TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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Ron Raymond

5* MLB O/U GAME OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Indian/Tampa Bay Rays Under 9

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Wunderdog

Game: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Pick: 3 units Cincinnati -123

Edinson Volquez has had a breakout season for the Reds and has not allowed more than three runs in a game but three times on the season covering 23 starts. He is 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA, and in Cy Young contention for a team that hasn't been very effective this season, but have been pretty good at home at 31-25. Dave Bush has been the weakest link on the Brewers’ staff this season and the road has really been an issue. The Brewers are just 1-8 in his nine road starts and getting pounded by a total of 55-27. The opponents have scored at least six runs in eight of the nine starts. Since Volquez hasn't given up six in a game all season, we have to like the Reds here.


Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis
Pick: 4 units St. Louis -106

One thing is for sure and that is you'd never get Chris Carpenter and the Cards at home for basically even money before his Tommy John surgery last April. The fact that Carpenter threw 67 pitches and allowed just one run over four innings, and had no setbacks says this guy is ready to be himself again and soon. The Cards are 27-10 over his last 37 home starts and we'll take the odds makers hedge that he isn't Chris Carpenter yet, and say that he is. St. Louis has been a difficult stop for Los Angeles over the past three years as they have gone just 2-7 here and have been outscored in the process 59-17 or by almost five runs a game. We will back the Cards in the opener at home.


Game: Pittsburgh at Arizona
Pick: 2 units Pittsburgh +244

Sometimes you have to look at the odds on a game and make a decision if the value pendulum has swung to the extreme enough to push the value in line of the huge underdog. We have an opportunity here to back such a situation. Brandon Webb has been a top pitcher for several years, but the home record of teams in his starts has been just 34-21 for 61.8% over the last four years, while it would take 71% in this price range to breakeven. This is a classic letdown situation for the D-Backs. They are fat and happy right now - maybe overconfident. They have Webb on the mound (coming off four straight wins), they have their lead over the Dodgers in the division, they are facing a struggling pitcher, and they are coming off a comfortable 13-7 win in game one. How can they not let down here? Pittsburgh has the offense to stay in this one, especially if Arizona bats take the day off. Webb, as good as he has been is actually just 9-28 in post All-Star play vs. teams that score 4.8+ runs per game. We will give the Pirates a go here, as the odds are longer than their true value by a fairly significant margin

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -140

Moyer is a beacon of consistency in the home favorite position at 112-49 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher since 1997.Moyer is also a rock solid 20-6 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.The Phillies have won their last 5 against their division and they are a perfect 10-0 in Moyer's last 10 starts vs. the Marlins.Take Philly tonight.

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MR A


Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels

The Baltimore Orioles have lost five of the last six meetings versus the Los Angeles Angels and six of its last seven at Angel Stadium.

Baltimore's Chris Waters (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his major league debut. The southpaw went 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 18 games, including 16 starts with Triple-A Norfolk.

Los Angeles' Jon Garland (10-6, 4.30 ERA) is 2-0 with a 5.00 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 7-2 with a 4.40 ERS in 11 career outings, including 9 starts versus the Orioles

Take the Angels at home with Jon Garland on the mound. Los Angeles has taken 11 of the last 14 games against Baltimore played at Angel Stadium and right-hander Garland has won his last six starts against them, 2-0 with a 4.05 ERA this season.

Los Angeles Angels -200

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BEN BURNS

PHI (-155) vs FLA

Give the Marlins credit, as they've managed to hang around in the playoff race for a lot longer than most people would have expected. They're in tough tonight though. They just dropped two of three vs. the Rockies, including a disheartening loss on Sunday, which saw them blow a lead which they held for most of the game. Now they travel to Philadelphia to face a red hot Phillies team which has won seven of eight games. Making matters worse, they're up against a pitcher who they've never beaten.

In 10 career starts against the Marlins, Jamie Moyer has gone a perfect 10-0. All 10 of those starts came as a member of Philadelphia and the Phillies won by a combined score of 63-27. Moyer had a 3.03 ERA in those games with an outstanding 0.98 WHIP. Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge had this to say about Moyer's dominance of the Marlins: "He's such a good pitcher, sometimes he can use a team's aggressiveness against them. Florida has a very aggressive team - they hit a lot of home runs. Jamie's style matches up good against them. He's such a master of what he's doing, he can see what they're swinging at and move it a couple of inches." Moyer will be opposed by Josh Johnson, who's coming off his first win since August of 2006. While Johnson has been relatively solid for the Marlins, he's still only made two road starts. He has a 4.36 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in those games and has averaged just 5.2 innings per start. Nothing too impressive about that. He also has a poor 4.64 ERA in five career appearances against the Phillies. Look for Moyer to continue his series dominance as the Phillies remain red hot and pad their lead in the East. *Annihilator*


