NCAAF WEEK 2 NEWS AND NOTES
Re: NCAAF WEEK 2 NEWS AND NOTES
College Cram Session: Week 2
By DAVID PAYNE
Something that stuck with me from last week’s drivel: Professional sports bettor David Malinksy emphasized the importance of understanding why the line has been set at a particular number. For example, if you know the starting quarterback is out, so do the oddsmakers, and that is why the line is set where it is. Recognize this, and then determine whether bookmakers are accurate in accessing the impact in accordance with the line.
Remember, oddsmakers like Pete Korner of the Las Vegas Sports Club set the line with the information they have available at the time.
“It's up to the bookmakers to change that line, be it with money or on air if he thinks an element has changed the value of the line before he gets money coming down and interpret the value of changing factors as they occur over the week,” explains Korner.
News that came out in the middle of the week that did not immediately affect the line:
Georgia Tech at Boston College (-7): The Yellow Jackets announced Thursday that two of their starting linebackers would miss Saturday’s ACC opener.
Oregon State at Penn State (-13): Joe Paterno announced on his Thursday night radio show that two of his starting defensive linemen, including first team All-Big Ten selection Maurice Evans, and a reserve tight end were suspended for the Oregon State game. The Nittany Lions opened as 13-point favorites against the Beavers. The line surged to as high as 16.5 at some books.
Tropical Storm Hanna: Take a glance at what the opening totals of these games, which are expected to be impacted by Hanna, and see it they’ve been properly adjusted.
1. West Virginia at East Carolina, 4:30 p.m.: Opening total — 49. Forecast: rain ending late afternoon.
2. Ole Miss at Wake Forest, 3:30 p.m.: Opening total — 46.5. Forecast: rain ending late afternoon.
3. Northwestern at Duke, 7 p.m.: Opening total— 44. Forecast: rain ending late in the evening.
4. UConn at Temple, 12 p.m.: Opening total — 38. Forecast: rain throughout the day.
New clock rules
Scoring was up slightly, but plays were down significantly and games were a little shorter in Week 1. Does that mean it’s time to jump on the under? Not necessarily.If the trend continues, the oddsmakers will adjust way before you do. But do take a close look at games that are expected to be blowouts.
“I think if you want to burn the clock it becomes easier with the 40-second play clock,” said Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops at his weekly press conference. “If you get to the last four minutes of the game and you only have a limited number of possessions you need to use all of it, and we will."
Question of the day: Should you bet the same amount on every game you play?
I do, because I want to feel equally strong about each of my plays. That never happens.
Here’s what does happen: I end up dropping as much on my just-because-it’s-on-TV bet as I do on a game I’ve actually done some real handicapping on. I sleep with a severe lack of discipline.
Anyway, money management articles generally bore me. I’d much rather hear it from you guys. Should I bet the same amount on every game, keeping in mind my discipline issues?
Good luck everyone. It will always be our turn to catch a break tomorrow.
Re: NCAAF WEEK 2 NEWS AND NOTES
INDIAN COWBOY'S NCAAF RESEARCH
Connecticut vs. Temple
I had this game as an Upset alert from the early part of this week in part because Temple's great performance in thier first game by going on the road to do so well as this team is returning a wealth of starters. Of course, the line opened up at a little over a touchdown, and now has steadily gone down to 6.5 as Temple is the home dog. Connecticut did not play much of a competition in their first game either, and the total is a striking low 38. This could be in part due to the incliment weather that my buddy Dallas let me know of. But, usually, with an active dog, the game goes over as that is a principle that I Have been writing about for the past 4 years in depth. Rememeber, Connecticut did beat Hofstra 35-3 in their last ballgame, but also note that Tyler Lorenzen through for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in the last ballgame - as it was the Connecticut running game that scored the points (another reason why the line is low as Connecticut likes ball control and to run). Temple though just destroyed Army and lost to this tema by just 4 last year and this is a game they can get revenge, at home and the have significantly better quarterback play and offense here.
Akron vs. Syracuse
I think it's been a long time since Syracuse has been favored in a ball game, period. It actually amuses me that they are actually giving up points to a team. Note that roughly 60% of the public still favors Syracuse coming into this game, these 2 teams have not played each other at all in recent memory, in fact, I don't know if they have ever locked horns in their football history, Syracuse comes off a 20 point loss on the road at Northwestern which of course, they failed to cover, Akron comes off a 21 point loss on the road at Wisconsin. Note, that this Akron team is sound, they have a great QB in Chris Jacquemain who threw for 2 touchdowns and 0 picks at Wisconsin, a top 15 team in the nation, and actually completed more than 60% of his passes while Andrew Robinson did not throw a TD and threw a pick against Northwestern. In fact, he barely passed for over a 100 yards. Syracuse actually returns more players with 7 on offense (similar to Akron) but 6 on defense while Akron only returns 4. Of course, this is no good if your returning starters are not that good - lol. Having said this, despite the total going under since opening, I simply can't all see all that much defense here as both teams should have some success scoring.
