TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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Larry Ness

Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week (4-0 since the break / 52-36 Y-T-D!)

Larry continued his winning ways last night, as the Red Sox beat the Mariners, 4-0. He's now 8-3 with guaranteed games since the break and 33-15 since June 30. He's won his last four GOW plays, upping his Y-T-D mark to 52-36 and his two-year regular season run to a simply stunning 173-86! "The winning continues" tonight. Any takers?

ST LOUIS CARDINALS


Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (33-15 overall run in MLB since June 30!)

Larry's guaranteed MLB releases are 8-3 since the break and 33-15 since June 30. He and his "unmatched" contacts took a terrible 'beat' the last time out (D'backs lost 6-5 to the Dodgers on Sunday, allowing a 5-run 9th!) but with a 26-15 mark s/May 26 on MLB Insiders, are proving once again that "it pays to be on the inside!" Want in?

TAMPA BAY RAYS


Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner ( 6-0 run / 9-1 with Wipeout Winners since June 17)

Larry's Wipeout Winners are living up to their moniker, as he's 9-1 with these highly-coveted plays since June 17. He's on a terrific 33-15 run with his guaranteed plays since June 30 and his Wipeout Winners have contributed a PERFECT 6-0 mark during that run. When Larry calls for a W-I-P-E-O-U-T, you want an invite to the party. RSVP now.

COLORADO ROCKIES

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BEN BURNS

Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox

This price is a bit steep to qualify as one of guaranteed plays. All the same, I believe that the White Sox will have a significant advantage and that they offer solid value at this price. Mendoza has made three road starts and the Rangers lost all three of them. He has a terrible 9.64 ERA and 2.141 WHIP in those games, averaging a mere 3 1/3 innings per outing.

Conversely, Beurhle has averaged nearly seven innings per start in his nine home outings with the White Sox winning six of them. That includes a 5-1 mark his last six starts here. Despite a slow start, the veteran southpaw has a solid 3.37 ERA and 1.206 WHIP here for the season. He'll face a Texas team which is just 11-19 (-6.6) against left-handers, averaging 4.4 runs per game. Beurhle is 9-3 with a 2.75 ERA against the Rangers, most recently tossing a no-hitter (6-0 Chisox win) against them last spring. His team badly needs another big performance and I expect Beurhle to come through for them once again. Consider a play on CHICAGO

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LT Profits

Baltimore Orioles +100

Shaun Marcum is making his first start in over a month for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, and the layoff should affect him vs. the Baltimore Orioles.

Yes, Marcum had an outstanding 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 98.2 innings at the time that he was shelved, but he is a precision pitcher that is not overpowering, so he becomes more hittable when his location becomes slightly off. That may be exactly the case with the long layoff here.

Now there is no denying that Garrett Olson has underachieved lately. In fact, he has been downright dreadful while going seven consecutive starts without recording a Quality Start. However, the Toronto offense made Radhames Liz look like Cy Young last night after he had allowed 14 earned runs he previous two starts, and at least Olson has demonstrated he has some ability the last two seasons.

The Blue Jays are batting just .245 vs. left-handed pitching this season, and they are averaging only 3.92 runs per game on the road. Look for them to come up short here just as they did in an 8-3 loss last night.

Pick: Orioles +100


Cincinnati Reds +100

Jake Peavy of the San Diego Padres still has some of the best stuff in baseball, but the Pads are a risky play as a road favorite when they visit the Cincinnati Reds tonight.

Peavy has a 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 101.2 innings, but the fact that he is just 7-6 and that the Padres as a team are 7-9 in all of his starts should give you an idea of just how bad the San Diego offense is. The Padres are averaging a pathetic 3.76 runs per game overall with a very mediocre .249 team batting average, and they are just 15-32 on the road, which is reason enough to avoid them as road chalk.

