jay Cutler is averaging 8.5 yards per pass play. Much of the yardage was gained against the Raiders defense and a Chargers defense that was playing without their leader Shawne Merriman.
The defense the Broncos will face on Sunday is far from a premier defense in this league but the difference for the Saints is they have the weapons on offense to stay with the Broncos. The Saints are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense this season and they have played against a solid Bucs “D” and a very capable Washington defense.
Denver’s offensive explosion actually plays against them here as we know the Broncos are a perfect 0-9 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. In these contests the Broncos average scoring 19.9 points per game while their opponents average scoring 31.2 points per game.
New Orleans is accustomed to that kind of offense, having ranked first and fourth in total offense in 2006 and 2007, respectively. The Saints, however, fell to 10th in the league in 2008 after being held to 250 yards in a 29-24 after that loss to Washington last Sunday.
Despite their struggles to move the ball, they took a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter before giving up two touchdowns in the final six minutes.
"I thought we were fortunate to be up by nine going into the fourth quarter," said Saints coach Sean Payton. "That teased us a little bit. But when it came time in the fourth quarter with some critical plays offensively trying to make a yard, trying to convert a third-and-5, or defensively trying to keep the ball in front of us they made those plays."
Saints quarterback Drew Brees was 22-for-33 for 216 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and didn't get much help on the ground. New Orleans had 55 yards on 19 carries. Brees is confident the team can bounce back as it did last year, when it went 7-5 after a 0-4 start.
"Any time early on in a season when you start playing games that count, you're still trying to find yourselves a little bit," Brees told the team's official Web site. "It's a new year. We just need to get back on track and get back to the point where every time we touch the ball we have that confidence level that we're going to go right down the field and score."
The outstanding play of Denver ’s QB Jay Cutler has disguised their weaknesses and this Saints team is the perfect one to exploit those areas. Denver has a weak run defense and a secondary that is not as good as perceived. They also lack that solid ground attack on offense which has been their go to in big games.
This game is also a perfect letdown spot for the Broncos as they are coming in off two AFC West matchups and have a division contest on tap next week. Denver is 0-8 ATS in a division sandwich and also 2-9 ATS at home off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Broncos have also struggled in the role of favorite going 6-15 ATS their last 21.
The Broncos are 4-14-1 ATS when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date. The Broncos are 4-14 ATS as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS at home versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. The Broncos are 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date.
The Saints are 10-2-1 ATS on the road after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Saints are 7-0 ATS on the road when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average. The Saints are 11-2 ATS as a dog when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road. The Saints are 6-0 ATS as a road dog off a SU and ATS loss last week versus a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week.
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to “Play AGAINST” an NFL favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average, 10-1 ATS. Finally another system that tells us to “Play AGAINST” any NFL team the week after scoring 34 or more points at home, 25-11 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Broncos to be in a negative situation that is based on teams coming off a Clutch Win and now facing an opponent who has an average starting field position of >31, 27-93 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +5.5
Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Redskins
Prediction: 4* Washington Redskins-3
The Redskins will play host to the Arizona Cardinals who are currently 2-0 on the year while the Skins check in with a 1-1 record after defeating the Saints last Sunday at home in DC.
This will be a huge step up in class for the Cardinals as they face the Skins who play in the NFC’s toughest division. We must also remember this is a Cards team who has had one winning season in the last twenty-three years.
The Cards were actually outgained in their meeting with the 49ers averaging only 4.3 yards per play while their defense gave up almost 7 yards per play. They were very lucky to come away with a win in that game, the turnover differential was the difference as the Cards were plus five in that department.
Last week the Cards hosted a weak Miami Dolphins squad in the desert and were able to get the win. They outgained the Fins 445 to 236 in total yards. That game would be classified as a game the Cards should win so no big surprise in that one.
The Skins opened the season with a loss to the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants. Washington was able to bounce back from that loss to the Giants and beat a pretty good New Orleans Saints team 29 to 24.
