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Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Mike Rose

3* Oakland

3* Mariners/Twins Over 9

3* Cardinals/Reds Under 9.5

3* San Francisco Giants

3* Texas Rangers

3* Miami +3.5

3* Chicago pk

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Elite Sports Circle Guaranteed Selections

Philadelphia w/Kendrick -140

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Alex Smart

2* LA Dodgers

2* LA Angels

3* Chicago -1.5

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Lenny Del Genio

JAC -3.5 (-110) vs MIA

Everyone is going to talk about how much "more" this game means to Miami being that they are coming off a dreadful 1-15 2007 regular season and a bad loss in the preseason opener. The only problem there is that right now the Dolphins don't have the personnel to beat half the teams in the SEC! Consider that this young team was -9 in the penalty department vs. Tampa Bay last week and that game was at home! You'll have those kinds of mistakes (false starts, holding) with a young group. The Jaguars, on the other hand, looked great last week in beating Atlanta as put together four scoring drives of nine plays or more totalling 78, 55, 61 and 66 yards. Already in mid-season form, the Jags have a clear offensive edge in this one, even when starter Garrard leaves as backup Cleo Lemon played for Miami last year. On defense, Jack Del Rio has promised to be less vanilla this preseason on defense and it paid off last week with five sacks. With Miami's sorry cast of QB's and weak offensive line, look for tons of pressure and an easy cover for the home team. Take Jacksonville.

KAN -2.0 (-110) vs ARI

Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are 0-5 in preseason play following last week's two touchdown loss to New Orleans as three-point home favorites. Reserves were outscored 17-0, which is not encouraging. After not playing at all last week, QB Kurt Warner is expect to start this week for Arizona, which means two things. Expect him to be rusty and turn the ball over like usual. Kansas City is one of the few teams taking the preseason seriously after a terrible 2007 and unlike some of the other bad teams in the same boat, they have the personnel neccessary to get it done. That was evident in last week's outright win in Chicago. Herm Edwards is asking both his QB's Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen to open up the offensive attack and it paid off with 24 points last week. With Arizona currently enduring inury issues at WR, O Line and the secondary, they just don't have what it takes to get it done here. Take Kansas City.

SDC 3.0 (-110) vs STL

These teams have met 10 times in preseason play since 1993 and every time San Diego has cashed in. That includes a 30-13 beatdown right here in St. Louis nearly one year ago to the date. Expect a similar result this time around. Even with Norv Turner saying that the starters wouldn't play as much as they did a week ago in Dallas, we're confident as the Chargers boast some of the best depth, if not the best, in the league. The Rams, meanwhile, have an offensive built around RB Steven Jackson and he's holding out. St. Louis' first-team offense wasn't together much last season either due to a boatload of injuries. Right now, their offense is behind all others, with the possible exception of Miami. That was evident when Marc Bulger had an interception returned for a TD last week vs. Tennessee. Remember that the Lightning Bolts led the league in interceptions a year ago. Getting the points here is a premium. Take San Diego

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

JAC / MIA Over 34.5

In Week One the Dolphins game stayed under the total as they managed just six points. However, look for a big bounce back from the Miami offense this week as they are emphasizing that side of the ball after playing so poorly in the 17-6 loss to Tampa Bay. To put up just six points at home means a little extra effort from the offense as they head to Jacksonville for this Week Two match-up. The Jaguars know all about preseason offense as they scored twenty points in last weeks win. It was the sixth time in their last seven preseason games that a Jacksonville game went over the total. With a 15-6 preseason record it is evident that Jaguars Coach Jack Del Rio puts an emphasis on wining in preseason . To win this game, Jacksonville is once again going to have to score at least 20, in our opinion, and thats why the play here is the over. The Dolphins will be trying to open things up on offense after their dismal effort versus the Buccaneers in Week One. Keep in mind that the Dolphins have a new head coach in Tony Sparano and hes in his first season as an NFL coach. This means he will certainly be hungrier than the average coach is in the preseason and, yet, Del Rio of the Jags is certainly not average! That means both coaches will be pushing a bit on offense Saturday evening. With the Dolphins, the position battles have been opened up because of the new head coach and that means a little extra intensity for this game. The Dolphins QB rotation is also battling it out in this one. Note that the Dolphins signing of Chad Pennington from the Jets adds even more intrigue to the QB battle as it had been a three-way race between Josh McCown, Chad Henne, and John Beck. Adding fuel to the Dolphins desire to perform well this week is that Bill Parcells is in a management position with Miami now and he has a well-deserved reputation as a no-nonsense guy. In other words, even though it was only a preseason game, Parcells wasnt pleased with seeing his Dolphins score just six points. Look for a much more wide open game this week and, as a result, an easy Over!