CIN (-124) vs MIL

I won with the Reds yesterday and I feel that they provide us with excellent value again today. Volquez is 13-3 as a starter (13-4 overall) with an excellent 2.74 ERA. That's significantly better than Bush's 5-9 record and 4.73 ERA in his 19 starts. That doesn't tell the whole story about Bush though. To get a better idea about Bush we need to look more closely at his stats.

For starters, Bush really prefers to pitch during the day. In five daytime starts, he's 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA. On the other hand, in 15 night appearances (14 starts) he's gone 2-7 with a 5.18 ERA. His home/road numbers are even more revealing. In 11 home starts, Bush is 4-3 with a solid 3.30 ERA. However, in eight road starts he's 1-6 (Brewers are 1-7) with a brutal 7.11 ERA. This isn't just a one-year fluke either. Last season, he had a 4.26 ERA at home but a 6.14 ERA on the road. In 2006, he was 9-4 with a 3.53 ERA and but 3-7 with a 5.38 ERA on the road. You get the idea.

In addition to his problems on the road, Bush has really struggled vs. the Reds. Indeed, in eight career starts vs. Cincinnati, all of them as a member of the Brewers, he's gone 1-3 with an awful 8.38 ERA and 1.862 WHIP. Not surprisingly, Milwaukee lost the last five of those games, going 2-6 overall. The Brewers are 0-5 in Bush's five starts at Cincinnati losing by a combined score of 51-26. In those games, Bush allowed 29 earned runs in just 18 1/3 innings. That's a 14.24 ERA! Meanwhile, Volquez was dominant in his lone start against the Brewers, which came just a few weeks ago. In that game, Volquez allowed just one run through 7 1/3 innings, striking out 10, en route to a 8-2 Milwaukee win. Look for Volquez to get the better of Bush as the Reds hand the Brewers their third straight loss.


TEX / 921 NYY UNDER 11.5

It's true that both these teams can put up plenty of runs. We saw that last night, as the series opener sailed above the total. The betting public was all over the 'over' in that game and they'll be favoring the over again. That has helped caused the over/under line for tonight's game to be significantly higher, which I feel has provided us with excellent value. It's important to note that last night's game featured a pair of right-handed starters. However, tonight's game features a pair of southpaw starters.

Pettitte gets the call for the visitors and he's seen the UNDER go 8-2 his last 10 starts and a highly profitable 17-6 on the season, including 9-2 on the road. Note that he has a excellent 3.50 ERA in those 11 road starts. Pettitte has also seen the UNDER go 7-2-1 his last 10 starts against Texas. Harrison goes for Texas and his numbers admittedly aren't too great. However, he has shown flashes of real potential, like when he held the best team in the league (Angels) to just two runs through seven innings, en route to a 3-2 Texas victory. Note that he'll have the advantage of facing the Yankees for the first time.

The Rangers entered last night's game with an impressive .302 average against right-handed starters while scoring a whopping 6.2 runs per game. Conversely, they enter tonight's game averaging just 4.6 vs. left-handed starters with a .265 average. The Yankees entered last night's game hitting .275 against right-handers, while averaging exactly five runs per game. However, they enter tonight's game averaging 4.4 runs vs. left-handers with a .264 batting average. They've seen the UNDER go 6-1 their last seven games against southpaw starters with ALL seven of those games producing 11 runs or less. Looking back further and we find the UNDER is 20-12-1 against southpaws this season and a highly profitable 67-48-6 the past three years. Look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again with the final combined score falling beneath the inflated number.

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Larry Ness

Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Over 8

The Giants beat the Braves 4-2 last night for their third win in their last four games, despite scoring a total of just 10 runs. Prior to this little mini-streak, the Giants had been shut out in back-to-back games by the Dodgers in LA (last Tuesday and Wednesday) and going back to July 24, have plated just 25 runs in their last 11 games (that includes a 7-6 win at LA on July 28). Anyway, the Giant bats just may make some 'noise' tonight against Atlanta's Mike Hampton. Hampton had Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2005 season and has endured several injuries since then. He made his first start in nearly three years on July 26, allowing eight hits and six ERs (four innings) in a 10-9 loss to the Phillies (no decision). He then allowed seven hits and four ERs (five innings) in Atlanta's 9-4 with over the Cards on July 31 (another no-decision). Jonathan Sanchez will take the mound for San Fran and the lefty was pretty good for quite some time this year for the Giants (team won 13 of his first 17 starts). However, his good pitching seems to be a thing of the past, as he's 0-3 with an 8.57 ERA over his last five starts (SF is 0-5). Take the Over.

