Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dr Bob

Kansas St. (-4.0) 26 LOUISVILLE 22

Louisville is really struggling offensively due to a lack of experience at the receiver position. Quarterback Hunter Cantwell entered this season averaging 8.0 yards per pass play on 168 career pass plays in 3 seasons as a backup to Brian Brohm, but he’s averaged only 4.6 yppp on 70 pass plays this season without last year’s top 8 pass catchers. The Cardinals’ offense was held scoreless in their 2-27 loss to Kentucky and the 51 points scored against Tennessee Tech in week 2 is misleading since the 6.5 yards per play gained by Louisville in that game was done so against a Tech defense that would allow 7.0 yppl on the road to an average team. Louisville has turned around their defense, which has allowed just 3.3 yards per play in two games and held Kentucky’s good rushing attack to just 76 yards at 2.5 yards per rushing play in week 1. Kansas State has a solid defense that should limit Louisville’s struggling attack while Josh Freeman and the Kansas State offense, averaging 6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average team should do a better job of moving the ball despite Louisville’s improved stop unit. My ratings actually favor Kansas State by 9 points in this game, but Kansas State applies to a negative 12-51-2 ATS situation wile Louisville applies to a 121-51-1 ATS early season home underdog situation. I’ll pass on the side, but I’ll lean with the Under in this game.

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Info Plays

3* on Baltimore Orioles +162

26-year-old Brian Bass has been solid this season with a 4.84 ERA.  He makes his second start of the season for the Orioles tonight after allowing 1earned run in his first start last week.  Toronto was making a run to end the season, but they have cooled off by losing three of their last four contests.  Toronto is 19-34 when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons.  The Orioles have won back-to-back games now with solid starts from their young pitchers in Rhadamis Liz and Chris Waters, who threw a complete game shutout last night.  The Orioles are hoping Bass can continue this trend, and we feel he can.  We’ll take a shot on Bass and the Orioles at this great value after winning two in a row.  Bet Baltimore on the road.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on New York Mets -120

The Mets are a solid value play tonight against the Nationals.  New York will get a taste of victory tonight after falling to the Nationals 1-0 yesterday.  Washington is 22-48 when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Mets are 61-36 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.  The Mets are 18-6 in their last 24 games played at Washington.  So you can see how last night’s loss was such a rarity.  New York is 10-5 against the Nationals this season.  Cash in with the Mets as a small favorite against a terrible Washington squad.

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SPORTS REPORTER

KANSAS STATE over *LOUISVILLE by 1

The Petrino-to-Kragthorpe contrast at Louisville has been stark. If the Cards don't pick it up soon, the spoiled, angry, entitled Papa Johners might send the East Carolina security crew after their head coach. Lots of offense from the 2007 versions of these teams landed in the NFL this year. Unfortunately for Louisville?s defense, K-State's yardage-making QB Freeman remains while Hunter Cant-Do It-Well hasn't been much more than a name with a number for Louisville. KANSAS STATE, 23-22.


Power Sweep

Kansas St at LOUISVILLE - KSU held the nation’s top scoring off (#8 UL) to less than half its avg & fewest pts in nearly a yr in their last & only meeting in ‘06 (Prince’s 1st yr as HC). We did win a 3H LPS as the Cards (-14) won on the road 24-6 & it was QB Cantwell’s 1st road start and he hit 18-26 for 173 with UL having a 401-247 yd edge. UL has just 9 starters back and while KSt has just 12 they also have a large JUCO infusion like the days of old. The Cards were 16-2 ATS at home prior to Kragthorpe but just 1-5 under him. KSt, however, has gone 1-6 ATS vs non-conf BCS tms away from Manhattan.


Winning Points

Kansas State over Louisville* by 1

We are not enamored with the polish of the Wildcats, particularly away from Manhattan. But until we see some kind of positive results from the Big East, all shadings must be against that grouping in competitive non-conference affairs. KANSAS STATE 28-27.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Andre Gomes

PHI (-130) vs ATL

The Phillies are coming to this game with an huge momentum, as they come from a sweep against the Brewers, which not only put them closer to the Mets in the fight for the division, but also put them with an equal record to the Brewers in the fight for the NL Wildcard. Today they will begin a very important series against the Braves and they will send their most consistent pitcher: Jamie Moyer. The southpaw has been managing to get very important quality starts, helping the Phillies to win pivotal games, as for example he is 3-0 with 2.50 ERA on his last 3 outings against the Cubs, the Mets and the Brewers, with all of them being contender teams.

