Friday Service Plays
Re: Friday Service Plays
Jimmy the Moose Guaranteed Pick
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
The over is a profitable 16-5-1 in the Rangers last 22 games overall. The Rangers have struggled with pitching all season long especially at home with an era of over 5. Millwood for Texas has struggled in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 8.78. Garza for the Rays has also had problems with a 4.12 era in his last 3. Look for a high scoring affair tonight. Play the Over
Re: Friday Service Plays
1 Unit Play. Take Tennessee -4 over Oakland
1 Unit Play. Take Arizona +3 over Kansas City
2 Unit Play. Take Under 34 in Green Bay @ San Francisco NFLX Game of the Year.
1 Unit Play. Take Seattle +1 over Chicago
3 Unit Play. Take Colorado -115 over Washington
3 Unit Play. Take Arizona -135 over Houston
3 Unit Play. Take Cleveland -135 over Los Angeles
3 Unit Play. Take Chicago -120 over Oakland
Re: Friday Service Plays
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee -3.5 over Oakland
The Radiers had the 31st ranked rushing defense in the league last year and now they take on a Tennesse squad that ran for 340 yards last week vs the St Louis Rams. The Raider defense did play well last week vs San Fran, but the Titan offense is much better than the Pop Warner offense they faced last week. The Raiders has a good running game last week as they ran for 248 yards, but they are planning on allowing Jamarcus Russell to throw more in this one and reports are that he has not looked that great in camp, so the Titan defensive backfield could have a big game vs him. Tennessee looked really solid on both sides of the ball and Jeff Fisher really likes to win these warmup games. Vince Young vs Russell for the first half of the game is a gift and Tennessee should get another easy win here.
Re: Friday Service Plays
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Phialdelphia -129 over SAN DIEGO
The Phillies are 7-1 in Moyers last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game and 5-1 in his last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record, while the Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 14-40 in their last 54 vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies have really played well in this ballpark, going 12-3 in their last 15 at Petco. Jamie Moyer looks to keep the dominance in this series going and hes has been good for the Phils this year, going 10-7 with a 3.41 ERA overall, including a 6-3 mark with a 3.05 ERA on the road. Jamie is also 2-0 with a 3.95 ERA in 2 career starts at Petco. Greg Maddux gets the ball for the Pads and he is 6-8 with a 4.12 ERA overall, including a 3-3 mark with a 2.73 ERA at home. The Philly offense has been struggling a bit lately as they come in scoring 3.7 rpg in their last 7 games, but they still score 4.9 rpg on the road and they like hitting at Petco as they have scored 6.7 rpg in their last 9 games there. The Padres have scored 5.1 rpg in their last 7 games, but that number is still a bit inflated due to the Series in Colorado. Since that road trip the Pads have come home to score just 2 rpg in their 3 home games, plus in their last 9 at home this team has put up just 1.2 rpg. The Pads have been horrible at home lately, going 5-18 in their last 23 at Petco and I feel the Phils offense will come alive enough to avoid losing their 5th in a row for the 1st time in over 8 weeks. Go Phils.
3 UNIT PLAY
BOSTON -113 over Toronto
The Blue Jays are 3-11 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, while the Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter and 42-11 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. This is a big night for Paul Byrd, as he he is making his first home start for the defending champ and I see him having a good showing. Overall this year Paul is just 7-10 with a 4.53 ERA, but he comes to Boston on a roll, as he is 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last 4 starts overall, plus he is 4-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 7 career starts vs the Jays. He should get some offensive support tonight as the Boston bats are hot right now. The Redsox come in hitting .304 and scoring 7.2 rpg in their last 10 games. Overall the Sox hit .296 and score 5.9 rpg at home, including scoring 10.8 rpg in their last 5 at Fenway. Roy Halladay has had a very good season for the Jays, going 13-9 with a 2.79 ERA overall, including a 7-5 mark with a 2.57 ERA on the road, but Roy is just 10-11 with a 4.66 ERA in his career vs the Redsox, including a 4-7 mark with a 4.66 ERA at Fenway. I do think the Sox should be able to get at least 5 runs off him in this one and that should be plenty, especially with how bad the Jays offense should be. Toronto averages just 4.2 rpg on the road and they come in averaging just 3.1 rpg in their last 7 overall. I don't see them getting too much off of Byrd in this one. The Tide may be turning in the East, as the Rays are dealing with some big injury issues and that means it's time for Boston to make their move and I feel they will get a big showing from Byrd in this one, on their way to their 5th win in a row and 11th win in their last 14 games.
