WNBA News and Notes July 3

WNBA News and Notes July 3

Trend Sheet

7:00 PM HOUSTON vs. ATLANTA
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home


8:00 PM SACRAMENTO vs. SAN ANTONIO
Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
San Antonio is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Sacramento


10:00 PM NEW YORK vs. SEATTLE
New York is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 5 games
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York


10:30 PM MINNESOTA vs. LOS ANGELES
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Los Angeles's last 23 games

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Re: WNBA News and Notes July 3

HOUSTON (7 - 9) at ATLANTA (0 - 16) - 7/3/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 221-168 ATS (+36.2 Units) in all games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 147-98 ATS (+39.2 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
HOUSTON is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) in July games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 158-110 ATS (+37.0 Units) in May, June, or July games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) on Thursday since 1997.
HOUSTON is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1997.
HOUSTON is 86-60 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
 
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons 
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons 
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

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SACRAMENTO (8 - 8) at SAN ANTONIO (10 - 6) - 7/3/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in road games after scoring 75 points or more since 1997.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in May, June, or July games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
SACRAMENTO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
 
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 6-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons 
SACRAMENTO is 6-5 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons 
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

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NEW YORK (8 - 7) at SEATTLE (9 - 7) - 7/3/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1997.
NEW YORK is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
 
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons 
SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons 
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons 

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MINNESOTA (8 - 8) at LOS ANGELES (10 - 5) - 7/3/2008, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in July games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
 
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-3 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons 
LOS ANGELES is 4-3 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons 
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Thursday WNBA Research
By IndianCowboy

Houston vs. Atlanta

It just continues to amaze me that the oddsmakers continue to give Atlanta some respect in the hope that they will beat some team and finally win a ballgame. But, the Dream continue to fail and are far better at covering on the road than at home it seems, After covering back to back games for a brief stint, the Dream miserably lost to the Mercury by 18. Houston comes off a disappointing road loss to Connecticut on the road in a ballgame they truly should have covered but missed the cover in a final shot, in fact, they were leading by 8 outright at the half catching 9 points only to completely fall apart. I don't see Houston necessarily doing that this game against the Dream and remember this team has won 6 of their last 8 ballgames and had covered 4 games in a row before that Connecticut game which should have been their 5th in a row. These 2 teams met earlier this year with the total going above 160 and the Dream falling inside a 10.5 spread. I just don't trust the Dream at this point, in fact, lean on the Comets but so do over 65% of the public as road chalk, as per the total, I lean on the over a bit but Houston can play sound defense when need be, so likely just staying away.

Sacramento vs. San Antonio

Sacramento beat this team by 9 earlier this year as the game went under, and comes off a nice win against Washington where they barely covered and New York as Sacramento's offense has been in sync as they have played 5 overs in a row. Sacramento has actually covered 4 of their last 5 but it seems the Silver Stars have covered 8 of their last 10, the only 2 games they have not covered is against Houston back to back ballgames in which they actually lost outright both times. I lean on Sacramento here to get it done again on the road, but the Silver Stars have played well at home and have covered 8 of 10 and it seems they pull it together for the win and cover against any team but the Comets. I hate laying the points to a solid road team such as the Monarchs of late.

New York vs. Seattle

There is a reason why Seattle, the once wnba champs are only favored by -6.5 at home here, that is because the Liberty can have one of their staple quarters and straight up put some points - look at what they did to the Sparks, down double-digits heading into the 4th quarter and then they dropped 30+ points in the 4th quarter which is HUGE for a wnba team to score that many points in one quarter. 60% of the public still favor the Storm though. New York did beat this team by 14 earlier this year at home so this is a big revenge game for Seattle as well. But each time New York wins a big game at home, they end up having a let down - take a look at the big win against Phoenix at home only to get drilled by 22 against Minny on the road. I wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle cover their 3rd straight at home today.