On the other side, the Braves are also in a good phase with 5 wins in their last 6 games and they will send today James Parr, who will make his 3rd start for the team. He had two great performances in his first two outings, by not allowing any run in 12 innings and that's the main reason why the Braves don't have an higher price for today. However we have to remember that he faced in those outings the Nationals and the Rockies and these two teams are far from the level he will face today against the Phillies, especially when they are coming from a sweep against the Brewers.

Atlanta hasn't been managing to get good results vs LHP lately, with the Braves being 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs LHP. Both teams are coming from an off day and the Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day. This series is extremely important for the Phillies and they will use their best pitcher today, who is 11-4 against the money line in road games this season, against a team who is terrible after an upset, as they are just 4-15 against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Phillies to win in here. Double Dime Play.

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David Malinsky

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds Sep 17, 2008 7:10PM
PICK: 4* CINCINNATI

We want to get behind Aaron Harang here. And with his 4-16/4.96 in the pitching forms, we are among the only ones looking in that direction. That is part of why a St. Louis team mired in an 0-6 slide is a road favorite, and also why we are seeing a full “9” for this Total with two slumping offenses involved. So we will play both Harang options in this game, and use some sequencing notions to our advantage.

The Cardinals have been held to three runs or less five times in their losing streak, including four deuces. They have scored more than five runs one time in their last 11 games, and in that one only reached six. So here is how it works. If the Cardinals score five runs or less, we can not get hurt much. A 5-4 St. Louis victory leaves us with an 0-1-1, but any other score with the Cardinals on five is no worse than a split. Make the St. Louis production four or less, which we project, and there is a good chance to make a serious profit.

Which takes us to Harang. The Cincinnati right-hander has been one of the most consistent performers in the Major Leagues in recent years, including a combined 32-17/3.75 in the 2006-07 seasons. So does the fact that his current ERA is more than a full run above that cause us concern? No. The problem is that he has had to battle through an injury that was worse than originally thought, which led to an awful beginning to the season. That works for us, because his early numbers were so bad that there are not enough innings left in the season to correct them. As such, an outstanding current run has gone un-noticed by the markets. He has worked to a solid 2.45 over his last five outings, a span in which he has allowed only 28 hits in 33 innings, while sporting a solid ratio of 26 strikeouts vs. only nine walks. When competitors like him get on a roll we can confidently back them to make up for lost time, and the Harang we expect to see tonight is one that will pitch as though the playoffs were on the line. With the bullpen well-set behind him, we can confidently call for the slumping Cardinal offense to be held in check again, and by working both ends of this equation a weak Cincinnati lineup is reduced to being a lesser concern.

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Ben Burns

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under

Yesterday's game finished with nine runs. However, it easily could have been lower-scoring as it was only 1-0 in the bottom of the sixth inning. The Reds have now played nine straight games which produced nine combined runs or less. As for the Cardinals, they haven't been hitting well at all and have now seen nine of their last 11 games produce nine combined runs or less. With both starters in excellent current form, this evening's matchup has the makings of another relatively low-scoring affair. Harang has seen the 'under' go 3-0 his last three starts and has a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in those games. They had final scores of 3-2, 4-3 and 3-2. Last time out, he allowed just one (unearned) run through seven innings. While he hasn't been getting any run support, Wellemeyer has been even better. Over his last three starts, he's posted an outstanding 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Those games all finished below the number with scores of 3-0, 5-3 and 3-2. Consider the UNDER (1*)

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Los Angeles Dodgers -172

The Dodgers have won back-to-back games at Pittsburgh and I like them to make it three straight tonight.  The Dodgers are an impressive 42-13 in the last 55 meetings and 24-6 in the last 30 meetings in Pittsburgh .  The Dodgers are 14-2 in their last 16 overall and 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Pirates are 4-12 in their last 16 home games and they haven't been able to buy a win with Duke on the hill.  We won't bother listing him because I think the Pirates would lose with Nolan Ryan on the mound in his prime right now, but the Pirates are 6-21 in Dukes last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-6 in Dukes last 6 home starts.  Take the Dodgers.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jorge Gonzalez

LA DODGERS -1½

The Los Angeles Dodgers are on fire winning 14 of their 16 games. They are 10-1 after allowing two or less runs in the previous game. The Dodgers are in the lead of The National League West Division with a record of 79-72. Case Blake has been an additional player besides Manny Ramirez that has turned the Dodger’s season around. Since Blake has come over to the Dodgers, 48 games, Blake has 10 home runs and 23 RBI’s. "When we got Casey Blake, it sort of became some glue we needed for this ball club to mesh," manager Joe Torre said. "Just the way he prepares and goes about his business. I know you've heard the expression, he's a blue-collar guy who just goes and plays baseball". The Dodgers have won its fourth straight at Pittsburgh and improved to 22-6 overall at PNC Park. Take the Dodgers -1½

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dave Malinsky

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

4* CINCINNATI over ST. LOUIS
4* ST. LOUIS/CINCINNATI Under

We want to get behind Aaron Harang here. And with his 4-16/4.96 in the pitching forms, we are among the only ones looking in that direction. That is part of why a St. Louis team mired in an 0-6 slide is a road favorite, and also why we are seeing a full “9” for this Total with two slumping offenses involved. So we will play both Harang options in this game, and use some sequencing notions to our advantage.