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Stephen Nover

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
PICK: New York Yankees

Rangers lefty Matt Harrison shouldn't even be in the majors unless you think a 7.40 ERA is good. Harrison has allowed 31 hits in 24 1/3 innings. He's walked 14 and struck out just four. He wasn't that effective, or any kind of strikeout pitcher, when he was in Double and Triple A. He doesn't have a good bullpen to bail him out either.

The Yankees have the offense to take advantage. Their right-handed bats are more respectable now with Xavier Nady and Ivan Rodriguez added to the lineup.

Andy Pettitte is off maybe his worst start of the season. The lefty gave up nine runs and 10 hits in just 5 1/3 innings against the Angels on Thursday. Pettite has a strong bounce back history. That should be the case here.

The Rangers are 12-22 versus southpaws compared to 47-32 against right-handers. Texas is batting .260 against lefties, while hitting .290 versus right-handers.

Prior to his poor start against the Angels, Pettitte was 7-2 in his last nine starts with a 2.11 ERA. The Yankees were able to rest Mariano Rivera last night. So he's available in the unlikely case he's even needed.

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Frank Rosenthal

903 FISH+140 SB
907 PADRES+150 SB
910 CARDS UNDER 8 SB
915 BRAVES OVER 8 SB+
921 YANKS-155 SB
OVER 11 SB+
926 CWS-140 SB
929 TWINS-135 SB

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The Duke's Sports

Cincinnati (-120) for 2 Units

Brewers/Reds 7:10: The Brewers' Dave Bush has been shaky on the road (7.11 ERA) and should struggle in this spot; after all, Bush sports a bloated 8.38 ERA in four lifetime starts vs the Reds. The Reds counter with Edinson Volquez who pitches well at home. Volquez controls a 6-1 mark with a 3.34 ERA at home for Cincy. He also threw well at Milwaukee July, 8, 2008 - allowing just 1 ER in 7 innings. We'll look for Volquez to regain form tonight vs Milwaukee.

ChiSox (-139) [Floyd over Robertson] for 1 Unit

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Big AL

Atlanta Braves / San Francisco Giants Over

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TONY STEVENS

MILWAUKEE BREWERS 

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5

TORONTO BLUE JAYS -1.5

COLORADO ROCKIES -1.5

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -138

The White Sox will come together after their brawl against the Royals two days ago.  After a day off, look for Chicago to be ready to roll at home tonight against the Tigers.  The White Sox are 30-19 in their last 49 meetings with Detroit and 13-8 in their last 21 home meetings.  Gavin Floyd is 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA lifetime against the Tigers.  The White Sox are 6-1 in Floyd’s 7 starts against Detroit.  Floyd is 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA at home in 2008.  Nate Robertson is winless through his last three starts with a terrible 14.30 ERA.  Robertson has given up 18 earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched.  Floyd is the White Sox’ stopper this year.  Floyd is 8-1 following a team loss and 7-0 following 2 consecutive team losses this year.  Floyd brings his best stuff when his team needs him most.  Cash in with the White Sox as the favorite.

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Stan Sharp

Triple Dime Bet

Tampa Bay

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Oscarxena Sports

St. Louis +1.08 (3 Unit Play)

The Dodgers are 24-28 on the road this year and they are road favorites against the Cardinals today - HUH! I understand that Chad Billingsley has been pitching very well and that he has a 2.84 ERA on the road this year but in the 22 games that Billingsley has started this year the Dodgers are 11-11. Billingsley has also lost both starts against the Cardinals and he has a 4.50 ERA in those two starts with a 2.20 WHIP. The reason that the Cardinals are underdogs I am sure is based on Chris Carpenter and because he is making only his second start of the year. Carpenter was held to just 67 pitches in his first start against the Braves but he has had ample rest and will slowly begin to build his innings up. Carpenter has pitched very well in his career against the Dodgers going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP. The Cardinals are 31-27 at home which is not a great home record but I trust Carpenter at home and I look for Albert Pujols to be on a mission tonight as he is 0 for his last 10 at bats. The Cardinals are a live home underdog tonight.

