Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

PHIL STEELE

KC/N.ENGLAND under 44.5(totals play of week)

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PRO INFO SPORTS

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: UNDER 41

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units) 

The Lions open the 2008 campaign in Atlanta as 3 point road favorites. This is a role they have certainly struggled with in the past, posting a record of 0-7 both SU and ATS since 1997. Lions coach Marinelli is also 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS on the road.

Atlanta will start 1st Round Draft Choice QB Matt Ryan from Boston College . A new coach and new QB mean growing pains and an offense that will struggle to start the season. Although the Falcon defense was able to hold opponents to only 12 points per game during the preseason which shows they do have the desire to put last years fiasco behind them and concentrate on the job at hand.

We believe the combination of all these factors will lead to a low scoring affair in the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon. We also note that these two teams have combined for a 7-1 Under record in Game One of the season over the last four years.

Technical support for our selection comes from systems that tell us to Play Under on NFL Week One favorites of 4 points or less. This system has been perfect posting a record of 15-0 Under the last 15 qualifying contests. Week One dome games have also produced a perfect Under record going 9-0 Under the last nine times.

A Detroit team that struggles on the road and a "new" Falcons team along with strong technical support combine for a nice opening week 2* Under Selection winner in the Lions / Falcons match up.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Detroit / Atlanta UNDER 41

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Old Ball Coach Picks

Carolina +9
New Orleans -3.5

3-0 Saturday
Wins on Temple +6.5
Rice +3
Mississippi +7

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Sports Gambling Hotline

NY Jets at MIAMI +3 

Of course this game now has serious interest for the nation as Brett Favre is running the show for New York, while the exiled Chad Pennington gets a crack at his former team.

We will take the points with the host in this spot, as we liked what we saw from Miami in the preseason, and we feel they are out to make a statement in this game.

Reports out of the south Florida area are that the Fly-boys are struggling with the heat, and humidity, and that certainly could play a huge factor come the latter stages in this game.

All of the series numbers point in New York's favor, as the Jets have won the last 4 meetings outright, and are on a 8-0-1 spread run the last 9 times these division rivals have met. Obviously, Pennington was a big part of New York's dominance over Miami. Today, the shoe is on the other foot, and we will glady go against Brett Favre in his Jets debut.

Play on Miami.

2♦ MIAMI

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Karl Garrett

Kansas City +16 at NEW ENGLAND 

The G-Man thinks the number on this game is absolutely ludicrous!

How can a New England team that finished the preseason at 0-4 - and looked very bad in doing so - be favored by this much?

Tom Brady didn't play a down in the preseason, and chances he is 100% seem very unlikely to me. Sure the Patriots own a 19-game regular season win streak, but the impost has been a little lofty on them down the stretch, as New England has covered just once in their last 9 games.

Kansas City went just 4-12 a season ago, but the Chiefs were able to cover in 6 of their 8 road games a season ago.

It's not one of Week One's marquee games, but too many question marks surround this New England team for me to say with certainty that they are going to cover this hefty impost.

Would rather side with the huge dog in the first game of the year.

Take Kansas City.

1♦ KANSAS CITY

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

Lions minus the points at Atlanta.

First off, Matt Ryan may prove to be a good NFL quarterback over time for the Falcons, but are you willing to trust him to succeed in his very first start behind a below-average offensive line? I’m not. I mean, he’s probably got more raw talent than Joey Harrington and Chris Redman – Atlanta’s two QBs last year – but at least those two had experience facing NFL defenses, and you saw how that turned out.

Now, I do like the Falcons’ upgrade at RB with Michael Turner joining Jerrious Norwood. But really, how much room is either of those guys going to have to run when opposing defenses put eight or nine in the box and dare Ryan to beat them? Even Detroit is smart enough to employ that tactic!

Speaking of the Lions, yeah, they’ve been among the biggest underachievers in football over the past decade. But at least they showed some signs of life last year, starting out 6-2 before sputtering to a 7-9 finish. And Detroit beat the weak teams on its schedule, including the Raiders, Vikings, Bears (twice), Broncos and Chiefs. And while I try not to put a whole lot of emphasis on the preseason, I think it is pertinent to point out that the Lions were the only team to finish August with a perfect record. And they looked good on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 80-32. Not only were the 32 points allowed the fewest in the league, but no other squad gave up fewer than 41. Take that however you want it, but if the defense played that well, why can’t it dominate against a rookie quarterback leading one of the weakest offenses in the league?

Throw in the fact that the Lions have a ton of weapons on offense, led by veteran QB Kitna, and they’ve cashed in five straight season-openers, and I’ll back the road chalk with confidence.

