Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Toronto at Boston

Boston is 6-2-2 UNDER their 10 Sunday games and they are 12-4 UNDER with Josh Beckett vs. an opponent that allowed 2 or less runs in their last game. Beckett is 5-2 UNDER when he pitches with 5 days of rest. The Red Sox 5-0 UNDER the last 5 meetings in Boston vs. the Blue Jays. Toronto is 17-5-2 UNDER their last 24 games and they are 7-2-1 UNDER off a win. The Blue Jays are 29-11-1 UNDER their last 41 Sunday games and they are 6-2 UNDER on Sunday when Shaun Marcum pitches. PLAY UNDER

         

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Nelly

Baltimore + over Detroit

Baltimore has scored 73 runs in the past ten games and the Orioles should not be overlooked with solid underdog value today. The Orioles own a .326 team average in that span and Detroit has failed to score more than five runs in any of the past six games. The Tigers have lost four of the last six and their offensive numbers against left-handers have fallen dramatically, batting just .233 over the past ten games. Zach Miner has done a respectable job for the Tigers but the bullpen is still a huge liability. Miner has just 40 strikeouts with 32 walks allowed this season so his control can be a problem and facing the hot bats for Baltimore will be a challenge. Garrett Olson lacks great overall numbers but he is 8-6 on the season and he has pitched well in day games. Olson has received strong run support this season and he should be able to keep the slumping Tigers in check. A hot offense as an underdog against an underachieving team sounds like a good formula for success.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Matt Fargo

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

After last night?s loss, this is a big one for the Rays. Tampa Bay is now 13-4 over its last 17 games. The pitching has been outstanding over this stretch as the staff has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of those games including last night despite the loss. The offense is not far behind of late as it has plated five runs or more in 10 of its last 14 games, averaging 5.9 rpg over that span. Tampa Bay is now 6-2 over its last seven road games and 25-8 after scoring fewer than two runs last time out.

Texas meanwhile has dropped four of its last five and eight of its last 10 games and remains right at the .500 mark of the season. The Rangers pitching has been a problem all season long and that is certainly no change of late as they have allowed seven runs or more in seven of its their last eight games, giving up an average of 5.9 rpg over that stretch. The offense, which has been decent most of the year, has now scored just three runs in the last three games.

Scott Kazmir takes the hill and he is getting a great price at just under -150. He has struggled of late with four straight non-quality outings but three of those were due to lack of innings. He is facing a Texas team that he has gone against six times and is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.03 with the Rays going 6-0 in those games. Texas sends Dustin Nippert to the hill for his first start since 2006. He has pitched out of the bullpen and has struggled with a 7.03 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in 14 games. The Rays win the series. Play Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 Units

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Hamels hasn't gotten much run support recently. He's still one of the best southpaws in the National League though and the Phillies should provide him with some runs to work with this evening. That's because Baek has been brutal at normally "pitcher-friendly" Petco Park. Indeed, in eight starts here, he's gone 0-7 with an awful 6.75 ERA and 1.742 WHIP. Those kind of numbers won't get it done vs. Hamels. In this season's lone start against the Padres, Hamels allowed five hits and two runs through 7 1/3 innings, earning a 7-4 victory vs. Greg Maddux. He was even better in his last start here at Petco. That came last July and saw him allow a mere two hits and one run through seven complete innings. For the season, Hamels is 4-2 with a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road. Look for him to "get back on track" as the Phillies rebound from last night's loss and close out the series with an important victory.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

David Malinsky

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Over 4*

We had to wait the lineups out for this one, after Tony LaRussa had hinted earlier that he might be giving Albert Pujols a day off, but now that it is confirmed that the Cardinal star will start we can pull the trigger. The markets are doing what they often do in August - they are accepting the full-season statistics of Kyle Lohse and Edinson Volquez as Gospel, and that sets the bar far too low for this Total. We are being offered a “9” as a Win number, and that works on a warm afternoon in the Great American Ballpark.

Lohse checks in at 13-5/3.92, another in a series of Dave Duncan reclamation projects. But off of a 32-48/4.93 the previous four seasons combined, it is also a turnaround that is not going to last. You do not go through 692 innings at a level below league average and suddenly become a star, particularly when you lack the stuff to dominate hitters (only 88 strikeouts in 156 frames). So what are we seeing now? A guy that is wearing down. First note that for the full season it has been a 5.40 on the road, as opposed to 3.08 at home, which does not bode well for this park on a warm afternoon. Then note that he has worked to a 7.48 over his last four starts, and in his only two road outings since the All Star break lasted just 9.1 innings vs. the Marlins and Mets, getting tattooed for 11 runs on 17 hits, four of the latter leaving the park. He is clearly in a decline, and we believe that trend continues here.

