THURSDAY SERVICE PLAYS

THURSDAY SERVICE PLAYS

DUNKEL

Detroit at Cleveland   
The Tigers came back from an 8-1 deficit against All-Star Cliff Lee last night and look to make it three straight over the Tribe today behind a 6-3 road mark when favored between -125 and -150.  Detroit is the favorite (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 2.  Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135).   Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, JULY 31

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Harden) 14.679; Milwaukee (Bush) 14.824
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Over

Game 953-954: Colorado at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.043; Florida (Sanchez) 15.988
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Over

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.014; Atlanta (Hampton) 15.149
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); Over

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 13.988; Washington (Lannan) 14.771
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Under

Game 959-960: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Webb) 16.957; LA Dodgers (Lowe) 15.847
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-105); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-105); Under

Game 961-962: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 17.265; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.280
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Over

Game 963-964: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Garland) 17.078; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.899
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+145); Over

Game 965-966: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Dickey) 15.257; Texas (Harrison) 16.335
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 13
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 12
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-155); Over

Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 16.444; Minnesota (Baker) 15.579
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Over

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Steve Janus

St Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves    
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are getting hot again. They've won 8 of their last 9 as a road favorite and 7 games in a row against a team with a losing record. St. Louis is also 4-1 in Joel Pineiro's last 5 starts for them. The Braves are certainly in rebuild-mode after trading away Mark Teixeira, which won't help the fact that they've lost 4 game in a row and 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record.

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Nelly

Los Angeles Angels + over New York Yankees

The Angels are an incredible 19-7 against left-handed starters this season and 35-19 in road games. Despite those remarkable records the team with the best record in baseball continues to get little respect against the big-name teams like the Yankees. Los Angeles won seven of nine meetings between these teams in 2007 including going 4-2 in New York and the Angels are coming off a series win in Boston. Andy Pettitte has been a worse pitcher at home this season and Jon Garland has produced a 6-2 record in his road starts this season. The Angels have more road wins than the Yankees have home wins and there is value with the superior team as a road underdog tonight.

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Jimmy The Moose

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

With another win in Milwaukee last night the Cubs have now won 4 in a row. The Cubs are 51-23 in their last 54 games as a favoroite. Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record. Harden is on the mound this afternoon looking for his first win in a Chicago uniform and he'll pick it up today. Harden has striked out 10 batters in his last 3 starts and has a 1.04 ERA in his 3 starts as a Cub. The Brewers have lost 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Milwaukee had been playing great before this series with the Cubs. This afternoon they send Bush to the mound and although he's pitched well of late he struggles vs. Chicago. Milwaukee has lost his last 5 starts vs. the Cubs. Chicago has won 5 of their last 6 trips to Milwaukee. Play on the Chicago Cubs -.

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Scott Ferrall

Cleveland +125 with Carmona the snag over Verlander and the Tigers--Tigers players have to be pissed they traded Pudge to the Yanks for lousy Kyle Farnsworth

LA Dodgers -105 over Arizona--Derek Lowe beats Brandon Webb in the opener of this huge series

Atlanta +110 over St.Louis--Mike Hampton actually looked great in his first start of the season last week for the Braves and he'll beat Piniero here

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Frank Jordan

Arizona D-Backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers    
Play: Under     

Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe each have an era under 4 and are on top of their game of late. Look for both starters to be baffeling the hitters in a low scoring affair. Play the Under

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Jeff Hochman

Arizona D-Backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers     
Play: Over   

When you see a O/U of 6.5 in MLB it's almost like a 4.5 O/U in Hockey. Ask yourself, will both teams score at least 2 goals or 3 runs each.

In both cases odds-makers hate this line. They rather set it at 7u for MLB and 5u for NHL. Nearly 7 out of every 10 MLB games both teams score at least 3 runs. Heck, all MLB teams average between 3.3 to 5.7 runs per game. I have a feeling there will be more runs scored than people think as one of the two starters will not have his "A" game.

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Chris Jordan

Detroit -130 at CLEVELAND 

These two pitchers met on April 17, and though Justin Verlander has pitched against the Tribe two times since, you simply never forget losing to a specific pitcher when you meet him later in the season. Thus, we’re taking the Tigers with Verlander over the Indians with Carmona in this pitching rematch. It’s the perfect time, too, as Verlander has seemingly found his stuff once again and has been pitching well the past two months.

