MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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Tony Karpinski

Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates     
Play: Under   

The Houston Astros enter Monday knowing their best pitcher is not all right. They just hope their top hitter is. While Roy Oswalt is unlikely to start in this series, the Astros hope Lance Berkman will as they meet the Pittsburgh Pirates in a three-game set matching the NL Central's worst teams. Berkman has been one of the few bright spots for the Astros (41-48), but was held out of the starting lineup Sunday due to an irritated left eye after feeling discomfort in Saturday's game at Atlanta. The Pirates dont have much of an offense either and I lean to the UNDER in this battle. Play the UNDER

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Ben Burns

Game: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Both tonight's starting pitchers lasted just five innings last time out. However, while Pedro Martinez allowed five runs in his five innings, Adam Eaton allowed just two earned runs in his five innings of work. The Phillies would win Eaton's start by a score of 7-3 while the Mets would lose Martinez's start by a score of 8-7. The Mets are now 0-3 the last three times that Pedro took the mound and a dismal 5-11 the last 16. Over his last three starts, he has an awful 10.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP. He's been brutal away from New York all season too, recording a 8.37 ERA and 1.817 WHIP in five road starts. The Mets are now 5-13 in Pedro's last 18 road starts, dating back to May of 2006. The Mets are also 0-4 the last four times that he started against the Phillies.

While Eaton is never going to win any Cy Young awards, the Phillies are a solid 5-2 in his seven home starts this season. Perhaps more importantly, Eaton has always enjoyed remarkable success against the Mets. In fact, he's a perfect 5-0 in nine starts against them and his teams won eight of those nine games. With the Phillies at 8-2 the last 10 times they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range, consider backing the home team.

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LUCKY LEPRECHAUN SPORTS

TAMPA BAY -1.5 (+107) over Kansas City

The Mariners are 3-14 in Meches last 17 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and 1-13 in his last 14 starts vs. American League East, while the Rays are 23-3 in their last 26 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200 and 22-4 in their last 26 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. I know this is a RL pick but those numbers are still important. Tampa Bay is 15-5 in their last 20 meetings, with KC and 14 of those 15 wins having come by 2 runs ore more and 13 of the 15 have been by 3 or more, while the Rays have outscored the Royals by 4.3 rpg in the 15 wins. Tampa has been a fav of -151 to -200 12 times this year and they are 12-0 in those games with all but 2 of them being won by 2 or more, while outscoring their opponents by 4.4 rpg in the process. The Royals are scuffling right now, winning just 2 of their last 9 games, with all 7 losses coming by 2 runs or more. KC has scored just 2.8 rpg in their last 18 road losses, with only 3 of those loses being by 1 run and they have been outscored by 4.5 rpg in the 18 losses. That Royals offense will not have an easy time today as they face Matt Garza, who is 5-1 with a 2.16 ERA at home. TB has won his home starts by 1.75 rpg. Gil Meche has been on a nice run for the M's, going 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he is just 3-5 with a 4.13 ERA on the road this year and he is just 1-4 with a 5.65 ERA in his career vs the Rays. Matt Garza may be 0-3 in his career vs the M's, but he does have a nice 3.20 ERA vs them, as they Rays have scored just 4 total runs in those games, and also that was in a time when the Rays were not very good. This years edition is very good, they are on a roll and should have no problems winning this one by 2 runs ore more.     

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Players of America

Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -120.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

The Astros buckle up and take flight to Pittsburgh on Monday to start a new week of MLB action in the National League. It seems these two teams have a little something in common, and that is that they have experienced some of the biggest swings in the sport. Houston enters 41-47 overall and the Buccos a mere 40-46, 25-19 at home.

The righty Runelvys Hernandez toes the rubber for the Stros and is a measly 0-2 this year throwing just ten short innings. In those ten innings, the amateur has given up eleven hits and has an earned run average of 5.40. Houston as a team has bigger issues that heavers though. Lance Berkman is not expected to be in the starting line up for the Astros, as well as superstar shortstop Miguel Tejada. Both studs are scheduled for "rest" days and this is going to put a big dent in the line up for this squad. Things are looking cloudy down the road, and it seems there isn't much light at the end of the tunnel for these guys. Fold-time. With ace pitcher Roy Oswalt on the day-to-day DL, heads could be hanging a bit in Houston.

