Saturday Premium Service Plays
Re: Saturday Premium Service Plays
25 Dime North Carolina (Please make note this game has seen line movement, so if your book has 3-1/2, be sure to buy the hook down to -3. Do not lay 3-1/2 points).
5 Dime Florida (Please make note to buy the hook down to -7. Do not lay 7-1/2 points).
5 Dime Wake Forest
Re: Saturday Premium Service Plays
6-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (+115) over New York Mets
Note: This is our National League Game of the Year.
After watching Pedro Martinez throw earlier this week in Washington just reaffirmed my impressions of him at this stage in his career: Pedro is below average. Pete is hitting in the high 80’s with his fastball and he doesn’t have nearly the command of his breaking stuff as he did in his prime. The Mets are just 10-13 over the last two years in his starts and over the last 365 days he has made 20 starts, going 6-6 with a 5.28 ERA. In his last four starts his ERA is 7.29 and in his last two starts his ERA is 9.00. Again, he is trending downward, and he has given up 15 runs in 16 innings in his last three starts against the Braves, and I think he is ripe for a big fade.
Also, you have to understand the relationship of these two teams to one another. The Mets have always been the Little Brother and have always gotten slapped around by the Braves. That has changed somewhat this year. But they are just 19-41 in their last 60 games in Atlanta, and they never seem to play well there. And as pathetic as the Braves have been this year, they are still leading the season series with New York 9-7. In fact, over the last 15 years the Mets have lost the season series with Atlanta 14 times. That's domination, folks. The Braves are out of the race this year – they have been for two months – but they will still get up for a chance to play a role in the pennant race. Especially when it means pulling the rug out from underneath their rivals. This is the equivalent of a rivalry game in football. And we have the home dog. Atlanta took two of three from the Mets last week in Shea, showing again that they are capable of beating this team. Also, the Mets moved back into first place last night and picked up another game against the Brewers. I think there is a natural letdown that will occur in that locker room. Again, I have seen enough from the Mets over the last two Septembers to know that they are not a team with a killer instinct. Atlanta has one of its best pitchers on the mound tonight and Brian McCann will be back behind the plate (he had yesterday off) and in the lineup. I think the Braves are going to jump all over a slumping Pedro and the Braves are going to get one last dig in on the Mets before the year ends.
1-Unit Play. Take #911 San Diego (-110) over Washington
The best situation to play Chris Young has always been on the road and he is 14-6 in his last 20 on the road against a sub-.500 team. The Nationals are still feeling the hangover from their big series against the Mets and I think the Padres have their number. San Diego is 11-1 in the last 12 at Washington and 34-17 in the last 51 meetings overall.
1-Unit Play. Take #903 Houston (-110) over Pittsburgh
Steve Barthmaier lasted all of 2.3 innings in his first outing, posting an ERA of 27.00. Brian Moehler has quietly had a great year for the Astros, who finally snapped out of their funk yesterday. Houston is 7-3 in Moehler's last 10 starts, they have won five straight over Pitt, and they are 9-1 against teams with a losing record. They worked their way back into the race by beating up losing teams. I'm looking for them to take advantage of the pitching mismatch and get this one.
1-Unit Play. Take #909 Milwaukee (-170) over Cincinnati
C.C. Sabathia has been dominating since coming to the N.L. and this is one of the two biggest starts he's going to make this year - with the most important one being his next start. I think he dominates a young Cincinnati team that is still a little giddy from their win last night. I think the N.L. race comes down to the final two days and I think the Brewers play with every ounce of desperation they have today and scrape out a victory.
1-Unit Play. Take #908 Florida (+115) over Philadelphia
First, I think Joe Blanton is awful and I'm all about fading him against any semi-competent team. Second, let's ride the hot hand. The Marlins are a streaky team and have now won eight in a row. Let's ride it out as long as they are getting underdog money on them. Anibal Sanchez got ripped by the Phils on the road last week. I think he throws with a lot more confidence and command in his own park and I think he holds them under four runs. The Marlins are just 4.5 games back from the Wild Card. They aren't trying to play spoiler - they are trying to make a run.
1-Unit Play. Take #926 Kansas City (+130) over Chicago White Sox
1-Unit Play. Take #916 Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5, -115) over San Francisco
2-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City