Thursday Service Plays

Thursday Service Plays

Wunderdog

North Carolina at Rutgers
Pick: North Carolina +5.5

Rutgers has found that life after Ray Rice is going to be difficult. Last week they were held to less than 10 points in a game for just the second time in 29 games. Mike Teel moved the team between the 20s, but Rutgers had problems all game long getting into the end-zone. They were only able to generate just 3.1 yards per carry and that put a lot of pressure on Teel, who ultimately made two key mistakes, both ending in interceptions. The Rutgers defense also showed some shortcomings as they allowed 5.3 yards per carry and 422 yards in total. The Tar Heels had to come from behind to win against McNeese State and it took a tremendous effort by Brandon Tate to do it. Tate will be the most explosive man on the field for this one, as he netted 397 all-purpose yards last week. He returned a punt 82 yards for a TDand a kickoff 54 yards. He also carried the ball three times for over 100 yards, and caught a TD pass for 57 yards. Overall, this North Carolina team has 10 starters back from their offense last season. Rutgers really struggled on offense, and if Tate gets free for an easy one, it is going to be hard for the Scarlet Knights to get it back. Both of these teams should play better in their second game, but unless Rutgers finds some consistent yardage in the backfield, Carolina will be right there at the end. I like the points here.

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WiseGuyHandicapping

3 UNITS Rutgers -4.5

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Matt Foust

North Carolina @ Rutgers Over 46.0

Tonight’s edition of college football features a match-up between the ACC and the Big East as the North Carolina Tar Heels meet the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Rutgers Stadium in New Brunswick, NJ. The total is set at 46 and we are going to with the Over.

Last week Rutgers only scored seven points in a 24-7 home loss to Fresno State. A strong Bulldog offense amassed 206 yards on the ground and another 216 through the air and they took it to the Scarlet Knights in the second half. Rutgers played like it was their first game of the season, as senior quarterback Mike Teel threw two interceptions and the Ray Rice-less offense struggled to find a rhythm. Still, the Knights accumulated 369 yards of offense and Teel threw for 263 yards against an improved Fresno defense. I expect even more from them tonight as they now have their first game jitters out of the way.

The Tar Heels had a difficult time finding a groove in their first game too. They escaped with a narrow 35-27 home win over Football Championship Subdivision McNeese State. They allowed the Cowboys 391 yards of offense and 239 through the air. McNeese State also held the ball for 35:16 to Carolina’s 24:44. UNC produced 384 yards in their limited time with the ball and they rushed for 163 and a 5.6 yard per carry average. Wide receiver Brandon Tate salvaged the game for the Tar Heels with his special team’s heroics, scoring on an 82 yard punt return and accounting for 397 all-purpose yards.

Tonight’s game should feature a lot of passing, especially from the Scarlet Knights. They are transitioning to a more pass oriented attack with Rice gone, as the strength of their team are now Teel and a good group of receivers. While the Tar Heels defense is suppose to be improved, Rutgers should be able to move the ball through the air. And they’ve had ample time, as has UNC, to correct their first game mistakes since both teams are coming off bye weeks. The Tar Heels will be able to move the ball on the ground against Rutgers front too, and UNC should also have some nice field position to work with as their special teams are a notch above Rutgers. This game will certainly feature enough offense to get over the 46 point total.

Things to consider: The Over is 5-1 over the last five years when UNC is a road dog coming off a win. The Over is 5-1 the last five years with Rutgers coming off a bye week.

Pick: Take the Over 46

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Nelly

Milwaukee – over Philadelphia

The comeback win for Milwaukee on Wednesday afternoon was one of the biggest wins of the season for the team. The Brewers struggled considerably on the last home stand and a heated road trip against a team chasing them should provide a boost in intensity. The Brewers offense has been in a slump but the lineup has the chance to face a left-hander after six straight games against right-handed pitchers.

Milwaukee has an amazing 31-17 record against left-handed starters this season and even with a .225 team average over the past ten games the Brewers have maintained a .312 average against southpaws. Milwaukee has won four of the last six meetings with the Phillies including a win over Jamie Moyer earlier this season. Moyer allowed eight hits over six innings in that game and several Brewers have excellent career averages against the veteran starter. Moyer has very mediocre numbers at home this season with a 4.84 ERA and the Phillies are just 7-7 in his home starts.

Although Milwaukee is just 3-7 in the last ten games the Brewers are 20-7 in the last 27 road games. The Brewers have enjoyed a huge home field edge in past seasons but this year the Brewers have become a solid road team. Milwaukee is seven games above .500 in road games this season which is the best in the National League.