2 UNIT PLAYS
TEXAS -106 over Tampa Bay
The Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series and 7-17 in their last 24 meetings in Texas, while the Rangers are 8-2 in Millwoods last 10 starts vs. American League East and 20-8 in his last 28 home starts. The Rays are dealing with some serious injury issues right now and they are a definite fade team down the stretch. Matt Garza has a 9-7 overall mark with a 3.88 ERA, but he has struggled on the road with a 3-5 mark and a 5.37 ERA, including a 1-2 mark with a 5.83 ERA in his last 4 road starts. Matt is also 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 1 start in Texas. Rangers Park is not a good place for a struggling pitcher to go. The Rangers are hitting .300 and scoring 6.2 rpg at home, plus they hit .286 and score 6 rpg vs righty starters on the year. Kevin Milwood has not had a great year as he is 6-6 with a 5.40 ERA overall, but even with a high 521 ERA at home he still sports a nice 4-1 record, with the Rangers going 6-2 in his home starts. The Rays offense does come in scoring 5.1 rpg in their last 7 games, but just 3.7 rpg in their last 3 without Longoria and Crawford. Tampa scores just 4.5 rpg on the road and 4.5 rpg at night. Not enough runs vs this offense. Texas is struggling overall right now, but I feel that they can outscore a Tampa team that is miising a couple of offensive pieces.
I ALSO LIKE
MINNESOTA RL (-125) over Seattle
1 UNIT PLAY
Milwaukee/ LA Dodgers Under 7.5
The Under is 11-1-1 in Brewers last 13 road games and 6-1-1 in Parras last 8 starts during game 1 of a series, while the Under is 6-1-1 in Dodgers last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter and 11-3 in Billingsleys last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Dodger Stadium is ranked dead last in BA (.239) and Scoring 7.1 rpg and with tonight's pitching matchup, I see a game that will fall right in line with those numbers. Manny Parra has struggled a bit on the road with a 5.00 ERA, but he is going up against a Dodgers offense that scores just 3.9 and hits just .257 at home. Manny also has a 1.35 ERA in 1 starts vs LA. Chad Billingsley owns a 3.09 ERA overall, with his starts averaging just 7 rpg, while he has a 3.23 ERA at home, with those home starts averaging just 6.3 rpg. Chad also has a 1.29 ERA in 1 starts vs the Brew Crew. This stadium has allowed just 80 HR on the year and with Parra allowing just 10 and Billingsley allowing just 9 there shouldn't be many sudden scoring bursts. These teams will have to grind out the runs for this play to lose and it will be hard to do in the worst hitting park in the league.
I ALSO LIKE
LA Angels +133 over CLEVELAND
Re: Friday Service Plays
4* ST. LOUIS over CINCINNATI
The St. Louis Cardinals continue to play solid baseball, and get
little respect for it - how else can a team with the third best
record in the N.L., and best road record, be in only a pick?em range
against a slumping Cincinnati squad that has turned the remainder of
the schedule into an audition for young players? And with tonight
being the right time to get involved against Bronson Arroyo, it is
easy to be in play.