The Cardinals have been held to three runs or less five times in their losing streak, including four deuces. They have scored more than five runs one time in their last 11 games, and in that one only reached six. So here is how it works. If the Cardinals score five runs or less, we can not get hurt much. A 5-4 St. Louis victory leaves us with an 0-1-1, but any other score with the Cardinals on five is no worse than a split. Make the St. Louis production four or less, which we project, and there is a good chance to make a serious profit.

Which takes us to Harang. The Cincinnati right-hander has been one of the most consistent performers in the Major Leagues in recent years, including a combined 32-17/3.75 in the 2006-07 seasons. So does the fact that his current ERA is more than a full run above that cause us concern? No. The problem is that he has had to battle through an injury that was worse than originally thought, which led to an awful beginning to the season. That works for us, because his early numbers were so bad that there are not enough innings left in the season to correct them. As such, an outstanding current run has gone un-noticed by the markets. He has worked to a solid 2.45 over his last five outings, a span in which he has allowed only 28 hits in 33 innings, while sporting a solid ratio of 26 strikeouts vs. only nine walks. When competitors like him get on a roll we can confidently back them to make up for lost time, and the Harang we expect to see tonight is one that will pitch as though the playoffs were on the line. With the bullpen well-set behind him, we can confidently call for the slumping Cardinal offense to be held in check again, and by working both ends of this equation a weak Cincinnati lineup is reduced to being a lesser concern.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Boston +115 at TAMPA BAY

Take the Red Sox tonight over the Rays.

Great late-season series between these two and I’m siding with the knuckleballer Tim Wakefield.

Wakefield has been in this position all throughout his career, and there’s nothing more challenging to hit than a knuckleball when it’s doing its thing.  The Boston right-hander is 19-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 30 career games against Tampa.

I don’t care what Tampa teams those numbers came against, it’s still pretty impressive.

The Rays will counter with Matt Garza, who is 11-9 with a 3.60 ERA on the year.  But the right-hander has stumbled a bit down the stretch, going 0-2 with a 4.24 ERA in his last three starts.

Take the Red Sox as they grab the road win.

3♦ BOSTON

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Matt Rivers

For Wednesday take the Indians minus 1 1/2 runs.

Cliff Lee has been an absolutely amazing story this season. It's a total shame that the soon to be Cy Young award winner will not be in the postseason. The southpaw was so bad last season that he was sent down to the minor leagues and most people lost hope for him knowing that he had great stuff but apparently he was not going to put it all together as so many young pitchers seem to fail to do.

The Indians have had a terrible season when compared to the high hopes after last season's successful run, save blowing it against the Red Sox, but the one bright spot in Lee has been complete money all season long. The southpaw has been complete gold overall and for gamblers and nothing at all has changed of late as the Tribe win game after game after game with their ace on the bump.

Minnesota needs to win every game if they want to beat out the White Sox and gain a berth in the postseason buit today's task may just be a bit much. The Twinkies have been overachieving this season and have a very solid pitcher today in Scott Baker who can hold his own but I have seen it too many times where Lee and the Indians just continue to win and cash the ticket going away.

The Twins have two studs in Mauer and Morneau but both are lefties and should have their hands full here with the southpaw. In the end there is no reason to believe that Lee will be anything but great as he is on a mission and continues to try and lock down that Cy Young award.

Baker may be good but that should not be good enough as the Cliff Lee train just keeps on chugging along in something like a 4-1 win here!

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Craig Trapp

Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees   
Play: Chicago White Sox 

Don't be surprised if this one is a slugest. Both pitchers are young with not much starting experience in the big leagues. NYY are out of the playoff picture and are just playing the season our whereas the CHW are up 2 1/2 games on MIN and need to win this one. CHW will pull this one out late and maybe score double digits here. 