That, of course, is despite his last outing, which saw him get bombed by the White Sox last Saturday. It was the first time since May 31 he allowed more than three earned runs in a game, and he is 4-1 in July, including a win over these Tigers back on July 8. It’s a small complimentary play, so let’s not get too excited with this matinee cash, but we will take Verlander and company in this one.

3♦ TIGERS

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Bobby Maxwell

L.A. Angels +150 at N.Y. YANKEES 

Today we've got a great matchup to play as our comp winner when we go with the red-hot Angels to take care of the Yankees in New York.

This should be a good matchup as the Angels always seem to give the Yankees fits and Los Angeles looks like it has positioned itself as the top team in the American League after the acquisition of Mark Texiera.

The Angels have gone 42-20 in their last 62 games overall and come into New York off a sweep at Fenway Park over the Red Sox. Meanwhile they're playing a Yankees' team that is 11-2 in their last 13 home games.

Jon Garland (9-6, 4.30 ERA) is on the hill for Los Angeles and he's 6-2 on the road this season. Last year, as a starter for the White Sox, he faced the Yankees three times and was brilliant twice and got destroyed once. Back on Aug. 2 he gave up eight runs on nine hits in just 1.1 innings.

The Yankees have Andy Pettitte (12-7, 3.76) going tonight and this guy has been roughed up in three of his last five starts against Los Angeles. Last year he faced them on July 6 and gave up eight runs on 10 hits in five innings in New York. Although he did rebound to beat them in August in Los Angeles.

We're taking the best road team in baseball in the Angels toinght. Play Los Angeles.

3♦ L.A. ANGELS

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TONY WESTON

Alright, so I admit that I'm in a funk right now. The Brewers just went away after the Cubs got over on them Monday and didn't even come close to beating Chicago last night.

We take a loss and are now 32-18 our last 50 Comp Plays. We're turning that around tonight, however, as we're drilling this thing out of the ballpark as we're going with the over on the Diamondbacks-Dodgers.

The teams have played eight times this season and the over is 6-2 in that stretch, including 4-1 their last five games. So far in the two games the teams have played in Los Angeles the over is 2-0.
Also, consider that the over is 7-1 in the Diamondbacks last eight games and is 9-1 in Arizona's last 10 games on the road.

The over is also 4-1 in the Diamondbacks last five games that Brandon Webb has started, including 3-0 his last three starts.

The total for tonight is set at about 6 1/2 and the teams will blow right past that.

Take the over easily tonight.

3♦ DIAMONDBACKS-DODGERS OVER

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JIM FEIST

Justin Verlander has been a far cry from the pitcher that went 18-6 in 2007. Verlander is 8-10 this season with a 4.29 era. Verlander had a rough outing last time out with a four inning, nine hit, seven earned run loss to the White Sox. Justin has also not fared well against the Indians with a 4-7 lifetime mark and 6.27 era. Furthermore, he's 1-5 with a 8.91 era at Jacobs field. Fausto Carmona also has had a big drop off from his 19-9 record in 2007. However, he's 2-1 against the Tigers the last two seasons including a nifty one earned run performance this season for the win. We'll take the Indians here on Thursday against a pitcher they have hit very hard over his career.

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DAVE COKIN

Justin Verlander was roughed up in his most recent start. But prior to that the Tigers ace had a run of nine straight starts giving up three or fewer runs. Fausto Carmona was awful in his first start back from the DL for the Indians, and he's going to have to prove to me he's anything close to the dominant pitcher we saw last season. Until that time, he's someone I'll fade. Put me down for a play on Verlander and the Tigers.

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TONY MATHEWS

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Selection: Chicago/Milwaukee Under 7.5

The Chicago Cubs will use starting pitcher Rich Harden. Rich Harden has been pitching very well as of late. In fact, Rich Harden has a 1.04 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Rich Harden pitching another great game today.

The Milwaukee Brewers will use starting pitcher David Bush. David Bush has also been pitching very well as of late. In fact, David Bush has a 2.14 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see David Bush pitching another great game today.

The bottom line, we see very little scoring in today's game.

Take the Chicago Cubs/Milwaukee Brewers Under 7.5

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MATT RIVERS

For Thursday take the Brewers at home.

