Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Terron Chapman

Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Chicago Cubs   

Sometimes you have to be cautious in laying a number like this on the road, even in a favorable situation like tonight. But I just cannot see the Cubbies losing this ballgame. They will be in search of their eighth straight win on the road when they conclude their series with the Braves tonight in Atlanta.

The Cubs took both games of the doubleheader between the two yesterday, outscoring the Braves 20-2 in the process. We can expect the offense to continue this evening with Tom Glavine taking the hill for the Braves. Glavine returns from the DL to make his first start since a June 10th start against Ted Lilly and the Cubs. He gave up four runs, six hits, and four walks in only three innings before leaving with a strained elbow in that contest. Not much has changed for Glavine since that outing. Word is he struggled in his two starts in the minors getting tagged for four runs and seven hits in nine innings. And now he returns to face one of the toughest lineups in the majors and one that has had success against him in the past. He's only 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in his last five starts against the Cubbies.

Ted Lilly will toe the slab for the Cubs as he looks to continue his recent success on the road. He's 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in his last seven road starts. The Cubs are 7-2 in Lilly's last nine starts with the chalk. The Braves are just 2-9 in their last 11 home games and they were just 3-9 in Glavine's twelve starts before his trip to the DL.Play on the Chicago Cubs for 1 unit.

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Tony Karpinski

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates   

The Bucs have been rock solid in the home chalk role this season at 23-7 in their last 30 games in the spot. The Bucs have also found a groove behind Ian Snell. The Reds are just 18-39 in their last 57 games as a road underdog, 5-17 in their last 22 overall, and only 1-7 in their last 8 vs. National League Central. Can you Snell what the Pirates are cooking? Take Pittsburgh at home on Thursday night. Play on the PIRATES 

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John Ryan

Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Philadelphia Eagles   

Carolina at Philadelphia – 3* graded play on the Eagles Thursday, August 14 The Eagles played reasonably well in their first pre-season game at Pittsburgh. Reports in local papers have clearly underscored the positive tone of this team. McNabb is having one of his best pre-season camps and the team has an attitude that they are NOT done yet – referring to another run at the Super Bowl. RB Westbrook has signed on for 3 year more years at 21 million, but the Eagles need to develop/find more offensive weapons. This will be a game to explore and define who these players will be. The AiS shows a 72% probability that the Eagles will win this game by 3 or more points and grades as a 3* MAJOR. Supporting this play is a strong winning system that has produced a record of 29-9 ATS for 76% since 2002. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second week of the preseason. Here is a second winning system that has produced a record of 43-17 ATS for 71% since 2002. Play on any team after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second week of the preseason. The Eagles will be even more focused on defense and in particular the defensive line. Jerome McDougal was drafted in the first round out of Miami in 2003, but he has played in just 33 of a possible 18 games to date. He didn't play a single snap last season because of a torn triceps. Two years earlier, he missed the entire season after being shot in a robbery attempt on the eve of training camp. He did play 3 quarters in the first game at Pittsburgh and he will get another long look Thursday night. He did get consistent pressure on the QB throughout those three quarters and is now considered to have the potential to make the team. If another defensive end, Victor Abiamiri, who has a broken wrist, goes on injured reserve, then McDougal’s chances of making the team go up significantly. At the same time, Darren Howard can play both tackle and end, which seemingly gives him an edge. It will be all decided on the field in the next several weeks so look for spirited and intense play from the Eagles defense that will dominate Carolina’s 2nd and 3rd string offense. Take Philadelphia. 

   
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Texas Rangers   

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Texas – I just absolutely love these types of plays when identified by the AiS. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-30 making 31.6 units since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a hot hitting team batting .333 or better over their last 3 games and starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings. Matsuzaka has impressive season stats, but he has struggled against Texas. He is 2-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.97 and a WHIP of 1.646. Texas is also 13-5 (+11.2 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 this season; 31-11 (+24.9 Units) against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. 