Washington’s defense was able to hold the explosive Saints offense to less than 5 yards per play while averaging almost 7 yards per play on offense. The Skins played well on both sides of the ball and appear to have taken that next step which is more than enough to get the win and cover here against a Cards team that has not faced a solid opponent to date.
The Cards must also make the dreaded “time zone” trip across three time zones and an early kickoff as well. The Cards have also struggled when playing off back-to-back SU wins posting a record of 0-7 ATS their last 7 and 8-20 ATS since 1992. We also note that the Skins are 11-0 ATS before playing Dallas when their opponent is off a SU win of six or more points.
We have two systems that are active in this contest. The first tells us to “Play ON” an NFL team within 3 of pick at home versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent, 11-0 ATS. The second system tells us to “Play AGAINST” an NFL team on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road, 30-14-2 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Redskins are in a positive situation for Favorites or Underdogs of <10 points in Week Two or Three, coming in off a home game with a fumble differential last season of <0 and they are not coming off a MNF appearance in their last game, 108-39 ATS since 1994. One final situation for the Skins says to Play On teams with a season penalty yard average for at least twenty points higher than their penalty average against (seas pf >=14), currently facing an opponent with a below average rush offense rating, 83-15 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: 4* San Francisco 49ers -4.5
The 49ers play host to the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon by the Bay. The Lions are an ugly 0-2 on the year while the 49ers have shown signs of life this season with a record of 1-1.
San Francisco actually outgained Arizona in their opener 6.8 yards per play to only 4.3 yards per play. The turnovers killed the 49ers in that contest with a -5 ratio in the T/O margin and they lost the game.
San Francisco was able to bounce back last week with an upset win at Seattle . The 49ers won the yards per play battle in this contest as well with 5.8 to 4.9 yards per play average. This has been accomplished by the balanced attack of running back Frank Gore who is averaging better than 4.5 yards per rush and QB J.T. O’Sullivan who has averaged over 7 yards per pass play.
Not only have the 49ers improved on offense we have seen improvement on the defensive side of the ball as well. Their pass defense has been solid only allowing opposing teams to average just over 5 yards per pass play. They have averaged giving up just 4.6 yards per play overall on the season.
This is not a good sign for the Lions offensive team as they are struggling with both their rushing and passing attack. Lions QB Kitna is only averaging 6 yards per pass play this season and has given up 4 INT’s in just two games. The answer will not be found in their rushing game where they have only managed 3.4 yards per rush this season.
The Lion’s defense has been non-existent to this point in the season. In their season opener on the road they allowed the Atlanta Falcons over 9 yards per play in that loss. Their second game was at home against the Packers and they lowered the number to 6.7 yards per play but still terrible numbers for their defensive unit.
Detroit is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 1-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. The Lions are 1-10 ATS on the road the week before their bye. The Lions are 0-6-1 ATS when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2.
Data base research has uncovered a system that is active for today’s game. It says to “PLAY ON” NFL teams as a home favorite versus a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, 8-0-1 ATS.
Our Technical Situation Report shows San Francisco in a positive situation for teams with a linebacker run tackle percentage for >75 and a rush defense rating advantage >1 over their current opponent, 22-1 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -4.5
Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Redskins
Prediction: 4* Arizona / Washington Over 42.5
The Skins play host to the Cards in DC on Sunday afternoon. Washington off a big home win over the Saints last week moved their record to 1-1 on the young season while the Cards have come out of the gate with a perfect 2-0 to start the season.
Dating to last year, Arizona has won four in a row. The Cardinals' 54 points in the two games are the most to open the season since they scored 68 in 1985, while the 23 points allowed are the franchise's fewest to open a season since 1977.
Cardinals QB Kurt Warner completed 19 of 24 passes for 361 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Warner, a 37-year-old veteran who beat out third-year pro Matt Leinart for the starting job, had a perfect 158.3 passer rating for the third time in his career, tying Peyton Manning for the NFL record.