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MIA 4.0 (-115) vs JAC

Although home teams got off to a strong start in Week 2, the road dogs barked loudly in Week 1. I feel that this will be another strong spot to back the visitors. It's true that the Jaguars were the much better team in recent seasons and that was the case again last season. It's also true that the Jags won their Week 1 matchup, although by only a field goal, while the Dolphins lost theirs. Last season's and last week's results have helped to further strengthen the betting public's view that Jags are the much better team. This in turn, has given us solid line value on the Dolphins. Thursday showed us that teams that win in Week 1 (and vice versa) don't always necessarily fare very well in Week 2. In fact, the two teams (Pittsburgh and Carolina) which entered Thursday's games with a 1-0 record both lost. Conversely, the two winless teams (Buffalo and Philly) both won.

The Dolphins enter this game with plenty to prove. They're off another terrible season. They've got a new coach (Tony Soparano) who really wants to show that he's the right man for the job and who would really like to establish a winning mentality. Note that Soparano has Bill Parcells, who generally emphasized winning in the preseason, looking over his shoulder. The Dolphins also have a full-blown quarterback competition going on. Judging by the amount of practice snaps, it appears that newly acquired Chad Pennington and Michigan rookie Chad Penne will see the majority of the snaps this week. Those two are in competition with McCown and Beck and all four are highly motivated to show that they should be the starter. After being run out of New York due to the arrival of Brett Favre, Pennington should be particularly determined to play well.

Unlike the Dolphins, the Jags have very little to prove. They are coming off a strong season. Coach Del Rio enters the season with more job security than most of his NFL coaching peers - although that's not saying much. Additionally, they've already got a win under their belts and they've got an established #1 guy (David Garrard) at the all important QB position. Whether it's Garrad, Cleo Lemon or Todd Bauman in the game, the Jags' QBs will be playing behind a thin offensive line which is without center Brad Meester and a receiving corps which will still be without a couple (Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter) of its key components. Like the Steelers were in their Week 1 game, note that the Jags were rather fortunate to win their opening preseason contest. Not only did they have fewer first downs that the Falcons but the Jags were also outgained by nearly 80 (343-265) total yards. Additionally, they were very fortunate that the Falcons only scored three points off Jacksonville's three fumbles. These "instate rivals" typically meet in the preseason each season. The Dolphins, listed as slight underdogs, won by a score of 18-17 in last year's game. I'll gladly take the points but I expect a highly motivated effort from the Fish and for them to step up and score another outright win. *NFLX Underdog GOY

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Ethan Law

Opposite Action Plays   

JB Sports 

Sunday Selections   

LT Profits 

Mike Lineback

Mike Rose   

Pacific Star 

Rocketman Sports 
Pick: NEW YORK JETS -2.5 

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Matty O'Shea


Washington’s John Lannan has the worst run support in the majors at 2.88, and the Nationals have won just 2 of his last 14 starts.  I know Colorado’s Livan Hernandez hasn’t been good, but I’ll take him in this spot with a much better offense around him (hitting .282 against lefties) as a home underdog.

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There are few points to be found either early or late in this one
based on the personnel rotations, and with a pair of conservative
coaches only dragging the tempo down even further, we have plenty of
value here. Both teams lack the kind of depth at the skill positions
that cause any fears in the second half. But our real key is that we
can not expect any fireworks when the first-team offensive units are
on the field either.