Now the Reds may have a virtually identical .248 team batting average, but they are averaging 4.41 runs because unlike San Diego, they have the ability to hit home runs. Their starter Johnny Cueto has pitched better than his 4.92 ERA, and he has been at his best vs. weak offenses. San Diego certainly falls into that category, and the fact that this is his first career start against them should make him extra tough.

The Padres won 6-4 here last night, but they have had difficulty piecing together wins, going just 1-7 the last eight times they were coming off of a victory. Look for them to fail to get back-to-back wins yet again.

Pick: Reds +100

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Charlies Sports

Washington @ Giants under 8' runs (500*)

Boston-135 (30*)

Yankees-130 (20*)

St.Louis-140 (20*)

Toronto+100 (10*)

Cincinnati-105 (10*) free play

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Brewers/Cardinals OVER 9

After combining to score just 9 runs in a 10 inning game last night, I look for these clubs to do plenty of scoring in this one.  The Over is 8-2 in the Brewers last 10 overall, 5-1 in the Brewers last 6 games following a win, and 8-3 in the Brewers last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Over is 5-1 in the Cardinals last 6 games as a favorite, 5-1 in the Cardinals last 6 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, and 11-4-1 in the Cardinals last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The bats will take center stage tonight.  Bet the OVER.

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STEPHEN NOVER

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis
PICK: St. Louis

Having lost the opener of this series to the Brewers, the Cardinals desperately need this game because they face CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets in the next couple of days.

Look for the Cardinals to get that victory today with Kyle Lohse on the mound. Lohse doesn't get the respect, but he's been sensational losing only twice in 32 starts since last July. Lohse has won his last nine decisions. The Cardinals are 11-1 in Lohse's last 12 starts. I have no problem laying $1.36 on Lohse tonight.

Former Cardinal Jeff Suppan goes for Milwaukee. He's been on the DL for the past 2 1/2 weeks due to an elbow injury. Prior to going on the DL, Suppan had allowed 15 earned runs, 23 hits and five walks during his last three starts spanning 14 innings. He has a 6.04 road ERA this season.

Don't look for the Brewers to have their one dependable reliever either. Closer Salomon Torres has pitched during the last three days, including going two innings last night. 

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The Parlay King

TAMPABAY DEVIL RAYS -1.5 + 125 
DETRIOT TIGERS -1.5 + 140     
SF GIANTS -1.5 + 175     

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Rocky Atkinson

San Diego @ Cincinnati 
Play On:  1* San Diego

Cincinnati is 3-11 this year when playing on Tuesday.  Cincinnati is scoring only 4.1 runs per game against right handed starters this year.  Jake Peavy has a 2.66 ERA overall this year and is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA his last 3 starts.  Cueto has a 6.16 ERA his last 3 starts.  San Diego is 5-2 at Cincinnati the last 3 years.  Peavy is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA overall vs Cincinnati since 1997.  We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight! 

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Tony George

San Diego @ Cincinnati 
Play: Padres

Always worth a serious look at an ace pitcher off a poor performance, and Jake Peavy for the Padres got lit up for 4 homers in a 1 run loss to St. Louis in his last mound appearance.  Nothing like motivation for a pitcher with an ERA less than 3 on the year, but has had little run support when you look at his win/loss record, but that does not undermine his prowess on the hill. 

Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds, a rookie, with an ERA of over 6 in his last 3 starts, none of them impressive, and this guy gives up hits like crazy, so the Pads should get some run support for Peavy tonight.  Although the Padres are not a good road team, I like their chances on the road tonight as a rare road favorite, and for good reason, better and motivated pitching!

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +102

Yusmeiro Petit takes the mound as a starter for only the second time all season for the Diamondbacks tonight.  Chicago’s offense is too tough to be kept down for long, and after getting shut out last night you can bet the Cubs will be ready to get after Petit Tuesday.  Chicago has surprisingly lost 4 of their last 5 games overall.  This struggle ends tonight against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season.  Jason Marquis has been at his best on the road, going 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 2008.  Marquis’ lifetime 3.29 ERA in eight career starts against the Diamondbacks looks very promising heading in.  The Cubs are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Cash in with the Cubs at nearly even money.

