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FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

David Malinsky

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: 4* Under

A high line here for a couple of starters that the betting markets have not given their due, and with both bullpens bringing all key arms rested and ready that means time to play.

Zach Duke will never approach the 8-2/1.81 of his rookie season; he does not have that kind of stuff. In today’s Betting and Fantasy MLB community, if you are 4-5/4.23 with only 40 strikeouts in 104.1 innings, you go on the “avoid” list. We should know, when the season began we had him their ourselves. But in an 11-6 run to the Under in his starts we have been able to find a couple of opportunities, largely because there is a bond of trust in what Duke is doing right. If you lack the stuff to strike out hitters you had better be very good at locating your pitches, and he is doing just that. With only 32 walks in those 104.1 frames, and with only seven home runs allowed, Duke is forcing the opposition to earn their runs by getting multiple hits in an inning. That is a recipe for success - particularly when working from this mound, where he has been a solid 3.38 through 56 innings this season. And a Cardinal offense that has produced just 13 runs in the last seven games can allow him a chance to get right into rhythm.

Kyle Lohse brings some of the same properties as Duke - his 10-2/3.61 is not getting priced properly because he is doing it more with precision than power. But when you only allow 28 walks and eight home runs in 112.1 innings you are once again forcing the opposition to cluster hits together in order to score. And lately Lohse is even making hits difficult to come by - only one time in his last nine starts has he allowed more hits than innings pitched, and that is despite the fact that the recent stretch has been a most challenging one, with his last five starts coming against the Phillies, Red Sox, Tigers, Mets and Cubs.

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

ROCKETMAN

Chicago White Sox @ Texas
Play: 1* Chicago White Sox -115

White Sox are 50-28 on grass this year. White Sox bullpen has a very nice 2.79 ERA overall this year and a 2.66 ERA on the road this season. Gavin Floyd is 10-4 with a 3.22 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA his last 3 starts. Luis Mendoza is 1-3 with a 7.54 ERA in all games this year, 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA in all starts, 0-2 with a 12.80 ERA at home and 0-1 with a 12.91 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox tonight!

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Nelly
       
Washington + over Houston

Houston is 3-6 in road games that Roy Oswalt has started this season and his overall numbers are very mediocre this season. Oswalt has allowed 35 runs in his last ten starts and opponents are hitting .276 against him. Washington is 14-5 behind Tim Redding this season and 8-3 in his home starts. He has pitched better than the numbers indicate and he should have success against an Astros lineup that is hitting .218 against right-handers in the past ten games. Both teams are slumping right now but Washington is back at home after a long stretch of road games while Houston is traveling to its third different city on the current trip. The Astros are 20-29 away from home this year and with Oswalt less than 100 percent this looks like a good underdog spot for the Nats.

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DREW GORDON

Colorado +120 at NY METS 

Now, we all know the Mets are surging, winners of 6 straight, but let's not get carried away. I'll say the same thing about Oliver Perez, as he's pitched well over his last 2 starts, but again, let's not get carried away and here's why:

First, its not just the Mets that are playing well, as the Rockies have won 7 of their last 10 games, and splitting 2-2 with the Brewers at Miller is nothing to be embarassed about. We know both of these teams can be extremely streaky, and the fact of the matter is they're both playing well.

The difference in this contest comes on the mound, where you have to give the edge the Rockies All-Star Aaron Cook. True, he was terrible in his last start, but that was more an aberration than anything else. Cook has seen the Mets twice this year with mixed results - The first was a gem (1 run over 9 innings), the second was garbage (6 runs over 7 innings)... Coming off that ugly loss to Florida, I say he comes into this one RAZOR SHARP , and the fact he's 6-3 with 3.96 ERA on the road this season only strengthens my point!

Then there's Oliver Perez, who admittingly looked great in his last two starts. However, before you jumping all over the Mets in this one, try and remember, the only thing consistent about Perez is his inconsistency. This is the same guy who got rocked by the pathetic Mariners before the two starts against the Yankees and Phillies. This is the same guy who's ERA is worse at home than on the road, going 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA at Shea this season. Consider these things before you go against a pitcher like Aaron Cook!

