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Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report

CFB: 2-0 this week (Louisville, Colorado)

3 STAR SELECTION

CONNECTICUT -12 over Baylor

The Huskies look to continue their super start to the 2008 season when they host the Bears this Friday night. Baylor opened their season with three straight home matchups, beginning with a 41-13 loss to Wake Forest. They’ve been able to rebound since then with back-to-back wins over Northwestern State and Washington State. The Bears have not beat a non-conference BCS team on the road since 1996, going 0-6 SU during that span, and it certainly won’t be easy here.

Connecticut has won each of their three straight games with wins over Hofstra (35-3), a hard-fought, 12-9 overtime victory over Temple on the road, a 45-10 drumming of Virginia this past weekend.

The Bears' offensive unit relies heavily on QB Robert Griffin, who has been a consistent thrower and is also leading the team on the ground. The Bears' defensive front was much too aggressive for the Cougars this past weekend, as Baylor collected an impressive seven sacks in the win.

Once again the Huskies road the coat tails of Donald Brown last week, as the running back pounded Virginia for 206 yards and three scores. Overall, the Huskies finished with an impressive 382 yards on the ground, while averaging an equally strong 7.2 ypc. Brown has been one of the top backs in the nation to start the year, as the junior has racked up 588 yards and eight touchdowns in just three games. Their has been tremendous play of the team's defensive unit as well, which has limited opponents to a mere 7.3 ppg.

While Baylor is coming on under new head coach Art Briles, they figure to get exposed here on national television.

First, we note that the Huskies are 5-0 ATS (+21.4 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) all-time as a favorite in a non-Saturday game, while Baylor is 0-4 SU (-18.5 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-13.2 ppg) in non-Saturday games when not favored by more than 5 points.

Next, we find Baylor a horrid 0-10 SU (-27.3 ppg) & 0-10 ATS (-12 ppg) as an underdog of 25 points or less, while Connecticut is 6-0 SU (+32.2 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+15.3 ppg) as a favorite of 7½-29½ points since 2004.

Despite a blowout win by the Bears in their last game, database research shows they are not in a strong spot here. Recent non-Saturday underdogs and small favorites have not been able to continue their strong play on the road in recent seasons. Specifically, non-Saturday road teams (not a favorite of more than 4 points) with 6+ days rest off a SU win of 22+ points are 0-8 SU & ATS since 2005, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.

On the other hand, after a convincing victory and spread win, non-Saturday home favorites have been very tough against opponents not off a conference favorite SU win. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:

Play ON a non-Saturday home favorite of 24 points or less off a SU win of 34+ points & ATS win vs. an opponent not off a conference favorite SU win & ATS win/push.

Going all the way back to at least 1980, these teams are a tremendous 16-0 SU & ATS. UConn qualified as the PLAY ON team in 2004 and 2005 and they qualify once again here against Baylor.

We’ll stick with the Huskies before their hometown faithful to maul the visiting Bears.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CONNECTICUT 37 BAYLOR 17

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Bob Majors

Connecticut -12.0 vs Baylor

The Baylor Bears travel to the Connecticut Huskies for a Friday evening tilt. The Huskies are looking to go 4-0 and should show some good offense against the Bears as displayed last week in their rout of Virgina 45-10. Runnng back Donald Brown carried the ball 20 time for 208 yards with 3 touchdowns.

The Bears came off of an impressive 45-17 win over a weary traveled and tired Washington State team. Bears QB Robert Griffin ran for 220 yards and completed 7-15 passes attempts for an additional 130 yards.

Connecicut has won its last five night games at Rentschler Field and seven of its last eight non conference games overall. They are 26-8 at home over last four years and won 8 of last 9 . They are a very strong opponent at home.

The trends favor the Huskies are 18-6 ATS last 24 games on grass. The Bears are 2-7 last 9 road games and 5-14 ATS in the last 19 games overall. Also, they are 3-9 ATS in last 12 games on grass.

Normally the points would be high for the Huskies and have a formable opponent with the Bears. However, with the strong home field advantage and their record at home, take Connecticut and give the points

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Root today..

Chairman- Blue Jays
Millionaire- Rays


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Ted Sevransky

4* Best Connecticut -12.0

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DR BOB

2* Iowa
2* Kent State
SO: Arizona
SO: Florida State
SO: San Jose State
SO: Iowa State

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EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS

WILLIE "D" (3-1)
Blue Chip BAYLOR UNDER

RANDY MITCHEL (6-1)
Gold BAYLOR

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Vegas Runner

Connecticut / Baylor Over 51.0  2* NCAAFB TOTAL

Guys, I highly recommend taking this as soon as you can because even though the books are expecting some UNDER work based on these primarily running teams...I have been told they will probably move it up to deter any "steam" from the outfits...whose numbers show the exact same results as mine, that we will see a lot more points than many expect...VR

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

5000* GRAND SLAM BASEBALL LATE INFO WINNER
Toronto w/Burnett -149

5000* BOOKIE-BUSTING COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS WINNER
Baylor and Connecticut OVER 51.5

5000* GRAND SLAM BASEBALL WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Jackson -117

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mvbski wrote:


Vegas Runner

Connecticut / Baylor Over 51.0  2* NCAAFB TOTAL

Guys, I highly recommend taking this as soon as you can because even though the books are expecting some UNDER work based on these primarily running teams...I have been told they will probably move it up to deter any "steam" from the outfits...whose numbers show the exact same results as mine, that we will see a lot more points than many expect...VR

TOR (-150) vs BOS  3* BEST BET of the DAY

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panos1 wrote:


Ben Burns


6* Top Baylor vs U Connecticut UNDER 51.5

5* Best Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Which way on Toronto/Boston?