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Dwayne Bryant

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies 
Pick: Colorado Rockies -138

The Dodgers exploded for 16 runs last night in winning the series opener last night, 16-10. Runs will be much harder to come by tonight against Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez. In 10 home starts this season, Jimenez owns a 2.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .295 OOBP. Jimenez allowed just 5 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings (3.65 ERA) in his two career starts vs. LA at Coors Field; both were Colorado wins last season.

LA's Clayton Kershaw has a decent ERA on the season and on the road (4.34), bit his WHIP (1.66) and OOBP (.373) are high. That's because Kershaw has walked 12 batters in just 18 2/3 road innings, which is right on par with his overall ratio. None of Kershaw's four road starts have been Quality Starts, but 7 of Jimenez's 10 home starts have been. Kershaw has also struggled under the lights, posting a 5.95 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .382 OOBP in his four starts at night.

LA is batting .253 (.319 OBP) and scoring 4.35 runs per game on the road vs. righty starters. Colorado is batting .315 (.389 OBP) and scoring 7 runs per game at home vs. lefty starters. The Dodgers may be hitting well lately (.293 BA, .365 OBP, 6.75 RPG in their last 5 vs. righty starters), but the Rockies have been even hotter (.344 BA, .392 OBP, 9.14 RPG vs. lefty starters).

Take Colorado

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GINA

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have lost five of the last six versus the Brewers, but have won five of its last 7 against them at home and will have Kyle Lohse on the hill. The right-hander s 3-3 with a 5.50 ERA in ten career appearances (9-starts) versus the Brewers and the Cardinals have won 11 of Lohse's last 12 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 at home. Milwaukee counters with Jeff Suppan. The right-hander has pitched well against St. Louis, 6-2 in 10 career starts against the Cardinals, but is 1-1 with a huge 9.64 ERA in his last three starts. Milwaukee has lost five of Suppan's last 7 starts away from home.

Go with the Cardinals with Kyle Lohse at the controls. Lohse has pitched impressively, 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts.

St. Louis Cardinals - 140

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LARRY NESS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros

The Pirates entered last night's game on a five-game losing streak but a seven-run 9th led to a 9-3 win at Houston. The nine runs matched the team's total in losing a four-game series at Colorado last week. The Pirates have been a notoriously bad road team in recent years, entering this season with a 121-203 (.373) mark from 2004-07. The win leaves Pittsburgh just 16-32 away from home this year (.333), a winning percentage that is even lower than the team's preceding four-year mark. Paul Maholm (6-6, 4.10 ERA) gets the start and while he's been the team's best pitcher in '08 (Pirates own a ML-worst 5.29 team ERA in '08), he's once again struggling on the road. Maholm had a 6.25 road ERA in '06 (team went 5-10), a 6.14 road ERA last year (team went 5-9) and takes a 5.10 road ERA in nine starts this year (team is 2-7) into this game. While Maholm beat the Astros earlier this year in Pittsburgh to move to 4-3 in eight career starts vs the Astros (team is 5-3), he's had no luck here at Minute Maid Park, going 0-3 with a 13.89 ERA in three starts! The Astros are going nowhere in the highly competitive NL Central (see the Cubs, Brewers and Cards) but they are worth s shot here vs Maholm. Jack Cassell gets the start for Houston, his first since late April. He debuted in the majors last year with the Padres, going 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA in six appearances (four starts). He opened this year with the Astros and despite two mediocre April starts (9.2 IP / 6 ERs / 5.59 ERA), the Astros did win both games. Cassell was just recently recalled from the minors (three days after Oswalt was placed on the DL) and while it's hard to make too strong of a case for him, he did get his first major league win against the Pirates, pitching six innings (eight hits and no runs) of a 3-0 win while with the Padres last September 17 in San Diego. This is more of a "go-against" play vs the Pirates and Maholm on the road. Take Houston.