Rich Harden is an absolute stud and a guy that when on is as lights out as lights out can ever get. If that is the case today then it is going to be extremely hard to beat the first place Cubs but overall I have no issues with Ned Yost's Brewers at Miller Park and will take my chances in this spot.

Harden has not really gone deep into games this season and with closer Kerry Wood out there are some issues in Lou Pinella's bullpen. I can see another five or six inning outing from Harden and a tight game but the road proving to be a little much today for the boys from the Windy City.

David Bush has been very good of late for Milwaukee, save that mediocre last start at home against the Astros thanks to a dismal fifth inning, and is a guy that is just much better at home than on the road. Bush' is a sinkerballer and it seems to really do its thing on his home mound for whatever reason.

Do not sleep on the Brewers. This team did not look good in the first few games of this series but the talent is there as we have seen over the past few months. Prince, Braun, Weeks, Hardy, Hall and the rest of the Brew Crew are really really good and at this solid value at home I am fine about backing them against a very good Cubs' team but not what I consider a great team and especially not away from Wrigley.

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JOHN FINA

Selection: Seattle/Texas Over 12

Today we see a high-scoring game as the Seattle Mariners do battle with the Texas Rangers. One reason why we expect a high-scoring game is because both these teams will send to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Seattle Mariners Starting Pitcher (R.A. Dickey) has a 5.89 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Texas Rangers Starting Pitcher (Matt Harrison) has a 9.95 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these starting pitchers have been struggling as of late. The Over is a Perfect 2-0 in the last two meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another high-scoring game today! Take the Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers Over 12!

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Tony George's Thursday Best Bet

ARI (-110) vs LOS

Look for Brandon Webb to continue his road domanice at 8-3 on the year with a 2.81 ERA.  As a matter of fact the D-Backs have won 26 out of the last 37 starts behind Webb on the hill, and his stats are impressive all the way around, and his 14-4 record this season is impressive.  Both pitchers here are solid with Lowe taking the mound for LA, but Arizona has an edge with starting pitching, as Webb is 7-1 his last 8 starts against the Dodgers.  A low scoring affair, but Webb has the Dodgers number, even on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona

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Matt Fargo

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals    
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies continue to roll as they won again last night. One thing Philadelphia has been doing a good job of this season has been winning on the road as it is four games over .500 away from home after taking the first two games in this series. The bats are heating up again as it has averaged 8.0 rpg over its last four games all ending up in victories. The Phillies have won eight of the last 10 meetings in this series and they are now 8-3 in their last 11 games as a favorite.

Washington meanwhile continues to struggle. The Nationals went 2-7 in its recent roadtrip including losses in the final six games and it has now lost eight straight overall. Since a three-game winning streak in early June, Washington has gone a dreadful 9-27 over its last 36 games and the problem has been an offense that cannot be fixed. The Nationals have scored three runs or fewer in 21 of those games, averaging a mere 3.6 rpg in those 36 games. The Nationals are 7-18 in their last 25 home games.

John Lannan has been the most consistent starter for the Nationals but despite his solid performances, they are not getting wins to show for it. Washington has dropped nine of his last 11 outings and it is only 6-14 in his 20 starts. Run support is the main reason as the Nationals have scored two runs or fewer in 12 of his starts. Washington is just 2-6 in his eight home starts and has averaged a mere 2.5 rpg in those outings. That type of production simply will not get it done.

The Phillies counter with Kyle Kendrick and he has been off and on for the most part of the season. Unlike the Nationals, Philadelphia has been scoring behind him. It is averaging 5.95 rpg in his 21 starts and has gone 14-7 in those games. This includes a healthy 7.5 rpg in his 11 road starts and despite a 5.02 ERA on the road, Kendrick is 5-2. The Phillies are 0-4 in his four daytime starts but 14-3 in his 17 nighttime starts where his ERA is over four runs less. The Phillies are 8-1 in is last nine road starts. Play Philadelphia Phillies 1.5 Units

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SAPKOWSKI

Best
Colorado

Premium
St. Louis

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LAS VEGAS SPORTS ADVISORS

Philadelphia/K. Kendrick -124 POD 5*

Arizona -103 5*

St. Louis/J. Pineiro -114

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SportsKingz

CUBS -145

ST. LOUIS -125

PHILLY -125

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