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UFC Fight Night 15
UFC Fight Night 15
UFC Fight Night 15: Neer vs. Diaz analysis and pick
By STAN LEUNG
UFC Fight Night 15
Saturday September 17, 6:00 PM EST
Nate Diaz (-185) vs. Josh Neer (+155)
Nate Diaz (9-2) has too many weapons for Neer and is better in almost every category. The online UFC betting lines currently have Diaz at around -185 but that’s a steal.
I can see these odds going up to as high as -240 by the time the fight hits Wednesday night in Nebraska, which will be aired on Spike TV on UFC Fight Night Live.
Josh “The Dentist” Neer (21-6-1) is a prototypical midwest fighter. He has a solid background in wrestling and he trains at Miletich Martial Arts. I have no idea why, but Miletich fighters are nowhere near as dominant as they once were. It may be the fact that mixed martial arts has changed and Miletich fighters haven’t.
Neer is a wrestler with decent striking skills but he is not a complete mixed martial arts fighter. People call Neer The Dentist because he has heavy handed striking skills but in reality, who has he knocked out?
He has nine KO victories but many of those KO's have been against below-average fighters.
Neer has wins over Joe Stevenson, Melvin Guillard, and a recent win over Din Thomas at UFC Fight Night 13 but Diaz will give him a lot of problems. Josh Neer fought Nate Diaz’s brother Nick and he beat him by submission with a kimura. There is no reason to believe that Nate won’t do the same Wednesday night.
Diaz is an up-and-coming fighter who comes from a great MMA camp. He trains at the Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu with some of the best MMA fighters in the game today. He routinely rolls with his brother Nick Diaz, top welterweight fighter Jake Shields, David Terrell, and top lightweight fighter Gilbert Melendez.
At the Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu MMA club he has the fighters to push and test him to become better. He holds brown belt in Cesar Gracie jiu-jitsu which at most clubs means that you are a black belt.
Neer will want to keep this fight standing but Diaz has long limbs and he will be able to back Neer off with jabs. From there he will set up his jabs with either right crosses or set up a takedown.
Once this fight goes to the ground it will be over quickly. Diaz has great submission skills and can execute from either his back or from on top. Diaz’s long limbs make him stealthy at kimuras, arm bars and triangle chokes.
In his short mixed martial arts career, he has defeated some respectable fighters. Even though his fights on the TUF reality show do not count, he was able to beat Rob Emerson by submission. In the quarterfinals he defeated Corey Hill by triangle choke in the first round, and in the semifinals, he defeated fellow Team Penn member, Gray Maynard, by submission.
In reality, Diaz’s record should be 12 wins instead of nine.
Bottom line: Diaz is going to pose some problems for Neer with his body type. Neer likes to push the pace of the fight but he won’t be able to do so with the longer, lankier Diaz.
Diaz will be able to throw punches from the outside and jab his way out of any situation. Neer is the more powerful striker but Diaz has the pedigree and overall skills to beat Neer. Nate has fantastic grappling skills and his long limbs will be too much for Neer. Diaz will transition from submission attempt to submission attempt before he will eventually get caught.
Look for Diaz to get a second round triangle choke for a nice payout.