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Investment Playmakers

20* TWINS

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Marco D'Angelo

CWS -1.5 (+110) vs TEX

OK I know I took one on the chin last night with the White Sox but the situation screams for me to pull the trigger once again tonight. Texas struggles against Lefties as they are only 11-19 on the year. More importantly they only average 4.4 runs per game vs lefties where as they average 5.5 overall so clearly they struggle against the southpaws. If that wasn't enough Texas sends Luis Mendoza to the mound and lets just say the Mendoza Line has been pretty high. In 6 starts his ERA is 8.31 on the road it's 9.64. Expect The White Sox to tee off on Mendoza tonight. TAKE THE WHITE SOX (-1.5 RUNS) as MARCO'S TRIPLE DIME MASSACRE PLAY and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.

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RON RAYMOND

5* MLB BEST BET WINNER

Seattle Mariners/Boston Red Sox Under 8.5

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NELLY

Baltimore over Toronto

The Blue Jays are 9-17 against left-handed starters this season and Toronto is 5-16 in the last 21 road games. Shaun Marcum has fallen off his great early season pace for the Jays as Toronto has lost five of his last six starts. He still owns good overall numbers but they are not as strong on the road and he has received very little support from his offense. Garrett Olson is much better pitcher at home and the Orioles own a winning record behind him at Camden Yards. The home team has also won five straight in this series. Baltimore is ten games above .500 at home this season while Toronto is ten games below .500 on the road this season. The Blue Jays are hitting just .245 on the season against left-handers and Olson can pitch good enough for the win tonight.

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Rangers/White Sox Over 9.5

Luis Mendoza (2-3, 6.28 ERA) will take the mound for the highest -scoring squad in the majors.  The Rangers boast six starters that are hitting .280 or higher.  Texas scores 5.5 runs per game in all games this year, but they also give up 5.8 runs per contest.  The White Sox have been scoring 5.7 runs per game in their last 7 games and giving up a ridiculous 7.7 runs per game during the same time frame.  The OVER is 22-7-1 in Rangers last 30 vs. American League Central.  The OVER is 26-8 in White Sox last 34 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.  Take the OVER 9.5 runs.

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Robert Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (-135) over Milwaukee
Note: This is our Game of the Week.

I do not think that Jeff Suppan is OK and that is kind of at the crux of this play. Suppan is making his first start since a stint on the 15-day disabled list. However, he says that he's been pitching through pain in his shoulder since May. Who is to say if he's OK? St. Louis should be all over him regardless, seeing as the former Cardinals starter has no secrets when pitching against his former team. Further, Milwaukee won Game 1 and has C.C. and Sheets sitting in the kicker. They're in a great spot. And St. Louis knows they are in a rough one, putting all of the onus on getting this game tonight. This one is huge, and I think they will pull out all of the stops. The Brewers, on the other hand, may be more inclined to ease up, set their bullpen for the next two games, and try to walk out of St. Louis with a 3-1 series win. Further, the Brewers, a notoriously poor road team, has won four straight away from home. Teams playing in their fifth road game during such a streak this year are just 5-10. Kyle Lohse has been an ace for much of the year and has been dynamite at home (6-1, 2.37 ERA), while Suppan is just 3-5 with a 6.04 road ERA on the season. St. Louis is 11-1 in Lohse's last 12 starts and 5-2 in the last seven at home against Milwaukee. I think they bounceback nicely and we collect on a small price.


3-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Minnesota at New York Yankees
2-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+120) over New York Yankees 

Still working the Twins in this series and looking for a lot o' runs today. We have Tim McClelland behind the dish and he has a notoriously small zone. Mix in the fact that neither one of these arms are exactly lockdown candidates and we should be in business. The Twins have been an 'over' machine and they always swing better against righties, since most of Minny's power comes from the left-hand side. Darrell Rasner is a nibbler, and if McClelland isn't giving him the corners then he'll be in trouble. The Yankees seem to have their heads (and bats) out of their asses, so look for at least a 4-spot from them as well.


