SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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WILD BILL

Washington-Brewers Over 8½ (5 units)
SF-LA Dodgers Under 7 (5 units)
Cubs-ST L Under 8½ to 10 runs (5 units)
Cleveland -135 (5 units)
Angels -140 (5 units)
Tampa -125 (5 units)
Pirates +210 (5 units)

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JOHN RYAN

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play Over

Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Philadelphia/Pittsburgh ? AiS shows a 71% probability that 10 or more run swill be scored in this game. Pirates in a strong OVER position noting they are 22-11 OVER (+11.1 Units) in road games versus teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 14-5 OVER (+8.7 Units) in road games versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. Philly bats will come alive today in the bright afternoon sunshine noting they are 13-4 OVER (+8.8 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 46% to 49% in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER

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DUNKEL

Washington at Milwaukee   
The Nats have been handcuffed by C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets in the first two contests, but look to take advantage of a struggling Manny Parra, who is 1-3 with a 4.82 ERA over his last six outings.  Washington is the underdog pick (+185) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored straight up by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Washington (+185).   Here are all of today's games.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 10

Game 951-952: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 16.300; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.237
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+145); Over

Game 953-954: Houston at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.936; Cincinnati (Harang) 13.981
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+105); Over

Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Davis) 15.459; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.093
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 10
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+220); Under

Game 957-958: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.516; Milwaukee (Parra) 14.698
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+185); Over

Game 959-960: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Young) 15.022; Colorado (Hernandez) 13.912
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 11
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); Over

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.876; San Francisco (Cain) 13.997
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120); Under

Game 963-964: Atlanta at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hampton) 14.782; Arizona (Webb) 14.490
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-245); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+225); Over

Game 965-966: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.354; Cubs (Dempster) 15.489
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+145); N/A

Game 967-968: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Smith) 13.047; Detroit (Robertson) 14.843
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Over

Game 969-970: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lee) 14.695; Toronto (Richmond) 15.465
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Under

Game 971-972: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 14.464; Baltimore (Waters) 16.329
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145); Under

Game 973-974: Boston at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.455; White Sox (Floyd) 15.587
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+120); Over

Game 975-976: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.539; Kansas City (Meche) 14.312
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Under

Game 977-978: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.489; LA Angels (Saunders) 17.166
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Under

Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Jackson) 15.282; Seattle (Dickey) 16.360
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Over

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TOM STRYKER

Cleveland / Toronto
Play: Cleveland

It's going to be difficult to pass up Cleveland starter Cliff Lee at this cheap price.

A quick look at the history books shows that Lee has struggled against Toronto in his career posting a dismal 0-3 mark with a lofty 5.01 ERA in six meetings. That fact is noted. Thankfully, Cliff has been at his best on foreign soil and another solid performance is expected. As a guest this season, the former Arkansas Razorback has been nicked for only 27 earned runs and 87 hits in 90.2 innings of work. That adds up to a solid 9-2 record and a nifty 2.68 ERA! Overall, Lee has tossed 153.2 frames and carries a blistering 15-2 mark with a ridiculous 2.58 ERA!

Toronto will try and counter with rookie Scott Richmond who will be making the third start of his career. In his first two outings against Oakland and Tampa Bay (two teams that were struggling offensively at the time), Richmond was racked for six earned runs and 14 hits in 11.0 innings of work. That adds up to a lofty 4.91 ERA! That's not going to be good enough against Cleveland's hard-hitting lineup.

Quietly, the Indians have cashed 22 of their last 29 in this series and 10 of their last 13 on foreign soil with Lee on the mound. The experience on the mound is too juicy to pass up here. Take Cleveland.

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Sportsbettingstats

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

In yesterdays match up between these two long time rivals the Cardinals beat up on the Cubs beating them 12-3. The Cubs have the best record in the NL and lead the NL Central by 4 games over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals are in 3rd place in the NL Central 6 games back of the Cubbies. In their last 10 games the Cubs are 7-3 and the Cardinals are 5-5. For most of the year the Cardinals were, at least, leading the NL Wild Card race, but now are 2 games back of the Brewers for the last NL playoff spot. Taking the mound for the Cubs is Ryan Dempster (12-5 2.93 ERA), who has been solid for the Cubs all year and in his last outing gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings in a loss. In yesterdays loss to the Cardinals the Cubs scored 3 runs on 8 hits and left 6 men on base. Taking the mound for the Cardinals is Chris Carpenter (0-0 1.00 ERA), who in his last outing went 5 innings giving up 0 earned runs in a no decision. In their crushing of the Cubs yesterday the Cardinals scored 12 runs on 16 hits and left 5 men on base.