Arroyo is getting some market respect off of some decent showing
since the All Star break, but there is a dark cloud over him for this
one. Although he only allowed two runs over six innings of Saturday?s
loss to Houston, he labored to the count of 118 pitches, his high for
the season. That is where the problems begin. The past two seasons he
has worked to a 2-9/6.32 in outings off of games in which he has
thrown 110 pitches or more, and it is absolutely not a fluke - he has
been rocked for 109 hits in 78.1 innings in those games. This now
becomes back-to-back games of more than 100 (which also explains why
he was not sharp against the Astros, with his highest
Pitches-per-Inning count since the All Star break), and in the middle
of August when there is a tendency to be physically tired anyway, he
is most vulnerable.
We also get a short price here because Brad Thompson is being thrown
into the mix for St. Louis, but the setting is not bad at all.
Thompson has already made three starts this season, but he does not
have to be called on for much more than a long relief stint here -
the solid work from Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer in Florida the
last two nights brings all bullpen arms rested and ready (no reliever
worked twice in those games, and no one threw more than 14 pitches
last night). It all adds up to getting a team that is superior across
the board in a most favorable range.
5* PHILADELPHIA/SAN DIEGO Under
The fact that there are 8?s out there on this one means that not only
has the marketplace again not recognized how well Jamie Moyer is
pitching, but perhaps that they are not going to. His current run is
now at 13 straight starts in which he has allowed three runs or less,
the longest streak in that category for a Phillie pitcher in 41
years, and there is little reason why Petco Park, and the San Diego
offense, changes that. And as we have noted so many times in backing
him in this stretch, while there is indeed a lot of ?finesse? going
on, we are seeing a lot of pop coming from his left arm as well - his
current Strikeouts-Per-9 rate is his highest in this millennium. With
Randy Myers working a solid outing at Los Angeles last night the
bullpen is also rested and ready, with Brad Lidge looking ready to
make his return tonight (if needed).
Greg Maddux nearly matches Moyer in terms of birthdays and current
form. His current 3-0 run has led Bud Black to state that ?He?s
pitching as well as he has in a Padre uniform, if not better?,
and here in Petco he has worked to a solid 2.73 this season. While
stamina is indeed an issue at this stage in his career, there is not
a fatigue rating to be found anywhere in the San Diego bullpen, which
sets the stage for a slumping Philadelphia offense to continue to
4* OAKLAND/TENNESSEE Under
Last week in the Raider pre-season opener vs. San Francisco we cashed
an Under ticket that came about as easily as they are going to - in
an 18-6 win over the 49ers one of the touchdowns came on a punt
return, and there were precious few scoring opportunities for either
offense. We expect more of the same here from a team that shapes up
ideally for August Under?s - the passing game is a work in progress,
the defense is much improved, and there is plenty of competition at
RB, which gives the offense a spoken purpose of giving that deep
crops some work.
So why such a high Total here, despite the fact that the Titans are
similar in many ways (passing game is struggling, defense is much
improved, and the coaches want to give some new RB?s plenty of work)?
Largely because of that 34-13 Tennessee ?explosion? past the Rams
here last week. But that score created some misleading perceptions.
The Titan passing game struggled miserably, with Vince Young only
going 3-6 for 17 yards, but they ran roughshod over a hapless Ram
defense, amassing an incredible 340 rushing yards, including TD runs
of 66 and 45 yards. Add in an interception return for a TD, and the
scoreboard showed a lot of offense that was not really there. Now
they face a defense which will hit back, which means that those easy
ground gains are not available, and will require real precision to
get points on the board.
The Tennessee defense was solid in that win, a tribute to the kind of
depth that has been built up the past couple of years, and Jeff
Fisher believes that his second-unit on that side of the ball can
rival any in the game. That spells bad news for the bottom of the
Raider QB rotation, while at the same time the Titans are not going
anywhere with Ingle Martin at QB in the latter stages. We also have
the opportunity for some scoring chances to be missed here, with
kickers Sebastian Janikowski and Rod Baronas both missing tonight. In
a game in which we do not expect anything to come easily, that adds a
bonus to our advantages.
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