5♦ DETROIT LIONS

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Norm Hitzges

Triple Play

Philadelphia -7.5 vs St. Louis

Double Plays

Cincinnati -1.5 vs Baltimore
Dallas -5.5 vs Cleveland
San Francisco/Arizona Under 42
Jacksonville/Tennessee Under 36.5

Single Plays

Tennessee +3 vs Jacksonville
Indianapolis -9.5 vs Chicago
Carolina +9 vs San Diego
Buffalo -1 vs Seattle
Dallas/Cleveland Under 49
Buffalo/Seattle Over 38.5
Detroit/Atlanta Under 41

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Tampa Bay over New Orleans

When the Bucs battle the Saints in New Orleans in opening week action on today's NFL card they'll do so knowing head coach John Gruden has won his first division game of the season 7 out of 8 times this decade. In addition, Tampa improved both their their offensive and defensive averages last season while the Saints declined both offensively and defensively. Grab the points in this upset maker as New Orleans dips to 1-13 ATS as a division home favorite here today.

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Jimmy The Moose

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last season many expected the Saints to win the division and be serious Super Bowl contenders. Neither happened and the Saints missed out on the playoffs. The NFC South division winners were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and today they come into New Orleans as a dog and expected to lose out to the Saints again in the division race. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. Tampa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. The Saints are talented on offense but the D is a mystery going into week 1. The Saints are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games. New Orleans is 17-36-2 in their last 55 home games. The Saints are 2-4 SU 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the Bucs. Tampa is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to New Orleans. Play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Tennessee Titans +3

The Tennessee Titans are an under-the-radar-screen, non-public team often undervaled on the betting line.

I believe that's the case again in this matchup with the Titans being three-point home underdogs. The Titans are 13-5-2 (72 percent) against the spread during the past 20 times they've been a 'dog.

Tennessee pounded the Jaguars for a combined 458 yards rushing in two games last season. The Jaguars are now without run-stuffing tackle Marcus Stroud and the Titans have upgraded their rushing attack with the addition of speedy rookie Chris Johnson.

Neither team has much of a passing attack. The Jaguars were hoping newcomer Jerry Porter could be their No. 1 wideout, but he's injured and won't play.

Jacksonville also is banged-up in its offensive line with center Brad Meester out.

It has been a trying and distracting week for the Jaguars. Backup lineman Richard Collier was shot. Team members spent time visiting him in the hospital as he recoveres from gunshot wounds.

This figures to be a tough, in-the-trenches defensive battle with lots of rushing. I respect Jacksonville's running back duo of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor.

However, the combination of key Jacksonville injuries, the distraction of having a team member nearly killed and Tennessee's record as an underdog, puts me on the Titans.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

John Fisher

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots     
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +15   


Gregg Price

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns     
Play: Dallas Cowboys -5.5


Sean Higgs

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns    
Play: Over 49

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Cajun-Sports

Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: 2* Buffalo Bills -1

Seattle travels to the East Coast to begin the 2008 NFL season and they are 1-7 ATS in this situation their last 8. Seattle is also 2-10 ATS their last 12 on the highway overall.

Not only do the Seahawks have to travel across the country they also played two games in five days to wrap up the preseason. Seattle finds themselves in a tough spot to start the new season.

Buffalo made improvements on their defensive front by adding DT Stroud; they also return LB Posluszny and FS Simpson after losing them early in the 07 season. A much improved defensive team to go along with one of the best special team units in the league should make a difference for this Bills team this season.

On offense the Bills have second year QB Trent Edwards to go along with RB Marshawn Lynch who rushed for 1,115 yards last season. Edwards and Lynch became the first rookie QB/RB tandem to have 1,000 yards passing and rushing since the merger in 1970.

Seattle played a weak schedule last season and was exposed in the playoffs by the Packers. The Bills were absent from the playoffs but faced a much tougher schedule and they should be ready to get the win here.

From a technical standpoint we know NFC West teams are 21-41-1 ATS on the road in non-division play over the last three seasons. We also note that the Seahawks are 15-26-1 ATS against the AFC East Division which includes a record of 4-17 ATS as a favorite or underdog of two or less points. Finally we dig a little deeper into Seattle’s struggles when facing this division and we see they are a perfect 0-11 ATS their last 11 in this role.

