SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS

SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Mikey Sports

St Louis @ Chicago Cubs 
Play On: St Louis


PURE LOCK

HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI 
PLAY ON: HOUSTON


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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Cincinnati

The Reds close out their four-game series with the Astros when Aaron Harang takes on Wandy Rodriguez in the Queen City. Harang makes his first appearance off the Disabled List sporting a 3.88 ERA at home as opposed to a 6.17 ERA on the road this season. Conversely, Rodriguez's 4.82 road ERA is more than a run and a half worse than his 3.31 home ERA this season. Look for Harang to improve to 6-0 in his last six home starts in August here today.

Play On: Colorado w/Hernandez
Note: Hernandez makes debut with Rockies knowing his home ERA (4.26) ERA this season is nearly three full runs better than his road ERA (7.22).

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Gator Report

MLB 70% Super Situations:

MLB Sunday: Play Against MLB home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, 73-23 SU since 1997 (76%)

PLAY: Cleveland Indians -135
   
   
MLB Top Angles

MLB Sunday: Milwaukee is 21-3 SU against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Sunday: Washington is 1-13 SU against the money line in road games versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season this season.

MLB Sunday: San Diego is 4-18 SU against the money line versus a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.

MLB Sunday: Cain (SF) is 5-20 SU against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record).

MLB Sunday: Detroit is 7-24 SU against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.

MLB Sunday: Boston is 3-13 SU against the money line in road games versus teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season.

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Jimmy The Moose

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Over

These two team's love playing the over when they meet up. The over is 12-3 in the Yankees last 15 games. The over is 9-3 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-2 in Pettittes last 9 games as underdog. Over his last 3 starts his ERA is 8.27 and all 3 games played over the total. The Yankees played over the total in his last 3 starts vs. the Angels. LA has played the over in 6 of their last 7 games. The over is 5-1 in their last 6 home games. The over is 3-0 in Saunders last 3 starts. The over is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 trips to LA and the over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings overall between the clubs. Play the over.

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SCOTT FERRALL

BASEBALL LOCKS FOR SUNDAY
   
Florida +140 at Shea over Pelfrey and the Mets

Washington +165 at Milwaukee--Upset special here with Lannan topping Parra at Miller Park

Colorado (even odds) over SD at Coors--Livan Hernandez wins in a surprise ocer Chris Young

SF +110 and Matt Cain over Billingsley in the Bay--I like the chance and the price

St.Louis and Carpenter knock off Dempster and the Cubs at Wrigley at +130

Texas +130 at Baltimore--Harrison over Waters at Camden


BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR SUNDAY
   
TB-SEATT OVER 9 RUNS

NY-ANGELS UNDER 9 RUNS

MINN-KC UNDER 8.5 RUNS

BOS-CHISOX OVER 10.5 RUNS

TEX-BALT OVER 10.5 RUNS

CLEVE-TOR UNDER 8.5 RUNS

OAK-DET OVER 9.5 RUNS

ATL-ARIZ UNDER 9 RUNS

LA-SF OVER 7 RUNS

SD-COLO UNDER 10.5 RUNS

WASH-MILW UNDER 8.5 RUNS

PITT-PHILLY OVER 10 RUNS

HOUS-CINCY UNDER 9.5 RUNS

FLA-NY METS OVER 9 RUNS


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR SUNDAY
   
Seattle +125 over TB--RA Dickey pulls one out of his ass at home over the Rays and Edwin Jackson

Pettitte +120 and the Bombers at Anaheim against the Angels and Joe Saunders--Yanks finally win one on the trip

Boston +115 at ChiSox--Clay Buchholz comes through for Ferrall against Gavin Floyd--and you know nobody will have action on the struggling R Sox starter, especially on the road.  I've got big nuts on this one

Toronto +130 in a shocker over Cliff Lee of the Tribe, who never loses.  I say he finally has a rough outing

Atlanta +200 at Arizona--Come on Hampton--win for once you big pussy.  All the lumber will be on Brandon Webb, but we're looking for a fat payout and some luck here

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Karl Garrett

Florida at NY METS -150 

Today I am going with a high-scoring affair at Shea as the Marlins and Mets conclude their 3-game series.