Switching dugouts, Pittsburgh hasn't been anything to write home about themselves this season. The lefty Phil Dumatrait is on the dirt and he's been mediocre at best. He's 1-1 his last three starts with a WHIP of 1.72 and an ERA of 4.66. The reason for this play isn't the pitching, it's the situation. Spotting value on a squad like this is an excellent opportunity to when one team is saying "Go ahead, beat us" and resting their players, and the other is not. As reported as of midnight, July 6, there are no significant injuries for the Pirates and the bullpen is rested and healthy.

PNC Park should have a nice Monday night crowd in downtown steel-city, and expect the Pirates to come out firing on all cylinders. Give us the Buccos for a nice little 10 unit wager on Monday.

TREND OF THE GAME: Houston is 4-12 in their last 16 road games.

Pittsburgh 6, Houston 3


Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Play: Kansas City Royals +180.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

This next selection might not be a popular one, but it is without a doubt a pure value bet on Monday. The two teams at bay are the Kansas City Royals of the AL Central and the sizzling hot Tampa Bay Devil Rays. These two teams square off at 3:40PM EST in Florida.

The visiting Royals elect to put the right-hander Gil Meche in the spotlight to start the game. Meche is 2-1 his last three starts throwing 18+ innings with a WHIP of 1.23 and an impressive 2.88 ERA.

On the other sideline, Matt Garza will be starting out for the Rays. Garza is also 2-1 his last three appearances giving up just 13 hits in 22 innings. Pretty impressive numbers, there is no denying that. However, the Royals are one of those teams that are capable of beating the world any given night and also capable of getting blown out by about 20 runs on any given day. With the way Tampa Bay has been setting the world on fire, we absolutely love the value on an opponent like the Royals tonight to put a halt to the madness.

The Devil Rays are 2-0 this year against KC, but neither of these pitchers has seen time. The first meeting was a 3-0 nod towards the Rays and the next an 11-2 blowout also favoring Tampa Bay. There might be a little chip-on-the-shoulder type deal for these Royals. I'll bet any amount of money that the staff of that ball club isn't ready to fold things up for the season. The inconstancy of the AL Central leaves every position wide open for post-season play, and KC is a prime candidate for a mid to late season run like that.

With that being said, let's grab all the underdog value here and place another nice little 10 unit wager on KC to pull the upset.

TREND OF THE GAME: The Royals are 18-6 in their last 24 Monday night games.

Kansas City 4, Tampa Bay 3


Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
The Play: Under 8.5
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

Next, we're going to travel to the opposite side of the country and set up shop on the west coast in San Diego. The Marlins are packing their bags and going with us, too. These two teams have some big time potential come post season time and both know how to play the game pretty darn well.

The Marlins were hot early in the year and were pretty much the talk of the town. As of late, they've lost stud Dan Uggla to an ankle injury and Brett Carrol to a separated shoulder. Likewise, the Pads have three players that typically get some playing time on the DL too.

We've got a pretty decent pitching dual Monday in San Diego as Ricky Nolasco faces Greg Maddux. These two set up perfectly for a total wager to be placed. In the last ten games, the Padres have stayed under the total seven times, and Florida five. Interestingly enough, SAN DIEGO HAS HAD A GAME STAY UNDER THE TOTAL AT LEAST ONCE IN EVERY HOME SERIES THIS SEASON. San Diego is a favorite for being an UNDER-sort of ball park, and that above trend stays in tact tonight. We're going to lay 10 units on this one, too, and watch for this one to be a defensive battle.back and forth.

TREND OF THE GAME: The UNDER is 8-2 in San Diego's last ten versus NL East.

