Sunday Service Plays
Sunday Service Plays
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers Under 37.0
The Chicago Bears pulled of f a 29-13 win upset against the Indianapolis Colts last Sunday night, and earlier that same afternoon their hosts in this spot, the Carolina Panthers ,also won straight up as road underdogs against the San Diego Chargers, thanks to some last second heroics. After those big wins, I can see both teams being in a little bit of an emotional let down situation, which will in turn have them starting slowly, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
Both teams successes can be directly attributed to their ground attacks in those above mentioned victories. Former Tulane standout RB Matt Forte rushed for 123 yards including a 50 yard TD run for the Bears . The Panthers back field duo of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Johnathon Stewart ran for a combined 139 yards . Considering both teams positive results, with the legs of their backs, it will not be surprising for these sides to go to the ground on a consistent basis in this battle.
These similar ball control strategies will burn a lot of clock time , and also contribute to this being a hard fought, hard hitting low scoring affair.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 home games dating back to last season. Panthers have gone under in 4 of their L/5 off a non conference road tilt. Bears have gone under in 10 of their L/14 on the road off a non conference game.
Minnesota Vikings +1.5
At first glance, this looks like a short line for the Indianapolis Colts when they visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, but the reason for this line is the matchup of Adrian Peterson against the horrible Colts run defense, and we feel that will decide this contest.
Peterson managed 109 yards vs. a good Green Bay Packers run defense on Monday night when we actually felt AP was underutilized, so we are fairly confident that he will top the century mark again here. Also do not forget about his backup Chester Taylor, as the Minnesota offense produce an impressive total of 187 rushing yards against the Pack.
Meanwhile, it is apparent that the Colts did not improve their shaky run defense during the off season, as they were shredded in their opener for 189 rushing yards on 4.7 yards per carry by a Chicago Bears offense that is not exactly an offensive juggernaut. Furthermore, they cannot really put eight men in the box vs. the Vikings, because as bad as Minnesota quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is mechanically, he does have the arm strength to stretch a defense.
Now Peyton Manning is obviously the better quarterback here, but he was not himself in the opener after missing the entire preseason, and he looks to be in need of another few games to work the kinks out, Now granted, he was under pressure from the Bears defense, but that should be the case again this week, as Minnesota probably has the best defensive line in football and the Colts are still without All-Pro center Jeff Saturday.
Finally, the X-factor here just may be Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, who who served that same role for the Colts until 2006. Well, Indianapolis has not had much turnover in personnel the last two years, so the Vikings should have a great idea of what the Colts want to run.
Pick: Vikings +1.5
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals Under 39.0
Neither the Miami Dolphins nor the Arizona Cardinals did much offensively last week, and we expect little to change this time around.
Now granted, the Cardinals did manage 23 points, but Kurt Warner has rather ordinary numbers, passing for just 197 yards on 6.6 yards per pass attempt. They did get over 100 yards rushing from Edgerrin James, but keep in mind this was vs. a San Francisco 49ers defense that is not as good as this Miami defensive unit.
The problems of the Miami offense were more apparent in a 20-14 loss to the New York Jets. The Dolphins did absolutely nothing on the ground, rushing for a measly 49 yards on a microscopic 2.9 yards per carry. This forced new quarterback Chad Pennington to hoist 43 passes, and most of those were of the dink and dunk variety, as he averaged a low 5.8 yards per attempt.
We look for both teams to employ similar game plans this week, resulting in a combined point output in the low 30s.
Pick: Dolphins, Cardinals Under 39
Miami Dolphins +6.5
Last week the Miami Dolphins began a new era under Head Coach Tony Sparano and player personnel director Bill Parcells. Although they lost, there were some positives for the team to take into their game this week against Arizona. We are going to go with the Fins in this AFC/NFC battle +6.5.
In the loss to the Jets, Miami surprisingly turned into a pass happy team. New quarterback Chad Pennington threw 43 passes while the Dolphins ran the ball just 17 times. The Jets did hold the Dolphins to 2.9 yards per carry but 17 attempts are hardly enough to get anything going. The Miami coaches no doubt went over this as they game planned for the Cardinals, and they will without question look to get things working on the ground this week.
Miami probably took note of what San Francisco did to Arizona too, running for 108 yards on just 20 attempts (5.4 ypc). Sparano knows that if Arizona holds the ball for over 37 minutes like they did against the 49ers that his team will lose. This will be combated with more carries being given to Williams and Brown. In the process, the game will be sped, up making it more likely for Miami to hang around, if they can control the Cardinal offense. That may not be as hard as some expect. Against the 49ers, Arizona averaged just 2.8 yards per carry and a meager 5.9 yards per pass (just 285 yards total).
The Dolphins defense played fairly well versus the Jets. They held Thomas Jones and the ground game to 3.6 yards per carry and they limited New York to less than 300 yards of total offense. If they can do that again this week, they will stay close enough to make this a game. The only reason the 49ers didn’t last week against Arizona was due to the five turnovers they committed.
A key stop late in the game showed some character on the part of Miami, along with the fact that they held the Jets to just seven second half points. That will bode well for them on the road this week.
Things to consider: Arizona is 0-3 against the spread the last three years playing as a home favorite in September. Arizona is 1-3 against the spread as home team in week two of the season (last five years).
Pick: Take Dolphins +6.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Under 38.0
The Seahawks offense is a complete disaster area right now. We’re talking about a West Coast attack featuring a quarterback with a bad back throwing to a receiving corps that has been positively decimated with injuries. Bobby Engram, Deion Branch and Ben Obomanu were all out of action last week (and this week as well). Their lone remaining proven receiving threat, Nate Burleson, got hurt last week, out for the year. That leaves Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent and Logan Payne, a trio with nine career catches between them, to be the difference makers in this timing based offense.
To make matters even worse, the Seahawks have shown no signs of improving a subpar running game from last year. Their big free agent signee, RB Julius Jones, managed only 45 yards on the ground last week, 24 of them coming on a single carry. Starter Maurice Morris got hurt last week and won’t play this time around. The Seahawks offensive line was mediocre at best in their opener, with Hasselbeck taking five sacks and the runners consistently getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. This is not an offense poised to score points in bunches.
The 49ers offense isn’t exactly poised to light up the scoreboard either. JT O’Sullivan will be making only his second career start here, facing a talented and aggressive, blitz happy defense. It’s worth noting that O’Sullivan completed only 14 passes in his debut as the starter last week, with only four of those passes going to wide receivers downfield. In a hostile road environment expect a steady diet of Frank Gore runs to protect their inexperienced quarterback. This has all the makings of a very low scoring ballgame.
Take the Under
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
These teams both saw their opener finish above the total. The Bucs' game against the Saints snuck above the total with 44 combined points, while the Falcons combined with the Lions for a whopping 54. Those results have helped keep tonight's total above the key number of 37, which I feel has provided us with solid value. A look at the recent meetings in this series show that all four games from the past two seasons produced 40 points or less. Those four games averaged just 29.5 points.
Give the Falcons credit for their opening day win. Everything went right and rookie QB Matt Ryan even threw a touchdown on his very first pass. That being said, Ryan and the Falcons will likely find things quite a bit tougher in their first road game.
The Bucs have gone under the total seven their last 11 home games and they've held six of their last nine opponents at Raymond James Stadium to 14 points or less. Additionally, Tampa Bay has seen the under go 6-2 in its last eight home games played in the month of September. Looking back further and we find the under at a profitable 38-20 in Tampa Bay's last 58 September games overall.
The Bucs ran the ball effectively last week but Gruden became impatient with the rushing attack a little too early and they ended up throwing more passes than he probably would have liked. With Garcia banged-up, Brian Griese is expected to get the nod as the starting quarterback this week.
Regardless, I expect the Bucs to feature a larger percentage of run plays than they did last week. As for the Falcons, they threw just 13 passes last week to go along with their 42 plays on the ground. With Ryan still learning the offense and considering last week's success, we should see another heavy dose of the run. As you know, running plays generally help to keep the clock moving.
The Bucs have shown a tendency to play relatively low-scoring games when listed as favorites. The under is 81-51-1 (61%) the last 133 times Tampa Bay's been favored. Look for this contest to prove low scoring with the under improving to 16-5 the last 21 times that the Falcons played away from Atlanta. Consider the under at 37 or better.
THE GOLD SHEET
KANSAS CITY by 14 over Oakland
TAMPA BAY by 20 over Atlanta
OVER THE TOTAL in the Chicago-Carolina game
KANSAS CITY 24 - Oakland 10—Third start overall and first on the road for JaMarcus Russell, who will experience the unique “pleasure” of trying to direct his team amid the cacophany of arguably the NFL’s noisiest stadium. Brodie Croyle (0-7 as a starter; check status) finally beginning to face opposing QBs with even less experience than his own. Raider RBs (Fargas, McFadden, Bush) imposing, but Oakland OL and WRs not. Will count on improving young Chiefs’ defense and K.C.’s crowd to fluster Russell into mistakes.
TAMPA BAY 26 - Atlanta 6—A rookie QB (Matt Ryan) on a rebuilding team (Atlanta) with a rookie head coach (Mike Smith) is NOT a good combination for facing the most-developed of the usually-confusing, two-deep, zone-blitz defenses now simply dubbed the “Tampa Two” scheme throughout football. Especially with that combination on the road, and especially when the Bucs dominated the Falcs LY (before Michael Turner, however), winning twice by a total score of 68-10! T.B. offense perfectly average (worse than average if Jeff Garcia & Joey Galloway not in tune), but stop unit expert at producing opponent mistakes.
OVER THE TOTAL Chicago 27 - CAROLINA 26—Kudos to Steve Smith-less Carolina and to Jake Delhomme (and his surgeons) for their lastplay victory at San Diego. However, the running of rookie Matt Forté (123 yards) and the nearly-mistake-free play of Kyle Orton (13 of 21, no ints.) was a big boost not only to the Bear offense, but to the Chicago defense, which was both injured and overworked LY. Must be impressed with Lovie’s depth on the DL especially with DTs Harris and Dvoracek both healthy, plus impressive thirdround pick Marcus Harrison of Arkansas. With Jake back for Panthers, however, will look “over” again in Charlotte
CKO Confidential Kick-Off
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
10* MIAMI at *Arizona
MIAMI 20 - *Arizona 17
Expect Miami to improve substantially now that unusual Pennington-vs.-Favre, Dolphins-Jets first game is out of the way. CKO insiders say no-nonsense Dolphin HC Tony Sparano, an OL guru as an assistant, is quite pleased with the potential of the Miami OL, especially rugged rookie top-pick LT Jake Long, second-year C Samson Satele, and powerful former LT-turned-RT Vernon Carey. Thus, expect Dolphins to begin running with more authority as that unit jells in front of hard-running Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Chad Pennington (2 TDP in opener vs. his former team) figures to be a good ball-control caretaker of the offense. So Arizona best not be full of itself after its Game One victory over still-marginal S.F. and QB J.T. O'Sullivan in his first start. Cards 0-5 last 10 years laying more than 7 points!
4* Carolina 31-17
3* Houston 28-13
2* Tampa 27-6
2* New Orleans 24-17
3* Titians U39
3* Bills U37
3* Giants 042
2* Falcons U38
2* Patriots U38
5 STAR: (219) PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (202) CAROLINA (-3) over Chicago
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (197) NEW ORLEANS (PICK) over Washington
(Risking $220 to win $200)
VEGAS RUNNER "INSIDE STEAM"
BALT / HOUSTON OVER
TOMMY RIDER "INSIDER PLAY"
MARCO D ANGELO "STENCH GM"
MATTY OSHEA "ANTI WISEGUY PLAY"
Miami at Arizona
Pick: Miami +7
Last Sunday the Cardinals had ample opportunity to blow out the Niners as they had a five-turnover advantage. But they ended up in a close game at home vs a team they were supposed to beat. Arizona could not move the ball in the red-zone and cash in on five extra chances. Their defense was only on the field for 22 minutes vs an average offense, and still gave up plenty of yards. Not likely they will be +5 in turnovers here again. Miami was within one play of beating the Brett Favre hyped Jets, as Pennington drove them down to the Jets 18 late, but was picked off to end their hopes. Pennington still finished with 26 completions for 251 yds and 2 TDs, so the Dolphins immediately have a huge upgrade at QB as compared to the one-win team from 2007. Statistically the Fins played the Jets to a dead heat, and overall they looked like a better team than the Cardinals. This line is based on a 1-15 Dolphin team from a year ago (that happened to lose in week one). But the Cards don't deserve to be this chalky after last week's performance. Last year they were favored at home by 6 over Carolina and lost, 10 over San Francisco and lost, and 11 over Atlanta and had to go to OT to get the win. Miami is much better, and I'll back them with the points here.
Captain Morgan Sports
Bears @ Panthers
Bears still uncertain on offense, but they have a very solid defense.Look for a lot of control type football, running and short passes, as this game is played tight to the vest.
Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Under 37
The Bears have too much inexperience on offense and their offensive line is in transition. You can also expect a letdown after a major win against the Colts on Sunday night. This game will feature plenty of running and short passes which will eat up the clock. The Panthers have little speed at the flanks with star wide receiver Steve Smith still under team suspension. The Bears defense still remains very respectable when healthy. Look for a tight game with several field goals. 16-13 PLAY THE UNDER BOYS!
San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Play:Denver Broncos +1
The Broncos looked impressive in week 1 and the Chargers looked terrible and we will ride this karma into their week 2 meetings in INVESCO Field in Denver, CO. The Broncos will not need an extra motivation since they have lost the last four games to the Chargers, but this is not the same San Diego team. LT was not himself and they are now without Shawne Merriman, who is ending his season by having surgery. Denver is not an underdog very often under Coach Shanahan when they are he covers. This will be the eight time it will happen and Denver is 5-1-1 ATS in seven games. QB Cutler has really come on and this is the year that he will be able to showcase all of his skills. Denver moves two games on the Chargers and we score a big winner as well. Denver 24, San Diego 23.
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +1
The Washington Redskins looked terrible in their opener against the Giants, but have had an extra three days to look at tape and work on things to get ready for New Orleans. We fully expect a better showing out of them in front of the home faithful.
New Orleans looked pretty good against Tampa Bay, but let's not forget that it was a couple of long plays that allowed the Saints to come away with a four-point victory. Now everyone is hopping on the New Orleans band wagon this week as they are the public's favorite bet heading into Sunday. Don't follow the public money as the sportsbooks will be laughing Sunday afternoon as they take the cash to the bank, go with Washington.
Washington PK over Saints
Detroit +3 from Packers at Ford Field
Carolina -3 to Chicago
RAMS +9 from Giants in St.Louis--upset with the number
Tampa -8 to Atlanta--don't be suckered by the Falcons--they still are going to blow
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Oakland Raiders +4
I like the Raiders to win a close game against a K.C. team that is going to have trouble scoring the football all season long. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional road contests, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kansas City, and the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. I like Oakland's young players to be much more relaxed this week and to take it to a poor Chiefs team.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
NFL Play of the Month!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Condition: Cleveland Browns
Take the Browns! We're catching a bunch of points at home in a game between two teams I have rated essentially even. This is a Browns team which went 7-1 at home last season and improved in the offseason. Pittsburgh went 3-5 on the road last season including a big win at Cleveland in the first game when the Charlie Frye experiment was still in effect. The results from Week 1 help give us tremendous line value in this matchup between divisional rivals. These two teams know each other inside out. The statistical concern is that Pittsburgh was so successful running the football, while Cleveland could not stop Dallas on the ground. That's true but familiarity and a fired up Cleveland team at home are more than enough to compensate. Cleveland is expected to be a contender in the North and the Browns' season is measured on how they play against the Steelers. In the last meeting between the two teams Cleveland blew a 21-9 halftime lead and missed a field goal as time expired in a 31-28 loss. The Steelers were successful running the ball against the Browns last year and will try to establish themselves on the ground again. The Browns improved defensive front failed to impress in Week 1 but it was a tired unit. After the Browns fell behind against Dallas they were playing catch-up, throwing the ball ineffectively and putting the defense on the field for the majority of the game. The Browns rushing game was effective when used and will be the immediate focus in this contest. If established the passing game will open up and the Browns will be the right side. Cleveland will bring an A effort which the Steelers did not see against the Texans. Don't put too much stock in one game. Look for these divisional rivals to bang heads all night in a close contest. Take the Browns plus the points!
NFL O/U GAME OF THE MONTH!
Tennessee Titans /Cincinnati Bengals Over 37
10 STAR Game of the Week
They improved on both sides of the ball last season.They have had 9 days of rest. They can take advantage Saints vulnerable secondary.The return of defensive backs Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs for the team's home opener will also help. Smoot left Thursday's game with a hip pointer and Springs missed it with a bruised shin, but both are expected to face the Saints' strong air attack.New Orleans will be lacking one of its biggest playmakers for at least the next month. Receiver Marques Colston had surgery on his left thumb this week and will miss four to six weeks after sustaining ligament damage during his team's 24-20 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday.This is Zorn's home debut and his team will be ready
St. Louis +9
Defending Super Bowl Champs are just 35-55 ATS as non-division road favorites the next year. When favored in road openers, 1-7 ATS off 1 win.The Rams turn things around Rams are 7-1 ATS as September road dogs.
Take the big points at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have to play without their signal-caller Jeff Garcia.Atlanta QB Ryan, only attempted 13 passes in his debut, but completed nine of them for 161 yards without an interception.NFL road dogs that rush for 150 or more yards are 312-67-9 ATS.Atlanta rushed for over 300 yards vs Lions last week.