As for Volquez, his 14-5/2.86 can still lay claim to Cy Young contention, but the young right-hander is dealing with his own fatigue at the same time that N.L. hitters have now had enough time to get proper scouting reports. Over his last nine starts he has worked to a 5.44 tune, and that does not count seven unearned runs in 49.2 innings in that span. They do count for us, of course, the result of toiling in front of a Cincinnati defense that now rates as the N.L.’s worst on our charts. In this span he has allowed six home runs, after only giving up four in his first 95 frames, and he may well get worse instead of turning things around. Yet the fact that his last start was a solid box score against Pittsburgh helps to shadow his true form, but in reality shutting down the Pirates means next to nothing these days.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

LARRY NESS

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros

What a pitching matchup we have on Sunday. Randy Johnson goes for Arizona and Roy Oswalt takes the hill for the Astros. No one would argue that Oswalt has been on of the decade's best pitchers, entering this game with an impressive 122-62 mark (3.20 ERA), since his 14-3 (2.73) rookie season in 2001. However, few pitchers in MLB history can match Johnson's career, as the Big Unit enters this game 294-158 (3.26 ERA) and the owner of 4,737 career Ks, as well as five Cy Young awards (four straight in the NL from 1999-2002). It would have been easy to write off Johnson (and some did), after he lost six straight starts from June 3 through July 1, while posting a 7.94 ERA. After all, Johnson had spent most of the '07 season injured, making on 10 starts in going 4-3. However, the Big Unit is alive and well these days, having won six of his last seven starts, posting a 1.77 ERA and striking out 36 while walking just THREE, over 45.2 innings! As for Oswalt (10-8, 4.52 ERA), he's 3-0 in four starts since missing 2 1/2 weeks with a hip injury, as the Astros have won all four of those outings. Oswalt hasn't faced the D'backs since May of 2007, when he gave up six runs and 10 hits in six innings of an 8-4 loss. However, he had been 6-0 with a 1.98 ERA in seven career starts vs the Diamondbacks before losing that game and I'm going to back him here, as the Astros look to avoid the dreaded home sweep. Houston had won eight straight games (and 16 of 20) before the D'backs beat them 12-2 (Friday) and 11-5 (Saturday), while 'banging out 26 hits. I may be "spitting into the wind" here but the fact remains that the D'backs have domianted NL West foes in '08 (31-16, .660) but are just 33-43 (.434) against the rest of MLB. Take Houston.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

LEE KOSTROSKI

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under

At the beginning of the season Kyle Lohse and Edinson Volquez were pretty unlikely candidates to be among the top pitchers in the National League but both have delivered great results. Lohse is 13-5 on the season and although he has lost three of his last four starts he is still pitching well. The ‘under’ is 13-9 in Lohse starts this season and 9-3 in the last twelve meetings between these two teams.

The Reds are hitting just .241 over the past ten games and Cincinnati is just 3-13 in the last 16 home games as the offensive punch is now missing from the lineup. Cincinnati has failed to score more than five runs in eleven straight games and on the year the Reds are a solid ‘under’ team despite a home run happy home ballpark. Four of the last six meetings between these teams have played ‘under’ and this should be another low scoring game.

Edinson Volquez had a dominant performance in his last game as the Reds gave him a few extra days of rest following a few so-so outings. Volquez owns a 2.86 ERA on the season and he has allowed just ten home runs in 144 innings. Despite their struggles overall the Reds actually feature the third best bullpen ERA in the NL so Volquez will have excellent support late in the game. The ‘under’ has cashed in five of eight meetings this season and with two pitchers that have been on top of their game this season on the mound this should be another pitching duel.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

STEPHEN NOVER

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

This matchup is too tough to turn down from a value standpoint. Toronto starter Shaun Marcum is pitching well lately and Boston starter Josh Beckett has struggled at home this season. He hasn't been that effective historically versus Toronto either.

