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TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Rangers/Yankees Under 11.5 (POD)
Pettitte had a 15+ era in his last start at home against the Angels, giving up 11 hits and 9 runs in just over 5 innings, he hasn't faced Texas this year, the Yankees lost to a walk-off grandslam against the Rangers who looked to have their closer blow it for them only to come back and win by 4 runs, I like Pettitte on the bounce-back today similar to Lee, we're able to get good value considering that Pettitte is on the road and the Yankees are on a bounce-back here as well, note that Harrison to is on a bounce-back and another Ranger game at home went over, having said that, this might be the first under in quite a long time in a Texas home game, lean on the under here as the juice on Pettitte on the road is ridiculous. I also think the Harrison kid shows up to pitch against the Yankees at home as he is in desperate need of a bounce-back as well.
At some point, you have to buck the trend and say enough is enough and this line is inflated enough to take the other side. You have 2 pitchers on the bounce-back and a game in which Pettitte pitches that is over 11.5 a total, frankly, yesterday's game should have gone under at 5-4, but did not, the under is 7-1-1 for Pettitte when the total is set this high and he typically shows up against the Rangers as the total is 5-1-1 to the under when he pitches against Texas.
Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch GOW (51-33 MLB run since Jun 30 / 177-91 two-year GOW run)
This is a HUGE week for the Florida Marlins. They trail the Phillies by 2 1/2 games in the NL East and are a half-game up on the Mets. They open a three-game series tonight in Philly and then head to Shea Stadium for a three-game set with the Mets, over the weekend. The Marlins have been able to score consistently on the road in '08 (5.23 RPG) but the team's pitching staff has "let them down," allowing 5.09 RPG (team is 26-27). Getting the call tonight is Josh Johnson, who was terrific back in 2006 for Florida, going 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 31 appearances (24 starts). However, he made just four starts last year (0-3 with a 7.47 ERA) before facing reconstructive elbow surgery in August. He had been rehabbing for most of '08 but returned to the majors on July 10. He was respectable in his first three starts as the Marlins won each time, although he got three no-decisions. In his most recent outing (last Weds), he went 6.2 innings allowing eight hits and four ERs in a 7-5 win over the Mets, marking his first win in the majors since August of '06! Johnson's comeback is quite a story (team is 4-0 in his starts since his return / 4.19 ERA) but he's "up against it" here. The Phillies, who enter this game having won SEVEN of their last eight, will send 240-game winner Jamie Moyer to the mound. Moyer is 10-6 with a 3.79 ERA in 22 starts this year (team is 13-9) but it's his total domination of the Marlins that's the story in this one! Moyer came to Philadelphia (from Seattle) in August of '06 and made eight starts the rest of the way. Three of the eight came against the Marlins and he won all three. He then faced Florida four times in '07, again winning each outing. So far in 2008, he's faced the Marlins three more times and you guessed it, he's 3-0. That leaves him a perfect 10-0 in 10 career starts vs Florida (all since late 2006), while posting a 3.03 ERA. There's not much else to say. I guess his domination over the Marlins has to end sometime but I sure don't want to be the one trying to guess when! Pitching Mismatch of the Week 15* Phi Phillies.
Larry Ness' Superstar Triple Play (won NINE of L13 weeks in MLB!)
My three STPs are on the TB Rays,the Cin Reds and the Min Twins.
When the Brewers beat the Astros 6-4 on July 26, they were tied for first in the NL Central. However, Milwaukee has dropped SEVEN of nine games since, to fall five games back of the Cubs. Most observers will remember that the Brewers led the Central by as many as 8 1/2 games last year, before being caught by the Cubs, who went on to take the Central by two games. Is Milwaukee headed for a similar fate in '08? It sure looks like it and one can't imagine that last night's "shoving match" between Manny Parra and Prince Fielder in the dugout, will be good for team morale. Manager Ned Yost had planned to rotate his No. 5 starters, using McClung on the road and Bush at home but he's since decided to go exclusively with Bush. This will be Bush's first road start since July 30 and the Brewers are 1-7 in his previous eight road starts this year (7.11 ERA). So what else is new? The Brewers were 6-10 in his road starts last year (6.14 ERA) and 4-13 in '06 (5.38 ERA). It's hard to imagine Bush being very confident for this start, as he's been just terrible in his career at Cincinnati (0-2 with a 14.24 ERA in five starts), all part of his career 1-3 mark vs the Reds, posting an 8.38 ERA in eight lifetime starts (team is 2-6). The Reds entered last night's game having lost EIGHT of their previous nine games, including all three games at pathetic Washington over the weekend. However, the Reds should find Bush to their liking tonight plus have Edinson Volquez on the mound. It's hard to ignore that Volquez has "come back to earth" after his super start in '08 but he's still got great 'stuff.' Volquez is 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA on the season and is 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA in 11 starts at home (team is 7-4). He's faced the Brewers just once this year (at Milwaukee on July 12), beating them 8-2 by going seven innings while allowing six hits, one ER and striking out 10. STP on the Cin Reds.