Bottom line, while the Mets are playing well, so are the Rockies, and there's just too much value with their ace on the hill to look any other way. Let's grab that plus money with Cook, as he bounces back strong tonight at Shea!

Take Colorado behind Cook over the NY Mets and Perez in this MLB match up.

2♦ COLORADO

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Tony Karpinski

Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals   

Big bounce back win from Kansas City last night over the White Sox. They had two tough losses at home against the White Sox. Both games they lost by one run, but just as we said here yesterday the Royals bounced back and won the final game. How can the Seattle Mariners be favored in this spot? How can the Mariners who are 12 games under .500 on the road be the favorites? The Mariners just don’t have enough talent to win and things are getting so bad in Seattle, that they released Richie Sexton and a few Starbucks closed on Thursday. . They are twenty games under .500 and we'll take the better team at home. Play on the KC ROYALS 

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GamblersWorld.com

TIP OF THE DAY

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The division rival Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers are set to renew hostilities on Friday when they meet at Comerica Park.The Twins will trot Glen Perkins out to the mound in this one. Righthander Perkins has a 5-2 record and a 4.27 ERA this season.

The Tigers will counter Perkins with Armando Galarraga. Righthander Galarraga has a 3.07 ERA to go along with a 7-2 record this season.Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as -171 moneyline favorites versus the Twins, while the game's total is sitting at 9½.

Justin Morneau homered in the 11th inning on Thursday, as the Twins rallied for a 7-6 win over the Tigers. The combined 13 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (9).

Morneau finished 5-for-5 at the plate and Denard Span was 4-for-was 4-for-4 with one RBI. Matt Guerrier tossed two extra innings for the win.

Ramon Santiago drove in two runs for the Tigers, and Matt Joyce homered in a losing effort. Freddy Dolsi gave up the winning run and was tagged with the loss.

The Tigers had been -120 favorites in that game.

Team records:
Minnesota: 51-41 SU
Detroit: 46-45 SU

Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Detroit are 6-4
After playing Detroit are 8-2
After a win are 7-3

Detroit most recently:
When playing on Friday are 8-2
Before playing Minnesota are 6-4
After playing Minnesota are 3-7
After a loss are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
Detroit is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Detroit is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

mvbski wrote:


PlusLineSports Daily Baseball Pick

DOUBLEHEADER TODAY!!


Game 1

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox -1.5 +107


Game 2

Colorado Rockies vs NY Mets

NY Mets -1.5 +159

ADDING

SF Giants vs Chicago Cubs

Cubs-1.5 +135

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

EZWINNERS

MLB

1 STAR: (901) SAN FRANCISCO (+$142) over Chicago
(Listing Cain only) (Risking $100 to win $142)

1 STAR: (904) PITTSBURGH (-$106) over St. Louis
(Listing Duke only) (Risking $106 to win $100)

1 STAR: (907) COLORADO (+$118) over NY Mets
(Listing Cook only) (Risking $100 to win $118)

1 STAR: (921) MINNESOTA (+$128) over Detroit
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $128)

1 STAR: (924) TORONTO (-$115) over NY Yankees
(Listing Halliday only) (Risking $115 to win $100)


CFL

2 STAR: (406) WINNIPEG (-2.5) over British Columbia
(Risking $220 to win $200)

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

LEE KOSTROSKI

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: St. Louis

Kyle Lohse was an egregious All Star snub and he could deliver a focused performance to prove a point Friday night for the Cardinals. St. Louis has won nine of his past ten starts and he has been a critical addition to this team and will be critical to the playoff chances for the Cardinals. Lohse does not post glowing strikeout numbers but he has not walked more than two batters in any of his last ten starts. In eight of his last ten outings he allowed two earned runs or fewer and he owns a solid 3.61 ERA on the season.

The St. Louis bullpen struggled early in the season but of late the relief pitching has been solid. The road team has actually won five of the last eight meetings between these teams and St. Louis has a 25-20 record away from home this season. The Cardinals have been the superior hitting team on the season and St. Louis is 16-10 in the last 26 road games. The Pirates are allowing 5.6 runs per game in the last ten contests and the St. Louis offense should be able to post positive results tonight.

