Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Double Awesome Angle Play!
Play: Miami Ohio
Note: When Miami Ohio takes on Michigan in the Big House early Saturday they will do so with two amazing Awesome Angles working in their favor.
From our powerful database we learn that Game Two favorites off a SU favorite loss are a 'PLAY AGAINST' if they were a bowl team last year facing an opponent either off a loss or win of 20 or less points in which the foe did not cover the spread by more than 12 points as a favorite or dog of 7 or less points in its last game. It becomes a 'play against' because teams in this role are 0-19 ATS since 1980.
Additionally, our database tells us to 'PLAY ON' a team in Game Two if they have 17 or more returning starters and lost SU and ATS in their season opener while losing to the spread by 9 or more points in that game versus an opponent off a loss of 3 or more points. These teams are 17-0 ATS since 1990.
With Miami picked to win the MAC and Michigan still adjusting to Rich Rodriguez's new spread offense, we'll grab the generous points with the RedHawks here today.
We recommend a 5-unit play on Miami, Ohio
Re: Saturday Service Plays
50 DIME: UTAH
15 DIME: FLORIDA
10 DIME: BUFFALO
Under most circumstances, I would be going AGAINST Utah this week, as this would ordinarily be a prime letdown for the Utes after last Saturday’s big win over Michigan in the Big House. Not the case this week, not with UNLV coming to Salt Lake City. Why? Because last year Utah suffered its worst beatdown of the season – it’s worst in probably a decade – in Las Vegas, when the pathetic Rebels (who only won two games all year) shocked the Utes 27-0 as a seven-point home underdog.
As if the indignity of committing four turnovers and getting shutout for the first time since 1993 – by one of the worst programs in Division I-A – wasn’t bad enough, Utah’s manhood was challenged by UNLV coach Mike Sanford in the days after the game. Sanford, who was Utah’s offensive coordinator before taking over the Rebels, said to local media in Las Vegas that when he reviewed the game tape, “there’s no doubt in my mind” that the Utes were afraid to tackle UNLV’s 240-pound running back Frank “The Tank” Summers, who rushed for 190 yards on 29 carries in the victory. And Summers dittoed those comments.
Not surprisingly, Sanford has spent a good portion of this week claiming his comments were taken out of context. True or not, you know that Utes coach Kyle Whittingham – who was Utah’s D-coordinator when Sanford was the O-coordinator – has reminded his players of Sanford’s slight. Not that the players need much motivation after being on the receiving end of a 27-0 bitch-slap. And yes, most of the key players on this year’s Utes team were involved in that massacre – and Summers is back, too.
Now, I know this is a huge impost to lay, but believe me, in addition to motivation, Utah’s got the means to cover the number. As mentioned, they have a ton of talent back, and the defense played out of its mind at Michigan last week, holding the Wolverines to 203 total yards, including 36 rushing yards on 25 carries. And although Utah’s running game looked stuck in the mud, QB Brian Johnson was terrific (21 of 33, 305 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Besides, Michigan’s defense is miles better – bigger, stronger, faster – than UNLV’s, so expect much better results from the running game.
Finally, just look at where these programs are right now. After last week’s completely uninspiring 27-17 home win over god-awful Utah State as a 12½-point favorite, UNLV is now 7-29 in three-plus seasons under Sanford. In between last year’s upset of Utah and last week’s win over Utah State, UNLV lost eight straight games, going 2-6 ATS. In fact, after last week’s non-cover vs. Utah State, the Rebels enter this one on a five-game ATS slide, going 0-3 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog in the process. Meanwhile, Utah cracked the Top 25 this week and the team is 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS since the middle of the 2006 season – a streak that started with a 45-23 home rout of UNLV in October 2006 – including 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS since losing to UNLV last year.
Furthermore, the Utes are 6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite during this 19-game stretch and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at home, while the Rebels are mired in a 3-14 ATS slump on the road. Also, prior to last year’s loss to the Rebels, Utah had won 11 straight games in this rivalry dating to 1979, including the last two at home by a combined score of 108-51! And trust me, in none of those 11 wins were the Utes as motivated to kick some ass as they’re going to be tonight!
Lay the lumber, folks … this one’s gonna get UGLY!
First off, you saw how the SEC bitch-slapped the ACC last week, right? Alabama – a middle-of-the-road SEC team – clobbered Clemson, which entered the season as the favorite to win the ACC. And that was after South Carolina blanked North Carolina State 34-0. Those weren’t the only ACC schools to get punked in Week 1, either. Virginia (playing at home!) lost 52-7 to USC, while Virginia Tech fell to Conference USA’s East Carolina 27-22 as a double-digit favorite. Even Maryland struggled to beat I-AA Delaware at home, prevailing only 14-7.
Well, the ACC better get ready for another beatdown, as Miami doesn’t stand a chance of competing with against fifth-ranked Florida, which went through the motions against Hawaii last week … and still won 56-10 as a 34½-point chalk. And when I say “went through the motions,” QB Tim Tebow had just 174 total yards and one touchdown (passing) … and the Gators still rolled by six touchdowns!
Now, I’m sure Miami has more talent on its roster than Hawaii. But the Hurricanes also have a redshirt freshman at quarterback who has just one game under his belt (last week’s rout of Charleston Southern). Nothing like playing your first collegiate road game in the swamp … especially with only two returning offensive linemen in front of him … and especially when facing one of the top defenses in the land!
Bottom line: The last time Miami went on the road to face a top-tier team, it was exactly a year ago … and the Canes got spanked 51-13 at Oklahoma. And Oklahoma wasn’t an in-state rival like Florida, which just happens to be looking to snap a six-game losing skid to Miami that dates to 1986! Think the Gators don’t want to end that drought by making a big statement today and claiming state supremacy? Just ask Florida State, which lost 41-14 to Tebow and Florida last season. Finally consider this: Miami is 12-24 ATS in its last 36 games, including 5-10 ATS on the road, and the Hurricanes have failed to cover in their last five non-conference road games. Meanwhile, Florida is now 7-1 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. LOVE the Gators tonight!
So let me get this straight: Pittsburgh went off as a two-touchdown home favorite last week against Bowling Green, jumped out to a quick two-touchdown lead, and lost outright 27-17, committing four turnovers in the process … and now the Panthers are laying double digits again? Against another Mid-American Conference opponent, one that’s improving and completely under-the-radar? One that throttled UTEP 42-17 as a three-point home favorite last week?
Uh, I don’t get it. Of course, I didn’t get all the preseason hype surrounding Pitt to begin with. Yeah, they stunned West Virginia in the annual Backyard Brawl season finale last year. But that’s a HUGE rivalry game. Also, all the pressure was on West Virginia in that game, as the Mountaineers needed a win to get a berth in the BCS Championship Game. So instead of focusing on one upset victory, let’s instead focus on the fact that Pitt is 16-20 since Dave Wannstedt took over as coach without a single winning season in three years!
As for Buffalo, this team is on the come, going from 2-10 in 2006 to 5-7 last year. And the Bulls look particularly improved on defense; after yielding 28 points and more than 400 yards per game last year, they came out of the gate and limited UTEP to just 266 yards (67 rushing) and 16 first downs. Also, QB Drew Willy, who threw four TD passes last week, has thrown 251 passes without an interception (the longest such steak in the country). Throw in the fact that Buffalo is on a 21-12-1 ATS roll, including 9-5 ATS as a ‘dog since 2006, while the Panthers are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games, including 1-7 ATS as a favorite, and I’ll gladly take the points here.