Staff Pick: Yesterday's win may be the spark that the Cardinals need to make a push for the last playoff spot, as beating the 1st place Cubs and their Ace Carlos Zambrano is a step in the right direction. However, the Cubs have All Star Dempster on the mound, while Carpenter is looking for his first win since last September, as this game will only be his second start since coming off reconstructive elbow surgery. Dempser is in a bit of a slump, as he won his first 10 starts at Wrigley Field, but is 0-3 in his last 3 starts at the friendly confines. It is not completely his fault, as he has not had a lot of run support in those starts and his ERA over those starts is a respectable 3.57. Dempster is 2-4 with a 5.66 ERA in 8 starts lifetime versus the Cardinals. The Cubbies are rolling right now and the big battle in the division is for 2nd place and the Wild Card. Carpenter will have a tall task of beating a Cubs team that has scored the most runs on the NL (618). Look for Dempster to have a good start and for the Cubs to finally give him some run support at home. Carpenter is a solid pitcher and the Cardinals are glad to have him back, but he will not get his 1st win of the season tonight, as the Cubs will win and increase their lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central.

Cubs 9 Cardinals 4

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Jeff Scott Sports 

3 UNIT PLAY

PHILADELPHIA RL (-103) over Pittsburgh

The Phils are 6-1 in their last 7 at home vs the Pirates, with all 6 wins being by 2 runs or more. The Pirates are sending a career reliver to the mound to take on this solid Phillies offense. Jamie moyer gets the ball for the Phils and he has been solid this year, plus he is 1-0 with an 0.00 ERA in his lone career home start vs the Pirates. NY and Florida are breathing down the Phils necks, so look for them to come out swinging and get another easy win.


2 UNIT PLAY

Baltimore/ Texas Over 10.5

The Texas offense has to breakout of their slump sometime right? I say it's today, while the O's offense should get plenty of their own. So far I'm 0-1-1 picking the Over in this series. 3rd times a charm.


1 UNIT PLAY

DETROIT -143 over Oakland

Both teams come in struggling, but the A's are 5-19 in their last 24 road games and Greg Smith comes in with an 0-4 mark and a 6.74 ERA in his last 4 starts. Nate Robertson does have a 9.64 ERA in his last 3 starts, but an 0-0 record due to the fact that the Tigers have scored 9 rpg for him over that stretch. Nate may struggle a bit here, but I feel the offense will carry them again and get another win over the hapless A's.

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Iron Horse

10* Favorite GOM

LA Angels

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Astros/Reds UNDER 9.5

The Under is 10-2-1 in Harang's last 13 starts vs. National League Central, 10-3-1 in Harang's last 14 home starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 9-4 in Harang's last 13 Sunday starts.  The Under is 7-2-2 in Rodriguez's last 11 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 6-2-1 in Rodriguez's last 9 starts vs. National League Central, and 5-2 in Rodriguez's last 7 starts as an underdog.  I like the Under here as we see a pitcher's duel between two quality hurlers.

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Dennis Macklin

Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays

If you haven't already put a fork in the Jays, you might want to now. After giving Roy Halladay no help AGAIN in yesterday's 4-2 loss, the Jays are already looking to next year as Cito Gaston was announced to return in 2009. Toronto has the misfortune to catch Cliff Lee and his 15-2 and 2.58 resume here for the 50-64 Tribe. Don't see light hitting homies doing any damage here so we'll back the ASG starter in his Cy Young Award run.

Play on: Cleveland

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox

We see the White Sox gaining the series advantage in this battle of American League contenders as Boston starter Clay Buchholz is 0-5 on the road this season with a 7.68 ERA. Overall, Boston has lost 10 of his 13 starts in 2008. Meanwhile, the White Sox Gavin Floyd is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA at home. His team is a very strong 13-3 at home in day games this year, so that's who we're taking.

Play on: Chicago White Sox

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Tony Karpinski

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals    
Play: Minnesota Twins 

Break out the brooms today in KC, as Minnesota just owns this Kansas City club this year. With their win last night, Minnesota is 7-1 in games played at Kansas City, and 9-2 overall in the season series. You want more domination? The Twins are 18-9 at Kauffman Stadium since 2006, and 30-18 overall versus the Royals in that same span.

Baker will go against Meche, and while Baker has been hit hard of late, he has turned in some solid numbers against Kansas City, winning his last 4 starts against them, allowing just 7 runs in 30 innings of work. Gotta stick with the Minnesota momentum today.

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Steven Budin

25 DIME PLAY

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

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ANTHONY CAPONE

MINNESOTA TWINS  vs KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Play: MINNESOTA TWINS -110

There is not much to be said about this play so I will keep it as simple as possible . As much respect as I have for the talented Gil Meche there are just some teams that can't beat other teams.This is the case in this series as the Twins own the Royals . Gil Meche has lost to the Twins 3 of the last 4 times he has faced them . The last 2 years the Twins have a (14-5) record vs KC , and have won 5 straight and 7 of the last 8 in this series .Scott Baker has pitched very well this season goung (7-3) with a 3.86 ERA .Meche has been lights out his last 3, but it's not going to do him much good here as he has lost to the twice this year already . Twins Win !

