Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

Texas Tech @ Nevada
PICK: Over 67

Week 1 is always the lowest scoring week of the college football season, with offenses needing a bit of work against ‘real’ defenses before they can get in to any kind of a rhythm. Historically, the biggest increase from scoring from week to week occurs between the first and second week of the season. For example, in 2007, scoring increased by more than eight points per game from Week 1 to Week 2, while Overs cashed at a 67% clip. There’s no shame in looking for solid Over’s to bet this week.

Texas Tech put up 639 yards of offense in their opener last week, scoring 49 points, yet we’re getting quotes like these from the Red Raiders. Head coach Mike Leach: “We are a spotty team. I don't think that we played what I consider well more than three series in a row on either side of the ball.” Third year quarterback starter Graham Harrell: “That was a pretty sloppy game and offensively we were pretty sloppy. We've got a long ways to go and a lot of room to get better.” I expect a focused, well executed performance from an offense that scored 41 points per game last year, facing a slower, undersized Nevada defense that struggles to stop high octane attacks.

But don’t sell the Wolfpack’s offense short either. Head coach Chris Ault has found the perfect quarterback to run his pistol offense in sophomore Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Freshman of the Year last season. Eight starters return from an offense that scored 33 points per game last year; six points higher than that at home. Expect a wild shootout in Reno on Saturday Night, sending this game flying Over the total.Take the Over.

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Sports Insights

BYU vs Washington

BYU has come into this season shooting to become last season's Hawaii, the team from a non-BCS conference to receive a BCS bowl bid. The Cougars have a history of high-powered offenses, and it looks no different this season. The public LOVES offense, and they tend to follow that when they bet. High-scoring offenses also tend to turn the ball over, as the Cougars did last week by coughing up five fumbles. BYU had a good defense last season, but lost eight starters from that unit. There's still a question how the new starters will perform after allowing some big plays last week against Northern Iowa.

Washington is coming off a road loss to No. 18 Oregon, and the Huskies' Tyrone Willingham is on the hot seat in his fourth season. Willingham does have a special talent in QB Jake Locker, who passed for 2,062 yards and ran for another 986 in 2007. The Huskies defense has experience and a new coordinator in Ed Donatell, who spent 13 seasons as a coordinator in the NFL.

The Cougars are receiving 60% of wagers at Sports Insights' contributing sportsbooks, but the line has moved in the opposite direction you would expect. BYU opened at Pinnacle as 10-point favorites, but are currently at -8.5. A 1.5 point move against that percentage shows me that the Sharps are backing Washington. I'm going to follow the Smart Money, especially since there are still some places offering Washington +9.5 (Sports Interaction).

Washington +9.5


Texas A&M vs New Mexico

Texas A&M opened the Mike Sherman era with a home loss to Arkansas State, not a good way to endear yourself to the Aggies' 12th Man. Sherman is switching to a pro-style offense at A&M, but it doesn't look like he has the right fit of players for that system. Senior QB Stephen McGee is more of a dual-threat player, as he was the Big 12's top rushing quarterback last season with 899 yards. Sherman also moved bruising RB Jorvorskie Lane to fullback, and made Mike Goodson the featured back. The Aggies didn't have a strong defense last season, and lost their top-2 defensive players heading into 2008.

New Mexico won its first bowl game since 1961 last season with a 23-0 defeat of Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos return key talent on offense including two-time first-team all-conference running back Rodney Ferguson. He is joined in the backfield by fellow RB Paul Baker (over 200 yards total offense in New Mexico Bowl). New Mexico also returns a strong secondary from last season, which could give fits to A&M's McGee.

The Aggies are receiving 76% of the betting public's support playing on the road, but they have moved from -3 favorites at Pinnacle to -2.5. Yet again, I'm following the Sharps and taking the home dog. Much like last week's Michigan game, beware of a coach implementing a new system without the right players in place to run it.

New Mexico +2.5


Mississippi vs Wake Forest

Wake Forest went on the road and crushed Big 12 cellar dweller Baylor 41-13 in week 1. Junior Riley Skinner begins his third season as the Demon Deacons starting QB. Skinner was the most accurate passer in the NCAA last season with a 72-percent completion rate, but Wake lost four starters along its offensive line. The Deacs also return the bulk of a talented defense.