Take the points
DET / GBP Under 45.5
I'm playing on the Packers and Lions to finish UNDER the number. I really like Week 2 in the NFL and have typically done well with my Week 2 picks by finding games (sides or totals) where the betting public has over-reacted to the results from the opening week. One of my winners from Week 2 last season was the 'under' in the Lions/Vikings game. The Lions had been involved in a shootout vs. a non-conference opponent in Week 1, knocking off the Raiders by a score of 36-21. Although it was only one game, public perception was that they had a very potent offense. Despite the fact that they were playing a divisional game against a Vikings team which allowed a mere three points the previous week, aided by the previous week's offensive explosion, the over/under line was a generous 43. I felt that was too high. Sure enough, the teams combined for just 34 points in regulation and 37 overall.
This season has some similarities as we've got the Lions coming off a high-scoring opener. While the Falcons are from the same conference, they're still from outside the division. Once again, the Lions face a division rival in their second game. Once again, I feel that the o/u line is much too high, based on the Week 1 results. Yes, the Lions gave up a couple of big plays and were torched on the ground by the Falcons. I really think that this defense will prove better than they showed in that game though and that we shouldn't over-react to one game. Throughout the entire offseason, the Lions' mantra has been to attack on defense and control the clock on offense. Trust me, they were disgusted with the Week 1 effort on defense and will be highly motivated to atone with a better showing this week. Note that during the preseason the Lions held ALL four of their opponents to 10 points or less, allowing a total of just 32 in four games. None of those four games produced more than 37 combined points and they averaged just 28.
As for the Packers, they played very well defensively in Week 1, holding the Vikings to just three first half points, six through the first three quarters and 19 overall. That game finished over the number with 43 points. However, that was somewhat of a bad beat for under bettors (myself included) as the score was 17-6 entering the fourth quarter before the Packers scored on a punt return. This gave them a bigger lead and caused them to relax on defense. Regardless, even the 43 points scored in that game wouldn't be enough to go over this afternoon's higher total. Note that the Packers' gameplan should include a heavy dose of the run this week, particularly after seeing the Falcons' success on the ground last week. However, it should also be noted that the ground attack may not be at full strength, as Ryan Grant is banged up. Regardless, as you know, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. As you probably also know, pass-happy coordinator Mike Martz is gone from Detroit and gunslinging QB Brett Favre is gone from Green Bay. Look for the 'new era' of this rivalry to begin with a relatively low-scoring contest. *NFC TOY
CIN / TEN Over 37.0
Analysis: 1:05pm ET / TENNESSEE TITANS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 36.5 or less
1:05pm ET / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 42 or less
1:05pm ET / Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 37.5 or less
1:05pm ET / NEW YORK GIANTS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 41.5 or less
4:05pm ET / Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*optimum OU line would be 37.5 or higher
Let's lay out all applicable OU Systems that we queried in regards to the week two NFL schedule. We'll start first with a handful of solid OU RUSHING Systems.
ALL four of the teams involved in King?s 2 UNDERS are off gaudy Game One RUSHING totals. Chic:183 yds... Caro:142 yds... Atl: 318 yds... TB: 146 yds. And all four teams are therefore active this week in some variation of a solid ?UNDER? rushing System.
GAME TWO road teams are 0-5 O/U since 1999 off a SU win w/ 140+ rushing yds against an opponent ALSO off a game w/140+ rushing yds. Both CHICAGO and ATLANTA qualify.
What really jumps out at you from last week is Atlanta?s 42 rushes for 318 frickin yards in the win over the Lions. Only 11 NFL teams have rushed for 300+ yards in this decade. And in their very next game, UNDERDOGS (or ?pick em) have gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U.
In a hot OVER run over the last 2 seasons, one of today's teams applies in an OU Rushing 'futility' System.
In ALL games, Underdogs of 7 > points playing off a SU loss in which they rushed for < 50 yards (RAMS) are 12-1 O/U in the last 2 years.
Speaking of the Rams, their woeful week one loss of 35-3 to the Eagles has them active in multiple OU Systems.
Since 2000 in ALL games, NFL teams off a SU road loss of 35 > points are 24-9 O/U... and a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 3 years. If the OU line is 40 > points, the results are 12-1 O/U since 2000 (RAMS).
In the last 12 months, NFL home teams playing off a SU loss in which they allowed 300+ passing yards are 17-3 O/U (RAMS).
In the last 2 years ALL home dogs are 19-4 O/U off a SU loss in which they allowed 4 > sacks (RAMS).
Week Two teams playing off a week one SU DIVISION win are prime "play ON" candidates for OVER players. The results are particularly good when taking on non-division competition in week two. That would have us looking at HIGH-scoring results for the GIANTS, SAINTS, and TITANS.This System is based on the fact that the two teams that are playing each other are actually BOTH off a division game:11-1 O/U since 2003 in ALL games: Non-division teams playing off a SU home DIVISION WIN versus an opponent off a SU road DIVISION loss... with an OU line of 44 < points. NEW ORLEANS is a qualifier, based on their home win vs the Bucs last week and Washington's road loss to the Giants last week. Your other qualifier this week is TENNESSEE. They beat the Jags last week at home while Cincy lost on the road against the Ravens.
GAME TWO road teams who are off a BIG division win of 8 > points are 8-2 O/U since 1996... and a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in the last 10 years (GIANTS).
"Tight" lines for teams off a dog win have resulted in high-scoring games.
In the last 4 years, NFL favs or dogs of 3 < points are 11-1 O/U when playing off a SU win as a dog of 4 < points (TITANS).In the last 10 years, NFL Underdogs playing off a DOUBLE DIGIT ATS division win (TITANS) aew 12-2 O/U.In the last 2 years, NFL favorites of 8 < points are 12-1 O/U after a road game in which they had 26 < minutes in offensive time of possession (BENGALS).
Let's examine what happens when teams come into Game Two off a REALLY big game one DOG win (like Carolina and Chicago).GAME TWO teams off a DD SU win as a dog of +4 > pts (PANTHERS) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in the last 10 years.
SEPTEMBER home favs playing off a SU win as a dog of 7+ pts (BEARS) are a PERFECT 0-5 O/U since 2000.
Last week?s final score in the Carolina / San Diego game was 26-24. It was one of only TWO games in which both teams scored 20 or more points. The only other qualifier was the Saints vs Bucs (24-20 final score). Here?s what the database spit out:GAME TWO home teams who scored AND allowed 20+ are 1-11 O/U since 2002... and 0-4 O/U off a SU win (PANTHERS + BUCS).
What's the best (or most profitable) OU Line range for week two? If you're looking for the Best OVER results, check this out:NFL WEEK TWO games in which the OU line is 40 to 43 points have gone 16-5 O/U since the 2001 season... and 10-2 O/U in NON-division games. Your ONLY two qualifiers in this OU line range on Sunday are: RAMS vs GIANTS... and SAINTS vs REDSKINS. Another reason that we must play BOTH of them.
GAME TWO home favs of < 7 pts with an OU line if < 38 pts (BEARS / BUCS/ CHIEFS) are 0-6-1 O/U in the last 3 years.
The defending Super Bowl champs looked pretty sharp in their opening game on Thursday night against the Redskins. Based on that game, BOTH teams qualify in solid OVER Systems.
In the last 10 years, NFL teams off a SU DIVISION win on a THURSDAY are 12-4-1 O/U.... and 7-1-1 O/U on the road (GIANTS).In the last 10 years, NFL non-division teams off a SU THURSDAY road loss are 8-2 O/U... including a PERFECT 6-0 O/U at home (REDSKINS).
Buffalo vs. Jacksonville
Take Buffalo +4.5
Buffalo has solid coaching, strong effort, outstanding special teams plays. Jacksonville can't run. Somewhat of a "revenge" game. Buffalo has offensive improvement. The Bills are off a big home win - will have strong frame of mind. Jacksonville looked horrible in preseason.
Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
Take Tampa Bay -7
Tampa Bay defense ranked in top 10. The Buccaneers swept the Falcons last season winning 31-7 on the road and 37-3 at home.
Seattle vs. San Francisco UNDER 38
The last four in this series have gone under. The Seahawks best receivers are hurt. The Seahawks swept San Fran last year, winning 23-3 on the road and 24-0 at home. The past four in the series have gone "under".
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game caught the attention of our oddsmaker contacts immediately. Public money on Atlanta has dropped the line all the way from Tampa Bay -9 to the key number of -7. SportsInsights.com's exclusive betting percentages capture the imbalance of bets, and show that a surprising 3 out of every 4 bets are landing on the visiting dog Falcons. It's rare that the public piles onto a visiting dog -- and rare for the NFL MarketWatch to select a favorite. However, sometimes the sports marketplace presents value on favorites.
This match-up is a good example of selling on good news. Atlanta had a surprise opening weekend win over Detroit . At the same time, this is a good example of buying on bad news. Note that the Tampa Bay Bucs suffered a tough loss to New Orleans in Week 1. We'll use this combination of "selling good news" and "buying bad news" to grab a good NFL contrarian value. We'll "bet against the public" and grab the 2 points of line value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
This is our Pepto Bismol play of the week. MarketWatch readers know that we often need bad teams to "not stink." In this game, we are cashing in on Green Bay ’s strong Monday Night Football (MNF) performance in the previous week. This means several things:
A huge audience watched a convincing GB win.
QB Aaron Rodgers, who took the reins over from Brett Favre, had one of the highest completion percentages in history -- in their game as a starter.
The MNF spotlight and sparkling results add fuel to the Green Bay-Favre-Rodgers story.
The MNF appearance also means one less day of preparation for this week's game against Detroit .
Detroit, in their opening Sunday, was less stellar. The Lions lost 34-21 to non-powerhouse Atlanta team -- and the game wasn't even as close as the score. Before you could blink, Atlanta ran the score up to 21-0 by scoring 3TDs in the first quarter!
The public is taking notice of Green Bay's strong performance and Detroit's poor performance by piling back onto the Pack's back. A huge 85% of bets are landing on the visiting Packers. We'll take a shot to Pepto and get down on Detroit +3.
Detroit Lions +3.5
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
SportsInsights' proprietary sports marketplace tools flagged this game for "smart money." Early sharp action on Oakland pushed this line from Oak +4 to Oak +3.5. Notable in this line movement is the fact that almost 70% of the bets are taking KC. With two-thirds of the bets landing on KC, the line actually moved in the direction of Oakland. This means that some big money came in early and moved the line down from Oak +4 to Oak +3.5. Big money is also typically "smart money."
We'll bet against the public and join the "early sharps" in this match-up. Note that Oakland got "beat up" by Denver late Monday night -- so we'll be buying the Raiders after "bad news." We like getting as much value as we can!
Oakland Raiders +3.5
SEA -6.5 vs SFX
The Seattle Seahawks will turn things around against division-opponent San Francisco on Sunday - thanks to an active defense and the 12th man. After all - Seattle blitzed the 49ers to death last season, outscoring them 47-3 in the two meetings.
Seattle also is a dominant 8-1 ATS win winning at home within the division the past three years - covering the spread by an average of 12 points.
San Francisco is being led by QB J.T. O'Sullivan, as the offense fell to one of the worst NFL road teams (Arizona) mainly due to five turnovers. Definitely not an easy task to now travel to the NFL's loudest stadium and correct things on offense.
The 49ers managed to average just 11 points per game in 12 of their last 14 games and that will continue in facing BY FAR - the best defense in their division.
Seattle still has a solid enough running game to display with new running back Julius Jones making his debut and Hasselbeck has the ability to bounce back from a rusty performance better than anyone in the National Football League.
The Seahawks make it a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games - marking head coach Mike Holmgren's 100th home victory of his distinguished career.
New Orleans Saints vs Washington Redskins
I don’t believe whole heartedly in the Saints, especially with Marques Colston sucking his thumb on the bench. I mean, they looked OK against the Buccaneers, but Tampa looked terrible! And it still took a big play by Reggie Bush to win the game. Counting on Reggie to do that every game to squeak out victories for an overrated team is a lot to gamble on.
Good thing for New Orleans that Washington looks absolutely lost on the field. Chris Cooley may be the coolest guy to hang out with, but this team is a sinking ship (as usual) so don’t get caught with your betting dollars stored below. The Redskins are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 because of Todd Collins, not Jason Campbell.
Take the Saints
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tennessee at CINCINNATI -1
We realize the Bengals didn't look particularly impressive in their opening week loss at Baltimore, but then again Tennesse didn't look all that impressive in winning their home opener against Jacksonville. And then there is the Vince Young sitution which has been swirling around this team all week long!
Keep in mind the Bengals are at least home for this game, and they do have a road game against the New York Giants on deck for next week. With the prospects of starting off the season at 0-3 staring them in the face, expect the Bengals to get it in gear today against the distracted Titans.
Last season, Cincinnati lit up Tennessee 35-6 at home, and while we don't expect the Bengals to blast the Titans by a similar score, we do see them taking this game in the near pick'em situation.
Play on the Bengals to even their season mark at 1-1 with the win and cover.
Indianapolis at MINNESOTA +1'
We split our college FREE selections on Saturday and we're now 62-47 with our last 109 comp selections and today we've got an NFL winner with the Vikings as they host the Colts.
How bad did the Colts look in their opening loss to the Bears? Suddenly that offense looks old and slow and Peyton Manning showed he just isn’t sharp coming off that offseason knee surgery.
The Bears went to Indianapolis with the Colts opening a new stadium and delivered a 29-13 beating of the Colts. Manning threw the ball 47 times and had 257 yards and just one TD. But their rushing game was non-existent with just 53 rushing yards. Meanwhile the Bears controlled the tempo of the game with 183 yards on the ground.
We know the Vikings can run the ball with Adrian Peterson at RB and the mobility of QB Tarvaris Jackson. They lost in Green Bay on Monday night 24-19 but had the ball with over a minute to go with a chance at the winning drive. Jackson tossed an INT that ended their hopes but this team showed no quit in Green Bay.
Indianapolis is on a 1-4 ATS skid and 0-4 ATS after a SU loss and 2-6 ATS against losing teams lately. Minnesota has dominated the AFC, going 8-3 ATS against them the last 11 meetings.
The Vikings are opening their home season with this one and they are tough to beat with that defensive line. Look for them to make life tough on Manning and the offensive line and win this game in the second half. Play the Vikings to get the 24-20 victory.
San Diego -1 at DENVER
We've got another FREE play NFL winner coming today on the Chargers as they visit Denver to take on the Broncos.
San Diego is in Denver for this one and it’s almost a must-win for the Chargers after losing at home in the opener to the Panthers, 26-24.
The Chargers got all the offense they needed for a win but the defense let them down as Carolina scored on the last play of the game to get the win. San Diego got outgained 388-316 because of the defense. But expect a much better performance from a defense that has all the talent to be one of the best in the NFL, even without Shawne Merriman.
San Diego’s offense got good production from QB Philip Rivers with 217 yards and three TDs and RB LaDainian Tomlinson with 21 carries and 97 yards.
The Chargers have beaten Denver four straight times and covered in each contest. Last year they blew out the Broncos 41-3 in Denver and then 23-3 in San Diego. They are on ATS runs of 14-5-1 as a division favorite, 5-0 in road contests, 19-7-3 overall in the division. The Broncos are terrible at the betting window, currently on ATS slides of 3-8 as an underdog, 2-11 after a SU win, 2-8 after an ATS win and 3-10 in division play.
Denver beat the Raiders last week, but is that really an accomplishment? Look for San Diego to come out and give an inspired effort, especially on defense. Play San Diego in this one.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -1
San Diego has to be flat right now. They are coming off a 26-24 home loss to the Panthers in a game in which they were 9-point favorites. TE Gates is not 100%, RB Tomlinson has a toe injury giving him some trouble, and LB Shawn Merriman (the emotional leader of the defense) is out for the season. I do not see the Chargers picking themselves up off the mat today. San Diego head coach Norv Turner is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in his first division game of the season.
Denver's 41-14 win last week may have only been against Oakland, but they look to me like a playoff team. Jay Cutler carved up what was supposed to be a solid Raiders secondary. This is Cutler's third year in coach Mike Shanahan's system, which should lead to big things. John Elway took Denver to the Super Bowl in his third year in Shanahan's system and Jake Plummer took them to the AFC title game. And Cutler sure looked like a QB ready to have a breakout season, especially considering he was playing without his best weapon, WR Brandon Marshall. Marshall is back in the lineup after serving his one-game suspension and that spells trouble for San Diego's secondary.
Denver head coach Mike Shanahan is an impressive 12-4 ATS when playing with division revenge when his opponent is coming off a loss. Shanahan is also an incredible 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS in home openers. And check this out: NFL teams off a Monday night divisional win of 14 points or more (Denver, in this case) are an amazing 10-1 ATS in the last 10 years.
Take the Denver Broncos -1
CLE 6.5 vs PIT
The Pittsburgh Steelers looked impressive in their home opener last week. They travel to Cleveland Browns and play in the AFC's oldest rivalry.
I feel the Browns were looking ahead last week when playing Dallas as they have the Steeler game circled from last years 34-7 loss. The Browns will be ready for this rival.
Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger is nursing a sore shoulder and if he plays wll be careful not to injure further.
The Browns are 7-1 ATS in last 8 home games.
Take the generous points and the Brown
Vikings/Colts over 43 (2 units)
This is my classic "Play an over when one team runs the ball well and their opponent can't stop the run, while the other team passes the ball well and their opponent can't stop the pass." This is a rather simple theory and it's been a strong moneymaker for me over the years but so far in CFB it's been diddly poo. So now I'll give it a shot in the pros. I'm playing the odds here and saying Peyton Manning won't have two terrible games in a row. I'm not saying the Colts will win but I do expect Manning to be much sharper than he was against the Bears. On the other side, I expect Adrian Peterson to eat up the Colts defense. I actually thought the Vikings ditched the run a little too soon last week. I don't think that will happen here. This should be a fun game to watch and I do see some points being scored by the offenses.