The Miami passing game was abysmal in last week?s pre-season opener
vs. Tampa Bay, and will be a work in progress for quite some time.
That is what happens when you not only lack play-makers at both QB
and in the WR corps, but also experience with of the passers and
catches working together. Now that aspect gets muddled even more with
Chad Pennington thrown into the mix. They need to get him some work
ASAP, but it means that we will be watching a learning process here,
and not a cohesive attack. And since Pennington must rely on
completing a high percentage of short throws to move a team, which
does not figure to happen under tonight?s circumstances, we could see
the Dolphins bog down throughout in this one.

For Jacksonville the picture is also rather bleak when the starters
are on the field when it comes to the passing game. David Garrard
will be without WR?s Jerry Porter, Reggie Williams and Troy
Williamson because of injury, and that makes big plays hard to come
by. But with most of the lineup settled, and a win already under his
belt, Jack del Rio will not be looking for all that much anyway. His
Jaguars are in against a team that they can beat at the line of
scrimmage, and there is little reason to reach back into any kind of
bag of tricks. And once Garrard sits down the reserve QB?s may be
veterans in Cleo Lemon and Todd Bouman, but in their first year with
the Jaguars they lack experience with both the playbook, and the
teammates that they are working with. Big plays? They just are not
there in this one.


The first home game can a special time for a new head coach, even in
the pre-season, when the scoreboard supposedly does not matter. But
if ever there was a case in which both the coach and the team needed
to make something happen in front of the home fans, we have it with
Mike Smith and his Falcons. In a prime opportunity to show that it is
indeed a new regime, they come in with the edges to beat a ?trophy?
opponent, and we will back them to do just that.

It is no secret that the Colts have an abysmal pre-season record
under Tony Dungy. An offense that is over-loaded with high-paid
talent in the skill positions lacks quality depth, and now even the
defensive depth is an issue, with key cogs Dwight Freeney and Bob
Sanders sitting out again. The running game has been particularly
bothersome, with the top trio of Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes and
Kenton managing just 22 yards on 16 carries. But that will not bother
Dungy all that much - in the third straight game away from home the
scoreboard means absolutely nothing, with more than a week before
hosting Buffalo next Sunday in a game that he can grab a ?W? if he
really wants one.

Smith wants the win now, and can get it. Keep in mind that the talent
on hand is not awful, with the Falcons not that far removed from
being in the playoffs. What happened in 2007 was as much a
psychological and emotional meltdown as physical failure on the
field, and by tightening the ship Smith can field a competitive team
this season. Not a winner, but a competitive team, and that is enough
to get past the limited opponent that they face here. We get the
benefit of a real QB battle going on, with Joey Harrington getting
the start before giving way to Matt Ryan and Chris Redman, who are
all capable of making plays against the reserve Colt defenders. We
might even see a little D. J. Shockley, and his athleticism can be a
weapon in the latter stages against defensive players that lack

With more competition at the key skill sports, more energy from the
home crowd, and much more focus on the scoreboard, the Falcons get
this one.


What we feel is clearly a bad move by the marketplace has set this
one up for us with the 49ers as a home underdog, and that is
tremendous value. Not only do they want to win the game more, but
they also have a major edge in terms of preparation, and far more
experience at the key QB positions. That means time to step this one

For Green Bay this is a preparation headache, off of the Monday night
home game vs. Cincinnati. And nowhere does that preparation matter
more than at the QB position, where both back-ups are rookies, and as
such have never taken a road snap against NFL competition. And while
Aaron Rodgers and the first team will get more work than they did
against Cincinnati on Monday, key RB Ryan Grant will not play, and
the others will have completed their evenings before halftime. That
leaves more than half of the game to Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn,
working with some mediocre compliments at the skill positions, and
with limited playbooks.

Contrast that with a 49er QB battle that has J. T. O?Sullivan (a
former Packer that would particularly like to show well against
them), Alex Smith and Shaun Hill all alive for the starting spot. It
not only means a serious focus on every snap from that trio, but it
also calls for the kind of plays that can give them a chance to show
what they can do. With O?Sullivan starting it means that we get two
QB?s with regular-season starting experience working against the
reserve Packer defenders, which opens the door for San Francisco to
dominate the second half. The control may already be there by
intermission, with the 49er offensive and defensive starters like to
be on the full a full series more than their Green Bay counterparts.