Lefthander Zach Duke continues to disappoint with three or more runs allowed in six of his last ten starts. Duke owns a 6.57 ERA over his past three starts and his record is 17-28 over the last three seasons. Pirate closer Matt Capps was also recently placed on the DL so the already struggling Pittsburgh bullpen could have another long night tonight as Duke has pitched just 12 innings in his last three starts.

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LT Profits

Atlanta Braves +130

The San Diego Padres have now lost 10 of their last 11 home games after dropping two out of three to the Florida Marlins here, which makes them vulnerable as big favorites over the Atlanta Braves, even with Jake Peavy on the mound.

Sure, Peavy has been his dominant self for the most part this season, with a 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 87.2 innings with 86 strikeouts. However, his 6-5 record is a direct result of the Padres putrid offense, as San Diego is averaging just 3.64 runs per game at home this year, where they are hitting a weak .221 vs. left-handed pitching.

This is good news for Atlanta southpaw starter Jo-Jo Reyes, who may be the only Braves pitcher that has actually done better on the road than at home this season. Reyes has a sparkling 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in five road starts, and he has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last four road outings.

Also, the Braves are 8-1 in nine head-to-head meetings with San Diego since last season, and we look for that trend to continue given the poor home form of the Padres.

Pick: Braves +130

Oakland Athletics -110

Sean Gallagher is making his Oakland Athletics debut here tonight against the Los Angeles Angels after coming over in the Rich Harden trade, and he could be very tough his first time through the American League.

Gallagher allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts for the Chicago Cubs, and he is facing an Angels lineup that has struggled at times this season with pitchers that hey have seen, let alone one that is facing them for the first time. Sure the Halos scored 26 runs the last four games, but that was vs. a Texas Rangers pitching staff that can make any offense look good.

Now Jon Garland is quietly having a fine season in Los Angeles, as he is 8-5 with a 3.76 ERA, including a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last three starts. However, he has always had trouble with Oakland and this year has been no exception, as he has allowed 13 runs and 23 hits in three starts against them, covering 19 innings.

Finally, if these pitchers are in need of support, Oakland is fourth in the American League with a 3.31 bullpen ERA, while the Angels are languishing a bit in that area at 4.15.

Pick: Athletics -110

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JEFF BENTON

Play the Braves as a road underdog against the Padres and Jake Peavy.

Peavy is a stud, no question about it. But the team behind him sucks. The Padres are a major-league worst 36-56 on the season, including 22-28 at home, where they?ve lost 10 of their last 11 games. Additionally, San Diego?s punchless offense is especially pathetic against left-handed pitching, batting just .244 on the season against lefties, an average that drops to .221 at Petco Park. Well, tonight, the Padres run up against Atlanta lefty Jo Jo Reyes, who hasn?t given up more than four runs in any of his last eight starts despite facing some of the best hitting teams in baseball (Marlins, Phillies, Rangers and Astros among them).

Despite a 1-3 record, Reyes has been solid on the road this year (2.52 ERA), and he runs up against a Padres squad thats lost eight of its last 11 against lefty starters. On top of all that, Atlanta has owned San Diego in recent years, going 16-5 in the last 21 clashes, including 6-1 in their last seven trips to Petco Park.

Bottom line: Yes, Peavy could throw a gem tonight wouldnt surprise me in the least. But despite the reigning Cy Young winners 2.67 ERA, San Diego is just 6-8 with Peavy on the bump, including 3-5 at home. That tells me there?s no way the Padres should be laying this kind of price. Back the Braves.

4♦ ATLANTA BRAVES

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Teddy Sevransky

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

Were getting solid value with the Rays in this game, largely due to James Shields sharp home/road dichotomy: a 2.08 ERA at home, compared to a 6.09 ERA on the road. The reality is that Shields has pitched just fine on the road with the exception of a couple of rough starts that have dramatically inflated his season long numbers. In his last road outing, Shields held the Marlins potent offense to a single run in seven innings of work. The Indians 13 run outburst yesterday is not likely to project forward into todays ballgame.