Marcum had a 9.82 ERA in his first three starts following an elbow injury. Since then, in his last two starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Opponents are batting .218 against him during this span. Marcum said better location on his fastball is allowing him to mix his pitches more effectively.

Marcus is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in nine career appearances against the Red Sox.

Beckett has been hot, too. He's allowed only three earned runs during his last three starts. But he has a 5.03 ERA in nine starts at Fenway this season.

Beckett is 3-4 with a 4.92 ERA in nine career starts against the Blue Jays. He's had particular trouble with Vernon Wells, who has slugged five homers off him in 27 at bats.

The Red Sox are very tough to buck at home, where they've won 71 percent of their games this season. But Roy Halladay showed yesterday that strong pitching is the No. 1 trump card.

At this big of a price, Marcum is worth taking a shot on.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Root

Chairman- Dbacks
Millionaire- Bengals
Money Maker- White sox

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Bob Akmens

7* Jays/Red Sox over 8.5

4* Rockies/Nationals under 8

4* Brewers/Dodgers under 8

4* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

4* TB Buccaneers

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Dave Malinsky

4* TORONTO/BOSTON Under

We have gone to the well with Josh Beckett Under in each of his last
two games, and while we only managed a split, the premise of catching
him at the right time has been dead on - he allowed only three runs
over 14.2 innings in a pair of dominating road outings, with more
strikeouts (15) than hits + walks combined (13). Now he returns home
to Fenway for the first time since a rare ugly outing in that Park
vs. the Angels three starts back, and that means a special chip on
his shoulder. It also means a chance to dominate a limited Toronto
offense.

In getting behind Beckett recently we noted that there has not been
anything wrong with this stuff at all. He went 20-7/3.27 LY, behind a
1.14 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts-per-9. This season his overall has
fallen to 11-8/3.92, despite the fact that the WHIP is 1.18 and the
strikeouts-per-9 right at 8.7 again. The only issue has been an
increase in home runs, but he has not allowed one in either of those
last two starts, and only two in 35 innings since the All Star break.
Now he faces a team that is most unlikely to hit one (the Blue Jays
are dead last in the A.L. in that category), which means that his
roll has every chance to continue. And note that stepping down in
class is something that he has not had a chance to do often - of the
135 pitchers that have worked at least 80 innings so far, his
difficulty of batters faced is #11.

We get value because the markets see his full-season numbers more
than the current form, however, and the same can be said about Shaun
Marcum. Marcum had to work his way through some physical issues
earlier, which led to a stint on the DL, and he also struggled to
find his rhythm on his return. But in back-to-back solid wins over
Oakland and Detroit we have seen the Marcum that we are accustomed to
- he allowed only three runs on 11 hits over 13 innings of those
wins. Now he can continue to make up for lost time much like Beckett,
and with Roy Halladay?s Saturday gem leaving the entire Toronto
bullpen rested and ready, the latter stages are in good hands as well.

Not only are both of these starters under-valued, but each bullpen
brings the key arms fresh. That means we have outstanding value, and
we can also attribute that earlier Red Sox series vs. Texas this week
for more of that - beating up that cluster of Minor League pitching
talents does not indicate at all where this offense really is, and
when they had to finally step in class last night they failed
miserably.


6* CHICAGO over OAKLAND

We got behind Javier Vazquez in his last outing, and here was the
prelude to the play from that writeup - ?. . .and with a notion
that we are in the right place at the right time to get behind Javier
Vazquez it means time to get involved here. . .Meanwhile Vazquez is
not being treated well by the marketplace because he has been on a
1-5 slide over his last eight starts, but take a closer look. He has
pitched seven full innings in three of four starts since the All Star
break, and went six in the other, an easy road win over these Royals.
We do not see anything wrong in his stuff at all, and the timing is
right to start buying in behind him now for a late-season
correction.?

All Vazquez did was pitch perhaps his best game of the season,
shutting the Royals out over eight innings, and having twice as many
strikeouts (10) as hits allowed (5). But when we see the near pick?em
range for this game it shows that the markets are still far behind
the true level of the Chicago right-hander. His 9-10/4.50 makes him
appear to be the epitome of an average pitcher, which he is not. So
for a guy that has solid peripheral numbers, managing nearly a
strikeout per inning (151 in 156 frames), and also having more than
three times as many strikeouts as walks allowed, we will not hesitate
to get into play again. With the superiority of the White Sox
offense, we will also get involved in a major way.