Milwaukee’s Ben Sheets has not allowed a run in three straight starts and Milwaukee is 11-5 in his road starts this season. Sheets owns a 2.74 ERA on the road and he pitched extremely well the last time he faced the Phillies for a 3-2 win in this stadium last season. The Phillies are hitting just .250 over the last ten games and Sheets can be dominant at his best, which he has been close to in recent games.

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Jimmy The Moose

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

The Rockies have lost 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. In their last 44 road games vs. a team with a winning home record the Rockies are 14-30. Colorado is 4-12 in Jimenez's last 16 road starts.The Rockies are 1-5 in his last 6 starts coming off 5 days of rest.The Braves are 39-18 in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a losing record.The Braves are 10-4 in Jurrjen's last 14 home starts.The Rockies are 3-14 in their last 17 trips to Atlanta.Play on the Atlanta Braves -.

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Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs close out their three-game set with the Cardinals in St. Louis Thursday evening when they send Rich Harden to the hill at Busch Stadium. And if it's Thursday it's the Cubbies day as they are 5-0 in their last game on Thursdays while Harden is 7-1 in his last eight starts on Thursdays. To top it off the Cardinals are just 2-9 in their last 11 games on Thursdays. With Harden in great KW form with 4 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for Harden to make it 7 straight team start wins in a row here tonight.

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John Fina

Selection: Chicago/St. Louis Under 7.5

Reason: Put us down on the Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7.5 for our Free MLB Selection on Thursday. Today we expect to see a low-scoring game as the Chicago Cubs do battle with the St. Louis Cardinals. One reason why we see a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. This says it all... Chicago Cubs Starting Pitcher (Rich Harden) has a 0.95 ERA in his last 3 starts, while St. Louis Cardinals Starting Pitcher (Todd Wellemeyer) has a 3.43 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these teams will be sending to the mound solid starting pitchers. The bottom line, we should see a low-scoring game today! Take the Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals Under 7.5!

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Karl Garrett

Colorado +115 at ATLANTA 

Tonight, small underdog play on Colorado at Atlanta.

The Rockies have lost their last 4 games, and are on the verge of getting broomed out of Atlanta.

I don't see it happening, as I expect the Rockies to get things cooking against Jair Jurrjens who has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 19 innings of work.

Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off a win, and while he hasn't been on-fire down the strecth, he has the capabilty of fanning 8 or more Braves this evening, and giving his team a chance at the victory.

Look for that to be the case, and for the Rockies to break their losing streak in this one, as they avoid the sweep.

Take Colorado.

1♦ COLORADO

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Cubs -130 at ST. LOUIS 

The Cubbies held on last night for the 4-3 win, and tonight's price seems very reasonable to us on Rich Harden as he opposes Todd Wellemeyer.

Harden has allowed a grand total of 2 earned runs over his last 24 innings of work, while striking out 29 along the way!

The Cubs have won Harden's last 6 starts, and are 7-2 since he has come over from the A's, and climbed the hill.

Todd Wellemeyer is coming into this start off a win, but 5 of his 6 season losses this year have come at home.

Chicago has split the 8 games this year in St. Louis, and while they have won just twice over their last 10 games, they are 11-6 since last year at Busch.

Play on the Cubs to post another win.

3♦ CUBS

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Sports Advisors

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

North Carolina (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Rutgers (0-1 SU and ATS)

Rutgers, looking to bounce back from a season-opening trouncing, play host to the Tar Heels in a non-conference tilt in Piscataway, N.J.

The Scarlet Knights got rolled 24-7 by Fresno State on Sept. 1 as a 3½-point home chalk, failing to score until more than halfway through the fourth quarter. The Knights allowed 422 total yards, including 206 on the ground – with the Bulldogs’ Ryan Mathews going off for 163 yards and three TDs on 26 carries (6.27 yards per rush). Rutgers finished with 369 yards, but veteran QB Mike Teel (20 of 39, 263 yards) had no TDs against two INTs.

North Carolina barely held off Division I-AA McNeese State 35-27 on Aug. 30 in a non-lined home contest. The Tar Heels were actually outgained 391-384, allowing 239 yards in the air and another 152 on the ground, though Carolina rushed for 163 yards. Multi-purpose star Brandon Tate had an eye-popping 392 total yards, from rushing (3 carries, 106 yards), receiving (4 catches, 93 yards, 1 TD) and kick/punt returns (4 for 193 yards, 1 TD).