In Houston Nutt's debut Mississippi started out the year with a big win against Memphis. It seems Nutt has found a decent option in Junior WR Dexter McCluster to play the Darren McFadden position of his "Wildcat" offense that he brought over from Arkansas. Texas transfer QB Jevan Snead looked good in his first action for Ole Miss, and the Rebels' unpredictable offense can confuse even the most experienced defenses. With DT Peria Jerry and DE Greg Hardy, the Rebels also feature the SEC's most talented defensive line duo, and a potential stud LB in Allen Walker.

The Deacs are receiving two-thirds of public wagers after receiving extra media attention for being the only ACC team to actually look good in week 1. Even with that public support, the line has moved a half-point in their favor. Could that be a sign of smart money I see? Absolutely. When two teams this talented square off, anything can happen, and we're following the Sharps in thinking this is a close one. I'll take Ole Miss and the points.

Mississippi +7.5

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Wunderdog

Connectuct at Temple
Pick: Temple +7

Sometimes it is good to have a short memory while other times (like this one) it is good to remember the past. The Owls won five games last year, but were only credited with four. They had one stolen when a late TD was ruled out of bounds by the refs, while replays clearly showed otherwise. The Owls return all 22 starters this season, all with a fresh memory of that game. Revenge is a sweet motive! Add to that the fact that this team was told a few years ago that they were no longer wanted in the Big East. The Owls finally have the talent to make a statement about those painful memories. Connecticut was the luckiest team in the Big East last season, getting wins vs. Temple and Louisville that were aided by botched calls. They also got a weather break against South Florida and had a huge surplus in turnovers and relatively few injuries. The result? They finished tied for first in the Big last despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards per game! They looked absolutely horrible against a hapless Hofstra team last week, and won because their talent was just extreme vs the competition. They don't enjoy that edge here, and this one is on the road where the Huskies are just 5-14 in their last 19. The Owls are motivated and pumped up here and we like them a lot to get the cover.

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FairWay Jay

Penn St. +15.0

Oregon State makes the long, ‘rough’ travel to Happy Valley and the Beavers figure to be swimming up stream here. A majority of the SU and ATS victories in week 1 were by teams that dominated at the point of attack and had success in the running game. Oregon State figures to struggle against the staunch Penn State defense after managing just 86 rushing yards last week versus an inferior Stanford team. Beavers QB Lyle Moevao will be pressured throughout and may be forced to throw over 40 times again (54 passes last week). Oregon State made numerous mistakes and turnovers while also playing undisciplined with 12 penalties. Despite solid overall yardage and expected improvement in week 2, Oregon State will find moving the ball much more difficult against Penn State’s dominating defensive front...although must note the suspension of DE Evans and DT Koroma. Meanwhile, Penn State romped 66-10 over an inferior foe last week led by a deep group of running backs and a veteran offensive line that paved the way for over 330 rushing yards. The Oregon State defense allowed Stanford to run for 210 yards and their defense is very thin on experience and features no returning starter along the defensive line. Another 3+ touchdown victory looks probable for Jo Pa and Penn State

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Bryan Leonard

Central Michigan @ Georgia
PICK: Over 56.5

The Chippewas of Central Michigan have consistently been the best team in the MAC since Dan LeFevour took his first snap. He entered his freshman year as the third string signal caller only to see both his fellow quarterbacks go down with injuries in the season opener. Since that time he has stepped in and never missed a beat as he has put himself on the NFL radar. Central scored 43 total points in three road games last year vs BCS schools Kansas, Purdue and Clemson. So with the signal caller now in his junior year we can see the Chippewas reaching at least 14 here. The problem for Central Michigan in those games was that they played a matador defense. They let Kansas score 52, Purdue reach 45 and Clemson lit them up for 70 points. With Georgia being loaded this year and with Matthew Stafford at the top of the NFL future quarterback lists we can see the Bulldogs pouring it on. Especially when you consider that in beating Georgia Southern handily last week they dropped out of the number one slot in the polls. We fully expect coach Richt and the Bulldogs to run up the score here as they try to influence the pollsters with an impressive victory.