Lions/Packers under 46 (1/2 unit)
TENNESSEE (1-0) Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals CINCINNATI (0-1)
The logic behind this selection is very short and sweet. The Tennessee Titans (1-0 SU & ATS) pull off a 17-10 upset over Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Cincinnati was in the process of getting humiliated after last week's embarrassing 17-10 loss at Baltimore in a game that saw the Bengals amass a paltry 154 total yards of offense, with just eight first downs (two of those were by penalty). To make matter worse, their defense was facing a rookie quarterback in Joe Flacco and the Ravens still dominated, with 358 yards on a whopping 229 rushing yards! The results of week #1 has heavily effected this line and the public is flocking to Tennessee to win this game. But not so fast, although Tennessee lost quarterback Vince Young last week and will be starting a reliable veteran in backup Kerry Collins, they will not be able to match score for score with the Cincinnati offense. This certainly amounts to a "must win" game for the Bengal's (even thought it is week #2) and with a spread of just 1 we only need the win to cover this number. At a minimum, we can take Solice in the fact that Cincinnati cannot play any worse than last week and reports out of the Bengal camp is that players and coaches are angry and want to take their frustrations out on Tennessee. Not many people know, but Tennessee's top defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (who had two sacks last week) is doubtful after missing practices on both Wednesday and Thursday. This is also the identical sandwich scheduling spot they were in last season with divisional foe Houston on Deck having defeated divisional foe Jacksonville last week. So what happened last season? Well in that game last season, Palmer passed for 32-of-38, 283 yards, the Bengal's converted 14 of their 18 third-down chances, and the Bengal's blew out the Titians 35-6. Deja vu? Of course as Cincinnati rolls.
Verdict: TEN Titans 27, CIN Bengals 13
PLAY 1* UNIT (2%) ON CINCINNATI -1
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Threat Sports Guaranteed Selections
3* Seattle/San Francisco Under
Seattle was missing their top three WR's going into last week's game and lost Nate Burleson (by default the top guy last week) to injury during the game. This week they signed former Chief Sammie Parker, and he will be asked to play a rather significant role in this game despite having only three practices with the team. Expect a lot of running the ball from Seattle. Niners' starting QB JT O'Sullivan will be making the first road start of his career, and doing so at Qwest Field - one of the loudest in the league - is going to be no picnic. He managed to lead the Niners to just 13 points last week at home, and no reason to expect a big breakout here. Series history points to the Under as well, with the series being 2-7-1 to the Under the last five years and the Niners scoring just 27 total points (0, 24, 3, 0) in Seattle the last four trips there.
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
SURE THING NFC GAME OF THE YEAR
Green Bay -3
Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections
5000* NFL LATE STEAM TOTALS PLAY OF THE MONTH
Tennessee and Cincinnati OVER 37
Wise Guy Insider Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE NON CONFERENCE TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
Indianapolis and Minnesota UNDER 43.5
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
5000* LATE STEAM NFC TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
Green Bay and Detroit UNDER 46
3 units New England +1.5
2 units New England +105
Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
6* Packers/Lions over the total: Boy, is this the perfect mixture for a high scoring game: Indoors, two decent QBs, great WRs everywhere, and one team with a truly awful defense. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was very good in limited action a year ago, then played well again (18-of-22 for 178 yards) in topping the Vikings, 24-19. This Green Bay passing game is sensational behind WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, plus TE Donald Lee. They will have little trouble finding the end zone against this Detroit defense, that looks even worse under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry. The Lions won every game in preseason, then went to Atlanta and as a road favorite got destroyed 34-21. The new-look defense was shredded for 474 yards, including 318 rushing to a team with a rookie QB playing in his first NFL game! On the third play from scrimmage, rookie quarterback Matt Ryan completed the first pass of his NFL career for 62 yards and a touchdown, as Michael Jennkins split a pair of Lions defenders and raced untouched to the end zone. This happened a lot last year, too....and the year before that. At least the offense still has QB Jon Kitna and a slew of speedy WRs. Both meetings last year sailed over the total as the Packers won 37-26 and 34-13. This will be a shootout, as well. Play the Packers/Lions over the total
25 DIME PLAY
Note: This line is a solid -3 here in Vegas. But if it rises to -3 1/2, make sure you buy the 1/2 point and take it down to -3 to insure you get a push if Carolina only wins by three.
Now, I often have been asked my opinion regarding by down off -3. If you're playing a lot of games daily, over the long term it probably is not a good investment because the price you're paying will accumulate for all the wagers you're making for insurance that will rarely be needed or used.
On the other hand, if you're like me, a guy who only plays one game a day, and not every day at that, buying the 1/2 point down off -3 is a small price to pay every now and then. Thus, if you have -3 on Carolina today, buy the half-point down to 2 1/2 to make sure you win should the Panthers prevail only by a field goal.
** GIGANTIC TOTAL WINNER for Sunday **
Event: Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars
These two AFC teams have met the last 2 seasons. Last year Jacksonville won 36-14. In 2007 Buffalo won 27-24. What I am going with is a HIGH SCORING Game. Take Buf/Jac Over
Re: Sunday Service Plays
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -130
HOUSTON ASTROS -110
LOS ANGELES DODGERS 102
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 115
TAMPA BAY RAYS 128
BOSTON RED SOX -118
TOKAY SPORTS PICKS
NY GIANTS at ST LOUIS Under 42
ST LOUIS 8.5
SAN FRANCISCO 6.5
Best Bet! SAN DIEGO PADRES -125
we’ll back the Bills plus the points at the Jaguars. I don’t want to overreact too much to how each of these teams played in Week 1 – with Buffalo looking dominant and the Jags looking anemic. No, this play is more about the directions I think these two teams are heading in 2008 – assessments I made months ago.
Now, you may recall that I backed Buffalo last week at Seattle, as I thought Dick Jauron’s squad was in a perfect spot to take advantage of a banged-up Seahawks squad that had to travel across the country to play in a hostile environment. And after that 34-10 whipping, in which the Bills outgained the Seahawks 338-252, coupled with Tom Brady’s injury, I’m more convinced than ever that the up-and-coming Bills can challenge for the AFC East title.
At the same time, I’m one of the few – the very few – who wasn’t buying all the Jaguars hype coming into this season. Jacksonville had one of those “perfect-storm” seasons in 2007 where it got above-average production out of most every position and stayed relatively healthy. Well, in Week 1, the Jaguars lost 17-10 to the dysfunctional Vince Young and the Titans. Not only did they lose on the scoreboard, and not only did they muster just 189 total yards (33 on the ground), but they lost more manpower on the offensive line because of injuries. That OL is decimated coming into this game, and I think the Bills take advantage of it and force the overrated David Garrard (2 INTs last week) into multiple mistakes.
Bottom line: This is a statement game for the Bills as much as it is for Jacksonville, as Buffalo got whipped by the Jags last year. However, the gap has closed in a big way between these teams, hence the reason why this line has plummeted all week. Take the points with Buffalo … and don’t be shocked if the Bills come away with the outright win.
5♦ BUFFALO BILLS
Sunday take the Chiefs at home.
Kansas City is not a very good ball club there is no doubting that at all. They are also the less talented of the teams on the field today but the way the Raiders looked in the opener last Monday night how can you expect them to do anything but be horrendous once again.
It seriously looked like Oakland has already quit on the season. DeAngelo Hall was toasted a ton by a guy in Eddie Royal who is not even that good yet was made to look like Jerry Rice. The defense overall was a joke and that was against a very very mediocre Denver team that was without their main weapon in Brandon Marshall.
The Chiefs will be without Brody Croyle who was injured in that last game in New England but I am actually more comfortable with Damon Huard who is the more experienced and probably superior Quarterback right now. And speaking of that first game, KC actually held their own in the tighter than expected loss against what is still the best team in the league in Bill Belichick's Patriots and on their home field.
Arrowhead is always a rowdy crowd and one of the best home field advantages in the league. We have the best player on the field in Larry Johnson and are in front of our home fans which should be more than enough for Herm Edwards' team to cover this fairly small number.
Bottom line the Raiders are a disaster and the road can only equal more bad things today!
NY Giants at St. Louis
New York Giants -8½
The Giants' defense will stifle the Rams' powerless offense in St. Louis. New York is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games and is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings versus the Rams.
New Orleans at Washington
New Orleans Saints -1
Besides playing sound away from home, Drew Brees and his crew will be on top early against a Washington offense that was disappointing last week. The Redskins' defense will have a difficult time containing the Saints, even without key wide receiver Marques Colston. The Saints have won the last two games versus Washington at FedExField.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Pittsburgh Steelers -6½
Look for Pittsburgh to continue their dominance over Cleveland. The Steelers have won 10 straight over the Browns and their strong defense won’t show any mercy, especially against the Browns' poor run defense.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
The Patriots are a talented team and backup quarterback Matt Cassel look good last week, but New England is presently destabilized without their emperor Tom Brady at the helm. Look for the Jets with Favre to attack the Patriots secondary and seize a rare win over the Patriots at home.
New York Jets -3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland
The Steelers’ strong defense will give Anderson and his crew a tough undertaking, while Pittsburgh’s offense with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will find his targets against a Browns' defense that played pitiable last week against the Cowboys. Go with the Steelers to grab their tenth straight victory over the Browns.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6½
Two Minute Warning
Week 2 Best Bets
Cleveland +6 1/2
New England +1 1/2
Cincinnati Bengals Personal Favorite
St. Louis Rams
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Reason
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I successfully played on the Titans last week. They got a great game from the defense and scored an outright win vs. a very good Jacksonville team. That win was costly though as quarterback Vince Young was injured and will be replaced by Kerry Collins. There were some real disturbing issues with Young, who had played terribly, after the game where Coach Fisher actually called the police on him. Fisher was quoted as saying: "I was given some information from people that were close to him late afternoon, early evening that was quite honestly very concerning to me. I'm not going to go into specifics, but it was concerning to me." That's a very big 'mental' distraction to have to deal with for the entire team. There's more than that too, as the opener was a very hard-hitting and hard-fought game and I expect it to have also taken a 'physical' toll. Note that the Titans were 0-2 after playing the Jaguars last season, losing 34-20 at Denver the week after they hosted Jacksonville. The following week, the Titans played here at Cincinnati and got crushed by a score of 35-6. The previous meeting was in 2005 and the Bengals also won that won, 31-23 at Tennessee. Bengals QB Palmer was 32 for 38 passes with 283 yards and three touchdowns in the most recent game. He was quoted as saying: "We can completely change the feeling we had ... if we come out and be physical, running the ball, throwing the ball and coming out with a win." Look for Palmer's Bengals to do just that, with both these teams moving to 1-1. *Personal Favorite
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Prediction: Detroit Lions Reason
I'm taking the points with DETROIT. Casual NFL bettors change their opinions very quickly. Last week, the betting public loved the Lions against the Falcons. Many of those same people were also writing off the Packers, due to the departure of Brett Favre. However, after the Lions were beaten by the Falcons and the Packers beat the Vikings, the majority of the betting public has already abandoned the Lions for this week's game. I believe that's given us terrific value on what I expect will be a highly motivated Lions team. They've got the schedule in their favor as the Packers are coming off a hard-fought divisional win on Monday night and now playing on a short week. Note that they were 1-2 SU/ATS after a Monday night game the past couple of seasons, going 3-5 ATS during that time when coming off a win vs. a divisional opponent. It should also be noted that the Packers were far from perfect in their Monday night victory. In fact, they committed 12 penalties for a Week 1-high 118 yards. I believe that the Lions are better than they showed last week. Detroit coach Marinelli said this of his team: "We are what we believe we are and I've got a great belief in this team, a very strong belief in this team. We'll pull together, hang together, and we're going to come out fighting." Look for the Lions, who were a perfect 4-0 in the preseason, to do as their coach says, bouncing back with a massive effort.
New York Giants vs. St. Louis Rams
Prediction: St. Louis Rams Reason
I'm taking the points with ST LOUIS. I successfully backed the Giants in Week 1. At the time, I stated that defending Super Bowl champions were typically highly profitable in the first game of the regular season. However, I also stated that with the exception of opening week, that there usually wasn't much value in backing them, due to the heavily inflated lines. After the Giants won and covered in their opener and with the Rams having been blown out in theirs, this afternoon's line has become very high. I feel that it's too high. Keep in mind that the Giants won at home, while the Rams lost on the road. Looking back to last year and we find that the defending Super Bowl champion Colts won big at home in Week 1 and also were big road favorites in Week 2. Yet, they only won their second game by two points, failing to cover the inflated number. Most know that the Giants lost Strahan in the offseason. They're also dealing with numerous other defensive line problems too though. The Giants have lost three of their last four road games vs. the Rams with the lone win coming by just five points. Looking back further and we find them at just 4-13 all-time in road games against the Rams franchise. Look for them to have their hands full once again.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
3 Star Selection
Oakland (+3.5) 17 KANSAS CITY 13
Oakland looked horrible in their 14-41 home loss to Denver on Monday Night Football, but that nationally televised loss has served to put the Raiders in a good situation this week. The Raiders apply to a very good 69-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is 25-4 ATS in week 2 and they also apply to a similar 26-2 ATS week 2 angle. My ratings would have favored the Chiefs by just 1 point prior to last week’s results, so the line has certainly been adjusted for how poorly the Raiders played. Oakland’s offense performed pretty well (5.4 yards per play), but their defense was horrible in allowing the Broncos to rack up 7.9 yards per play. Oakland has good personnel on defense and I expect that unit to bounce back with a good effort against a sub-par Kansas City attack. I actually upgraded the Chiefs offense with veteran Damon Huard in place of injured starting quarterback Brodie Croyle, who averaged only 4.7 yards per pass play last season. Huard has averaged 5.6 yppp during his career and 5.55 yppl since last season, so he’s an upgrade. Kansas City’s defense caught a break and spent most of last Sunday defending Matt Cassell instead of Tom Brady, who was injured in the first half. The Chiefs are probably going to be below average defensively this season without pass rushing star Jared Allen, but they ought to keep the Raiders in check. My ratings favor Kansas City by 3 points after adjusting for last week’s games and installing Huard at quarterback for Kansas City, so the line is fair. The situation is strongly in favor of the Raiders and I’ll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars down to +3 points (-120 odds or better).
I’ll also consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 35 points or higher based on a 94-38-5 Under situation.
3 Star Selection
San Francisco (+7) 21 SEATTLE 19
San Francisco is one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season, but losing 13-23 at home to Arizona has hidden that fact. The 49ers were the worst offensive team in recent memory last season, but bringing in offensive coordinator Mike Martz has revitalized the 49ers’ attack and quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan looks like he’s more than capable of putting up adequate passing numbers to go with the good running of Frank Gore. O’Sullivan averaged 10.6 yards per pass attempt in the pre-season and followed that up with 20 passes for 195 yards last week (9.75 ypa). I’m not ready to call for O’Sullivan to make the Pro Bowl, but he’s averaged 8.3 ypa on 165 passes in Martz’ system in the pre-season and regular season combined, including 7.5 ypa on 46 regular season passes. If I include sacks, which I always do, then O’Sullivan has an overall average of 7.4 yards per pass play in Martz’ system (including preseason), including 5.9 yppp on 53 regular season pass plays (7.6 yppp last week). That’s just a bit below the league average of 6.1 yppp and I have O’Sullivan rated as an average quarterback on a yppp basis – but with a high interception rate. With Gore being a better than average runner the 49ers can move the ball at a better than average clip, which was proven by the 6.8 yppl that the Niners averaged last week. San Francisco has a pretty solid defense too and that unit held the Cardinals’ better than average attack to just 4.3 yppl. San Francisco should have beaten the Cardinals by about 10 points, but they lost by 10 thanks to 4 lost fumbles and zero turnovers for the Cardinals. Fumbles are mostly random in the NFL, so it’s unlikely that they’ll repeat those mistakes this week. If the turnovers are close to even then San Francisco should have no problem competing with an overrated Seahawks team was out-played 3.8 yppl to 5.4 yppl by the Bills in their 10-34 loss. Seattle does have a better than average defense (although they didn’t show it last week), but the Seahawks are hurting on offense with no capable receivers on the roster for quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to throw to. All of last year’s top 4 wide receivers are gone, as D.J. Hackett left as a free agent, Bobby Engram is still out with a bad shoulder, Deion Branch is still recovering from knee surgery and Nate Burleson, who led the team with 5 catches last week, is out for the season after injuring his knee last week. Seattle isn’t a good enough running team to beat the 49ers, who are pretty good defending the run, and my ratings favor Seattle by just 3 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value, the 49ers apply to a very good 69-18-1 ATS bounce-back situation that is 25-4 ATS in week 2 and Seattle applies to a negative 28-87 ATS situation that is based on last week’s loss. I’ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars from +5 ½ to +3 ½ points.