San Diego 3, Florida 1


Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Play: Under 8.0
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)

Rarely enough, here is another total play for the best. The quickly slumping Braves are heading across the country to Los Angeles for a late night showdown with the Dodgers. We've all seen the Atlanta woes, and they get even worse on the road.and maybe even worse 20 states away.

Well, let's start with this. Both of these teams tonight dug deep down to pull out a late win. By saying a late win, we mean a hard fought, LATE WIN. Atlanta went 17 long innings in their finale last night with Houston and the Dodgers strapped it on late to hold on to a 9th inning rally in San Francisco. The Braves are whooped, physically, mentally.everything. When odds makers released this line late last night, they had to be thinking twice about the total figure because of all the madness that took place with the Braves.

LA is a little beat up offensively which will help our case for an under. Juan Pierre is out indefinitely for at least 15 days with a knee sprain and shortstop Rafael Furcal is also on the 15 day DL as he'll undergo back surgery Thursday. Those are two key offensive losses for this team. There is a nice list of trends and system fits for this match up, and typically we don't base a selection solely on that, but let's review:

The UNDER is 37-15-1 for Atlanta in their last 53 road games.
The UNDER is 47-21-3 for Atlanta in their last 71 games on grass.
The UNDER is 49-22-3 for Atlanta in their last 74 overall games.

The UNDER is 11-2 for Los Angeles in their last 13 overall.
The UNDER is 11-2 for Los Angeles in their last 13 games on grass.
The UNDER is 16-5 in Los Angeles in their last 21 home games.

The above are some pretty impressive statistics. Campillo for the Braves has a solid 2.99 ERA and Kuroda is right around 3.50 for the Dodgers. Both are UNDER pitchers with Campillo keeping games under the total six of the last eight times out and Kuroda nine of the last 15 times out. With the way things shook out last night, let's lay down a 1* wager worth 10 units on this game staying well under the quoted total.

TREND OF THE GAME: The UNDER is 11-2 for Los Angeles in their last 13 games.

Los Angeles 4, Atlanta 1

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PlayByPlayInc.

ATLANTA BRAVES +119

TAMPA BAY RAYS -191

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Rocketman Sports

Houston @ Pittsburgh
Play On: 1* Pittsburgh -130

Pittsburgh is 68-49 the past 3 years at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Houston has lost 5 of their past 6 games overall. Houston is scoring only 4.0 runs per game on the road this year. Pittsburgh bullpen has a 3.51 ERA at home this year. Hernandez is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA overall this year. Dumatrait is 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA at home this year. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!

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Mr A

Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been the major league-worst road team. Milwaukee has lost 16 of its last 20 road games and is a gloomy 12-31 away from home this season. They will be facing the Rockies tonight at Miller Park, where they have won their last five games and 15 of their last 18.

Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez (3-8, 4.50) is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 0-6 with a 6.96 ERA on the road this season and the Rockies have lost ten of his last 11 road starts. Jimenez allowed four runs and five hits over six innings of a 6-4 victory in his only start against Milwaukee on June 5, but did not factor in the decision.

Milwaukee's Seth McClung (5-3, 4.18) is 1-0 with a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts, and is 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three home starts. The right-hander will make his first career appearance against Colorado.

Take Milwaukee at home. The Brewers have won eight of the last 9 versus the Rockies at Miller Park.

Milwaukee Brewers -135

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Alex Smart

Florida Marlins +102

The Florida Marlins enter into todays tilt against the struggling San Diego Padres off a 10-5 win against the Colorado Rockies in Coors Canaveral yesterday, and will be primed to gain ground on the Phillies in the National League east race. The Padres have lost 8 straight at home in Petco, getting out scored by an average 5.6 RPG during that negative span.Things may not get much better for the Padres in spot as the the Marlins send the red hot Ricky Nolasco (9-4, 3.94 ERA) to the hill to tame the NLs second worst offense . The right hander is capable of doing just that , behind the momentum of four straight wins in which he has quality outings, allowing three earned runs or less in each of those starts , while garnering a 1.96 ERA during an impressive current 5 game run.The Padres send will respond with a frustrated Greg Maddux (3-6, 4.04 ERA) who has not won since notching his 350th career win 10 starts ago. The veteran southpaw has also been smashed in his last two outings , as is evident by allowing 15 runs, in 10 innings of work. Turning things around will not come easily here today, against a Marlins team, that he is 0-4 against along with a 4.36 ERA in his last 5 starts.I know the Marlins are not a reliable road team , to back, but the Padres are in a huge funk, and have been unable to take advantage of home field advantage. With the pitching matchup favoring the Marlins, they look like a viable side to back.Final notes & Key Trends: Marlins are scoring an average of 5.7 RPG on the road this season. Padres are scoring 3.6 RPG at home.Play on the Marlins