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Chris James Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates

I am going to ride this horse again today! The Pirates square off against the Reds once again Thursday night and I am expecting the same result as last night! The Reds are sending Johnny Cueto to the mound who is 7-11 with a 5.01 ERA. He is 0-2 in his last 3 starts with a 5.82 ERA. The Reds are 2-9 in Cueto's last 11 road starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a road underdog. Cueto has really struggled overall lately going 1-5 in his last 6 starts overall. But that is partly because the Reds have struggled overall as a team going 7-19 in their last 26 overall. They are 18-39 in their last 57 as a road underdog and 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter. The Pirates on the other hand are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. They are 14-2 in Snell's last 16 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. I am riding the Pirates to continue to play well at home! Play Pittsburgh

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

SEABASS

20* TB
10* Tex
10* Buff
10* Eagles

Comp-Baltimore/Cleveland Under

100* Vegas Steam Play-CUBS

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

WUNDERDOG

MLB

Milwaukee at San Diego
Pick: Milwaukee -108

We love the value on this moneyline as the oddsmakers have put way too much emphasis on Jake Peavy here. The fact is that the Padres are a team winning at a rate of just 38.3% of their games. How much does Peavy add to the overall performance of his team? There is simply no value. The Padres are 8-12 in Peavy's 20 starts on the season, or a 40% win rate against 38.3% overall. Milwaukee is one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of eight straight games, scoring seven runs a game, with not a single game under five runs during the winning streak. Ben Sheets negates anything that Peavy provides the Padres. He has allowed two runs over his last 15 innings of work, and on the season the Brewers are winning better than two of every three games he starts. The Brewers get the call here.


NFL

Oakland at Tennessee
Pick: Oakland +5

The NFL is often about what happened last week, even in the preseason. Sometimes all it takes for the general public to jump on a team is to watch a team the week before, or read about how great they were. They then line up to jump on that team's bandwagon the following week. So after Tennessee posts a whopping 34-13 victory in week one, immediately the oddsmakers react with anticipation and post the Titans as the biggest chalk of week two. ESPN has been showing highlights of running backs Quinton Ganther and Chris Johnson tearing things up all week. The nice thing for us is that the public immediately latched on and pushed the line up even higher than where it opened. Why not jump on Tennessee here? They carved up St. Louis for 340 yards on the ground and treated the scoreboard like a preseason pinball machine. Here is why this line has value - on Oakland. Tennessee proved in a convincing fashion that they can move the ball on the ground. So how are they entering week two? Are they saying to themselves that since they can run the ball 40 times and win, that they should stick with that forumla? No! This is preseason and that's why it is, in fact, the exact opposite. We believe they are instead going to work on the passing game this week. So what happened last week will not be a factor here in the game, but it is in the line. The fact is Vince Young was 3 for 6 for 17 yards, and overall the Titans QB trio hit just 50% for a paltry six yards per attempt. Jeff Fisher is no fool and he realizes they have to find a passing game or teams will line up eight in the box when the season starts, and the offense will be turning the ball over to the punting game. So we expect Fisher to shift gears here and work on his passing game more. Oakland kept San Francisco out of the end-zone last week, so the points won't be lighting up this week for Tennessee as they did last week. This line shows tremendous value, as the false expectations of game two for Tennessee were created by game one, and we expect a different game and different outcome.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Kevin Francis Guaranteed Selections  

5000* DIAMOND DOMINATOR BASEBALL WINNER
Tampa Bay w/Shields -135 

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Insiders Sports Network Guaranteed Selections

INSIDERS NETWORK HOME RUN WINNER
Pittsburgh w/Snell -120 

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

mvbski wrote:


JEFFERSONSPORTS

NFL EARLY RELEASE
EAGLES-2.5 1st half

MLB EARLY RELEASE
Detroit-165
Tampa Bay-125
Houston-155

Adding

Mets-148

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Players of America

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Florida Marlins
The Play: Florida Marlins -110.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

Its nice to see it took the Tigers 8 innings and two outs to even waltz out of the dug out on Wednesday night-a late rally falls short. Thank God for the rain delay in Detroit because we don't know about you, but it would have been very, very difficult to watch that team play a complete, 9 inning ball game, nonstopped. Its evident that Leyland and his team have virtually given up on this season, and it truly is a shame with the amount of talent and unlimited capability on that roster. One swing of the bat loses that game for us. A day off Wednesday in an attempt to rebound gone bad. We're crawling out of this slump sooner than later-guaranteed, and our season to date records assure us of that. In any sense, live and learn...on to Thursday's card where we'll keep firing...

