Saturday Service Plays

Saturday Service Plays

MATT FARGO

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Miami Dolphins

There is a lot of confidence in Miami right now. The Dolphins are coming off a win against Jacksonville this past weekend but it was more than just a win. It was the first victory for head coach Tony Sparano and if there is anything he wants to do, it is to keep the confidence building and to have the wins rolling into the regular season. Most impressive could be the fact that the victory over the Jaguars came on the road and now Sparano will be going after that first home win.

This is the third game of the preseason and this is the week that starters play more into the game while the coaches actually do some game planning. Miami looks good in this phase as its starters shut out the Jaguars, taking a 13-0 lead at halftime, and the reserves held on for that 19-14 victory. The offense was solid all around as Chad Pennington looked great in his debut, going 5-6 while rushing for 18 yards. Ricky Williams had a touchdown and a 4.3 ypc average while Ted Ginn Jr. had 58 yards receiving.

The Chiefs were not so fortunate this past weekend against the Cardinals as they lost by 10 points despite outgaining Arizona by 130 total yards. This is normally a possible take sign but there are some bad things that cannot be overlooked including mistakes that will be hard to turn around in just one week. The Chiefs didn’t score a touchdown Saturday until 15 seconds remained in the game and the offense and the defense both seem to be behind as this team is young and a lot still needs to be learned.

The Chiefs are a team that does not take winning too serious in the preseason and that is proven by their recent performances. Over the last four-plus exhibition seasons, they are 4-14 straight up including a 1-8 mark on the road. That 1-8 record is both straight up and against the number. The lone win was this season at Chicago but Kansas City was outgained there while allowing 175 yards rushing. We have the more confident and hungry team on Saturday and that results in a solid victory. Play Miami Dolphins 1.5 Units

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GATOR

70% Super Situation:

MLB Saturday: Play Against MLB home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, 75-23 SU since 1997 (76.5%)

PLAY: Boston Red Sox -140


e-Report Top Angle

Saturday: Sowers (Clev) is 0-12 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record)

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Will Cover
         
NEW YORK at NEW YORK

Start spreading the news...Brett the Jet is now in Gotham (you haven't heard?)! The pre-season numbers say JETS/JETS/JETS as they are 13-3 ATS in this series, but we are not buying as we will take the Mara-Men plus, minus, or pick in this contest. Super Bowl Champs are not about to lay-down in this battle with future HOF QB Farve at the helm for the fly boys as they will want to make a statement with a dominating performance against their upstart rivals!

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James Patrick

Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Pick: Under

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SCOTT FERRALL

NFL WEEK 3 Pre-Season (Saturday games)
   
Detroit -2.5 to the Browns--Cleveland really looked crappy against the Giants and Kitna has been sharp for the Lions so far--UNDER 42

Giants +2 from the Jets in their annual battle--Brett Favre spends some time on the ground in this one against that quick G-Men defensive front--OVER 38

Carolina -3 to Skins in Charlotte--I think all the betters will be on Washington--except me--take the Panthers at home all roll with it--UNDER 36

Cincy +2.5 from the Saints in the Queen City--The Bengals will finally look good in a game--OVER 42--I still can't believe Cincy brought Chris Henry back after all of his problems though

JAX -2 to the Bucaneers on the road in Tampa--I still think the Jags are hands down better than the Bucs--UNDER 34.5

KC +3 from Miami--I still think the Dolphins are going to blow--Chiefs pull one out on the road in S.Fla--UNDER 34

Minnesota +3 from the Steelers in Minneapolis--The Steelers aren't going to have any fun against that Vikings pass rush and defense--OVER 37

Baltimore +2 from the Rams in St.Louis--Ravens get it done against the lowly Rams--they don't have jack without Jackson running the ball--UNDER 35.5

Arizona +3 in Oakland--Black Hole this bitch--Leinart puts ona show to let his coaches know who the starter should be for the Cardinals--OVER 37


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR SATURDAY
   
Tampa +125 and Kazmir over the White Sox in Chicago

Yanks +125 at Baltimore--Pavano looks OK, but doesn't get a decision--NY wins it anyway over Guthrie

Lester -140 and the Red Sox at Toronto over Litsch

Florida +155 at Arizona--Volstad over Petit

Volquez and the Reds +150 at Colorado in an upset over Cook and the Rockies

Zito -150 and the Giants at home over the Padres

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Big AL

NFLX Rivalry GOY

Jets

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New York Jets over the New York Giants. This will be a VERY difficult game for Eli Manning & Co. to win. First of all, the Jets have a 2-day rest advantage over the Giants. The Jets played the Redskins on Saturday (and lost 13-10), while the Giants played this past Monday against Cleveland (and won 37-34). Additionally, the Giants have a game five days after this one vs. the New England Patriots, in a Super Bowl rematch. So, even though the Jets are a city rival of the Giants, could one forgive the Super Bowl Champs if their focus was on next Thursday's game vs. the Patriots? Additionally, Super Bowl Champs are an awful bet (0-9 ATS last 9) in the Preseason off a win and cover, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU loss. This game means a lot more to Brett Favre and the Jets, and they'll cover the spread. Take the Jets. Al McMordie.