The Indians won 96 games last year and were "one win away" from a World series appearance. As for Tampa, the then-Devil Rays (now Rays) finished in last-place for the NINTH time in the franchise's 10 years in '07, with a record of 66-96. What a difference a year makes. The Indians are the last-place club this year at 49-62 (AL Central), while the Rays sit atop the AL East (66-45), three games ahead of the defending champs (Boston). However, one thing hasn't changed in '08 and that's Tampa's inability to beat Cleveland. The Indians swept a four-game series from the Rays in Cleveland right before the break and the took last night's game in Tampa behind Cliff Lee, 5-2. That makes it FIVE straight wins for the Indians over Tampa and 20 wins in their last 22 games vs the Rays. All that said, I'm calling for a Tampa win tonight. Fausto Carmona (5-3, 4.19 ERA) will get the start for Cleveland and last year's 19-8 (3.06 ERA) record seems like a distant memory. He spent more than two months on the DL this year and then struggled in his July 26 return (home to Minnesota), allowing nine ERs in 2.1 innings of an 11-4 loss. However, he did pick up first victory since May 12 last Thursday, allowing five hits and four runs (two earned) over 6.1 innings of a 9-4 win over the slumping Tigers. Let's remember though, that the Rays are 43-17 at home (plus-$2,092) and that includes a terrific 32-9 mark when facing right-handers! Edwin Jackson (7-7, 4.20 ERA) has not faced the Indians this year but was solid against them in three starts last year (18 IP / 6 ERs / 3.00 ERA), despite Cleveland winning all three games. Jackson is off two straight wins (3.60 ERA) and has allowed three ERs or less in SIX of his last seven starts. Let's also remember that he's facing a Cleveland team which owns an AL-worst 20-36 road mark and has lost more money on the road (minus-$1,541) than any team but the Braves! STP on the TB Rays.
The Twins fought their way to the top of the AL Central by winning on Sunday, coupled with a White Sox loss at KC (team was a ML-best 28-13 during that span). However, the Twins "couldn't stand their success," blowing a 6-0 lead last night in Seattle. Minnesota led 6-1 entering last night's 7th-inning but fell victim to a 10-run Seattle inning, as Raul Ibanez's hit a grand slam, as well as driving in six runs. The Twins enter this game at 62-50 (.554) and the White Sox, who host the Tigers, are 61-49 (.555). As for the Mariners, they are a pathetic 43-69, having lost more money (minus-$2,590) than any team in MLB save the Padres. The team's 22-34 home mark is slightly better than that of the Giants (21-34), but the Mariners are MLB's biggest "money-burners" at home, at minus-$1,805. I'm looking for the Twins to shrug off last night's loss and bounce back behind Scott Baker (7-3, 3.53 ERA). Baker was on the DL from early May through early June and when he returned, pitched well without anything to show for it. Despite a solid 3.00 ERA in his first three starts off the DL, he was 0-2 as the Twins went 0-3. However, he's 5-1 with a 3.35 ERA over his last eight starts (team is 6-2) and faces a Seattle team which is only 31-47 vs right-handers in '08, including 11-17 while averaging just 3.4 RPG in home night games against righties. Opposing Baker will be RA Dickey, who spent his first five season with the Rangers (16-19 with a 5.72 ERA in 77 appearances, including 33 starts). Dickey is 3-6 with a 4.41 ERA in 19 appearances (10 starts) with the Mariners this year but just looking at his 10 starts, one finds him 2-6 (team is 3-7) with a 5.56 ERA. In five home starts, he' s 0-4 (team is 1-4) with a 7.61 ERA. Minnesota has no trouble bouncing back here. STP on the Min Twins.