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Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

PRO INFO SPORTS

2 STAR SELECTION (2.5% of Bankroll)

Dallas +3 over SAN DIEGO

"America's Team" will be on road Saturday night when they face the Chargers in the preseason opener for both teams. Dallas will be taking the field following a headline-grabbing offseason. Shortly after the 2007 season, owner Jerry Jones managed to retain offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, who was being courted as head coach by multiple NFL teams. Garrett was given a pay raise and assigned the title of assistant head coach in Big D, moves that are seen as exerting pressure on head coach Wade Phillips.

From a personnel standpoint, Dallas made a splash by trading for troubled cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones, also drafting running back Felix Jones to push Marion Barber atop the depth chart at that position. Barber and other key starters such as quarterback Tony Romo and wide receiver Terrell Owens are expected to see only limited time on Saturday, in keeping with first-game-of-preseason tradition; however, it will be quite a bit more than the Chargers' best player, LaDainian Tomlinson, who won't see any action.

Compared to Dallas, San Diego experienced a decidedly tranquil offseason. After finishing 11-5 and advancing to the AFC Championship last January, Norv Turner's club experienced precious little roster or coaching turnover, and is the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC West once again. On the injury front for the Chargers, wideout Vincent Jackson, tight end Antonio Gates, and center Nick Hardwick are among the players who will not see action against Dallas. With "LT" and others out, it gives us the opportunity to play AGAINST a team that will not have key starters playing against an opponent not resting its key players. Some coaches don't see any need to risk undue injury during the exhibition season to those players whom he already knows will be starters, which is the case for Turner and San Diego.

Wade Phillips should certainly have his team ready to go here, as coaches on the hot seat want to get off to a good start, and Phillips was an assistant in San Diego from 2004-06, installing the team's 3-4 defense. One of our NFLX coaching strategies is to play ON a team with a new head coach or assistant that was previously with his new team's current opponent. This situation is especially strong if the coach left with a bitter taste in his mouth and/or his new team is an underdog. These coaches know their ex-team and ex-players very well, and if the schemes they left behind are still in tact, they will have a a huge gameplanning edge. While this is Phillips second year in Dallas, he will still be looking to make a stament with his team against San Diego.

Finally, in looking at some numbers, we note that Dallas is 13-3 SU & ATS vs. the AFC, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog vs. the AFC. On the other hand, Norv Turner is an ugly 3-8-2 ATS as an NFLX home favorite and 8-16 ATS overall in his last 6 NFL preseasons. The Chargers haven't fared well in NFLX openers, going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Game 1s. We look for the 'Boys to make the most of their trip out West here and hold off a listless home team just wanting to avoid any serious injuries.

PROJECTED FINAL MARGIN: DALLAS BY 4 OVER SAN DIEGO

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Yankee Capper

5 Units - Kansas City Royals (+110)
5 Units - Milwaukee Brewers (-240)
4 Units - Los Angeles Angels (-150)
4 Units - Colorado Rockies (-175)
2 Units - Pittsburgh Pirates (+200)
2 Units - Cleveland Indians (+200)

NFL

5 Units - Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
4 Units - Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
3 Units - Washington Redskins -3.5
3 Units - Carolina Panthers -4
3 Units - San Diego Chargers -3
3 Units - Denver Broncos +3
3 Units - Tennessee Titans -3

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Weekend Wipeout Winner NFL-X

STL/TEN Over 33

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mvbski wrote:


Jeffersonsports

NFL
Colts+4

MLB
Houston+120

Adding

Detroit-190

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ATS Lock

6 units Jax -3.5
4 units Tampa Bay +2.5

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Bob Harvey

Take Jacksonville Jags and Atlanta Falcons OVER 34

The Jags have been one of the higher scoring teams in the preseason playing 3-1 to the high side under coach Jack Del Rio. They?ve scored at least 20 points in nine of their last twelve preseason ballgames, including a pair of 31 point outbursts in their two preseason home games last season.

The Falcons should put some points on the board as well. Look for rookie QB Matt Ryan to be better than expected tonight while Atlanta has some veteran back-ups who should "sting" the 3rd and 4th team defenses. This should be an easy OVER tonight.


Saturday HONORABLE MENTIONS

San Diego/Dallas UNDER 36

Miami -1 over Tampa Bay

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Oscarxena Sports

Seattle +1.24 (3 Unit Play)

The Mariners have called up Ryan Rowland-Smith for this start from Triple A Tacoma and he was sent down to stretch out for this start. Smith started three games for Tacoma and went 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and he pitched 18 2/3 innings so he is capable of going deep into this game. He has not started in his career against the Rays. The Rays will give the ball to Matt Garza and so far on the year he has a 5.13 ERA on the road and he pitches much better at home. Garza has allowed 11 of his 13 home runs on the road and in fact he has struggled against the Mariners in his career going 1-1 with a 9.75 ERA. Tonight's HP umpire is Mike Winters and so far this year the home team has won 15 out of 23 games. It is an ugly underdog here but I like the Mariners this evening.


Philadelphia -1 1/2 Runs -1.14 (3 Unit Play)

I am not a big fan of run lines but I like the Phillies here today. Brett Myers will be on the mound for the Phillies and he has pitched better at home all year despite suffering through a tough campaign so far. Myers has been tough lately as well going 1-0 in his last three starts with a 2.50 ERA and although his career record against the Pirates is 2-4 he has a 3.00 ERA in those starts. The Pirates will have Ian Snell on the mound and he has just completely lost what he was doing from last year as his road ERA this year is 8.18 and his recent outings show that he is still in a funk. He will be facing a Phillies lineup that is struggling but this is not an uncommon thing for the Phillies this year and I expect them to put up some runs in this game against Snell. Today's HP umpire is Marvin Hudson who has went 15-9 for the home team this year and Myers has worked three games with Hudson and went 3-0 in those starts while Snell is only 2-2 with Hudson behind home plate. Take the Phillies to win by at least two runs here today.


Florida/NY Mets Over 9 1/2 -1.09 (3 Unit Play)

The Marlins will have Scott Olsen on the mound tonight and his road ERA is 5.37 and he struggles with his control on the road as he has struck out 21 batters while walking 22. Olsen has also faired poorly against the NY Mets as he is 1-3 in his career with a 4.14 ERA but eight of his 10 starts have went Over the total. The Mets have called up Brian Stokes from Triple A New Orleans and his stats are not that great as he went 10-8 but has a 4.41 ERA. I am not sure he will be able to contain the potent Florida lineup this evening. Neither pitcher has had an appearance with tonight's HP umpire Fieldin Culbreth and although he has went Under a couple more times this year I am going to take this one Over the total.

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LT Profits

2* Chicago White Sox

2* Oakland A's

2* KC Royals

2* Falcons +3

2* Colts +4

2* Rams +3

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Mike Rose

5* Marlins/Mets over 9.5

3* Houston Astros

2* TB Bucs +3

2* Colts +4

5* Cowboys/Chargers under 35.5

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Ben Burns

4* Dodgers/Giants under 8.5

4* Cowboys/Chargers under 35.5

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Bob Akmens

10* Cincinnati Reds 30*on his site

4* Jaguars -3.5

4* Panthers -4

4* Texans -3

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