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Ron Raymond

5* NFL-X BEST BET WINNER!

Saints / Bengals Under 41

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WILD BILL

Redskins +2½ (5 units)

Over 35 1/2 Redskins-Panthers (5 units)

Chiefs +3 (5 units)

Arizona +3 (5 units)

Over 37 Arizona-Oakland (5 units)

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Pointwise NFLX Phones

3* Washington
2* NY Jets

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Big AL

NFLX Rivalry GOY

At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New York Jets over the New York Giants. This will be a VERY difficult game for Eli Manning & Co. to win. First of all, the Jets have a 2-day rest advantage over the Giants. The Jets played the Redskins on Saturday (and lost 13-10), while the Giants played this past Monday against Cleveland (and won 37-34). Additionally, the Giants have a game five days after this one vs. the New England Patriots, in a Super Bowl rematch. So, even though the Jets are a city rival of the Giants, could one forgive the Super Bowl Champs if their focus was on next Thursday's game vs. the Patriots? Additionally, Super Bowl Champs are an awful bet (0-9 ATS last 9) in the Preseason off a win and cover, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU loss. This game means a lot more to Brett Favre and the Jets, and they'll cover the spread. Take the Jets. Al McMordie.


Preseason TV Game of the Year

At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns plus the points over Detroit. The Lions have opened the season with 2 wins, while Cleveland rolls into Motown off back-to-back losses, including last Monday's 37-34 setback at the Giants. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on Detroit minus the points here, but according to my database, that would be the wrong move. Consider that, since 1983, 0-2 teams are a spectacular 93% ATS on the road vs. .500 or better foes off an upset win in their previous game, provided that our 0-2 team is NOT getting more than 5 points in the game. Last week, Detroit upset Cincy 27-10 as a 3.5 point underdog, so the Browns fall squarely into our 93% system. Look for Romeo Crennel's squad to pull the minor upset. Take the points with Cleveland as our Preseason TV Game of the Year.

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Jim Feist

HOU Astros and NYM Mets
Take Under

Houston's offense has certainly gone in the tank on this road trip, averaging 3 runs. In fact, they are on a 3-1 run under the total. The offense won't come to life in this park. Shea stadium is a huge, pitcher-friendly park. They also won't score off Mets righty John Maine, who is in a groove, with a 0.63 ERA his last three starts. Houston is 15-11 under the total in games started by Brandon Backe, and 10-4 under the total on the road. Don't look for any runs in this big park. Play the Astros/Mets under the total.

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Dave Cokin

TB Rays and CHW White Sox
Take CHW White Sox

The battle of the division leaders continues tonight in Chicago as the White Sox host the Rays. Scott Kazmir goes for TB, and after what might have been a bit of a dead arm period, Kazmir is pretty much back on the beam in his last two starts. But he's facing a lineup that has been chewing up lefties at home, so this is a tough spot for Kazmir. The Chisox counter with Javier Vazquez, who may have the best stuff I've ever seen from a career .500 pitcher. The problem for Vazquez is his inconsistency, but when he's hot like he is right now, he is absolute go-with material. That's what I'll do here. Vazquez and the White Sox are the choice.

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Jimmy The Moose

New York Giants at New York Jets
Prediction: Over

In their last preseason game the Giants won 37-34 their 37 points were good enough for the over. All the Giants starters will see a lot more action tonight and expect another good night from the Manning to Hixon connection. New York is averaging 23.5 PPG while allowing 23.5 a game. The over is 1-1 in the Jets preseason games. The Jets will play Favre a lot more tonight and he too will move the offense and put up points. Favre has some nice weapons in Coles, Cotchery and Jones and expect him to make them all look good tonight. The team's will easily combine for at least 40 points tonight. Play the over.

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Wunderdog

Cleveland at Detroit
Pick: Cleveland +3

The Browns got caught in the wave of emotion last week in New York as the Giants made their first appearance in the Meadowlands since winning last year's Super Bowl. We expected New York to take it easy but they came out of the gate extremely strong. Cleveland was down 30-3 before they knew what hit them. But, they showed the moxie to keep clawing back and finished just 3 points short. Offense has not been the issue thus far in the preseason as the Browns have scored 54 points in their first two games. This is a week for the defense to bear down. Rod Marinelli has yet to win in his three years in Detroit after week two of the preseason. The Browns like to put the ball in the air, and the Lions have allowed 64% completions thus far, showing no ability to stop the air game. This Cleveland offense can take advantage of Detroit's weakness. Romeo Crennel has gone 2-1 in Cleveland in week three, and sitting at 0-2, we expect a good effort by the Browns who steal one in Detroit.