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LT Profits

Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers Under 9.0

The Colorado Rockies just got through scoring 41 runs in a four-game home series with the Florida Marlins, but they should find runs harder to come by when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers Monday.

The Rockies are averaging just 3.63 runs per game on the road this season, where they are batting a modest .246 as a team overall. Not surprisingly, the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games, and they have the added benefit of a total inflated here because of their recent offensive eruptions in the altitude of home.

Now Milwaukee starter Seth McClung may have a 4.18 ERA in eight starts, but the truth of the matter is that he has actually pitched surprisingly well, allowing two runs or less in six of his starts. His WHIP of 1.36 also looks better when you factor out his two bad outings. He should ne tough on a Colorado lineup that has never faced him before.

This is not to say that the Rockies cannot win this game, because their starter Ubaldo Jimenez has also pitched very well after just an awful start. Jimenez has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts, including allowing one run or less in three of those outings. He is facing a Milwaukee lineup that is hitting only .247 vs. right-handers the last 10 games, as opposed to .319 vs. southpaws.

Thus, we prefer the Under at this number to either side here.

Pick: Rockies, Brewers Under 9


Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7.5

This seems like a low posted total for the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers considering this pitching matchup.

Jorge Campillo got off to a great start for the Braves this season, but he has crashed back to earth lately. He allowed five earned runs and 10 baserunners in just five innings vs. the Phillies in his last start, and has a 5.40 ERA in his last three outings. He is also facing a rejuvenated Dodgers offense that is averaging 5.60 runs over the last six games.

Now granted, Hiroki Kuroda has a 3.73 ERA for the season for Los Angeles, but he is not dominant enough to merit a low total like this, especially vs. a mediocre mound opponent. Although he only allowed two runs in six innings and received credit for a Quality Start in his first outing vs. the Braves in Atlanta this season, he did allow 11 baserunners and was just fortunate that the Braves could not get a key hit.

Do not expect Kuroda to get that lucky again however, so look for a safe Over here.

Pick: Braves, Dodgers Over 7.5

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BOB AKMENS

4* Royals / Rays Under 8

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Erin Renning

20* Playmaker Seattle +145

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Gina

Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres

Florida has dropped four of their last 5 road games, but has taken four of the last six against San Diego at Petco Park. The struggling Padres have lost 15 of their last 19 games overall and its last eight at home.

To Boot, the Marlins will have Ricky Nolasco on the hill. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA in three career outings, including two starts against San Diego, but currently is pitching terrific. Nolasco is 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last five starts and 7-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last nine outings. The Marlins have won Nolasco's last 5 starts and his last four on the road. Meanwhile, San Diego's starter Greg Maddux has struggle. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 7.79 ERA in his last three starts. Maddux is 19-14 with a 2.95 ERA in 41 career starts against the Marlins, but 0-4 with a 4.36 ERA in the last five. Go with the Marlins with Nolasco at the helm to outscore the struggling Padres.