Last night's game was an easy OVER between the teams, as they combined for 14 runs.

I know Johnson, and Pelfrey have been pretty tough on the batters of late, but with a whopping 5 home runs hit in last night's affair, and both bullpens streched, the G-Man has a feeling that both starters are going to be exiting this game before the 6th inning.

These teams have met 11 times this year, and are on an 8-2-1 OVER run.

G-Man has to play the percentages, and go with the OVER in this game.

3♦ OVER

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Bobby Maxwell

San Diego at COLORADO

Even though they lost Saturday, the Rockies have won three of the last four meetings with the Padres and wrap up a series at Coors Field in Colorado today with southpaw Jorge DeLaRosa (5-6, 6.55 ERA) on the mound against San Diego's Chris Young (4-4, 4.06).

The Rockies have won 11 of the last 16 meetings with San Diego and DeLaRosa is 4-1 with a 5.60 ERA at home this season. He's allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts and the Rockies have won those three. On Tuesday he held the Nationals to two runs in seven innings of an 8-2 victory, the Rockies' third straight with him on the hill at home.

Young is making his third start since coming back from a broken nose that happened when Albert Pujols lined a ball off his face. On Tuesday in New York he gave up two runs in 5.1 innings but the Padres lost 6-5. He's only allowed those two runs in 10.1 innings since his return but San Diego has lost both starts.

San Diego is just 10-23 in their last 33 road games agaisnt teams with a winning home record and they are just 17-35 in their last 52 games overall.

Colorado is 13-6 in their last 19 home games and 6-1 in DeLaRosa's last seven in Coors. Play the Rockies today to improve on that.

4♦ COLORADO

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Minnesota -115 at KANSAS CITY 

Break out the brooms today in KC, as Minnesota just owns this Kansas City club.

With their win last night, Minnesota is 7-1 in games played at Kansas City, and 9-2 overall in the season series. You want more domination? The Twins are 18-9 at Kauffman Stadium since 2006, and 30-18 overall versus the Royals in that same span.

Baker will go against Meche, and while Baker has been hit hard of late, he has turned in some solid numbers against Kansas City, winning his last 4 starts against them, allowing just 7 runs in 30 innings of work.

Gil Meche will go for Kansas City, and Meche has certainly been rolling with wins in his last 4 starts, but the Twins have been able to beat Meche in both of his starts against them this year, scoring 11 runs in 12 frames of work.

Gotta stick with the Minnesota momentum today.

Play on the Twins to break out the broom.

4♦ MINNESOTA

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Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

At 1:15 pm our member selection is on the the Cincinnati Reds over the Houston Astros. 30 year-old righthanded veteran and Reds' strikeout artist Aaron Harang will be activated from the disabled list today in order to make his comeback start in this game. It will be Harang's first start since July 8 when he went down with a forearm strain. But this game is much less about Harang's comeback than it is about another righthanded strikeout pitcher on this roster: Edinson Volquez. Volquez looked like an early season favorite for the NL Cy Young award, but lately he has been getting rocked and something is clearly wrong with either his mechanics or conditioning. So the Reds want to get skip Volquez this time around which will give him two days off and allow him to face the Pirates when that series begins on Tuesday in Pittsburgh. With the Reds in last place and out of the hunt for the postseason, Cincy management doesn't want to do anything to risk the health of what could be a very potent rotation in 2009, so it wants to be very careful with Volquez. The Reds likely will also be careful with Harang and monitor his pitch count closely, but this looks like a great comeback spot for him. Prior to his injury, Harang had been pretty effective at home (3.88 ERA) and although he hasn't faced the Astros yet in '08, he was dominant against them last season winning two of three starts with an ERA of 3.32. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez goes for the 'Stros, and he has really struggled lately and things may not get any better for him this afternoon as the Reds are hitting 25 points higher vs. lefties than righties (.264 vs. .239). Take Cincy.

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PRO INFO SPORTS

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Prediction: UNDER 8.5

The Twins will send Scott Baker to the bump with his 7-3 record and 3.86 ERA. He has struggled over his last three outings but the site of the Royals lineup should be a welcome one as he is 4-2 with an ERA of only 2.98 and a WHIP of 0.869. Baker has also seen the "Under" cash at a perfect 7-0 in his seven starts versus the Royals.