Tampa has matched their longest losing streak of the season, dropping four straight games thanks to an offense that has produced only seven runs. This team is too talented, and their pitching staff (both starters and bullpen) is too good for the losing to continue indefinitely. Thats most assuredly not the case for Cleveland right now, losers of ten straight prior to yesterdays blowout win. If team chemistry was being measured here in any tangible way, the Rays would be a 4:1 favorite or higher, and thats something that simply cant be factored properly into any moneyline equation. Clevelands bullpen behind Cliff Lee has been nothing short of disastrous in recent weeks and Lee himself has come back to earth a bit after his red hot start, with his ERA rising a full run since the end of May. Take Tampa Bay.

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

MILWAUKEE RL (+116) over Cincinnati

The Brewers took it on the chin two nights ago vs the Rockies, but they bounced back yesterday with a 11-1 win and I expect another big showing from them tonight. The Brewers have been a solid ball club at home, going 17-5 in their last 25 at Miller Park, scoring 6 rpg, while allowing just 3.5 rpg over that stretch. 5 Runs at home seems to be the key for this team, as they are 13-3 vs the RL in their last 16 home games when they score 5 runs or more, while outscoring foes by 4.6 rpg whenthey score 5 or more. Josh Fogg has give up 6 or more ER in 3 of his 5 starts this year and 4 or his last 6 starts dating back to last year. He has been bad overall this year going 1-2 with an 8.39 ERA, including 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA on the road and an 0-1 mark with a 12.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Brewers are scoring 6.6 rpg in his starts overall, 8 rpg in his road starts and 7 rpg in his last 3 starts. So you see why 5 is important here. I fully expect the Brewers to get 5+ runs in this one. Manny Parra has been awesome at home, going 5-0 with a 2.70 ERA, with the Brew Crew scoring 5.9 rpg (there's that 5 runs again) for him, while allowing just 3.2 rpg in his home starts. In Manny's last 4 home starts he is 4-0 with a 2.16 ERA, with the Brewers outscoring their opponents by a 29-5 count. The Reds offense struggles on the road, going 18-30, while in their last 11 losses on the road they have been outscored by 4.6 rpg. The Reds only score 4.1 rpg on the road, 3.9 rpg in division games and 4 rpg at night. The Brewers should easily get the 5 runs I'm looking for in this game and that will translate into another RL win for them.


2 UNIT PLAY

CHICAGO -146 over San Francisco

The Giants are 3-13 in Cains last 16 starts during game 1 of a series and 2-15 in his last 17 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, while the 9-1 in Marquis' last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 16-5 in his last 21 starts as a home favorite. The Cubs have been amazing at home this year, going 35-11, while scoring 6.54 rpg and hitting .309 in their games at Wrigley this year. The Cubs are beating opponents by 2.5 rpg at home and they haven't lost BB home games since the opening weekend of the season. Jason Marquis has struggled this year, with a 6-5 record and a 4.78 ERA, including a 3-3 mark with a 6.29 ERA at home, but the Cubs are still 5-3 in his home starts thatnks to the fact that they put up 7.4 rpg for him at Wrigley. Jason is also 3-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his 5 career starts vs the Giants. The Giant offenese has been sorry as they average just 4 rpg on the road and 4.5 rpg in day games, where they are 10-23 on the year. The Giants have also put up just 2.2 rpg in their last 5 and have been shutout in 2 of their last 3. Matt Cain gets the ball for San Fran in this one and he has gone 5-7 with a 4.30 ERA overall, including a 2-3 mark with a 4.42 ERA on the road and he has really struggled in day games, going 0-4 with a 6.31 ERA in day games, with the Giants going 0-7 in his day starts overall. Another problem for Matt has been run support as the Giants score just 3.6 rpg for him overall and 3.3 rpg for him in his road starts. Matt does have a 4-2 mark with a 3.29 ERA vs the Cubs, but this offense rolls at home and they should be able to tag him for 6 orr 7 runs before getting into the bullpen. Both pitchers should struggle today, so when that happens you have to look at the team that has the better chance of out scoring the other and that edge clearly goes to the home team in this one. Cubs win a wild one.   