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johnnybjaguar wrote:


panos1 wrote:


Ben Burns


6* Top Baylor vs U Connecticut UNDER 51.5

5* Best Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Which way on Toronto/Boston?

Toronto Blue Jays

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WiseGuyHandicapping

2 Units Baylor +12

3 Units Tampa Bay Rays -120
1 Unit Boston Red Sox +135
1 Unit Detroit Tigers -105

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Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections

90% LATE STEAM COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTALS WINNER
Baylor and Connecticut UNDER 52

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Matt Fargo

2 Units Baylor / Connecticut Over

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Larry Ness

Prime Time Delight (4-0 the L2 days in all sports / 19-11 start in FB '08!)

My Primetime Delight is on U Conn at 8:00 ET. Baylor opened its season with three straight home matchups, beginning with a 41-13 loss to Wake Forest. The Bears were able to rebound with back-to-back wins over Northwestern State (51-6) and Washington State (45-17). As for U Conn, the Huskies have opened by winning three straight games. The year began with a 35-3 victory over Hofstra, followed by a hard-fought 12-9 OT win over Temple on the road and then this past weekend, the Huskies continued their strong start with a 45-10 rout of Virginia. It was marked the ninth consecutive victory for the Huskies at Rentschler Field. Baylor has a new coach in Art Briles, who won four state high school titles and in five years at Houston, took the Cougars to four bowls. However, in Baylor, he takes over the Big 12's worst team. The Bears are 11-85 all-time in league play. Freshman QB Robert Griffin has led the team to two straight wins after the Wake Forest loss and last week (vs Wash St), set a school record with 217 rushing yards (on just 11 carries). He's 33-55 (62.3) through three games with 548 yards (4 TDs / 0 TDs). The people of Waco are very excited but hold on. Against Wake (at home!), the Bears totaled only 250 yards with just 15 FDs. The team ran for 94 yards (34 attempts), as Griffin had 29 YR on 11 carries (11-19 passing for 125 yards 0 TDs / 0 INTs). Is it really significant the he and the Bears were good against Northwestern St and a pathetic Wash St team (Cougars are 0-3, allowing 50.0 PPG and 475.7 YPG!)? Randy Edsall is in his 10th year at U Conn and has overseen the tremendous growth of this football program. The Huskies finished 9-4 last year and for the first time in school history, entered the top-25 in the polls. U Conn is getting ready to get back in the polls this year, after its 3-0 start. They've been led by RB Donald Brown, who has 566 YR (7.2) and eight TDs. He had 206 yards and three scores last week vs Virginia (U Conn ran for 382 yards!) and the team averages 297.7 YPG (6.9) on the ground with 11 rushing TDs on the season. QB Tyler Lorenzen hasn't been asked to do much this year but he's capable, if nothing special. Along with Brown, it's the U Conn defense which is the star of the team. The Huskies have allowed a total of just 22 points in three games (7.3 per) and rank 15th nationally, allowing 229.0 YPG. U Conn is allowing just 66.3 YPG on the ground (2.6 per) and is No. 1 in passing efficiency with zero TD passes allowed with six INTs. Baylor has been a DREADFUL road team (first TY), going 6-46 SU the last 10 years. The Bears have been a road dog in 48 of those 52 games, going 2-46 SU and 18-30 ATS. The Bears have not beat a non-conference BCS team on the road since 1996, and are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS during that span. As mentioned earlier, U Conn has won NINE straight at home, is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games and 14-7-1 as a home favorite since 2000. All Huskies in this one. Prime Time Delight 15* U Conn.

Las Vegas insider-MLB (7-3 run L7 days / 53-33 with MLB Insiders s/May 26!)

My Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Mets at 7:35 ET. Let me get the bad stuff out of the way, first. The Mets still have last year's monumental late-season collapse "hanging over their heads" plus they haven't exactly been 'on fire' in September, going 6-6 after a 3-0 start to the month. What's more, the Mets are 0-6 in Atlanta in '08, batting a sad .221 as a team while averaging 2.5 RPG. The team's struggling bullpen (4.98 ERA since the break) has been just ABYSMAL in its six Atlanta games, posting a 9.53 ERA. So why is my LONE play in Friday's MLB on the Mets? Let's start with Oliver Perez. Perez had a huge "bounce-back" season in '07 (15-10, 3.56 ERA) and while his overall mark in '08 is just 10-7 (4.09 ERA), he's been very good since late June. Perez has allowed three ERs or less in 12 of his last 15 starts, with the Mets going 11-4. The lefty will face an Atlanta team which has struggled all year vs left-handed starters, going 19-30 overall (4.3 RPG), including an 11-23 mark (3.9 RPG) vs lefties in night games. Getting the start for Atlanta is lefty Jo-Jo Reyes. Reyes is having a miserable season, as he enters the game 3-11 with a 5.50 ERA in 20 starts (team is 6-14). He'll enter this game 0-7 with a 6.80 ERA in his last 10 starts and is facing a New York team which is 32-20 vs lefties this year, including going 24-8 in night games (5.7 RPG). Las Vegas Insider on the NY Mets.

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Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections

BASEBALL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR
Pittsburgh w/Snell +110

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