Will Mike Nolan be looking for such dominance? You had better believe
it, in what is his make-or-break season. Off of that ugly loss to
Oakland in which they were -4 in turnovers the 49ers need a
confidence boost, and with a road trip to Chicago on deck Nolan knows
that there is nowhere better to make it happen than in front of the
home fans.

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3 units Milwaukee +135

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For the second time in six days we have a Pedro Martinez vs. Zach
Duke matchup. In the first Martinez controlled the Pirate offense
with much more ease than Duke was able to handle the Mets, but a
complete late collapse by the New York bullpen allowed Pittsburgh to
score three runs in both the 7th and 9th innings to rally for the
win. The overall result gets reversed here, largely because the
Martinez vs. Duke gap has a chance to grow even wilder, while a
bullpen that has settled down since Monday?s fiasco (only one run in
10.1 innings) takes care of the rest.

We get Martinez at a fair price here because of his uninspiring
3-3/5.37 overall numbers, but he may be a full level better than that
at this juncture. In three starts since returning to the rotation it
has been a 3.12, with only 12 hits allowed in 17.1 innings. He should
get a little stronger each time he takes the mound, and after holding
the punchless Pirates (23 runs in the regulation nine innings over
their last 10 games) to one run on three hits over six innings in the
first go-round, he can continue that dominance here.

Then there is Duke. We have been successful in both Play On and Play
Against setting with him this season, understanding the patterns of
the soft-tossing left-hander well. And this is where he is at his
worst. He can be effective when going up against a lineup that lacks
experience against him, getting them to swing at borderline pitches
on the edges of the strike zone that are tantalizing because of their
lack of velocity. But many of those swings become easy contact outs.
What happens when a team gets a second look? A 1-4/5.85 is what has
happened for Duke so far this season, that is what. And over the past
two months it has been a dismal 0-6/6.41 overall, with many of those
innings being in ?second look? situations, and the league having a
full scouting report against him.


Last night we found excellent value with a Cardinal team that has the
best road record in the N.L. taking on a weak Cincinnati side with an
over-rated pitcher on the mound. They priced it in a pick?em range,
which was absolutely wrong. So what do we have here? Basically the
same game.

Aaron Harang has been one of the N.L.?s best pitchers in recent
years, but the Harang of 2008 is so far off of that form that we do
not fear any kind of immediate turnaround. A 3-12/5.17 absolutely
does not get him to this price range, especially with his first game
back off of the DL an absolute horror show in which the Astros racked
him for eight runs, including three homers, in only four innings. The
last five times he has worked from a Major League mound it has been a
stunning 0-3/9.35, with nine home runs allowed in 26 innings.
Rebounding from that into being what he once was will take time, if
indeed it is to happen before the 2008 schedule runs out.

Joel Pineiro has been able to eat innings for the Cardinals at a
5-5/4.82 clip this season, and after struggling to maintain a good
early pace in the July heat, he has found his game the last two times
out, allowing only two runs on four hits over 12 innings of key wins
over the Dodgers and Marlins. Now on a cool (low 70?s at first pitch)
August evening he can continue that rebound, with the far superior
offense and defense behind him. To get the Cardinals in a pick?em
range again is outstanding value.


The surging Dodgers dominated Milwaukee by much more than the final
score last night, with an edge of 12-7 in hits, including 2-1 in
doubles and 2-1 in home runs, despite getting three fewer outs to
work with. We also believe that Derek Lowe is an excellent matchup
against this lineup, while David Bush is not nearly as good as the
recent form charts would indicate. So with the marketplace still not
catching up to how good Los Angeles is right now, we are in play.

The Dodgers have won seven straight home games, scoring 40 runs in
the 56 offensive innings and batting .338. They are getting
contributions throughout a lineup that had been filled with
under-achievers prior to the spark of getting Manny Ramirez and Casey
Blake on board, and in truth they still have not played their best
baseball yet. Now they get a chance to take on the over-rated Bush,
who can be fully exploited here.