PLAY OVER

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Tony George

Mississippi vs Wake Forest
Play: Ol Miss +8

Houston Nutt takes his road show to Ole Miss, after having vast success at Arkansas and winning some big games down there, before getting ran out of town on a railcar by boosters for reasons which still baffle me.  None the less, the Rebels were impressive as they rolled a decent Memphis team last week and WR McCluster  is the "real deal" as he tore up the Tiger secondary and I think he will keep Wake Forests defense on edge all day.  Ol Miss has some balance and good sized lineman up front as well on offense.  Yes the defense is a a question mark, but on offense they will trade punches in this match up.

Not impressed yet with Wake who drubbed Big 12 bottom feeder Baylor last week, which is no surprise, and while QB Skinner is back in form, I like QB Snead for Ole Miss to trade punches in a high scoring game here.  Both quarterbacks in this game are playmakers and way above average in talent. A big step up in class for #20 Wake, against an SEC team who has renewed confidence and a coach willing to take some big chances in big games, and for one reason or another, Houston Nutt seems to get the most out of his players and they overachieve, which in fact I think Ol Miss makes this a close one on the road.

This game opened at Wake -10 and has dropped all week, I have even seen some -7.5 numbers coming in Friday, so I am not alone in thinking this game is tighter than the oddsmakers originally thought.

Play Ol Miss

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tony Karpinski

San Diego State vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -21.5
     
A lot of early pressure in Charlie Weis to make something positive happen, and for one of the rare times in his tenure at South Bend he has the coaching advantage over Chuck Long, who appears to be over-matched. SD ST is awful and lost last week to a D-2 school. ND finally has some offensive weapons and coming off a 3 win season didn't sit well with Charlie (buffet boy) Weis. They need to win this year and open the season with a BLOWOUT WIN. NOTRE DAME WINS 45-14 

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Ross Benjamin

BYU @ Washington 
Pick: BYU –9.0

If BYU is serious about their BCS bowl aspirations this game will be a major hurdle to get there. In spite of the Huskies going through tough times in recent years this is only 1 of the 2 games on their schedule versus a BCS Conference team. I look for BYU to be totally focused and come out with a superlative effort. In spite of how elusive and good a runner that Washington quarterback Jake Locker is the Cougar defense will not allow 1 guy to beat them.

Any non-conference home underdog of 14.0 or less that is off a conference away SU and ATS loss by 22 points or more as an underdog of 4.5 or better, and they have won 3 or more of their last 22 games overall is 0-16 SU and ATS. The favorite has won those 16 games by an average of 23.6 points per game. Play on BYU minus the points.

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Tom Stryker
   
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

There’s nothing worse than getting embarrassed in your season opener.  After putting in all the blood, sweat and tears in August, laying an egg in the first game of the season really hurts.

Maybe it was a lack of preparation.  Or, like Clemson last week,  one team was simply outcoached.  Regardless of the situation, the fact remains that you are resting at 0-1 SU and know that a second blemish would be the absolute worst case scenario.

When it comes to handicapping college football, it is imperative that you isolate those teams that take the field “with a definite reason to play”.  Motivation is huge at this level and good ‘cappers know when to use it to their advantage.  This is one time when a little extra energy goes a long way.  Take a look.

Since 1980, PLAY ON any game two college football favorite priced at -9’ or more provided they lost straight up as a favorite of -7 or more in their season opener.

28 Year ATS Record = 14-5 ATS for 73.6 percent.

This Week’s Play PITTSBURGH

As you can see, those game two teams that got rocked in game one as a touchdown favorite or more bounce back nicely when favored by -9’ or more in their next contest.  Amazingly, the 19 teams in that set all won the game too by an average of 26.6 points per game!

There is one tightener to this Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde system that really makes it pop.  With out 14-5 ATS record in hand, we can improve this situation to a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS for 100 percent provided our “play on” team is matched up against an opponent that is NOT off a straight up loss.  (That means our “play against” side enters off a straight up win or this is their season opener.)  Please note:  Those seven wins have come by an average of 33.0 points per game!