West Virginia vs. ECU
We're about to find out how good ECU really is. ECU had a huge win over VT at home against an in-state rival, having said that, I was never high on VT this year, last year or any year for that matter. I am high on WVU though as I love their coaching from top to bottom. The line has gone down from an opening of -10.5 all the way to -7.5 and similar to App State not surprising LSU this time as the word is out, the same is here for WVU as the word is out and this team will NOT take them lightly. WVU beat this team 48-7 last year at home, of course this ECU went to Hawaii and beat Boise State if you remember in a bowl game recently so they do have some remaining talent and they showed it last week for certain, WVU beat Villanova by 27 at home in a game that didn't have a spread in week 1, having said this, I lean on the over here as I do think ECU will be competitive, but will likely remain a bystander to see how this game shapes up as it is still very early in the season to have a passionate stance one way or another on either of these teams.
Kent State vs. Iowa State
I know, this is not a very sexy game compared to the other game on the board, having said that, note that Kent State lost to Boston College earlier this year 0-21 and this is a proud team that is returning 14 of its 22 starters from last year, note that Iowa State is returning 11 of its 22 starters from last year, roughly half the team. The reason why this game appealed to me is the fact that Kent State is 0-1 already and considering that this team had high expectations for this season, it would take a lot for this fairly veteran group to start the season 0-2. Having said that, Iowa State has plenty of revenge from last year's season opener when they won on the road by 9. The total has been steadily moving down as well, look for Kent State to play well today as this is a more vet team that comes off a loss and Iowa State comes off a big victory, albeit a Division II school, but still ranked in the top 20 in division schools, remember this is the same SDSU that beat Minnesotta recently - I wouldnt' be surprised to see Kent State either win outright as they have a great QB in Julian while Iowa State's QB job is a bit more up in there, I think Kent State likely will be in better sync today, wouldn't be surprised if they lose by a field goal either but still manage to cover.
Miami of Ohio vs. Michigan
You know, I actually sincerely thought of taking Miami of Ohio over Michigan today, but then I thought better. After all, Miami of Ohio comes off a tough loss at home, in fact, an embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt (who by the way is now 2-0) as this team was emerging last year, Michigan is also ticked off from their season opening loss to Utah (one of my plays and a very good team as that was not an upset really, as Utah is a great team that was 9-4 last year and had returned 18 starters to boot), but Michigan is a very young team and Rodriguez is trying to instill his high flying offense with a different crop of players that wasn't his choosing for the most part. I certainly can't wager on Miami of Ohio, but in the same token, I don't trust Michigan's young crop either.
Minnesota vs. Bowling Green
This is going to be a great game to watch if you get a chance to track it. Note, that the total here is 56 as both teams should have their success in scoring points. I understand that Bowling Green beat Pittsburgh, but here is a newsflash, Pittsburgh stinks. It amazes me how this team gets all the press only to get embarrassed over and over again as this team simply blows. If you remember, Bowling Green also beat this team 32-31 in overtime. Thus, Minny undoubtedly has revenge coming into this game and they beat Northern Illinois by about 4 and did not cover the 10 point spread. Having said that, they could have just been looking ahead for this game. This team returns a solid core of starters, 7 on offense and 7 on defense while Bowling Green returns 6 on offense while 8 on defense which explains why more ballgames for BG would in fact, likely go under this year. As per this game, I expect it to be competitive all the way through.
Miami vs. Florida
These 2 teams have not met since 1994 and this is actually College Game Day's ballgame today, in fact, Florida has not beaten Miami since 1985. That is likely to end today as if I know about this stat, UF certainly does. Miami rolls in as basically a 3 touchdown dog here and note that Miami in my mind has not gotten significantly better than last year. This team did beat Charleston Southern - of course, they are also a division 2 team as well. Florida on the other hand, destroyed Hawaii which basically was a division 2 team as well as they had their third stringer in but not many knew about it, it's alright, because I drilled it for a pod. Look, Jacoby Harris is a good looking kid for Miami as he can thrown some quality passes, but when he faces this Florida defense he is in for a rude awakening. Note, that the betting public is 50/50 on this ballgame. Harvin and Spikes are both listed as probable in the latest injury reports, so expect them to play. Meyer will not look to just beat this team, but basically embarrass them likely. This game is on ESPN and I can see Florida winning this game by a significant margin.