NFL Strong Opinions
Green Bay (-3.0) 26 DETROIT 19
I rated Detroit as the 5th worst team in the league heading into the season and they just proved that they are not as good as one of the teams I had rated below them. Losing 21-34 to Atlanta is a sign of trouble, as the defense allowed 322 yards on 38 rushing plays while allowing rookie quarterback Matt Ryan to average a tidy 11.1 yards on his 14 pass plays. Detroit’s offense played about as expected with 5.5 yards per play against a below average Falcons’ defense, but a mediocre offense is not going to cut it against a good Packers team that plays solid defense and looks sharp on offense. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers showed why the Packers didn’t want Brett Favre to come back, as Rodgers completed 18 of 22 passes for 8.1 yards per pass play and no interceptions. Green Bay also ran the ball for 5.6 yards per rush against the best run defense in the league in Monday’s 24-19 win over the Vikings and RB Ryan Grant is probably doing cartwheels in the film room while looking at Detroit’s run defense. My ratings favor Green Bay by 9 points in this game, but I’ll resist making the Packers a Best Bet since the Lions apply to a 28-3-1 ATS bounce-back situation. Green Bay does apply to an 81-39-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator and I’ll consider Green Bay a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Buffalo (+5.5) 20 JACKSONVILLE 21
The Bills are a young team on the rise and they showed that last week with an outstanding all-around performance in a 34-10 win over the Seahawks. Buffalo out-gained Seattle 5.4 yards per play to 3.8 yppl and had their usual great effort on special teams (punt return TD and fake FG TD). I still rate the Bills at below average offensively, but their young defense became a better than average unit starting week 5 of last season when changes were made in the secondary. That defense is even better this season and rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. Jacksonville’s offense was malfunctioning last week against a good Titans’ defense (just 3.3 yppl) and they will probably post just mediocre numbers against the Bills. The Jaguars are a solid defensive team, but they are still susceptible to the pass (Kerry Collins killed them last week after Vince Young left the game with an injury) and Bills’ quarterback Trent Edwards looks pretty comfortable throwing the football (he averaged 6.9 yards per pass play last week with no interceptions). My ratings favor Jacksonville by 5 points, so the line is about right, but Buffalo applies to an 81-39-4 ATS statistical indicator while the Jaguars apply to a negative 33-76-3 ATS early season situation. I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take the Bills in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Philadelphia (+7) 21 DALLAS 23
Philadelphia appears to be an underrated team to start this season. My ratings favored the Eagles by 14 ½ points last week against the Rams (a 38-3 win) and my ratings favor Dallas by only 3 points in this game, as I have these teams rated the same. The Eagles have a great running back in Brian Westbrook and Donavan McNabb looks completely healthy after spending last season recovering from his knee surgery. The addition of rookie DeSean Jackson has been a bigger factor than most anticipated, as Jackson led the Eagles in receiving yards last week (6 catches for 106 yards) while also setting up a touchdown with a 60 yard punt return. Philly’s defense was pretty good last season (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and they’ve added top cornerback Asante Samuel to make the pass defense even better. The Rams were limited to 166 total yards at 3.7 yppl last week and the Eagles are capable of slowing down an explosive Dallas attack. I actually rate Dallas as being slightly better than the Eagles offensively and 0.2 yppl better on defense, but McNabb is the current all-time leader in lowest interception percentage (2.1%) while Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is intercepted 3.7% of the time during his career, which is worse than the league average. Aside from the line value, I also like the fact that Eagles’ head coach Andy Reid is 41-21-2 ATS in his career as an underdog or pick. I’ll consider Philadelphia a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
Indianapolis 19 at MINNESOTA 20 UNDER 43.5
Peyton Manning showed some rust in the Colts’ opening night loss to Chicago and he managed to average just 5.4 yards per pass play, which is much lower than the 7.5 yppp that we generally see from him. Some of the credit must go to the Bears’ defense, but Manning wasn’t looking downfield as much as he usually does, which could have been the result of missing all of training camp and the preseason. I expect Manning to be sharper this week and Minnesota’s pass defense looked vulnerable last week against the short passes of Aaron Rodgers, which kept the Minnesota pass rush at bay (0 sacks against Green Bay). The Colts didn’t do a great job against the Bears’ rookie runner Matt Forte, so there is some concern about stopping Adrian Peterson this week (the Vikings averaged 5.5 ypr last season and 5.7 ypr in their opener). The pass defense should have no trouble shutting down a sub-par Tarvaris Jackson, so it all comes down the run defense. The Colts were better than average in run defense last season, so last week may have been an aberration. Still, I expect Peterson and backup Chester Taylor to get their yards. My ratings favor the Colts by 1 point, so the line is about right, but Minnesota applies to a very good 81-39-4 ATS statistical indicator and I’ll lean with the Vikings based on that. I’ll also consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 43 points or higher based on a 94-38-5 Under situation that applies to this game.
Playmaker 20* St. Louis Rams
Regular Play Cleveland Browns
STL / NYG Over 41.5
Analysis: Let's take advantage of a low number here in what should be a much higher-scoring game than what the oddsmakers think based on Week 1 performances. The OVER ended up going 5-1 in the last six home games for the Rams last season, and they should be able to score at least a couple touchdowns against the Giants after being held to a mere field goal at Philadelphia last week. New York is also more than capable of putting up 30+ points here against a terrible St. Louis defense. While I believe the point spread is right where it should be with the Giants favored by nearly 10 points, the total is way off. Bet the OVER as my Double Dime NFL Total Play O' the Week.
CAR -3.0 vs CHI
Like last week with the Saints, the oddsmakers are keeping this game at a key number and making you lay the juice. Our New Orleans play turned out to be a winner, and I see no reason not to back another quality home team in the Panthers here. The Bears are coming off a serious statement game against the Colts last Sunday night and are a bit overvalued in this spot despite the fact that Steve Smith is not playing for Carolina due to a suspension. Smith has killed Chicago in the past, and his presence on the field would be worth at least a couple more points. Instead, former Bears WR Muhsin Muhammad will have the opportunity to burn his former team. I believe the running of Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will be the difference though and see the Panthers winning this one by at least a touchdown. That's why I'm betting Carolina as my Single Dime NFL Favorite Play O' the Day.
SEA (+150) vs ANA
The Mariners had to watch Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez break the single-season saves record on Saturday night and should be able to take advantage of a team that has accomplished just about everything it can before the end of the season. K-Rod's record was certainly a cause for celebration for the home team, and that could come back to haunt LA during the day on Sunday. Seattle's Felix Hernandez is 3-3 when pitching under the sun this season with a 2.66 ERA while Ervin Santana's ERA under the same scenario for the Angels is an inflated 4.65. I expect the Mariners to be extra motivated in this spot as they also look to avoid a four-game sweep, so bet them as my Single Dime AL Underdog Play O' the Day.
NYG -8.5 vs STL
INSIDE THE HUDDLE PLAY
I've talked to a lot of NFL people Saturday night and the team they tell me is in the biggest trouble right now is the Rams. Scott Linehan has lost total control of the team and their offensive and defensive lines are the worst units in the NFL. Actually, I grade each position of every team and the Rams offensive line has the lowest rating of any positional unit in the NFL. That's not good when facing the Giants blitzing defense. This may look like a trap or a sucker bet but the thing is: The Rams are the worst team in football right now. They made the Eagles look like world beaters last week and the Philly offense simply isn't that good. Marc Bulger will be lucky to make it out of this game alive, as the Giants win big. ***3 UNIT PLAY***
MIN / IND Over 43.0
This is my classic "Play an over when one team runs the ball well and their opponent can't stop the run, while the other team passes the ball well and their opponent can't stop the pass." This is a rather simple theory and it's been a strong moneymaker for me over the years but so far in CFB it hasn't been cashing. So now I'll give it a shot in the pros. I'm playing the odds here and saying Peyton Manning won't have two terrible games in a row. I'm not saying the Colts will win but I do expect Manning to be much sharper than he was against the Bears. On the other side, I expect Adrian Peterson to eat up the Colts defense. I actually thought the Vikings ditched the run a little too soon last week. I don't think that will happen here. This should be a fun game to watch and I do see some points being scored by the offenses. **2 UNIT PLAY**
WAS 1.0 vs NOS
Analysis: Stan has Bet Washington as Stan believes that Washington will win this game by 7-10 points. Washington has had a few extra days to prepare for this game and will exploit a very weak defense. TAKE WAHINGTON as STAN'S EARLY SEASON SHOCKER OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.
2♦ NEW YORK GIANTS -8
We used the Eagles last week as a FOUR-Star selection against this Rams team and won easily. We see no reason to back-off this “Play Against” team even though they will be at home for their opener in this contest. The Rams only managed 8 first downs on offense and allowed 28 first downs to the Eagles on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams defense gave up 522 yards to the Eagles offense last Sunday while their own offense could only manage 166 yards with just over 50 of those coming on their final drive of the game. Just as we expected the Rams RB Steven Jackson’s holdout and hamstring issues caused him to be a non-factor in Sunday’s game with only 40 yards rushing with a 2.9 yards per carry average. Rams QB Bulger didn’t help matters with 14 of 26 for 130 yards passing on the day. The Rams are not very good upfront and we expect a similar type performance as they face a good Giants defense on Sunday. The Giants had little trouble with their Week One opponent the Washington Redskins. The New York defense only allowed 11 first downs and a total of 209 yards of offense. In fact they held the Skins scoreless until the final seconds of the game. New York’s offense had 32 rushes for 154 yards while Eli was 19 of 35 for 200 yards passing against the Skins. Not huge numbers but they were efficient and should have no trouble with a Rams defense that is over worked because of their offensive shortcomings. On the technical front we see that ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. ST LOUIS is 8-20 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game since 1992. ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 15-6 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. The NEW YORK GIANTS are 20-2 ATS on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. Our Team Performance Ratings show the New York Giants with a 13.2 advantage over the St. Louis Rams in Sunday’s matchup. Even with the line movement from the 6 where it opened to the current line of 8 we still have decent line value based upon our TPR Index and our PPR Index. Finally we have an NFL System that tells us: In Week 2, play AGAINST a non-division team (not a favorite of more than 3 points) with a TOTAL over 37 points off a road underdog SU loss in its last game and before a road contest in its next game. 10-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 17.1 points per game.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Red Zone Sports
We note that Chicago is not going to have nearly as easy a time this week, as they hit Indy in a really bad spot with their injuries. We find Carolina's preference is to pound away at its opponent on the ground behind a rebuilt line that possesses plenty of size & strength. The two-back tandem of DeAngelo Williams (86 rushing yards, 1 reception) and Jonathan Stewart (53 rushing yards worked well last week). We also note that Chicago is not nearly as good as they looked. Forte's was just average vs the Colts. Carolina at home this week is solid value. & we will lay the 3
49'ers vs Seahawks Over 38
The Red Zone will look for the Offenses to get back on track this week We 're banking on 49er's QB O'Sullivan to rack up yards this week, off a 15- of-20 pass attempts.O'Sullivan played with Martz in Detroit last year. Expect the offense to still go through running back Frank Gore, who rushed for 96 yards last week -- including a 41-yard TD run -- while also catching four passes for 55 yards.Former Cowboys running back Julius Jones made his Seahawk debut versus Buffalo and rushed for 45 yards on 13 carries. This baby fly's over the Total of 38
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive-Sunday
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: 5* Buffalo Bills +5.5
The Buffalo Bills travel to Jax to face the hometown Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. This contest features two teams that had surprising results in the opening week of the NFL season. One had good news and the other suffered a surprising 17 to 10 loss and that loss was handed to the host of this game by the Tennessee Titans.
The Bills opened their 2008 NFL campaign by defeating the Seattle Seahawks handily 34 to 10 using solid coaching, defense and outstanding special teams play. The offense also played well rushing the ball 29 times for 106 yards and 2nd year QB Edwards was 21 for 30 with 232 yards passing on the day.
Buffalo’s big win triggers a nice technical situation that tells us to Play On teams coming off a SU Win of 21 or more points in Week One, these teams have posted a record of 22-12 ATS! We also know that road teams with a scoring differential of over 30 points better from Week One than the home teams are a solid 12-5 ATS in Week Two.
The Jaguars were only able to rush the ball for 33 yards against the Titans in Week One. That is a huge problem for this team as they do not have the passing game to overcome a weak rushing attack. Their new wide receivers Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson have not provided the outside threat that the Jags had hoped for. Although Porter’s problem comes from an injury (hamstring) and he should rebound from that but maybe not in time to make a difference in this contest.
The Jags offensive line has been hit especially hard by the injury bug with three more added to that list after the Tennessee game. This does not include top backup Richard Collier’s absence due to gunshot wounds. The passing game of the Jags has also been affected as Jag’s QB David Garrard was sacked seven times in last week’s game.
For the Jaguars to be successful they must be able to run the football. This game presents them with two problems and the first being a solid Buffalo defensive unit and secondly their injuries suffered on the offensive line. There are just too many issues in the trenches to back a team that is giving up almost a TD to a team that is playing with as much confidence and momentum as the Bills.
Both teams’ performances last week trigger technical situations that solidify our selection on the Bills. We see that the League is 12-1-2 ATS (8.2 ppg) as a dog when facing a team with no wins after week one of the season. The League is 13-3-2 ATS (6.1 ppg) as a dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date. The League is 3-20-1 ATS (-9.8 ppg) as a favorite versus any team with more wins after a straight up loss on the road.
We also have two Power Systems that tell us that In Game 2, play AGAINST a team with a TOTAL of 37+ points off a SU loss averaging less than 3 yards per carry (not as an underdog of more than 7 points) in its last game 18-0 ATS since 1996. In Weeks 2-5, play AGAINST a winless team with a TOTAL over 32 points off an ATS loss with 35 rushing yards or less and allowing less than 190 rushing yards in its last game 15-0 ATS since 1996.
Our TPI (Team Performance Ratings Index) shows the Bills have a 1.8 point advantage in today’s game. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) has the Buffalo Bills with a 0.97 point edge in today’s matchup. The combination of these factors along with strong fundamental and situational support we will make the Buffalo Bills our 5* NFL Game of the Week Selection!
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* BUFFALO BILLS +5.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
Prediction: 4* New Orleans Saints -Pk
The Saints leave the Big Easy to pay a visit to our nation’s capital to face the host Redskins. The Saints enter this contest off a huge divisional win at home last week against the Buccaneers while the Skins were in New York for the season opener against the Giants on Thursday September 4th.
The Skins were not as fortunate as the Saints they lost to the Giants 16 to 7 and the score is not an indication of how bad the Skins played on offense. In fact they didn’t score their lone touchdown until the fourth quarter only had 13 ticks left on the clock.
Washington’s QB Jason Campbell has struggled with new head coach Jim Zorn’s West Coast Offense. The west coast scheme requires rhythm and timing which is obviously missing from this offense. The Skins were outgained 354 to 209 by the Giants and Campbell was only 15 of 27 for 125 yards passing on the night.
When NFL teams struggle on the road in their previous game they do not bounce back well as this technical situation explains; The League is 5-23-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays.
On the defensive front the Skins are banged up across their line and we believe their secondary is overrated. This is not a good sign for the Skins as Saints QB Drew Brees threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns against a much better Bucs defensive unit last week. Both he and the Saints appeared to be in mid-season form and are much more explosive than the Skins.
The fact that Saints QB Drew Brees had 300+ yards passing last week triggers a solid winning technical situation that states; The League is 20-8-2 ATS within 3 of pick the week after a win in which they had at least 300 yards passing. If our “Play On” team (Saints) is on the road the record is 17-4-2 ATS.
For the Saints Drew Brees has been outstanding over his last thirteen games throwing for an average of 295 yards per game with 69% completions and a 30 to 10 TD to INT ratio. That includes last week where Brees averaged 10.2 yards per pass play and the Saints averaged 7.6 yards per play on offense against a solid Buc’s “D”.
New Orleans has one glaring weakness and that is in their defensive secondary where they lack the necessary components to shut down their opponents passing game. The positive in that for this week’s match up is we don’t believe Jason Campbell has the grasp of the new offense or the ability to make the Saints pay for their inadequacies.
To defeat this Saints team you must either be able to shutdown their offense which their will be few with that ability or you must be able to score with them when your offense takes the field. Neither of those options are available to this Skins team, this bureau believes the Skins defense has little chance of stopping Brees and Company and we certainly don’t believe they could win a shootout with the Saints.
Data base research has uncovered a solid technical situation that backs our position on the Saints in today’s contest. It tells us to PLAY ON Favorites or Underdogs of less than 10 points in Week Two or Three coming off a home game (not MNF) and a fumble differential last season of less than zero, 104-37 ATS. Finally we have a technical situation that tells us to “Play On” teams in Week Two of the NFL season with a higher time of possession than their current opponent and their opponent had TYF <=350 and RYF <=125 in their last game, 72-22 ATS.
Our TPI (Team Performance Ratings Index) shows the Saints have a 4.4 point advantage over the Skins in today’s match up. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) shows that the Saints are 5.6 points better than the Skins. Combine all the factors and we will back the Saints here as they move to 2-0 both SU and ATS on the season!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -Pk
Game: Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7
Tampa returns home after suffering a tough loss in the Big Easy last week to the hometown Saints 24 to 20. The Falcons were busy disposing of an awful Detroit Lions team in Atlanta to capture a Week One victory.
The Falcons face a much tougher task this week as they head south to Cigar City to play the Buccaneers. Falcon’s rookie QB Matt Ryan will be facing the Tampa Two which is otherwise known as the two-deep, zone blitz defensive scheme which the Tampa “D” has mastered.
Atlanta does have two outstanding running backs in Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood who should be able to help take some of the pressure off of Matt Ryan in this game. Turner has averaged 5.9 yards per rush on 250 career carries which includes his 220 yard and 10.0 yard per carry performance last week.
Norwood has averaged better than 6.0 yards per carry on 216 carries he also performed well in their opener against the Lions putting up 93 yards on 6.6 yards per carry. With Norwood and Turners rushing performances against the Lions QB Ryan didn’t have to put the ball in their air much in that game. Ryan averaged 11.1 yards per pass play against Detroit but he only put the ball in the air 14 times. He has an average of 5.4 yards per pass play if we include what he did in the preseason.
We expect Ryan and his Falcon teammates to return to the real world on Sunday in Cigar City . The Buccaneers have the defensive prowess to bring their rushing attack back down to earth which in turn should have an impact on Ryan’s ability to throw the football.