Finally we have an NFL Super System that says to:

Play ON a non-Saturday team (not a favorite of more than 5 points or underdog of more than 15 points) before a non-Monday game at Jacksonville.
17-0 ATS since 2002

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* BUFFALO BILLS -1

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Larry Ness

CAR +9.5 vs SDC

Norv Turner quieted all his critics, who were 'howling' after his Chargers opened the '07 season 0-3. Marty had basically been dumped after another string of playoff failures but San Diego has much talent as any team in the NFL and a 1-3 start was unacceptable. However, Turner and his team "hung in there" and beginning with a 41-3 win at Denver in Week 5, won 10 of its final 12 regular season games  (10-2 ATS). Then despite injuries to LT, Gates and Rivers, Turner's Chargers did what Marty's couldn't. That is win in the playoffs. San Diego beat the Titans 17-6 in the wild card round, upset the Colts in Indy 28-24 and hung tough all game at New England in the AFC title game, before losing 21-13. The Panthers were expected to compete for the NFC South title but when Delhomme went down in the team's third game, the season was all but over. Delhomme wound up with Tommy John surgery but he's seems to be fine and let's remember he had eight TDs and just one INT (64%) before getting hurt last year. WR Steve Smith is serving a suspension in this game but Fox has this team thinking "run-first" this year. DeAngelo Williams is a talented back and Oregon rookie Jonathan Stewart looks good (Foster is long gone). The OL is totally changed (new players or new positions for old ones) but expected to be good. The Panthers hope to return to the swarming, punishing defense they displayed en route to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season and the NFC championship game in 2005. They were second and third in the league in yards allowed in those two seasons, but have been middle-of-the-pack the last two years. DE Julius Peppers is in his contract year and expect Carolina's defense to be much better in '08. LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a league-best 1,474 yards and 15 TDs in the 2007 regular season but took more than just a little criticism after being limited to just four plays in the playoff loss to New England because of a sprained knee. It didn't help his rep that QB Philip Rivers limped through the postseason with a significantly more damaged knee ligament (had off-season surgery). However, LT is the league's best back and don't expect any "carry over" to this year. TE Gates is still being bothered by an injured toe and center Hardwick will miss with a foot injury. WR Chris Chambers was a great mid-season pickup from Miami and he'll get a full season with the Chargers in '08. The Chargers have plenty of talent on D but somewhat underachieved last year in terms of yards allowed. However, they were No. 1 with 48 takeaways (30 INTs), which made up for it. LB Shawne Merriman has decided to play the season on two injured knee ligaments and fellow LB Cooper is serving a suspension, neither of which is good news. The Chargers were 8-1 SU and ATS at home LY (including the postseason) but Carolina is 23-10-2 as a rod dog under Fox, with the team going 22-5 ATS as a dog in games started by Delhomme. This is a HUGE pointspread and I'm taking the points with the Panthers.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bob Majors

CAR +9.0 vs SDC

Carolina Panthers travel to the San Diego Charges.  Panthers may be taken too lightly here and the Charger defense is hurting with several player suspect in playing.  Caroline is 22-5 ATS last 27 games as underdog with Delhomme in as QB.  Don't be surprise with an outright upset of the Chargers. Take the Panthers

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

New Orleans/ Tampa Bay Under 42.5

The Under is 15-2 in Tampa's first game of the season and 6-1 when they are div road dogs of less than 5, while the Under is 8-1 in New Orleans' game 1 of the season and 11-5 when they are division home favs of 3 or more. A couple of solid systems for this one as well. System 1: Game played in a dome on opening weekend have gone 0-9 Under the last 4 years. System 2: NFC South games played in September are a perfect 0-10 Under if the home team is favored the last 6 years. I realize that the last 5 in this series has gone over the total, but this is the spot for that streak to stop. One thing this Tampa team knows how to do is play defense, as the Bucs come off a season in which they allowed just 17 ppg and then followed that up by allowing just 11.3 ppg in the preseason. Tampa is a team that has to rely on their defense as the offense just isn't that good as they put up just 20 ppg last year and just 19.3 ppg in the preseason. The Saints offense really struggled in 3 of their 4 preseaon games and they scored just 23 points in their final 2 games. Defense has been a sore spot for this team, but they did play much better in the preseason as they allowed 14 or less in 3 of the 4 games.  The Bucs offense is not great so they will look to run and control the clock, so they can keep the ball away from the high powered Saint offense. Both defenses will really step up in this game and keep the score in the lower 30's.


2 UNIT PLAY

Cinncinnati -1 over BALTIMORE

This Ravens team is a mess right now and it all starts at the QB position. Joe Flacco? Are you kidding me? The Ravens offense put up just 17 ppg last year and 12.3 ppg in the preseason and I don't feel that Joe Flacco will be the savior here. A low point of the preseason was in the 3rd game (the game where most starters play a lot more). In that game Baltimore lost to St Louis 24-10 and where outgained by 202 yards on the night. The offense or defense did not play all that well in that game. Carson Palmer is one of the top QB's in the league and he has a ton of weapons to go to. The Bengal Defense was a sore spot last year, but I see them have a big day vs a bad offense today. The Ravens have a rookie caoch, with a rookie QB and neither will get off to a winning start here as Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer find a way to win. Should be close but the Bengals will pull it out in the end.