Last Saturday, Pittsburgh jumped out to an early lead against Bowling Green but couldn’t close.  The Falcons upset the Panthers 27-17.  Off that loss and with the support of this rare system in play, Dave Wannstedt will have his troops ready to play.  Good luck with Pittsburgh on Saturday!

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dr. Bob

2* Florida
2* Minnesota

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Lee Kostroski

Mississippi @ Wake Forest
PICK: Mississippi +8

In this SEC vs. ACC showdown we will side with the SEC and Mississippi much the same way we took South Carolina in the opener over Nc State. This isn’t basketball season boys! Lets face it the ACC is really a weak football conference right now and other conferences are going to take advantage of that fact.

In this match up we have a Wake Forest team that should challenge for the Conference Championship but winning within the conference is a different story than winning out of it (just ask Clemson). Wake is coming off a road win over Baylor in which they put up 376 total yards of offense while holding the Bears to just 242 total yards. The Deacons big win is a little misleading though as they benefited from a 98-yard punt return and a fumble return for a touchdown. Baylor is hardly a juggernaut in the Big 12 so we have to say we’re not too impressed with the ‘W’.

Ole’Miss is now under the leadership of Houston Nutt and he already has this team heading in the right direction. The Rebels have a strong-armed QB Snead (a transfer from Texas) running the offense who should have no problems trading points with Wake and their talented QB Skinner in this game. Mississippi is coming off a solid win over Memphis 41-24 in which they rushed for 216 yards and passed for another 222. WR McCluster had 125 receiving yards against Memphis and he now gives the Rebels a playmaker on the outside to go along with a talented, but young backfield.

When playing on or against Wake Forest we typically look at the underdog first and foremost. In fact, the Deacs are just 12-24-1 ATS their last 37 as a chalk, which includes exactly zero covers in their last 10 at home when playing out of conference. When favored by a full touchdown or more Wake is just 2-12-1 ATS their last 15. On the flip side the Bulldogs have a respectable 10-5 ATS run going as an underdog.

When all is said and done, everything points towards a cover by the better team here with Mississippi, maybe even the outright win.

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GREG SHAKER

NLouisiana Tech Bulldogs at Kansas Jayhawks
Play: Kansas -20 -110

I don't know which way this line will go, but my best educated guess is that it will go upward when it is all said and done. For now it has dropped 1/2 point. That is why I am getting on it now and there is good reason to believe that we will see a large pointspread win by the Jayhawks. I am not one to lay very many large spreads but I certainly will here. Everything went right for La Tech in their home opener with the visiting Bulldogs of Miss State as they failed miserably in that contest. Miss State threw 3 Int's, they has numerous offensive mishaps, not caused by La Tech's D. La Tech was outgained in this game, and they managed just 14 of 40 completions with 2 Int's. They also ran the ball for only about 3 yards per rush. Those same numbers are not going to get them anywhere as they travel to Lawrence Kansas to play a Jayhawk team that was 8th overall in the country on offense production and 12th overall on D last year. This team has 15 starters returning, including very talented QB Todd Reesing. They were an amazing 11-1 verses the spread last year, making them a bettor's dream. With almost the entire D back, I can't see the visiting Bulldogs having much success moving the ball and putting points on the board. I can see Kansas gathering up 40+ points. I think that we will see that. There is great optimism in Ruston Louisiana about the their team. Even former Bulldog Terry Bradshaw is pumped about their chances this year. But, they are coming off one of their largest wins ever, and they are traveling to a venue that could spell disaster. The Jayhawks punished the poor squads last year at home. Baylor caught a 58-10 whooping. Nebraska got blown clean out of the stadium 76-39. Iowa State lost 45-7. Fla Int lost 55-3. Toledo, Southeastern La, and Central Michigan lost by combined scores of 159-20. BINGO!! Let's enjoy this rout.

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Gold Sheet Phone Plays

Top...E Car

Reg...Fla--Houston--Kan--MdTnSt

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ATS Consultants

Texas Tech (-10) over Nevada

Look for the Red Raiders behind Heisman hopeful QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree to explode offensively. Nevada has a decent offense but the defense will not be up to stopping the high powered Texas Tech attack.