The Bucs are not without issues, they lost starting QB Jeff Garcia to injury so Brian Griese will get the start on Sunday. Griese is familiar with Gruden’s system having played two seasons’ here back in 2004 and 2005. Griese averaged a solid 6.4 yards per play on offense during that time. His career numbers are also decent with 6.1 yards per play average.
The Bucs should also be able to rush the football against this Falcons defensive unit. Bucs running back Graham had 91 yards on just 10 carries against the Saints on Sunday in New Orleans . He should find the going much easier today as Griese will be able to spread the ball around.
The Falcons will field possibly one of the worst passing defenses in the league on Sunday. Griese, Graham and company should be able to put some points on the board against a Falcons defense that has some major issues.
On the technical front we know that the Bucs are 9-2 ATS off a division loss. The Bucs are 11-2-1 ATS as a favorite off a SU and ATS loss last week versus a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week. Tampa Coach John Gruden is 25-12-2 ATS as a favorite after a SU loss and 15-7-2 ATS in that role as the Coach of Tampa. Atlanta is 4-10 ATS off scoring 28 or more points in their last game and 1-6 ATS off a SU/ATS win. The Falcons are 2-11 ATS as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date.
Data base research has uncovered a solid Power System that tells us to Play AGAINST a road underdog of 7+ points one game over .500% off an underdog SU win in its last game vs. an opponent off scoring less than 38 points in its last game, 12-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 15.3 points per game!
Our (TPI) Team Performance Ratings Index has Tampa with a 10.3 points per game advantage over the Falcons in today’s contest. Our PPI (Player Performance Ratings Index) is projecting a little lower number than if Jeff Garcia was getting the start on Sunday instead of Brian Griese but the edge is still more than enough for us to lay the chalk with the host as the PPI sees it the Bucs have a 9.6 point edge in this game.
Combine all the factors and we have a solid 4* Selection on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the get the win and cover on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -7
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Prediction: 3* Pittsburgh Steelers -6
The Steelers take to the highway to face the Cleveland Browns on the NFL’s featured Sunday Game of the Week on NBC. The Steelers enter this contest off a big win in their opener while the Browns were upended by the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week One of the season.
Pittsburgh hosted the Houston Texans last Sunday to start their 2008 campaign and did so in fine fashion as they defeated the Texans 38 to 17. The Steelers rushing attack rushed the ball 39 times for 183 yards against the Texans defense. This allowed QB Ben Roethlisberger to attempt only 14 passes and completing 13 of them for an average of 7.6 yards per pass play.
The Steelers have dominated this series of late going 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS including 4-0-1 ATS in Cleveland . Pittsburgh has used solid defense along with a good rushing attack to accomplish this feat and we look for a repeat performance from both of them tonight.
Steelers RB Willie Parker and rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall make a powerful combo in the Steelers backfield while the Men of Steel will once again field a solid defensive unit in 2008.
Based on Game One’s performance the Cleveland Browns overachieved last season and definitely wont sneak up on anyone this season. Last season during the Brown’s run they were still unable to compete with the division’s best team and now Pittsburgh is healthy and ready to get off to a fast start in 08.
Cleveland’s recent additions of Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers have not done much to improve the Brown’s defensive line in Week One and you have to wonder if they will be able to compete in the trenches of this game against a team known for winning those battles.
Technical support for our selection: Pittsburgh is 14-1 SU and 10-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings with the Browns overall. The Steelers are 19-6-3 ATS on the road versus a divisional opponent. The Steelers are 15-5-4 ATS as a road favorite versus a divisional opponent. The Steelers are 14-4-2 ATS on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.
POWER ANGLE: The Steelers are 12-0 ATS as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date.
POWER SYSTEM: Play AGAINST a home underdog with a TOTAL of 44+ points, 9-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 10.9 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: 4* Atlanta / Tampa Bay Under 38
Atlanta heads south to face the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday afternoon in Tampa . The Falcons are coming in off a surprising performance last Sunday against the Detroit Lions while the Bucs ran into a hurricane motivated Saints team and lost in the Big Easy.
Tampa completely overwhelmed this Falcons team last season defeating them by a combined score of 68 to 10. The average yards per game were also in the Bucs favor by almost 100 yards per game with a 295 to 199 edge.
The Falcons have a new look this season with the third overall pick in last year’s draft Matt Ryan from Boston College under center. His season started off with a 62-yard touchdown pass to Michael ******* on his first attempt. The Falcons went on to defeat the Lions 34 to 21.
The key for Atlanta was their running game as they rushed for 318 yards against the Lions porous defense last week. Atlanta running back Turner had 220 yards rushing averaging 10 yards per carry. Their rushing attack was so successful that rookie QB Matt Ryan only attempted 13 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown.
Tampa on the other hand had to face a highly motivated New Orleans Saints team in the Big Easy. They are a much better team than who the Falcons faced in their first contest. Even though the Bucs lost they were only outgained by 86 yards on the day.
The Bucs will have a new starter under center on Sunday as Brian Griese gets the call because Jeff Garcia is out with an injury. We expect the Bucs to attempt to rush the football just as the Falcons will and this should lead to a low scoring affair.
The Bucs allowed fewer yards than any other NFC team last season and were one of three teams to hold opponents under 300 yards per game. Although they gave up a few big plays last week the Saints have many more playmakers than do the Falcons.
Tampa is 26-11 Under when installed as a home favorite and they are 7-1 Under during the month of September. The Bucs are also 13-3 Under their last 16 games overall. For the last three seasons the Falcons have gone Under in game two each year. They are also 10-3 Under their last 13 games overall and 6-2 Under their last 8. We also note that only eleven teams have rushed for 300 or more yards in the last decade and following their running wild they have gone a perfect 4-0 under in their next contest if installed as an underdog. Finally we know that game two teams who scored at least thirty-four in their last game are 42-19-3 Under and 8-1 Under the last nine games.
The combination of fundamental and technical indicators for this contest makes this our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* ATLANTA / TAMPA BAY UNDER 38
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive-Sunday
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Prediction: 3* Tennessee / Cincinnati UNDER 37.5
The Titans head to the Queen City to face the Bengals on Sunday afternoon. Last season the Titans were installed as a 1.5 point road favorite in this contest and had their lunch handed to them in a 35 to 6 thumping by the Bengals.
Cincinnati enters this weeks contest off a road loss at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens in Week One. They were outplayed in almost every facet of the game including being outgained 358 to 154 in total yards. Bengals QB Carson Palmer only had 99 yards passing and one interception.
Tennessee on the other hand was able to defeat the Jags at home to open the season. They outrushed the Jaguars 137 to 33 on 4.3 yards per carry while the Jags only managed 1.9 yards per rush on the day.
The Titans defense carried the day as they had seven sacks, forced three turnovers and held the Jaguars to 189 total yards which was good for third-fewest in the NFL in Week One. Cincinnati is all too familiar with stingy defense after suffering a 17-10 loss to Baltimore Sunday. The Bengals, who ranked in the top 10 in total offense each of the last two seasons, were held to eight first downs and an NFL-low 154 total yards.
Titans QB Vince Young sidelined by a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee, 14-year veteran Kerry Collins is expected to start on Sunday. Young struggled in his season opener, completing 12 of 22 passes for 110 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
On the technical front we see that the Titans are 8-1 Under after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons, 9-2 Under in their first road game of the season their last 11 and 6-1 Under their last 7 before facing the Texans. Cincinnati is 6-2 Under during game two of the season their last 8, 8-2 Under their last 10 off a SU favorite loss and 11-3 Under their last 14 before facing a non-conference opponent. This series has seen the Under cash in five of the last six meetings overall.
The combination of both teams struggling on offense and the Titans always stingy “D” we expect another “Under” to cash in this series on Sunday afternoon in the Queen City.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* TENNESSEE / CINCINNATI UNDER 37.5
Cajun-Sports Free NFL Selection
New York Giants vs. St. Louis Rams
Grade / Prediction: 2* New York Giants -8
We used the Eagles last week as a FOUR-Star selection against this Rams team and won easily. We see no reason to back-off this “Play Against” team even though they will be at home for their opener in this contest.
The Rams only managed 8 first downs on offense and allowed 28 first downs to the Eagles on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams defense gave up 522 yards to the Eagles offense last Sunday while their own offense could only manage 166 yards with just over 50 of those coming on their final drive of the game.
Just as we expected the Rams RB Steven Jackson’s holdout and hamstring issues caused him to be a non-factor in Sunday’s game with only 40 yards rushing with a 2.9 yards per carry average. Rams QB Bulger didn’t help matters with 14 of 26 for 130 yards passing on the day. The Rams are not very good upfront and we expect a similar type performance as they face a good Giants defense on Sunday.
The Giants had little trouble with their Week One opponent the Washington Redskins. The New York defense only allowed 11 first downs and a total of 209 yards of offense. In fact they held the Skins scoreless until the final seconds of the game.
New York’s offense had 32 rushes for 154 yards while Eli was 19 of 35 for 200 yards passing against the Skins. Not huge numbers but they were efficient and should have no trouble with a Rams defense that is over worked because of their offensive shortcomings.
On the technical front we see that ST LOUIS is 4-15 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. ST LOUIS is 8-20 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game since 1992. ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 15-6 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS in road games after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. The NEW YORK GIANTS are 20-2 ATS on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
Our Team Performance Ratings show the New York Giants with a 13.2 advantage over the St. Louis Rams in Sunday’s matchup. Even with the line movement from the 6 where it opened to the current line of 8 we still have decent line value based upon our TPR Index and our PPR Index.
Finally we have an NFL System that tells us:
In Week 2, play AGAINST a non-division team (not a favorite of more than 3 points) with a TOTAL over 37 points off a road underdog SU loss in its last game and before a road contest in its next game. 10-0 ATS and averages covering the spread by 17.1 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* NEW YORK GIANTS 26 St. Louis Rams 12
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Oakland (0-1 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
Two historic AFC West rivals look to bounce back from Week 1 losses when the Chiefs and the Raiders square off at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City went to New England last Sunday and lost 17-10, but easily cashed as an overwhelming 16-point underdog in a game that will be most remembered for a season-ending injury to Patriots QB Tom Brady, who suffered two torn knee ligaments. Although Brady was gone before the first quarter ended, the Chiefs still managed just three points through three quarters, then fell five yards short of a game-tying TD in the final minute.
The Chiefs will go with Damon Huard (8 of 12, 118 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) at QB this week, after he stepped in against the Patriots for an injured Brodie Croyle late in the third quarter, leading one TD drive and nearly getting K.C. into overtime.
Oakland got blasted 41-17 by Denver as a three-point home ‘dog Monday night. Second-year QB JaMarcus Russell had a fair night (17 of 26, 180 yards, 2 TDs), but he fumbled twice (losing one), and the Raiders got outgained 441-317 while racking up 10 penalties for 96 yards.
These teams split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and cashing each time. The visitor is on a 4-0 ATS streak, and the Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Arrowhead.
The Chiefs are on a 1-6-1 ATS slide at home and are 0-4 ATS in their last four division contests, but they are on ATS runs of 4-1 in Week 2 games, 4-1-1 in September and 7-3 against losing teams. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS in their last six division roadies, but they are 6-35 SU in their last 41 road trips and are on pointspread slides of 2-5 in September, 18-41-1 after a SU loss and 10-21 inside the division.
In Week 1 across the league, SU winners went a whopping 15-1 ATS, with New England the only team to win and not cover. Favorites went 10-6 ATS, though heavy favorites (nine points or more) were just 1-3 ATS. Five of the six ‘dogs that covered won outright – with the Chiefs the lone exception.
The under has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry, and the total has gone low in 11 of Kansas City’s last 12 September contests. On the flip side, the over for Oakland is on runs of 4-0 in AFC West play, 5-0 in September and 7-1 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS CITY
Tennessee (1-0 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Titans, already dealing with quarterback issues just a week into the season, travel to Paul Brown Stadium for a Week 2 matchup with the Bengals.
Tennessee held off Jacksonville 17-10 last week to cash as a three-point home underdog, but lost QB Vince Young in the process. Young was an unspectacular 12 of 22 for 110 yards with one TD and two INTs before suffering a knee injury that will sideline him for several weeks, so veteran Kerry Collins (2 of 2, 65 yards last week) will start under center. The Titans defense got the job done last week, forcing three turnovers and allowing just 189 total yards – including just 33 to the Jags’ vaunted rushing attack.
Cincinnati lost to Baltimore 17-10 as a one-point road favorite, failing to score a TD until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. QB Carson Palmer (9 of 24, 94 yards, 1 INT) had perhaps his worst outing as a pro, and the Bengals were outgained 358-154 by the previously inept Ravens offense, giving up an eye-popping 229 yards rushing.
Since 1999, Tennessee has won seven of nine regular-season meetings with Cincinnati, but the Bengals have taken the last two clashes SU and ATS, including a 35-6 home rout last November in a pick ‘em game.
The Titans are 8-3 ATS following games against Jacksonville and are on additional positive ATS streaks of 5-0 in September and 11-5 on the highway, but they are also on pointspread slides of 0-6 after a spread-cover and 3-7 after a SU win. The Bengals, despite last week’s setback, are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 September starts.
The under for Tennessee is on runs of 4-0 overall and 10-1-1 following a SU win. Likewise, Cincinnati carries under streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss and 5-1 in AFC matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Indianapolis (0-1 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Colts, aiming to shake off a stunning Week 1 home loss, travel to the Metrodome for a non-conference affair against the Vikings.
Indianapolis was dealt a 29-13 loss to Chicago as a heavy 10-point home chalk last Sunday night. QB Peyton Manning, who sat out the preseason while recovering from minor knee surgery, put the ball up 47 times, completing 30 for 257 yards and a TD. But the Colts mustered just 53 rushing yards, while allowing the Bears to rack up 183 yards on the ground.
Minnesota opened the year with a 24-19 loss to archrival Green Bay as a one-point road pup. The Vikes got a typically solid game from second-year star RB Adrian Peterson (19 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD), but it was another mediocre effort from QB Tarvaris Jackson (16 of 35, 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), who threw his lone pick to end Minnesota’s last drive of the game.
These teams haven’t met since 2004, when Indy took a 31-28 win and Minnesota got the cash as a 7½-point road ‘dog.
The Colts are on a 9-2 ATS road spree against the NFC, but they are on a 1-4 ATS skid overall and carry additional negative pointspread trends of 0-4 after a SU loss and 2-6 against losing teams. The Vikings aren’t faring much better in the pointspread department, failing to cash in their last four overall and going 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home contests, though they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home against the AFC.
The under for Indianapolis is on runs of 8-3 in September, 4-1 after a SU loss and 7-3 on the highway. On the flip side, the over for Minnesota is on streaks of 6-1 at home, 5-2-1 overall and 35-17-3 after a SU defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
New Orleans (1-0 SU and ATS) at Washington (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Saints, off to a good start as they try to rebound from a 7-9 campaign, hit the road for a meeting with the Redskins at FedEx Field.
New Orleans held off Tampa Bay 24-20 laying three points in Week 1, with QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush posting huge days. Brees went 23 of 32 for 343 yards with three TDs and one INT, and Bush had 112 yards receiving and a TD on eight receptions, to go with 51 yards rushing, as the Saints rolled up a 438-352 yardage edge.
Washington opened the NFL season with a 16-7 loss to the New York Giants as a 4½-point road underdog. QB Jason Campbell (15 of 27, 133 yards, 1 TD) was generally ineffective for an offense that finished with just 209 total yards. The Redskins’ defense yielded 354 yards to the Giants, and the team lost the time-of-possession battle by nearly 12 minutes (35:43-24:17).
These squads have met four times since 2001, with each going 2-2 SU and ATS as the road team has won and covered all four contests. In the most recent clash two seasons ago, Washington scored a 16-10 victory as a 10-point road pup.
The Saints sport negative ATS trends of 1-4 outside the NFC South, 2-7 after a pointspread win and 3-8 following a SU win. The Redskins are also on a bevy of downward ATS streaks, including 12-18-4 overall, 2-5 after a SU loss and 3-7-1 in September.
New Orleans has topped the total in six consecutive regular-season games dating to last year, and the over for the Saints is on additional streaks of 13-3 against the NFC and 5-2 on the highway. Also, the over is 10-4-2 ATS in Washington’s last 16 games following an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Green Bay (1-0 SU and ATS) at Detroit (0-1 SU and ATS)
With the Aaron Rodgers era successfully underway, the Packers travel to Ford Field for an NFC Central battle against the Lions.
Green Bay held off bitter rival Minnesota 24-19 as a one-point home chalk, behind an efficient effort from Rodgers in his first NFL start, as he completed 18 of 22 passes for 178 yards and a TD. The Pack got outgained 355-317 and had four minutes less in time of possession, but they forced the game’s lone turnover – a Tarvaris Jackson INT – on the Vikings’ last drive, sealing the win.
Detroit got run over 34-21 by Atlanta last week as a 3½ -point road favorite, giving up an eye-popping 474 total yards, including 318 on the ground. QB Jon Kitna (24 of 33, 262 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was steady, but he got only 62 yards in ground support.
The Packers have won the last five games in this rivalry (4-1 ATS), but the home team is on a 16-5-1 ATS run, and the Lions are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes in Detroit.
The Packers are on positive ATS streaks of 20-8-2 overall, 9-3 on the highway (7-1 last year), 6-0 in September and 15-5-2 in conference play. Conversely, the Lions are on myriad pointspread slides, including 0-4 overall, 1-6 against the NFC, 1-5 after a SU loss and 4-12-1 in division contests.