These teams met two years ago, with Rutgers taking a 21-16 victory as a 3½-point road pup.

The Scarlet Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall and 2-4 ATS in their last six as a home favorite, but they sport positive ATS trends of 10-2-1 in non-conference play, 4-1 on Thursday, 6-2 after a SU loss, 8-3 against winning teams and 10-4 after a pointspread setback.

The Tar Heels are on pointspread skids of 0-5 against the Big East, 2-5 after a SU win, 2-5 against teams with a losing record and 2-5 in September.

The over is on streaks of 15-7-1 for North Carolina on the road, 4-1 after a North Carolina victory, 9-1 with Rutgers coming off a bye and 7-1-1 for the Knights against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee (83-63) at Philadelphia (79-67)

The Brewers will hand the ball to Ben Sheets (13-7, 2.82 ERA) to open a key four-game weekend series at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies and veteran southpaw Jamie Moyer (13-7, 3.64).

Milwaukee rallied for a 4-3 victory on Wednesday to snap a three-game losing skid and salvage a three-game home series against the Reds. The Brewers, who lead the wild-card chase by four games over both the Astros and Phillies, have dropped seven of their last 10 overall, but they carry positive streaks of 5-1 on the road against lefties, 20-7 overall on the highway, 8-2 behind Sheets against the N.L. East and 14-5 overall with Sheets starting.

Philadelphia dropped two straight against Florida, including Wednesday’s 7-3 defeat, falling to 4-5 in its last nine games. On the bright side, the Phillies remain on runs of 10-4 at home, 5-2 against winning teams, 46-22 in series openers and 5-1 backing Moyer.

These two teams haven’t met since April, when they split a two-game series at Milwaukee. Philly is 4-1 in the last five clashes at Citizens Bank Park.

Sheets is coming off a sterling start Saturday against San Diego, scattering five hits and allowing just one walk in a complete-game, 1-0 victory. The veteran right-hander hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last three starts, covering 20 innings.

The Phillies are 5-1 in Moyer’s last six starts, including winning the last three in a row. On Sunday at Shea Stadium, the 45-year-old threw seven innings of scoreless two-hit ball in a 6-2 victory over the Mets.

Sheets is 6-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 road starts this season, and he’s 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in seven career starts against Philadelphia. Moyer is 4-4 with a 4.84 ERA and six no-decisions in 14 home starts this year, and he’s 8-5 with a 3.57 ERA in 16 starts and five relief appearances against Milwaukee.

The under is on a 6-1 tear in Sheets’ last seven starts and is on further runs of 5-0 for Sheets against the N.L. East and 14-5-2 for Milwaukee on the highway. For Philadelphia, the under has cashed in five of Moyer’s last six outings overall and is on streaks of 9-2 in Thursday games and 9-2 with Moyer facing a winning team. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five series clashes in Philly and 4-0 in Sheets’ last four starts against the Phillies.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Chicago Cubs (87-58) at St. Louis (78-67)

After getting a much-needed victory last night, the Cubs are scheduled to trot out Rich Harden (9-2, 1.99) to close a three-game set at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals, who will counter with fellow right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (12-6, 3.74).

Chicago entered Wednesday’s game in a 1-8 rut, but held on for a 4-1 victory to add to their N.L.-best record and maintain their 4½-game N.L. Central lead over Milwaukee. Despite their recent woes, though, the Cubs are on runs of 6-0 behind Harden and 15-4 on the highway.

St. Louis is still 4-2 in its last six at home, but the Cards are in funks of 2-9 on Thursday, 3-7 overall when Wellemeyer faces a winning team and 1-5 in his last six home starts against winning clubs.

Chicago holds a slim 6-5 season series lead against St. Louis.

The Cubs have ripped off six straight wins with Harden starting, including a 3-2 victory at Philadelphia in his most recent effort on Aug. 29. In that outing, Harden allowed two runs on three hits in five innings in getting a no-decision. Harden, who hasn’t taken a loss since July 21, has allowed just nine earned runs in his last nine starts, covering 54 innings (1.50 ERA).

Wellemeyer has gotten the win in four of his last six starts, including a 5-3 home victory over Florida on Saturday, in which he allowed three runs on five hits in eight innings. That snapped a two-game slide for the right-hander, games the Cards lost by a combined score of 15-0.

