MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Indians +113 (POD)
TB won 6-5 yesterday and Cleveland lost 2-6 at Minny, Cliff Lee had a 10.8 era last time out and that is his worst performance of the year, despite that performance his era is still 2.69 and he is 8-2 on the road and 14-2 with a 2.58 era for the season, he went 6 inns and didn't yield a run to TB last time at home, Garza had a great performance his last time out but struggles to put back to back quality starts together, Cle had roughed him up before 12.6 era on the road, so, Ginter looks to bounce-back here against the Indians, at the same time so does Lee, but Ginter has trouble with back to back starts, regardless, the point of taking Lee on a bounce-back is nice and one gets him at a dog price here. I might just close my eyes and do it simply because it is Lee and the Indians did hit Garza for 11 hits in 5 innings, not to mention, I don't think Garza has back to back quality performances in him and the Indians off a loss.
Garza is 1-8 when facing a team with a losing record meaning he struggles against the weaker teams in the league and Lee is 9-3 in his last 12 road starts, I'll take my chances with Lee on the bounce-back as well as the Indians on a bounce-back.
Orioles/Angels Over 9
Dennis Sarfate had a 6.75 era in his first start on the road at New York lasting 4 inns, tough back to back games for the young kid facing the Yankees on the road followed by the Angels on the road, Saunders has pitched 7 straight quality starts, as he is 2-0 over his last 3 starts, and he has defeated Baltimore both times this year 6-5, I favor the run-line here, but remember it will be tough for any pitcher to beat a team 3 times in a row and Baltimore has gotten close twice now, I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go over though as Baltimore is likely to be an active dog.
Long story short here, Baltimore has gotten close twice now in defeating Saunders as they have lost 5-6 and 5-6, given that and the fact Sarfate is a young kid on the road at L.A. who is a solid contact hitting team, the over seems probable here, the over is 11-1 when the Orioles are dogs by this margin meaning they show up well at least on offense when they are such big dogs and the over is 4-0 in Saunders last 4 starts against the Orioles.
Boston is desperately hoping that Bucc bounces-back as he is 0-4 with a 7.98 era on the road, he has not won a game since May 2nd, he has had 6 straight non-quality starts, Meche is 3-0 over his last 5 starts, his team has won the last 6 of 7 of his starts, he had a 2.57 era against Boston last time losing 1-2 which was on the road and last year he had a 1.23 era as his team won 7-1 and that was at home. More than 60% favor Boston here and Meche has been pitching awfully well while Bucc continues to struggle, I'll take the better pitcher at home at this point, besides the KC offense put up 14 runs yesterday and began to show some life so it shows they can clearly hit lack of quality pitches when need be. It does seem that Bucc is getting more and more of his endurance back but I think he is 1 game away still from being back full strength.
Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS
3-Unit Play. Take #951 Milwaukee (-125) over Cincinnati
Wow. A couple tough outings and everyone is jumping off the Manny Parra Train. Not I. The Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 road games and the Reds are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall. Cincy looked a bit shell-shocked over the weekend after losing Ken Griffey Jr. I'm going to play on that. I have no faith in Bronson Arroyo and I think the Brewers - suddenly five games back - play with some urgency today.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #971 Minnesota (-125) over Seattle
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Minnesota at Seattle
Seattle hits lefties and Miguel Batista gets hit by everyone. Sounds like a solid 'over' to me. The Twins are twice the team that the Mariners are and they rested several of their key bats yesterday. As a result, I don't expect the travel to be as big of an issue since they won yesterday with their bench. Speed doesn't take a day off. And the Twins should run all over the M's. Kind of a theme of the day - great odds on what is clearly the better team.
2-Unit Play. Take #964 Tampa Bay (-125) over Cleveland
The Rays are dominating at home and playing against a team that is pretty poor on the road. I don't see the Rays managing another sweep in this series, but I do think they take two of three, including this one. Tampa is 40-11 in its last 51 home games. If I see them posted under -150 then it should be considered almost a blind play. This one is not. Garza has had some success against the Tribe when he was with Minnesota and the Rays are 9-3 at home against left-handed starters. This will be another low-scoring affair and Tampa will just keep finding ways to get W's.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #967 Boston (-110) over Kansas City
Wow. I know that Clay Buchholz has been a pinata, but these are still pretty solid odds on the Red Sox here. Kansas City kind of peaked yesterday by thrashing the White Sox. It was an emotional game and they had to kind of mail in the last half of it because it was a blowout. I think they lose a bit of their edge. Also, the Royals have been crushing lefties lately but haven't done much against right-handed pitchers. Gil Meche is 3-13 against the A.L. East and the Royals are 20-50 in Monday games. That's a letdown team.