The Royals will send starter Gil Meche to the hill with his 10-9 record and 4.11 ERA. Over his last three outings he has been solid posting a 3-0 record and an ERA of only 1.80. Meche is 6-5 versus the Twins but he has also been an "Under" pitcher in this series with a 9-5 Under record. Meche is 21-9 Under when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons (Team's Record).

The Twins are 4-0 Under versus the AL Central and 39-19-2 Under their last 60 during Game Three of a series. The Royals are 38-15-1 Under their last 54 when installed as a home underdog, 11-4 Under their last 15 versus a team with a winning record, 40-19-1 Under when facing a right-handed starter and Meche is 16-6 Under his last 22 as an underdog.

This series has been an "Under" series no matter who takes the hill as they are 36-17-2 Under the last 55 meetings overall. We will also get help from behind home-plate as umpire Bob Davidson is 4-1 Under his last 5 when KC is involved and 16-5-1 Under his last 22 overall from behind home-plate.

Our Pitcher Power Index Ratings have Baker allowing the Royals to score 2.3 runs while Meche gets touched for only 2.9 runs. Our Team Power Index Ratings also signal and "Under" selection in today's contest with a final score of Minnesota 3 and Kansas City 1.

PREDICTION: 2* MINNESOTA / KANSAS CITY UNDER 8.5

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Tony Stevens

NEW YORK YANKEES +120

COLORADO ROCKIES +111

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Jim Feist

YANKEES / ANGELS OVER

With all the pitching problems that have befallen the Yankees, it's no wonder they've become an over the total machine. The offense is still strong, but the pitching has been overworked with too few quality arms. The result is a 10-1 run over the total! Starter Andy Pettitte has looked old of late, with an ERA over 8 the last 3 starts. The Angels offense has really picked up since the All Star break, going 8-4 over the total. Starter Joe Saunders has been terrific, but he has struggled against the Bronx bombers with an ERA over 10. Look for plenty of offense play the Yankees / Angels over the total!

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Dave Cokin

SAN DIEGO PADRES

If Chris Young had any ill effects from that drive to the face that knocked him out of action for an extended period, I'm sure not seeing it. Young has been mostly unhittable in his two starts back from the DL and I expect him to have more success against the Rockies on Sunday. A rare call for a road win by the Padres.

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Bob Harvey

INDIANS / BLUE JAYS UNDER 8½

The first two games of this series have dipped UNDER the total and there are strong indications this will be low scoring as well. 15-game winner Cliff Lee gets the start for Cleveland Lee bounced back nicely after giving up a season high-tying six runs in five innings July 30, when he helped to squander an 8-1 lead in Cleveland's 14-12, 13-inning loss to Detroit. Despite that outing, Lee is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA over his last five starts. Toronto counters with Scott Richmond who gave up three runs in 5 2-3 innings of Toronto's 4-3 win over the Athletics on Tuesday, six days after falling 3-2 in his major league debut against Tampa Bay. Richmond has been solid if not spectacular and against a questionable Indians offense, he should keep it close. Go low today with Toronto and Cleveland. Good Luck.

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Matt Rivers

DETROIT TIGERS

Nate Robertson certainly can be sketchy at times and it is never the greatest thing to lay some coin with the lefty and especially the way Jim Leyland's team has underachieved but the A's are dreadful with the bats and therefore I'll give Detroit a go here as they will plate some runs. Many more times than not the powerful righthanded laden Tigers smack around southpaws and that easily can be the case here. Greg Smith has been pretty good this season but facing Ordonez, Cabrera, Sheffield, Granderson and the potential of this Detroit lineup equals death more times than not. I do admit that it's the A's who definitely boast the better bullpen with Ziegler, Street, Casilla and others and may even have the better starter but if you back Leyland's squad against lefties you are going to be successful a lot of the time. It's tough trusting this 2008 version of the Tigers as they have not done what has been expected but they have an immense upside against lefties and I'm following that logic here!