Sharp Money Moves

Georgia (-24) over C. Michigan
Washington (+9) over BYU
Washington St. (+13') over California

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The Gold Medal Club

Stanford @ Arizona State
PLAY ARIZONA STATE -14

Seems like a lot of chalk, it is, but the Clubs power ranks have this priced as a bargain.First lets take note Arizona State coach has been money coming off A DD win going 34-13 to the number. In there opener the Sun Devils looked in fine form with QB Carpenter throwing for 388 yards in a 30-13 win over N.Arizona.On the flip side, Stanford won ugly as 2.5 dogs taking down Oregon State, despite being badly out gained, and allowed an amazing 404 yards, through the air. Stanford maybe playing with double revenge losing to the Sun Devils @home last season 41-3 and the year before a 58-3 pounding, but Carpenter is going to have a field day against this secondary. We take note the home team is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings, Stanford is 3-7 in this price range while Arizona State is a perfect 7-0 in this price range during the last 3 years.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Nelly

Miami, OH + over Michigan

It was not the upset that it would be in most seasons but Michigan did not look good in a home loss to Utah to start the Rodriguez era. The final margin was just two points but the Wolverines were badly out-gained and if not for a few Utah miscues the result would have been an embarrassing lopsided loss.

Miami also started the season poorly with turnovers and special team mistakes digging a hole early. Both teams should have a bit more success moving the ball this week and the experience of Miami heading into the big stage at Michigan might allow for a closer game than the spread suggests. Michigan should be avoided until more progress on offense is shown and the Wolverines have Notre Dame on deck which could mean a flat spot in this game sandwiched in between more marquee match-ups.

The Wolverines also fall into a very negative system for us, as game 2 home favorites coming off S/U home losses are just 3-11 since 2001. Take the points with Miami as the Redhawks have a lot to prove after getting blown out at home last week.

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Great Lakes Sports

Minnesota at Bowling Green
Play: Bowling Green -5.5

The Bowling Green Falcons return eight starters back on offense, and nine starters back this season from a team that went 8-5 last season, and they have one five out of there last six games, and are on a roll including an impressive win 27-17 at Pittsburgh against the Panthers. The Minnesota Golden Gophers are coming off a last minute win at home against lowly Northern Illinois 31-27 which they were lucky to come out for the win as Minnesota converted a fourth and one with about twenty seconds left to pick up the first down, and then a play later scored the game winning touch down. The Falcons are 3-1ATS vs Big 10 opponents the last three years, and are 52-39ATS when playing on Saturday’s since 1992 while the Minnesota Golden Gophers has struggled against the Mac as they are a terrible 1-3ATS vs Mac Opponents the last three years, and are a dismal 2-6ATS when playing in the month of September the last three years. We here at Great Lakes Sports look for the Bowling Green Falcons to take advantage of the week Minnesota’s defense, and come out with their second win of the season as they will cash in for the home ATS win & cover tonight.

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Cajun-Sports

1 STAR SELECTION

ARIZONA -23 over Toledo

Off an offensive explosion in their opener, the Wildcats look to blow up the Rockets in non-conference collision in Tucson.

This will be Toledo’s first game of the season, a tough road opener in the desert against a Pac-10 foe. Arizona rolled to a 70-0 win over Idaho last weekend, with the 70 points being the most the Wildcats have scored in 87 years. Last season, they finished under .500 for the seventh time in the last eight years, but big things are expected for Arizona this season.

Arizona won the only previous meeting with Toledo back in 1985.

Aaron Opelt is back at quarterback for Toledo after a subpar season. He completed just 58% of his passes and averaged 195 ypg, while tallying 12 TDs and seven INTs last year, and now will be without the team’s leading rusher in the backfield. The Rockets defense was simply horrible last year, giving up more than 39 ppg and were gashed for 215 ypg on the ground.

The Wildcats have certainly not been considered an offensive juggernaut in recent seasons, but that could be about to change. QB Willie Tuitama was very efficient last week, completing 17-of-21 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns. It was a great sign for Wildcats fans, in that Tuitama is working in his second year in Sonny Dykes’ offensive scheme. Tuitama picked up the system rather quickly last year, completing 62% of his passes for 3,683 yards and 28 TDs, and even more great things are expected of him this year.

