Situational betting: Week 4 college opportunities

Situational betting: Week 4 college opportunities

Situational betting: Week 4 college opportunities
By MARC LAWRENCE

Our powerful database tells us that Game 4 is a critical turning point for most college football teams, especially if they're playing off their first loss of the season.

From a handicapping perspective, the game venue goes a long way in determining Game 4 against the spread (ATS) results as well. Check out the situations of teams in Game 4, off their initial loss of the season since 1980:

Teams playing at home in this role tend to perform poorly. They are 69-91-1 ATS overall. Home teams in that role this week include Arizona State, Arkansas State, Georgia Tech and Ohio State.

Bring their opponent in off an ATS loss and they slip even worse, going 24-39 ATS. The Sun Devils qualify here. And to top it off, put them up against a team that allows 16 or fewer points per game, who suffered an ATS loss last game and they nearly drop off the map at 1-16 ATS.

Arizona State will find out what it’s like to be in this role when they host Georgia this week.

Teams playing on the road in this role have somehow found pointspread success at 88-65-1 ATS. This week finds Arizona, Iowa State and Rice taking to the road after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week.

The worse their defense performed, the better they seem to fare on the road in these Game 4 situations. That’s confirmed by the fact that teams who surrendered 36 or more points are 34-12-1 ATS.

Both Arizona and Rice double clutch here. And if these teams allowed three dozen or more points and allow 25 or fewer PPG on the season, they shift smoothly, going 24-5-1 ATS.

Arizona will go through all four speeds this week when the Wildcats take on UCLA.

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