Minny vs. Sparks

I tell you what, I would not want to play the L.A. Sparks at this stage. After all, this is the team that was up by 11 going into the 4th quarter against the Liberty only to get outscored 38-16 (nearly 40 points for a wnba team in 1 quarter which is simply incredible) - and the end up losing by double-digits in a game they were up by 11 going into the 4th quarter. Unbelievable. Now, they face Minny a team whom they beat by 9 earlier this year, but obviously the Sparks, their coach nor their fans are in a good mood heading into this game. Minny does come off back to back losses however and they have revenge heading into this game. I really want to take the Sparks here as they are irritated off that loss, but Minny has lost 2 in a row and they did get up for the Shock earlier this year on the road and they will get up for the Sparks here as well, If anything I lean to the over a bit but likely staying away.

Wednesday MLB Research (Only American League to focus on moving trends)

Kansas City vs. Baltimore

I've never really been a fan of Kyle Davies, but I think the Royals pretty much told him its now or never for him as he underpreformed terribly from the Atlanta trade last year. Not that it worked out great for the Braves who ended up getting rid of Dotel anyway. So, both teams got essentially nothing, but the Royals stuck with Davies and he did give them 4 quality starts to start the year. However, he got roughed up against 2 nl teams in san fran and st. louis a bit of late and looks to rebound with friendly territory in American League teams. Olson had a solid start against Washington on the road in a bounce-back, still a lot of juice here on the Orioles pitcher who did win 6-5 against the Royals in his last start but then again, the Royals are likely to get a good bounce-back here from Davies and they do have revenge against Olson a bit, I think the Royals are a solid dog today. Davies is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA on the road and I think the Cards roughed him up a bit only because he beat them in one of his 4 quality starts earlier this year so they had a bit of a revenge, heck, the Royals got 8 hits in 5 1/3 inning from Olson last time around, I think the Royals can hang here.

Boston vs. New York

Here we go, the fun starts once again with the rivalry, as the Yankees come out to be a -120 favorite heading into this game, but remember, Lester had 4 straight quality starts prior to getting roughed up at Houston so expect a bounce-back here especially pitching against their rivals, Lester did give up 0 runs in 7 innings at Philly in his last road start as well, Pettitte has been rock solid in his last 4 starts giving up just 3 earned runs in 27 innings. I lean on the Red Sox here with Lester on the bounce-back as Pettitte is due to get hit hard soon but also the under as well. Seems like Boston is of solid value today - after all, getting an underdog at +120 on the edge of a coin flip is always something to look at. The under does look tempting.

Oakland vs. White Sox

I typically watch the A's very closely but it is tough to take them here against the White Sox given how well they are playing at home. Duch has pitched 7 straight quality starts and why not put him on the Cy Young radar? Is it because you've never heard of him or most people haven't, so? The guy has pitched stellar this year: he is 8-5 with a 1.91 ERA - if the A's could have more bats this would be even better, he is 2-4 with a 2.52 ERA on the road. Leave it to the A's to keep finding gems of pitchers like they did with Harden, Haren, Hudson etc... Vasquez has been rocked in his last 5 starts, but the White Sox have won 7 in a row, but the A's come off back to back losses so they will look to rebound here behind Duch. Vasquez has also given up 38 hits in 28 innings and roughly 3 walks per start in his last 5 starts, so that is roughly 53 runners on base over the last 28 innings, that says a lot. I like the A's value here today.

Detroit vs. Seattle

Verlander is 2-0 over his last 4 starts, beat Seattle once and then failed to win his last time against them this season as he was hit for 8 times in 7 innings, but he has pitched 5 straight quality starts and 6 of his last 7 have been quality, Silva has come back strong against San Diego on the road, but the Tigers love seeing Silva given that they have hit him for 14 runs in less than 5 innings in 2 starts. That is not a typo, the Tigers have given Silva in his 2 starts against them this year a 15.75 ERA and 95.45 ERA as Silva did not last past the 1st inning in his last start against them giving up 7 hits and 7 runs. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Silva show up big today with a chip on his shoulder with revenge avoiding not to get beat 3 times in a row to the Tigers in one season. Then again Silva has been inconsistent in 6 of his last 7 starts with Verlander having revenge against Seattle for his loss last time. Also, 67% of the public favors Detroit, I don't like doing run-line in particular road run-line, but that is my lean here, but out of principle, no thanks and plus, Detroit is a big public favorite today and I could easily see Silva showing up here.

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