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Lenny Del Genio

Game: Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

We always look to go against pitchers making their return from an extended stay on the DL, so we'll go against the Yankees and Phil Hughes, who makes his first start since April, tonight. What is all this hype about Hughes, anyway? Prior to going on the disabled list, the Bronx Bombers had won only one of his five starts and his ERA was 9.00. The Yankees are dead anyways, and are facing a White Sox team involved in a heated pennant race in the AL Central. Take Chicago White Sox.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Erik Scheponik

Kansas State vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville   

Cardinals have not been a home underdog since 2002 and only twice since the turn of the century (2-0 SU/ATS). They are 41-7 SU at Papa John's Stadium during that time frame, and the atmosphere should be very unfriendly for a televised night game. Steve Kragthorpe is under a bit of fire here, but there is enough back talent on this team to be bowl caliber this season. KSU is also a bowl-caliber squad but offf of a 5-7 season and having only blown out North Texas and 1AA Montana St thus far this season, I'm not sure they've proven enough to be laying points at this venue. They took two TD's from Lousiville at home two years ago, and although these aren't the same Cardinals, that equates to about a 25 pt. line swing when adjusted for home field. KSU by only 1. 

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Boston +115 at TAMPA BAY

If oddsmakers want to give me Wakefield at plus money, coming off his best start of the season, against a team he's dominated over his career... That's fine by me, as we ride the veteran knuckler and the Red Sox right past the Rays in tonight's rubber match!

Wakefield dominated the Jays in his last start, tossing 8 scoreless, allowing only 3 hits! Look for him to build off that effort against a Rays team he's totally dominated throughout his career, going 17-4 with a 3.23 ERA in 30 career starts against them! He's 0-1 against them this season in 2 starts, but has posted a solid 2.77 ERA over that span!

Second game of this series was a stark contrast to the first, which featured plenty of runs from this Red Sox offense. However, yesterday they went cold, as Sonnanstine and the Rays 'pen comined to allow just 1 unearned run. Look for the Red Sox offense to reawaken tonight versus Matt Garza, who's got a couple things going against him in this match up.

Garza hasn't exactly been consistent this season, following impressive starts with head scratching efforts. He's allowed 4 runs apiece in 3 of his last 4 home starts, including a loss to the Yankees in his last one at Tropicana. Note, the Rays have lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and right now, Garza finds himself plenty vulnerable against a powerhouse Boston batting order. He's also 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in 3 career starts against the Red Sox.

In the end, although it seems rather simplistic, the Rays win when they pitch well. Sonnanstine proved that point yesterday, but this time around, Garza can hardly be counted on, especially the way he's been pitching of late. In the end, Red Sox come out swinging, as they ride Wakefield to the W in this one!

Take Boston behind Wakefield over Tampa Bay and Garza in this MLB match up.

2♦ BOSTON

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Gina

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Giants have not been successful versus the Diamondbacks in Arizona and right-hander Brandon Webb. San Francisco is 5-13 in their last 18 games at Chase Field and have lost five of the last six contests, 0-3 this season when Webb is on the mound. Go with the Diamondbacks. The Giants have lost eight of their last 12 road games.

Arizona Diamondbacks -220

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under

The St. Louis Cardinals are averaging less than three runs during their past six games. Now the Cardinals draw Aaron Harang, who is having a horrible season.

But Harang has finally started to pitch well. He's put together five straight quality starts. His ERA during this span is 2.45.

The 'under' is 8-2-1 during St. Louis' past 11 games.

The Reds figure to be held in check by St. Louis starter Todd Wellemeyer. He's been at his best on the road compiling a 4-1 away mark with a 2.87 ERA in 13 starts.

Wellemeyer should be especially motivated because he'll be pitching in front of family and friends. He's from nearby Louisville, Ky.

This has been an 'under' series with the 'under' going 9-4-1 in the past 14 games between these two clubs.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Larry Ness

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

Aaron Harang of the Reds entered this season off back-to-back 16 win seasons, pitching for a team which played .494 baseball in '06 and .444 in '07. Even more impressively, the Reds went 24-10 (plus-$1,347) in his starts last year, making him MLB's biggest "money-maker." How quickly things can change. The Reds are once again playing sub-.500 baseball in '08 (.460) but Harang's year has been a 'nightmare.' He's 4-16 with a 4.96 ERA, with the team going 10-16 (minus-$749) in his 26 starts. He's been just AWFUL against Central Division foes, going 1-9 with a 6.14 ERA in 13 starts, including 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA in two starts versus the Cards. Opposing Harang will be Todd Wellemeyer, who is 12-7 with a 3.63 ERA. Wellemeyer has pitched very well away from home this year, going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 starts. It's not his fault that the Cards are just 6-7 in those 13 starts, as he's been very good. However, I feel his luck should change here, against Harang. Take St Louis.

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