Tuesday Service Plays

Tuesday Service Plays

SPORTS ADVISORS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (66-58) at Toronto (64-60)

The Blue Jays return home after a successful road trip looking to further damage the Yankees’ playoff hopes as these A.L. East rivals kick off a three-game series. Toronto will send ace A.J. Burnett (15-9, 4.67 ERA) to the mound opposite struggling Darrell Rasner (5-9, 5.18).

Toronto went 5-1 on its just-concluded road swing, capped off with a pair of impressive wins over the Red Sox on Saturday (5-1) and Sunday (15-4). The Jays are on hot streaks of 6-2 versus divisional foes, 5-0 with Burnett on the hill overall and 7-0 when Burnett works at home. However, the last time the Jays were north of the border, they got swept in a three-game series against Cleveland, scoring just four runs.

New York took two of three on a brief three-game homestand against the Royals, including Sunday’s 15-6 rout. However, since coming out of the All-Star break with eight straight wins, the Yankees have lost 13 of their last 21, going 3-8 on the road during this stretch. They’re also mired in slumps of 0-6 in series-openers, 4-9 in Rasner’s last 13 starts overall and 1-6 with Rasner on foreign turf.

The Yankees hold a slim 5-4 advantage in this season series, with the host winning six of the nine meetings.

Burnett has given up four runs in each of his last three starts, yet he’s won all three by identical 6-4 scores, beating the Rangers and Tigers on the road and the A’s at home. He’s also 9-3 at home despite a hefty 5.13 ERA, but one of his best starts of the season at the Rogers Centre came against the Yankees on July 13, when he yielded one run on six hits in 8 1/3 innings. Going back to the start of last season, Burnett is 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA in four starts against New York.

Rasner lasted just five innings in Wednesday’s start at Minnesota, giving up three runs (two earned) in taking a 4-2 loss. The right-hander has gone 11 consecutive starts without a quality outing, and he’s lost nine of his last 11 decisions. Also, he’s 2-6 with a 5.96 ERA in eight road starts, but he’s 2-0 with a 4.91 ERA in two career outings against the Blue Jays, including a 9-4 victory in Toronto on July 12.

In this rivalry, the under is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in Toronto and 4-0 when Burnett faces New York. The under is also 5-2 in New York’s last seven overall, 15-4-1 in Toronto’s last 20 games overall, 13-3 in Toronto’s last 16 at home and 4-0 in Burnett’s last four outings versus A.L. East foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and UNDER


L.A. Angels (76-47) at Tampa Bay (76-48)

The top two teams in baseball are set to continue their three-game series at Tropicana Field, presuming that Tropical Storm Fay steers clear of the Tampa Bay area. If the storm doesn’t force the postponement of tonight’s contest, the Rays are set to give the ball to James Shields (10-7, 3.75), while the Angels will go with Ervin Santana (13-5, 3.49).

Tampa Bay held on for a 6-4 victory Monday night, boosting their major-league-best home record to 46-17, including 42-10 in the last 52. The Rays, who now trail Los Angeles by a half-game in the race for baseball’s best record, are on a 15-4 overall run (6-1 at home), and they’re now 5-2 against the Angels this year (4-0 at home).

L.A. is fighting a rare slump, having lost four of its last five, which comes on the heels of a five-game winning streak. Despite the downturn – which includes a 1-3 mark on this current road trip – the Angels remain baseball’s top road team with a 39-24 record. They’re also on streaks of 22-6 on Tuesdays, 21-7 versus the A.L. East, 20-8 against right-handed starters and 10-4 following a defeat.

The home team has won six of the seven clashes between these clubs this season and nine of the last 10 going back to 2007.

Tampa Bay is 9-2 in Shields’ last 11 starts overall (5-1 in the last six), 10-2 in his last 12 against the A.L. West and 21-6 in his last 27 at home. This year at the Trop, Shields is 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA in 13 outings, 12 of which Tampa has won. That includes a complete-game, 2-0 win over the Angels on May 9, when Shields dominated in a one-hit, no-walk, eight-strikeout performance. Although Shields lost a 6-1 decision in Anaheim a month later, he’s 4-0 with a 1.27 ERA in four career home starts versus the Halos.