I ALSO LIKE

New England/ Kansas City Under 44


1 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Houston Over 43

With an OU line of 41-43 in Pittsburgh home games the Over is 8-1 since 2002. Im expecting some high scoring games with Houston this year as the Offense is good, but the defense is bad. Last year Houston games averaged 48 ppg overall and 47.5 ppg on the road. That road trend held true to form in the preseason as their 2 road games averaged 51.5 ppg. Last year the Steelers scored 21 or more points in all but 1 of their home games (including playoffs), as they averaged 25.6 ppg at the Ketchup Bottle. The Steeler offense didn't look that great in the preseason, but I feel they will find this soft Houston defense to their liking. I feel that both teams will get thier share of points and put about 48 points on the board.

I ALSO LIKE

BUFFALO -1 over Seattle

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Rocketman

Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Play:1* Cincinnati -1 1/2

Cincinnati is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Baltimore last 3 years.  Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.  Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.  Ravens are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.  Ravens are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1.  Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.  Ravens are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC.  Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.  Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.  Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bettors World

2* Houston Texans +7 -115 over Pittsburgh Steelers

In with the new and out with the old? Well, perhaps not. But you could say that this is a matchup of a team on the rise against a team that perhaps has peaked. Though we can't expect much of a decline from the Steelers this year. They return 19 of 22 starters from last years team which went 7-1 at home. The Texans on the other hand are in off an 8-8 year and expectations continue to grow. Gary Kubiak enters his 3rd year at the helm and we'd expect his scheme to start kicking in.In this day and age of NFL football, we see teams go from worst to first. Perhaps the fact that the Steelers made virtually no changes during the offseason is enough reason to believe the decline has started. Losing at home in the playoffs to the Jags last year may very well be the game pundits point to as the start of the decline. This weeks game may very well be a continuation.Early season handicapping can be tough. It really comes down to a handicappers ability to size up talent and off season moves. Not always an easy task. However, it's not the only tool available to bettors. The ability to read and interpret betting patterns is huge. In doing this successfully, you're actually able to take advantage of some extremely sharp players information and work, without necessarily ever knowing just what that info is. The lines on these week one games have been posted since mid July. There are some very sharp sportsbooks out there that cater to a heavily slanted wiseguy clientele. A couple don't even accept American action but the wiseguys all have ways into these books. In analyzing the betting patterns at these books and then taking a look at the betting trends publicly available to us at a book like Sportsbook.com, we see a game which the majority of the action coming in is on the Steelers and yet we see the line having moved from  7 to 6.5 and even 6 in spots. We're going to ride that trend here in week one. Texans +7 -115 for a small 2* play.


2* Titans +3 over Jags

The betting patterns described in the above game fit this game as well. But perhaps this ones easier to interpret. The Titans figure to be even better than they were a year ago going 10-6 and earning a trip to the playoffs. There was a 3 game stretch in November where they lost 3 in a row. Other than that, their other regular season losses were a 2 point loss to the Colts, a 3 point loss to the Bucs and an overtime loss to the Chargers. Fisher always has this team ready to play. Young has more weapons this year. The Jags have a world of off the field problems with the latest being the shooting of Richard Collier. An outright Titan win shouldn't surprise anyone. Titans +3

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

GOLD SHEET - KEY RELEASES

Buffalo by 10 over Seattle
Tampa Bay by 7 over New Orleans
Under the Total in the Detroit-Atlanta game

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Power Plays

4* Selections

4* New England
4* Arizona / San Francisco OVER

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Wunderdog

St. Louis at Philadelphia
Pick: St. Louis +7.5

There wasn't a team in the NFL that had the injury issues to key players like the Rams did a year ago. They finished with a dreadful 3-13 mark - their worst finish since 1991. But certainly they are a better team than that. This team ran an offense behind a make-shift line each week, and the injury-depleted line stopped the Rams cold. Look for a healthy Marc Bulger to approach 2006 numbers. Many people have forgotten just how good he was back them (over 4,000 yards and 24 TDs with just eight interceptions). Even with a troubled offensive line, and four games missed due to injury, Stephen Jackson still rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. With a healthy line and healthy Jackson, look for the Rams to improve dramatically, and come out in game one with something to prove. Philadelphia played in some close games last season as five of their eight losses were by 4 points or less. The biggest problem was trying to turnover the opponent, as the Eagles managed just 19 takeaways all season. The Eagles biggest void, as has been the case for much of the Donovan McNabb era, will be at wide receiver as Kevin Curtis is out with a sports hernia. That leaves Reggie Brown, another oft-injured receiver, to carry the load. The other problem area for the Eagles is at linebacker, where they will field the youngest group in the league. This group may need time to get things in sync. Overall, this is a Rams team that is being treated by the odds-makers as not much different than their injury plagued '07 season, when the reality is they are more like the '06 team. I am backing the overlay here on the Rams.

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