The two-time league MVP and Super Bowl XXIV champion is 96-for-145 for 1,227 yards, 10 TDs and two interceptions during Arizona 's four-game winning streak.
The Cardinals could have their work cut out for them as they meet the Redskins who bounced back from a 16-7 loss to the New York Giants in Week 1 with a 29-24 victory over New Orleans in their home opener last Sunday.
After looking uncomfortable while going 15-for-27 for 133 yards and one touchdown in his first game under rookie coach Jim Zorn, Jason Campbell was 24-for-36 for 321 yards and a TD in the win. He completed a 67-yard touchdown pass to Santana Moss with 3:29 left for the winning score.
This series has seen the “Over” cash in their last three meetings and Arizona is 18-6 Over their last 24 games overall. Arizona is 14-3 Over after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Teams from the NFL West time zone who are on the road as underdogs versus NFL East time zone teams the ‘Over” has cashed at a rate of 20-4-1 the last four seasons during the first half of the year. If our team from the West is facing a conference opponent that record improves to an almost perfect 12-1 Over!
Two teams that like to throw the ball all over the field combined with strong technical support leads us to our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona / Washington OVER 42.5
Oakland Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: 3* Oakland / Buffalo Over 36
The Bills will play host to the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon in Buffalo . The Bills have jumped out to a 2-0 record while the Raiders got to .500 on the season with a big win over KC on Sunday.
Bills QB Trent Edwards has led a resurgent Buffalo passing attack which finished third-to-last in the NFL last season. Edwards is fourth in the AFC with a 107.7 passer rating, having yet to throw an interception while completing 70.9 percent of his passes for 454 yards.
While Edwards looks to fill Jim Kelly's shoes, second-year RB Marshawn Lynch is trying to play a Thurman Thomas' role with the Bills. Lynch has rushed for a touchdown in each of the first two games, but has yet to post a 100-yard game this year and would like to improve upon his average of 3.6 yards per carry.
A year after Lynch led all AFC rookies with 1,119 rushing yards; Oakland has the current conference leader among rookies in RB Darren McFadden. The former Arkansas standout ran for 164 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries last Sunday, and he's averaging 7.0 yards per carry.
This game falls into one of our East/West total situations. NFL West time zone teams who are on the road as underdogs facing an NFL East time zone team have posted a record of 20-4-1 Over. If our team from the West is facing a conference opponent the O/U record improves to an outstanding 12-1 Over. We also have a system that is active because both of our teams are off SU underdog wins in their last games. The system tells us that Game Three teams coming in off a road underdog win in their last game are 7-1 Over and if their opponent is also off a underdog win in their last game the record is a perfect 4-0 Over.
The Raiders are 13-2 Over as a dog the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Raiders are 7-0 Over on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The League is 9-0 Over on the road the week after a game in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing. The League is 15-7-2 Over as a road dog when facing an undefeated team after week 1.
The Bills are 12-1 Over at home after a straight up win. The Bills are 14-2 Over at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Bills are 8-0 Over after a win on the road in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The League is 26-9 Over the week after on the road in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 20-5-1 Over at home the week after on the road as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 41-19-2 Over at home after playing as a dog.
This series has seen the “Over” cash at a rate of 11-3 their last 14 meetings overall and if they are in Buffalo that record is 8-1 Over. Combine the strong technical factors with our obvious fundamentals and we have our 3* NFL Total Play for Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Oakland / Buffalo OVER 36
Cajun-Sports Free NFL Selection
Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: 2* Carolina Panthers +3.5
The 0-2 Minnesota Vikings host the 2-0 Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon in the Twin Cities. This is a tale of two quarterbacks with the Vikings Tarvaris Jackson experiment failing to produce winners and the return of the Panthers QB Jake Delhomme which has led to a 2-0 start for Carolina .
Many so-called experts had Minnesota winning the NFC North Division before the season started and although it’s still early those predictions have taken a major hit with the Vikings poor performance in their first two games of the season.