The over is 6-2 in the last eight Packers-Lions battles in Detroit, and the over for Green Bay is on runs of 15-3 overall, 5-0 on the road and 12-2 against NFC foes. Furthermore, for the Lions, the over has cashed in seven straight regular-season games dating to last year and is 5-0 in their last five against the NFC and 6-1 in their last seven in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Chicago (1-0 SU and ATS) at Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS)
Two teams who posted the most shocking upset victories in Week 1 get together when the Bears travel to Charlotte to battle the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
In a rematch of the Super Bowl from two years ago, Chicago stunned Indianapolis 29-13 in prime time Sunday night as a 10-point underdog. QB Kyle Orton (13 of 21, 150 yards, no TDS, no INTs) wasn’t spectacular, but he didn’t need to be with the Bears rushing for 183 yards, led by rookie Matt Forte (23 carries, 123 yards, 1 TD). On the other side of the ball, Chicago’s defense held Indy to 53 yards rushing.
Carolina stunned San Diego 26-24 catching 9½ points on the highway in Week 1. QB Jake Delhomme (23 of 41, 247 yards, no INTs) got his only TD pass of the game when it mattered most, hitting TE Dante Rosario in the back of the end zone on the last play of the game to win it. The Panthers rolled up 388 yards on the normally stout San Diego defense, while allowing 316 yards.
These clubs have met just three times this decade, with Carolina going 2-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Panthers took a 29-21 road victory as a 2½-point ‘dog in the 2005 divisional playoffs.
The Bears are on a 4-0 ATS run overall and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven roadies, but they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after a SU win. The Panthers have also cashed in four straight dating to last year, but they are on a 3-7 ATS slide at home and are just 11-21 ATS as a home chalk since 2005 (1-3 ATS last year in that role).
The over is 22-6-1 in Chicago’s last 29 games versus NFC foes, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven Week 2 games. Also, the under for Carolina is on runs of 6-1 at home, 4-1 after a SU win, 19-8-2 in September and 7-3 in conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
N.Y. Giants (1-0 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (0-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Giants, who were road warriors last year, hit the highway for the first time this season when they head to the Edward Jones Dome to take on the Rams.
New York opened the 2008 campaign with a 16-7 home win over Washington laying 4½ points. QB Eli Manning (19 of 35, 216 yards, 1 INT) was average, but he was backed by 116 rushing yards from Brandon Jacobs, and the defense held the Redskins to just 209 total yards, leading to a nearly 12-minute edge in time of possession.
St. Louis got pounded 38-3 at Philadelphia catching 9½ points, producing a paltry 166 total yards. QB Marc Bulger (14 of 26, 158 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) took four sacks and the Steven Jackson-led running game netted just 36 yards, while the Rams defense’ got torched for a whopping 522 yards.
The Giants have cashed in four straight clashes in this rivalry (3-1 SU), though the two teams haven’t met since October 2005, when New York rolled 44-24 as a 3½-point home chalk.
The Giants have won 12 consecutive road games (including playoffs), going 10-2 against the number in that span. In addition, New York sports ATS trends of 7-0 overall (playoffs included) and 19-7 on the road. On the flip side, the Rams have nothing but negative pointspread trends to speak of, including 0-4 overall, 1-10 against winning teams, 1-4 at home, 7-19-3 in September and 19-41-1 coming off a pointspread setback.
The under for New York is on runs of 4-1 overall (playoffs included), 9-2 on the road and 6-1 against the NFC. For St. Louis, the over is on streaks of 5-0 after a non-cover, 6-1 after a SU loss and 5-1 at the dome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Buffalo (1-0 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Bills look to build on a blowout Week 1 victory when they head to the Sunshine State for a matchup against the Jaguars.
Buffalo rolled past Seattle 34-10 as a one-point home chalk in Week 1. QB Trent Edwards (19 of 30, 215 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) was steady for an offense that outgained the Seahawks 338-252, and the Bills also won the turnover battle, 2-0.
Jacksonville’s offense was stymied in its season-opening 17-10 setback to Tennessee as a three-point road favorite. The Jaguars got 215 yards passing from David Garrard (23 of 35, 1 TD, 2 INTs) but went backward with their vaunted ground game (33 net yards).
The Jags and Bills have met four times in the last five years, with each going 2-2 SU and ATS. Last year, Jacksonville posted a 36-14 win in November giving nine points at home.
The Bills are on several positive ATS runs, including 9-4-1 overall, 9-3-1 after a SU win and 5-1-1 after a pointspread victory. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have failed to cash in four of their last five September starts, but they sport ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 against winning teams and 10-4 inside the AFC.
The under is 5-1 in the Bills’ last six roadies and 11-4 in their last 15 September starts, but the over is 19-8 in the team’s last 27 games following a SU win. Additionally, the over for Jacksonville is on streaks of 16-5-2 overall (4-1-1 last six at home), 10-1-2 against winning teams and 7-1-2 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE and OVER
Atlanta (1-0 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Falcons, who got out of the gate quickly with their revamped team, aim to keep it going in an NFC South battle against the Buccaneers.
Atlanta, with a new head coach in Mike Smith and a rookie starting QB in Matt Ryan, coasted past Detroit 34-21 in the season opener, cashing as a 3½-point home pup. And though Ryan was solid in limited pass attempts (9 of 13, 161 yards, 1 TD, no INTs), it was another newcomer who carried the day, as former Chargers RB Michael Turner went off for 220 yards rushing and two TDs to help the Falcons post a huge 474-308 total yardage edge.
Tampa Bay fell short at New Orleans 24-20 as a three-point ‘dog, keeping it close despite being outgained 438-352. Tampa put up 146 rushing yards on 20 attempts (7.3 yards per carry) – an attack that could be helpful this week as QB Jeff Garcia sits out and veteran Brian Griese gets the start.
Tampa won and covered both meetings in this divisional rivalry last year in blowout fashion (31-7 on the road, 37-3 at home) to halt a 3-0 ATS run by Atlanta. Also, the favorite is on a 4-0 ATS run in this series.
The Falcons are in a 2-5 ATS rut divisional play. However, Atlanta is on positive pointspread runs of 8-3 on the road, 4-1 after an ATS win and 11-5 against teams with a losing record. Conversely, the Buccaneers have cashed in five of their last seven division contests, but they are in pointspread funks of 0-4 overall (all in NFC play) and 1-4 against winning teams.
The over has cashed in eight straight games for Atlanta and is 7-0 in its last seven conference matchups. The over is also on a 6-1 run for Tampa Bay. However, the under is 16-5 in the Falcons’ last 21 road contests and 8-3 in the Bucs’ last 11 September games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Re: Sunday Service Plays
San Francisco (0-1 SU and ATS) at Seattle (0-1 SU and ATS)
Two NFC West rivals get together when the 49ers head up the Pacific Coast to Qwest Field to take on the Seahawks.
Seattle, which reached the playoffs each of the last four years, got belted in its season opener at Buffalo, falling 34-10 as a one-point pup. QB Matt Hasselbeck had a subpar day (17 of 41, 190 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), and the Seahawks finished with just 252 total yards while allowing 338. Seattle also lost the turnover battle 2-0 and gave up a punt-return TD.
San Francisco continued its low-scoring ways of last season in a 23-13 loss to Arizona as a one-point home ‘dog. The 49ers actually outgained the Cards 291-285, but they coughed up the ball five times (4 lost fumbles, 1 INT).
The Seahawks won and covered both of last year’s meetings in blowout fashion, 23-3 on the road and 24-0 at home, and Seattle has cashed in six of the last nine clashes with the 49ers.
The Seahawks are on a 7-2 ATS run at home in division play and carry additional ATS trends of 19-8-1 overall at home (6-0 ATS in their last six), 5-0 overall in the NFC West, 7-3 against the NFC and 13-6 in September. Conversely, the 49ers are stuck in ATS ruts of 3-9 overall, 1-6 on the highway, 2-9 in conference play and 2-7 after a SU loss.
In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall and 4-1 at Qwest Field, and the under is on additional stretches of 6-1 for the 49ers in division play, 4-1 overall for the 49ers, 4-1 for the Seahawks versus division foes and 11-5-1 in Seattle’s last 17 September contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE and UNDER
Miami (0-1 SU and ATS) at Arizona (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Dolphins cross the country to the desert Southwest for a non-conference meeting with the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Miami opened the Tony Sparano era with a 20-14 home loss to the Jets as a three-point underdog, managing just a touchdown in each half. New QB Chad Pennington, a former Jet, went 26-for-43 for 251 yards and two TDs (1 INT), but he got no help from the ground game, which netted just 49 yards.
Arizona opened with a 23-13 victory against San Francisco as a one-point road chalk. The Cards got serviceable efforts from QB Kurt Warner (19 of 30, 197 yards, 1 TD) and RB Edgerrin James (26 carries, 100 yards), but the key was a defense that fueled a 5-0 turnover edge (4 fumbles, 1 INT), leading to a 14-minute advantage in time of possession.
These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Arizona took a 24-23 decision as a three-point road ‘dog.
The Dolphins, coming off a 1-15 campaign in 2007, are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 roadies against the NFC, but they are 0-6-2 ATS in their last eight September starts. The Cardinals are on ATS slides of 1-8 in home openers and 1-4 after a spread cover, though they are on a 5-0 ATS run in September.
The over for Arizona is on tears of 11-2 after a spread cover, 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 23-7 against losing teams and 21-8 coming off a SU win. Also, the over is 4-0 in Miami’s last four games following a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-0 SU and ATS)
The defending AFC champion Patriots, now without reigning league MVP Tom Brady, head to East Rutherford, N.J., for a division showdown against Brett Favre and the Jets.
New England hung on for a 17-10 victory over Kansas City last week, falling far short of covering as a heavy 16-point home favorite. The Pats lost Brady for the year to a pair of torn knee ligaments suffered on a first-quarter hit, but backup Matt Cassel was serviceable enough (13 of 18, 152 yards, 1 TD), and Randy Moss had six catches for 116 yards and a TD. Cassel, a career backup at USC, will be making his first start since high school, not counting preseason.
New York rang in the Favre era with a 20-14 victory at Miami as a three-point chalk. Favre, who retired, unretired and was then traded from the Packers to the Jets over the summer, had an efficient debut in going 15 of 22 for 194 yards and two TDs, with no INTs. RB Thomas Jones helped out with 101 rushing yards and one TD on 22 carries.
New England has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this AFC East rivalry (7-2-1 ATS), including sweeping last year’s series but splitting the cash. The Patriots are also on a 9-0 ATS tear at New York, and the road team is 17-2-1 ATS in the last 20 clashes.
The Patriots, who are underdogs this week for the first time since the 2006 playoffs, are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 on the road and 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 division contests. But they have dropped seven straight pointspread decisions dating to last season (playoffs included), going 0-5 ATS against AFC foes during this slump. Likewise, the Jets carry negative ATS streaks of 1-5 after a SU win and 2-5-1 at home.
The over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these rivals int New York, but the under is on several runs for both teams, including 6-1-1 overall for New England, 5-0-1 for the Patriots against the AFC, 5-0 overall for the Jets, 5-0 for New York against AFC opponents and 5-1 in the Jets’ last six home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
San Diego (0-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Chargers quickly find themselves needing a win when they head to Invesco Field at Mile High for an AFC West battle with the Broncos.
San Diego was dealt perhaps the most stunning Week 1 loss, falling to Carolina 26-24 as a 9½-point home chalk, giving up the winning touchdown pass on the game’s final play. The Chargers, who had rallied from a nine-point fourth-quarter deficit to take a 24-19 lead with 2½ minutes to play, got outgained 388-316, despite solid efforts from QB Philip Rivers (17 of 27, 217 yards, 3 TDs) and RB LaDainian Tomlinson (21 carries, 97 yards).
Denver coasted to a 41-17 victory over Oakland laying three points on the road Monday night. QB Jay Cutler was an efficient and effective 16 of 24 for 300 yards with two TDs and no INTs, with rookie WR Eddie Royal racking up 146 yards and a TD on nine catches. The Broncos finished with a 441-307 yardage edge.
San Diego is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, blowing out the Broncos in both games last year, 41-3 on the road and 23-3 at home.
The Chargers are on a 14-5-1 ATS roll as a division favorite and sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 5-0 on the highway (playoffs included), 19-7-2 after a SU loss, 19-7-3 inside the division and 35-16-3 in conference contests. The Broncos, one of the NFL’s worst teams against the number since the 2006 season opener (11-22 ATS), are on a 3-8 ATS plunge as an underdog and are mired in further pointspread funks of 2-11 after a SU win, 2-8 after a spread-cover and 3-10 in division play.
The under has cashed in 14 of San Diego’s last 20 division clashes, but beyond that, the over has been the play for both teams. For the Chargers, the over is on runs of 11-3-2 on the highway, 9-2 after a pointspread defeat, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-0 in September. The over for Denver is on streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 11-1-1 at home, 4-0 in September and 7-1 inside the division. Finally, the total has gone high in three of the last four meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
Pittsburgh (1-0 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (0-1 SU and ATS)
An AFC North battle takes the prime-time slot Sunday night when the Steelers make the short trek to Ohio to take on the Browns.
Pittsburgh posted an easy 38-17 victory over Houston, easily covering as a 6½-point home favorite. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball just 14 times, but he completed 13 for 137 yards and two TDs, and RB Willie Parker went off for 138 yards and three TDs on 25 carries, while the Steelers defense allowed just 234 total yards and forced three turnovers.
Cleveland looked terrible in last Sunday’s 28-10 home loss to Dallas as a six-point pup. The Browns got outgained 487-205, with QB Derek Anderson (11 of 24, 114 yards, 1 TD) failing to get on track as the offense had the ball for just 22½ minutes.
Pittsburgh owns a nine-game winning streak against the Browns (7-1-1 ATS), winning both of last year’s meetings but splitting the cash. The Steelers are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland, the favorite is on a 6-1-1 ATS run and the visitor is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five September contests and 5-2 ATS in their last seven in AFC North play, but they are in pointspread slumps of 1-5 after a spread-cover and 2-5 on the highway. Cleveland, meanwhile, sports positive ATS streaks of 12-4 overall, 7-1 at home, 10-1 against winning teams, 6-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 in division games.
The over has cashed in five of the last six games in this rivalry (one push), and the over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 in AFC play and 10-4-1 against division foes. Conversely, the under is on a 7-0 overall run for Cleveland dating to 2007, including 4-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Re: Sunday Service Plays
NEW ORLEANS PK
TAMPA BAY -7
NEW ENGLAND +2.5
PITT. OVER 44
Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings
Selection: Minnesota Vikings +2
The Indianapolis Colts are currently in a bad state of affairs and their week 1 loss to Chicago was no coincidence or stroke of misfortune. Their performance, both offensively and defensively, was terrible and they were dominated at the line of scrimmage. The probability that the Colts could improve their precision, execution and synchronicity in one week?s time is extremely unlikely.
Even more troubling for the Colt?s is the Metrodome. It?s not a great place for a struggling team on the road to manage a victory. On the other hand, Minnesota is ready for a home victory.
Their disheartening loss to Green Bay last Monday is providing a sense of urgency to boost their determination. The silver lining to the Green Bay loss was that the Vikings were defeated by only 5 points. They also had the opportunity for a tie with a last minute drive. Tarvaris Jackson and Adrian Peterson both had an air of confidence.
The difference in the game probably amounted to the lack of pressure on Packer?s QB Aaron Rogers. Excluding that game, the Vikings have a well known reputation for having one of the most skilled, highly motivated defenses in the NFL. We expect to see it back up to par this week with its talented players knowing when they need to step it up.
Peyton Manning was under enormous pressure from the Bears last week, probably a result of the offensive line being riddled with holes. In particular, the loss of both Jeff Saturday and Ryan Lilja last week and again this week severely weakens the Colt?s effectiveness. Other problems include WR Marvin Harrison who isn?t playing at 100% leaving Reggie Wayne to take the bulk of the opponents defense. An injured knee makes TE Dallas Clark?s participation questionable and RB Joseph Addai isn?t completely healthy either.
While Minnesota had a disappointing opener, they are in the perfect position to make a full recovery. Expect the Vikings to bounce back this week sending the Colts 0-2!
Take Minnesota Vikings +2!
SAN DIEGO minus vs Denver.
Chargers are coming off a tough last play loss to Carolina in Week One of NFL action and we look for a big bounce back against the Broncos who are off a big MNF road win against the Raiders. This is an important division game and SD simply can't afford to start the season 0-2. Last trip to Mile High was a 41-3 rout for the Chargers, and they are averaging over 30 PPG last four at Denver. Key stats show that the Broncos are just 6-17-1 ATS of late with San Diego a fine 9-1ATS last 10 games and 12-3 ATS off a loss. Lay it with the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS!
National Football League:
CHIEFS -3.5 +104 over Raiders
Raiders at Chiefs OVER 35.5 +101 (from Friday's newsletter)
TITANS +1.0 -112 at Bengals (from yesterday's newsletter)
VIKINGS +1.0 +104 over Colts
SAINTS +1.0 -112 at Redskins (from yesterday's newsletter)
PACKERS -3.0 -109 at Lions
BEARS +3.0 +113 at Panthers
Bears at Panthers OVER 37.0 -103 (from Friday's newsletter)
GIANTS -9.0 +109 at Rams
BILLS +4.5 -109 at Jaguars
Bills at Jaguars OVER 37.0 -105 (from Friday's newsletter)
FALCONS +7.0 -109 at Buccaneers (OR +255)
Falcons at Buccaneers OVER 37.5 -105 (from Friday's newsletter)
SEAHAWKS -6.5 -101 over 49ers
49ers at Seahawks OVER 38.0 +102 (from Friday's newsletter)
CARDINALS -6.5 -104 over Dolphins
PATRIOTS -1.0 -101 at Jets
BRONCOS -1.0 -107 over Chargers
Chargers at Broncos UNDER 45.5 -102 (from Friday's newsletter)
Major League Baseball:
PHILLIES -124 over Brewers (Blanton-Bush) (Game 1)
PHILLIES -174 over Brewers (Myers-Suppan) (Game 2)
DODGERS +109 at Rockies (Maddux-Cook)
INDIANS -164 over Royals (Sowers-Bannister)
TWINS -151 at Orioles (Blackburn-Liz)
It's been a long time since we've had so many plays going off at once. If you're with us on a lot of these plays, you might want to consider using so 2- or 3-bet parlays - SO LONG AS YOU UNDERSTAND HOW TO "USE" PARLAYS. Parlays can be a great way to protect your downside risk, but you MUST understand correct money management. Be sure to check our article, Parlays & Profit, on our web site. You might also consider splitting the day in two, holding off betting on the late games until the early games have been decided.