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Tony Weston

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1½

So far in this weekend series the Brewers haven’t allowed any runs to the Nats, having outscored them, on average, 5.5-0. Also consider that over these teams last five meetings the Brewers are 4-1 and have outscored Washington by an average of 5.2-2.4. Also keep in mind that in this five-game stretch the Nationals have scored more than three runs only once. You also want to remember that Washington is only 2-3 its last five games and is 3-9 its last 12 games on the road. In that 12-game stretch the Nats have been outscored 4.4-2.6 on average per game. Washington has been horrible away from home and won’t even come close to hanging with the Brewers. Go with Brewers Run Line on this one day.

3♦ MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1½

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Jeff Benton

ST LOUIS CARDINALS

Obviously, Ryan Dempster has been a beast for Chicago at home this season. However, former St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter has looked very good in his first two starts since coming back after a 16-month layoff following major arm surgery. And to get him at this kind of a plus-price against a team he’s had a lot of success against in his career is too good to pass up. Carpenter is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cubs, including 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last eight outings against Chicago going back to the start of the 2005 season. So far in his two games this year, Carpenter has allowed just one run on eight hits in nine innings of work (1.00 ERA), walking just two and striking out four. On Tuesday against the Dodgers, he needed just 51 pitches to get through five innings before a lengthy rain delay forced him from the game. As for Dempster, he’s been dynamite pretty much all year. However, after going 11-0 in his first 11 starts at Wrigley Field, the Cubs have lost Dempster’s last three to the Giants (4-2), Marlins (3-2) and Astros (2-0). I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see loss No. 4 in a row come tonight in another low-scoring affair. Take a shot with the Redbirds.

3♦ ST LOUIS CARDINALS

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Carlo Campanella

Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland ends up a small road Favorites here as they start Lee on the mound in Toronto on Sunday. With Cleveland leading this series 4-1 yjis year, we'll back this road chalk knowing that Lee is an awesome 11-2 against fellow A.L. teams with a team batting average below .265% this season! Total pitching mismatch as he faces Scott Richmond, who's been shelled for a combined 6 Earned Runs in his last 11 Innings Pitched.

7* Play On Cleveland

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR SUNDAY
CLEVELAND-133
LA ANGELS-125

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Florida (61-56) at N.Y. Mets (62-54)

Red-hot Mike Pelfrey (10-7, 3.85 ERA) leads the Mets against Josh Johnson (2-0, 3.34) and the Marlins as these two N.L. East rivals wrap up a three-game series at Shea Stadium. New York has taken the first two games by scores of 3-0 and 8-6, moving to 4-1 in its last five. The Mets are on further runs of 15-3 at home, 7-1 on Sunday and 10-1 with Pelfrey starting.

Florida has dropped four of its last six to drop into third pace in the N.L. East, a half-game behind New York. On the bright side, the Marlins are 5-0 in Johnson’s five starts this season and 7-2 in his last nine road starts.

New York has won eight of 11 meetings with Florida this season, but the Mets are 0-4 in Pelfrey’s last four starts against the Fish.

Pelfrey has been on a tear the last two months, going 8-1 with two no-decisions (both Mets wins), while posting a 3.15 ERA along the way. On Tuesday against San Diego, he yielded two runs on nine hits in 6 2/3 innings in a 6-5 victory, the Mets’ sixth straight home win behind Pelfrey.

The 24-year-old Johnson, whose first outing of the season came a month ago after his comeback from elbow surgery, has earned two straight wins. On Tuesday at Philadelphia, he threw six shutout innings of five-hit ball in an 8-2 rout.

Pelfrey is 6-4 with a 2.29 ERA in 12 home starts this season, but he’s 1-3 with an inflated 6.39 ERA in five career starts against Florida. Johnson is 1-0 with a 2.76 ERA in three road starts this year and 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in four career appearances against New York.

