FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS
Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS
2.5-Unit Play. Take #924 Minnesota (-125) over Texas (8 p.m., Friday, July 18)
Love the matchup, love the situation, and I really like this play. Glen Perkins. Who the hell is he? Well, that's pretty much the conclusion you can come to about the entire Twins rotation. However, all these guys do is win, and win at short odds. Texas had four of its key players in the All Star game and I expect a little bit of a hangover, especially against the lefty Perkins, as the Rangers have struggled at times against southpaws this year. They are 18-38 on the road against a lefty starter and they are also just 6-14 in their last 20 on turf. Kevin Millwood is 6-15 in his last 21 road starts and the Twins are 6-2 in the last eight at home against Texas.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #926 Chicago White Sox (-150) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Friday, July 18)
I've been riding Mark Buehrle through all of his ups and downs this year and here's looking at another excellent outing from him. Buehrle is 13-3 in his last 16 home starts against the Royals and 8-1 in his last nine starts against them overall. On top of that, Zach Grienke is 0-5 in his last five outings against Chicago and he has tailed off considerably after his favorable start. He is just 2-5 in his last seven road starts and has a 4.79 ERA in his last 10 starts overall. The last time he threw in Chicago he got bombed for eight runs in six innings. Here's to hoping for a similar outing.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #928 Los Angeles Angels (-145) over Boston (10 p.m., Friday, July 18)
Boston was not the same team on the road in the first half and I expect that to continue. Especially against one of the best teams in baseball. Clay Buchholz has a 10.80 ERA in his last three outings and is 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA on the road. Kind of emblematic of the Red Sox's woes away from home themselves. John Lackey has been sensational this year and I am looking for a little All-Star hangover to follow the Red Sox west.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #910 St. Louis (-130) over San Diego (8 p.m., Friday, July 18)
On one hand I feel like we should just take our +200 on this series from yesterday's win and walk away. On the other hand I think we might be able to turn the faucet a little here in a series that is a mismatch. The Cardinals are tough at home and Braden Looper has done work in Busch Stadium. Greg Maddux still fetches decent numbers but he is not the arm that he once was on this dead end team. He's around the plate way too much for this Cardinals lineup, who will get in some good hacks and take care of him early.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #915 Milwaukee (-130) over San Francisco (10 p.m., Friday, July 18)
Let's see if C.C. Mania is for real. Let's see if C.C. is for real. It's easy to beat down some last-place clubs in front of your home faithful, but let's see the Brew Crew take this act on the road. Normally I would stay out of this situation but it's pretty tough to find a reason not to bet against Matt Cain every time out. His numbers are fine enough - at home and overall - but there's just one thing he can't shake: he's a loser. The Giants are 16-39 in his last 55 starts, 6-24 with him against a team with a winning record, and 3-14 when he throws in Game 1 of a series. He just loses. Add in the fact that C.C. has looked rejuvenated in his last two starts and we should be in business here.
1-Unit Play. Take #908 Houston (+105) over Chicago Cubs (8 p.m., Friday, July 18)
Let's not forget that the Cubs have been a pretty bad road team this year and may have a little first-half hangover. Houston has been pretty pathetic, but they are streaky. And a new start could give them new momentum. They are one of the best teams in the league against lefties and Ted Lilly has been erratic away from Wrigley this year. Brian Moehler isn't flashy but always gives the Astros a chance to win. I think they capitalize for us today.
1-Unit Play. Take #913 Los Angeles Dodgers (-115) over Arizona (9:30 p.m., Friday, July 18)
I really, really would love to go bigger on this game. And I would have if it weren't Doug Davis on the hill. He just wins at home. But the Dodgers perform better against left-handed pitching and Kuroda has been smooth since coming back from injury. We'll be able to get the Dodgers at low odds for this series and I don't see a D-Backs sweep, so we can scale our bets and wring a profit out of them one way or another.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.5 New York Mets at Cincinnati (7 p.m., Friday, July 18)
Note: Play this game at 9.0 if that's all you can get, as long as you are getting +105 or better. If not, no play