It really feels like Vegas is up in the air on this one, and unsure of where to place the line. At 7:10PM EST, the Florida Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals. The fish come in thirsty for a victory here, and their going to get it. Scott Olsen is the scheduled starter for Florida and he comes in at 6-7 overall with an ERA right around 4.00. His opponent's statistics are virtually the same. Scotty has actually pitched well his last three starts, but has little run support to give him victories. He's accumulated just a 3.58 ERA in those last three starts, along with a WHIP of 1.25. The Marlins are 1-2 this season against this Cardinals squad, and we look for them to even things up right here on a very short-posted spread.

St. Louis is putting Todd Wellemeyer on the mound. Todd comes in 9-5 overall with an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.28. His numbers are very similar to Scott Olsen's, despite pitching 13 less innings. The Cardinals are 5-5 in their last ten games. Both of these teams need wins at this point in the season, and simply put...Florida at this price at home is a gift.

The Marlins take care of business tonight, and in convincing fashion. The price is right and we'll be laying 10 units on Florida to get the job done at home.

TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Cardinals are 1-9 in their last 10 Thursday games.
- The Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss.

Florida 6, St. Louis 2


Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
The Play: Atlanta Braves +140.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

Our next and final selection today comes from Atlanta. The Braves host the red hot Chicago Cubs at 7:10PM EST. There is some big time value on the home doggie in this one, and we're leaning on the Braves for a worthy wager. Atlanta comes in disappointing to say the least. They are ten games shy of the even mark. However, they have been playing "better" baseball as of late. The Cubs on the other hand are America's favorite team, winning games left and right. All the bandwagoners are packed tightly aboard that ship.

The left handed veteran Tom Glavine will start for the Braves. Tom comes in just 2-3 on the season with an ERA of 4.85. We know, you might say "Wow, that's pretty high" and it is. Pitching isn't going to determine the outcome of this one, though. Glavine and the Braves might not be worldbeaters, but this is baseball and any team is capable of going out and putting together a darn good game on any given night. Atlanta is winless against this ball club on the season, but tonight they earn their first victory.

The Cubs will start the lefty Ted Lilly. Ted comes in at a solid 11-6 overall, but his ERA, too is approaching 4.50. He's given up nearly 150 hits in 148 innings. Chicago is pretty sure that their stuff don't stink right now, but a wake up call is coming loud and clear tonight. Good teams lose and bad teams win in this sport. Spotting value and exploiting it is the key to success.

With that being said, give us Atlanta, who is 110% fully capable of winning this game, at a nice size dog for 10 units.

Atlanta 7, Chicago 4

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Sports Advisors

NFL PRESEASON

Pittsburgh (1-0 SU and ATS) vs. Buffalo (0-1, 1-0 ATS), at Toronto

The Steelers, who added Byron Leftwich to their quarterback stable this week after losing back Charlie Batch (broken collarbone) in their exhibition opener, meet up with the Bills in a rare exhibition game at the Rogers Centre in Toronto.

Pittsburgh topped the Eagles 16-10 as a one-point home underdog last week, improving to 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS under second-year coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers – who managed just 189 yards of total offense in the victory, including 71 passing yards – went 3-0 (2-1 ATS) on the highway last August.

Buffalo got outgained155-67 on the ground in falling 17-14 at Washington in Week 1, but cashed as a 5½-point road underdog. The Bills, who are the designated home team for this game which is being played just north of Buffalo, are 3-6 in the preseason under third-year coach Dick Jauron (5-4 ATS). On the bright side, with last week’s spread-cover against the Redskins, Buffalo is now 6-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2005 preseason and 9-2-1 ATS as an exhibition pup since 2003.

Starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who attempted (and completed) two passes in the game against the Eagles, is expected to play at least the first quarter for the Steelers, with Leftwich – a former starter for the Jaguars – coming on in the second quarter. Rookie Dennis Dixon is expected to start the second half, followed possibly by fellow rookie Mike Potts.

Despite completing just 1 of 5 passes last week, Trent Edwards will start at QB for the Bills, followed by J.P. Losman, Gilbran Hamdan and Matt Baker. With an offensive line beset by injuries, Jauron indicated that Edwards and the rest of the starters would not see much more playing time than they did last week, when the first-team offense took just nine snaps.

The under is 9-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 preseason games, including 5-0 in the last five on the road. Also, the under is 10-3 in Buffalo’s last 13 preseason outings since 2003.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and UNDER


Carolina (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (0-1 SU and ATS)

The Panthers head to Lincoln Financial Field for Week 2 of the preseason to take on the Eagles.

Carolina had a 14-3 lead over the Colts after the first quarter on Saturday, but needed overtime to put away Indy 23-20, coming up short as a four-point home chalk. The Panthers, who rolled up 441 total yards (209 rushing) in the victory, are 1-4 ATS in the preseason dating to the start of last year. However, since 2003, they’re 8-2 SU on the road in preseason play and 6-1 ATS as a preseason pup. In fact, since coach John Fox came on board, the Panthers are 8-3 ATS as a ‘dog in August.

Philadelphia went off as a one-point favorite at Pittsburgh on Friday, but lost 16-10, producing just 61 rushing yards while allowing 118 on the ground. The Eagles are now 8-14 SU and 10-12 ATS in August dating to 2005, including 1-4 SU and ATS going back to last year. However, they are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four preseason home games, and since 2004, they are 6-1 ATS in preseason play following a SU loss.

QB Jake Delhomme, whose only pass attempt last week was incomplete, will start for the Panthers, followed by Matt Moore, Brett Basanez and Lester Ricard. However, Fox indicated his first-team offense will not see substantial action until Carolina’s Week 3 preseason game against Washington. Wideouts Steve Smith (concussion) and Dwayne Jarrett (leg) aren’t expected to play tonight.

Donovan McNabb, who went 10 of 13 for 97 yards and a TD last week, is expected to play the entire first half for the Eagles, along with the rest of the offensive starters, Reid said. McNabb will give way to veteran backup A.J. Feeley, followed by Kevin Kolb. On the injury front for Philly, RB Brian Westbrook is battling a viral infection, so Correll Buckhalter will likely get the start.

These teams met in Week 2 of the preseason last year, with the Eagles rolling to a 27-10 victory as a three-point home favorite.

The over is 4-2 in Carolina’s last six preseason road games, but the under is 3-1 in Philadelphia’s last four August home contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA


NATIONAL LEAGUE

St. Louis (67-56) at Florida (63-58)

Todd Wellemeyer (9-4, 4.01 ERA) takes the ball for the Cardinals as they wrap up a four-game set against the Marlins, who will counter with southpaw Scott Olsen (6-7, 4.04) at Dolphin Stadium.

The teams have alternated wins and losses in the first three games of this series, with St. Louis prevailing 6-4 on Wednesday. Both squads have seen their playoff hopes slip a bit with their recent middling play – the Cards are 6-7 in their last 13 games and the Marlins are 11-12 in their last 23 contests. In addition, St. Louis is 6-13 in its last 19 games against winning teams, 1-9 in its last 10 Thursday outings and 3-7 in Wellemeyer’s last 10 starts. Florida, meanwhile, has lost in Olsen’s last four starts but is on an 18-8 run at home against winning teams.

This is the first series between St. Louis and Florida in 2008. However, the Cardinals have owned this rivalry in recent years, winning 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and eight of the last 10 in South Beach.

The Cardinals have alternated wins and losses in Wellemeyer’s last six starts, with the right-hander going 2-0 with four no-decisions. On Saturday against the Cubs, he was sharp, yielding all three runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 12-3 road rout.

Olsen is 0-3 with one no-decision in his last four starts, getting the loss in Saturday’s 8-6 road loss to the Mets. In that outing, he gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings, the second time in his last four starts that he’s allowed five or more runs.