Harden is 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in eight road starts this season, and he’s 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA in one career start against St. Louis. Meanwhile, Wellemeyer is 8-5 with a 4.57 ERA in 15 home starts this year, and he’s 2-1 with a 4.08 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against Chicago.

The under is 5-1 in the last six clashes between these teams at Busch (2-0 this week), and the under for St. Louis is on runs of 6-0 overall and 5-0 at home. Conversely, the over for Chicago is on a 16-6 spree on the road and is 8-1 in its last nine Thursday games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS

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Bobby Maxwell

Chicago Cubs -135 at ST. LOUIS 

It's the rubber-game of this key three-game set for the Cubs and we're going with them to get this one like they did on Wednesday when they got a 4-1 win over the Cardinals.

Chicago has Rich Harden (9-2, 1.99 ERA) on the mound against St. Louis' Todd Wellemeyer (12-6, 3.74). The Cardinals are on slides of 2-9 on Thursday, 3-7 when Wellemeyer faces a winning team and 1-5 in his last six home starts against a winning team.

The Cubs have won six straight with Harden on the mound, including a 3-2 win at Philadelphia on Aug. 29 when he allowed two runs in five innings but got a no-decision. Harden hasn't lost since July 21 and he's allowed just nine earned runs in his last nine starts (1.50 ERA).

Wellemeyer is 8-5 with a 4.57 ERA at home this season and he's got a 4.08 ERA in four appearances against the Cubs. Meanwhile Harden has a 2.36 ERA in four road starts this season.

All season the Cubs have been the best team in the National League, but lately their bullpen has been letting them down. Look for Harden to get into the eighth inning in this one and them not to need the bullpen much. Play Chicago in this one.

3♦ CHICAGO CUBS

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Jim Feist

SEA Mariners @ LA Angels
Take Under

A glance at the pregame lineup card this week for the Mariners provided a sneak peek at what is to come. The second baseman was batting cleanup for the first time in his major-league career. A reserve middle infielder from Class AAA was serving as the designated hitter, while another minor-league call-up was playing third base, all because veteran Adrian Beltre is sidelined a few days while contemplating what to do about a persistently sore thumb. Beltre is one of the offensive and defensive cogs of this team, and when he's not around, things get dicey indeed because there's little left to shoulder his load for too long. The result was a loss where they scored 3 runs against the bad Texas Rangers pitching staff. Now they face the best staff in the AL. The Angels will have little trouble with this Triple AAA Seattle lineup. But will the Angels score? Seattle starter Brandon Morrow has been sensational, with a 1.42 ERA, fanning 55 in 44 innings. The Angels' Torii Hunter is injured and suspended, while Francisco Rodriguez is closing in on the saves title. All in all, don't look for many runs in this one. Play the Mariners/Angels under the total.

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Dave Cokin

COL Rockies @ ATL Braves
Take ATL Braves

The Rockies have really hurt themselves with back to back losses to the Braves and look like they're in trouble again tonight. Atlanta is getting some offense from guys who have largely struggled for much of the season like Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francouer. I also feel the Wednesday announcement by Bobby Cox that he will return for another year in the dugout is a good indicator. I'll spot the small price here with the Braves.

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Wild Bill

Chicago White Sox -120 (5 units)
Cleveland Indians  -110 (5 units)
Kansas City Royals +270 (5 units)
Texas Rangers +115 (5 units)
Chicago Cubs  -135 (5 units)
Colorado Rockies +120 (5 units)
Milwaukee Brewers -115 (5 units)
Giants -125 (5 units)

N Carolina-Rutgers Over 437½ (5 units)

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

MLB EARLY RELEASE
MILWAUKEE-118

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PlusLineSports

KC vs Minnesota

Minnesota -1.5

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Matt Fargo

Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs got a much needed win last night after blowing a 3-0 lead on Tuesday which was their eighth loss in the last nine games. This comes after a seven-game winning streak so it is obvious that this is just a short-term issue. The pitching is getting back in form with three straight good performances after a stretch of seven games of allowing an average of 6.4 rpg. While winning on the road was a problem early in the season, the Cubs are 15-4 in their last 19 road games.

After that big come from behind win on Tuesday, the Cardinals gave one back last night and it could be lights out as Houston has now taken over third place in the Wild Card standings. It has not been a great run as they have dropped seven of their last 11 games and while the pitching has been hot, the batting has not. St. Louis has averaged just 3.6 rpg over this 11-game stretch while hitting only .249. St. Louis has dropped 16 of the last 24 meetings in this series.