Chicago will be facing a left-hander for the third straight game, and
in Gio Gonzalez we see a vulnerable young hurler. He is considered a
decent prospect because he has a live arm, but he lacks polish and
command, and is not ready for this level yet. He was an uninspiring
8-7/4.24 at AAA, with a high walk count, but the Athletics have
decided to give him a look anyway, even through his 23rd birthday is
not for a couple of more days. And while his 1-1/4.09 may appear that
he has held his own through the first two starts, that has not been
the case at all. First he opened against the Blue Jays, who have been
the A.L.?s weakest offense against left-handers, and were playing
without Vernon Wells. Then it was a home game against a Tampa Bay
team that has also been among the bottom in the league against
left-handers, and was playing without Carl Crawford and Evan
Longoria. So his base numbers have to be adjusted because of the
limited competition, and note that in holding the Rays to one run
over five innings he was more lucky than good - nine of the 23
batters that he faced reached based via a hit or a walk, and he had
an ugly ratio of seven fly-ball outs vs. only two on the ground. The
bottom line? There is not much there. Now he has to step way up in
class against a savvy veteran lineup that packs a lot of punch, and
it will not take long before he gets exposed.

The White Sox are well-set in all facets here. By getting a rare win
in this ballpark on Saturday they got a bit of that monkey off of
their backs, which takes the psychological issues away. There is also
a red-hot Bobby Jenks (1.83, 25 saves) ready for the latter stages,
with yesterday?s easy 9th inning (only nine pitches) coming after
three straight off days. Jenks has not been scored on in August,
allowing only two hits and not walking a single batter in six
appearances, and that creates more than the struggling Oakland
offense can overcome here, particularly with the White Sox figuring
to get plenty of production.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

LT Profits

2* Royals/Yankees Under 8.5

2* Florida Marlins

2* Mariners/Twins Over 9

2* Detroit Lions +3.5

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

KBhoops

5 units San Diego +1.5 +107 **POD**
5 units Cleveland +1.5 -115
5 units Florida +1.5 -124
5 units LA Dodgers -150

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

KELSO

High Rollers Club

10 units - Angels

Best Bets Club

5 units - Arizona
4 units - Detroit
3 units - White Sox

NFL

5 units - Bucs
3 units - Bengals

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Alex Smart

2* St Louis Cardinals

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections

BASEBALL POWER PLAY RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR
Minnesota w/Perkins -1.5

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

The Hitman Guaranteed Selections

5000 LARGE BASEBALL INSIDERS MAJOR MOVE
LA Dodgers w/Kershaw -152

5000 LARGE DIAMOND TOTALS DOMINATOR
Seattle and Minnesota OVER 9.5

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

INDIAN COWBOY

Oakland +107 (POD)

It looks I'll have nothing in football, so we'll pan for some plays here in baseball, White sox are on the road here at Oakland where typically unders are the order of the day there, Vasquez pitched a brilliant game at home against the Royals in his last start and had a 0era, which of course being a the rainer on the parade, I think he likely has a let down here, after all, the white sox won 2-1 yesterday, so Oakland is not in a good mood given that and that fits in with the under that usually occurs in Oakland given their great starting pitching at home, Vasquez did face Oakland earlier this year and lost 2-3, he did pick up the loss despite pitching a complete game and gave up just 4 hits but 3 runs, the new kid Gonzalez going for Oakland today and Oakland has always had a great crop of young pitchers that they have brought up and that includes the likes of Hudson, Haren, Harden, H. Street and Duch etc...so just given that, I would take a look in the Gonzalez kid today and the white sox haven't faced him yet so the advantage goes to the pitcher for at least the first time through the lineup, do note that over 67% are on the small road favorite in the whitesox which typically spells trouble, Vasquez has not put together back to back quality starts in quite some time (over 1.5 months) and he is 3-6 with nearly a 5 era on the road as compared to 6-4 at home, lean on the A's here and the newbie as the small dog, I think Vegas has folks set up for a fall with the white sox and the A's are on a bounce-back with a new pitcher the whitesox have not seen yet not to mention Vasquez and his trouble attempting to pitch back to back quality starts.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

mvbski wrote:


Seabass

50 SF
50 Col/WAS Under
50 AZ/HOU Under

Insider Play...100* Yanks on the run line

Bomber Play...300* Mariners/Twins Over

10* Tampa Bay -2

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