Carolina gets another boost this week with the return of their best wide-receiver and one of the leagues best in Steven Smith. This adds another dimension to the Panthers offensive scheme.
On the technical front we have a system that tells us to PLAY ON NFL road underdogs when facing a team that has no wins on the year after Week One of the season, 18-4-2 ATS. We also know that the Panthers are 20-1 ATS as a non-division road underdog facing a team with a winning percentage of .550 or worse. Game Three NFL favorites of 5 or less points who are winless on the year are 3-19 ATS.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says; In Game 3, play ON a non-winless team (not a favorite of 7+ points or underdog of more than 5 points) vs. a winless opponent off 2 underdog SU losses in its last 2 games, 19-0-1 ATS since 1995.
The combination of fundamental and technical support in this contest gives us our NFL 2* Complimentary Selection of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Carolina Panthers 23 Minnesota Vikings 19
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
We had a great day yesterday at OldBallcoachpicks
Reply #84 on: September 20, 2008, 10:41:21 AM » Quote Modify Remove
We are going to run with the Dawgs today
Moneyline Bets each game except Iowa not available as it is a pickem contest
Bet em to win
NC State +
Boise State +
Wake Forest +
Iowa pk -110
Steelers +3.5 depending on your book
Good Luck we are playing Packers and Panthers Moneyline to win
3 of 4 yesterday on moneyline plays we had a HUGE day!!!
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
DEN / NOS Over 51.0
The Saints defense was exposed in an ugly 29-24 road loss at Washington last week, and it gets even tougher this week against the top offensive team in the NFL. The Broncos are averaging 40 points through the first two games and could put up another 40 here against a secondary that allowed Redskins QB Jason Campbell to throw for 321 yards. Denver's defense also hasn't been too impressive after giving up 35 points in the last three quarters against San Diego last week. The OVER is an incredible 12-1-1 in the last 14 home games for the Broncos, and I see that trend continuing here against the Saints, who have seen the OVER go 6-2 in their last eight road games. That's why this is my Double Dime NFL OVER Play O' the Week.
GBP (+145) vs DAL
The Cowboys have never won in Green Bay, going 0-5 in five all-time meetings there. The Packers have also won 10 of their last 11 home games during the regular season and should be primed to prove they are the best team in the NFC at Lambeau Field. Green Bay's defense should be able to pressure Dallas QB Tony Romo, who will be playing near his hometown of Burlington for the first time as a pro. Romo's mistakes cost bettors a cover on Monday night and could cost the Cowboys the game here in another prime-time matchup. I believe that will happen here in this tough spot on the road, which is why I'm backing the Pack to win on the moneyline as my Single Dime NFL Underdog Play O' the Day.
PHI (-115) vs FLA
Phillies starting pitcher Jamie Moyer is 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA in five career road starts against the Marlins and 10-1 lifetime vs. Florida overall. The Marlins are hitting just .213 at home against lefties this season. Philly has won Moyer's last five starts overall and is 9-1 in its last 10 Sunday games as well, proving this team knows how to finish off a weekend series strong. The Phillies just reclaimed the NL East lead by snapping Florida's nine-game winning streak and can guarantee they leave Miami as division leaders with a victory here. Chris Volstad is also coming off his second-longest outing of the season for the Marlins and suffered a loss in his next start the last time he pitched eight innings. Bet the Phillies as my Double Dime NL Favorite Play O' the Week.
PHI / PIT Under 45.0
We saw a big contrast in the way each of these teams played last week, as the Steelers earned a 10-6 victory at Cleveland while the Eagles lost a tough 41-37 decision at Dallas on Monday night. The public knows both are capable of putting up a lot of points, proven in Week 1 when each scored 38 in easy wins. However, I believe this will be a much lower-scoring game due to the fact that Pittsburgh's defense will limit Philly's passing game and pressure Eagles QB Donovan McNabb a lot more than he had to deal with on Monday night. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin will be ready for McNabb, and I also think that his QB Ben Roethlisberger will be somewhat limited by a shoulder injury. I see both teams running the ball and the clock in a defensive struggle. That's why I'm betting the UNDER as my Triple Dime NFL Total Play O' the Month.