The Cubs pitching has been streaky of late but one pitcher who has not has been Rich Harden. He has been spectacular since coming over from Oakland as he is 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA in nine starts. The Cubs have gone 7-2 in those nine games including wins in six straight. Even with the recent team struggles, the Cubs gave Harden a skip in the rotation as to keep him fresh for the playoff drive and the playoffs themselves. He has allowed only two runs in three road starts.

Todd Wellemeyer has been pitching very well also with two straight quality starts but they cane after two straight non-quality outings. While he has not blown up much, he has been rather inconsistent, especially at home. He has a 4.75 ERA in 15 starts with only five of those outings being quality performances. His WHIP of 1.41 does not bode well against this offense either. He is coming off the biggest pitch count of his career last time out so his arm could have some dead effects. Play Chicago Cubs 1.5 Units

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Frank Jordan

Chicago Cubs vs. St Louis Cardinals    
Play: Chicago Cubs   

Rich Harden is back and ready to go after missing a start as the Cubs and Cardinals finish up their series in St. Louis. In their game on Wednesday St. Louis got out to the 1-0 with a run in the bottom of the first but Chicago Cubs came back with 4 in the top of the second and help off the Cardinals in the ninth where they scored 2 to win 4-3. Rich Harden is 9-2 with an era under 2 and Todd Wellemeyer is 12-6 with an era under 3.75. Look for Harden to end this series with a win for the Cubs. Play Chicago Cubs

Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics     
Play:Oakland Athletics   

With the LA Angels win and Texas' loss the AL West goes to the Angels. Texas and Oakland are now just finishing out the schedule and battling for second place bragging rights. Lok for Oakland's Dallas Braden to continue to pitch well in September. Play Oakland

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Jeff Scott Sports 

2 UNIT PLAY

North Carolina/ Rutgers Over 46

The Over is 15-7-1 in Tar Heels last 23 road games, while the Over is 9-1 in Scarlet Knights last 10 games following a bye week and  7-1-1 in Scarlet Knights last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Last year Rutgers offense put up 33 ppg and with 7 starters back this year they figure to approach that number again, even with the loss of Ray Rice. The Offense, though, sputtered in the opening game with just 7 points, but a closer look shows that they did move the ball as they had 369 total yards of offense, including 263 yards through the air from QB Mike Teel. Turnovers did them in as they last 24-7.  Expect a big bounce back game from Teel here as he will be taking on a Carolina defense thta allowed McNeese State to put up 391 yards and 27 points. Not really a good sign for a Carolina defense that returns 8 starters. On the other side of the ball, the Carolina offense returns 10 starters and they put up 35 points and 384 yards of offense in the opener. They should find enough holes in a rutgers defesne that allowed Fresno State to put up 24 points and 422 yards of offense. The last 5 years only 5 of Carolina's 28 road games have scored less than 46 points, with those 28 games averaging 57.2 ppg. In Rugtgers last 10 non-conference home games there has been an average of 47.8 rpg, including an average of 55.8 ppg last year. Both teams have had extra prep time for this one and I see that as a benefit to the offenses. Plenty of points in NJ tonight.

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Jeff Benton

Thursday’s play comes from late-night West Coast baseball action, as we’ll back the Padres as a home underdog against San Francisco.

For one thing, I expect a big letdown from the Giants, who just pulled off a surprising sweep of the Diamondbacks at home, playing the role of spoiler to a T. Now they head south to San Diego to face the last-place Padres, so you have to expect a bit of a comedown.

Also, I like what I’ve seen so far out of Padres rookie right-hander Josh Greer. He went five innings in each of his fist two big-league starts, giving up two runs both times. After taming the Rockies at home (9-4 win) in his first start, Green went to Milwaukee on Friday and went toe-to-toe with CC Sabathia, though San Diego lost 3-2 in 11 innings. Well, if Greer can hold down those two lineups, he should be able to handle the Giants.

Finally, I can’t help but take this kind of plus money against San Francisco’s Matt Cain. No question, Cain has filthy stuff, but the dude cannot win on the road – the Giants are 8-22 in his last 30 starts outside of Frisco – and he cannot beat the Padres – the Giants have lost eight of Cain’s last nine starts against San Diego.

Throw in the fact that Cain comes into this contest off of two poor starts against the Reds and Pirates (nine runs, 18 hits allowed in 11 2/3 innings), and I’ll back San Diego in what essentially probably will amount to a battle of mostly minor-league lineups.

3♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES

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