TITANS +1.0 -110 at Bengals
We don't think the loss of Titans' quarterback, Vince Young, is going to hurt our play on this game. In fact, all things considered, we're more comfortable with veteran quarterback Kerry Collins on the field. The biggest difference between the Titans and Bengals appears to be in the defenses, but we really like the Titans' new rookie running back, Johnson. We'd take the Titans and lay as many as 3 points.
SAINTS +1.0 -107 at Redskins
We'd take the Saints and lay as many as 4.0 points against the Redskins...May 6.0 points. This is a strong play for us.
From yesterday's newsletter:
Raiders at Chiefs OVER 36.0 -105
Bears at Panthers OVER 37.0 -106
Bills at Jaguars OVER 37.0 -106
Falcons at Buccaneers OVER 37.5 -104
49ers at Seahawks OVER 38.0 +102
We're releasing these plays early for a reason..."37.0" is a prime number concerning over-under betting. More NFL games end in a total of exactly 37 points than in any other number; - roughly 5 percent. If you like the Over in any of these games, pay close attention to any slippage in the posted line against you. Pull the trigger if you're afraid the line might slip in any of these cases. We'd take any of these games 'Over' against a posted line as high as 38.0, but 37.0 is a lot better. Note that of those lines that move in the days or hours before an NFL game, a lot more lines move higher than lower.
Chargers at Broncos UNDER 45.5 -102 (Sunday)
"45.5" is our limit on this game. We'd pass the 'Under' at 45.0...We just don't see a lot of value here.
KANSAS CITY (-) over Oakland
Oakland looked awful in its Monday night home loss to Denver and now they must travel to one of the toughest stadiums in the league. Kansas City won't be a kind host either. The Chiefs enter this battle of their rough loss to New England and they'll be primed for this home opener.
In this AFC West series, KC has dominated Oakland in the last 30 meetings posting a strong 22-8 SU and 20-9-1 ATS record. To make matters worse for the Silver and Black, the Chiefs are lights out in their lid-lifter at Arrowhead Stadium. Dating back to 1980, Kansas City owns a tremendous 20-8 SU and 20-6-2 ATS record. Total players take note: The under owns a sweet 22-4-2 ATS mark in those 28 games!
In division play, the Raiders have broken their fair share of wallets notching an ugly 4-27 SU and 10-21 ATS mark in their last 31 battles. Until I see Oakland show improvements on both sides of the ball, I'll look to fade the Silver and Black on a weekly basis. Take Kansas City
BLACK WIDOW SPORTS
1* on San Francisco Giants +110
Barry Zito has come to life in the second half of the season, and so have the Giants as of late. Zito has allowed 4 earned runs while pitching 14 solid innings of work in his last two starts. Barry is 3-2 with a 3.16 ERA in four career starts against San Diego as well. Look for another solid outing from Zito as the Giants stay red hot Sunday. The Giants have now won 7 of their last 8 games overall. San Diego is 17-33 (-18.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. Zito is 7-1 (+9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season. Take the Giants on the Money Line.
3* on Toronto Blue Jays +110
We?ll Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start. This is a 45-30 ML System hitting 60% since 1997. Toronto?s Roy Halladay has allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 17 2/3 innings pitched against Boston, pitching a complete game in his last start facing the Sox. Halladay is a great value bet as an underdog on the road Sunday. Bet Toronto on the road.
The Angels are 4-2 under the total since clinching that division title. They are rotating and resting players. Even in Friday's comeback 5-3 win over Seattle, they got only five hits. Yet the newly crowned American League West champions made the most of them, winning for the fifth time in six games. 5 guys in the lineup were hitting under .236, including Juan Rivera, Mike Napoli, SS Wood and 2B Rodriguez. Runs won't be easy to come by this game as a pair of hard throwing aces are on the hill in Felix Hernandez and Ervin Santana. Hernandez has 160 Ks in 179 innings, while Santana has fanned 197 in 198 innings. Seattle's offense has been terrible all year, ranked third worst in the AL in runs scored. Santana has dominated this free swinging Seattle lineup, at 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA against them this season. Don't look for many runs, play the Mariners/Angels under the total.
We've seen it over and over and it's not just a theory, it's a fact. When a team loses its best player, they frequently find a way to overcome the adversity and perform at an even higher level for a game or two before reality sets in. The New England Patriots now find themselves in that situation with the injury to Tom Brady. The Pats are about as good as it gets when it comes to circling the wagons, and I expect a huge effort from them here. The Jets are clearly improved and have a swagger with Brett Favre calling the signals, but New England is still the better team and I expect them to show it here. The Patriots are the choice.
Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7
Today the Atlanta Falcons will be on the road as they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons had a blow out win last weekend against the Lions, 34-21, but despite the glory of rookie Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, the victory was credited more to the incompetence on the part of Detroit than the talent of Atlanta. If you saw the game it would have been obvious that this wasn?t just ?talk? either. Ryan looked like a veteran exploiting a weak Lion defense leading 21-0 in the 1st quarter. Suffice it to say the Falcons weren?t under much pressure. This week for Ryan and the Falcons will be a case of easy come easy go, as they will be dealing with a significantly stronger defense as well as a tough crowd. Not only do the Buccaneers have one of the top defenses in the NFL, they also have one of the most complex. For inexperienced Ryan who has not yet established a good cohesiveness with the WR corps, the Buc defense is going reveal his true rookie colors. He is going to be pressured to make quick decisions and throws from behind in a game where the flow is going to be completely different from that of last week. The Falcons coming off such an explosive win gives Tampa Bay a great advantage. In situations like these, the following opponent is forewarned. The Buccaneers are also coming off a discouraging loss to the Saints which leaves them with a sense of urgency. They played well in that game but were set back by a few damaging mishaps. The offense however was superb, with running backs Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn achieving a combined 145 yards for 19 attempts. Jeff Garcia completed 2 passes to 6 different receivers. Atlanta did not face this kind of offense last week because of their early lead and will be hard pressed this week against the Buccaneers. For Tampa Bay, it doesn?t matter who is at QB (Jeff Garcia or Brian Griese), will have no trouble controlling the ball either defensively or offensively making this game tremendously valuable. Lay the points! Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7!
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins
Jim Zorn and the Washington Redskins had quite an auspicious beginning to the season. Suspect play calling and a lack of crisp play had the Skins playing from behind all game long. Now after the showing against the New York Giants, the marketplace has over adjusted and discounted Washington too much. With the extra few days to prepare, Washington is more likely to show improvement and they will bounce back in this perfect situation against this perfect opponent. Their first opponent, the New York Giants, continued to get pressure from their defense despite the loss of Osi Umenyiora to injury and Michael Strahan to retirement. The pressure confused Jason Campbell and the Redskins did not seem to make the adjustments as the game progressed. This week against New Orleans they face a defense that is not so predicated on quarterback pressure. Last week the Saints got an impressive win against a divisional opponent and are now been inflated by the oddsmakers. However, last season New Orleans was 30 out of 32 NFL teams in passing defense and 26th in total defense with a turnover margin of -7. They are expected to be improved but they are not as good as they showed last week.
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Redskins +1 over New Orleans
The Skins come into this game off a week one loss to Giants. New Orleans took care of the Bucs at home last week. Washington should have the advantage being at home and I like the way they matchup on offense. Look for Portis to have a big game and look for Jason Campbell to play well against a soft Saints defense. When the Saints are on offense they will miss a healthy Deuce McAllister and I don't think Bush can take the load himself. Look for the Washington secondary to have a huge game. Take the Redskins.
3* on Toronto Blue Jays +110
We’ll Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start. This is a 45-30 ML System hitting 60% since 1997. Toronto’s Roy Halladay has allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 17 2/3 innings pitched against Boston, pitching a complete game in his last start facing the Sox. Halladay is a great value bet as an underdog on the road Sunday. Bet Toronto on the road.
1 Unit on Arizona Cardinals -6
Miami is 2-12 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons, 0-7 ATS in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons, and 0-6 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons. The Cards have home field and a talented offense on its side in this one and that means bad news for the Phins. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September and we'll take them here as they keep this trend alive.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Washington Redskins +1
The injury to New Orleans ' top receiver Marques Colston will really hurt the Saints this week. He is the lone guy that can draw double teams to create mismatch opportunities for the Saints. This will allow the Skins to play the Saints straight up and that gives them the edge at home. The Redskins are a rock solid 8-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record while the Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. We'll take the Skins at home.
1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +4.5
I like the Raiders to win a close game against a K.C. team that is going to have trouble scoring the football all season long. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional road contests, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kansas City , and the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. I like Oakland 's young players to be much more relaxed this week and to take it to a poor Chiefs team.
Hilton Top 5
New England 92
San Francisco 86
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Oakland @ Kansas City
Both teams started this season with a defeat. Oakland got trashed by Denver while Kansas lost against New England in a low scoring game. Huard and Russel have pretty much the same average in completed passes but Huard have better yard gain in each attempt. Kansas showed last weekend that their defensive pack is really there to make life harder to opponent offensive players and New England is not exactly the same as Oakland. As for the defensive pack of Oakland we can say totally the opposite: very easy to get pass them. Including pre-season, Oakland never got more than 25 points against, which means that they would have to score at least 12 points to get the Over. With our system we get that we won't see too much points on this game and the line shows perfectly well that this will be a tight game. Go for the Under on this one.
Recommendation: 3* Under 36 @ -110
Buffalo @ Jacksonville
Mixed starts for both teams. Jacksonville lost at Tennessee while Buffalo won against Seattle. Garrard and Edwards couldn't be closer in terms of individual stats after their first game. The only main difference is the number of interceptions where Edwards have none and Garrard have two. If we include pre-season, Jacksonville never managed to cover the line in a home game. Buffalo on the other hand, in their two away games, managed to cover the spread in all those games. So, isn't this the information that would make you go with Buffalo? Well, not for us. Jacksonville playing at home is not exactly the same and the line shows us that. If Buffalo were to be so less of an underdog and Jacksonville not so favorite, why was the line set so high? Well, because Jacksonville will win and cover the spread. The line is already reaching 4.5 in some places but we think it won't drop more than that. Jacksonville is the play.
Recommendation: 1* Jacksonville -4.5 @ -110
Miami @ Arizona
Pretty much similar to the previous game where the home team is coming after a victory and the away team after a defeat. Miami, a typical passing run team against Arizona, a more balanced team between passing and rushing. Defensively speaking, Miami will struggle against the rushing way of play from Arizona and that would be a great reason for our play. We expect Arizona to make it hard for Miami to advance through pass and run and that would be a huge advantage for them. Besides this, Miami, on grass, is not the best team.
Recommendation: 1* Arizona -6.5 @ -110
San Diego @ Denver
These two teams played a high scoring game last weekend and everyone seems to expect the same this Week. According to our system that might be a mistake as neither of the teams will have the same amount of yards earned, in average. Both defensives will have a tougher game to earn yards. Completion percentage for both quarterbacks is not amazing but none of them have Interceptions against. Last games between these two where the line was higher than 44, the game ended, always, as an Under one. Today we expect the same.
Recommendation: 1* Under 45.5 @-110
Investment Playmakers Guaranteed Selections
Washington Redskins +1
96% AFC Total of the Month
Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will have their hands full with the Titans defense in this match-up! The Bengals were unable to protect Palmer last week and produced just 189 yards of offense. The Titan offense will have the immobile Todd Collins under center. Expect the Titans to try to run the ball against a Bengal defense that allowed 229 yards of rushing last week. Both teams combined for 27 points in their first week of action. The weather will be a factor in this game. There is a 70% chance of rain and the wind will be blowing 27 to 30 miles an hour with of guts of up to 46 miles per hour. The Titans have seen their last five games in September go under. They are 10-1 under after a straight up win. The Bengals are 5-0 under when they face a team with a winning record and when they are coming off an ATS loss. Take the under here
Golden Contender Guaranteed Selections
On Sunday afternoon the NFC game of the month is on the Detroit Lions game 200 at 1pm eastern.The lions fit one of the better home dog systems in the database,due to theri road fav loss last week in Atlanta.This week they will be waiting in the wings ready to pounce on a Gbay team that is a little over confident following their close win vs the Viknigs on Monday night football.The Lions went 4-0 in the preseason before the loss last week, and will get back to playing better football, and perhaps pull an upset of their own here on Sunday
Brian Graves Guaranteed Selections
Arizona -6.5 over Miami
Miami played well last week but not well enough and now they have to fly across the country to play an Arizona team that was very good in the second half of the opening week. The Cardinals have very athletic and aggressive corners and that is where this game will be won. Rolle and Green will make Pennington pay for his lack of arm strength and the Cardinals will turn their interceptions into points in what will be one of the bigger routs of the weekend!
Jimmy Thompson Guaranteed Selections
The Skins were horrible in New York on offense but we like the fact they have had extra practice time since that Thursday opener in New York and generally teams improve the most from week 1 to week 2. The one unit that will come in with alot of confidence is the Redskin defense which was great after the first quarter. On the other side the Saints have a below average defense to begin with and now they are missing several key guys including Fujita, Gay and Harper. We like the Redskins to make some big plays in the passing game with the Saints depleted secondary and the loss of Marques Colston will definitely put more pressure on Brees and Bush today. Remember neither played very well early last year and we see the same thing against a quality Redskin defense. Skins win 31-17!
Seattle vs LAA
Game Two of Doubleheader
1 STAR: (931) MILWAUKEE (+$163) over Philadelphia
(Listing Suppan and Myers)
(Risking $500 to win $845)
20* Green Bay -3
10* New Orleans +1
10* Colts -1.5
10* New England +1.5
10* Denver -1
10* Tampa Bay -7
(5*) San Francisco/Seattle Under
(4*) Carolina Panthers
(4*) Buffalo/Jacksonville Under
(3*) Buffalo Bills
(3*) Houston Texans
(3*) Oakland/Kansas City Under
(3*) Cleveland/Pittsburgh Over
(Superplay) Washington Redskins
WISEGUY - Miami +6.5
2 units Oakland +3.5
2 units Ny Giants -8.5
5 units Indianapolis -1.5
10 units Green Bay -3
10 units Jacksonville -5
15 units New England +1.5
10 units NFL Teaser of the week
Carolina +7.5, New England +11.5, Denver +8.5
10 units underdog of the day New England
Re: Sunday Service Plays
ATS Lock Pro
6 units Indy -1
4 units Buffalo +5
4 units San Diego +1.5
4% Pitt -6
3% Tenn +1
3% GB -2.5
5* NE +1.5
Inner Circle - Buff +5
Personal Best - SF +6.5
Platinum - SF/Sea un 38
Platinum - SD/Den ov 45.5
3* NO +1
3* KC -3
Big Gun - Cinn -1
Hat - Indy -1
CINCINNATI BENGALS -1
Opposite Action Plays
Steelers / Browns OVER 43.5
OAKLAND RAIDERS +3.5
Bills / Jaguars UNDER 37
PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6
Colts / Vikings OVER 43
TAMPA BAY BUCS -7
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
CAROLINA PANTHERS -3
WASHINGTON REDSKINS +1
3.5* Car -3 minus 120
3* Tenn +1
3* San Diego Over 47
Phil's Personal Plays
4* Car-3.minus 120
3* Tampa -7
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Detroit Lions +3
Pittsburgh Steelers -6
After a division MNF game at home against a physical foe, the Packers now travel off a short week with a few bruises and face a team that looked as bad as any during week one. The correction in the line has GB favored on the road with a new quarterback making his 2nd start and first away from home. The Lions are going to be improved this year, last week's results notwithstanding and I am not certain that Green Bay deserves to be a road favorite here. Green Bay had the good fortune to face a team with a quarterback that was limited in his abilities and against a poor Viking pass defense. The Lions will bring more offensive balance and a Cover Two defensive scheme that will show improvement from last week's disaster in stopping the run. They were taken out of their game plan of running the ball when they got down 21-0 last week. The Lions are one of the strongest home/road dichotomy teams in the league, averaging nearly 27 points at home and only 21 away. Last week's results for both teams give us value with the home dog.
Lions 27, Packers 21.
I generally dislike laying points on the road, but the Browns are not the team that last year's results make them appear. First off, they only played one team with a winning record in 2007 and snuck up on some people with a new offensive scheme. They have been hit hard by injury already and face a team that they have had little success against. The Steelers are more physical and can run the ball, which the Browns struggle to do. Their offense looks out of synch and the defensive line has not shown that the addition of Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams has mattered much. Last year's results have given the Browns some national TV games, but this will be the only year that happens as they will revert to the under achieving team that they have been. The defense is their achilles heel and the O can not carry them. The Steelers defense is more physical and can control the line of scrimmage against a makeshift offensive line. In the second half, the differences become apparent.