L.A. has lost three of Santana’s last five starts, with the right-hander posting a 4.05 ERA during this stretch. On the bright side, despite horrific career numbers on the road coming into this season, Santana is 9-2 with a 3.45 ERA in 14 starts as a visitor in 2008. Conversely, he’s 3-3 with a 6.21 ERA in seven career efforts against the Rays, getting a no-decision in his team’s 8-5 loss in Tampa on May 11 when Santana yielded five runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 frames.

The under is 5-2 in Shields’ last seven starts overall and 8-4-2 this year when Santana pitches on the road. However, the over is on runs of 7-1 for the Angels against right-handed starters, 4-1 for the Angels against the A.L. East, 5-1 for the Rays at home and 4-1 when Santana pitches at Tropicana Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY

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Gator Report

70% Super Situation

MLB Tuesday: Play On MLB (NL) favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season, with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season, 124-34 SU since 1997 (78.5%) 6-1 SU this season!

*PLAY: St Louis Cardinals -205

*We rarely play any favorite over -150 but in some cases the technical and fundamental support combine to provide a solid play on teams with a higher line and this happens to be one of those cases. Although we still find it difficult to lay that much chalk so we looked a little deeper into the system and we found that the average score in a game this system qualifies is 6.6 to 4.2 which results in a line differential of +2.5. This game is a possible run line selection with a current line of St Louis -1.5 (-105) at BetCris (10:22 PM EST Monday).


Top Angle

SAN FRANCISCO is 0-10 (-10.4 Units) against the money line versus teams turning 0.8 or less DP's per game in the second half of the season this season.

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Dave Cokin

KC Royals and CLE Indians
Take KC Royals

The change of scenery from St. Louis to Cleveland seems to be working for Anthony Reyes. But I'm not buying Reyes just yet as a pitcher worthy of being this much chalk against anyone. Although he's off a quality start last time out, Reyes wasn't able to record even a single strikeout, indicating he had some good fortune along the way. Rookie Luke Hochevar has had his ups and downs and is not reliable at this point. But I'll take my chances that this is one of his good nights and I'll go for what I feel is decent value with the Royals as big road dogs.

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Jim Feist

SD Padres and ARI D'backs
Take SD Padres

The Padres have been competitive of late, going 4-4 despite being an underdog in 6 of those 8 games. They've played 3 one-run games over the last 5 games, plus put an 8-3 beating on the Phillies as a +130 dog. Padres relievers have an 0.38 ERA over the past seven games, allowing only one run in 23 2/3 innings while striking out 28 against nine walks. They take on another team in a pennant race, but Arizona is 5-6 the last 11 games. Starter Doug Davis walks too many batters (50 in 99 innings) and is 0-3 with an ERA of 12.27 his last 3 starts. A 4-7 pitcher with a 4.79 ERA doesn't warrant being this large a favorite. Play the Padres.

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VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Huge pitching mismatch here in favor of Toronto with Burnett over Rasner. New York has scored three runs or less in 6 of 9 meetings with the Blue Jays this season, including twice against Burnett. Not that we really need a reason to go against Darrell Rasner anymore (6.60 ERA L3 starts), but an 0-6 team start record on the road when the team is coming off a win is sufficient enough for us. The Blue Jays staff continues to be the best in the AL.

Play on: Toronto

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Tom Freese

Florida Marlins at San Francisco Giants

Florida is 7-1 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 9-2 when their opponent allows 2 or less runs in their last game. The Marlins are 9-3 off a loss and starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco is in Awesome KW form with 21 strikeouts and just 1 walk in his last 3 starts. San Francisco is 6-18 their last 24 games vs. winning teams. The Giants are 3-10 in the last 13 starts made by Kevin Correia.

Play on: Florida

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Vernon Croy

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers    
Play: Detroit Tigers     

Detroit has the superior pitcher on the mound with Armando Galarraga (11-4, 3.11 ERA) who will be looking for his 5ht straight win while Vicente Padilla (12-6, 4.85) has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.88. Galarraga has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 2.48 while allowing just 56 hits over 76.3 innings and I look for him to have a lot of success against this Rangers line-up that has not faced him before. Padilla got lit up by the Tigers in his only start against them this season allowing 8 hits and 7 earned runs over just 3 innings including 3 homeruns. I look for the Tigers to hit Padilla hard again tonight and Detroit has owned Texas with a perfect 3-0 record against them this season and a perfect 5-0 record over their last 5 meetings. The Rangers opponents are hitting 325 against them over their last 7 games while averaging 8.3 rpg and I look or the Tigers bats to come alive tonight in Arlington. Take Detroit as your free MLB play for Tuesday and make sure you get on my huge 17-8 MLB Bookie Buster run tonight.