Yes, Bush shows a solid 5-2/2.77 over his last nine starts, but take
a closer look. His luck of the draw has had him in against some of
the weakest offenses in the Major?s in that span. Ned Yost was so
concerned about his stuff that he toyed with not starting him at all
on the road the rest of the way, which is what a 2-6/6.19 away from
Miller Park can do to a manager?s confidence. There has only been one
road start for Bush since June, and while that was a solid
statistical outing, it came at Cincinnati vs. the slumping Reds. he
hardly brings the stuff to turn around the Los Angeles offensive

Meanwhile Lowe is an excellent fit against the Brewers with his
sinkers. Milwaukee must mash in order to be successful, with an
offense that is tied for second in the N.L. in home runs, but rates
just 12th in batting average. You simply do not hit home runs against
Lowe from this mound, where he has worked to a rock-solid 2.83 this
season, allowing only six dingers in 89 innings. And his form is
right where we like to see it - in six starts since the 4th of July
his ground-out to fly-out ratio has been at least 3-1 every time, and
he has walked only six batters in that span. Yes, there was a clunker
at St. Louis two starts back, but that was against a lineup that
brings an entirely different plate discipline than the one he faces
tonight, and we can back him with a lot of confidence.


At the start of the season, a John Lackey vs. Fausto Carmona,
Angels/Indians matchup would have looked like a beauty. Instead we
have a Angel team, a starting pitcher, and a bullpen that holds huge
advantages over their Cleveland counterparts. Yet the marketplace has
not priced the setting properly, largely because there is still a
refusal to believe just how far Carmona has fallen from that special
19-8/3.06 of 2007.

You can throw those past numbers out. In fact, even the mediocre 4.91
ERA that Carmona sports this season does not show just how much he
has struggled. A 1.64 WHIP, and a precipitous ratio of 52 walks vs.
35 strikeouts is a story of a bad pitcher. And since coming back from
the DL he has been even worse, with 24 runs allowed (22 earned) in
just 19 innings, again with more walks than strikeouts. He is
overmatched vs. this lineup, which features a lot of low-ball hitters
that can drive his sinker the other way, and that will also mean an
early appearance from a weak Cleveland bullpen. Guys throwing as
poorly as Carmona do not simply snap their fingers and correct.

There are no such issues for Lackey, who sports a sharp 5-1/2.73 on
the road, and will also bring a chip on his shoulder after being
dinged around by the Indians in a game that he still managed to win
at home on July 23rd. There is no particular reason to fear what
happened that day - in only his second start since the All Star
break, and sandwiched between Home and Away starts vs. the Red Sox,
he did not bring his ?A? game. It was also a day with an atmosphere
that greatly favored the hitters, with the Angels eventually winning
14-11. Off of their Friday loss there is no chance of Lackey taking
the Indians lightly this time, and with the far superior bullpen also
bringing the key arms rested and ready the latter stages show major
edges to the visitors as well.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Teddy Covers

3* Florida Marlins

5* San Francisco +1.5

4* Chicago pk

3* Jaguars/Dolphins Over 34.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays



50* St. Louis
50* Arizona

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10 units St. Louis -3

1 unit Wash +2.5

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ATS Lock

6 units Vikings +1.5
6 units St. Louis -3
3 units Texans/Saints OVER 36.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Indiancowboy Comp

Packers/49ers Over 35

I'm releasing this play a bit late, so a little shorter on the analysis, but the Packers lost at home 17-20 to the Bengals and that does not sit well with their fans likely despite it being the first preseason game of the season as Rodgers will be under a microscope, I expect him to play much better today, note that this San Fran team only put up 6 pionts in their last ballgame on the road and one has to think they put up more points at home tonight as Smith looks to fight for his starting job so he is likely to play well, Rodgers is likely to play better than he did last time as the Packers look for the win, this has the makings of an active dog today and the line movements goes to show that as well which fits into my active dog/over principle. Thus, I think this agme is likely a 24-20 type of ballgame with San Fran possibly winning outright, but more importantly, I think this game goes over.

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JB Sports

6* San Francisco +1.5

5* Baltimore -1.5

5* Jacksonville -3.5

5* St Louis -3.5

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