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Larry Ness

NL Game of the week 15*

LA Dodgers


Las Vegas Insider

Chicago White Sox

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Tom Freese

Los Angeles at San Francisco

Los Angeles is 5-0 their last 5 Sunday games and they are 4-0 their last 4 games when playing Game 3 of a series. The Dodgers are 7-2 in the last 9 starts made by Chad Billingsley as a favorite and they are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. losing teams. San Francisco is 12-26 their last 38 home games and they are 4-22 their last 26 games as home dogs. The Giants are 7-19 when starter Matt Cain faces a division rival and they are 10-27 with Cain if he is off a quality start. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES

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Craig Trapp

Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds   

Today take CIN over HOU. Pitching for CIN is Harang. He is coming off the DL to make his first start today. Look for him to give them a boost and win one here. Harang has won his last six decisions against the Astros, posting a 3.00 ERA in that seven-start stretch. He's 8-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 17 career starts against Houston. Score CIN 4 - HOU 2!

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Brian Gabrielle

Take Tony Stewart (+450), 1/6th unit. This week, we hit the series' second and final road-course event, in Watkins Glen. Stewart has won three of the past four races at this track and has four victories here overall in his nine tries at the Glen. Now, you could make the argument that the No. 20 team isn't the same since Stewart announced he's leaving Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of the season, and many fans have reported hearing Tony the Tiger and his crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, cursing one another out during races on their radio channel. But last week at Pocono, Stewart finished a solid second and started to look like his old self again. If he's going to win a race this year, it might just have to be this Sunday's.

Take Robby Gordon (+1000), 1/6th unit. Gordon has finished in the top five at Watkins Glen in five of the past six seasons, including one win. There's no question he's pretty much a hanger-on at just about every other track style on the Sprint Cup circuit, but at road courses, he' has to be considered a favorite. Ride him this week.

Take Kyle Busch (+800), 1/6th unit. Normally, I wouldn't think of taking the Shrub at a road course, but considering the way he went through the field at Sonoma like crap through a goose, it's a wise bettor who respects the younger Busch at all track types this season. Yeah, he's coming off a crummy effort at Pocono, but that's just about the only track where he's struggled this year. Sonoma excellence doesn't always translate to greatness at Watkins Glen, but I'm willing to take that chance.

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ROSS BENJAMIN

Boston @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -125 (15*)

The Boston starter Buchholz has gone 1-7 in his team starts on the road this season with a terrible 7.68 ERA. In spite of winning on Saturday the Red Sox are a suprisingly bad 17-37 in their last 54 on the road versus a team with a winning percentage of better than .500. The White Sox starter Floyd has been a terrific 10-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his 2008 home team starts. Floyd is 7-0 in his last 7 team starts when pitching on 4 days rest. Chicago has been a very profitable 37-15 in their last 52 games as a favorite. Play on the Chicago White Sox as my 15* AL Game of the Week.

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BIG AL

MAJOR LEAGUE UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR!

At 2:10pm our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Minnesota Twins. 29-year-old righthander Gil Meche is finally putting up the kind of numbers that Kansas City hoped he would when it signed him as an expensive (for the Royals) free agent from the Mariners after the 2006 season. Meche has now won his last four starts and has a 1.71 ERA during that stretch, numbers that would match him up with just about any elite starter in the league. And Meche certainly also has the capability to blow batters away, occassionally putting up double-digit strikeouts. Meche is looking for some payback against the Twins as he had back-to-back starts against them in the beginning of April, and did not fare very well in either. But last season, Meche had a lot of success against the Twins, posting a 3.05 ERA in three starts against them. 26-year-old righthander Scott Baker will get the start for Minnesota and Baker really struggled in his last start against the Mariners, an outing that was perhaps his worst of the year when he gave up nine hits and six earned runs in slightly more than five innings. In 2008, Baker's road ERA is nearly two runs higher than his ERA in Minneapolis (4.68 vs. 2.83), and that won't help him any this afternoon at Kauffman Stadium. As of this writing (at midnight, Saturday night), the Twins are favored -120 at Olympic; -114 at CRIS; -115 at the Hilton; and -120 at the Mirage. From my perspective, the wrong team is favored in this one, and there's great value with Kansas City. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if others recognize the value here, and the line moves toward the Royals tomorrow. But regardless of whether KC is an underdog (as they are now) or even a slight favorite, it's a solid bet. MLB Underdog of the Year on the Royals.

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Cleveland Indians -135

Cleveland goes for the road sweep today behind the 15-2 Cliff Lee and I like them to get it.  The Indians are a dominant 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in this series, 10-3 in Lee's last 13 road starts, 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts with 5 days of rest, and 23-9 in Lee's last 32 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Blue Jays won't be able to hold down the Tribe behind inexperienced starter Scott Richmond.  Put your money on the best pitcher in baseball today.

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