Florida Marlins +105


Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays -200

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Kelso

High Rollers Baseball Club

10 unit - Angels

Best Bets Baseball cCub

5 unit Milw
4 UNIT Florida
3 unit parlay Milw-Fla

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GamblersWorld

TIP OF THE DAY

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

The New York Mets will be trying to extend a winning streak on Monday when they take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Pedro Martinez will be the starting pitcher for the Mets on this day. Righthander Martinez is 2-2 this season with a 7.39 ERA. The Phillies will counter Martinez with Adam Eaton. Righthander Eaton has a 4.79 ERA to go along with a 3-6 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Phillies listed as 130-moneyline favorites versus the Mets, while the game's total is sitting at 10½. The Mets defeated Philadelphia 4-2 as a +110 underdog on Sunday. The six runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (9.5). Fernando Tatis delivered a two-run home run in the 12th inning for the Mets, while Oliver Perez pitched seven shutout innings. Jayson Werth hit a two-run home run that tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, while Kyle Kendrick allowed one run in six innings. Current streak: New York has won 2 straight games. Philadelphia has lost 2 straight games. Team records: New York: 44-44 SU Philadelphia: 48-41 SU New York most recently: When playing on Monday are 5-5 Before playing San Francisco are 6-4 After playing Philadelphia are 6-4 After a win are 3-7 Philadelphia most recently: When playing on Monday are 6-4 Before playing St. Louis are 8-2 After playing NY Mets are 5-5 After a loss are 3-7 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia NY Mets are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Mets The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games

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Re: MONDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Steven Budin

25 DIME

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

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Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections

5000* BASEBALL CRUSHER
Milwaukee w/Mc Clung -129

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WUNDERDOG

Game: Colorado at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -140

This line is held down by the fact that the Rockies have won five of six. The problem is that all of those games were at home where the Rox have been a better than good team in their last 21 home games going 14-7. This is a road game however, and the Rockies have been just 5-26 in their last 31 road tilts. We have seen them sweep Atlanta, then go on the road and drop two straight this season. At the same time this is a Milwaukee team that is 17-4 in their last 21 at home. It is hard to pass up the value here as the Brew Crew wins game one.

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Dwayne Bryant 11-4 (73%) on last 15 money-line plays.

Colorado Rockies (Jimenez) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -134

Much is being made of Colorado's recent offensive surge (.300 average, 8.7 runs per game in their last seven), but all of that came in the thin air at Coors Field. The Rockies bat just .246 on the road, where they're just 12-31 on the season.

The Brewers have been swinging some hot bats, too. Milwaukee is hitting .296 and
scoring six runs per game over their last seven. Tonight, they face Ubaldo Jimenez.
Jimenez faced the Brewers on June 6th in Colorado and allowed four runs (two homers) in six innings (6.00 ERA). Jimenez owns a 6.96 ERA and 2.06 WHIP on the road, where the Rockies have lost ALL NINE of his starts.

Milwaukee counters with Seth McClung. McClung has decent numbers (4.24 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) at home, where the Brewers have won three of his four starts. McClung also has the advantage of facing the Rockies for the first time. Milwaukee has won five of the last six in this series at Miller Park and they're 28-13 at home on the season.

Take Milwaukee and McClung over Colorado and Jimenez.

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Lenny Del Genio's 20* AL Game of the Month

Play on LA Angles at 8:05 ET. The Angels are one of the few teams, if not the only team, that you want to consider playing more on the road than at home. After all, you're always likely to grab them at a fairer price, but also the Halos remain a MLB best 27-15 away from home. Then there is the fact that this is a pitching mismatch of titanic proportions. LA sends out All-Star Ervin Santana, who is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA on the road this season. He'll be opposed by the Rangers Luis Mendoza. In his last three starts, the opposition has scored 11, 19, and 18 runs. Worse news for Mendoza is the fact his bullpen will be depleted following Sunday's slugfest with Baltimore. LA has won three of five from Texas this season, including both meetings here in Arlington. The Angels have been hot at the plate lately, however, producing 32 runs while winning four of five. They hit .324 and scored 20 runs to take two of three from Toronto over the weekend, including 11 hits in winning Sunday's series finale 7-1. The Rangers are only 21-18 at home despite batting .299 and averaging an AL-best 6.0 runs. That means bad pitching and bad pitching will lose you plenty of ballgames. LA Angels are our 20* AL Game of the Month.

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