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BEN BURNS

Main Event

I'm laying the price with CHICAGO. Despite dropping yesterday's opener, the White Sox have still been terrific here at Chicago. I expect them to bounce back and even up the series. Like his team, Kazmir is much better at home. In 10 home starts, he is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA. He's pretty ordinary on the road though In 10 road starts, he's 4-5 with a 3.90 ERA. Kazmir has also been much better at night than he has been during the day. In 14 starts underneath the lights, he's gone 8-2 with a stellar 2.40 ERA. However, in six daytime starts, he's gone 1-4 with a dismal 5.23 ERA. Unlike Kazmir, Vazquez has been better during the day than he has been at night. He's 7-9 with a 4.62 ERA during his 19 evening starts. He's 3-1 with a much better 3.41 ERA in six daytime starts though, averaging nearly seven innings per start. Look for Vazquez to continue his strong recent pitching as the Sox bounce back and move to 9-0 their last nine home games against left-handed starters. *Main Event


MLB TV Total of the Month

I'm playing on St. Louis and Atlanta to finish UNDER the number. After seeing an extremely high-scoring series opener many people automatically assume that the next game will also produce a lot of runs. However, I've often found the opposite to be true. Rather than the bats 'heating up,' it can almost be as if they used up too many hits/runs the previous day. Regardless of what happened yesterday, this selection is based on what I expect to see on the field today. Knowing his tendency to struggle on the road, I successfully played against Lohse in his last start, a 7-3 loss at Cincinnati. However, he's been much better at home. In his last 10 starts here, he's allowed three earned runs or less seven times and four earned runs or less nine times. For the season, he's 7-2 with an excellent 3.08 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 15 starts here, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. The UNDER was 10-4-1 in those games. Lohse got crushed by the Braves back in 2002. However, he's allowed two earned runs each of the last three times that he's faced them, the last two of which both finished UNDER the total. Unlike Lohse, Campillo has been significantly better when pitching on the road. He's 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA at home. However, he's 4-2 with an outstanding 2.13 ERA on the road. He's also 4-1 with a stellar 2.63 ERA when pitching during the day. Campillo started against the Cards last month and allowed just two earned runs through seven complete innings. Even with yesterday's slugfest finishing well above the total, the Braves have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 20-7-2 when playing a road game with a total of either nine or 9.5. Look for the bats go cold, as those numbers get even better this afternoon


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JEFFERSONSPORTS

MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR SAT
SEATTLE-130
BOSTON-140
LA DODGERS+160

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: St. Louis Rams

The Rams host the ravens in Game Three preseason action tonight in a nice technical winning situation. That comes about when home teams in Game Three of the preseason off a win-no-cover are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. With the rams stoked about the signing of Steven Jackson look for St. Louie to improve on those numbers here tonight.

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Greg Daraban

Oakland at Seattle

Last night Seattle won 7-5 at Safeco Park. Both teams are struggling Oakland 3-7. Seattle just 2-8. BUT the price is right on a better team that comes up a dog today.

Take Oakland

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LT Profits

New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals Under 41.0

The posted total of 41 in this contest between the New Orleans Saints and the Cincinnati Bengals is very high for a preseason game under normal circumstances, and it seems even bigger given the state of the Cincinnati offense right now.

The Bengals managed just 10 points here at home vs. the Detroit Lions last week, but that is just part of the story as they lost wide receiver Chad Johnson to a sprained shoulder in the process. Cincinnati is also without second receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh right now due to a hamstring, forcing them to re-sign the troubled receiver Chris Henry earlier this week. As if that is not bad enough, running back Rudi Johnson is also unlikely to suit up with a bad hamstring,

Now granted, the Saints have looked strong offensively in the early going, but it is extremely difficult to go Over a bloated total like this when one team has to do most of the scoring. In fact, the Under is 56-46, 54.9 percent in all preseason games that have had a posted total greater than 40 since 2000.

We look for that pattern to continue here with a decimated Bengals offense.

Pick: Saints, Bengals Under 41


Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5

The Minnesota Vikings may be without quarterback Tavaris Jackson this week, while the Steelers figure to play their best game of the preseason with the regulars seeing more action.

Jackson suffered a sprained MCL last week, and you can bet that the Vikes will not want to risk having further harm done to the injury this week. Granted, he did participate in practice this week, but that is no guarantee that he will see action against a very physical Pittsburgh defense.

Now the Steelers lost to Buffalo in Canada last week after beating the Eagles in the preseason opener, but the starters have yet to see much action. That will change this week, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been fine during his limited duty, completing 11 of 13 passes with two touchdowns and a nice 126.3 passer rating.

We feel that the superior quarterback play the Steelers should get here makes them the play at this rather modest number.

Pick: Steelers -2.5

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Tony Stevens

Atlanta Braves vs. St Louis Cardinals    
Play: St Louis Cardinals -1.5   

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