Steelers 31, Browns 17
4* Sea/SF Under
3* 3 wayTeasers Min+NE , NE+TB, TB+Min
EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
Elite play JACKSONVILLE -4
Blue Chip play SEATTLE -6.5
Insider play DENVER -1
Bookies Night Mare Play St Louis+9
Bookie Ball Buster Play Washington pk
Bookie Ball Buster Play Cleveland+6
Platinum play TAMPA BAY -7
Gold key play WASHINGTON PK
Gold Key play OAKLAND/KANSAS CITY OVER
Buff/Jax un 37.5
I again split my two premium plays yesterday as Vanderbilt came through in the second half but thanks to Michigan dropping the ball all over the field the Michigan/Notre Dame game went way over the posted total. I still had an 8-4-1 day in the college football for a very profitable day but here are two selections off of my ten play NFL card today:
211 Miami/Arizona Over 39 -1.05 (2 Unit Play)
200 Detroit +4 -1.05 (3 Unit Play)
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
TAM / 207 ATL Under 37.5
Bucs UNDER Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay saw their Week One games go over the total but a lot of that had to do with their opponents! Atlanta played an overmatched Detroit team and simply ran all over them. Tampa Bay faced a Saints team that likes to play at a high tempo on offense and then just worry about defense later. In other words, the games were helped to go over moreso by their opponents than by these teams themselves. Now that the Falcons and Buccaneers are matched up this week we feel this one spells under. Atlanta will not be able to run the ball easily this week against this division rival and that means they'll have to turn to the air. With a rookie QB and the fact they were able to get by without doing much through the air last week, this could really stifle the Falcons offense. Additionally, Atlanta was at home last week and now they must go on the road where the challenges will be much bigger for an offense led by such an inexperienced quarterback. No matter how many men the Buccaneers stack in the box the Falcons are still going to turn to the run often and, of course, rushing plays are an ?under players? best friend and will help keep the clock moving in this one. As for Tampa Bay?s offense they did throw a lot last week but part of that was having to keep with the Joneses as they were playing a pass-happy Saints team and they faced them in their building where they had to adjust to their tempo. Now, at home and against a weaker division rival, look for the Buccaneers game plan here to be to grind out a win. Last season the Buccaneers held the Falcons to a combined total of just ten points in their two games. Overall, Tampa Bay was very solid at home last season as they held opponents to an average of just 14 points per game! Tampa Bay will want to keep the Falcons offense off the field so they can prevent Atlanta from developing the kind of rhythm that they did versus Detroit last week. This means that the Buccaneers will focus on their own ground game in this one and again, that means we see a lot of clock get chewed up! The Bucs home games had stayed under in 6 of their last 8 before their last two last season went over the total. Couple this with the fact that they allowed 24 points on the road last week and took the loss, and you can see why we're expecting a very strong defensive effort from the Bucs here in a game where Coach Gruden's troops will emphasize ball control and dominating time of possession! It's an UNDER!
Re: Sunday Service Plays
Sixth Sense Sports
KANSAS CITY –3.5 Oakland 36
KC came close to upsetting NE last week. They averaged just 4.6yppl while NE averaged 5.7yppl. Matt Cassel replaced Tom Brady and looked fine. Not sure yet if that is a product of the very solid talent NE has or KC isn’t very good, especially after losing Jared Allen to the Vikings. Both quarterbacks that replaced their starters (Cassel and Huard) threw for very good numbers but most of that yardage was done with one long pass play each. Oakland, meanwhile, looked terrible at home against Denver, allowing 7.5yppl, including 12.0yps. Oakland moved the ball some on their own, averaging 5.4yppl, including 4.8ypr, but the defense gave up way too much yardage. Oakland has played tough here in KC over the years. They won here last year and although they lost the four previous years, no loss was by more than four points. Granted a four point loss here doesn’t bring home the money but the games have been close. They lost six years ago by 10 points and won the three previous years to that. KC qualifies in a negative situation based on their loss last week, which is 112-58-10. Oakland also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. The Oakland defense is better than they showed last week and it may turn out they played a very good offense, something, which KC is definitely not. We should see a much better effort against a poor offense this week. Javon Walker should also be back to help the Oakland offense. Expect plenty of running from the Raiders offense. This game also qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 75-34-4. OAKLAND 17 KANSAS CITY 14
Cincinnati PK Tennessee 37.5
Cincinnati was absolutely brutal last week. They were even more brutal than I thought they would be. Cincinnati averaged just 3.1yppl and allowed a pretty anemic Baltimore offense with a rookie quarterback 4.8yppl. The defense is still terrible and the offense is getting worse each year. Cincinnati passed for 89 yards for the whole game. It won’t get much easier this week against a solid Tennessee defense, which held Jacksonville to 3.2yppl, including just 1.9ypr and 3.7yps. Tennessee was pretty good on offense, gaining 5.4yppl, including 6.9yps. Vince Young was hurt last week and will miss this game. That’s a good thing. Kerry Collins is much better at throwing the ball and therefore, on the road, at helping the Titans score and win a game. I had Tennessee here last year and they were blown out but that was with Vince Young and I expect much different results this year. Much better defense in Tennessee, much better running game with Tennessee and a much better coach. Cincinnati qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Tennessee also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. Numbers favor Cincinnati by one point before accounting for the situations. Too much defense and better running game along with value and the situations. TENNESSEE 24 CINCINNATI 17
Indianapolis –2 MINNESOTA 43.5
Both teams were extremely disappointed in their week one results. Indy looked out of synch and allowed the Bears a lot of rushing yards. In all Indy allowed an anemic Chicago offense to average 5.1yppl, 4.7ypr (183 yards) and 5.9yps. The Indy offense couldn’t move the ball, as they averaged just 4.4yppl and 4.7yps. Minnesota did what they do best, rushing for 187 yards at 5.7ypr. Unfortunately, they allowed big plays in the passing game, allowing 8.1yps and big plays in the rushing game (something they normally don’t allow) at 5.1ypr. Overall they allowed 6.5yppl and averaged only 5.1yppl thanks to their anemic passing game again. The Vikings are in trouble when they get behind because they can’t score quickly when they need to. Minnesota qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Minnesota does qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42. Tough game to call. Hard to believe Indy won’t bounce back after their bad performance last week but maybe Peyton being out during the preseason and no Jeff Saturday (potentially no Dallas Clark) makes it harder for the offense to get going. It won’t be easy against a big, tough physical defense like the Vikings playing at home where they definitely have an advantage. If Indy can’t stop the rush again this week, they won’t win this game. But, it’s hard to take Tavaris Jackson over Peyton Manning. This game does qualify in an early season under situation, which is 75-34-4. INDIANAPOLIS 24 MINNESOTA 17
WASHINGTON PK New Orleans 42
Washington looked about as bad in their first game as they were in the preseason. They gained just 4.0yppl, 3.5ypr and 4.5yps. Meanwhile, the defense played average allowing the Giants to gain 5.1yppl, 5.8ypr and 5.4yps. The Saints were impressive against a good TB defense, gaining 7.3yppl, including 10.2yps with big passing plays. The Saints defense wasn’t great but did enough to win the game allowing 5.6yppl, 7.3ypr (that could be a problem against a good Washington rushing attack) and only 4.8yps. Washington qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. The Saints are missing some key starters this week and I’m not sure I like the rush defense match up against the Redskins rushing attack. At least I don’t like it enough that it will keep me off a best bet play on NO despite the solid situation in their favor. NEW ORLEANS 24 WASHINGTON 23
Green Bay –3 DETROIT 45.5
Tom Jackson of ESPN declared the Lions as his pick to win the NFC North this year. Say what? I don’t care if you think they have some good personnel, how can you possibly pick the Lions knowing full well what this organization is all about. Hard to say I was surprised last week knowing I don’t think much of the Lions but never did I expect them to play as badly as they did. They were steam rolled by Atlanta for 8.5ypr and 318 yards rushing. Wow! Atlanta averaged 11.1yps. Atlanta had two long pass plays that accounted for most of that yardage and they only attempted 14 passes. The Lions averaged 6.8yps so the passing game wasn’t terrible. They just couldn’t stop what is probably an average Atlanta offense at best. GB looked very good (especially with the debut of Aaron Rodgers) gaining 6.5yppl, 5.1ypr and 8.1yps against a big, tough physical Viking defense. They held the Vikings to just 4.7yps but did allow Minnesota to gain 187 yards rushing at 5.7ypr. Minnesota averaged 5.3ypr last year and if you take out the rushing yards gained by quarterback Tavaris Jackson, they averaged 5.1ypr, which is about par for the Vikings offense. Detroit qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Packers have won the two games played here with McCarthy as head coach, 31-24 and 37-26. Seven of the past ten meetings here have totaled at least 47 points. Packers simply have too much talent on both sides of the ball to not like them here with the situation backing them. Numbers favor GB by 10 points and predict about 53 points. GREEN BAY 33 DETROIT 20
CAROLINA –3 Chicago 37
Very impressed with the Bears last week. I’m not sold on them yet but did take notice to their 183 yards rushing at 4.7ypr and limiting the Indy offense to just 4.4yppl, including just 4.7yps. I like Carolina a lot this year and look for them to win their division. They averaged 5.5yppl, including 4.9ypr and 5.9yps against the Chargers last week. They did allow SD to average 5.7yppl, including 7.5yps, which could be a concern. I don’t have any situations on either team in this game but will lean slightly towards Carolina in a game that should tell us a lot about the Bears. CAROLINA 21 CHICAGO 17
New York Giants –8.5 ST LOUIS 41.5
Rams were about as bad as I thought and I don’t see it getting much better for them this week. They allowed Philly to gain 7.4yppl and 10.6yps. They gained just 3.7yppl, including 2.4ypr and 4.3yps. The Giants were solid against the Redskins, gaining 5.1yppl to just 4.0yppl for Washington and they averaged 4.8ypr against a good Redskins rush defense. I don’t have any situations on this game but this is a solid mismatch with a good rushing team against a poor rush defense. Of course, the spread is the great equalizer. Rams were just 1-4 ATS as a home dog last year and those games totaled at least 43 points in every game. Giants too physical for the Rams. NY GIANTS 27 ST LOUIS 17
JACKSONVILLE –5 Buffalo 37.5
I thought Jacksonville would win their division this year but that doesn’t look good now. David Garrard, who barely had any interceptions last year, threw two last week. The offense was terrible. They averaged just 3.2yppl, including just 1.9ypr and 3.7yps. They allowed Tennessee to average 5.4yppl, including 4.3ypr and 6.9yps. It doesn’t get any easier for a Jacksonville offensive line that lost both of their starting guards in last week’s game. Now, they face a Buffalo offense, which did a good job last week. They gained 5.5yppl (5.3yppl if you don’t count the fake field goal pass), including a healthy 7.3yps. They allowed Seattle just 3.8yppl and 3.6yps, sacking the Seahawks five times. They will face a similar offense this week that is weak on receivers and will allow sacks. Jacksonville was sacked last week seven times by Tennessee. Jacksonville qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Just don’t see an anemic Jacksonville offense pulling away from a good Buffalo defense and completely stopping an improved Buffalo offense. BUFFALO 17 JACKSONVILLE 13
TAMPA BAY –7 Atlanta 37.5
Atlanta destroyed Detroit last week, gaining 474 yards at 8.5yppl, including 7.6ypr (318 yards rushing) and 11.1yps. They held Detroit to 5.4yppl but 6.8yps so Detroit did move the ball a little on the Falcons offense. TB gave up some big passing plays to the Saints by allowing 10.2yps and 7.3yppl. They did average 7.3ypr themselves but just 4.8yps. Jeff Garcia will probably miss this game for TB. Hard to believe Matt Ryan will perform well in his first road game against a good TB defense that will certainly be focused after their loss last week and be out to stop the run first. I don’t have any situations on this game but will lean towards TB. TAMPA BAY 24 ATLANTA 13
SEATTLE –7 San Francisco 37.5
Seattle played about how I thought they would last week with only one healthy receiver. They gained just 3.8yppl, including just 3.6yps and were sacked five times. They lost Nate Burelson and now have no healthy wide receivers. Seattle allowed Buffalo 5.5yppl and 7.3yps. SF lost 13-23 to Arizona but that game was probably the misleading score of the week. SF averaged 6.6yppl, including 5.4ypr and 7.6yps. They moved the ball just fine. Unfortunately, they turned the ball over five times to no turnovers for Arizona. Arizona averaged just 4.0yppl, including just 2.8ypr. SF qualifies in a general situation, which is 50-21-1 and Seattle qualifies in a negative situation based on their performance last week, which is 75-28-2 and plays against them here. This is a completely different 49ers team this year that should be able to move the ball. They have a better quarterback and a better system to run their offense. The defense is just fine. Now, they get a bunch of points and a very banged up Seattle offense. SAN FRANCISCO 23 SEATTLE 16
ARIZONA –6.5 Miami 39.5
Arizona won last week 23-13 but they were badly out played from the line of scrimmage. They gained just 4.0yppl and allowed SF to average 6.6yppl. Arizona averaged just 2.8ypr and 5.3yps while allowing SF 5.4ypr and 7.6yps. Miami was beaten pretty badly at the line of scrimmage last week, gaining just 4.3yppl and allowing 5.2yppl to the Jets. Miami allowed 7.2yps and gained just 2.9ypr and 4.9yps. I don’t have any situations on either team in this game. Pretty hard for me to lay points with Arizona until they prove they are better than they showed last week. Also hard to take Miami with any points. I’ll call it a seven point game and let the spread determine my lean. ARIZONA 24 MIAMI 17
NY JETS –1 New England 37
NE suffered a huge blow last week by losing Tom Brady for the season. They averaged 5.7yppl and 6.8yps. Take away a 51 yard pass to Randy Moss and those numbers get pretty average quickly. Average is probably the way this offense will perform the rest of the season. The defense allowed KC just 4.6yppl, 3.8ypr and 5.2yps. The Jets looked decent against a bad Miami team, gaining 5.2yppl and allowing 4.3yppl. The Jets averaged 7.2yps but those numbers also get pretty average if you take away the long pass to Jericho Cotchery. They allowed Miami just 2.9ypr last week. I don’t have any situations on this game but it should be a very interesting game. With Brady out, this game becomes a little more equal for both teams. I will lean with the Jets because they are at home and I expect Favre to be able to do more than Cassel who is substituting for Brady. Jets haven’t beaten NE here since 2000 but much different team now with Favre and no Brady. NY JETS 16 NEW ENGLAND 13
San Diego –1 DENVER 45.5
Denver was very impressive last week in their thrashing of Oakland 41-14. They gained 7.5yppl, including 12.0yps. They allowed Oakland 5.4yppl, including 4.8ypr and 6.0yps but most of that was after the game was out of control. SD allowed Carolina to gain 5.5yppl, including 4.9ypr and 5.9yps. Carolina is a very good team this year and SD did average 5.7yppl, including 7.5yps. The Chargers are hurting on defense this week with a few key players out and Denver gets back Brandon Marshall. I don’t have any situations on the side in this game. SD had lost six straight here in Denver before winning the last two years. I like Denver this year and getting points at home, coming off a solid performance is intriguing. DENVER 24 SAN DIEGO 20
Pittsburgh –6 CLEVELAND 44.5
It doesn’t get much easier for Cleveland this week as they take on another physical team that can run and throw the ball well. Cleveland is banged up on offense and the defense doesn’t look good. Cleveland allowed Dallas 7.7yppl, including 5.4ypr and 10.0yps. Those were worse but Dallas got out to such a huge lead they cruised in the end. The Browns averaged just 4.8yppl, including just 4.6yps. They did average 5.1ypr. Pittsburgh dominated Houston last week, gaining 5.2yppl to just 4.0yppl for Houston. They averaged 4.7ypr and 6.1yps and held Houston to just 4.2yps, sacking Houston five times. The Browns qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 51-20-0 but Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. Pittsburgh has won eight of nine games here, including six of the nine by at least seven points. Physical mismatch for Pittsburgh that I wish I would have believed in last week against Dallas. PITTSBURGH 27 CLEVELAND 20
DALLAS –6.5 Philadelphia 46.5
Both teams looked great last week. Dallas averaged 7.7yppl, including 5.4ypr and 10.0yps. They allowed Cleveland just 4.8yppl, including just 4.6yps. Philly racked up 7.4yppl, including 10.6yps and allowed the Rams just 3.7yppl, 2.4ypr and 4.3yps. Philly has dominated Dallas in Dallas winning the last two years here and six of the past eight years. One of those two losses was by just two points so getting 6.5 points in this game looks like a lot with a good Philly defense. I don’t have any situations on this game and my numbers favor Dallas by about six points and predict about 45 points. DALLAS 26 PHILADELPHIA 20
HOUSTON –4.5 Baltimore 37.5 (Moved to Monday night)
This game is being moved to Monday night because of Hurricane Ike. Baltimore completely shut down Cincinnati in week one, gaining 4.8yppl, including 5.0ypr (229 yards rushing) but just 4.4yps. They allowed Cincinnati just 3.1yppl, 2.8ypr and 3.3yps. Houston had problems in Pittsburgh. They were out gained 5.2yppl to 4.0yppl, out rushed 4.7ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed 6.1yps to 4.2yps. It appears they will face a very tough defense again this week with the Ravens. Not sure how well Baltimore can move the ball, given they didn’t do a lot through the air against Cincinnati but they should be able to rush the ball well if last week is any indication. Houston qualifies in an early season negative situation, which is 112-58-10 and plays against them here. Houston also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 107-45-8 and also plays against them. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 634-515-42, including a subset, which is 508-392-30. I’m a little nervous taking a rookie quarterback on the road with an offense that has trouble scoring, especially against a team that plays much better at home. Situations are strong and in Baltimore’s favor. I will take a shot. BALTIMORE 20 HOUSTON 17
YTD 3-1 +5.70%
GREEN BAY –3
SAN FRANCISCO +7