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
Kansas City/Atlanta Over 36
Kansas City will start Tyler Thigpen today and it appears that thinks are looking bad for the Chiefs however the still have Larry Johnson running the ball and something tells me Damon Huard might get back on the field in a winnable game against a young Falcons team. The problem the Chiefs will have today will be their defense. Surtain is out which will open up more passing for Matt Ryan backed up with a good dosage of Michael Turner. Atlanta has the capability to score 30 points today. Both of these teams matchup great offensively against a smaller and injured defense. Take the Over.
Cincinnati/NY Giants Over 41.5
I feel bad for the Bengals defense. The Giants will be able to do whatever they want offensively today and should physically man handle the Bengals. Every time the Giants score they have to give the ball back to one of the most underachieving offenses in the history of the NFL. The Bengals are loaded with talent on offense and should get plenty of chances today to put up points on a young Giants defense. Look for both teams to score in bunches. Take the Over.
Vikings -3 over Panthers
Minnesota is wasting no time in benching Tavaris Jackson. Good move! This team has a new QB in the veteran Gus Frerotte, two receivers that are banged up and Adrian Peterson a question mark to play and still are three point favorites. There is a reason why Vegas sets a line likes this. The public is playing all of their bets on the Panthers. If is very rare to see this kind of money coming in on the underdog. For Carolina they get big playmaker Steve Smith back today and things are looking good for this team. This game will not be won on offense, but with the defense of the Minnesota Vikings. This team is in desperation mode and will pressure Delhomme and the Panthers all day. Take the Vikings.
Rams +9.5 over Seahawks
It is as bad as you will ever see it for the Seattle offense. This team has their top six receivers out. It will also not get as bad for this Rams team who in all fairness played two of the best teams in the NFL to open the season which have a lot more talent. St. Louis still has veteran players on offense and Marc Bulger seems to play well against Seattle. Forget about what the Rams can do this game is more about what Seattle cant do. The Seahawks head coach Mike Holmgren announced this is his last season as a coach and this team has no real path to travel as the future doesn't look good. One side note is Rams kicker Josh Brown used to play in Seattle which will help him in the FG department and something tells me the Rams will need a lot of those this year. The line value is too good to pass up here. Take the Rams.
Jaguars +4.5 over Colts
Payton Manning has not looked himself at all this year and he is going to get introduced to a fierce Jaguars defensive line. This is big and will put pressure on him as it should slow down the running game. Jacksonville always plays the Colts tight and should wear down the Colts defense as the have a significant size advantage. The Jaguars are still having some offensive line issues and injuries at wide receiver, but without Bob Sanders in the lineup for the Colts and his backup questionable the Jaguars surely will take their shots down the field once they soften the Colts up with their good running game. The level of talent is shifting in this division and Jacksonville with a win today can make them king of the mountain. Take the Jaguars.
Major League Baseball
Phillies -115 over Marlins
4 Units on Denver over 51.5
3 Units on Arizona +3
2 Green Bay +3
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
Note from Steve Budin
The price on Philadelphia has been steady for days at 3 1/2 points.If you get Philadelphia at 3 1/2, buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get a push with a field goal victory.Obviously, if the line is -4, no action is necessary.
Re: Sunday Premium Service Plays
WAS -3 vs ARI 2* WAGER
NYG / CIN Under 42 2* TOTAL
We highly suggest waiting until much closer to kick-off to make this wager...because all of the books we have spoken to so far have all Confirmed that this Total is one of the 3 most bet so far...with almost all of the money coming in on the OVER, and it isn't "Steam"...I am really hoping that the betting public can push this one up to 43 if the books get confident the sharps won't come in and Buy the Under...So go ahead and wait with us, because 43 is just such a KEY NFL Number