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Info Plays

3* on San Francisco Giants -135

Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games.  This is a 58-21 ML System hitting 73.4% over the last 5 seasons.  (+30.8 Units)  $100 bettors have won $3,800 when betting on home favorites in this spot the last 5 years.  Mike Hampton is not the same starter he used to be for Atlanta.  Plus, no Mark Teixeira or Chipper Jones in the lineup clearly makes the Braves a team to fade here.  Bet the Giants at home.

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Chris James

Cincinatti Reds -125

Tuesday brings another dismal day for the Milwaukee Brewers, as they send Dave Bush to the mound, the day after a fight in the dugout between two team mates. The Brewers are sinking and sinking fast and Bush on the mound away from home isn't going to make it any better. Dave Bush is 5-9 with a 4.69 ERA on the year. He is 0-1 against the Reds this year with a 6.75 ERA. In that game he pitched 5.1 innings and gave up 6 hits and 5 runs. Those numbers aren't impressive at all but it doesn't compare to how bad Bush is overall on the road. Bush is 7-22 in his last 29 road starts and 5-22 in his last 27 starts as a road underdog. I wish I could say that all 29 of those games were against top notch teams...but he is 5-17 in his last 22 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. This guy is just awful on the road, no matter who he faces. On the other hand, the Reds send Edinson Volzquez to the mound who is 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA on the year. He has struggled of late posting a 5.87 ERA in his last 3 games. But tonight is the perfect situation for him to get back his confidence. He should have plenty of support from his offense against Bush and it should help him settle in and return to his early season form. Look for the Reds to pick up a much needed win at home!

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KELSO

High Rollers Club 15 units - Twins

Best Bets Club 10 units - White Sox

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PAUL LEINER

25* Tex/NYY Over 11

10* Reds -115

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Players of America

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
The Play: Chicago White Sox -135.0
Star Value: 3* (30 Units)

Right back to how things should be, 2-0 yesterday +22 units. Cleveland led the entire game and cashed with ease and the OVER in Colorado was handed to us early in the game. Time to glance at Tuesday's action...

At 8:10PM EST on Tuesday, the White Sox rise and shine in their own home as they host the divisional rival Detroit Tigers. Chicago comes in after a rest day and a rather shaky performance out in Kansas City along with a lot of chaotic brawling action.

Guillen and the Sox staff elect to put righty Gavin Floyd on the mound to face that explosive line up of the Tigers. Floyd comes in at a solid 11-5 overall with a WHIP of 1.21 and an ERA of 3.43. He's 1-1 his last three outings with a very attractive ERA of just 2.28 in over 19 innings. Gavin is a competitor. If you've ever watched this kid, he loves to win games and he gives it all each and every time out...not something all pitchers do in this league. Gavin simply has Detroit's number. He has faced this squad three times already this season winning each and every match up. Chicago has a slight edge in the heads up battle between these two at 7-5, but don't think these guys don't open up the newspaper every morning and see themselves right next to the Twins. It's a close knit battle for both teams, and both were never expected to be in the position they are now. From a roster standpoint, the White Sox are pretty healthy all the way around with the only injury being Joe Crede who is dealing with a back injury and is listed on the 15 day DL.

The Tigers come into this one and they should be a little scared...especially putting this guy on the mound. Nasty Nate Robertson has been nothing short of a go-off this season. He is incredibly streaky and that's not a good thing against a potent line up like Chicago's. Nate is a meager 6-8 on the year giving up over 165 hits in 127 innings and flaunting a weak ERA of 6.06. Even more eye catching, Robertson HAS A WHIP OF 2.56 AND AN ERA OF 14.29 IN HIS LAST THREE GAMES! This guy has been getting shelled left and right, and we truthfully expect that to carry over in Chicago. Another concern for Detroit comes after Nate finishes his show. The Tigers are without a reliever and a closer as Joel Zumaya is out with a sore shoulder and Todd Jones has been placed on the 15 day DL with tendinitis in his pitching shoulder. Detroit's available bullpen has an averaged ERA of 5.06 tonight, and a WHIP of 1.46 on the season.

Chicago comes out firing on all cylinders. These guys are in a big time hunt in this division and they are going to be a prime time money making team come the post season. We're not backing away from that Detroit offense here. Chicago is just as solid all the way around, and we're willing to put some cash on the line with the Sox Tuesday night. 10 units on the Chicago White Sox as they steam roll the Tigs at home.

TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Tigers are 16-36 in Robertson's last 52 road starts.
- The Tigers are 2-7 in Robertson's last 9 starts versus the White Sox.

Chicago 8, Detroit 2


New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
The Play: New York Yankees -155.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

Next, we're going to jump back on the Yankee train tonight as they play Game #2 of their set with Texas. The Rangers stole one late from New York last night in a shoot out and the Yankees come into this one looking for some revenge...and more importantly, playoff hopes.

Left hander Andy Pettitte will start for New York. Andy comes in at 12-8 on the season with an ERA higher than normal at 4.18. Despite his ERA, his games are commonly low scoring this year. Pettitte is 2-1 in his last three starts. The Yankees pen has been spectacular, even without closer Mariano Rivera as of late. They've got an ERA of just 2.75 in over 200 innings thrown. The Yankee line up is healthy for the most part and waiting to explode tonight.

Matt Harrison gets the ball for Texas. Matt has been a weak spot in this Texas rotation all season at 2-2 so far. His ERA is skyrocketing at 7.40 and his WHIP of 1.85 is a joke too. Harrison is 1-2 in his last three starts with an ERA up over 8.00 in just 14 short innings. The Rangers will be without all-star Milton Bradley tonight as he is listed as doubtful with a quadricep injury.

Neither pitcher has seen their opponent so far on the season, so this one is wide open. We realize the number is relatively high here, so a run line wager would not be a dumb play. HOWEVER, despite the high total on this one...we have a strange feeling it could come down to a run. We're going to go ahead and lay the chalk here with New York on the money line. The Yankees need to get things back on track, and it starts right here in Texas on Tuesday night. Let's lay 10 more units on Andy and the crew.

TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Yankees are 21-7 in their last 28 meetings with Texas.
- The Yankees are 6-2 in Pettitte's last 8 starts versus Texas.

New York 10, Texas 4


Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
The Play: Under 8.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

Our next release takes place in Kansas City at 8:10PM EST. The Red Sox return to the home of the Royals where they lost as big favorites last night, and really struggled to get anything going. We're confident Boston wins this one, but with the inconsistency of these guys on the road lately...we're looking deeper into the match up to pull something out.

Josh Beckett and Brian Bannister are the scheduled starters for tonight's game. Both have been par at best all season long, but both were touted as possible aces for each respective squad in the preseason. Combined, these two have gone UNDER the total 21 times this season, and four of the last six times out too. Boston and KC both have respectable bullpens, and the available heavers are fully capable of keeping games in line and holding on to a lead. These teams have met five times already this season, and the total has a catchy trend of staying UNDER the quoted total four of those games.

With the above being said, something here has to give. This one seems a little high, so we want to throw 10 units on it and put it to the test. Look for a hard fought battle by both sides, with one team squeaking out the win in the late innings.

TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The UNDER is 11-2 in the Royals last 13 overall.
- The UNDER is 4-1 in the Red Sox and Royals last five meetings.

Boston 4, Kansas City 2


Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Play: Under 8.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

There is another attractive total on the board tonight. This one comes to us from the NL where the Cardinals host the Dodgers in St. Louis. First of all, LA loves to play some defense, keeping their match ups under the total 63 times already this season. The Cards, likewise, have done so 53 times.

This is a show for the ages. Two very, very solid pitchers are scheduled to start and we could see both go deep. We bet against Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals last week and he bit us in the butt. He's recouped better than expected from his injuries and really seems to have recovered nicely. Chris will start for St. Louis tonight, and right hander Chad Billingsley for LA.

Chad has thrown 21 games this year. 15 of those games have stayed UNDER the total number. His ERA is impressive at 3.05 and Carpenter comes in at 2.25. This isn't going to be some slugfest like in Texas tonight. The Dodgers bullpen has a combined ERA of 2.92 all season long-one of the best in the majors. STL's isn't that bad either at just over three and a half. These two squads have met up three times this year, each and every game staying wayyyyy under the total with scores like 4-0, 4-3, and 2-1. Nothing changes here...let the trend continue. LA has gone UNDER eight of their last ten heading into tonight's game.

Vegas thinks their adjusting to the trend by setting this line at 8, but it should be lower. This one will be a star-studded event as both pitchers shine. Expect a one or two run game with a late long ball to decide the winner here. We're laying 10 units on this UNDER as well.

TREND OF THE GAME:
- The UNDER is 4-0 in the Dodgers and Cardinals last four meetings.

Los Angeles 2, St. Louis 1

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