The Arizona defense was obviously dominant in last week's rout, allowing the Vandals only 112 total yards and seven first downs. And they repeatedly set the table for the offense by coming away with four interceptions, which led to four touchdowns.

The Wildcats should be ready to pounce again here at home, as the Rockets have completely fizzled out in non-conference road games vs. opponents not off 2 SU & ATS losses, going 0-9 SU (-28.9 ppg) and 0-9 (-19.2 ppg).

Arizona has not been a solid home favorite, but this is changing with the offense taking flight. Last week was a sign of things to come, as an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM demonstrates. It states:

In Game 2, play ON a home favorite of 19½-43 points off a home SU win scoring 57+ points.

Since at least 1980, these system has been perfect, going 8-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg! We also note that teams playing their second game of the season are 4-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) off a SU win and taking on a MAC foe playing its first game of the season.

It looks like a rough start for the Rockets as the ‘Cats go wild once again for a SU & ATS victory.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ARIZONA 44 TOLEDO 17

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Scott Ferrall

Syracuse -4.5 to Akron--they've got to win a game at the Dome for once, don't they ?

Northwestern -6.5 at Duke--Wildcats by a TD over the Devils

Georgia Tech +7 from Boston College--they pull it off at Chesnut Hill

Minnesota +5.5 from Bowling Green-twice in a row ? I don't think so

Southern Mississippi +19 from Auburn--Tigers think this one will be easy--they're wrong

Tulane +30 from Alabama--let down time for the Tide against the Wave after ripping Clemson

San Jose State +26 from Nebraska--The Cornhuskers can't cover giant spreads yet because they aren't as good as last week's easy one

OHIO +35 from Ohio St--The Buckeyes won't blow them out--they'll just win easily and look for the backdoor cover

WISCONSIN -20.5 to Marshall--Badgers get things going here in Mad-Town even though they didn't cover last week

Central Michigan +23.5 from Georgia--UPSET SPECIAL WITH THE POINTS--Central Mich was tough as shit last yr

Oreg St +16.5 from Penn St--I don't think that PSU is that good and the Beavs should cover at least--even in Happy Valley--they won't leave happy, but hopefully they make you money

Air Force +3 from Wyoming--go light on this game--I don't trust either one of them

TAKE BYU -10 OVER WASHINGTON-- COUGS ARE FOR REAL AND WASHINGTON SUCKS

San Diego St +22 from Notre Dame--I'm not sure the Irish can even score 22 points

Texas A&M -3 to New Mexico--Aggies get this one done on the road

Oklahoma St -15 to Houston--Cowboys in Stillwater put on a show for the folks

Iowa St -7.5 to Kent--Cyclones in Ames by 8 or 9

Wake Forest -8 to Ole'Miss--the Deacons are at home and they are good

Washington St +13.5 from Cal--Bears take this one for granted and get burned

Northern Illinois +6 from Western Michigan

South Florida -14 to Central Florida--SF is better, but both are coming up big-time these days

UCONN -7 to Temple--Huskies have a program now and can win this game easily in Philly

Kansas -21 to Louisiana Tech--Jayhawks light it up in Lawrence

Rice +3.5 from Memphis

Toledo +22.5 from Arizona--The Cats just aren't good enough to cover that much lumber

UTEP +26.5 from Texas--Mike Price has his chance to get some press--cover at least you bitches !

Iowa -27 to Florida International--The Hawkeyes have to blast their ass in Iowa City

Arkansas -12.5 to La-Monroe--the Razorbacks should win by 2 TD's

TULSA -21.5 to North Texas

Middle Tennessee +14 from Maryland--Terps screw this one up on the road


MLB

Minnesota -135 over Detroit--Baker over Verlander, who gets lit every time out

Gavin Floyd +105 and the ChiSox over the Angels and Lackey in the Windy

Marcum +125 and the Jays knock out the Rays (Shields)

Matt Cain -120 over Maholm and the Pirates in the Bay

Houston EVEN ODDS with Oswalt over Francis in the Mile High City

Wellemeyer and Cards -145 over the Marlins at Busch 2

Cubs -150 over the Reds-Marquis over Cueto

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Marc Lawrence

5* Penn State
4* Auburn
3* Miami-Ohio


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