In this rivalry, the over is on runs of 15-3-2 overall, 7-1-2 at Shea Stadium and 4-1 with Pelfrey facing Florida. For New York, the over streaks include 11-2-2 against right-handers and 7-0-2 with Pelfrey facing winning teams. Finally, the over is 29-11-5 in Floriday’s last 45 road games and 9-3 in Johnson’s last 12 starts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER


St. Louis (65-54) at Chicago Cubs (70-47)

The streaking Cubs send Ryan Dempster (12-5, 2.93 ERA) to the hill at Wrigley Field to wrap up a three-game set against the N.L. Central rival Cardinals and Chris Carpenter (0-0, 1.00).

The teams split the first two games, with Chicago winning 3-2 in 10 innings Friday and St. Louis cruising 12-3 Saturday. Chicago remains on a 10-3 overall tear and is on additional runs of 6-1 against winning teams, 10-3 in division play and 12-3 behind Dempster at home.

Despite yesterday’s win, the Cardinals have still dropped four of their last seven and they’re in the midst of further funks of 1-5 inside the division and 4-11 against winning teams. In addition, the Cubs have owned this rivalry lately, winning 16 of the last 21 clashes, including four of the last six at Wrigley.

Dempster, who at one point was 10-0 at home this year, has gone 0-2 with a no-decision (also a Cubs loss) in his last three outings at Wrigley. On Monday against Houston, he yielded two runs on five hits in five innings but departed after a lengthy rain delay and got no offensive support in a 2-0 loss.

Carpenter, the 2005 N.L. Cy Young winner, missed all of last season after having elbow surgery and is making just his third start since coming back July 30. On Tuesday against the Dodgers, he threw five shutout innings, allowing three hits and no walks but got a no-decision in a 6-4 Cardinals win. Like Dempster, Carpenter was forced from his last outing after a long rain delay.

Dempster is 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 14 home starts this year, but 4-5 with a 5.09 ERA in 34 career appearances (eight starts) against St. Louis. Carpenter has just one road start this season, getting a no-decision in a 7-2 win over Atlanta, and he’s 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 career starts against Chicago.

The under is 8-1 in Dempster’s last nine home starts and has cashed in four of the last six in this rivalry, but the over for St. Louis is on streaks of 10-3-1 overall, 9-1-1 on the highway and 11-1-1 facing righties on the road.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (67-50) at Chicago White Sox (64-51)

The White Sox give the ball to Gavin Floyd (11-6, 3.66 ERA) for the third game of a four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field against the Red Sox, who will counter with Clay Buchholz (2-7, 5.94). The teams have split the first two games, with Boston winning 6-2 on Saturday. The White Sox are 38-18 at home this year, and they are on runs of 21-10 against right-handed starters and 10-3 in Floyd’s last 13 starts.

Boston has won six of its last eight games, but the Red Sox are still on slides of 17-37 on the road against winning teams, 1-8 when Buchholz works on the road and 1-6 overall behind Buchholz.

This is the first series of the year between these two teams, but Boston is 8-1 in the last nine contests going back to 2007, including 5-1 in Chicago.

The White Sox are 3-0 in Floyd’s last three starts, although the right-hander did get roughed up a bit Tuesday against Detroit, allowing five runs on eight hits in four innings and getting a no-decision as the Sox scored four runs in the 14th inning to rally for a 10-8 home win. Chicago is 7-1 in Floyd’s last eight starts at U.S. Cellular.

Buchholz hasn’t gotten a win since May 2, and he’s 0-4 with a no-decision since returning from a minor-league stint July 11. On Monday at Kansas City, he allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings of a 4-3 loss, Boston’s sixth setback in Buchholz’s last seven trips to the hill.

Floyd is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 home starts this season, and this will be 25-year-old’s first start against Boston – though he does have one relief appearance, giving up four runs on four hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 10-1 home loss last year. Buchholz, meanwhile, is 0-5 with a bloated 7.68 ERA in eight road starts this year, and this will be the 23-year-old’s first career appearance against Chicago.

The first two games in this series have stayed under the total, snapping “over” streaks of 7-0 overall in this rivalry and 6-0 in six meetings in Chicago. Still, the over for the White Sox is on runs of 16-6-1 overall, 4-0 with Floyd starting and 6-1-1 in Floyd’s last eight outings at U.S. Cellular. Finally, the over has cashed in four of Buchholz’s last five road starts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO WHITE SOX and OVER

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