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Nelly

Tampa Bay – over Los Angeles

Even though the Angels own the best road record in baseball by a wide margin the Rays are too tough at home, winning 41 of the last 51 home games. James Shields has great numbers on the season as the Rays have won nine of his last eleven starts and he has allowed more than three earned runs in just two of those outings. Shields is 7-1 at home this season with a 2.21 ERA and the Rays have lost just one home game out of 13 home starts for Shields this season. Ervin Santana has very solid numbers for the Angels but he has allowed four or more runs in five of his last nine starts. The Angels have actually lost three of his last five starts and the Rays have won five of the past six meetings at Tropicana Field. The Los Angeles bullpen has shown considerably vulnerability in the last week as well. Look for the Rays to make a statement with a big win Tuesday night.

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Brad Diamond Sports

Play on: Washington/Philadelphia 'Over'

Phillies return to the Bank looking to gain ground on the Mets who lost out in Pittsburgh on Monday. After an elongated slump the return to their band box should help invoke the hitters touch needed to carry a high scoring game to the scoreboard. Philadelphia is 14-5 OVER off a road swing of seven days or more.

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Detroit

The Tigers and Rangers go at it Tuesday night when Armando Gallaraga matches serves with Vicente Padilla in Arlington. Gallaraga has been a pleasant surprise for the Men from Motown, especially on the raod where he is 8-4 with a 2.48 ERA. In fact, in his last four road starts Galarraga has issued 3 walks against 20 strikeouts. With Padilla owning a 5.72 ERA under the lights at night this season, look for the Tigers to tame the Rangers for the 6th time in a row in this series here this evening.

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Great Lakers Sports

New York Yankees at Toronto 
Play on: Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are on a roll going 5-1 in their last six games, and the Blue Jays starting pitcher Burnett has a nice 5-2 record with an 2.85era vs the New York Yankees since 1997. The Toronto Blue Jays is also a very respectable 15-9 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this year, and they are 51-41 vs right hand starting pitching so far this year. We here at Great Lakes Sports look for the Toronto Blue Jays to roll over the New York Yankees in this key American League showdown for the home win tonight.

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Jimmy The Moose

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: over

The over is 5-1 in the Padres last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1-1 in the Padres last 6 road games overall. San Diego has played the over in 3 of Banks last 4 starts. Over his last 3 starts his ERA is 6.06. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 games following a loss. The over is 6-1 in Davis' last 7 starts. The over is 9-3 in his last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Davis has an ERA of 12.27 over his last 3 starts. Play the over.

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Big Al McMordie

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers    
Play: Under   

At 8:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers 'under' the total. Detroit's 26-year-old righthanded starter Armando Galarraga has not only tossed his hat into the ring for AL Rookie of the Year honors, he has thrown it in with authority. With the recent injury to Tampa's 3b Evan Longoria, Galarraga may now have put himself into the lead, even though he is a pitcher and this award seems to favor hitters. This is Galarraga's first ever start vs. the Rangers and he may have a little extra incentive tonight because Texas is the team which traded him to Detroit during the offseason. He has been very good on the road this season, going 7-2 with a 2.72 ERA away from Comerica Park. The Rangers will be without their main sparkplug as everyday leadoff hitter and second baseman Ian Kinsler was recently placed on the DL with what is being called a sports hernia. Kinsler may be on the shelf for the rest of the season if he opts for surgery, which is the normal course of action for this type of injury. The Rangers won't want to take any chances with their 26-year-old All Star, so don't look for Kinsler back any time soon. His continued loss should be felt on the scoreboard as his replacement Ramon Vazquez is a light hitter with only 6 homers in 266 at bats and more importantly, no steals. Without Kinsler, there is virtually nobody in this lineup who is a threat on the basepaths. Even with Monday's 8-7 run-fest, the under is still 7-3-2 in the last twelve meetings between these two teams. Take the 'under'.