1 UNIT PLAY

Chicago/ San Fran Over 11

Ok I've had a long discussion with myself (not usually a good sign.. LOL) and have decided to also play the Over in this one. I won't bore you with a long writup as I have one on the side, but there are a few numbers to look at here. Jason Marquis home games have been very high scoring this year as the Cubs score 7.4 rpg in his starts, while they giive up 5.9 rpg in those starts. Jason's day starts average 11 rpg, while his last 3 overall average 12 rpg. Matt Cains day starts average 11.7 rpg. The Over is 22-10 in SF's day games this year, and 22-17 in Chicago's day games. We also have a wind that's blowing out to center at 12-13 Mph. I feel te Cubs will win a wild high scoring affair in this one.

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GINA

San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs
 
The Chicago Cubs have won 17 of heir last 20 games at Wrigley Field and three of its last four versus the San Francisco Giants at home.

Chicago will send Jason Marquis to the hill. The right-hander has lost his last two starts, but went 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in six career games against the Giants (5 starts). San Francisco will counter with Matt Cain, The right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs. Look for thr Cubs to outscore the struggling Giants at Wrigley. San Francisco has lost four straight, 2-5 in its last 7 road games and six of the last nine meetings against the Cubs.

Go with the Chicago Cubs to get back to winning ways at home.

Chicago Cubs -150

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Wunderdog

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Game Total UNDER 12

The Cubs were shelled for seven home runs and 12 overall runs last night. Overall, 19 runs were scored. Often after games like that, we see the next game result in a much lower tally and that's one reason we like the UNDER here. At 12, it's asking a whole heckuva lot to get this game to go OVER. This is especially true when you consider that the Giants offense is averaging 4.0 runs per game on the season and they managed just three total runs in their series against the Mets. Neither of these pitchers is that awful, as both have ERAs in the mid 4's. We'll take the UNDER on this huge total this afternoon.

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

SAPKOWSKI                   

Premium
CHI Cubs
CHI White Sox

Free picks
SD Padres
SEA Mariners

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Re: FRIDAY SERVICE PLAYS

BEN BURNS

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers -137

This line has come down from its opening number to the point where I now feel the home team offers us solid value. These two pitchers faced each other at Minnesota a couple of weeks ago. Neither earned a decision but the Twins came away with a 5-4 win. That result notwithstanding, the Tigers are a terrific 18-6 against southpaws on the season. Perkins is likely to find out that they're also a much better hitting club here at Detroit. Indeed, as a team, the Tigers are batting over .300 at home (.302) while averaging a whopping 5.9 runs per game. They're 11-3 when Gallaraga (3.07 ERA as a starter) starts, including 5-1 here at home. They should be able to bounce back from yesterday's series opening setback, improving to 82-41 their past 123 against left-handed starters. Consider a play on DETROIT

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JOHN MARTIN

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals
1 Unit on Houston Astros -129

Houstons Roy Oswalt will lead the Astros to a road win over the Washington Nationals Friday. Washington is 1-9 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. The Nationals are 8-25 against the money line in home games vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Oswalt is 84-31 against the money line in the second half of the season since 1997. Sometimes it takes The Wizard half a season to find his mojo, but Oswalt looks to have found it right now. Oswalt features a 2.61 ERA over his last three starts where he has been victorious in two of them. Washington is 1-11 against the money line with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games this season. The Nats bullpen is as tired as they come right now. Cash in with Houston as the favorite.

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Info Plays
   
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers   
3* on Milwaukee Brewers -172

This game wont even be close. Reds starter Josh Fogg is a terrible 7-24 vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game since 1997. The Brewers offer the best pop in their lineup in the National League. Milwaukee is 30-9 in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee is 40-12 in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Josh Fogg is one of the worst starters in baseball. Bet the Brewers at home.

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BLACK WIDOW SPORTS
   
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox   
1* on Boston Red Sox -200

This is an easy bet to take the Red Sox at home. Obviously you have to bet a lot to win a little, but the Sox are worth every penny tonight. Boston is 24-5 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. The Red Sox are 16-2 (+12.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season. Boston is 21-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season. The Red Sox have only loss four times all season at home as this big of a favorite. Now you can see why this is basically a gimme that the Sox will win tonight. Take Boston on the Money Line.

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