Wellemeyer is 3-0 with a 3.36 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and he’s 0-0 with a bloated 7.36 ERA in three career appearances (no starts) against Florida. Olsen is 4-4 with 2.91 ERA in 14 home starts this year, and he’s 1-2 with an inflated 7.00 ERA in three career starts against St. Louis.

For St. Louis, the over is on streaks of 12-5-1 overall, 11-3-1 on the road and 8-3-1 versus the N.L. East. The over is also 11-5 in Olsen’s last 16 starts and 4-1-1 in Wellemeyer’s last six outings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Philadelphia (64-56) at L.A. Dodgers (61-59)

The Dodgers hand the ball to Hiroki Kuroda (6-8, 4.02 ERA) as they look to sweep this four-game home series against the Phillies, who will start Brett Myers (5-9, 5.09).

Los Angeles rallied to beat Philadelphia for the second straight night Wednesday, coming back from a 6-1 deficit to win 7-6 on a walk-off Nomar Garciaparra home run in the ninth to move into a first-place tie with Arizona atop the N.L. West standings. The Dodgers are on streaks of 11-3 at home and 7-0 against the N.L. East. The Phillies, meanwhile, have dropped five of its last seven games to fall back into a first-place tie with the Mets in the N.L. East.

The Dodgers have won five in row in this rivalry are 5-1 in the last six clashes in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 2-4 in Kuroda’s last six starts. On Saturday at San Francisco, the right-hander threw eight solid innings, allowing one run on eight hits, but the bullpen couldn’t make it stand up in a 3-2 loss.

The Phillies, who had lost six in a row behind Myers, have won in his last three starts, including a 4-2 home win Saturday over Pittsburgh. In that game, the right-hander allowed one run on five hits in 7 2/3 innings.

Kuroda is 4-1 with a 3.29 ERA in 10 home starts this season, and the first-year major leaguer will be making his first start against Philadelphia. Myers is 1-6 with a 6.61 ERA in 12 road starts this year, but he’s 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) against Los Angeles. 

For Los Angeles, the under is on streaks of 8-4-1 overall, 27-13-1 at Dodger Stadium and 10-4 in Kuroda’s last 14 starts. The under is also 5-2-1 in Philadelphia’s last eight games. However, the over is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings between these teams and 8-0-2 in the past 10 battles at Dodger Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Plus10Club

Ethan Law 
Pick: Braves / Cubs OVER 9.5   

Opposite Action Plays   
Pick: PITTSBURGH PIRATES

JB Sports  > Get more Picks 
Pick: BUFFALO BILLS +3

Sunday Selections   
Pick: BUFFALO BILLS 

LT Profits 
Pick: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -3       

Mike Rose   
Pick: Orioles / Indians OVER 11 9MLB: 7:05 ET)   

Rocketman Sports     
Pick: ARIZONA D'BACKS

Alex Smart     
Pick: Stelers / Bills UNDER 33

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

MLB Total of the Month - 53-30 Run

Balt/Cleveland Over 10.5

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

KELSO

High Rollers Club

10 units - St. Louis

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Sports Pro Unlimited

5* Boston -1.5 -125 POD
5* Fla -115
5* NYM -148

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Root

Chairman- StL Cardinals
Millionaire- Bills
Money Maker- Cubs

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Matty O'Shea

NFL Total Play O' the Day

PHI / CAR Over 35.5

We saw what happened with the Panthers last week, as they got off to a very fast start and had 20 points by halftime. They only scored three points in the second half - which was good enough for a 23-20 win - but still proved they are taking the preseason seriously. Meanwhile, word in Philadelphia is that the Eagles will play their starters the entire first half of this game in hopes of doubling their point total from their preseason opener. This should also set up perfectly for the second half, as Philly will still have quality players in the game with a solid chance to score. Take the OVER as my Single Dime NFL Total Play O' the Day.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Charlies Sports

Carolina +3½ (500*)

Steelers @ Bills Over 33 (30*)

Pittsburgh-125 (20*)

Florida -120 (20*)

Dodgers -130 (10*)

Buffalo +2 (10*) free play

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