1.5-Unit Play. Take  Philadelphia (+1.5, -145) over New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take  Philadelphia (+155) over New York Mets

I wish I had a nickel for every time the Mets let down their fans in a situation just like this. They are playing at home. They have a ton of momentum. First place is on the line. They have their ace on the hill and have a severe pitching mismatch. Their rival, the Phillies, have lost two of three in Florida before coming to Shea. It's after an off day, which has been money for the Mets over the last three years. Everything - I mean everything - sets up for the Mets. And that's the problem. It's too perfect. We're getting good odds on a Philly team that has owned New York over the last couple years. And this is the perfect situation where everyone expects the Mets to sweep into first place. Well, I know better. Look for seven shutout from Johan and then a Mets bullpen meltdown to give the Phillies the win.


1.5-Unit Play. Take Boston (-160) over Seattle

The Red Sox know knuckleballs and, even though R.A. Dickey has had some nice outings and has a generous ump behind the plate, I think that Boston gets all over him today. The Sox are patient and they are a veteran hitting team. The knuckleball is not going to phase them. On the flip side, Dice-K just wins when he takes the hill for Beantown. They are 19-7 in his last 26 starts and 10-1 in his starts against a team with a losing record.


1.5-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-150) over Oakland
Note: If you haven't already made this play, please back it down to a 1-Unit selection.

I like the Rays - if they are getting -160 or less at home they are almost an automatic pick - but the number is dropping more than it should. It's a solid situation with a great home team facing what looks like a languid Oakland crew. But bump it down to a 1-Unit pick.


1.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-165) over Texas
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago White Sox (-1.5, +120) over Texas

Mark Buehrle has slowly but surely put together a nice little season and I think he's going to have the Rangers on their toes today. Texas has struggled a bit against lefties, going just 5-11 against southpaws overall recently and 16-35 against lefties on the road over the last couple years. The White Sox took a gut shot on Monday but I see them rallying back nicely. They feel the heat in their division and Ozzie will have them focused and ready to tool on that Rangers bullpen.


1-Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Angels (-1.5, +110) over Cleveland

Matt Ginter has a career ERA of nearly 9.00 against the Angels and Jared Weaver is always on his game in front of the home faithful. The Angels had a letdown yesterday after their big sweep over Boston, but I expect them to get it straight today and get all over the Indians. This play should rate much higher given the system, situation, and pitching mismatch. However, the Indians are playing well and we're just playing the numbers and looking for a small cash.

1-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (+100) over Arizona
Cubs aren't going to get swept in the desert since they are the better team than the D-Backs. I ignored my system yesterday and went with Chicago, like a fool, but we're going to get some of that cheddar back behind Jason Marquis. He's been very, very good to us this year and I think he'll come through again today over a spot starters. I love Petit. But if he can't go seven innings that's going to get us into that weak D-Backs pen.


1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.5 Pittsburgh at Houston
Just another stellar pitching matchup in Houston, with lefty Paul Maholm (1-5, 5.10 ERA) on the hill for the Pirates and being countered by the immortal Jack Cassel (6.28 ERA anywhere). We have Jim Reynolds behind the dish and the 'over' is 14-4 in his 18 games this year. He doesn't have an overly tight zone, but it should be enough for two bad starters and two weak bullpens to get 'over'.

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Wunderdog

Atlanta at Florida
Pick: 4 units on Florida +102

Not sure if this Atlanta team with a road record of 16-32 has the credentials to ever be favored on the road. So far the oddsmakers haven't agreed with us, but the results have. Atlanta has been favored on the road 26 times already this season, and has put together a record of 8-18 in those 26 games. It is hard not to see the value in it for us. Meanwhile Florida has maintained the 50% mark as a home dog, which automatically puts them in the plus column in this situation. Florida has also been a good bounce-back team this season winning game two in six of eight tries after losing the series opener at home. We will ride the value and the Marlins here

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