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Ross Benjamin

New York Yankees @ Toronto    

Don’t get sucked into taking the Yankees in a tempting underdog position. The Toronto starter Burnett is 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA versus the Yankees since the start of the 2007 season. Burnett is 7-0 in his last 7 team starts at home. The Yankees starter Rasner enters the game in terrible form off of his last 4 starts posting a 6.60 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Rasner is 1-6 with his last 7 team starts on the road. Toronto enters this series having won 5 of the last 6 overall and trail the Yankees by just 2 games in the AL East. The Yankees are a dismal 15-26 in the opening game of a series this season. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays.

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SCOTT FERRALL

BASEBALL LOCKS FOR TUESDAY
   
Philly -210 and Blanton easily over the Nationals at Citizens in Ferralladelphia

Perez -210 and the Mets over the fast sinking Braves at Shea as NY opens a fat week at home against Atlanta and Houston

Houston +210 at Milwaukee as Moehler pulls off the upset over Ben Sheets--it just seems too automatic to me to snag the Brewers

Reds +250 at Wrigley with Cueto coming through against Harden and the Cubs--Chicago was -310--are you kidding me ?

Seattle -108 at ChiSox against Richard--King Felix can beat them wheb they aren't expecting it

Slowey and Twins -200 over the A's at the Homerdome--Minnesota is in the thick of the chase, so it's important to them

Galarraga (even odds) and the Tigers pull one out over Padilla and the Rangers in Arlington

Angels -120 at Tampa--I'm on Ervin Santana at the Trop over James Shields

Toronto -145 on AJ Burnett over the dying Yankees, who are 9.5 back in the East and 5 back in the Wild Card


BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR TUESDAY
   
CHISOX-MARINERS OVER 9

OAK-MINN UNDER 8.5

DET-TEX UNDER 11

ANGELS-TB UNDER 8

NY-TOR OVER 9

BOS-BALT UNDER 9

KC-CLEV OVER 9

FLA-SF OVER 8

ROCKIES-DODGERS UNDER 8

SD-ARIZ OVER 9.5

PITT-CARDS OVER 9

HOUS-MILW OVER 8

ATL-NY OVER 9.5

NATS-PHILS OVER 9


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR TUESDAY
   
Dice K -165 at Baltimore-take the Red Sox because he's doesn't lose these days and Boston is hitting

Reyes and the Tribe -175 at home vs the hapless Royals and Hochevar--I watched KC play on Saturday and they really are horrid

SF +115 at home over the stinky FISH (Marlins), who's season is going down the drain

Kuroda -145 over the Rpckies and Jimenez at the Revine in Lipstick City

Arizona -200 and Davis over the Padres, who have sucked balls all year

St.Louis -200 with Looper having an easy night of it against the Bucs and Ian Snell

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

MLB EARLY RELEASE
MINNESOTA-189

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Bobby Maxwell

L.A. Angels +110 at TAMPA BAY 

Los Angeles can't seem to find the answer to the Rays this season but we've still got faith in the best road team in baseball. We're going to play the Angels and starter Ervin Santana (13-5, 3.49 ERA).

Tampa has won four straight against the Angels in Florida and beaten them five of seven times this season. Regardless, the Angels still lead this series 48-21 in the last 69 matchups.

Santana is 2-0 in his last three starts with a 2.95 ERA and he is 9-2 on the road this season with a 3.45 ERA. Santana allowed three runs in 6.1 innings but his bullpen let him down and the Mariners got the 10-7 victory. In his last road start he blanked the Yankees for eight innings on five hits as the Angels got a 1-0 victory.

James Shields (10-7, 3.75 ERA) has a 4.50 ERA in his last three outings. He gave up four runs in five innings at Oakland on Thursday but the Rays got a 7-6 victory. He's faced the Angels twice already this season and got drilled back on June 10 when he allowed six runs on 10 hits in a 6-1 loss. But in May he threw a complete-game, one-hit shutout against Los Angeles as the Rays won 1-0.

These are the best two teams in the American League and I gotta believe the Angels are tired of getting beaten in these matchups. We're playing them to snap that slide in Tampa with a win tonight.

4♦ L.A. ANGELS

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Nostradamus

Toronto -140
Tampa Bay -125
St Louis -185
White Sox -105

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JB's COMPUTER PICKS

Toronto Blue Jays -135

Milwaukee Brewers -240

St. Louis Cardinals -200

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JEFF BONDS

WASH/PHILI OVER 9 (2 DIME)

HOUSTON ASTROS +230

TEXAS RANGERS +109

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